Resumo - Economia Internacional
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Resumos dos capítulos do livro "Economia Internacional: Teoria e Prática" (Krugman) e outros textos....
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Economia Internacional Resumos do livro ”Economia livro ”Economia Internacional: Teoria e Pr´ atica” de Krugman e Obstfeld (8 a ed.) e outros textos
Thales Carmo - FGV/EESP June 20, 2017
Contents 1 O Mo delo Ricardiano 1.1 1.1 Conc Concei eito to de vantage tagens ns comp compar araativ tivas . . . . 1.2 Economia de um fator . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.3 Com Com´erc e rcio em um mundo ndo de um fator ator . . . . 1.3.1 1.3 .1 Determ Determina inando ndo o pre¸ pre¸co relativo . . . 1.3.2 Ganhos do com´ercio . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.4 Vanta antage gens ns comp compar arat ativ ivas as:: equ equ´ıvoc ıvocos os e mito mitoss 1.5 Conc Conclus lus˜ a˜o . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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2 O modelo modelo de propor¸ propor¸ c˜ c˜ ao ao de fatores (Modelo de Heckscher-Ohlin) Heckscher-Ohlin) 2.1 2.1 O mode odelo de uma econo conom mia com com dois dois fato fatorres . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Efeitos Efeitos do com´ com´ercio ercio interna internaciona cionall entre entre economias economias com com dois fatore fatoress
6 6 8
3 O mo delo-padr˜ ao de com´ ercio internacional 3.1 O modelomodelo-pad padr˜ r˜ ao a o para para uma uma eco econo nomi mia a com com com com´erci e rcioo . . . . . . . 3.1.1 Resumo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Tarifas e subs´ subs´ıdios as a`s exporta¸c˜ c˜oes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 10 12 13
4 A Nova Teoria do Com´ ercio Internacional 15 4.1 4.1 Teori eoriaa da conc concor orrrˆenci e nciaa impe imperf rfei eita ta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 4.2 Conc Concor orrˆ rˆ enci e nciaa mo mono nopol polis ista ta e com com´erci e rcioo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 4.3 Discrim Discrimina ina¸c˜ c¸ao a˜o internacional de pre¸cos cos (dumping (dumping ) . . . . . . . . . 19 5 Instrumentos de Pol´ıtica Comercial 5.1 Ana´lise de tarifas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.2 Cust Custoos e bene beneff´ıcio ıcioss das tarif arifas as . . . . . . . 5.3 Outr Outros os inst instru rume men ntos tos de pol´ pol´ıtic ıticaa come comerc rcia iall 5.4 Resumo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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6 Economia pol´ıtica da pol´ıtica pomercial 6.1 6.1 Argu Argume men ntos tos a fav favor do livr livree com com´erci e rcioo . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Argument Argumentos os do do bem-esta bem-estarr nacional nacional contra contra o livre livre com´ com´ ercio ercio 6.3 Distr Distrib ibui ui¸c˜ c¸˜ao a o de rend renda a e pol pol´ıtic ıtica a pom pomer erci cial al . . . . . . . . . 6.4 Negoc Negocia ia¸c˜ c¸˜oes o es int inter erna naci cion onai aiss e pol´ pol´ıtic ıticaa com comer erci cial al . . . . . .
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25 . . 25 . . 26 . . 26 . . 27
7 O Com´ ercio em Valor Agregado 28 7.1 Modelo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 8 Acordos Preferenciais de Com´ ercio 28 8.1 Conc Conclus lus˜ o˜es . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 9 A Nov Nova Geogra Geografia fia Econ Econˆ ˆ omica 30 9.1 9.1 Raz˜ Raz˜ oes oes para a concentra¸c˜ c˜ao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 9.2 Resultados . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 10 A Economia Pol´ıtica do Com´ ercio 31 10.1 Mo Modelo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 10.2 R es esultados . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
1
O Model odelo o Rica Ricard rdia iano no
Cap´ Cap´ıtulo 3. Krugman & Obstfeld: Economia Internacional (8a ed.)
