The economist

经济学人中文网 London 伦敦 A precarious brilliance 辉煌之都摇摇欲坠 In praise of the world’s most international city. If only the rest of Britain properly appreciated it 赞颂世界上国际化程度最高的城市——但愿英国其它地区可以正确看待此事 Jun 30th 2012 | from the print edition

THIS is London’s year. In June the city put on damp but impeccably organised Diamond Jubilee celebrations; in July it hosts the Olympics. Barring terrorist attacks and transport disasters (not a small risk, given that the organisers are relying on public transport) the games should reinforce the city’s sense that it is on top of the world. 今年是伦敦之年。六月，该市举行了女王钻禧庆典①，虽然天气不佳但庆典组织得无可挑 剔；七月，奥运会即将在此主办。除非发生恐怖袭击和交通瘫痪（鉴于组织者有赖于公共交 通，交通瘫痪不是小风险），奥运会应该可以让伦敦增加信心：该市依然处于世界的顶端。 Yet London’s position is more precarious than it feels. The city’s success over the past quarter-century has been the consequence of historical accident and good policy. Now history is moving on, and the policymakers are messing up. They could tip the city into a decline without even noticing it, for the ecosystem of a great city is a complex and fragile thing. 然而伦敦的处境比想象中的更为危险。历史偶变以及好的政策为该市带来了过去 25 年的成

经济学人中文网 功。如今历史的车轮滚滚向前，而英国决策者把事情弄得一团糟。他们可能甚至在毫不留意的 情况下将伦敦推向衰退，因为大城市的生态系统往往复杂而脆弱。

De profundis 自深渊中② London has resisted Britain’s relative decline. While the country has slipped to seventh place in the league of world GDP, the capital is first, or second to New York, in most of the rankings of great cities. If it were not for London, Britain would be off the map for both businessmen and tourists. 英国相对衰退，伦敦却没有。英国在世界 GDP 排行中已经跌到第七位，而首都伦敦在大城市 的多数排名中却是稳居第一，或是仅次于纽约。如果没有伦敦，英国或许已经从全球商业和旅 游业的版图上被抹去了。 It wasn’t always thus. After a boom in Victorian times, the city went into a decline from the beginning of the second world war. Bombing, the waning of manufacturing, the closure of the docks and government policies designed to reduce the city’s dominance were responsible. By the late 1980s the population had shrunk by a quarter. 在过去，情况并非总是如此。在维多利亚时代的短暂繁荣之后，自第二次世界大战开始后伦敦 就陷入了衰退。引发衰退的原因包括轰炸、制造业的衰败、船坞的倒闭以及旨在削弱伦敦主导 性的政府政策。到 20 世纪 80 年代末，伦敦人口缩减了四分之一。 Then things turned around again. It was probably in part the gravitational pull of a great city reasserting itself, but as our special report in this issue explains, it was also the replacement of daft policies with good ones. In the 1970s the government stopped trying to push growth elsewhere; in the 1980s the Big Bang liberalised the financial-services industry and drew in workers and money from around the world. A convenient time zone and a language which imperialism had spread around the globe made it easy for foreigners to operate in the city. A trustworthy legal system and a clean polity made it a good place to do business. Excellent universities and private schools attracted young people and parents. 之后情况再度好转。在某种程度上可能是大城市的引力效果再次发挥了作用。但如本期特别报 道所述，这也源于政策方面的改进。在 20 世纪 70 年代，英国政府不再试图在伦敦之外推动 经济发展；在 80 年代，金融大爆炸解放了金融服务行业，把世界各地的工人和资金吸引到了 伦敦。便利的时区、被帝国主义传遍全球的英语都为外国人在伦敦开始营业提供了有利条件。 值得信赖的法律制度和清廉的政权让伦敦成了经商的好地方。优秀的大学和私立学校吸引了不 少年轻人和父母。 Thus globalisation, distilled and concentrated in London, turned the place into the world’s most international city. New York has as many foreign-born people as London—a bit more than a third—but its businesses look to America, whereas London’s look out to the world.

