Trading in Betfair Betting Exchange Sports

Trading in Betfair Betting Exchange

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Contents Trading in Betfair Betting Exchange............................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 3 Before You Start ............................................................................................................. 5 Understanding the Odds ......................................................................................... 5 Lay Betting and Betting Exchange.................................................................................. 7 Betting Exchange .................................................................................................... 8 Laying ...................................................................................................................... 7 Singing-up at Betfair ...................................................................................................... 9 How to Use Betfair ....................................................................................................... 11 Trading Explaned.......................................................................................................... 16 Golden Rules of Bet Trading ........................................................................................ 19 Football Trading ........................................................................................................... 21 Lay the Draw ......................................................................................................... 24 Tennis Trading .............................................................................................................. 25 Back Favourite when Set Down ............................................................................ 27 Pre-Race Scalping in Horse racing................................................................................ 30 Trading Software .......................................................................................................... 31 AGT Pro ................................................................................................................. 31

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Introduction Sports trading is a great way to get extra or full-time income without even stepping foot out of own home. This e-book covers all bet trading aspects and after you read it you’ll know how to trade at biggest and most popular betting exchange – www.betfair.com. Bet trading is similar to financial trading but instead of selling and buying currency, stocks or bonds traders trade bets. Also betting exchanges are used instead of regular bookmakers. Traders place two kinds of bets:  

Back - For something to come true, these bets are offered by every bookie; Lay - Against something to come true. This type of bet can be placed only at betting exchange.

By placing these two bets traders guarantee only profit and no lose situation, just like in financial trading. So how does sports bet trading is different if compared to financial trading and regular betting? Most significant advantages of bet trading over forex and other financial market trading:  

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Faster markets – On average bet trading markets last several hours or even minutes; Lesser competition – financial markets are several decades old, and competition is huge. Betfair was founded in 2000 and gained popularity only few years later; Watch your favourite sports event live, trade and profit in the same time – isn’t that great?

Most significant advantages of bet trading over regular betting:   

Possibility to profit on every outcome; Lesser risk; More control – trade out at any time to profit on every outcome or if needed to cut off bigger loses.

Most popular and biggest betting exchange is Betfair, which was also the first betting exchange in the world, where people can place Back and Lay bets against each other and therefore trade.

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As there is no middlemen(i.e. bookmaker or totalizator) between bettors it’s possible to get higher odds in betting exchanges than in other sportsbooks. But keep in mind that betting exchange takes small commission from winnings.

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Before You Start To be successful at Betfair trading it’s important to understand how bets themselves works – what does numbers attached to bets mean, what is difference between back and lay bet. If you understand how odds and lay betting work you can skip this chapter.

Understanding the Odds Newcomer can get confused by odds as he sees a lot of different numbers and he doesn’t have a clue what do they all mean. Firstly you should know that odds are representing value and chances of event to come true. Imagine that you are playing Russian roulette. Your chances of getting shot are only 16.66%( 100%/6=16.666…% ) because only one bullet is loaded instead of six. If all six bullets were loaded chances would be 100%. If 3 bullets were loaded your chances to get or not to get shot would be 50%. In betting it’s similar only you are staying alive! A team which most likely are going to win will be offered at lower value than other team and that means you’ll win less if favourite team wins but unfortunately you can lose your whole bet if favourite loses. To get things more clear let’s take an example - you bet on highly favourite soccer team with stake of 100$. If favourite team wins the match you get 20$, if team loses you lose your whole 100$ bet. But if you bet on the underdog or on the draw you can win more than your starting bet. For example, with bet of 100$ you can win 500$. But remember that chances of underdog to win are much lower. In this example it’s 20%. Average wining rate for underdog will be only one game from five. By understanding given odds you can understand what possibility and chances bookmaker or other traders gives for your chosen event to come true. It’s important to remember and use this to your advantage – compare given odds to ones you think should be right in given situation. There are 3 most popular means of quoting odds – Fractional odds(e.g. 1/3, 1/2, 5/2), Decimal odds(e.g. 1.33, 2.5, 1.8), Moneyline odds(e.g. +100, -200, +200). We will use decimal odds as these are most popular and easiest in the trading.

