Sample Thesis Draft

Analysis on the Effectivity of the Extension of R-1 Manila-Cavite Toll Expressway in Reducing Traffic Flow in Aguinaldo Highway-Bacoor

A research proposal presented to the faculty of Civil Engineering College of Engineering, Architecture and Technology De La Salle University-Dasmariñas City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines

In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Course Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering

Submitted by: Mandigma, Mark Jannon O. Mergal, Juddel Mariz E. Sistoso, Dan Mark L.

March 2012

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 – The Problem and its Background 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Statement of the Problem 1.3 Research Objectives 1.4 Significance of the Study 1.5 Scope and Limitation 1.6 Study/Conceptual Framework 1.7 Definition of Terms Chapter 2 – Review of Related Literature 2.1 Present Conditions of Infrastructures in Bacoor 2.2 Travel Demand Forecasts 2.3 Freeway Sections 2.4 Capacity 2.5 Generated Impact 2.6 Level of Service for Freeway Sections Chapter 3 – Methodology 3.1 Input 3.1.1 Geometric Design 3.1.2 Socio-economic Profile 3.1.3 Vehicle Count 3.2 Process

List of Figures Figure 1.1 Conceptual Framework Figure 3.1 Methodological Framework List of Tables Table 2.1 Adjustment for Lane Width Table 2.2 Adjustment for Right-Shoulder Lateral Clearance Table 2.3 Adjustment for Number of Lanes Table 2.4 Adjust for Interchange Density Table 2.5 Definition of each level of service Table 2.6 Criteria for each level of service

ABSTRACT Traffic congestion in Coastal Road going to Talaba, Bacoor and Zapote road has been a way of life for passengers entering and passing the intersection. Passengers are used to the “buhos system”, it is the type of traffic system implemented by the traffic management in Bacoor wherein only one direction in the intersection is free flow while the others are stopped (even if two directions can cross the intersection in one phase). On the year April 2011, a new extension road located at the reclaimed area of Talaba, Bacoor City connecting the 1st district of Cavite such as Kawit, Noveleta and Manila Coastal Road is being implemented and called the “R-1 Manila Cavite Toll Expressway” or simply “CAVITEX”. The accessibility of Cavitex for passengers originated or destined to Kawit will lessen the flow of traffic in Bacoor- Zapote intersection, but during the peak hour period, heavy traffic flow congestion still remains in the intersection road. We can say that the effectivity of the Cavitex freeway is not yet observed. But can this (ManilaCavite Expressway) help in minimizing the traffic congestion? By generating the present and future travel demand models, expected traffic volume in the traffic analysis zones (Bacoor, Kawit, etc) can be concluded and capacity and level of services can be classified.

CHAPTER 1 THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND

1.1

Introduction Emilio Aguinaldo Hi- way is the busiest road in Cavite, (among the two major

roads such as Governor’s Drive and A. Soriano HI way) especially at the Bacoor part where passengers experience bottleneck condition. Over the years, traffic congestion at this road has been a way of life for Caviteños as this road is one of the entry way from Manila going to other parts of Cavite and vice versa. Almost 40,000 vehicles are using the road every day and passengers have to bear the “buhos (one-way traffic) system” being implemented (especially during rush hours) at the intersections wherein one side of the road in the intersection will cross for 20 minutes while other path is stopped. For drivers, it takes more than an hour to three hours (depending on peak hours) for them to pass Talaba, Bacoor area. Just as this year, the 6.1 km (4.1 mi) R-1 Extension of the Manila-Cavite Toll Expressway is now in full operation to accommodate travelers to use this bridge. The P5.7 billion government project funded by the UEM-MARA Phils Corp. connects Coastal Road to Cavite. A travel time of 20 minutes is consumed in reaching Kawit area unlike before that reaches an hour and a half. This Extension has been a relief for residents, workers in the Northern part of Cavite for the accessibility of road in delivering products and services on a minimum time, other transportation facilities such as Ninoy Aquino International Airport and Manila Port Area became nearer for them.

