Stocks on the move Gladiator Stocks
May 19, 2015
Cadila Healthcare ¾The stock weathered the recent market wide volatility while holding its key support and now appears set to resume its up trend offering a fresh entry opportunity to ride the larger bull trend II-Direct Direct Code
Action
Buying Range
Target
Stop Loss
CADHEA
Buy
1715-1733
1995
1595
Union Bank of India ¾The stock witnessed a strong rebound after taking support at the previous breakout area and 80% retracement of 2014 rally. Faster retracement of the preceding three week decline in just a week signals a bullish trend reversal I-Direct Code
Action
Buying Range
Target
Stop Loss
UNIBAN
Buy
159-163
185
148
Apcotex Industries ¾The stock has registered a breakout from five month consolidation signalling resumption of the primary uptrend after a healthy corrective phase I-Direct Code
Action
Buying Range
Target
Stop Loss
APCLAT
Buy
508 516 508-516
615
458
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Cadila DealHealthcare Team – (CADHEA): At Your Resumption Service of up trend after four week breather… CMP: | 1733.00
Buying range: | 1715 1715-1733 1733
Target: ge | 1995.00 995 00
Stop S op loss: o | 1595.00 595 00 2000
Weekly Bar Chart
The stock weathered recent volatility in equities while holding it’s key support. We expect the up move to resume and challenge g its life-time highs g of | 2000 in comingg weeks
1719 61 8% 61.8% @ 1650 1426
34 34-week k EMA Volumes expanding during rallies authenticate continued appetite for the stock
Weekly RSI bounced off it’s bull market support of 50 suggesting continuation of upward momentum
• The stock weathered volatile market conditions over past few weeks and looks set to resume its up trend offering fresh entry opportunity to ride overall up trend. Share price held above 61.8% retracement of it’s preceding up move (| 1426-2000) indicating continued buying support • We expect the share price to challenge it’s life-time high of | 2000 given the robust price structure and hence believe it offers decent reward/risk set up for positional traders. Volume behaviour is also in line with Dow theory principle and corroborates its overall up trend • The weekly RSI, which gauge the underlying momentum, signals continuation of upward bias over medium term as oscillator held above its’ own supportt ~ reading di off 50 Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on May 19, 2015 at 09:47 am
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Union (UNIBAN): Faster retracement DealBank Team – At Your Service of last falling segment signals trend reversal… CMP: | 161.00
Target: ge | 185.00 85 00
Buying range: | 159 159-163 163
Stop S op loss: o | 148.00 8 00 253
Weekly Candlestick Chart
50% retracement and previous breakdown area @185 183
Resistance
Support pp
134 131
130
Price bounced back taking support at the previous breakout area with a strong surge in volume of more than double of the 50 weeks average volume of 200 lakhs share per week
Weekly RSI has generated a bullish crossover above its nine period’s average thus validates positive trend in price
• The stock witnessed a strong rebound after taking support at the previous breakout area and 80% retracement of 2014 rally (| 100 to | 258) placed at | 131 levels. The stock has posted a faster retracement of the preceding three week decline in just one week to signal a bullish trend reversal. A sharp surge in weekly volumes, which was more than twice the 52 weeks average volume of 2crore shares per week during the price rally highlights the turnaround in sentiments and indicates strength in the up move • We expect the stock to continues its up move and retrace the 2015 decline (| 253 to | 130) by minimum 50% over the coming months, which opens the room for a up move towards | 185 levels Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on May 19, 2015 at 10:54 am
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Apcotex Industries (APCLET): month consolidation breakout… Deal Team – At Your Five Service CMP: | 516.00
Target: ge | 615.00 6 5 00
Buying range: | 508 508-516 516
Weekly Bar Chart
Breakout from five month consolidation signals resumption of primary uptrend after a healthy corrective phase
Stop S op loss: o | 458.00 58 00 123.6% retracement @ 615
575
415
426 Double Bottom formation at 38.2% retracement of major rally and 34 week EMA
180
34 week EMA Volume expansion accompanying price breakout highlights larger participation in the direction or primary trend
Weekly RSI has generated positive cross above its nine period average suggesting strength in the price breakout