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Decimal odds Mostly used in Europe, Canada and Australia. First difference from Fractional odds is that bettor needs to part with his stake in order to bet. Your stake will be calculated in winnings. Equal (50%) chances for both teams to win are represented as 2.0 in decimal odds.

To calculate potential winnings simply multiply your stake with decimal odds. As a result you’ll get your winnings and your stake. For example, you have a bank of 100$ and you bet all in (100$) at odds of 1.2. Your potential bank after positive result are 120$(100$ bet + 20$ money won). Decimal odds are being used in Betting Exchanges as they are easier and more popular than other formats. To convert decimal odds to probability percentage divide 100 with n, where n are the odds. Examples: Odds of 5.0: 100 / 5 = 20% Odds of 1.5: 100 / 1.5 = 66.666...%

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Lay Betting and Betting Exchange Key in trading is a possibility to lay. Regular bookmakers don’t offer this option, it’s possible to place only regular bets i.e. for something to come true. For example, “team A” to win. In bet trading these are called Back bets. Opposite to Backing is Laying. In regular bookies lay bet is placed by bookie itself. To be able to trade you need to be able to Back and Lay. And this is where betting exchange comes into play as laying is possible only at betting exchanges such as Betfair or Betdaq.

Laying

To understand trading you need to understand laying. So what is laying and how it’s different from backing? When you BACK something to calculate your possible winnings you need to multiply your stake with the odds. E.g. odds for team A to win are 1.8 you back it with $100 and your possible profit is $80(100 * 1.8 – 100 = 80). To lay a bet is to back something not to happen. Laying is the same as backing only reverse. You always win the same amount as your stake. But if you lose - amount of lost money depends on odds. So if odds are 1.8 and stake is 100$ you can lose 80$ and win 100$. More examples: If you lay low odds as 1.05 you only risk losing $5 but you can win $100. If you lay at odds of 5.5 you risk losing $450, but win - $100. You can lay almost in any sport, but you should remember – more outcomes mean higher odds, higher odds means higher liability. Many outcomes can be found in horse racing and correct score markets. As said before Lay betting gives opportunity to trade. Back with higher odds and lay with lower and as a result you’ll get all profit and no lose situation. We can say that Back and Lay are synonyms to Sell and Buy.

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Betting Exchange First difference if betting exchange is compared to regular bookmaker is that bets are placed against other bettors not against exchange or bookie. To every bet you place someone places opposite one. If Lay bet is placed, to other exchange users it will show up as back bet and viceversa. You can even say that by placing lay bet you take a role of a bookmaker. Another advantage is that you can offer your own odds or take odds already offered by other exchange users. Almost always there are back and lay bets offered. In following examples Betfair Betting Exchange will be used. Betfair is most popular betting exchange and it has markets with most liquidity.

Image above shows football(or soccer if you prefer) match between Befica and Liverpool. You can see that here is £1340 offered to BACK Benfica at odds of 2.46. It means that other bettors are waiting to get their LAY bets matched at 2.46. If someone places £40 BACK bet at odds of 2.46 then money shown at 2.46 will change from £1340 to £1300. (To place a bet you just have to press on square with odds you want to use, after that you can accept given odds or offer you own, but more on this later!) Another example: If you LAY Benfica at odds of 2.46 then money showed at 2.46 will change from £1340 to £1380 and your bet WILL NOT be matched. You will need to wait till someone BACKs Benfica to get your bet matched. Also it’s same with LAY bets, if LAY bet is placed at odds of 2.48, then you’ll see that money shown at 2.48 will change to a lesser amount, if someone Backs at 2.48 then opposite will happen – amount of money will change to bigger, also it will not be matched, you will need to wait till someone lays at 2.48. You may wonder, how does betting exchanges profit if bettors bet against each other? Answer is simple: There is 5% commission to all winning bets.

