soccer trading strategies.pdf

Trading Football Strategies - August 2012 DRAW NO BET(DNB) Description: Eliminate the draw Like the Asian Handicap this market removes the draw from the three possible outcomes home win/away win/draw Consequently the odds on both teams are less than the odds in the MO market. If you BACK Team A and they win....you win the bet if match is a draw then your stake is refunded. You don`t win and you don`t lose If Team B win you lose your stake. Note: DNB can be traded in-play. But beware of often poor liquidity so chose high profile games where there is at least £20K in the market Selection criteria: Teams to be evenly priced in MO market Staking: You can take insurance on CS pre match Example: BACK Team A DRAW NO BET @ 2.0 £100 BACK Team B Correct Score.... e.g 0-2 £25 AND 1-2 for £25 Tip: The odds on Draw No Bet should be identical to 0 on the Asian Handicap market. Sometimes you will notice a difference in these 2 markets and this presents an opportunity to execute an arbitrage trade

CoverS and CunderS Description: The classic 2 market strategy. CoverS : BACK OVER 2.5 goals + BACK 3 or perhaps 4 of the following: 0-0/0-1/1-0/0-2/2-0/1-1 CunderS: BACK UNDER 2.5 goals + BACK 3 or perhaps 4 of the following 1-2/21/2-2/3-1/3-0/AUQ Selection criteria: Odds on either Over on Under should not be less than 1.90 Staking: Decide what your prematch preference is regarding the result. Weight your stakes accordingly Example: BACK Unders @2.0 £100;

BACK CS high scores for a combined (dutched) total of £70 In this case favouring Under 2.5 as the most likely result

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Correct Score Description:The King of football trading strategies. All other football markets are linked to the Correct Score market. Some prefer to select just one scoreline and hope for the best and build their trade around that. Others use 5 or more scorelines with a bias towards higher or lower scores The important point to bear in mind is that you may often have to back other scores or top up existing scores as the match progresses Selection criteria:Take the middle ground and always include 1-1 as one of your selections particularly if you have chosen a match with evenly priced teams. Staking: If you select multiple scorelines then leave more green on the middle scores, e.g 2-0/1-2/1-1. This will help when you begin to lay inplay

Multiples Description: Placing 2 draw doubles & 1 draw treble on Betfair Multiple coupon. Very complicated, frankly, as variables are enormous given we are trading 3 matches. Best explained on a video which you can view by clicking on the icon above Selection criteria: Look for matches where Draw odds are about 3.4ish Games selected MUST start at different KO times Staking: New Traders start with 3 x £3 doubles and 1 x £2 treble

The Full Monty Description: Similar to the SHS, the Full Monty can be jumped on at HT. Looking for 4 shots on target or more based on Bet365 stats inplay we are looking for games that are 0-0 at HT which promise goals second half based on stats, head to heads, recent matches Use: 2nd half

Selection criteria: 4 or more shots on target and as above criteria Staking and markets: 0-0 at HT we Lay under 2.5 at anything up to 1.28 for £30/£60 IF game is still 0-0 when draw hits 2s we LTD to cover the red on 2.5 market. This way a late goal will give us as good as scratch Soon as a goal is scored green the match odds and hope for another so you can green the 2.5 market too. Two goals from 46th to 80th minute is what you're looking for and many games will fall into this category

Scatter Gun Description: Backing 1-1/2-1/1-2 Selection criteria: When assessing matches for this strategy check two markets first before looking at CS. Firstly, look for match odds of no lower than 1.8 for the favourite, and also look at U2.5 being around 1.9 - 2.1. If these criteria are met you will find more times than not that 1-1 is trading at between 7 and 8.5 and the other two at about 11-13. You would then usually back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount you're backing the other two for - so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the game is still 0-0 after half an hour look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30. What can go wrong? When assessing any Correct Score trades it's sensible to look at what might go wrong and by so doing assess your 'danger scores'. We can then work out how to deal with them. The first, and most distressing, danger is the dreaded 0-0! The easiest way to alleviate this score is by backing and laying the same amount pre-match trying to make 1 or 2 ticks. By trading pre-match your stake itself is safe - the only danger is that the price moves against you rather than for you. Experience shows that if you back 0-0 with about 30 to 45 minutes to go you will usually get at least one tick movement. There are no guarantees - but often you can get between £35 and £50 'free' sitting on 0-0. In-play you can either just leave your money sitting on 0-0 or lay some of it off as the price of 0-0 drops. There are only really two other main dangers; first that no goal is scored until very late in the game and the 1-1 price doesn't come in enough to lay it off profitably, the second that two goals come very early in the game resulting, again, in insufficient price movements. An absolute goalfest is always a possiblity, if you are nervous about that why not look at taking some cover in the U/O goal markets?