经济学人中文网 And whereas New York’s immigrants are mostly huddled masses, London attracts the smart professionals and the stinking rich as well. Its elite is increasingly made up of foreigners, or the children of foreigners. 如此，全球化在伦敦得以浓缩集中，并把此处变成了世界上国际化程度最高的城市。纽约的国 外来客和伦敦不相上下——略高于三分之一——但纽约的商业依赖于美 国，而伦敦的商业依 赖于全球。而且，纽约的移民多数是普通大众，而伦敦则同时吸引了高级知识分子和满身铜臭 的富豪。外国人，或者是外国人的子女在伦敦的精 英人口构成中占据着越来越高的比例。 For Londoners, this has a downside. Per square foot, property in London is more expensive than anywhere except Monaco. While property prices in other capitals, and in the rest of Britain, have fallen during the economic crisis, demand for central-London property from emerging markets has pushed prices in the city up still further. 对于伦敦人来说，这里存在不利影响。按每平方英尺来算，伦敦的房产价格比除摩纳哥以外所 有城市都要高。在经济危机中，别国首都以及英国其它地区的房价有所下跌，然而，来自新兴 市场的对于伦敦中心房产的需求使得该市房价进一步攀升。 There is a larger upside. Partly because foreigners are better-qualified, younger and— according to surveys of employers—harder-working than the locals, and because of the flow of foreign money into the city, London’s economy has done much better than Britain’s in recent years. Value-added per head in London is now one-and-three-quarters what it is in the country as a whole; and, as a result, London subsidises the rest of the country to the tune of £15 billion ($23 billion) each year. 而有利影响更大。部分原因是外国人素质更高、更为年轻而且——在雇主看来——工作起来比 本地人更为勤奋。还有部分原因是随着外国货币流入伦敦，近年来该市 的经济比英国总体经 济强劲许多。伦敦的人均增值是英国整体的 1.75 倍；因此，伦敦每年为英国其它地区提供补 贴，总值达 150 亿英镑（合 230 亿美元）。 But there is a hitch. Although Britain lives off London, and London lives off foreigners, Britain does not much like foreigners. Out of people from six rich countries recently polled, Britons were the most hostile to immigration. And that is not because they see so many immigrants. London, which is one-third foreign-born, is far warmer towards them than the rest of the country, where only 8% like them. Nor is this simply because migrants favour migrants: even British-born white Londoners are friendlier to foreigners than other Britons. 但这里存在一个问题。尽管英国依赖伦敦，而伦敦依赖外国人，但英国对外国人却是不太欢 迎。在最近进行民意调查的六个富裕国家国民中，英国人对于外来移民的敌意最重。而这并非 由于他们所见的移民太多。伦敦有三分之一的人生于外国，相比英国其它地区，伦敦对移民的 态度温和许多（在其它地区仅有 8%的人喜欢移民）。这也不仅仅因为移民彼此之间存在好 感：即使是生于英国的伦敦白人，对外国人的态度也比其他英国人友好。 London also cannot determine its own future. Its mayor has few powers. It is ruled by the rest

经济学人中文网 of the country, and by a Conservative prime minister brought up in the foreigner-free Berkshire countryside. Pressure on David Cameron from his right wing, and the rise of immigration up the list of voters’ concerns, has led him to promise to cut immigration to “tens of thousands” a year—a tough job, when net migration was 252,000 last year. Students’ right to work is being restricted, making study in Britain less affordable; acquiring business visas is becoming harder; getting family members into the country is increasingly difficult. The Labour Party’s attitude is much the same: last week its leader, Ed Miliband, said his party had “got it wrong” in allowing so much immigration. 伦敦也无法决定自己的未来。该市市长权力有限。统治着伦敦的是英国其它地区，是一位在没 有外国人的伯克郡乡村成长起来的保守党首相。右翼给戴维•卡梅伦带 来了压力，选民对于移 民人数的上升日渐表示焦虑，使得他允诺将移民数量降低到一年“数万人”——这是一项艰难的 工作，去年的净移民数为 252000 人。学 生的就业权利受到限制，让在英国学习更加难以负 担；取得商业签证日渐艰难；把家庭成员带入英国也越来越困难。工党的态度也大致相同：上 周工党领袖埃德•米利班德表示，他的政党在允许如此大量移民方面“犯了错误”。 Stay open to stay great 保持开放，才能保持辉煌 This is a great time for London, but its moment will inevitably pass. The accumulation of capital from the empire and the industrial revolution made the place prosper; and now, with the rise of the emerging markets, capital is accumulating elsewhere. Europe’s traumas, however they are resolved, will shape its future, either because it is bound more tightly into the continent, or, more likely, because it floats away from it. 目前是伦敦的美好时代，但毫无疑问，这机遇将转瞬即逝。从帝国和工业革命中积累起来的资 本曾给伦敦带来繁荣；而现在，随着新兴市场的崛起，资本已经积累在 了别处。无论欧洲遭 遇的挫折以何种方式解决，它们都将决定伦敦的未来，或许因为伦敦同欧洲大陆的联系更为紧 密，或许更可能的是，因为伦敦正在慢慢漂移出这 片大陆。 Yet although the government cannot prevent the city’s relative decline, it can affect its speed. The cost of housing is not just a problem for Londoners, but also a tax on business. Higher property taxes, which are desirable on wider economic grounds, would cut demand for property as an investment or a second home. Allowing more development both on brownfield sites in the city and on the Green Belt encircling it would increase supply; though beloved by environmentalists and nimbys, the Green Belt pushes growth further into the south-east, thus damaging a larger area of countryside. Transport needs to be improved by investing in rail, widening congestion-charging and expanding airport capacity. 但尽管英国政府无法阻止伦敦的相对衰弱，它可以减缓这一速度。房价不仅仅是伦敦人的难 题，对于商业也是一种压力。在更大的经济前提下，较高的房产税是可取 的，它将削减房产 作为投资或是作为第二居所的需求。允许对市内的棕色地块③以及市周围的绿化带进行更多 开发将带来更多供给；尽管绿化带受到环保人士和邻避 症候群④的喜爱，但它深入东南部， 对更大的乡村区域造成了危害。需要通过投资铁路、扩大拥挤收费的范围并进行机场扩建来进

