Tema 3. - Ensayo Sobre Las Características Generales de La Toma de Decisiones Basada en La Teoría de Probabilidades.

 

ECPVEV[VL VK@CLJÐIE@L FK BJVBME^B Ecikcekríb kc Jliíste`b

Ecvksteib`eðc fk Lpkrb`elcks EE Vkmb 0.- Kcsbyl Plnrk Jbs @brb`tkríste`bs Ikckrbjks Fk Jb Vlmb Fk Fk`eselcks Nbsbfb Kc Jb Vklríb Fk Wrlnbnejefbfks.

@btkfrâte`l1 Ezbiuerrk Dkrrkrb Wbuj Lrjbcfl Bjumcl1 _bjfkz ^bmírkz Bcikj

 

Bjtbmerb Vbmbujepbs, 25 fk Mbyl fk >725

 

Ectrlfu``eðc. Kc ks kstk tk ks ks`r `ret etl l sk bn bnlr lrfb fbrâ râ kj tk tkm mb tl tlmb mb fk fk fk`e `ese sel lck cks s kc jbs jbs lribcezb`elcks, b trbvås fk `ubtrl ouc`elcks bfmecestrbtevbs, quk slc1 Wjbckb`eðc, Lribcezb`eðc, Ferk``eðc y @lctrlj, ob`tlrks emplrtbctks kc jls jls rk` rk`ur ursls sls du dumbc mbcls, ls, ml mlckt cktbre brels ls prl prlpel pels s y bakcl bakcls s fk jb km kmpr prksb ksb,, bikctks bikc tks ecf ecfespkc espkcsbnj sbnjks ks pbr pbrb b kj nukc ouc` ouc`elc elcbmek bmekctl ctl y fksb fksbrrl rrljjl jjl fk kstb. Kj oucfbmkc oucfbmkctl tl quk merbr merbrkml kmls s kc jb tlmb fk fk`es fk`eselc elcks ks ks kc`lct kc`lctrbr rbr ucb uc b

nu nukc kcb b mb mbck ckrb rb fk `l `lmk mkcz czbr br b kc kctkc tkcfkr fkr kj prl` prl`ksl ksl pbr pbrb b tlm tlmbr br

fk`eselcks kc rkjb`eðc `lc kj trbnbal fk jb lribcezb`eðc, ks `lmprkcfkr `jbrbmkctk quk kj oucfbmkctl fk jb tlmb fk fk`eselcks ks jb skjk``eðc rb`elcbj fk uc `ursl fk b``eðc.

Fksbrrljjl. ‚[c ‚[ cb

lribc bceezb` b`eð eðc c

ks

uc

`l `lc cauctl

fk

kjk jkm mkctl kctls, s,

`lmpukst stl l

prec`epbjmkctk prec`epb jmkctk plr pkrslcbs, quk b`tñbc k ectkrb`tñ ectkrb`tñbc bc kctrk sí nbal ucb kstru` kstr u`tu turb rb pk pkc csb sbfb fb y fe fesk skòb òbfb fb pb pbrb rb qu quk k jls jls rk`u rk`urs rsls ls du dum mbc bcl ls, oe oecb cbc` c`ek ekrl rls, s, oí oíse se`l `ls, s, fk ec ecol olrm rmb` b`eð eðc c y lt ltrl rls, s, fk ol olrm rmb b `l `llr lrfe fecb cbfb fb,, lrfkcbfb y rkiujbfb plr uc `lcauctl fk clrmbs, jlirkc fktkrmecbfls oecks, jls `ubjks pukfkc skr fk ju`rl l cl”. Jb bfmecestrb`eðc kc skctefl `lcsk`ukctk, ks bqukjjb quk sk rkbjezb kc ucb uc b

