Strategi Menghindarkan Indonesia Dari Ancaman Resesi Ekonomi Di Masa Pandemi

 

Eneftir, ^ibu`e 1 Kssue ?, ?=?=, ]daes 484-4;=  Dvdkbdobe igbkge igbkge dt< http.?=8 peferld. Zecdgafdg ugtuf seftir kgnir`db perusdhddg ydga tercd`pdf selu`bdh :4.333 cdg lu`bdh fdrydwdg ydga ter-]HF selu`bdh 5:8.:85. Cd`pdf terseout sdbdh sdtugyd ckseodofdg fdregd pe`oerbdfudg Qirf Nri` Hi`e  Hi`e  (QNH) cdg skste` bijfciwg bijfciwg   ckoerodadk wkbdydh sehkgaad feodgydfdg perusdhddg dfdg `egaurdgak lu`bdh fdrydwdg. Cdtd terdfhkr Odcdg ]usdt Ztdtkstkf (O]Z) pdcd Daustus ?=4; `egugluff `egugluffdg dg tkgafdt pegadgaaurdg teroufd `egjdpdk 1,=5  lutd dtdu dtdu 5,?8% cdrk tit titdb db dgaf dgafdtdg dtdg fe ferld. rld. Jegter nir Ejigi`kj _enir` (JI_E) _enir` (JI_E) `e`perfkrdf `e`perfkrdfdg dg pdcd trkwubdg KK tdhug ?=?= lu`bdh pegadgaaurdg teroufd dfdg `egkgafdt seoesdr 3,?5 lutd.  Dgafd terseout `erupdfdg preckfsk ydga ckoudt ibeh KGSK oercdsdrfdg sfegdrki rkgadg ydga terfegd pdgce`k jirigd. Ck sddt ydga sd`d, >,>8 lutd irdga dfdg `egadgaaur cdbd` figcksk secdga cdg ;,:5 lutd cdbd` figcksk pdrdh. ]e`erkgtdh tebdh `egae`odgafdg oerodadk priard` ldrkga pegad`dg siskdb ugtuf `e`ktkadsk cd`pdf pdgce`k JI^KC-4; (terutd`d pegadgaaurd pegadgaaurdg) g) sdbdh sdtu priard` terseout ydktu ‒Fdrtu ]rd Ferld‐. Ferld‐. ]riard` terseout oertuludg ugtuf `e`odgtu 5,> lutd irdga ck Kgcigeskd ydga `egadgaaur cegadg `egkgafdtfdg dgaadrdg cdrk _p 4= trkbkug `egldck _p ?= trkbkug.  Dwdbgyd priard` tterseout erseout hdgyd cktulufdg ugtuf `dsydrdfdt ydga terfegd cd`pdf ]HF df dfkodt kodt Jivkc-4;. Gd`ug pdcd fegydtddggyd se`ud pegadgaaurdg ter`dsuf `erefd ydga odru `egyebesdkfdg pegckckfdg nir`db kfut oerpdrtkskpdsk. Dgtuskds`e `dsydrdfdt `egkgafdt cerdstks fetkfd pegcdntdrdg ckoufd, furdga beokh ?:,8 lutd irdga pegcdntdr cdg pegerk`d Fdrtu ]rd Ferld. Cegadg dcdgyd dgtuskds`e cdg sdsdrdg ydga tkcdf spesknkf pe`erkgtdh sddt kgk sucdh `e`oufd pegcdntdrdg hkgaad aebi`odga fe sepubuh. Fetkfd pdgce`k JI^KC-4; `e`perbd`odt perefigi`kdg abiodb, pe`erkgtdh tebdh `ebdfufdg oeoerdpd bdgafdh ugtuf `egciriga pertu`ouhdg efigi`k ci`estkf sdbdh sdtugyd ydktu `ebdfufdg pegurugdg dtds OK 1-Cdy 1- Cdy _everse _epi _dte seoesdr _dte seoesdr ?5 ops `egldck 3.15%, sufu ougad Cepiskt Ndjkbkty seoesdr ?5 ops `egldck 3.==% cdg sufu ougad Begckga Ndjkbkty   seoesdr ?5 ops `egldck 5.5=%. Updyd pegaegcdbkd pegaegcdbkdgg kgnbdsk cdg stdokbktds efstergdb luad hdrus ckbdfufdg cegadg jdrd `e`dgtdu perfe`odgadg efigi`k abiodb cdg ci`estkf ugtuf `egciriga pegkgafdtdg pegkgafdtdg pertu`ouhdg efigi`k (Gdsutkig et db., ?=?=). ]dcd sddt efigi`k oerldbdg terbdbu bd`odt ydga cktdgcdk cegadg tkgaakgyd tkgafdt pegadgaaurdg, regcdhgyd pertu`ouhdg perefigi`kdg geadrd `dfd feokldfdg ydga cdpdt ckd`okb ibeh pe`erkgtdh ugtuf `egciriga pertu`ouhdg perefigi`kdg beokh jepdt cdg pegadgaaurdg cdpdt cktefdg ydktu cegadg `egaebudrfdg feokldfdg nksfdb cdg feokldfdg `igeter (Dcd Sud, ?=4; cdbd` Dyu & Hdrydtk, ?=?=). ]egaebibddg feokldfdg nksfdb cdg `igeter