经济学人中文网 一步满足交通需要。 Most of all, Britain needs to stop discouraging foreigners from coming. London’s prosperity is built on its ability to attract the rich, the clever and the hard-working from all over the world. Anything that jeopardises the city’s internationalism endangers its future, and anything that jeopardises London endangers the country. 最重要的是，英国不该再继续阻止外国人移民。伦敦具有吸引全球的富豪、人才和辛勤劳动者 的能力，它的繁荣建立在这种能力之上。任何危及伦敦国际性的事物都将危及它的未来，而任 何危及伦敦的事物都将危及英国。

译者注： ① Diamond Jubilee celebrations，钻禧庆典，即伊丽莎白二世登基钻禧纪念，这是 2012 年 的一项国际庆祝活动，以纪念 60 年前英女王伊丽莎白二世在 1952 年 2 月 6 日继驾崩的父王 乔治六世，登基成为当时英国、加拿大、澳洲、新西兰、巴基斯坦、南非、锡兰以及多个殖民 地的君主。除她以外，英国历史和英联邦历史上只 曾有维多利亚女王在 1897 年庆祝登基钻禧 周年纪念（来自维基百科）。 ② De profundis，拉丁语，相当于英语的 out of the depths。《圣经》《诗篇》第 130 篇有 述，意为“从苦难的深渊中发出的呼喊声”。本文作者此处应该是征引爱尔兰作家、诗人、剧作 家奥斯卡·王尔德 （Oscar Wilde）创作于 1897 年的书信集《De profundis》，中文译名为 《深渊书简》，又译《自深深处》、《王尔德狱中记》等。译者推测文中是用 De profundis 喻指伦敦从衰退的深渊中走出。故译为“自深渊中”。 ③ brownfield sites，棕色地块。棕地（Brownfield Site）：美国的“棕地”最早、最权威的概念 界定，是由 1980 年美国国会通过的《环境应对、赔偿和责任综合法》做出的。根据该法的规 定，棕地是一些不 动产，这些不动产因为现实的或潜在的有害和危险物的污染而影响到它们 的扩展、振兴和重新利用。20 多年来，棕色地块的清洁、利用和再开发问题越来越受到美 国 联邦、州、各地方政府以及企业和民间非赢利组织的极大关注。政府出台了许多政策措施，各 相关城市社区和民间组织积极配合，希望以整治棕色地块为契机，推 动城市及区域在经济、 社会、环境诸方面的协调和可持续发展。从用地性质上看，棕地以工业用地居多，可以是废弃 的，也可以是还在利用中的旧工业区，规模不 等、可大可小，但与其他用地的区别主要是都 存在一定程度的污染或环境问题（来自百度百科）。 ④ nimbys，该词源于一个缩略语 NIMBY。邻避综合症（英语：Not In My Back Yard， NIMBY）或称保家症候或宁避综合症，是一个形容新发展计划受到该区或邻近地区居民反对 的贬义词语。这个词语于 1980 年代由当时担任英国环 境事务大臣的保守党政客尼古拉斯•雷 德利所创。文中译者采用“邻避症候群”的译法。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-70028-1-1.html 译者敛刃

经济学人中文网 The psychology of discounting 打折心理 Something doesn’t add up 似乎有点不对劲 How marketers can take advantage of consumers’ innumeracy 营销人员如何利用数学盲消费者 Jun 30th 2012 | from the print edition

Bring a calculator with you 带上计算器去购物 WHEN retailers want to entice customers to buy a particular product, they typically offer it at a discount. According to a new study to be published in the Journal of Marketing, they are missing a trick. 零售商若想怂恿顾客购买某种产品，往往会打个折。一项即将发表在《市场营消杂志》（the Journal of Marketing）上的新研究表明，零售商们忽略了一个窍门。 A team of researchers, led by Akshay Rao of the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management, looked at consumers’ attitudes to discounting. Shoppers, they found, much prefer getting something extra free to getting something cheaper. The main reason is that

