The Economist China Summit 2014

China Summit 2014 China reconstructs November 6th 2014 • Kerry Hotel • Beijing, China By 2020 China will have built a “moderately well-off society”, according to its president, Xi Jinping. Officials say that around the same time, economic reforms to boost market forces will have achieved “decisive results”. For this to happen China needs to change the way it is developing. The investment-driven growth model that yielded so much in past decades now offers diminishing returns; it needs to be replaced by one giving much more emphasis to productivity improvements and consumer spending. But further rapid growth will require a range of reforms that will be difficult to implement. Among these, central authorities must create a market in rural land so that more farmers can sell up and move on; build a welfare system in the cities that will embrace new migrants; sustain economic growth to ensure that the migrants have jobs; and satisfy the demands of a new middle class that wants cleaner air and a bigger say in how cities are run. If it succeeds, China’s growth will become more sustainable and the benefits of growth more fairly distributed. China Summit is The Economist’s award-winning, annual event in Beijing. Hosted by the editor-in-chief and the newspaper’s China editorial team, this year’s programme will explore the progress of China’s reforms and prospects for their success. Editors will lead discussion and debate on the country’s business environment, economy, politics and society with high-profile speakers from China and abroad. China Summit is for business leaders, policymakers, academics and observers who wish to discuss, debate and learn. Chairman John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist Moderators Gady Epstein, Beijing Bureau Chief, The Economist Simon Rabinovitch, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist Vijay Vaitheeswaran, China Business and Finance Editor, Shanghai Bureau Chief, The Economist

© 2014 The Economist Events This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.

8.45 am

Chairman’s opening remarks John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

9.15 am

Keynote opening Zhang Xiaoqiang, Executive Vice Chairman, China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Former Vice Chairman, National Development and Reform Commission Moderator: John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

9.45 am

Reconstructing the economy Last year China’s government introduced a long and ambitious list of economic reforms: streamlining the state, encouraging private investment, relaxing hukou restrictions, strengthening land rights and liberalising interest rates. Aimed at reconstruction, the reforms promised to boost growth and create other benefits for business. By cutting red tape and other regulatory barriers to entry, private firms could more easily invest in industries now dominated by state-owned enterprises. And by strengthening land rights and reforming the hukou, workers could also find it easier to leave the land and settle in the cities. But whether this all happens depends crucially on implementation at the local levels and timing.   

Reform report card: What is the current state of progress? The government has proposed a “profound revolution” in rural land reform. What needs to be done? Is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone a new model for the future?

Speakers: Xiang Songzuo, Chief Economist, Agricultural Bank of China Cheng Manjiang, Chief Economist and Global Head of Research Department, BOC International Alfred Schipke, Senior Resident Representative for China, International Monetary Fund Liu Qiao, Professor of Finance, Assistant Dean, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University Moderator: Simon Rabinovitch, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist 10.35 am

Interview: The lure of shadow banking Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, was recently asked to identify the greatest danger to the world economy. He chose shadow banking in emerging markets. Much of the attention is on China’s explosive shadow-banking market, which grew by 42% in 2012 alone. Regulatory arbitrage is happening on an alarming scale. Banks in China are banned from expanding lending to certain industries, and from luring deposits by offering high returns. So they do both indirectly, through shadow banks of various sorts.

© 2014 The Economist Events This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.

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How safe is shadow banking? What opportunities does it bring? What will the future balance between shadow and traditional banking look like?

Speakers: Lu Ting, Chief Greater China Economist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Wang Tao, Managing Director and Head of China Economic Research, UBS Investment Research Moderator: Simon Rabinovitch, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist 11.00 am

Networking refreshment break

11.30 am

Reconstructing politics A plenum last November of the Communist Party’s Central Committee set out a broad agenda for economic and social reform. Officials have described this meeting as comparable in importance to a plenum in 1978 that marked the launch of China’s “reform and opening” policy. Obstacles to change are certainly as great today as they were 35 years ago. Further reform will threaten the interests of local governments, powerful state-owned enterprises and even the new middle class. In this session we will assess progress made since the plenum in November, and examine the political hurdles ahead.    