km kmpr prks ksb. b. Wl Wlsk skk k

`u `ubt btrl rls s

ouc` ouc`el elck cks s

ks kspk pk`í `íoe oe`b `bs s

qu quk k

sl slc1 c1 jb

pjbceoe`b`eðc, jb lribcezb`eðc, jb ferk``eðc y kj `lctrlj8 kstbs kstrbtkiebs

 

ucefbs sk `lcl`kc `lml prl`ksl bfmecestrbtevl y sk fkoeckc `lml jls fevkr fev krsls sls fk fkskm skmpk pkòl òls s qu quk k sk fkn fknkc kc rkb rkbjez jezbr br pb pbrb rb qu quk k sk jlir jlirkc kc jl jls s lnaktevls `lc kj nukc usl fk jls rk`ursls y jk pkrmetb tlmbr ucb nukcb fk`eseðc. Fkctrl fk ucb lribcezb`eðc tlmbr ucb fk`eseðc ks ucb rksplcsbnejefbf muy bjtb quk jk pkrmeterâ slju`elcbr l fksmkalrbr jb setub`eðc fk jb kmprksb, plr ksl ks emplrtbctk bplybrsk kc dkrrbmekctbs, pbrb bsí  tlmbr jb mkalr bjtkrcbtevb, jb tlmb fk fk`eselcks ks uc prl`ksl kc kj quk ucl ks`lik kctrk fls l mâs bjtkrcbtevbs. Wkrmbckctkmkctk cls jb pbsbmls tlmbcfl fk`eselcks, kc bjiucbs mkfefbs tekckc uc empb`tl rkjbtevl kc kj fksbrrljjl fk cukstrb vefb, mekctrbs ltrbs cl.

@lc`juseðc. Wbrb Wb rb `l `lc` c`ju juse seðc ðc tl tlfb fb lrib lribce cezb zb`e `eðc ðc ks uc `l `lca cauc uctl tl fk kj kjkm kmkc kctl tls, s, kspk`e ksp k`ebjm bjmkc kctk tk fktkr fktkrmec mecbf bfl l

pl plrr kj rk` rk`ur ursl sl dumb dumbcl cl,, qu quk k pkr pkrme metk tk

ectkrb`tubr orkctk b ucb kstru`turb lribcezb`elcbj y quk kstâ rkiujbfl  aurífe`bmkctk, pbrb tlmbr fk`eselck  aurífe`bmkctk, fk`eselcks s ks ck`ksbre ck`ksbrel l b plybrsk kc feokrkctks tepls fk dbnejefbfks tå`ce`bs, dumbcbs y `lc`kptubjks. Jb ferk``eðc ks ucb fk jbs fkpkcfkc`ebs quk mâs kstâ bj tbctl fk tlmbs fk fk`e fk `ese selc lcks ks,, pl plrr jl tbct tbctl l fk fknk nk sk skrr tl tltb tbjm jmkc kctk tk ln lnak akte tevl vl y jð jðie ie`l `l bj mlmkctl fk tlmbrjbs, ks ck`ksbrel tkckr mktbs y lnaktevls `jbrls, pbrb jjkvbr fk mbckrb `lcsestkctk b jb skjk``eðc fk bqukjjb bjtkrcbtevb quk mbxeme`k b jb kmprksb.

 

B fkmâs ks emplrtbctk bplybrsk kc ouc`elcks bfmecestrbtevbs `lml jb pjbck pjb ckb`e b`eðc ðc y kj `l `lctr ctrlj lj kc jb lr lrib ibcez cezb`e b`eðc ðc y sk fk fkskm skmpkò pkòbc bc `lm `lml l pr prl`k l`ksls sls bfm bfmec ecest estrbt rbtev evls ls qu quk k bf bfme metkc tkc kj jl jlir irl l fk jl jls s ln lnakt aktevl evls s y jb mâxem mâ xemb b iks iksteð teðc8 c8 tlfl tlfl kst kstl l jk pkr pkrme metk tk b jb fe ferk rk``e ``eðc ðc tl tlmbr mbr jb mka mkalr lr fk`eseðc.