经济学人中文网 most people are useless at fractions. 由明尼苏达州大学卡尔森管理学院（University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management）的阿克什•劳（Akshay Rao）带领的一个研究团队就消费者对打折的态度进行 了研究。他们发现，与较低的价格相比，购物者更喜欢获取免费赠品。主要是因为一涉及分数 计算，多数人 的脑子都转不过来。 Consumers often struggle to realise, for example, that a 50% increase in quantity is the same as a 33% discount in price. They overwhelmingly assume the former is better value. In an experiment, the researchers sold 73% more hand lotion when it was offered in a bonus pack than when it carried an equivalent discount (even after all other effects, such as a desire to stockpile, were controlled for). 例如，消费者往往很难意识到加量 50%与打六七折其实是等价的。他们大多认为前者更划 算。在一项实验中，研究人员以优惠装出售护手霜比打同等折扣多卖了 73%（即使在其他影 响，如顾客想多买一点，都被排除在外时也是如此）。 This numerical blind spot remains even when the deal clearly favours the discounted product. In another experiment, this time on his undergraduates, Mr Rao offered two deals on loose coffee beans: 33% extra free or 33% off the price. The discount is by far the better proposition, but the supposedly clever students viewed them as equivalent. 即使很明显是打折比较划算，消费者的数学盲点依然存在。在另一项实验中，这次实验对象是 阿克什•劳的本科生，阿克什•劳给出了两种购买散装咖啡豆的方法：免费多送 33%和价格降低 33%。这个折扣比免费赠送划算得多，但那些看起来很聪明的学生却认为两者一样。 Studies have shown other ways in which retailers can exploit consumers’ innumeracy. One is to befuddle them with double discounting. People are more likely to see a bargain in a product that has been reduced by 20%, and then by an additional 25%, than one which has been subject to an equivalent, one-off, 40% reduction. 这些研究表明零售商还有其他方式可以利用消费者的数学盲点。其中一种就是用折上折来迷惑 他们。人们往往会觉得，先打八折再打七五折比一次性只打六折更划算，其实两者根本一样。 Marketing types can draw lessons beyond just pricing, says Mr Rao. When advertising a new car’s efficiency, for example, it is more convincing to talk about the number of extra miles per gallon it does, rather than the equivalent percentage fall in fuel consumption. 阿克什•劳说，除了产品定价，人们还可以从这些研究中学到关于市场营销的其他技巧。例 如，为一款新车的性能做广告，宣传每加仑的油能多跑多少英里比实质上能省多少油更有说服 力。 There may be lessons for regulators too. Even well-educated shoppers are easily foxed. Sending everyone back to school for maths refresher-courses seems out of the question. But

经济学人中文网 more prominently displayed unit prices in shops and advertisements would be a great help. 监管部门也可能从中学到东西。即使是受过良好教育的购物者也很容易被忽悠。让大家重返校 园进修数学似乎不大可能，不过在商店和广告中更明显地标出产品单价将会有莫大的帮助。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-70217-1-1.html 译者 contrary

Libor 伦敦银行同业拆借利率 Eagle fried 油炸老鹰——热锅上的巴克莱银行 Barclays pays a heavy price for falsifying its LIBOR submissions 汇报虚假 LIBOR，巴克莱付出惨重代价 Jun 30th 2012 | from the print edition

WHEN a trader asks a colleague to submit false information in order to boost his profits, the