1.1
Conceito Conceito de vant vantagens agens comparativ comparativas as
Supondo um exemplo em que os Estados Unidos e a Colombia podem produzir tanto flores flor es quanto qu anto compu c omputado tadores, res, o com´ercio erci o internac inte rnacion ional al entre ent re eles el es ´e ben´ b en´efico. efico . Para os Estados Unidos, ´e dif di f´ıcil produzir produ zir flores, pois essa produ¸c˜ cao ˜ao depende de estufas, gastos em energia, investimento em capital e outros recursos escassos. Esses recursos poderiam ser alocados para a produ¸c˜ ao ao de outros bens (trade-off ( trade-off ), ), logo, os EUA deixam de produzir computadores, computadores, por exemplo. exemplo. Esse trade-off Esse trade-off ´e o custo de oportunidade. oportunidade. Essas flores poderiam ser produzidas na Colombia, onde o custo de oportunidade ´ tunidade ´e bem menor (se um mesmo n´ n ´umero umero de trabalhado trabalhadores res deixassem deixassem de produzir flores para produzir computadores, os EUA certamente teriam uma produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao maior, por p or conta da eficiˆ encia encia dos seus trabalhadores). • A diferen¸ diferen¸ca ca entre entre os custos custos de oportunidade oportunidadess dos pa´ pa´ıses ´e o que gera
bene be neff´ıcio ıc ioss m´ mutuos u ´ tuos na produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao mundial. No exemplo, se os EUA focassem na produ¸c˜ cao a˜o de computadores e a Colombia, na de flores, a produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao global de computadores aumentaria. Isso permite pe rmite que os pa´ pa´ıses se especi e specializem alizem na produ¸ produ ¸c˜ cao a˜o de determinado bem que lhe provˆe uma u ma vantagem comparativa. comparat iva.
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• Colombia tem vantagem comparativa na produ¸c˜ cao ˜ao de rosas. • EUA tem vantagem comparativa na produ¸c˜ ao ao de computadores.
Ambos os pa´ pa´ıses ficam mais ricos, pois eles pro duzir˜ ao ao para ambos os mercados.
1.2 1.2
Econ Econom omia ia de um fato fatorr
Supondo uma economia com somente um fator de produ¸c˜ ao ao - trabalho. trabalho. Essa Essa economia economia produz dois b ens: queijo queijo e vinho, e o trabalhado trabalhadorr divide seu trabalho trabalho entre a produ¸c˜ cao a˜o desses dois bens. b ens. A produtividade pro dutividade ´e invesamente proporcional aos requisitos de unidades de trabalho (quanto mais o trabalhador conseguir produzir em uma hora, menos unidades de trabalho ser˜ao requisitadas), em que aLW ´e o requisito de trabalho em vinho e a LC , em queijo; L queijo; L ´e a oferta total de trabalho. Logo, a produtividade de se produzir queijo ´e 1/a 1 /aLC e 1/aLW , de e produzir vinho. Sendo QW a produ¸c˜ cao ˜ao de vinho e QC , de queijo, a fronteira fronteira de produ¸ produ¸c˜ cao ˜ poss´ poss´ıvel ıv el ´ ´e dada dad a por: po r: aLC QC + aLW QW ≤ L Se a fronteira for uma linha reta, o custo de oportunidade de oportunidade de um bem, relativo ao outro, ´e constante co nstante e ser´ s er´a a inclina¸c˜ cao ˜ao da fronteira (a ( aLC /aLW ).
A fronteira de produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao poss´ p oss´ıvel ıvel mostra m ostra as diferentes di ferentes combina¸c˜ c˜oes oes poss´ po ss´ıveis ıve is que uma economia pode poduzi pode poduzir. r. A produ¸ produc˜ c¸˜ao ao efetiva depende dos pre¸cos cos relativos dos bens, isto ´e, e, o pre¸co co de um em termos do outro. Exemplo: Supondo que: ´ necess´aria aria 1 hora de trabalho para produzir queijo e, posteriormente, • E ele ´e vendido por $4. • S˜ ao ao necess´arias arias 2 horas de trabalho para produzir vinho e, posteriormente, ele ´e vendido por $7. Nesse exemplo os trabalhador trabalhadores es s´ o ir˜ao ao produzir queijo, pois ganhar˜ao a o $4 a