Development of a town can be seen by the improvements in its transportation facilities. The more accessible it gets, the higher the chances to accommodate more people to put up business, commercial/industrial establishments or even reside in this place. For the province of Cavite, its location is within the Greater Manila Area, making it more accessible to the business districts because of the Expressways constructed on the boundaries between Manila and Cavite. The large increase of population, traffic volume, delay and road capacity became a major problem especially in the Bacoor-Las Pinas boundary. Considering the newly constructed highway bridge (CAVITEX), the study will assess how the traffic flow in CAVITEX contributes to the traffic congestion in BacoorZapote intersection road. 1.2

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

The growing number of population and development of towns in Cavite contributes more to the increase of vehicles flowing at the Bacoor intersection. The community has to deal with it, with these developments, improvement of roads and highways must be proportional to the economy’s growth also. From these situations the study came up to the questions:

1.

How many vehicles are going to Kawit, Noveleta, Tanza, Cavite City (1st

District of Cavite) in proportion with the number of vehicles going from Coastal Road to Bacoor? 2.

Is CAVITEX effective in reducing traffic congestion in Aguinaldo

Highway especially during peak hours? 3.

Is the Extension Road sustainable for future travel demand?

1.3

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The study aims to analyze the effect of the traffic situation at the Bacoor

intersection at the times when Cavite Extension Tollway is not yet existed and after the transportation facility is built. 1. To determine the volume of vehicles going to the 1st District of Cavite with relation to the volume of vehicles in Aguinaldo Highway-Bacoor. 2. To determine the effectivity of CAVITEX in decreasing traffic congestion in Aguinaldo Highway-Bacoor. 3. To determine the sustainability of the infrastructure (Manila- Cavite R-1 Expressway).

1.4

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Going to Manila from Cavite using the Bacoor-Zapote road consumes much time for the passengers especially during peak hours. By doing this research, we can understand the impact of Cavitex to the resolve traffic congestion in the intersection road. The study also provides data for future travel demand in the areas connected in the Manila-Cavite Expressway. This is also for civil engineering students to be aware of the factors that affect traffic modeling. 1.5

SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS

The study will focus on the roads and bridges entering from Manila to Cavite using E. Aguinaldo highway-Bacoor, Coastal Road, Tirona Highway, Soriano Highway. Also, the study is focused on the travel demand (due to population growth,

developments), road characteristics and analysis of freeway capacity.

Other

transportation projects/infrastructures to be constructed are not considered in the study. 1.6CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Figure 1.1 indicates the steps to be done in order to come up with the comparison of the data results.

Gathering of data and old data of the intersection for comparison

Surveys and experiments needed in the area to be studied

Generating models using the informations gathered (Travel Demand Forecast)

Capacity Analysis

Comparison of Results

Figure 1.1 Conceptual Framework

CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

2.1 Present conditions of Infrastructures in Bacoor Bacoor serves as the gateway for motorists from entering the northern Cavite area. Because of its location, improvements in transportation infrastructures are necessary to accommodate large volume of vehicles. Municipality of Bacoor has been experiencing traffic congestion since 1990s on the part of Zapote-Aguinaldo Hiway and because of this, the government constructed the Coastal Road Expressway but traffic congestion later developed in the area. This made the road unsustainable for the new generation and increased number of people residing in Cavite. Many projects are being planned and not yet constructed by the government including the signalization of the intersections, new

road construction and extension of Light Rail Transit (LRT). From the projects being planned, the construction of the new bridge highway going from Coastal Road Bacoor to Kawit,Cavite (and vice versa) is already established and implemented (Comprehensive Land Use Plan for the Municipality of Bacoor City). 2.2 Travel Demand Forecasts Forecasting future travel demand involves the estimation of the capacity of vehicles (passenger cars) that is circulatng at the specified area of study at a given time. Process in measuring travel demand forecasting includes socio-economic data such as population, motorists’ or passengers’ scharacteristics, car ownership etc. There are two approaches in travel demand forecasting, the urban area travel demand and the intercity case (Garber and Hoel, 2002). In urban area travel demand, this considers the trip

