Calculating Risk in Project Network based on PERT calculation ACTIVITY
redecesso Optimistic
ost Likel Pessimisticime Estimat Variance
Start
Std Dev
(o+4m+p)/6
A
Start
10
22
22
20
4
2
B
Start
20
20
20
20
0
0
C
Start
4
10
16
10
4
2
D
a
2
14
32
15
25
5
E
b,c
8
8
20
10
4
2
F
b,c
8
14
20
14
4
2
G
b,c
4
4
4
4
0
0
H
c
2
12
16
11
5.4
2.33
I
g,h
6
16
38
18
28.4
5.33
J
d,e
2
8
14
8
4
2
Finish
j,i,f
43
33
5.745
Project Duration =
Assume Project Manager has commited 50 days to the customer, what are the chances of meeting the de
Z = (D-u )/Std Deviation
We need to calculate the value of 'Z'
D = Desired Project Com u
Z=
1.22
= The critical time of th
Std Deviation of the critic Z = The number of Std D
Refer Table A below, T he probability Z of 1.22 (column 1.2 and .02) occurs .8888 or say 89%
We can also calculate backwards:
What deadline is consistent with a 95% probability of on-time completion?
Here the 'Z' value associated with 0.95 is We know that
u
1.645
is 43 days and Std Deviation is 5.745
D = u + Std Dev ( correspondence value of Z)
52.45
What are the chances that the non-critical Path c-h-I will make the project late?
Now D = 43, so we have Z= ( 43-39)/6.155 = 0.65 Now Z = .65 is associated with 0.74 of being on time, or 1-.74 = 0.26 chances of delaying the project
Refering non-critical path C, H, I Duration
Variance
Std Dev
39
37.9
6.155
Z=
0.65
Assuming that these two paths (a-b-j and c-h-I) are independent. What is the probability that both paths The probability is 0.50 x 0.74 = 0.37
TABLE - A: Cummulative (Single Tail) Probabilities of the Normal Probability Distributio Z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.0
0.5000
0.5040
0.5080
0.5120
0.5160
0.5199
0.5239
0.5279
0.1
0.5398
0.5438
0.5478
0.5517
0.5557
0.5596
0.5636
0.5675
0.2
0.5793
0.5832
0.5871
0.5910
0.5948
0.5987
0.6026
0.6064
0.3
0.6179
0.6217
0.6255
0.6293
0.6331
0.6368
0.6406
0.6443
0.4
0.6554
0.6591
0.6628
0.6664
0.6700
0.6737
0.6772
0.6808
0.5
0.6915
0.6950
0.6985
0.7019
0.7054
0.7088
0.7123
0.7157
0.6
0.7257
0.7291
0.7324
0.7357
0.7389
0.7422
0.7454
0.7486
0.7
0.7580
0.7611
0.7642
0.7673
0.7704
0.7734
0.7764
0.7794
0.8
0.7881
0.7910
0.7939
0.7967
0.7995
0.8023
0.8051
0.8078
0.9
0.8159
0.8186
0.8212
0.8238
0.8264
0.8289
0.8315
0.8340
1.0
0.8413
0.8438
0.8461
0.8485
0.8508
0.8531
0.8554
0.8577
1.1
0.8643
0.8665
0.8686
0.8708
0.8729
0.8749
0.8770
0.8790
1.2
0.8849
0.8869
0.8888
0.8907
0.8925
0.8944
0.8962
0.8980
1.3
0.9032
0.9049
0.9066
0.9082
0.9099
0.9115
0.9131
0.9147
1.4
0.9192
0.9207
0.9222
0.9236
0.9251
0.9265
0.9279
0.9292
1.5
0.9332
0.9345
0.9357
0.9370
0.9382
0.9394
0.9406
0.9418
1.6
0.9452
0.9463
0.9474
0.9484
0.9495
0.9505
0.9515
0.9525
1.7
0.9554
0.9564
0.9573
0.9582
0.9591
0.9599
0.9608
0.9616
1.8
0.9641
0.9649
0.9656
0.9664
0.9671
0.9678
0.9686
0.9693
1.9
0.9713
0.9719
0.9726
0.9732
0.9738
0.9744
0.9750
0.9756
2.0
0.9772
0.9778
0.9783
0.9788
0.9793
0.9798
0.9803
0.9808
2.1
0.9821
0.9826
0.9830
0.9834
0.9838
0.9842
0.9846
0.9850
2.2
0.9861
0.9864
0.9868
0.9871
0.9875
0.9878
0.9881
0.9884
2.3
0.9893
0.9896
0.9898
0.9901
0.9904
0.9906
0.9909
0.9911
2.4
0.9918
0.9920
0.9932
0.9925
0.9927
0.9929
0.9931
0.9932
2.5
0.9938
0.9940
0.9941
0.9943
0.9945
0.9946
0.9948
0.9949
2.6
0.9953
0.9955
0.9956
0.9957
0.9959
0.9960
0.9961
0.9962
2.7
0.9965
0.9966
0.9967
0.9968
0.9969
0.9970
0.9971
0.9972
2.8
0.9974
0.9975
0.9976
0.9977
0.9977
0.9978
0.9979
0.9979
2.9
0.9981
0.9982
0.9982
0.9983
0.9984
0.9984
0.9985
0.9985
3.0
0.9987
0.9987
0.9987
0.9988
0.9988
0.9989
0.9989
0.9989
3.1
0.9990
0.9991
0.9991
0.9991
0.9992
0.9992
0.9992
0.9992
3.2
0.9993
0.9993
0.9994
0.9994
0.9994
0.9994
0.9994
0.9995
3.3
0.9995
0.9995
0.9995
0.9996
0.9996
0.9996
0.9996
0.9996
3.4
0.9997
0.9997
0.9997
0.9997
0.9997
0.9997
0.9997
0.9997
BACKUP DOCUMENT BEFORE FILLING EXPERI Experience Verification - Reporting M (6 years if graduate; and 8 years if non-graduate from the date you Projects
6
6
6
6
6
6
A B C D E F G H Total Hrs.