In-play trading There are a number of ways this strategy can be traded in-play. In an ideal world the game would play out thus: dogs score first, bringing the 1-1 in. Favourites equalise at about 60 minutes - enabling a green of 1-1 to cover all stakes and give a profit on all scores. Then you can either green up across the board, or wait for a 1-2 or 2-1. At this stage you are effectively laying the draw with absolutely no downside! If you'd had the foresight to back 2-2 as well as the other scores you'd be laughing all the way to the bank if 2-1 or 1-2 comes before the 80th minute! That's the ideal - and they happen surprisingly often. There are danger points to consider and you need to have a plan... Two quick goals bringing the score to 0-2 or 2-0 can be tricky as two thirds of your trade is gone in a flash. There's little you can do here - except to hedge your remaining bet and walk away - or you could stand firm if you're prepared for the fact that 3-0 or 0-3 (or staying the same until the end) will lose your entire stake. Another precaution might be to take a small bet on the Next Goal market - or if those goals are early in the game you could lay O2.5 goals at a very low price to guard against the game staying the same. The game is 0-0 at half time...and you have no 0-0 cover as discussed above. Two choices really - hedge for a small loss or stand firm and hope for goals second half. You could consider backing 0-0 1-0 0-1 maybe to cover your stakes... use the 'what-if' on BF to see how to stake - but it will eat a lot of your potential profit! The game is 0-0 at 80 mins and you have no 0-0 cover - consider hedging for a larger loss, and maybe lay 0-0 for the red amount - it obviously increases your exposure but if the game is won 1-0 or 0-1 puts you in a scratch position. There are other banana skins - but the beauty of this trade, when it works, is that the return is generally pretty good. SUMMARY ·Evenly matched games - home side no lower than 1.8 U2.5 around evens ·Set an amount of money / % of bank you are prepared to LOSE - work the rest of your plan out with that figure in mind. ·Try to get some free money on 0-0 pre-match ·Stakes should be around a straight dutch on 1-1 1-2 2-1 ·0-0 25 - 30 mins put a small amount on 2-2 ·If a goal is scored I would usually try to lay half my total stakes on the 1-1 scoreline UNLESS the dog scores against the run of play ·1-1 is where the paydirt starts. Green completely on 1-1 - will probably give an overall green on all scores. Then you can either let the other 2/3 ride for a while, or hedge all bets and go down the pub / move on to the next game! ·0-0 HT - a) hedge for small loss or b) stand firm or c) cover 0-0 1-0 0-1 ·0-0 80 mins hedge for larger loss (unless 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 covered) and maybe lay 0-0 to cover that loss.. The most important thing to remember is this:

If a trade goes against you - DO SOMETHING POSITIVE to reduce / minimise your liabilities and losses. Don't sit there like a rabbit in the headlights - think outside the box - are there any other markets that might come to your rescue? Staking: Back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount I'm backing the other two for - so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the game is still 0-0 after half an hour I normally look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30. SHS Description: This strategy involves laying the draw at odds no greater than 2s. When the goal comes trade out for an even green all round. If a goal does not come accept the loss as 0-0 results will happen! By following the below criteria you will have far more green screens than red screens. Bet365 covers most games and shows inplay stats like Shots on Target etc. Use: 2nd half Description 2 If score is 0-0 LTD at odds of 2.40, 2s and 1.60. Lay £15 at 2.40, £15 at 2s and £15 at 1.60. 0-0 hits 2.40 usually around 55 mins. Some prefer to drip lay the £££ in at odds of 2s, 1.50, 1.25 for even stakes, (£25 each etc). By doing it this way and with so many late goals you can hit the JACKPOT with a goal last kick of the match which will yield £75 return using the above stakes or £45. Personal choice which one to use. Selection criteria: Check stats/H2H/recent results...and if watching the game make a judgment as to whether you think there will be a goal or not if current score is 0-0. 5 or more Shots on Target around 60 minutes. is a reasonable indicator to think a goal or two will be scored. OR at least 4 SOT at HT. Best to avoid games where a red card has been shown. Staking: Personal choice e.g £ LTD £20. If goal then back draw to hedge for a profit.Or use other stake % as per above examples. This strategy had a strike rate of 63% last season. I like the SHS strategy - but you can play it slightly differently. Same selection criteria, but lay the CS rather than LTD. Use the same risk as LTD so if odds 2.0 laying £10 to a £10 risk, lay lower stake because clearly the CS odds will be higher.