经济学人中文网 correct answer is not “done…for you big boy”. This response was one of a host of exchanges involving 14 Barclays traders that were revealed this week as part of a probe by Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) and American agencies including the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DoJ). 当一名交易员拜托他的同事提交虚假消息，以此来推高他的盈利时，如果后者对前者的回答是 “哥们…帮你搞定了”，那可就大错特错了。本周，包括英国金融服务 管理局（FSA），美国商 品期货交易委员会（CFTC），美国司法部（DoJ）在内的监管机构在一项调查中披露，巴克 莱银行的 14 名交易员在数次交流中发 生了以上的谈话。 The probe relates to LIBOR, the London inter-bank offered rate. LIBOR is supposed to be a trusty financial yardstick, measuring the costs banks incur when they borrow from one another. Set each day, LIBOR determines the prices of loans and derivatives contracts worth several multiples of global GDP. The flaw in the system is that banks can estimate their own LIBOR rates. Although these estimates are supposed to be calculated by a team that is ringfenced from other parts of the bank, the probe shows that they were influenced at the behest of Barclays’ traders. 该项调查涉及 LIBOR，即伦敦银行同业拆借利率。LIBOR 被视作是一种可信任的金融指标， 度量银行间相互拆借资金的成本。LIBOR 每天设定一次，它 决定着各种贷款和衍生工具合约 的价格，这些贷款和合约的价值是全球 GDP 总和的数倍。这一系统的缺陷在于，银行可以自 行估算自己的 LIBOR 利率。按理 说，估算 LIBOR 利率的团队应与银行内其他部门相隔离， 但调查表明，估算团队的工作受到了巴克莱交易员命令的影响。 Back in 2006 the Barclays staff involved had little thought for the wider ramifications of distorting LIBOR. They had more important things on their minds, like champagne. Asked to fudge the numbers by a competitor bank, Barclays acquiesced. The grateful reaction: “Dude. I owe you big time! Come over one day after work and I’m opening a bottle of Bollinger.” 事件起始于 2006 年。那时，牵涉其中的巴克莱员工没想到对 LIBOR 的扭曲会产生广泛的影 响。他们所想的是一些更加重要的事，比如说香槟酒。竞争对手银 行请求他们编造数据，而 巴克莱则默许同意。这些银行的交易员们对巴克莱充满了感激之情：“哥们，你可帮我大忙 了！哪天下班后你过来我这边，我要为你开一瓶 博林格香槟。” The traders involved were those placing bets on interest-rate derivatives. These contracts are large enough—the total market was worth $554 trillion in 2011—that small price changes can mean big profits. Indeed, other messages revealed that for each basis point (0.01%) that LIBOR was moved, those involved could net “about a couple of million dollars”. Given this sort of payoff, one bottle of Bollinger seems a bit mean. 卷入该事件的交易员对利率衍生工具进行对赌。合约的价值十分巨大——整个市场在 2011 年 的达到了 554 万亿美元的规模——这意味着价格的微小变化就能产 生巨大的利润。事实也确 实如此，一些往来通信显示，LIBOR 一个基点（0.01%）的变动会使合约产生“约几百万美元” 的净利。考虑到如此巨大的收益， 用一瓶博林格香槟表达感激之情似乎显得小气了一点。

经济学人中文网

For Barclays, this is beyond embarrassing. The e-mails—the FSA tracked 257 messages asking for LIBOR and its yen and euro equivalents to be altered—make painful reading. That the investigation involved the FBI is a reputational disaster in itself. To its very slight credit, Barclays has not blamed this on rogue traders: its boss, Bob Diamond, and other senior executives have positioned this as a failing of the bank as a whole. Mr Diamond and three other senior staff have volunteered to forgo their annual bonus this year. 对巴克莱来说，不仅仅是丢脸就完事了。FSA 追踪了 257 条请求巴克莱篡改 LIBOR 及相应的 日元和欧元利率的电子邮件，其中充满了令人不快的内容。 FBI 也参与了这项调查，巴克莱因 此名声扫地。值得小小称赞一下的是，巴克莱没有将此事归咎到流氓交易员身上：包括老板鲍 勃•戴蒙德在内的几位高管将此事 定性为巴克莱银行整体的过失。戴蒙德和其他三名高管已经 自愿放弃了今年的分红。 The savings will not offset the fines Barclays has been handed. The bank received a £60m ($93m) fine from the FSA, the biggest ever doled out by the regulator (even after a 30% reduction because Barclays co-operated). This number still pales beside the penalties imposed by the CFTC and DoJ, which brought the total fine to £290m, around 10% of pre-tax profits in the bank’s most recent financial year. 放弃分红省下来的钱并不能抵消巴克莱递交的罚金。FSA 对它处以了 6000 万英镑（9300 万 美元）的罚款，这是英国监管当局有史以来开出的最大一笔罚单 （由于巴克莱的合作态度， 这笔罚金已经缩减了 30%，即使如此，也仍然是史无前例的）。但与 CFTC 和 DoJ 开出的总 和 2 亿 9 千万英镑的罚金相比，就显得 大巫见小巫了，大约占到了巴克莱最近财年 10%的税 前利润。 The share price actually rose on news of the settlement: investors presumably hope this will draw a line under the LIBOR investigation. But the FSA’s report includes a mine of information on exactly how and when LIBOR was being manipulated. This will be useful for claimants in civil cases being brought against Barclays in America, says Anthony Maton of Hausfeld, a law firm representing claimants there. Barclays is also likely to face new civil cases, including in Britain, as customers on the wrong side of LIBOR movements bring claims. 处罚措施公布后，巴克莱的股票价格实际上还有所上涨：投资者大概是希望当局对巴克莱操控 LIBOR 的调查将就此告一段落。但 FSA 的调查报告中包括了大量 信息，精确描述了 LIBOR 是在何时，以何种方式受到了操控。美国法律事务所 Hausfeld 代理了在美国的针对巴克莱的 诉讼，它的一名律师梅森认为，报 告中的信息将是扳倒巴克莱的有利证据。此外，巴克莱还 面临着包括英国在内的新的民事诉讼，在 LIBOR 的变动中站错边的巴克莱的客户们要求该银 行赔偿损 失。 Other banks have reason to fret. At least 12 banks are involved in LIBOR investigations around the world: the Barclays fines may herald similar penalties for other lenders. More disturbing still, if banks did distort money markets then they affected anyone with a LIBOR-