maker’s characteristics such as income, population density in the area to be studied in choosing destination and types of transportation to use. While the second approach is about the intercity cases wherein the study focuses on greater extent travel forecasting which includes data of city population, average city income and travel time between cities. The most important procedure in travel demand forecasting is the “Four Step Model (FSM)” which includes (a) Trip Generation, (b) Trip Distribution, (c) Modal Split and (d) Trip Assignment. Trip generation, answers the the question “how many trips?”, it is the process of determining the number of trips that will begin or end in each zones within the area of study (Garber and Hoel, 2002). This first step in travel forecasts relates the relationship between the urban activity and the use of transportation system, it is determining the number of trips generated from the production trips to attraction trips only not considering the length and time spent in making trips. The analyzation of present trip generation will also be used in developing the future trip generation (Federal Highway Administration, Trip Generation Analysis, 1975). Trip Distribution, on the other hand, answers the question “where will trips go?”, this process is used to allocate or distribute trips from each zone (origin) to other zones (destination) using methods such as gravity model, growth factor models, fratar method, etc. The third step in travel demand forecasting, the mode choice which answers the question “how do trips go?”, this process determines the number (or percentage) of trips that uses transit or automobile. This defines the characteristics of the passenger and motorists on the number of trips for each mode of transportation, it considers financial matters, time, or convenience. The last step in FSM is the route assignment, which answers “what roads to take”, which allocates

the route that the private and public vehicle will use to maintain the traffic volume in each zones. 2.3 Freeway Sections Freeway is an uninterrupted flow of vehicles wherein no signalized, atgrade intersections are permitted and congestion only occurs when entering or leaving the freeway. Basic free flow condition should have the following characteristics (Garber and Hoel): (a) Lanes are 12 ft. wide. (b) Lateral clearance between the edge of a right lane and an obstacle is 6 ft. or greater. (c) There are no trucks, buses or RVs in the traffic stream. (d) Ten or more lanes (in urban areas only). (e) Interchanges are spaced at least 2 mi. apart. (f) Grades do not exceed 2 percent. (g) Drivers are familiar with the freeway.

2.4 Capacity Capacity is the maximum density of vehicles that the pavement can carry, this also involves quantitative measurement to determine the capability of the road section to carry traffic. For the capacity of freeway, it is the maximum sustained 15-min rate of flow, expressed in passenger cars per hour lane. Geometric design or characteristics of a free way are one of the factors in computing the free-flow speed.

Eq.2.1

where: vp = 15 min passenger-car equivalent flow rate, pc/h/ln V = hourly peak vehicle volume, veh/h in one direction PHF = peak hour factor N = number of travel lanes in one direction fp = driver population factor. Range: 0.85-1.00 Use 1.00 for commuter traffic. is significant rereational or weekend traffic, the value is reduced.

If there

FHV = heavy vehicle adjustment factor

Eq. 2.2

where: PT

= percentage of trucks/buses in traffic system

ET

= passenger car equivalent (PCE) for trucks/buses

PR

= percentage of recreational vehicles (RVs) in traffic stream

ER

= passenger car equivalent (PCE) for recreational vehicles

For Free-Flow Speed (FFS), mi/h

Eq. 2.3 where: BFFS = base free-flow speed, mi/h. 70 (urban) or 75 (rural) f LW

= adjustment for lane width

f LC

= adjustment for right-shoulder lateral clearance

fN

= adjustment for number of lanes

f ID

= adjustment for interchange density

Table 2.3 Adjustment for Lane Width Lane Width (ft) 12 11 10

Reduction Free-Flow Speed, fLW (mi/h) 0.0 1.9 6.6

Table 2.4 Adjustment for Right-Shoulder Lateral Clearance

Right-Shoulder Lateral Clearance ≥6 5 4 3 2 1 0

2 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.6

Reduction in Free-Flow Speed, f LC (mi/h) Lanes in one direction 3 4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.6 1.6 0.8 2.0 1.0 2.4 1.2