If favourite scores first - immediate 100% profit, which will be around the same £s as the green on the LTD - depending on the goal time profit could be more than the LTD If no goals - loss same as LTD Real benefit - if dog scores first, still 100% profit on CS - but the LTD becomes sticky - again depending on goal time. Final benefit - it's a straight punt - Bet & Go - no trading - so no match watching.

Alternative SHS An alternative to the regular SHS (Suggsy Halftime Strategy) is to lay at three different prices, 2, 1.5 and 1.25 for the same stakes i.e. £10, £10, £10. Looking at the top leagues in England, Spain and Germany and for each of the last 3 seasons MORE goals are scored from 76 to 90 mins, (plus you have benefit of injury time). So this makes perfect sense to have lays in for the whole game and NOT coming out at 1.5 as with the SHS and missing out on a late goal. A late goal will see the draw shoot out massively allowing us almost 100% ROI. The price of 2s is hit around 60-65 minutes into a game if the score is 0-0. By submitting a first lay at this price you're in the game for best part of 30 minutes. 1.5 is reached around 75 to 80 mins, so you can potentially be putting your second lay in and have around 15 mins for a goal. 1.25 is reached around 88 mins and into injury time giving around 5 to 7 minutes of a chance of a goal. A late goal with all 3 lays in is happy days! Currently the average strike rate is 64% Here are stats from the 2009/10 season showing the same outcome at HT and FT Pr League 0-0 32 % 1-1 17.5 % (!) 1-0 17 % 0-1 21 % 2-0 24 % Bundesliga 0-0 30 % 1-1 22 % Serie A

0-0 27 % 1-1 29 % So food for thought for the 1-1 as well as the 0-0s. Stats taken from soccervista.com Games to avoid French leagues and games with a red card in them. Good luck, we've already made money via this strat, so let's continue!

The Clint Description: A variation on CoverS. Back Over 2.5 + back 1-1, (sometimes split 1-1 and 2-0 to fave 50-50 staking) + Scalp Under 1.5 (or back it for newcomers) We now back 2-1 and 2-2 OR just 2-2, (with evenly matched sides) Use: 1st half Selection criteria: Choose games where you think will be goals with 1-1 as cover. Over 2.5 should be 1.90 min to back. With certain games if you feel 2-0 is a strong possibility split the 1-1 and 2-0 cover., ie £5 and £5 or £10 and £10. Staking: Back Over 2.5 £35/£70;1-1 £5/£10 (2-0 optional if strong fave involved then split with 1-1, ie £3 on each), 2-1 £5 OR 2-1 £3 and £ on 2-2 Back Under 1.5 for £12/£24 If you can Scalp Under 1.5 and have that covered it leaves you in a very strong position.

Nugget Nibble Use: 1st half Description: BACK 2-2 with 0-0 as insurance. Works best with evenly matched teams in MO market. 2-2 price should be no less than 16.0 · If score is 0-0 at 30 mins - odds will be around 6.0 if pre-match odds were 11.0 LAY enough to leave small red on CS except large green on 2-2. · If goal is scored before 30mins then LAY 2-2 to green up or at least leave 0 on all scores except large green on 2-2 Selection criteria: Staking: 0-0 50% of 2-2 stakes; BACK 0-0 £20 BACK 2-2 £40