经济学人中文网 linked contract. That would open them up to claims stretching far beyond their own customers. 鉴于巴克莱的下场，其他银行有理由感到焦虑。全世界至少有 12 家银行卷入了这场有关 LIBOR 的调查：巴克莱被罚了钱，它的今天很可能是其他银行的明天。 更令人不安的是，如 果银行确实扭曲了货币市场，那么它们也就同时影响了与 LIBOR 有关的合约的价值。除了银 行本身的客户，这些合约的持有者也将对银行提 出索赔。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-70082-1-1.html 译者 defeatist

Moon tourism 月球旅游业 Fly me to the moon 好风凭借力，送我窥月宫

Two private firms are offering moon jaunts to the rich and dedicated 两家私营公司正向热忱的富豪提供月球之旅服务 Jun 30th 2012 | from the print edition

Are we nearly there yet? 咱快到了吧？ THE space race between America and the Soviet Union was as much about ideological oneupmanship as extraterrestrial exploration. A new space race to the moon has an even less lofty goal: sightseeing. Two space-tourism companies are planning rival lunar missions that could see private individuals paying to fly to Earth’s nearest celestial neighbour.美苏之间的太空竞赛不仅 有关外空间探索，同样也为了在意识形态上压倒对方。新一轮奔月竞赛的目标更不能算

经济学人中文网 高：只不过是去观光。两家太 空旅游公司正在计划相互竞争的探月项目，这可能会让个人 以私人身份买票，飞往地球最近的邻居。 On June 19th Excalibur Almaz, a space company based on the Isle of Man, a British dependency in the Irish Sea, became the second company—after Space Adventures, an American spacetourism firm—to offer tickets for a commercial moonshot. Both firms are charging $150m a seat, a price that includes months of ground-based training. Neither is offering a descent to the moon’s surface—just a lunar fly-by. 6 月 19 日，继美国的太空旅游公司“太空探险”（Space Adventures）之后，设在爱尔兰海 （Irish Sea）中英国属地曼恩岛（Isle of Man）上的航天公司王剑钻石（Excalibur Almaz） [注 1]成了第二家向公众出售探月航行飞船票的公司。两家公司的票价都是每位 1 亿 5 千万美 元，其服务包括升空前的几个月地面训练。它们都不提 供登月服务，只做绕月飞行。 Whereas the Americans won the first space race, the Russians are favourites for the rematch. Both Excalibur Almaz and Space Adventures are using Russian-made rockets and spacecraft. Space Adventures plans to re-engineer the veteran Soyuz craft that it has used to shuttle seven space tourists up to the International Space Station (ISS). Excalibur Almaz intends to refit two Almaz space stations that were originally made for the Soviet armed forces. 尽管美国在第一次太空竞赛中获胜，但在当前的复赛中俄罗斯却备受青睐。王剑钻石和太空探 险都使用俄制火箭和飞船。太空探险计划重建老式的联盟号飞船 （Soyuz），这种飞船完成了 7 名太空旅行者的国际太空站（International Space Station (ISS)）往返航程；而王剑钻石则 想重新装备原来为苏军打造的两座俄罗斯钻石空间站（Almaz space station）。 The space-tourism business is famously long on hype but rather short, so far, on results. And both firms face big engineering challenges, to put it mildly. The easier task probably falls to Space Adventures, whose well-tested Soyuz capsules—which have been flying, in one form or another, since the 1960s—require a beefier communications system, larger portholes (everyone wants a window seat, after all) and a better heat shield for re-entry. A separate booster rocket will be necessary to break the craft out of Earth orbit. 空间旅游业长期以来鼓噪宣传，人尽皆知，但至今尚未真正成行。即使说轻点，两家公司也都 面临着巨大 的技术挑战。这方面太空探险的工作可能轻松些，因为他们的联盟号太空舱久经 考验，从上世纪 60 年代起就以不同型号升空，只不过现在需要更可靠的通讯系统、 更大的舷 窗（毕竟人人都要靠窗的座位）和为重返大气层提供更好的耐热罩，还另外需要一个助推火箭 让飞船脱离地球轨道。 Excalibur Almaz’s bulky space stations will need a lot more work to convert into lunar spacecraft. The first step will be to attach engines. The company plans to use ion thrusters, a high-tech propulsion system in which propellant is ejected using an electric field. Such motors are extremely efficient, and can be powered from a station’s solar panels. But they generate little thrust, meaning that Excalibur Almaz’s mission will take at least six months, compared with just six days for Space Adventures’ chemical-powered craft. In fact, the low-

