WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS eMarketer’s Estimates for 2016–2020 JANUARY 2017 Corey McNair
Contributor: Oscar Orozco
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WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020 In 2017, there will be about 2.15 billion digital video viewers, representing 29.0% of the global population. Penetration lags in developing markets due to varying levels of infrastructure maturity. ■
eMarketer estimates the number of digital video viewers will climb by over 100 million each year through 2020, when it will surpass 2.50 billion. During that
Digital Video Viewers and Penetration Worldwide, 2016-2020 billions, % change and % of internet users
time, more than six out of 10 internet users globally will 2.15
watch at least one digital video per month. ■
2.28
2.51
2.40
1.98
The majority of new digital video viewers will come
60.8%
62.2%
62.8%
63.2%
63.4%
10.1%
8.2%
6.1%
5.4%
4.5%
2017
2018
2019
2020
from developing countries in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East and Africa, due to increased access to 3G, 4G and Wi-Fi and improved solutions for the bandwidth video requires. ■
Penetration is highest in North America, where more than two-thirds of the population will watch digital
2016
video in 2017. While Asia-Pacific and Latin America have higher total numbers of digital video viewers because of larger populations, a lack of infrastructure in some developing countries explains lower penetration rates. ■
Growth is leveling off in developed markets like North America and Western Europe. The initial surge in digital video viewership has passed, and most of those who
Digital video viewers
% of internet users
% change
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 www.eMarketer .com
220802
KEY STAT: Roughly 2.15 billion internet users worldwide will view at least one digital video per month in 2017, up nearly 75% from 1.22 billion in 2012. Viewership will continue to grow, reaching 2.51 billion by 2020.
want to watch digital video are already doing so. WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report includes eMarketer’s forecast for worldwide digital video viewers. The projections, which run through 2020, include breakouts by region and country. The full data set for this forecast can be found in this report’s accompanying spreadsheet.
eMarketer defines digital video viewers as internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month.
WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020
CONTENTS 2
Worldwide Digital Video Viewers: eMarketer’s Estimates for 2016–2020
3
Worldwide Overview
4
Asia-Pacific
5
Central and Eastern Europe
6
Latin America
7
Middle East and Africa
7
North America
8
Western Europe
9
Editorial and Production Contributors
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2
WORLDWIDE OVERVIEW Digital video viewership growth worldwide has been spurred by the general expansion of internet and mobile internet usage, faster mobile internet connections, and increased data and Wi-Fi availability across developing countries. eMarketer expects that about 29.0% of the world’s population will view digital video at least monthly in 2017, and that number will reach nearly a third by 2020. Digital Video Viewer Penetration Worldwide, 2016-2020 % of population 29.0%
30.5%
32.8%
31.8%
27.1%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 221423
www.eMarketer .com
eMarketer’s complete estimates for worldwide digital video viewers can be found in this report’s accompanying spreadsheet.
More than 62% of the world’s internet users will view digital video in 2017, up from 60.8% in 2016. Digital video viewership’s uptake has primarily occurred in developed markets such as the US, Canada and the UK, where internet infrastructure can meet the bandwidth demands of digital video. Strong internet speeds enable consumers to watch entire TV programs online through over-the-top (OTT) services and share videos via social media channels. eMarketer projects the share of global internet users who watch digital video will increase marginally to 63.4% in 2020. While this growth is small, the consumers who view video will spend more time watching content.
WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020
Digital video viewership worldwide has recorded double-digit increases annually since 2013, but 2017 will mark the first year where growth will fall to single-digit rates, at 8.2%. Developing markets such as India, Indonesia and the Middle East and Africa lag behind by this measure due to a lack of infrastructure that can provide access to mobile and household broadband. While internet users can go online and access social media, slower mobile internet speeds and expensive data plans have tended to limit video consumption. However, these markets will experience some of the fastest growth rates due primarily to the rise of more affordable data plans, faster internet speeds and improved Wi-Fi availability. Digital video viewership growth will remain steady, in part due to the increased availability of content created in local languages. The option to download videos will also spur some growth, as consumers seek alternatives to poor mobile connection streaming while on the go. The top video sources worldwide consist of OTT services like Hulu, Netflix and Vimeo and social media platforms Facebook and YouTube. Among the top players in China, where 569.0 million digital video viewers reside, are internet platform Sohu and video hosting site YouKu Tudou. In January 2016, Netflix expanded its service to 130 markets, bringing the total to 190 countries worldwide. And in November 2016, Netflix announced that viewers can now download videos to their devices for offline viewing. It remains to be seen whether other platforms will follow suit. Each country typically has second- and third-tier local video services that overlap in usage with the top platforms.