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Singing-up at Betfair Firstly, to trade at Betfair you have to register there. If you worry about how safe it is – then don’t. Betfair is used by thousands of users every day and no single security problem have occurred. Registration 1. Go to Betfair website(It’s recommended to use this link in order to receive free bet) 2. When you open the link Betfair free bet promotion comes up. Maximal amount of free bet is €30 or £25. Amount like this is fully sufficient for beginner trader. How does Free Bet work: Deposit and bet with stake of €30 or £25 and if a bet loses Betfair will credit your loses back, up to €30 or £25(same as lost stake). Free bet offer is available only for first bet placed within 21 days of account registration. To receive free bet be sure to enter AFF025 code. 3. Press “Claim Now” and fill all required fields. Be sure to fill following field in order to qualify for Free Bet offer:

Press “Agree and open account” 4. Now place a €30/£25 bet. If you win – your starting capital is increased, if not – you’ll get your money back in 48 hours of the bet being settled. 5. Before you can withdraw money from Betfair you have to confirm your identity. You can do it by going to -> Betfair website -> Login with your username & password -> My account (top right corner) -> My profile -> upload personal documents using our secure service. Set „I would like to” to “confirm my age” Scan and upload one of the following:    

Passport Driving Licence National Identification (photographic) Citizenship Certificate

Tell Betfair what document you’re sending in supporting comments box. If credit card will be used to deposit and withdraw money it should be confirmed too. In field „I would like to” choose “prove credit card ownership”. And scan and send one of the following: 9

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

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A scan or photo of your credit card or debit card registered on your Betfair account (front only). Before you send us your scanned card, ensure that you have blanked out the card number, leaving only the last four digits visible. Account Statement of a Betfair-registered credit or debit card (less then 3 months old). Before you send us your scanned statement, ensure that you have blanked out the card number, leaving only the last four digits visible. Bank Statement with a Betfair transaction or the number of a Betfair registered card visible on it (less than 3 months old)

“What if” Be sure to enable “What if” option. It shows what will happen to your profit and loses if unplaced bets were matched.

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How to Use Betfair Finding needed match, race or game in Betfair is very easy. To find specific match follow these steps: 1. Open Betfair webpage. 2. Press “Sports”. List of sports will appear at the left side. 3. Choose type of a sport and the league. I choose football and German “Bundesliga” 4. Select match and market type. I choose “St Pauli v Kaiserslautern” match and “Match Odds” market:

There are some useful buttons which are quite self-evident but I’ll describe them anyway: Refresh – when you press it, all market data gets refreshed. If you don’t – market is refreshed automatically every 30 seconds. In-play – a market will be offered for live trading. ( yet - selected match is going in-play)

- selected match hasn’t started

Form Stats – opens new form with team stats and previous meetings. To bet, simply click on corresponding field – blue or pink. When you do that new window will open, where you have to enter stake and if you want – your own odds, but then you’ll have to wait until someone accepts them. For example, if lay The Draw with lower odds than offered (3.65, 3.6, 3.55, 3.50, and so on) it’s possible that you’ll have to wait for a long time before it gets matched. If a goal is scored at the start of the match, then odds will jump up and it’s very likely that your bet will stay unmatched for whole match. 11

In this example I lay with stake of £30

Bet won’t be accepted and matched instantly when “Place Bets” is clicked. This happen because Betfair enforces few seconds delay time in between when bet is matched and submitted. This is done with aim of preventing unfair advantage of traders who trade from stadium, hall or field where sports event is taking place. Unmatched bets can be cancelled instantly. When bet is matched you can see possible profit and loses:

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Active bets are shown at “My bets” tab:

You can see my first bet there. I’ll be using Lay the Draw system(we’ll return to it later) to get profit on all outcomes. In this match first goal was scored in first minutes and odds for draw jumped to 4.6. To get profit on all outcomes I have to place smaller back bet. In this case I back with stake of £24.7 and profit is ensured on every outcome:

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Unmatched bets As previously mentioned you can offer your own odds to the market. If you put lower odds than offered, most likely your bet will not get matched as there are more lucrative odds on the market if compared to yours for other traders to accept. If bet isn’t matched message will appear:

Also unmatched bets are shown at “My Bets” tab. In case you placed many bets use this tab to not lose track of them.