≥5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Table 2.5 Adjustment for Number of Lanes Number f Lanes (one direction) Reduction in Free-Flow Speed, f N (mi/h) 0.0 ≥5 4 1.5 3 3.0 2 4.5 Note: For all rural freeway segments, f N is 0.0

Table 2.6 Adjustment for Interchange Density Interchanges per Mile

Reduction in Free-Flow Speed, f ID (mi/h)

0.5

0.0

0.75

1.3

1.00

2.5

1.25

3.7

1.50

5.0

1.75

6.3

2.00

7.5

2.5 Generated Traffic Impacts According to Litman, 2001 “Traffic grows when roads are uncongested, but growth rates decline as congestion develops, reaching a self-limiting equilibrium (indicated by the curve becoming horizontal). If capacity is added, traffic growth continues until it reaches a new equilibrium. The additional peak period vehicle travel that results is called “generated traffic.” The portion that consists of absolute increases in vehicle travel (as opposed to shifts in time and route) is called “induced travel. This statement helps to understand that if there is a new road, or expansion of road, doesn’t mean that congestion in traffic flows are resolved, maybe on its first implementation but as time pass, there will be an increase in demand of vehicles arriving until a road will be congested again and will not sustain the next generation’s needs.

2.5 Level of Service for Freeway Sections The definition of each level of service by Garber and Hoel (2002) is as follows: Table 2.1 Definition of each level of service Level of Service

Description

Free-flow operations in which vehicles are completely unimpeded in their ability to maneuver; motorists experience a high level of physical and A psychological comfort, and the effects of incidents or point breakdowns are easily absorbed. Traffic is moving under reasonably free-flow conditions, and free-flow speeds are sustained. The ability to maneuver within the traffic stream is only slightly B restricted. A high level of physical and psychological comfort is provided and the effects of minor incidents and point breakdowns are easily absorbed. Speeds are at or near the free-flow speed, but freedom to maneuver is noticeably restricted. Lane changes require more care and vigilance by the C driver. When minor incidents occur, local deterioration in service will be substantial. Queues may be expected to form behind any significant blockage. Speeds can begin to decline slightly and density increases more quickly with increasing flows. Freedom to maneuver is more noticeably limited, and drivers experience reduced physical and psychological comfort. Vehicle spacings D average 165 ft (8 car lengths) and maximum density is 32 pc/mi/ln. Because there is so little space to absorb disruptions, minor incidents can be expected to create queuing. Operations are volatile because there are virtually no useable gaps. Maneuvers such as lane changes or merging of traffic from entrance ramps will result in a disturbance of the traffic stream. Minor incidents result in immediate and E extensive queuing. Capacity is reached at its highest density values of 45 pc/mi/ln. Operation is under breakdown conditions in vehicular flow. These conditions prevail in queues behind freeway sections experiencing temporary or long-term reductions in capacity. The flow conditions are such that the number of vehicles that can pass a point is less than the number of vehicles arriving F upstream of the point or at merging or weaving areas where the number of vehicles arriving is greater than the number discharged. Ratio of forecasted demand to capacity exceeds 1.00 Source: Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board 2000

Table 2.2 Criteria for each level of service Free-Flow Criteria Level of Service Speed A B C Maximum density (pc/h/ln) 11 18 26 75 mi/h Average Speed (mi/h) 75.0 74.8 70.6 Maximum volume-to-capacity ratio 0.34 0.56 0.76 (v/c) 820 1350 1830 Maximum service flow rate (pc/h/ln) Maximum density (pc/h/ln) 11 18 26 70 mi/h Average Speed (mi/h) 70.0 70.0 68.2 Maximum volume-to-capacity ratio 0.32 0.53 0.74 (v/c) 770 1260 1770 Maximum service flow rate (pc/h/ln) Maximum density (pc/h/ln) 11 18 26 65 mi/h Average Speed (mi/h) 65.0 65.0 64.6 Maximum volume-to-capacity ratio 0.30 0.50 0.71 (v/c) 710 1170 1680 Maximum service flow rate (pc/h/ln) Maximum density (pc/h/ln) 11 18 26 60 mi/h Average Speed (mi/h) 60.0 60.0 60.0 Maximum volume-to-capacity ratio 0.29 0.47 0.68 (v/c) 660 1080 1560 Maximum service flow rate (pc/h/ln) Maximum density (pc/h/ln) 11 18 26 55 mi/h Average Speed (mi/h) 55.0 55.0 55.0 Maximum volume-to-capacity ratio 0.27 0.44 0.64 (v/c) 600 990 1430 Maximum service flow rate (pc/h/ln) Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board 2000