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Assim, a hora de trabalho para a produ¸c˜ cao ˜ao de queijo ser´a P C C /aLC , enquanto para a produ¸c˜ cao a˜o de vinho, P vinho, P W W /aLW . Logo, como a economia se especializa na ind´ ustria que pagar mais, ent˜ao ustria ao ela se especializar´a na produ¸c˜ cao a˜o de queijo se: P C C /aLC > P W W /aLW P C C /P W W > aLC /aLW E vice-versa. Assim, uma Assim, uma economia se especializar´ a na produ¸c˜ c˜ ao de queijo se o seu pre¸co relativo exceder o seu custo de oportunidade em rela¸c˜ ao ` a produ¸c˜ cao ˜ de vinho. Caso n˜ao ao ha ja com´ercio ercio internacional, internaci onal, os pre¸ pr e¸cos cos relativos dos bens s˜ao ao iguais `as unidades de trabalho requisitadas. as
1.3
Com´ Com´ ercio ercio em um mundo de um fator
Supondo, agora, duas economias (Home e Foreigh) com somente um fator de produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao - trabalho. Ambas as economias produzem dois bens: vinho e queijo. Home, seja aLW o requisito de trabalho em Igual ao exemplo anterior, para Home, vinho e aLC , em queijo, e L a oferta total de trabalho; j´a para Foreigh, Foreigh, seja aLW o requisito de trabalho em vinho e a LC , em queijo, e L a oferta total de trabalho. Assim, supondo que Home ´e mais produtiva em queijo, por´em em menos produtiva em vinho, comparada com Foreign, temos que: ∗
∗
∗
aLC /aLW < aLC /aLW ∗
∗
aLC /aLC < a LW /aLW ∗
∗
O custo de oportunidade de Home produzir queijos ´e menor ( custo de oportunidade = raz˜ ao das unidades de trabalho ). Logo, Home tem vantagens comparativas em produzir queijos. 1.3.1 1.3.1
Determ Determinan inando do o pre¸ preco c¸o relativo
Se Home exportar queijo somente em troca da importa¸c˜ ao ao de vinho, e Foreign exportar vinho somente em troca da importa¸c˜ao ao de queijo, o estudo dos mercados de cada bem isoladamen isoladamente te pode ser equivocado. equivocado. Nesse caso, a an´ alise alise de equil equi l´ıbrio ıbr io geral ger al conecta conecta ambos os mercados. Uma maneira mane ira de ver isso iss o ´e atrav´ a trav´es es da demanda e oferta oferta relativas. Primeiro, vemos que n˜ao ao haveria oferta de queijo caso o pre¸co relativo fosse menor que a que a LC /aLW , pois se P se P C ao Home se especializaria ao C /P W W < aLC /aLW , ent˜ na produ¸c˜ c˜ao a o de vinho vinho.. Logo Logo,, quan quando do P C /P = a C W W LC /aLW , Home se torna indiferente entre produzir queijo e vinho, ofertando qualquer quantidade dos bens, produzindo uma curva horizontal (o mesmo ocorre para Foreign). Depois, vemos que se P C a na produ¸c˜ caao ˜o C /P W W > a LC /aLW , Home se especializar´
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quando Foreign se especializa em vinho, ele produz L /aLW . Logo, para qualquer pre¸co co relativo entre os custos de oportunidade de Home e Foreign, a oferta relativa de queijo ser´a: a: (L/aLC )/(L /aL W ) W ) ∗
∗
∗
∗
Ou seja, seja, s˜ ao ao as quantidad quantidades es relativ relativas as m´ aximas que Home e Foreign v˜aaoo aximas produzi produzir. r. Nessa Nessa linha linha verti vertical cal,, Hom Homee se especia especializa liza na produ¸ produ¸c˜ cao ˜ao de queijo e Foreign, na produ¸c˜ cao a˜o de vinho. Logo, os pre¸ os pre¸cos cos s˜ao ao definidos somente por componentes da oferta (tecnolo oferta (tecnologia, custo de oportunidad oportunidade). e). E as quantidades s˜ao ao definidas por componentes da demanda da demanda.. Quanto maior a demanda por queijo, mais deslocada para a direita ser´a a RD e maior ser´ a a produ¸c˜ cao a˜o mundial de queijo. Home se especializar´a em queijo e Foreign produzir´a queijo e vinho (mais queijo que vinho). 1.3.2
Ganhos do com´ ercio ercio
Supondo que Home produza queijo e vinho, mas que tenha uma produtividade maior mai or em queijo queijo.. Assim, Assim, ela pode produzir produzir mais queijo queijo e trocar trocar seus queijos queijos por vinhos vinhos,, produzi produzidos dos em Foreign oreign.. Isso Isso aumen aumentar tar´´a a quantidade de vinho dispon´ dispon´ıvel em Home (inclina a fronteira de produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao poss´ po ss´ıvel) ıve l)..