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A bet can be cancelled by clicking on

or “Cancel all unmatched”

To view all bets in all markets go to “My account” -> “Current Bets”

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Trading Explained Firstly, in sports trading unlike in regular betting traders place many bets with aim to guarantee profit on all outcomes – only profit and no lose situation. Aim is to BACK at the higher price and LAY at lower so a trader ends up earning on all possible outcomes and eliminates any possibility to lose.

Picture above shows horse racing. You can see that two bets are placed – Back and Lay. Also whichever horse wins profit is guaranteed. There isn’t any possibility for loses. Finding the value and accurate prediction of odds movement is a key to profitable bet trading. Odds movement is affected by many different factors. It’s possible to trade before the match and also in-play. Price movement before the match can be affected by many different factors such as popularity of team, player injuries, motivation, etc. In-play price movement can be affected by previous factors mentioned but generally it’s affected by what is happening in the match. For things to be clearer and how trading works I’ll give some examples. First example will be based on Football (soccer) match. E.g. In the match team A scores goal and odds drops from 2.4 to 1.6 for team A to win, so if you backed team A at 2.4 for $100 then if team A wins you win $140, if B team wins or it’s draw you lose $100. Just like in regular betting. Now trading aspect comes in. You lay team A after the first gaol at 1.6(remember odds dropped after 1. Goal) for $100, if team A wins you lose $60 of your LAY bet, if draw or team B wins it’s +$100(we are calculating lay bet only). Now we count both bets together (Back and Lay), and you win $80 if team A wins (140+ (-60) = 80) if it’s either draw or team B wins you lose nothing (-100 + 100 = 0)!

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Little table to understand this better: Team A wins: $140 + (-$60) = $80 Team B wins: -$100 +$100 = $0 Draw: -$100 +$100 = $0 (blue – your possible win/lose after 1. bet || red – your possible win/lose of your 2. bet || green – you possible win/lose after 2. bet and after the game if you are not betting anymore.) If after the goal it looks like team B will score back you can Lay with larger bet so that you win on all outcomes. I strongly recommend you doing so because as you know in sport anything can happen. Now I’ll put this in the example: It’s the same odds only LAY bet is larger! As previously you backed team A at 2.4 with $100 and now odds are 1.6 after the first goal. Now you lay with $150 your liability is $90(1.6 * 150 – 1), if team A wins you lose -$90, if not you win +$150 taking in account only Lay bet. End result will be like this: Team A wins: $140 + (-$90) = +$50 Team B wins: -$100 +$150 = +$50 Draw: -$100 + $150 = +$50 Both examples apply to other sports as well. By following examples above you can trade on any sport. Most popular sports for trading are Horse racing, Soccer and Tennis. In Horse racing in-play price movement will depend on horse position in the track. Horse racing markets are fastest ones. Soccer markets are ones of the slowest as soccer game goes for 90+ minutes and mostly price moves only when goals are scored. In a tennis match price movement depends on the games, points, breaks. In tennis markets price of bets can go up and down many times, also tennis markets are more active than soccer markets, as price movement is affected by every point.

Picture above shows typical soccer graph after the first goal. The goal is scored and odds drop from around 2.0 to 1.28. 17

This graph shows ATP tennis match movement odds. It’s affected by points and breaks. If you’re a beginner in sports bet trading I strongly suggest you to start with small stakes. There is no point of losing huge money. Once you gain more confidence you can consider increasing your stakes.