• The stock has registered a breakout from five month consolidation signalling resumption of the primary uptrend after a healthy corrective phase. The correction off life-time high of | 575 got anchored at 38.2% retracement of preceding rally (| 180 to | 575) placed at | 425 levels. Confluence of rising 34-week EMA placed around | 430 made this a value area for the stock leading to a double bottom formation on weekly charts. Following the price breakout we expect the stock to take out its life-time high of | 575 and head towards | 615 over the coming months being the 123.6% retracement of the January – March correction (| 575 to | 415) • Among oscillators, oscillators the 14 week RSI has generated a positive crossover above its nine period average suggesting strength in the price breakout Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on May 19, 2015 at 10:49 am
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Strategy Follow up – April 2015 Rec. Date
Scrip Name
Rec Price
Target
Stoploss
% P/L
12-Jan-15
Bosch
12-Jan-15
Apollo Tyre
19,960.00
23,940.00
17,700.0
20.0
221.00
265.00
205.0
11.0
12-Jan-15 12-Feb-15
Gulf Oil
518.00
615.00
464.0
8.0
Oberoi Realty
274.00
333.00
254.0
22.0
12-Feb-15
Comment Target achieved Booked profit at 245.40 Booked profit at 560.00 Target Achieved
Britannia
1,935.00
2,250.00
1,790.0
16.0
Target achieved
12-Feb-15
DCB Bank
112.00
135.00
103.0
12.0
Booked profit at 125.50
12-Feb-15
TV Today
Booked profit at 261
3-Mar-15
United Spirit
3-Mar-15 3-Mar-15
238.00
285.00
216.0
10.0
3,500.00
4,030.00
3,240.0
15.0
Target Achieved
M&M Financial
260.00
310.00
242.0
0.8
Closed at cost
Ashika Buildcon
179.00
210.00
169.0
-5.5
Stoploss Triggered
3-Mar-15
Karur Vysaya
585.00
685.00
548.0
-6.0
Stoploss Triggered
8-Apr-15
HSIL
442.00
525.00
403.0
-1.1
Exit at 437.00
8-Apr-15
United Spirit
3,930.00
4,450.00
3,630.0
-8.0
Stoploss Triggered
8-Apr-15
NBCC
1,000.00
1,150.00
920.0
-8.0
Stoploss Triggered
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Product highlights Deal Team – At
Your Service
•
The key objective of this product is to provide multiple actionable stock ideas providing decent return potential from a medium term perspective. The report would highlight interesting chart patterns using various technical parameters. Consequently, we would formulate requisite trading strategies to ride the possible future price action
•
Return objective – 10% to 20%
•
Time horizon – 3 months
•
Frequency of report – Based on opportunity and suitable risk/reward ratio
Research Analysts Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, CMT Dipesh Dagha Pabitro Mukherjee Vinayak Parmar
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] vinayak parmar@icicisecurities com
[email protected]
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Notes… • • •
It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis. The recommendations are valid for three to six months and in case we intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail.
Trading g portfolio p allocation • • • •
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation For example: The ‘Daily Daily Calls Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
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Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation Product
Allocations Product wise Max allocation in allocation 1 Stock
Return Objective Number of Calls
Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks
Duration
Daily Calls
8%
2-3%
3-4 Stocks
0.5-1%
2-3%
Intraday
Short term Delivery
6%
3-5%
7-10 Per Months
4-5%
7-10%
Opportunity Based
Weekly Calls
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Weekly Technicals
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Monthly Call
15%
5%
2-3 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Monthly Technical
15%
2-4%
5-8 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Techno Funda
15%
5-10%
1-2 Stocks
10% and above 15% and above
6 Months
Technnical Breakout
15%
5 10% 5-10%
1 2 Stocks 1-2
10% and above 15% and above
3 6 Months 3-6
Cash
10% 100%
-
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Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
[email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected]
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Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector b k and bank d has h its i various i subsidiaries b idi i engaged d in i businesses b i off housing h i fi finance, asset management, life lif insurance, i generall insurance, i venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. notice The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Nonrated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances . This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. circumstances The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason.
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Disclaimer ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. performance Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. report It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged g g in various financial service businesses, they y might g have financial interests or beneficial ownership p in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.
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