Reform report card: Are reforms on track? Is there a plan for co-ordinating and timing reforms? Centre versus localities: How is the balance changing? Anti-corruption crackdown: A boost for reform? Rule of law: What changes need to take place for other reforms to go forward?

Speakers: Joseph Fewsmith, Professor of International Relations and Political Science, Boston University Xue Lan, Professor and Dean, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University James Miles, China Editor, The Economist Moderator: John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist 12.20 pm

The Fourth Revolution: Global race to reinvent the State? Speakers: Wu Chen, Chinese Editor, The Economist Global Business Review Eric Li, Managing Director, Chengwei Capital

© 2014 The Economist Events This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.

Moderator: John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist 12.50 pm

Networking luncheon

2.05 pm

Building better cities By 2030 Chinese cities will be home to about 1bn people, or about 70% of the population, compared with 54% today. But barriers to a smooth urban transition are building. Throughout China’s cities levels of pollution, congestion and social tensions are growing. Getting cities right underlies China’s future—it will cement its global power and keep its growth speedy for years to come. But getting cities wrong would be disastrous. It could bring worsening inequality, the spread of slums, the acceleration of global climate change and increasing social unrest. Whether China can achieve its reform targets will depend on how it manages its cities.    

How will local governments achieve central government targets for urban development? How big—and how manageable—is local government debt? Which cities are getting it right? Does China need a property tax?

Speakers: Henry Chin, Head of Research, Asia-Pacific, CBRE William Overholt, President, Fung Global Institute Martin Chen, Chief Operating Officer, Genesis Property Deborah Lehr, Senior Fellow , The Paulson Institute Moderator: Gady Epstein, Beijing Bureau Chief, The Economist 2.50 pm

Networking refreshment break

© 2014 The Economist Events This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.

3.20 pm

Debate: The golden age for multinationals in China is over For the past three decades, multinationals have poured in. After the financial crisis, many companies looked to China for salvation. But some say life is getting harder for foreign companies. Among the recent examples are a post-Snowden backlash against tech firms, corruption probes into drugmakers and accusations of price-gouging against consumer firms. Competition is also getting tougher. Growth is flagging, while costs are rising. Talented young workers are getting harder to find, and pay is soaring. Others argue that China’s market is still the world’s most enticing. They believe foreign companies are not being mistreated; in fact, many are still ploughing money into their China investments, which are doing well financially. Local operations are still churning profits and higher revenues year on year. And at a time when developed economies remain stagnant, betting on China may be the best among a bad lot. For some, China is still at least as profitable as other markets worldwide. Motion for debate: The golden age for multinationals in China is over. For the motion: Anne Stevenson-Yang, Co-Founder and Research Director, J Capital Research Against the motion: Haiyan Wang, Managing Partner, China India Institute Moderator: Vijay Vaitheeswaran, China Business and Finance Editor, Shanghai Bureau Chief, The Economist

4.15 pm

Going global: Stories from Chinese MNCs China’s role in the global economy is changing. Foreign direct investment outflows are closing in on inflows: by 2017, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects China to become a net investor in the world. As private and state-owned firms become increasingly active abroad, established Chinese multinationals have valuable lessons from experience to offer on overcoming regulatory burdens and cultural differences when going global. This session will feature interviews with chief executives from Chinese multinational companies. Speakers: Wang Wenyin, Chairman, Amer International Group Shi Lirong, President and Chief Executive Officer, ZTE Corporation Moderator: John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

5.05 pm

Global briefing: The world in 2015—Business The Economist’s predictions on business in 2015 will provide insight from around the world.

© 2014 The Economist Events This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.

Moderator: Vijay Vaitheeswaran, China Business and Finance Editor, Shanghai Bureau Chief, The Economist 5.25 pm

Chairman’s closing remarks John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

5.30 pm

Networking cocktail reception

© 2014 The Economist Events This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.