Metaltone Use: 1st half Description: You LTD but the underdog scores first. What can you do ? 1.) Back the current draw odds for 50% of your initial lay bet 2.) Lay the team that scored for 75% of your initial lay bet This will greatly reduce your liabilities and give you a big green on the team that is behind. Should the team that is behind score an equaliser, lay them off so you profit a bit on each result (NOTE: you won't be able to equalise the profit, so you'll have to play around with a number that works. Usually, I lay for the liability I have on the Draw which means I break even if there is a draw and make a profit if one of the teams goes on to win) By way of example, let's say the odds to lay the draw are 3.75 and I put £20 on it, giving me a liability of £55 on the draw and green of £20 on either team winning. The underdog scores and their lay odds go down to 1.9 but the draw odds (to back) only go up to 3.65. Back the draw @ 3.65 for £10 (50% of £20) and lay the leading team @ 1.90 for £15 (75% of £20). You now have a £13.65 liability on the draw, a £3.50 liability on the team that scored and a green of £25 on the team that is behind (which is hopefully the favourite). Worst-case scenario is that you will lose £3.50, because if there is an equaliser you will be able to lay off the £25 green to make a guaranteed profit/break-even on any result. It has been suggested the trick is to pick the right games. Look at teams statistics on SoccerStats.com, particularly their head-to-head, but also their recent form as indicated by their last 8 games. Also look for few draws in their H2H and in their recent form and teams who tend to score in the first half which you can see from these stats too. Selection criteria: Look for games where one of the teams is below 2.00, the other teams is 4.00 or above and the draw is no higher than 3.75 Staking: Personal choice but adhere to the % advised.

Gundulfs Gateux Description: LAY heavy favourite in the HALF TIME MATCH ODDS market prematch and exit the trade when the BACK odds are higher, enabling you to green up. The rate at which the odds move in this market is greater than seen in the regular MO market. Bigger profits - especially if the dog scores first - but less time to recover should the trade go against you. Look to exit trade after 15/20 minutes.

Selection criteria: Favourites should be less than 2.0 in the HALF TIME market. More than this then your liabilities could be quite severe Staking: Personal choice Example: when still 0-0 after 15/20 minutes. LAY FAV @ 1.75 £100 BACK @ 2.0 £87.50 25 tick profit = £12.50 Example: 0-1 to the dog a) Let the trade run and hope the favourite does not equalise or even score 2 or more in the time left remaining. Very risky...and greedy! b) BACK the favourite to leave equal green on all 3 outcomes - Home/Away/Draw. The easiest of the 3 options c) BACK 1-1 & 2-1. A little more complicated as it depends on the prices currently available.

Nearly All Covered (NAC) Description: Nearly All Covered describes this strategy perfectly We lay Over 2.5 and back Over 3.5 with some CS cover....generally (small on 2-1) 31, 2-2 and AUQ Use: 1st half Criteria: Strong home side trading up to 1.50 who score but also concede. We want goals! Arbing one market off against the other. Backing at bigger price and laying off at lower price on other market. Ideally we want 4 goals in the game so we hit the jackpot from Over 3.5 as well profit from 3-1, 2-2 or AUQ. Away dog scores first we have 2-2 as cover. Other scores can be backed in conjunction with back over 3.5 as goals go in. 0-3, 1-3, 2-3 are very unusual with such a strong home favourite. Look for the top solid sides who score and concede. You're looking for 3-1, 2-2, AUQ as potential results. Staking: BACK Under 2.5 at 2.2 plus for £10. BACK Over 3.5 at 2.4 plus for £15. Back 3-1, 2-2, 2-1, AUQ for a total of £20. (Spread the green.) 2-1 should be left as scratch as you're expecting 4 or more goals. FT scores of AUQ, 3-1, 2-2 you win on 2 of the 3 markets.

The Lazy Lamb / The Lazy Lion Description: The ‘Lazy’ is probably the closest thing to a ‘set and go’ strategy for trading strong favourites. It involves backing certain scores in the Correct Score market and then laying an odds on favourite in the Match Odds market.

