Taller Fundamentos de Probabilidad

 

Xmccnr Euohmknotis hn Vribmbdcdhmh Vuoti =. Vmrm jdnrtm pibcmjdúo hn nkpcnmhis, nc pirjnotmgn qun mprunbm i rnprunbm uo nxmkno hn jikpntnojdm no uo trmbmgi, dohdjmhi hn mjunrhi jio nc aäonri, eunrio jiki sn vn no cm tmbcm sdaudnotn. Nsti ns, hn tihms cms pnrsioms qun tikmrio nc nxmkno, 28% nstmbmo no cm jmtnairëm hn

likbrn-mpribmhi, :5% nstuvdnrio no cm jmtnairëm hn kugnr-mpribmhm y msë sujnsdvmknotn. ^o nkpcnmhi nkpcn mhi vm m snr sncnjjdiomh sncnjjdiomhi i mc mzmr hn nstm pibcmjdú pibcmjdúo. o. Znm  M nc nvnoti hn qun nc nkpcnmhi ibtnoam ibtn oam uom jmcdedjmjdúo jmcdedjmjdúo hn mpribmhi mpribmhi no nc nxmkno y snm  K nc nvnoti hn qun sn sncnjjdion uo likbrn. Xmbcm hn ernjunojdms rncmtdvms (%) Rnsuctmhi Mpribmhi (M) Rnpribmhi (R) Xitmc

Kmsjucdoi (K) 28 =5 86

Enknodoi (E) :5 28 56

Xitmc

56 86 =66

m¹Cis nvnotis  M y K sio dohnpnohdnotns9 b ¹Cis nvnotis R y E sio dohnpnohdnotns9 j ¹Juíc ns cm  pribmbdcdhmh hn qun snm snm Kmsjucdoi hmhi qun rnp rnpribú ribú nc nxmkno9 Vuoti Vuot i 2. Hn ci ciss vdmgnr vdmgnris is qun ccnam ccnamo o m uo pnquný pnqunýi i mnripu mnripunrt nrti, i, 56% vuncm vuncmo o no cëonms cëonms märnms dkpirt dkp irtmot motns, ns, :6% no mvdion mvdionss hn pripdn pripdnhmh hmh prdvm prdvmhm hm y nc rnsti rnsti no mvdio mvdions ns jik jiknrj nrjdmc dmcns ns qun oi  pnrtnonjno m uom cëonm märnm dkpirtmotn. Hn qudnons vdmgmo vdmgmo no cëonms märnms dkpirtmotns, >6% vdmgmo  pir onaijdis no tmoti qun 56% hn qudnons ccnamo no mvdions prdvmhis y 46% hn qudnons ccnamo no itris mvdions jiknrjdmcns vdmgmo pir onaijdis. Zupioam qun sncnjjdiomkis mc mzmr uom pnrsiom qun ccnam m nstn mnripunrti. ¹Juíc ns cm pribmbdcdhmh hn qun cm pnrsiom M vdmgn pir onaijdis9, b vdmgn pir onaijdi no uo mvdúo prdvmhi9, j ccnaun no uo mvdúo prdvmhi, hmhi qun cm pnrsiom vdmgm pir onaijdis9, h vdmgm pir onaijdi, hmhi qun vuncm no uo mvdúo jiknrjdmc9 Vuoti Vuot i :. NjioIjio lmjn pcmons pmrm nc hëm hn jmkpi hn cm jikpmýëm. Ci ÷odji qun pihrëm jmojncmrci snrëm uom tirknotm. Nc snrvdjdi hn doeirkmjdúo hnc jcdkm lm prioistdjmhi jiohdjdions snjms jio pribmbdcd pribmbdcdhmh hmh hn 6.2, jiohdjdions jiohdjdions l÷knhms jio pribmbdcdhmh pribmbdcdhmh hn 6.8> y jioh jiohdjdi djdions ons ccu ccuvdi vdisms sms jio pribmb pribmbdcd dcdhmh hmh hn 6.:>. 6.:>. Zd cm pribmb pribmbdcd dcdhmh hmh hn uom tirkno tirknotm tm ncäjtr ncäjtrdjm djm hmh hmhms ms cms jiohdjdions snjms ns 6.:, hmhms cms jiohdjdions l÷knhms ns 6.5 y hmhms cms jiohdjdions ccuvdisms ns 6.

Zd his nvnotis, M y B, sio tmcns qun V ( M  M) ; .>, V ( B  B) ; .:, y V ( M  M ∤ B) ; .=, nojunotrn ci sdaudnotn7 m V(M/ B) b V(B /M) j V(M/ M ∧B) h V(M/ M ∤B) n V(M ∤B/ M ∧B)