PROJECTS
6
6
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Initiation Planning Execution Controlling Closing Proj Total hrs: List major deliverables for each project work that you personally under How to prepare for PMP certification: Assumption: Study @ week # 1 Definitions - PMBOK 2 Understanding Input-Output relationship : refer to PM 3 Mug-up Input-Output relationship : refer to PMCC Han 4 Understand Generic Management & Project Initiation 5 Understand Project Scope mgmt 6 Understand Project Time & Cost mgmt 7 Understand Project Quality, HR and Communication 8 Understand Project Risk mgmt & perform PMKQ pract GO FOR PMP CERTIFICATION
Cummulative PV EV AC M.Hr. M.Hr. M.Hr. 8 16 34 58 82 98 114 120 126 132
C Handouts outs APPLY FOR PMP CERTIFICATION gmt ice
SAMPLE PROJECT FOR DEVELOPING PROJECT PLAN For a typical IT Project, the deliverables upto level-2 has been given below. You are required to eloborate further 2 levels of deliverables upto "Work Packages". You are then required to list down the activities for each Work Package. 1 IT PROJECT 2 BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY 3 INITIATE BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY 4 Start Project 5 Create Opportunity/Problem Statement 6 Develop Initial Project Team 7 GATHER SUPPORTING DATA 8 Gather High Level Business Requirements 9 Conduct Management/Business Survey 10 Analyze Survey Findings and Business Functions 11 Develop High Level Scope, Objectives, and Constraints 12 ANALYZE CURRENT SYSTEM 13 Assess Current System Capacity/Functionality 14 Assess Current System Cost/Benefit 15 ASSESS ALTERNATIVES 16 Define General Systems Requirements 17 Define Potential Build vs. Buy Alternatives 18 Evaluate Technical Implications of Alternatives 19 Estimate Cost/Benefit/Risk of Alternatives 20 Compare Potential Solutions with Project Objectives 21 PRESENT ALTERNATIVES 22 Review Findings on Alternatives with Project Sponsor 23 Obtain Sponsor Approval 24 Determine Project Priority 25 DEVELOP PROJECT PLAN 26 Finalize Project Definition/Scope Statement 27 Determine Project Staffing Needs - User and Technical 28 Develop Project Plan/Schedule 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS AND LOGICAL DESIGN DESIGN FUNCTIONAL SYSTEM Conduct JAD to Define and Document Detailed Functional Requirements Develop Conceptual Design Docum ent Business Process Flows Define Logical I/O Format Define Processing Requirem ents Define Logical Data Structures Develop Screen Dialogs Develop Overall System Flow Identify Acceptance Testing Criteria Hold Design Walkthru with User and Technical Analyst(s) PREPARE USERS DOCUMENTS Determine User Operations/Data Entry Procedures Determine User Training & Education Requirements Identify Security Requirements Prototype Business Process
Inter-Link Work Packages .