Returns are relatively low, but in return, it is usually a trade requiring very little tweaking in play. Use: In-play Selection criteria: The only selection criterion is an odds on favourite, so much the better if that is also the home side. The more heavily odds on they are the better as well! This strategy can also be employed in-play when the favourite has taken the lead by 1 goal or more. It is safer to to use in the 2nd half as you will need less scorelines to cover in the CS market Method: Assuming favourites are the home team, dutch back 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 31 in Correct Score. Then lay the favourites in Match Odds for your total stake. Easy! If the match finishes with one of those scorelines you make a small green, if the underdog wins or the game is drawn it is a scratch trade. DANGERS:The only dangers to this trade are the 3-2 and Any Unquoted scorelines – so you might need to cover these in play by either backing them or by laying u3.5 or u4.5 goals. The Lion Lazy: A variation of the Lazy Lamb for those whose risk / reward threshold allows a slightly riskier trade. A favourite trading at 1.6 or less should really be expected to a) win the game and b) score at least two goals. That is a bold statement, but is the premise for this variation. Selection criteria: As above, but ideally favourite 1.6 or lower. METHOD: Again assuming home team are favourites back 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 in Correct Score. This can either be dutched, or you might decide to weight it n favour of 3-0 or 3-1 if you are confident about goals coming. Lay favourites in Match Odds for half the Correct Score stake (optional – alternative for an even riskier trade is to lay favourites at 1-0!)

DANGERS: 1-0 is now added to the problem scores list, but you are also still exposed to 3-2 and AU, and to the dog scoring first. The latter is a bigger problem, of course, if you have elected not to lay the favourite for 50% of CS stakes. Last modified on Friday, 03 August 2012 13:59

Bingo Special Description: Laying current score or occasionally Match Odds This tactic is played when the game is in injury time and we look to lay at a price of 1.20 or less. The percentage of goals scored in injury time seems to be increasing (particularly at Old Trafford some would cynically point out!) It is to be fair more of a punt than a ingenious strategy yet your reading of a game in those last often frantic minutes can persuade you to take a chance that there will another goal.

What is the upside? Laying @ 1.20 equates to you needing to be right only once every five times you try it. The downside is, well, not too severe frankly as you are buying a bet very cheaply. Wager £2 to win £10. Sounds reasonable Use: Late 2nd half Criteria: Only lay the current score if there is just one goal difference between the sides. 2-0 with 3 mins to go often means the dog have given up and the home side will not be overly pressing. Exceptions can be found in 2 leg matches in certain UEFA league competitions Staking: Two approaches can be taken here: 1. Lay @ 1.20 for whatever sum you are comfortable with potentially losing 2. Drip lay: Begin your lays @ 1.50 for £10....then lay again @ 1.25 for £20....then a final lay @ 1.15 for £40. Your maximum loss can be £16 if the score remains the same. The profit however if all 3 lays are matched and a goal is scored would be £70 Last modified on Friday, 03 August 2012 13:58

Adster Aperitif Description: BACK 2-1 scoreline, preferably to home side. Insurance optional. (don't bother unless sticking £50 on 2-1 then put £10 on 0-0) Options based on game situation, (Bet365 allows in-play stats like shots on target, corners), either hedge at HT if 0-0 for loss of half initial stake IF game is 0-0 at 60-65 minutes apply the SHS and only the game ending 0-0 will damage you If goals go in either lay favourite in NG market, BACK under 1.5 or just LAY 2-1 for green Alternative if price not available before KO. Back in play at 10s or more to home favourite for personal stakes like £25, £5 on 2-2 optional £5 on 0-0 Use: 1st half Selection Criteria: Match Odds between 1.60 to 2.10; 2-1 minimum odds of 10s Staking: £50 and above take insurance of £10 on 0-0; Staking less than above exit trade for a loss at HT if 0-0, OR apply SHS as above

Scalping Description: If the Scatter Gun is a handy way to rob a dime store, Scalping is the Magnum 44 that will help you rob the bank. An essential weapon in the trader`s armoury it is advised to learn this technique thoroughly. It offers instant cover against any liabilities you have on any trade. Selection criteria: The following markets are the best in our opinion: Under 1.5/2.5 Current correct score Current next score Draw in match odds The under 1.5 is a personal favourite for scalping. On an average game the under 1.5 price will be around 3.6 to back. By half time this price will halve if the score is 0-0, in fact the under 1.5 will be the same, (or near as) at half time as the starting price of the under 2.5. So let's consider this...........if it starts at 3.6 then it will drop around 40 ticks per 10 mins on average to reach it's 1.8 at half time. So how is the best way to use this information? The following are % of goals scored in the first 15 minutes this season. Premier C/ship Spain France Italy Germany