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de vinho.
1.4
Vantagens comparativ comparativas: as: equ´ equ´ıvocos e mitos
• O livre com´ ercio ercio ´e ben´efico efico soment som entee se seu pa´ pa´ıs ´ e suficien sufi cientem tement entee forte fort e
para resistir `a concorrˆencia enc ia estrange est rangeira: ira: • A concorrˆ encia encia estrangeira ´e injusta e prejudica outros pa´ pa´ıses quando se baseia em sal´ arios baixos: • O com´ ercio ercio explora um pa´ pa´ıs e o torna pior se seus trabalhadores recebem recebem sal´ arios muito mais baixos que os de outras na¸c˜ oes:
1.5
Conclus˜ao ao
Um pa´ pa´ıs com baixa remunera¸c˜ c˜ao ao e baixa produtividade possui vantagens comparativas, parativas, logo, o com´ ercio ercio internacional ´e capaz de beneficiar esse pa´ pa´ıs. O problema da redu¸c˜ cao a˜o do bem estar da classe trabalhadora n˜ao est´a no livre com´ ercio, ercio, mas na baixa produtividade dos trabalhadores.
2
O mode modelo lo de pr prop opor or¸¸c˜ c˜ ao ao de fatores fato res (Modelo (Mo delo de Heckscher-Ohlin)
Cap´ Cap´ıtulo 4. Krugman & Obstfeld: Economia Internacional (8a ed.) O trabalho n˜ao ao ´e o unico u ´ nico fator de produ¸c˜ c˜ao, ao, como dita o modelo ricardiano. No mundo real, r eal, o com´ c om´ercio ercio ´e explicad ex plicadoo tanto t anto por p or diferen¸cas na produtividade, quanto por diferen¸cas cas nos recursos nos recursos e e outros fatores de produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao dos pa´ıses. ıse s. • Teoria de Heckscher-Ohlin: enfatiza a interrela¸c˜ cao ˜ao entre as propor¸c˜ c˜oes oes
em que fatore fatoress de difere diferent ntes es produ¸ produ¸c˜ cao a˜o est˜ao ao dispon´ dispon´ıveis em diferentes pa´ pa´ıses e as propor¸ prop or¸c˜ coes ˜oes em que eles s˜ao ao utilizados na produ¸c˜ cao ˜ao de diferentes bens.
2.1
O modelo modelo de uma econ economi omia a com dois dois fato fatores res
Supondo que cada economia possa produzir dois bens (tecidos e alimentos) e que a produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao de cada bem exija o uso de dois fatores de produ¸c˜ cao ˜ao ilimitados (trabalho (trabalho e terra). terra). Definimos Definimos como: • • • • • •
aST : alqueires de terra para produzir um metro de tecido. aLT : horas de trabalho para produzir um metro de tecido. aSA : alqueires de terra para produzir uma caloria de alimento. aLA: horas de trabalho para produzir uma caloria de alimento. L: oferta de trabalho da economia. S : oferta de terra da economia.
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insumos depende do custo dos insumos que melhor lhe convir. A escolha dos insumos depende relativo de terra e trabalho: sendo w o sal´ario ario por hora de trabalho e r o custo de um alqueire de terra, a escolha depender´a da raz˜aao w o w/r /r.. Pre¸ cos cos de fatores e pre¸cos cos de bens Sendo o mercado em concorrˆ encia encia perfeita, ent˜ao ao a concorrˆ encia encia entre os produtores de cada setor assegurar´a que o pre¸ o pre¸co co de cada bem seja igual a seu custo de produ¸c˜ cao. ao ˜ . J´ a o custo de produ¸c˜ cao ˜ depende dos pre¸cos cos dos fatores, isto ´e, e, se o pre¸co co da terra aumentar, o pre¸co co de qualquer bem relacionado com o uso da terra terr a tamb´em em aumentar´ aume ntar´a. A importˆancia ancia do pre¸co c o de um fator para o custo de produzir um bem depende da quantidade desse fator utilizada na produ¸c˜ao ao desse b em. Isto ´e, e, se a produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao de um bem envolver bastante o uso da terra, o aumento no pre¸co da terra ter´a grande impacto no pre¸co co do bem. Logo, existe uma rela¸c˜ c˜ao ao entre a ra a raz˜ z˜ ao ao sal´ sa l´ ario-renda ario-renda da terra ( terra (w/r w/r)) e a