Behind the Numbers eMarketer’s forecasts and estimates are based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from research firms, government agencies, media firms and public companies, plus interviews with top executives at publishers, ad buyers and agencies. Data is weighted based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect the latest business developments, technology trends and economic changes.
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3
ASIA-PACIFIC With 1.10 billion digital video viewers in 2017, Asia-Pacific will account for more than half of the worldwide total. However, that number will represent only 27.0% of the total population in Asia-Pacific. eMarketer expects digital video viewers in Asia-Pacific will rise 10.3% this year and climb at a steady pace through the forecast period due to increased smartphone penetration and mobile broadband growth, along with faster data speeds. Digital Video Viewers and Penetration in Asia-Pacific, 2016-2020 billions, % change and % of internet users 1.34 1.26 1.18 1.10 1.00 56.8%
58.4%
58.9%
59.2%
59.4%
12.6%
10.3%
7.6%
6.7%
5.7%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2016
Digital video viewers
% of internet users
% change
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 220797
www.eMarketer .com
Asia-Pacific exhibits high video viewing penetration in mature markets such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. At least half of the population in each of these countries will view at least one digital video per month in 2017. Such countries already have high internet user penetration rates and support consumer access and demand for digital video. China will have 569.0 million digital video viewers in 2017 but will rank behind these countries in population penetration, at 41.5%. Large parts of China lag in access to household broadband and mobile. Still, the share of internet users who watch digital video is high, at 75.4%, as parts of the country have very developed infrastructure with fast internet speeds at affordable costs. This foundation has enabled social media to become ingrained in the culture, even in areas without the bandwidth to stream video.
WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020
As such, digital video in China lags behind social media penetration as one of the leading social platforms, Tencent’s WeChat, acts as a gateway for video consumption. However, video-on-demand (VOD) services are making headway, including iQiyi, an on-demand video streaming service that reported $1.5 billion in revenues for 2016 from video subscriptions, advertising and other sources. Total population penetration for digital video viewership across Asia-Pacific is lower than other regions worldwide due to countries with high population counts and low household broadband accessibility. India is a primary example. In a population of over 1.28 billion people, a little over a third are connected to the internet, and only 13.9% of the population will view digital video in 2017. In December 2016, Google announced that YouTube, one of the country’s leading platforms, would add 11 local languages to YouTube India’s homepage and trending section. There has also been traction in urban India, with consumers accessing Hotstar (part of the Star Network) for online TV streaming while on the go. Other digital TV platforms garnering the attention of advertisers and viewers include Sony LIV (part of the Sony Television Network) and Voot (part of Viacom 18). Digital Video Viewers in Asia-Pacific, by Country, 2016-2020 millions and % change 2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Digital video viewers (millions) China
530.4
569.0
602.3
634.5
662.9
India
149.7
178.1
201.0
222.7
244.1
Japan
67.0
68.4
69.4
70.2
70.9
Indonesia
66.6
75.9
85.5
94.1
101.1
South Korea
31.9
32.5
33.0
33.5
33.8
Australia
13.4
13.7
13.9
14.1
14.3
Other
139.0
162.7
179.0
194.7
208.3
Asia-Pacific
998.0
1,100.3
1,184.1
1,263.8
1,335.4
Digital video viewer growth (% change) India
35.8%
19.0%
12.8%
10.8%
9.6%
Indonesia
15.0%
13.9%
12.7%
10.1%
7.4%
China*
7.6%
7.3%
5.8%
5.4%
4.5%
Japan
3.8%
2.1%
1.5%
1.1%
1.0%
Australia
3.0%
2.3%
1.8%
1.5%
1.4%
South Korea
2.3%
1.8%
1.6%
1.3%
1.0%
Other
19.1%
17.1%
10.0%
8.8%
7.0%
Asia-Pacific
12.6%
10.3%
7.6%
6.7%
5.7%
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 221567
www.eMarketer .com
©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
4