11% 13.6% 10.6% 11.4% 14% 14.8%

(Above foreign figures for their top leagues only) So we’re looking on average around 12.5% there will be a goal in the first 15 minutes which equates to 1 game in 8.…………Which is pretty good in our favour! What else helps with scalping? Live games that you are watching are a must! Trading blind is far too dangerous. How do you know where the ball is? How do you know what is happening in the game? Have there been many chances? To trade blindly really should be avoided. Even streamed matches have various delays of 10 seconds to 3 minutes…………. Look for the gaps. As we can see here with a little under 2 hours to the match there are gaps already. This will be similar once the game goes in play…………

Example; Whilst trading a live game with regards to the under 1.5 various tips were given out to members. The game was an African Nations game it was about 5 minutes old the score was still 0-0. The price on the under 1.5 was 3.20. A back was submitted at 3.20 which was quickly matched and the lay was instantly put on at 3.10, 2 ticks lower. This was taken within 30 seconds at a point of the game where the ball was in the goalkeepers hands and was safe. There was very little money in the queue so the lay bet was going to be taken quickly as it was at the front of the queue. Then resubmitted at 3.05 to back after spotting very little money below this and big gaps in the market. Once taken the lay side again was submitted at 2.94 and taken within a minute. Lastly the price from 2.90 to 2.54 took about 45 seconds and I was in there for that as well So in summary: First 15 minutes are safest. Look for the gaps, try for better prices and once bet taken instantly resubmit on lay side 2 or 3 ticks lower. When the price is over 3 the drops are in .5s so using £50 stakes you will make £2.50 per tick made or £1 for £20 stakes which is 2.5 times better than when the price drops below 3s. If you do get caught you’re not totally out of it as 2 goals are needed for you to lose your stake unlike scalping the current correct score where a goal will lose your entire stake. IF this happens choices are to trade out for a loss when market settles or back bigger scores leaving it open or lastly waiting for it to drop before laying off for a smaller loss……….. By being at the front of the queue you will be matched quicker. Whilst liquidity is important in any market, gaps and bets matched quickly happens a lot more regularly for the under 1.5. Scalping under 2.5 A safer method where a goal won’t be as costly but the drops of course will not be as quick. In the first 10 minutes of a game drops can be anything up to 25 ticks………. Gaps are not as apparent due to more liquidity and the unders scalping is a favourite for many traders. Scalping the current draw price in match odds There used to be a premise where in a game where the score was 0-0 those that used a well known lay the draw trading method would be offloading around 60 to 65 minutes

and the 0-0 price would drop sharply……….Whether this still holds weight is anyone’s guess although it is true that a lot of ‘draw layers’ will trade out around this period and the price will come crashing in. Something to look out for, but again live pictures with a feel for the game is recommended. Scalping the 0-0 This can pay handsome dividends, more so when the price is over 10s and a £20 back and lay 1 tick profit will give you £10 green on the 0-0 scoreline. Scalping early on into a game is recommended for this reason as well as mentioned above, ie the lack of goals being scored in this timeframe………..But of course getting caught on 0-0 will lose your stakes. Perhaps consider using it with a back on the 2-0 and 0-2 scorelines to give you some insurance in case of a goal. Scalping the 1-0 and 0-1 Beauty of this is both prices will come in for majority of first half/a goal is scored. And if done simultaneously if you are caught you will lose on one but there’s a good chance the price on the other will come in to allow a hedging off……… Conclusion Scalping is a great way of giving profits or using it as insurance on another trade within that game. If you’re new to scalping try smaller stakes and learn to nip in and out, try and get in and out asap. Less time you’re in less risk of being caught. Make sure you have one eye on the tv so you know where the ball is in play. Look for the gaps and where the amounts are small. Soon as your back bet is taken submit on lay side straight away. Being at the front of the queue means less time and less risk with an open trade.