46 47 48
REVIEW LOGICAL DESIGN Prepare Presentation for Project Sponsor Obtain Sponsor Approval of Logical Design
CODING AND TESTING ESTABLISH PROGRAM TEST STRATEGY Review Physical Testing Environment Schedule and Prioritize Test Shifts Establish Test File Sources Establish Test Sequence Determine Software Testing Requirements Determ ine Operations Requirements Test Strategy Complete CODE AND UNIT TEST PROGRAMS Code and Unit Test Required Program #1 Code and Unit Test Required Program #2 Code and Unit Test Required Program #3 Code and Unit Test Required Program #4 Code and Unit Test Required Program #5 Code and Unit Test Required Program # n OUTLINE TEST SPECIFICATIONS Develop System Test Plan Develop Stress Test Plan Develop Acceptance Test Plan Develop Parallel Test Plan SYSTEM TEST Execute System Tests
Perform Stress Testing Review Results with User and Operations Complete System Test ACCEPTANCE TEST Finalize Acceptance Test Criteria Review Acceptance Test Plan Perform Acceptance Test Complete Acceptance Test PARALLEL TEST Review Parallel Test Plan Perform Parallel Test Complete Parallel Test IMPLEMENTATION PLAN AND COMMIT COMPUTER SERVICES Prepare Site in User Location(s) Order Computer Supplies Review Test Controls Review Site Operation Review Personnel Requirem ents Establish System Security SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION Complete Operations Documentation Com plete Program Docum entation Complete User Guide PREPARE ORGANIZATION & FINALIZE USER PROCS Finalize User Documentation Finalize Data Input Procedures Finalize Data Output Docum ents Review Manual User Procedures Review Business Recovery Plans Perform Hardware Testing COMPLETE USER EDUCATION AND TRAINING Train Trainers Train Installation Team Train User Personnel INVENTORY SOFTWARE/REVISE DOCUMENTATION Prepare Software Libraries Build Documentation Library DEVELOP SYSTEM CONVERSION REQUIREMENTS Develop Conversion Plan/Schedule Design Conversion Programs/Procedures Hold Conversion Strategy Walkthru Execute Mock Conversions Execute Data Conversion Data Conversion Complete CUTOVER Set Up Environment Install Data Bases Move from Test to Production Monitor and Certify the System OBTAIN SPONSOR SIGN-OFF
Secure Sponsor Sign-off on System Secure Sponsor Sign-off on User Guides INITIATE NEW SYSTEM OPERATION Transfer Operational Responsibility to User Establish Change Control Procedures Transfer System Responsibility to Technical Maintenance Function System Im plem entation Com plete CLOSE DOWN OLD SYSTEM Establish Programs Retention Period Archive System Documentation Archive Master Data Files Re-Allocate Com puter Resources Archive Programs CONDUCT EVALUATION Develop/Distribute Customer Questionnaire Evaluate Customer Responses Hold Lessons Learned Meeting End Project PROJECT ADMINISTRATION Project Administration Project Planning and Control Project Meetings Staff Administration - Non-Project Related Staff Activities Staff Meetings Production Support and Maintenance
WBS DESCRIPTION 1 Power & Utilities Simulation Model - PWUS 1.1 REQUIREMENTS PHASE 1.1.1 Discover User NEEDS 1.1.1.1 Prepare Preliminary User Needs / Requirements 1.1.1.1.1 Establish Project Objectives & Management Concerns 1.1.1.1.2 Get functional requirements 1.1.1.1.3 Get information on external interface 1.1.1.1.4 Get operating environment requirements 1.1.1.1.5 Get performance requirements 1.1.1.1.6 Get standard requirem ents 1.1.1.1.7 Get special user requirements 1.1.1.1.8 Prepare Prototype 1.1.1.1.9 Evaluate Prototype 1.1.1.1.10 Conduct feed back session 1.1.1.1.11 Document User Needs and Preliminary Requirements 1.1.1.2 Technically Analyze Requirements 1.1.1.2.1 Develop process model 1.1.1.2.2 Develop logical data 1.1.1.2.3 Verify Requirements 1.1.1.2.4 Set up data dictionary 1.1.1.3 Obtain Approval of Customer needs and requirements
Instructor Station Confugration Instructor Station Configuration Preparation Instructor Station Configuration Review Instructor Station Configuration Fixation Instructor Station Configuration Verification Instructor Station Configuration Baseline and Release Operator Station Configuration Operator Station Configuration Preparaton Operator Station Configuration Review Operator Station Configuration Fixation Operator Station Configuration Verification Operator Station Configuration Baseline and release Graphics Development Graphics Preparation Graphics Review Graphics Fixation Graphics V erification Graphics Baseline and Release Unit Testing Utility Boiler Unit Testing Testing Bug Fixing Verification Pressure Flow Network Unit Testing Testing Bug Fixing Verification Wet Gas Compressor Unit Testing Testing Bug Fixing Verification Turbine Unit Testing Testing Bug Fixing Verification Surface Condenser Unit Testing Testing Bug Fixing Verification User Manual Preparation Preparation of User Manual Review User manual Fixation User manual Verification user m anual SQA Review Conversion of User Manual to Online Help Review of Online Help Integrating Testing Integrated Dynamic Testing Testing Bug Fixing Verification
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