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Golden Rules of Bet Trading There are several trading rules which are important for every trader if he aims to achieve success with bet trading. Control You should always be in control of your trading. Execute your trades accordingly to your plan. Don’t act impulsively on feelings of fear to lose and greed. Losing your control will lead you to losing money. Taking responsibility Successful traders take responsibility for winning bets and as well for losing bets. If you encounter loss don’t blame anyone else – markets, some tip, advice, boss, wife or kids – but evaluate whether your reasoning for the trade was correct. And if not think what needs to be improved in your trading. Psychology Psychology is important part of trading. Success of trading is in your mind. Don’t trade when you feel tired or even not sober. It’s important to have a clear mind to make right decisions! If you encountered loses take a day off if needed and relax, then start next trade with fresh head. Edge To be a winner you need an edge. It can be achieved by research, technical analysis, system that defines trading rules such as entry and exit points. Losers have no edge and often no system or a losing system that they use anyway. Methods that suit you Use trading methods that suit you. Choose most suitable for you according to your time, resources, attitude toward risk and to personal views. If you’ll use system that isn’t suitable for you then you’ll lose in a long term. Risk and reward Always take in account risk and reward. Value probability and reward of trade. Some trades have high probability but little reward if trade is successful. Other trades have low probability but again huge reward if successful. Understanding risks and rewards of your trades is crucial!

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Money management Always stick to your staking plan. Don’t change it when you experienced losing trade to get loses back. Make changes accordingly to your bank not to results of trades. Don’t get greedy and stick to your staking strategy! Exit strategy Always define an exit point these are just as important as entry points. Before entering market set yourself an stop loss and profit target, this should be done for every trade. Of course you can change, adopt and improve exit points to trading strategy later one. If a trade goes wrong way, don’t wait for a market to change direction but exit it accordingly to definition in your strategy. Write your plans and strategy Write your plans regarding budget, target, trading rules, plans and other important stuff. Think of trading as a business and written plan as a business plan. Cover every important aspect of your trading! Monitor your performance Always monitor your performance and keep records of loses and wins. You can use this data to analyze mistakes and improve your trading. If you discover that things are not going well look how to improve your trading and minimize mistakes. It’s easier to read these tips than follow them, but they are very important to successful trading, so always keep them in mind!

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Football Trading Usually a football match provides slow market and there is plenty of time to decide your next trading move. Rapid odd movement is triggered only by goals. Most popular trading markets for football trading are Match odds markets, but still it’s possible to trade on Over/Under markets and Correct Score markets too. Whichever market you choose most likely odds will move slowly in one direction and then after a goal is scored all markets will get suspend for some seconds. When a market is opened odds will change position to a much higher or lower. Match odds markets This market is most popular. In football matches you’ll see odds drop for a team which scores a goal. Odds for opponent team and the draw(not always) will rise. If strong favourite team (around 1.3) scores then of course odds for favourite team will drop and odds for draw and underdog team will rise drastically. But if an underdog scores odds for favourite team can rise to around 2.0 and other team can still be offered at higher odds and odds for the draw will most likely drop, as it’s likely that a favourite will score back. Amount by which odds rise can be affected by factors such as if teams usually score many goals or not, if teams are good at defence or offense. Movement of odds are always notable and that allows traders to make profitable trades. Below are some charts to illustrate odd movement better.

Draw odds after favourite scores first goal.

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Favourite team loses a goal.

Favourite team scores two goals. Over/Under markets Over/Under markets are popular for trading too. First difference from Match odds markets is that odds will jump only one way if a goal is scored. This market is more active than match odds market. As example we’ll take over/under 2.5 goals market, usually it’s most active of all over/under markets. Odds for under 2.5 goals market will continuously drop as match goes until a goal is scored. Odds will jump to a higher point when one of the teams scores. Amount by which odds move can be affected by factors such as if teams are high or low scoring on average, time in which goal is scored(if it’s at the beginning of match odds will move more), how many goals there are scored already. This can be referred to other over/under markets as well but odds will be different accordingly to different markets. For example, in over/under 4.5 market odds for 22

Under 4.5 Goals at the start and possibly whole match will be very low but in over/under 1.5 market odds for Under 1.5 Goals usually are high as probability for one goal in the whole match is relatively small. Below are some charts to illustrate odds movement better.