Indonesia will also have low digital video penetration among the overall population, at 29.1% in 2017. However, when it comes to penetration among internet viewers, Indonesia will rank just ahead of Japan’s internet users, with 67.4% viewing digital video this year. This is due to consumers having fast mobile internet speeds and consuming large amounts of Facebook and YouTube content. Asia-Pacific will trail only the Middle East and Africa in digital video viewer growth over the forecast period. As infrastructure develops, eMarketer expects at least 5% gains each year through 2020. By then, digital video viewers in Asia-Pacific will surpass 1.33 billion.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE eMarketer estimates there will be 181.7 million digital video viewers in Central and Eastern Europe this year, a 6.3% increase from 2016. Russia will account for roughly 40% of total digital video viewership in the region. Digital Video Viewers and Penetration in Central & Eastern Europe, 2016-2020 millions, % change and % of internet users
171.0
69.6%
10.5%
2016
189.3
181.7
195.8
200.7
71.5%
72.4%
73.0%
73.8%
6.3%
4.2%
3.4%
2.5%
2017
2018
2019
2020
Digital video viewers
% change
% of internet users
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 221424
www.eMarketer .com
Even in developing markets, digital video has a sizable presence in Central and Eastern Europe. More than 42% of the population will view at least one digital video a month in 2017, and penetration among internet users will be 71.5%. Russia is a large driver of internet penetration: It leads all of Europe in digital video viewers, at 72.4 million this year. This is not due solely to its relatively large population, but also to strong video viewing among more than three-quarters of internet users. Russia’s top social platform, VK (formerly Vkontakte), spurred growth by heavily integrating video functionality, even before Facebook did. Digital video viewer penetration rates in Russia are high, so growth will fall to the low single digits through 2020, which will be a slower pace compared with the rest of the region. Future growth will likely come from an increasingly competitive and crowded market, including Mail.ru’s OTT platform Afisha.Mail.ru and expanding services, such as Netflix.
WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020
©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
5
LATIN AMERICA Latin America will have the second highest penetration rate of digital video viewers among internet users, eMarketer estimates. Nearly three-quarters of internet users in Latin America will view digital video this year.
Among countries in Latin America, Mexico has the fastest viewership growth rates. eMarketer estimates digital video viewers will grow by 9.2% in 2017 and 7.3% in 2018. Growth in the region will be attributed to more affordable smartphones, which will make video more accessible. eMarketer forecasts that Latin America will have over 300 million digital video viewers in 2020.
However, at 265.4 million viewers, only 42.5% of the population will view digital video in 2017. Digital Video Viewers in Latin America, by Country, 2016-2020 millions and % change 2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Digital video viewers (millions) Brazil
86.8
91.7
95.1
97.9
100.6
Mexico
55.4
60.5
64.9
68.8
71.2
Argentina
22.1
22.8
23.5
24.2
24.8
Other
84.1
90.3
96.2
101.7
106.1
248.4
265.4
279.7
292.7
302.8
Latin America
Digital video viewer growth (% change) Mexico Brazil Argentina Other Latin America
12.7%
9.2%
7.3%
6.0%
3.5%
7.3%
5.6%
3.7%
3.0%
2.8%
4.6%
3.4%
3.1%
3.0%
2.6%
11.3%
7.4%
6.5%
5.8%
4.3%
9.5%
6.8%
5.4%
4.6%
3.4%
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 221426
www.eMarketer .com
In general, high data costs and phones, slow internet speeds and a lack of Wi-Fi and/or mobile coverage in many areas will keep penetration low among the total population. Brazil will have the most digital video viewers in the region this year, at 91.7 million, but penetration among the total population will be just 44.2%. YouTube, Netflix and Globo are among the most popular video platforms in the country. In Argentina and Mexico, digital video viewer penetration rates among the total population will hover at around 50% this year. YouTube is one of the most popular video platforms for the 60.5 million digital video viewers in Mexico. Netflix has a strong presence as well, at 4.3 million subscribers, which is 5% of Netflix’s global subscriber base. There will be 22.8 million digital video viewers in Argentina in 2017, and as in Mexico, YouTube is the top video platform.
WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020
©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
6
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
The Middle East and Africa will see the fastest growth
North America has the highest digital video viewer
in digital video viewership through 2020, as more
penetration rate in the world. At nearly 245 million
people gain access to smartphones and faster mobile
digital video viewers, 80.8% of internet users in the
internet speeds. In 2017, eMarketer estimates, digital
region will watch digital video in 2017.
video viewers in the region will total 135.0 million. By 2020, that number will reach 173.3 million.
Digital Video Viewers in North America, by Country, 2016-2020 millions and % change
Digital Video Viewers and Penetration in the Middle East & Africa, 2016-2020 millions, % change and % of internet users 173.3 160.9 148.3
US Canada
2016
14.8% 2017
Digital video viewers
42.8%
43.7%
44.6%
9.8% 2018 % change
8.5% 2019
7.7% 2020
% of internet users
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 221428
2019
2020
215.1
221.8
227.5
232.1
235.9
22.5
23.1
23.6
24.1
24.4
237.6
244.9
251.1
256.2
260.3
US
3.9%
3.1%
2.6%
2.0%
1.6%
Canada
2.7%
2.7%
2.1%
1.9%
1.3%
North America
3.7%
3.1%
2.5%
2.0%
1.6%
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 221425
15.3%
2018
Digital video viewer growth (% change)
117.6
41.7%
2017
Digital video viewers (millions)
North America
135.0
39.0%
2016
www.eMarketer .com
Fewer than one in 10 people in the Middle East and Africa will watch digital video at least monthly this year. This is mainly due to the high cost of smartphones and data plans, as well as a lack of infrastructure that would allow more of the population access to the internet. Penetration is also low among internet users, at 41.7%, indicating that some internet connections in the region lack enough bandwidth to meet the demands of digital video. Growth in the region has been driven by people gaining internet access. eMarketer expects a 14.8% increase in digital video viewers in 2017 and a 9.8% jump in 2018.
WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020
www.eMarketer .com
The US will account for more than 90% of digital video viewers in North America, or 221.8 million people. Among the total population, more than two-thirds will watch digital video in 2017. The variety of video streaming options in the US is one reason for this high penetration rate. Subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services like Netflix, Amazon Prime and Hulu, and video hosting platforms like YouTube and Vimeo, deliver new content daily to viewers. With such high video saturation, growth is expected to remain in the low single digits through 2020. While platforms like Netflix, Amazon Prime and YouTube are introducing or already have the option to download video to view on the go, it won’t generate much additional growth—rather it will increase consumption among current viewers. The market in Canada is only slightly behind the US for digital video viewing penetration rates among internet users and the total population. With 23.1 million digital video viewers in 2017, total viewership in Canada is expected to climb to 24.4 million by 2020. Among the top video platforms, YouTube and Netflix are very popular in the country, while Amazon Prime launched in December 2016 as well.
