Teori Peluang (Tugas Statistik)

TEORI PELUANG (PROBABILITAS) Dosen Pengampu : Mesra B, SE., MM

Dsusun O!e": Nama

: Mu"amma# R$a! Pa"!ep Nasu%on

Npm

: &'&'&**

+e!as

: III ++ & D

Ma%a +u!a"

: S%a%s% Eonom #an Bsns - II

Program ram S%u S%u#

: E Eo onom nom Mana anaeemen men Bsn sns

UNI/ERSITAS UNI/ERSITAS PEMBANGUNAN PE MBANGUNAN PAN0ABUDI PAN0ABUDI MEDAN TA1UN TA1UN A2ARAN 3&4

1

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+ATA PENGANTAR  Puji syukur dan terima kasih penulis panjatkan kepada Tuhan Yang Yang Maha Esa yang telah memberikan  petunjuk dan rahmatnya , serta dukungan dukungan dari Dosen,orang-tua, juga teman teman karena penulis dapat menyelesaikan tulisan ini yang berupa makalah dengan judul “Teori Peluang” untuk memenuhi tugas mata kuliah Statistik Ekonomi dan isnis - !! , oleh dosen pembimbing Mesra , SE", MM

Dengan memba#a makalah ini penulis  berharap dapat membantu teman-teman serta  pemba#a dalam memahami materi tentang Manajemen keuangan,dan dapat memperkaya $a$asan pemba#a"

Penulis menyadari bah$a dalam menyelesaikan makalah ini terdapat kekurangan dan kesalahan dari segi kata-kata , bahasa, atau penulisan dalam menyajikan materi" Saran dan kritik sangat diharapkan oleh penulis agar makalah ini dapat lebih  baik lagi"

%khir kata semoga makalah ini dapat

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Medan, '( Mei )('*

Penulis

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DA5TAR ISI +%T% PE%T%. """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" i D%/T%. D%/T%. !S! """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""" """ ii % '" PED%0121% """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""" ' %" " 3" D" E"

2atar elakang """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""" ' !denti&ikasi Masalah """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"" ) Perumusan Masalah """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""" """" ) Pembatasan Masalah """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""" """" ) Tujuan Penelitian """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""" 4

% )" PEM%0%S% """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""" 5 %" " 3" D" E" /"

Pengertian Probabilitas """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""" """ 5 Pendekatan Perhitungan Probabilitas """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""" "" 6 eberapa %turan Dasar Probabilitas """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""" """" 7 Permutasi Dan +ombinasi """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""" '4 Man&aat Probabilitas Dalam Penelitian """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""" '* Menghitung Menghitung Probabilitas Probabilitas atau Peluang Suatu +ejadian """""""""""" """"""""""""""""" """""""""" """""""""" """""""""" """""""""" """""""""" """""""" """ '7

% 4" %%2!S% """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""" )( %" Pelemparan Dadu """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""" )( " Pelemparan 1ang 2ogam """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""" )) 3" Pengambilan +elereng """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""" )8 D" Pengambilan +elereng Dengan Teori Teori ayes """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""" )*

% 5" +ES!MP12% """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""" )9 D%/T%. D%/T%. P1ST%+% P1ST%+% """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""" 4(

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BAB I  PENDA1ULUAN A. La%a La%arr 6 6e! e!a aan ang g

Sampai saat ini statistika merupakan alat dan juga metode analisis yang dipakai untuk menge:aluasi data yang pada akhirnya akan diperoleh suatu kesimpulan berdasarkan sampel yang ada" Dari semua alat analisa, konsep probailitas merupakan salah satu alat analisis yang mempunyai peran sangat penting untuk meme#ahkan masalah dalam kehidupan sehari-hari mulai dari bidang ilmiah sampai pada masalah-masalah ke#il, seperti masuk kantor atau tidak, kareana a$an tebal kemungkinan akan hujan deras dan banjir, dan sebagainya" Meskipun kejadian-kejadian tersebut tidak pasti, tetapi kita bisa melihat &akta-&akta yang ada untuk menuju derajat kepastian atau derajat keyakinan bah$a sesuatu akan terjadi" Derajat atau tingkat kepastian atau keyakinan dari mun#ulnya hasil per#obaan statistik disebut Probabilitas ;Peluang