In graphs above you see typical match where only one goal is scored in middle of match. These are 2.5 markets. Correct Score markets Correct score markets are less popular than two previously mentioned ones and therefore liquidity in correct score markets are lower. In Correct Score there are many markets and because of that odds for every selection are high. Movement of odds depends from selection and time when goals are scored in the match. For example, if a goal is scored in first half odds will drop for correct scores like 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 and other higher too. But odds for scores like 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, tend to

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come down as the match goes if goals aren’t scored. Of course in later stages of the match odds for 1-0 and 0-1 will rise too.

Lay the Draw Lay the Draw is most popular trading system for soccer trading. Although years back it was more profitable than it is now, nevertheless it’s still possible to be profitable with this bet trading system. Basically it’s very simple but adjustable to your likings. It consists of two basic steps: 1) Lay the draw You need to choose a soccer match where you think a goal will be scored. Chosen match should be without strict favourite. Lay the draw. 2) Wait for a Goal and Back the Draw Once goal is scored odds for Draw will go up. Back the draw and end up with all green (winnings on all results). To be successful at Lay The Draw system you need to have a good selection of matches. You would want to choose teams that score and lose many goals. You can look at over/under 2.5 market to see what other bettors think. If odds for over 2.5 are lower than odds for under 2.5 goals, then the match should have enough goals. Of course when selecting soccer matches for LTD trading consider which players will play, how important the match is, is there injured players and how important they are, is the team motivated and so on. Another thing worth keeping in mind - don’t bet on matches with big favourites as draw odds can go down as market is waiting for favourite team to score back. 0-0 Basically you should avoid football matches where possibility of having result of 0-0 is higher than in other matches. But still sooner or later there will be a match with 00 in your selections. At some time in a match you can back 0-0 to ensure that you will not lose if score stays 0-0 till the end of the match. Also you should think about exit strategy, but there isn’t clear definition of exit point. You can leave the game if no goals are scored at 70-85 minutes and lose less than at the end of match if score is still 0-0. But at the other hand there are many examples where team scores in the last minutes even in 90+. So if you really trust in your selections you can wait till the match ends without any exit point. Odds will go up much higher if a goal is scored at 24

the end of the match not at the beginning. That means that your profit will be higher from goals near the end of a football match. Laying the draw after the first period if score is still 0-0 is also an option. I strongly recommend watching match live via TV or online stream to get feel of it. If you see that match is slow and players aren’t looking motivated then it’s better to quit the match and accept smaller loss than your whole liability at the end of it.

Tennis Trading One of most important factors when you trade sports is market volatility and most volatile sport in terms of trading is tennis. Odds movement in tennis markets is affected by serves, games, points, unforced errors, injuries, player fitness, rallies and most important – breaks. So you can see that there are a way more factors than in football. To predict match scenario many traders use statistics. By using statistics you can learn what percentage of chances for a player is to hold a serve, break opponents serve, number of aces, receiving/serving winning points, possible comeback after losing game or set, etc. But using only statistical data like this can give you assumption that possibility to win points and serves remain the same trough whole match. There are other important factors that affect players, these are psychology, fitness and motivation. For example, when score in 1st set is 4:5 and a player with 4 points is serving, probability that opponent(player with 5 points) will break serve is much higher than in previous games as player is facing psychological pressure to lose a set. Also everyone will agree that struggling to hold your serve in one game and after that seeing 40-0 your opponent leading in next game can be very demoralizing no matter if it’s simply luck or something else. So probabilities to win points in each game may vary. Points and Service Breaks Generally movement of odds depends on points and breaks. If player holds his serve odds will move down by 6-20(sometimes even more) ticks. Odds will move less when strong serving players serve and/or in earlier stages of match than in later stages of match or for players with weak serve. Odds will move rapidly if break of serve occurs. Breaks are turning points of a tennis match. If you’re looking to trade tennis then your best entry into the betting market is related to break of serve. Predicting breaks can lead to successful trading and nice profits. Also if a match is close one then odds will move much more. For example in a match where odds of “player A” to win are 1.3. After a break they will drop 25