经济学人中文网 energy trajectory planned by Excalibur Almaz will take its crew members farther from the Earth than any other humans have been. 把王剑钻石庞大的空间站改装成探月飞船需要做的工作就多得多了。首先是要安装发动机。该 公司计划使 用离子推进器。这是一种高技术推进系统，其中的推进剂通过电场喷射。这样的 马达效率极高，可以通过系统的太阳能电池提供动力。但它们推力不大，这让王剑钻 石的一 次旅行至少费时 6 个月；相比之下，太空探险用化学燃料为飞船提供动力，一次旅行只要 6 天。实际上，王剑钻石计划采用的低能轨道将使它的飞船乘员创造 人类飞行的最远纪录。 A journey that long would be risky. One danger is from unpredictable and potentially deadly solar flares, giant releases of stellar energy that would bombard the craft with radiation and fry its occupants. To protect its passengers, the company plans to build an internal “storm shelter” that uses the spacecraft’s water supplies to absorb radiation. 这样长时间的太空航行会有风险。一种危险来自无法预测而且很可能会致命的太阳耀斑，这是 恒星能量的大规模爆发，它会以强烈的辐射轰击飞船，煎烤飞船乘员。为保护乘客，王剑钻石 计划在飞船内建造 “风暴防护室”，利用飞船中贮存的水吸收辐射。 Neither firm will start refitting its spacecraft, a process expected to take around three years, until it has sold all the seats on its maiden flights (two for Space Adventures, three for Excalibur Almaz). The companies are marketing their lunar missions to the same high-tech entrepreneurs and ultra-rich thrill-seekers who have snapped up tourist visits to the ISS and suborbital joyrides—long planned, but yet to fly—with firms such as Virgin Galactic. 这两家公司都还没有开始预计需时三年的飞船改装过 程，他们要在公司售出了处女航的所有 船票（太空探险两张、王剑钻石三张）之后才开始。已经有一批高科技企业家和追求刺激的超 级富豪抓紧机会买了维珍银河 （Virgin Galactic）等公司的船票，将要进行计划已久但尚未成 行的国际太空站访问，或在环地球轨道上作较短的兜风航行；上述两家公司正向同一批人兜售 他们的 探月之旅。 Space Adventures already claims to have sold one ticket. That has led Excalibur Almaz to sweeten its deal by offering equity in the company to its first paying passengers. But filling seats may prove tricky. Not only is the asking price more than seven times the $20m cost of a jaunt to the ISS, it also requires months of demanding physical and psychological training. And even if the engineering can be perfected, it remains to be seen how many daredevil billionaires will be willing to spend months cooped up in a metal tube eating freeze-dried food.

太空探险声称他们已经售出了一张船票。这让王剑钻石为自己的服务增加添头，例如向第 一批付款买票的顾客赠送本公司的股票等。但让人买票可能会很不容易。这 不单因为他们 的票价是前往国际空间站的短期访问票价（2000 万美元）的 7 倍以上，而且乘客在旅行 前还要接受长达数月之久的高强度体力与心理训练。更何 况，即使技术上可以做到毫无问 题，去旅游的人依然需要在金属管子里一呆好几个月，只靠啃干冻食品充饥；到底有多少 捍不畏死的亿万富翁愿意这样做？人们只能 拭目以待。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-70153-1-1.html 译者悠悠万事 97

经济学人中文网 Damon Albarn①’s new opera 戴蒙-亚邦①的新音乐剧 Star light, star bright 星光灿烂 A meditation on England 英格兰的冥想 Jun 30th 2012 | from the print edition | Books and arts

The queen needs a ladder 女王需要一把梯子 IN 1572 a new star blazed through the sky. It was a cataclysmic event for scholars, who believed at the time that the universe was unchanging. From his home in Mortlake, now in the London borough of Richmond upon Thames, John Dee② gazed up through the still untainted night as his certainties slipped away. 1572 年天空中出现了一颗闪烁的新星。这对于当时那些认为宇宙是永恒不变的学者来说是一 场灾难性的事情。约翰迪伊②过去住在摩特雷克，现在住在泰晤士河畔里士满区。无论他住 在哪里，都会举首凝望那仍然纯净无暇的夜空，而他所确信的观点也渐渐有所动摇。 Cartographer, cryptographer, mathematician, astronomer, astrologer and imperialist (he