raz˜ao ao dos pre¸cos ( cos (P P T T /P A ). Quando a raz˜aaoo P T ao ao entre terra e trabalho tamb´ tamb´em em T /P A aumenta, a raz˜ aumenta na produ¸c˜ cao a˜ o dos dois dois bens. bens. Quan Quando do a raz˜ raz˜ ao entre terra e trabalho ao aumenta, ent˜ao ao o produto marginal do trabalho em termos daquele bem tamb´em em aumenta. Logo, os trabalhadores descobrem que seu sal´ario ario real est´a mais alto em termos termos de ambos os bens. Por Por outro lado, lado, o produto maginal da terra cai e os propriet´arios arios de terras descobrem que sua renda real reduz em termos de ambos os bens. Portanto, altera¸c˜ coes ˜oes nos pre¸cos cos dos bens n˜ao a o s´ o alteram a distribui¸c˜ c˜ao ao de renda, como aumentam a renda dos trabalhadores e reduz a dos propriet´arios. Recursos e produto Supondo que a economia se encontra em pleno emprego de suas ofertas de terra e trabalho, a aloca¸c˜ c˜ao ao dos recursos em uma economia com dois fatores pode ser caixa. determinada pelo diagrama pelo diagrama de caixa. Dados os pre¸cos cos de tecidos e alimentos e as ofertas de terra e trabalho, a aloca¸c˜ c˜ao ao dos recursos da economia ´e identificada i dentificada pelo cruzamento cruzamento das duas
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2.2
Efeitos do com´ com´ ercio ercio internacional internacional entre entre economias com dois fatores
Examinando, Examina ndo, agora, agora , para duas economias, economi as, Local Lo cal e Estrangeiro, Estrangeir o, que fazem com´ercio, ercio, sabe-se que essas duas economias s˜ao ao semelhantes (demandas por tecidos e alimentos idˆenticas enticas e detˆ em em a mesma tecnologia). A ´unica unica diferen¸ diferen¸ca ca consiste nos seus recursos: recursos: Local possui uma rela¸c˜ c˜ao ao trabalho e terra mais alta que em Estrangeiro. Pre¸ cos cos relativos e padr˜ ao ao do com´ co m´ ercio erc io • Lo L ocal ca l ´e trabalho-abundante pois trabalho-abundante pois sua raz˜ao ao trabalho-terra trabalh o-terra ´e mais ma is alta; • Estr E stran angei geiro ro ´e terra-abu t erra-abundante ndante .
Exemplo: Os EUA tˆem em 80 milh˜ oes de trabalhadores e 200 milh˜oes oes o es de alqueires (raz˜ao ao trabalho-terra de 1 para 2,5) e a Gr˜a-Bretanha a-Bretanha tem 20 milh˜oes oes
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Com´ercio erci o e distri dis tribui bui¸ c˜ c¸˜ ao ao de renda re nda Um aumento no pre¸co Um aumento co dos tecidos aumenta tecidos aumenta o poder de compra do trabalho em termos dos outros bens, enquanto reduz o poder de compra da terra em termos dos outros bens. Assim, no Local, se os pre¸cos cos relativos aumentarem , as pessoas que ganham renda via trabalho saem ganhando, enquanto as que ganham renda via terra saem perdendo. perdendo. No Estrangeiro, Estrangeiro, caso os pre¸cos cos relativos relat ivos ca´ ca´ıssem ısse m , os trabalhadores saem perdendo, enquanto os propriet´arios arios de terra ganham. Teorema de Stolper-Samuelson: Os propriet´arios arios de fatores abundantes de um pa´ıs ıs obtˆem em ganhos ganh os do com´ercio, erci o, mas os propri pro priet´ et´arios arios dos fatores escassos saem perdendo. Equaliza¸ c˜ cao a ˜o dos pre¸cos cos de fatores Na presen¸ca ca de com´ercio ercio internacional, internacio nal, os pre¸ p re¸cos cos dos bens convergem. Essa convergˆ ver gˆencia enc ia leva le va `a convergˆ c onvergˆencia enci a dos do s pre¸ p re¸cos cos relativos de terra e trabalho ( equaliza¸ c˜ cao a ˜o dos pre¸ cos cos de fatores). fatores). Se Local e Estrangeiro tiverem os mesmos pre¸cos cos relativos de tecidos e alimentos, ent˜ao ao ter˜ao ao os mesmos pre¸cos cos de fatores. Essa equaliza¸ equaliza¸c˜ c˜ao ao se d´a pela incorpora¸c˜ c˜ao ao dos seus fatores de produ¸c˜ c˜