approximately to 1.15 but if odds for “player A” to win are about 2.0 then odd movement will be much bigger, odds can drop down to around 1.5. If you trade in later stages of a match you can aim for more profit but keep in mind that risk to lose will increase too. There can be many breaks and comebacks in close matches. Close matches tend to throw up more possibilities. Odds can swing up and down quite a lot. Many close matches give you opportunity to profit anyway whether you laid or backed at the beginning of it.

As you can see in graph above the line shows you supposed starting position taken when tennis match started. You would have many chances to profit either you backed or laid. You can even reverse your position. Lay low at 1.1 and back high at 2.0 and get only profit bet with odds of 1.9! Odds movement in WTA/ATP, Grand Slams Although previously mentioned factors work for every type of tennis tournaments but an amount of ticks by which odds move can be different. In man Grand Slams tournaments odds will move less than in regular ATP tournaments as players need to win 3 sets instead of 2 and that gives more time to change course of a tennis match. In WTA odds for holding the serve will move more than in ATP as women serving is weaker, therefore odds movement will be less affected by breaks as players can break many times. Train to 1.01 Of course there are one sided matches too where odds goes only one side. Often this happens when weak player faces strong player. As mostly odds will be very low for favourite there will be little possibilities for a trade. But there can be matches where 26

players are equally rated and that is represented in odds too. And one player strongly outplays other and odds move only one way. Or even strong underdog clearly outplays the favourite. Reasons for this can be injury, lack of motivation, corruption(fixed match) or simply getting out of bed on the wrong foot.

In a graph above you can clearly see that favourite player is outplayed by underdog and he loses the match. If you happen to be on the wrong side then it’s important to trade out as soon as possible. To avoid situations like this it’s recommended to follow a match for some games before entering the market. Tennis matches like this aren’t common. But still it’s good to research players before the match starts and learn about their possible injuries, motivation, etc. Tennis markets are ones of the most active in terms of odds movement. That makes them excellent for trading. Still there are some disadvantages, some matches can get very long and these can get affected by rain delays also. Of course tennis traders should be aware of one sided matches which give no or little possibilities to trade.

Back Favourite when Set Down Back favourite when Set Down is one of the most popular tennis trading strategies. It’s a swing trading strategy. Profit is made from huge swings in tennis matches. There is high chance that favourite player will win second set if he lost the first. Huge odds swings in the tennis market are mostly created by breaks and it’s possible to exploit this to successfully make profit. Steps: 1) Choose a tennis match where odds on favourite player are 1.5 and lower. 2) Back favourite tennis player if he lost the first set.

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3) Wait for favourite to break back or take the second set, then Lay him to get profit and no lose situation.

This graph shows odds for Nicolas Almagro in a tennis match between Nicolas Almagro and Luckas Kubot. As you can see before the match odds for Almagro were around 1.23. Almagro lost first set in tie-break and odds moved to 1.72. Then he won second set by 6:2. Odds dropped to 1.25. In this example you would need to Back Almagro after the first set at odds of 1.72 and trade out(Lay) when Almagro broke Kobot service game(odds around 1.39) or when he won the second set and get no lose and only profit situation. In this case you win 49 quid(1.72-1.25) that means if you put all profit on Almagro and your bets were $100 you will get $47 profit if Almagro wins in the 3rd set and in the match if not you lose nothing. Although favourite player may seem confident in his game, I recommend you to put some green on other player you can do it accordingly to the odds. You can never know for 100% which player will win in 3rd set. If favourite tennis player struggles in the second set you can trade out without any profit/small loss. If a player doesn’t look confident then trade out in 6th-7th game of second set. Also you can use graphs to get more knowledge of a tennis match if you see big swings in first set like in example graph above, then it’s very likely that favourite player will not give up without a fight as odds show that favourite player is fighting. Don’t Back favourite when player:   

looks really unmotivated; is injured; lost first set almost without any fight.