经济学人中文网 came up with the idea of a “British empire”), Dee was a trusted adviser to Queen Elizabeth I, even setting the date for her coronation. The appearance of the star was a pivotal moment in his life. It is also the turning point in “Dr Dee”③, a new opera composed by Damon Albarn, frontman of the British pop bands Blur and Gorillaz. Dee’s desire to “know what was knowable in the world”, spurred by that star, leads him to occultism and, ultimately, to his downfall. Science was not so far from magic. 约翰迪伊是一位地图绘制者、密码破解者、数学家、天文学家、占星学家、帝国主义者（“大 英帝国”一词就是他提出的），他还是深受女王伊丽莎白一世信赖的顾问，连她加冕的日期都 是他挑选的。这颗星星的出现是他人生中关键的时刻，也是“迪伊博士③”中的转折点。“迪伊 博士”是一部由英国摇滚乐队布勒和街头霸王的主唱戴蒙亚邦推出的新音乐剧。迪伊的愿望是 “通晓世界上一切可知的事物”，正是那颗星星促使并引领他走向神秘学的道路不过最终也导致 他的垮台。科学和魔法仅仅一步之遥。 “Dr Dee” was commissioned by the Manchester International Festival, where it had its première last year, as well as the English National Opera, where it runs until July 7th, and the London 2012 Festival, of which it is part. First “cooked up” over eight weeks, “Dr Dee” has been polished since. The result is a spectacular production that combines Mr Albarn’s haunting music with dramatic staging and mesmerising video. “迪伊博士”这部音乐剧去年在曼彻斯特国际音乐节上进行了首次公演，并在英国国家剧院一直 上演到七月七日，还是伦敦 2012 年文化节的组成部分。其首次“计划公演期”超过八周，“迪伊 博士”也因此而大放异彩。结果产生了一部精彩的作品，它把亚邦先生那萦绕心头的音乐与激 动人心的演出风格以及令人着迷的视觉效果融合在了一起。 The notion of Englishness, and what has become of it, is at the heart of “Dr Dee”. The opera looks almost longingly at an age before England had reached its peak. The production sees a magnificent Queen Elizabeth I float above her realm (pictured). A great fleet flying the flag of St George sails across the stage. But “Dr Dee” does not dwell on these days of glory. Instead, it considers Dee from a 21st-century perspective. Mr Albarn and his troupe of musicians sit suspended above the proceedings, observing everything from the vantage of what Rufus Norris, the director, calls “a nation in decline”. This fine opera is both a celebration of England and a lament for a nation whose star is on the wane. 英伦风的概念，以及其演变过程正是“迪伊博士”的核心所在。在英格兰到达鼎盛时期之前，这 部歌剧看起来几乎令人无比神往。从作品中可以看到衣着华贵的女王伊丽莎白一世漂浮在她的 领土之上（见图）。挂着圣乔治旗帜的庞大舰队横渡舞台。不过“迪伊博士”音乐剧并没有局限 于这些荣耀的年代。相反，它是从 21 世纪的眼光角度审视迪伊这个人。亚邦先生和他的音乐 剧团俯视整个进程并且从导演鲁夫斯诺里斯称作“正在衰败的民族”的角度来看待每一件事。这 部精彩的音乐剧既是英国的歌颂，又是对一个国家的星光逐渐黯淡的挽歌。

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经济学人中文网 ① 戴蒙•亚邦（Damon Albarn），出生于 1968 年 3 月 23 日，为知名英国音乐人，身兼 Blur 乐团（中译：布勒）的主唱、虚拟乐团 Gorillaz（中译：街头霸王）的 主脑、The Good, the Bad & the Queen（中译：好人坏人与女王）的主唱，更参与了著名中文小说《西游记》所改 编舞台剧的作曲。 ② 约翰•迪伊（John Dee）（1527 年 7 月 13 日－1608 年）为英国著名数学家、天文学家、 占星学家、地理学家、神秘学家及伊丽莎白一世顾问。他把自己一生大部分时间献给炼金术、 占卜及赫耳墨斯哲学。 他常常凝视著科学与神秘的世界，犹如两者渐渐变得可以分辨的。他曾经以 20 余岁的年纪在 巴黎大学的大堂授课。他热衷于推广数学，更成为一个受人尊重的天文学家，在英国海外探索 方面也是一名专家，为很多人员提供训练。“大英帝国”一词就是他创造的。她加冕的日子是当 时英国著名的数学家和占星士约翰•迪伊挑选的，据说它特别吉利。 ③Dr Dee: An English Opera is an opera created by theatre director Rufus Norris and musician and composer Damon Albarn. It was inspired by comic book author Alan Moore. Its debut performance was at the Palace Theatre, Manchester in July 2011, as part of the 2011 Manchester International Festival.[1] The opera is based on the life of John Dee, medical and scientific advisor to Elizabeth I. http://www.ecocn.org/thread-70207-1-1.html 译者馒头 Amo