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Eneftir, ^ibu`e 1 Kssue ?, ?=?=, ]daes 484-4;= Zebegd _krk Obdgckgd, Dbvkg Giir Nktrkdg, Qubdg Zeptkydgk cdbd` ydga skgeraks dfdg `e`oerkfdg cd`pdf pisktkn cdg `egldad stdokbktds efigi`k ck `dsd pdgce`k cdbd` `egahdcdpk dgjd`dg resesk (D. I‛Zubbkvdg, ?==:). ?==:). Feokldfdg nksfdb oerpegadruh sejdrd skagknkfdg terhdcdp pricuftkvktds pebdfu UF@ `ebdbuk Feoerhdskbdg pegdgadgdg Jivkc-4; (Nerdgkfd & Hdrydtk, ?=?=). @ebdbuk feokldfdg nksfdb pe`erkgtdh `ebdfufdg renijuskga   feakdtdg cdg redbifdsk dgaadrdg. Cdbd` ldgafd pegcef feokldfdg terseout hdrus cknifusfdg pdcd pe`oerkdg odgtudg cdrurdt fepdcd pipubdsk ydga regtdg cdg oksgks ydga terfegd cd`pdf. ]e`erkgtdh `egaaugdfdg feokldfdg nksfdb ugtuf `e`perodkfk perefigi`kdg geadrd dfkodt Jivkc-4; ckdgtdrdgyd< 4.  ]dfet stk`ubus pertd`d UZC 1?5 lutd Neorudrk ?=?= ydga ckdbifdskfdg ugtuf `egcufuga kgcustrk pdrkwksdtd, pegerodgadg cdg pripertk. Ztk`ubus kgk luad ckdbifdskfdg ugtuf ru`dh tdgaad oerpegahdskbdg regcdh seodgydf UZC :?3 lutd. ?.  ]dfet stk`ubus fecud UZC 8,4 `kbkdr ckdbifdskfdg ugtuf pe`oeodsdg pdldf pegahdskbdg oeoerdpd peferld ck okcdga `dgundftur cdg `e`oerkfdg cksfig dtds pe`odydrdg pdldf perusdhddg `dgundftur. :.  ]dfet stk`ubus fetkad UZC ?3,5 `kbkdr ckdbifdskfdg ugtuf perdwdtdg fesehdtdg, perbkgcugadg siskdb cdg kgsegtkn pdldf. Ztk`ubus kgk oertuludg ugtuf `egkgafdtfdg `dgnddt cdg jdfupdg ydga beokh buds cdrk odgtudg siskdb ydga dcd ugtuf ru`dh tdgaad oerpegahdskbdg regcdh, sepertk odgtudg pdgadg, trdgsner tugdk oersydrdt cdg suoskck bkstrkf, cdg tugldgadg pegadgaaurdg ydga ckperbuds. 3.  ]dcd 48 @ek ?=?= stk`ubus efigi`k UZC 3: `kbkdr ckdbifdskfdg ugtuf `egcufuga 4? perusdhddg `kbkf geadrd, ckbdglutfdg cegadg pe`oerkdg suoskck pdcd pe`odydrdg fe`odbk pkgld`dg sefktdr >= lutd pe`kgld` cdg priard` pegaudtdg ldrkga pegad`dg siskdb. 5.  Feokldfdg ferkgadgdg cdg pe`oeodsdg pdldf sertd perjepdtdg pegae`odbkdg ]]G. >.  ]e`itigadg pe`odydrdg pdldf perusdhddg cdrk ?5% tdhug ?=?= `egldck ??% pdcd tdhug ?=?4 cdg ?=% ugtuf tdhug feudgadg ?=?? cdg seterusgyd. 1.  ]dfet stk`ubus nksfdb seoesdr UZC 15,1 `kbkdr cegadg dbifdsk cufugadg pegcdpdtdg bdgasuga seoesdr UZC >1,> `kbkdr. Zebdkg ktu, redbifdsk dgaadrdg ckbdfufdg ugtuf `e`oegtuf Dgaadrdg ]egcdgddg pegdgadgdg epkce`kj Jivkc-4; ckdgtdrdgyd pegaebudrdg ugtuf tkcdf `egcesdf odrdga cdg oebdgld `icdb ydga oufdg dpriprkirktds cdg oebu` ckregjdgdfdg (Hdskoudg et db., ?=?=). @egurut Gdryigi (?=?=), pe`erkgtdh Kgcigeskd `egaaugdfdg cdgd cdrk dgaadrdg terseout ugtuf `eredbksdskfdg oeoerdpd jdrd dtdu strdteak ugtuf6 4) ]egkgafdtdg cdyd ludb `dsydrdfdt6 ?) ]egkgafdtdg nifus pe`erkgtdh pdcd efigi`k `kfri6 :) Ztdokbktds Gkbdk Sufdr _upkdh ydga hdrus sebdbu ckldad6 3) ]e`oerkdg rebdfsdsk cdg kgsegtkn fepdcd `dsydrdfdt cdbd` rdgafd perputdrdg ricd efigi`k6 5) ]egaurdgadg dgafd pegadgaaurdg6 >) Fdpdsktds fudbktds ecufdsk fesehdtdg `dsydrdfdt. ]egcefdtdg-pegcefdtdg terseout ckd`okb ibeh ]e`erkgtdh Kgcigeskd fdregd `erupdfdg bdgafdh fruskdb cdbd` `egahdcdpk dgjd`dg resesk cdrk pdgce`k Jivkc-4; (Fdutsdr & Frksgdck, http:5?/oerdpd-lu`bdh>:5?/oerdpd-lu`bdh-u`f`-ck-kgcigesk u`f`-ck-kgcigeskddkgk-hktugadggyd#