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Even if you follow all these rules there will still be some losers. If favourite player lost a break in the second set you can trade out and take a loss. Or if you really trust in your selections you can let it roll to end of the match. There are plenty of matches where favourite player loses the first set and loses service game in the second and still breaks back and even wins a match. Obviously you should use smaller stakes accordingly to your bank than using Back Serving Player strategy as loses will be bigger. Analyze data, statistics and follow matches via live stream or TV to get best results.

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Pre-Race Scalping in Horse racing For pre-race scalping use markets where price is quite stable, usually it’s on the favourite. In pre-race scalping only small tick movement is used. In stock markets there is a theory ‘bouncing ball’, it can be applied to sports trading as well, especially to horse racing. First of all you’ll need some trading software, for example, Gruss Betting Assistant or Bet Angel. Don’t want to subscribe? Then you can use and do fine with AGT Pro(It’s free). Use this strategy in the markets about 12 minutes before the race starts, as then markets are most active, of course definite time can vary depending on different factors such as amount of other races in same day, popularity, etc. First thing to do after opening the market is to find previous points of resistance. These are the lowest and highest prices in a market graph. For example, previous highest point in a graph is 3.4 and lowest 3.2. Now you need to put Back order at 3.4 and Lay order at 3.2 and wait for them to get matched, obliviously stake of lay bet should be a bit larger to get profit on all results. Also remember to look for the spots where there is little money as you’ll get in top of the queue so you’ll be matched faster. There is option to place bets separately too. Put a Back bet at a higher price(top point of resistance) and wait for the price to come down and lay it or even do it vice versa(lay then back). There are risks too, price can move other way from point of resistance, this is called a breakout, in that case you should get out quickly and don’t hope that price will move back to your position! This can lead you to more loss. You can set betting software to red out automatically if things go wrong way.

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Trading Software Trading software can greatly ease the trading process. Most important advantages of trading software over straight betfair website traiding are:      

Real time data; Faster bet placing and cancelling; Faster entry or exit from markets; Possibility to use many markets at the same time; Software customization to personal needs; Stop loss settings.

AGT Pro Most trading software come with monthly subscription therefore it won’t be lucrative for beginner trader. But don’t panic there is completely free alternative – AGT Pro. You can get it here. To use it register at AGT Pro forums. Once software is installed you’ll be asked to login with both - AGT forum account(only for the first time) and Betfair account. AGT looks similar to Betfair webpage. At left side you select sports and leagues. Once you’ve done that new window will open:

As an example I use Match Odds(1X2) market. First thing you’ll notice is that all data refreshes in real time and you don’t have to press refresh button repeatedly. Simply click on the odds to place a bet. I Lay the draw:

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At the left bottom side new window will open: Place Bets. Just like in Betfair website you can change amount of stake and odds. To submit or cancel bet use green or red button. Unmatched bets are shown at left side like this:

My bet has been accepted:

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£0.40 shows profit or lose if market were hedged. £30.40 shows amount of stake needed to hedge market.

After the first goal odds for the draw jumps to 4,7:

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Right click on the market and press “Hedge Entire Market”:

AGT Pro will calculate optimal stake to equally divide profit on all outcomes. A confirmation window will open. Simply click on the confirmation window to confirm your bet.

As you can see my profit isn’t equal on every outcome. This happened because after the goal market is very active and odds aren’t stable. When I pressed “Hedge Entire Market” odds were 4,5. Odds changed position to 4,6 when betfair matched my bet that`s why profit on the draw is bigger.

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Hedge again to equate profit:

Complite manual for AGT Pro can be found here. Want to learn more about bet trading or other betting systems? Visit www.beatbookie.net

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