Transportation Planning - Workshop by MIT
Short Description
Urban Transportation planning MIT course...
Description
Workshop: Scenarios, Communication, Mindmaps …
Urban Transportation Planning
MIT Course 1.252j/11.540j
Fall 2006
Mikel Murga, MIT Lecturer and Research Associate
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scope
Workshop 1
Introduction from Meyer and Miller Forecasting … and Scenarios Demographics as an example Communication tools Working with Mindmaps
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Introduction from Meyer and Miller … 1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The world moves into the future as a result of decisions (or the lack of decisions), not as result of plans All decisions involve the evaluation of alternative images of the future, and the selection of the most highly valued of feasible alternatives Evaluation and decisions are influenced by the degree of uncertainty associated with expected consequences The products of planning should be designed to increase the chance of making better decisions The result of planning is some form of communication with decision makers Chapter 1, pages 2-3
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Models and Forecasting…
Forecasting:
Workshop 1
Short term extrapolation:The future on the basis of the past Applicable to slow incremental change We tend to believe that today’s status quo will continue for ever We often ignore …
Forecasting Scenarios
uncertainty
predictability
Time into the future 4
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
…And Scenarios
Workshop 1
A conceptual description of the future based on cause and effect Invent and analyze several stories of equally plausible futures to bring forward surprises and unexpected leaps of understanding Goal is not to create a future, nor to choose the most probable one, but to make strategic decisions that will be sound (or robust) under all plausible futures 5
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios "Scenarios transform information into perceptions... It is a creative experience that generates an 'Aha!' ... and leads to strategic insights beyond the mind's previous reach." Pierre Wack GBN
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Reading on Scenarios “The Art of the Long View” by Peter Schwartz “Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation” by Kees van der Heijden
Both authors work for the Global Business Network (www.gbn.com) and come from the Shell Planning Group Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios: Why?
History is a continuum of pattern breaks We react to uncertainty through denial (that is why a quantitative model is so reassuring!)
Mental models, and myths, control what you do and keep you from raising the right questions We cannot predict the future with certainty By providing alternative images of the future:
Workshop 1
We go from facts into perceptions, and, Open multiple perspectives
Approach: Suspend disbelief in a story long
enough to appreciate its potential impact
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios: How?
Workshop 1
Examine the environment in which your actions will take place and see how those actions will fit in the prevailing forces, trends, attitudes and influences Identify driving forces and critical uncertainties Challenge prevailing mental modes and be creative about the future of critical variables Rehearse the implications 9
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios: Stages 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Workshop 1
Identify focal issue or decision (ie Global warming) Identify driving forces in the local environment Identify driving forces in the macro environment Rank the importance and uncertainty of each Select scenario logics (so as to tell a story) Flesh-out the scenario in terms of driving forces Analyze implications Define leading indicators for monitoring 10
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios: Rules
Goal:
Required decisions under each scenario? Vulnerabilities? Can we control the key driving forces?…
Good scenarios should be plausible, but also surprising by breaking old stereotypes Do not assign probabilities to each scenario… … But give a name to each scenario A total of 3-4 scenarios: Not just two extremes plus a probable one. Good to have a wildcard
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Demographics as an example CANADA
Fertility rate:
Birth rate:
Avg no. of children
born to women over
their lifetime
Total no of births
divided by the size of
the population
Canada claims a low
fertility rate (1.7) but
a high birth rate
Female
80
60 Age
Male
40
20
0 300
200
100
0
100
200
300
From:Boom, Bust and Echo by Prof Foot
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Population in Thousands Canada's Population Pyramids, 1996 Workshop 1
Figure by MIT OCW.
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Demographics:
What do you make of this?