D 35 62.2 0.90 2170

E 45 53.3 1.00 2400

35 61.5 0.90 2150

45 53.3 1.00 2400

35 59.7 0.89 2090

45 52.2 1.00 2350

35 57.6 0.88 2020

45 51.1 1.00 2300

35 54.7 0.85 1910

45 50.0 1.00 2250

CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY Figure 3.1 shows the step by step process to be conducted in determining the sustainability of the Manila-Cavite Expressway. INPUT

Vehicle Count Geometric Design

(Hourly volume) AADT

Socio-economic profile Survey Road Inventory

PROCESS

Present Travel Demand w/o trip assignment

Future Travel Demand Capacity and Level of Service of Freeway

OUTPUT

Effectiveness of the Expressway

Expected Traffic Volume after 10 years Figure 3.1 Methodology

Sustainability of the infrastructure

3.1 Input The data to be gathered includes the geometric design of the freeway; this contains the length of the freeway, number of lanes in each direction, lateral clearance, grade of the freeway, design Speed for the freeway. Data needed for the study also include the socio-economic profile of the two traffic analysis zones, the expected population after five years and the conversion of land uses, design hourly volume of the roads connected to the Bacoor and Kawit zones or the AADT, and the surveys for the analysis of mode of choice of the drivers. 3.1.1 Geometric Design Geometric design of the roadway is necessary in the study as this can be the factor that affects the level of service of the freeway section especially in computing for the free flow speed. Geometric design of the R-1 Extension of the Mania-Cavite Toll Expressway or the design plan of this infrastructure can be collected in the sector of the government (Department of Public Works and Highways). 3.1.2 Socio-economic Profile Socio-economic profile of towns and municipalities, who benefit in the Expressway, will also be used in the travel demand between each zone. This can be gathered in the municipal or provincial hall. Increase in population, employment or other infrastructures will affect the future travel demand between the zones because of the accessibility of the roads going to Kawit and District I of Cavite.

3.1.3 Vehicle Count Numbers of passenger cars are one of the important factors in conducting the research thesis; number of vehicles entering and passing the zones determines the level of service the road accommodates. To assess the effectiveness of the new Expressway, traffic data before its implementation must be provided. And this will be compared to the future traffic demand of the zones to conclude the sustainability of the Manila-Cavite Toll Expressway for the future travel demand. 3.2 Process In order to determine the future travel demand and sustainability of the structure, traffic flow before the implementation of the Manila-Cavite Expressway must be considered first and then determining if after 10 years, the traffic flow and the level of service of the Manila-Cavite Expressway will become congested or not (because the effectivity of R-1 Extension of the Manila-Cavite Toll Expressway is not yet noticeable during its implementation). Methods in estimating travel demand and future travel demand are as follows: 1. Trip Generation- socio-economic data, traffic data, AADT or by vehicle counting of the roads covered by the study, E. Aguinaldo highway, Gen. Evangelista St., and Tirona Highway and other intersections within the travel patterns. 2. Trip Distribution- identify attraction zones (using Fratar method) which contributes (the least or the greatest) in the volume of traffic. 3. Modal Split- a survey must be provided in this procedure to distinguish what types of transportation each class of people usually use.

4. Capacity- characteristics of the highway is necessary, for computing the volume and density of vehicles that the road can carry. 5. Level of Service- when capacity is determined level of service gives the qualitative measure for the traffic situation of the roads, especially the Expressway.