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7
WESTERN EUROPE Digital video viewer penetration rates in Western Europe vary across the region, but they are generally strong. eMarketer forecasts that digital video viewers in Western Europe will reach 219.0 million in 2017, representing over half the total population. Digital Video Viewers and Penetration in Western Europe, 2016-2020 millions, % change and % of internet users 211.6 66.9%
225.0
230.2
234.7
219.0 68.2%
69.1%
69.9%
70.7%
According to research firm Parks Associates, Spain has one of the highest internet-only household rates in Europe, implying that consumers there may be more likely to pay for digital video services than they would for pay TV subscriptions. Yomvi, a SVOD service bundled with pay TV provider Movistar+, has seen some traction. In addition, Netflix arrived at the end of 2015, and HBO launched HBO España in November 2016. Italy will have 25.7 million digital video viewers this year, eMarketer estimates, and the lowest population penetration rate in Western Europe, at 41.4%. This is primarily due to two factors: Italy’s more rural character, and internet speeds that are slower than most of the region as a result of low government investment. Italy’s population tends to skew older as well. Digital Video Viewers in Western Europe, by Country, 2016-2020 millions and % change 2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Digital video viewers (millions)
4.3% 2016
3.5% 2017
Digital video viewers
2.8% 2018
2.3% 2019
% of internet users
2.0% 2020 % change
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 220799
www.eMarketer .com
The two largest markets for digital video viewers will be the UK and Germany, with 42.8 million and 40.4 million viewers, respectively. The UK is a mature market, with nearly two-thirds of the population viewing digital video monthly. Germany’s rate is lower, with 50.1% of the population viewing video in 2017. Germany, France and Spain generally index lower in social media usage compared with the rest of the region, which limits potential exposure to digital video. France and Spain will have 32.2 million and 23.1 million digital video viewers, respectively, in 2017, amounting to a population penetration rate of around 50%. Consumers in France, Germany, Italy and Spain still tend to be interested in viewing linear TV content. Spain in particular is geared toward free-to-air broadcast programming, with consumers even more likely to have broadband access than pay TV. However, eMarketer expects Spain will have the fastest digital video viewer growth rate in Western Europe in 2017, increasing 4.2%.
WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020
UK
41.3
42.8
43.9
44.7
45.6
Germany
39.0
40.4
41.3
42.1
42.8
France
31.2
32.2
33.2
34.0
34.7
Italy
24.7
25.7
26.6
27.4
28.1
Spain
22.1
23.1
24.0
24.8
25.5
Netherlands
10.8
11.0
11.2
11.4
11.5
Sweden
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
Denmark
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
Norway
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
Finland
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5
Other Western Europe
26.2
27.1
27.9
28.5
29.0
211.6
219.0
225.0
230.2
234.7
Digital video viewer growth (% change) Spain
5.5%
4.2%
3.9%
3.4%
3.0%
Germany
4.9%
3.6%
2.3%
1.9%
1.6%
UK
4.5%
3.5%
2.6%
2.0%
1.8%
France
4.4%
3.5%
3.0%
2.3%
2.1%
Italy
4.4%
3.9%
3.4%
3.1%
2.7%
Denmark
3.3%
2.7%
2.2%
1.9%
1.3%
Sweden
3.3%
2.1%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
Finland
3.2%
2.9%
2.4%
2.1%
1.7%
Norway
3.1%
2.5%
2.2%
1.7%
1.5%
Netherlands
2.4%
2.0%
1.7%
1.5%
1.0%
Other
3.8%
3.6%
2.7%
2.3%
1.8%
Western Europe
4.3%
3.5%
2.8%
2.3%
2.0%
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video content via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016 221427
www.eMarketer .com
©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
8
The Nordic countries—Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden—have seen large growth in digital video viewership because of high internet penetration and fast connection speeds. The prevalence of knowing English in these countries correlates heavily with high video viewing, as much of the most popular online video content is in English. Each of these countries will have a roughly 70% penetration rate among internet users for digital video viewing this year. That said, the population in these countries is small and together make up just a fraction of the total digital video viewing audience in Western Europe. The Netherlands will rank second only to Norway in digital video viewing penetration among the population (64.6%) and internet users (74.5%) in Nordic countries this year. The 11.0 million digital video viewers in the Netherlands tend to stream video more than average consumers in Western Europe. With such high penetration rates, eMarketer projects the Netherlands will have one of the slowest growth rates in Western Europe during the forecast period.
EDITORIAL AND PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS Cliff Annicelli Michael Balletti Joanne DiCamillo Dana Hill Eden Kelley Stephanie Meyer Kris Oser Heather Price John Rambow Allie Smith
Managing Editor, Reports Copy Editor Senior Production Artist Director of Production Chart Editor Senior Production Artist Deputy Editorial Director Senior Copy Editor Executive Editor, Reports Director of Charts
Leaving aside North America, eMarketer forecasts Western Europe will have the slowest digital video viewership growth in 2017, at 3.5%. This is partly due to the internet populations in France, Germany and Spain, who still prefer viewing free linear TV rather than paying to access digital video.
WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020
©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
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