Pirámide de Población 1981 - Población Ocupada 1981 (C.A.V) >=75 70-75
Mujer Ocupada
65-70
Pirámide de Población 1996 - Población Ocupada 1996 (C.A.V)
Hombre Ocupado
60-65
Mujer
55-60
Hombre
>=75 70-75
50-55 45-50
65-70
40-45
60-65
35-40 25-30
50-55
20-25
45-50
15-20 10-15
40-45
5-10
35-40
0-5 -80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
Hombre Ocupado Mujer Hombre
55-60
30-35
-100000
Mujer Ocupada
30-35 0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
25-30 20-25 15-20
Pirámide de Población 1986 - Población Ocupada 1986 (C.A.V)
10-15
>=75 70-75
5-10
Mujer Ocupada
65-70
0-5
Hombre Ocupado
60-65
Mujer Hombre
55-60
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
50-55 45-50 40-45 35-40 30-35
Pirámide de Población 2001 - Población Ocupada 2001 (C.A.V)
25-30 20-25
>=75
15-20 10-15
70-75
5-10
65-70
Mujer Ocupada Hombre Ocupado
0-5 -100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
60-65
100000
Mujer Hombre
55-60 50-55 45-50
Pirámide de Población 1991 - Población Ocupada 1991 (C.A.V)
40-45
>=75 70-75
35-40
Mujer Ocupada Hombre Ocupado
65-70 60-65
30-35
Mujer Hombre
55-60
25-30 20-25
50-55 45-50
15-20
40-45 35-40
10-15
30-35
5-10
25-30
0-5
20-25 15-20
-100000
10-15
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
5-10
Workshop 1
0-5 -100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Demographics
Is age a good predictor for:
Real estate? Transit use?
2.50
Transit Drive
2.00
1.50
Use of hard drugs? 1.00
If age is a good predictor, then:
Establish number of
people in each age group
0.50
0.00 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ Age Note: Statistics are for 1986.
Define probability for
each age group, of participation in a given behavior or activity
Workshop 1
Average Daily Trips per Person, Greater Toronto Area Figure by MIT OCW.
A 19 yr old has little money but plenty of time to wait for the bus
From:Boom, Bust and Echo by Prof Foot
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Demographics
According to Professor David K. Foot (“Boom, Bust and Echo”), future scenarios entail some certainty: In 10 yrs, we will all be 10 yrs older Demographics, not only predictable, but inevitable: The most powerful, yet underutilized
tool, to understand the past and foretell the future
Age is a good predictor of behavior… and therefore, a good forecasting tool
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Communication Tools
Transportation Policy depends to a great extent on two-way communications:
But impact of a message is based on:
Workshop 1
Policy analysts ÕÖ elected officials
Elected officials ÕÖ other politicians
Elected officials ÕÖ mass media
Public at large ÕÖ elected officials
…………………. ÕÖ ………………….
words (7%), how words are said (38%), and, non verbal clues (55%) 16
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Communication Tools learned
Workshop 1
Listening
1st
Speaking
2nd
Reading
3rd
Writing
4th
used
taught
Most Least (45%) Next most Next least (30%) Next least Next most (16%) Least (9%) Most
Listening Courses? Toastmasters? Speed reading?…
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Communication Tools “The Visual Display of Quantitative Information” by Edward R. Tufte plus the two follow-up books – a must-read reference Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Communication Tools
How Do you Visualize Change??? Remember that simulations could be critical Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Other tools of the trade
Workshop 1
Creativity: Lateral thinking, to thinkout-of-the-box, thinkertoys…
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Out-of-the-box thinkers
Edward de Bono:
Michael Michalko:
Thinking Tools Six thinking hats Lateral Thinking Cracking Creativity ThinkerToys
Many others
Workshop 1
The intelligence trap The Everest effect Plus.Minus.Interesting. C.A.F. consider all factors O.P.V. Other people view To look for Alternatives – beyond the obvious Analyze Consequences Problem Solving and Lateral Thinking Provocations 22
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping See “MindMapping” by Tony Buzan et al
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping You see what you know and where the gaps are Clears your mind of mental clutter It works well for group brainstorming
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping A whole-brain alternative to linear thinking Retain both the overall picture and the details Promote associations
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping You see what you know and where the gaps are Clears your mind of mental clutter It works well for group brainstorming
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping
Workshop 1
Let us do a joint MindMap
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mind-Mapping
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mind-Mapping
Workshop 1
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mind-Mapping
Workshop 1
www.mindjet.com
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