Sample Sovereign Risk Scoring Model

SAMPLE SOVEREIGN RISK SCORING MODEL Country: Croatia

1.

Score:

Economy

For the most recent available 12 month period: Currency: Real exchange rate movement was: a) Positive ……….………………………3 b) Negative 0- 5%......................................2 c) Negative 6-15%...................................1 d) Negative more than 15% …………...0

Sources: www.hnb.hr GDP: GDP real growth: a) Grew by more than 4% per year …....3 b) Grew by 2-4% per year …...……….2 c) Staged……………………………..…1 d) Declined……………………………..0

Sources: www.hnb.hr Unemployment (best estimate available) was: a) Less than 5%.......................................3 b) 5-10%..................................................2 c) 11-15%................................................1

d) More than 15%..................................0

Sources: www.hnb.hr

MONEY Inflation was: a) 0-5% per year……………………….3 b) 6-10% per year………………………2 c) 10-15 per year……………………….1 d) More than 15% per year …..…….…..0

Sources: www.hnb.hr The most recent real lending rate was: a) Positive or negative by less than 3%....3 b) Negative by 3-5%...................................2 c) Negative by 6-10%...............................1 d) Negative by more than 10% ………….0

Sources: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/croatia/real-interest-rate-percent-wb-data.html If the country had a current account deficit, foreign reserves covered: a) Surplus/more than 100% ….………3 b) 75-100%.............................................2 c) 50-75%...............................................1 d) Less than 50%....................................0

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=144 -foreign reserves and gold

http://www.indexmundi.com/croatia/current_account_balance.html -current account balance www.imf.org

Foreign reserves were: a) Steady or increasing………………….3 b) Declining 1-5%....................................2 c) Declining 6-10%..................................1 d) Declining more than 10%....................0

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=144 www.imf.org Total external debt is: a) less than 30% of GDP…………..……3 b) 30-75% of GDP………………….…..2 c) 75-100% of GDP…………..…….….1 d) More than 100% of GDP…………….0

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=94 – external debt www.hnb.hr

Over the past 3 years, total external debt as a proportion of GDP: a) Fell…………..………………………..3 b) Remained constant…………..…….….2 c) Rose 1-5%.............................................1

d) Rose more than 5% points…..…...….0

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=94 or www.hnb.hr BALANCE OF PAYMENT Compared to exports, imports were: a) Smaller or in balance…….……….……3 b) 1-10% larger………..……….………..2 c) 11-20% larger………………………….1 d) More than 20% larger….…...………….0

Sources: www.worldbank.org

The current account was: a) In surplus or balance…………….……….3 b) In deficit by 1-2% of GDP………………..2 c) In deficit by 3-4% of GDP……….……..1 d) In deficit by more than 4% of GDP………0

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=145 Government finance: National government finance was: a) In surplus or balance ………………………3 b) In deficit by 1-2% of GDP…………………2 c) In deficit by 2-4% of GDP………….……1 d) In deficit by more than 4% of GDP….…..0

Sources:

http://www.economywatch.com/economicstatistics/croatia/General_Government_Balance_Percentage_of_GDP/ If government finances are in deficit, they have been so far: a) Surplus/1 year or less….……………3 b) 2-5 years………………………...….1 c) More than 5 years………………….0

Sources: http://www.economywatch.com/economicstatistics/croatia/General_Government_Balance_Percentage_of_GDP/

Over the past 3 years, the ratio of fixed investments to GDP has: a) Increased………..…………………..3 b) stagnated……………………………1 c) decreased………..………….………0

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=142

The ratio of total trade (exports +imports) to GDP was: a) more than 75% ………………………3 b) 51-75%.................................................2 c) 25-50%................................................1 d) Less than 25%......................................0

Sources: www.imf.org The annual domestic savings rate was: a) More than 30%.........................................4

b) 20-30%....................................................3 c) 15-20……………..……………………..2 d) Less than 15%..........................................0

Sources: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/croatia/gross-domestic-savings-us-dollar-wb-data.html