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• Modelo de fatores fato res espec e spec´ ´ıficos : ıficos : Enquanto Enquanto o trabalho trabalho pode ser alocado livre-
mente pelos setores, tamb´ em em devem ser levados em conta outros fatores espec´ıficos ıficos de determinad d eterminadas as ind´ustrias. ustrias. O modelo ´e ideal para entender a distribui¸c˜ cao a˜o de renda, mas inadequado para analisar o padr˜ao ao de com´ co m´ercio erc io.. • Modelo de Hecksher-Ohlin : Hecksher-Ohlin : V´ arios arios fatores de produ¸c˜ cao ˜ao podem ser alocados pelos setores. setores. O modelo leva leva a um entendimen entendimento to mais profundo profundo de como os recursos direcionam os padr˜oes oes de com´ercio, ercio, apesar apesa r de ser mais dif´ dif´ıcil de trabalhar com ele. De modo geral, s˜ao ao casos espec´ espec´ıficos de um modelo mais geral, que descreveria uma economia mundial com com´ ercio. ercio. Cada caso ´e capaz de explicar somente eventos/situa¸c˜ c˜oes oes espec´ esp ec´ıficas. ıfic as.
3.1
O modelo-padr˜ ao ao para pa ra uma economia com com´ ercio ercio
Possibilidades de produ¸ c˜ c˜ ao ao e oferta ofer ta relati rel ativa va Supondo que cada pa´ pa´ıs produza dois bens, alimentos (A) e tecidos (T) e que a fronteira fronteira de possibilidades possibilidades de produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao seja uma curva suave. A quantidade que a economia efetivamente efetivamente produz pro duz sobre a fronteira ´e dada pelos pre¸cos cos pre¸cos cos relativos P T /P , isto ´ e, e , que maximize o valor do produto pro duto T A a pre¸co co de mercado, P T a no ponto em T QT + P A QA . Logo, a economia produzir´ 1 que as linhas de isovalor tangenciar a fronteira de possibilidades de produ¸c˜ao. ao.
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Pre¸ cos relativos e demanda cos Supont Supontoo que a quant quantida idade de consum consumida ida seja seja igual igual a quant quantida idade de produzi produzida da na economia, temos que: P T = P T = V T QT + P A QA = P T DT + P A DA = V Em oposi¸c˜ cao ˜ao ao que ser´a produzido, a economia escolher´a consumir consumir no ponto que a linha de isovalor tangenciar a curva de indiferen¸ca mais alta (ponto de maior bem estar poss´ıvel). ıvel).
Como a economia consumir´a menos tecidos que produziu, esse excedente ser´ a exportado; o contr´ario ario acontece com o consumo de alimentos. Caso o pre¸co co relativo P T a mais declinada e, T /P A aumente, a isovalor ficar´ consequentemente, a curva de indiferen¸ca ca tangenciar´a em um ponto ainda mais elevado, representando um ganho social: as pessoas consumir˜ao ao mais de ambos os bens. Aumentar˜ao ao as importa¸c˜ c˜oes oes de alimentos e as exporta¸c˜ coes ˜oes de tecidos. Sendo os termos de troca definidos pela raz˜ao ao do pre¸co co do bem que um pa´ pa´ıs inicialmente exporta exp orta e o pre¸co co do bem que ele inicialmente importa (no caso, P T T /P A ), um aumento nos termos de troca aumenta o bem estar de um pa´ pa´ıs (consumo aumenta), enquanto um decl´ınio nos termos de troca troca reduz reduz o bem est de ´
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Por um lado, o crescimento no resto do mundo aumenta o mercado para as nossas exporta¸c˜ coes; o˜es; por outro, significa maiores concorrˆencias. encias. Para esclarecer essas contradi¸c˜ coes, o˜es, o modelo-padr˜ao ao de com´ercio ercio explica os diferentes di ferentes efeitos e feitos do crescimento econˆomico omico no mundo com com´ercio. ercio. Crecimento viesado: quando a fronteira de possibilidades de produ¸c˜ c˜ao ao se desloca para fora mais em uma dire¸c˜ cao a˜o que em outra. Isto ´e, e, se o pa´ıs ıs Local Lo cal produzi p roduzirr tecidos, teci dos, um crescimento cresc imento viesado vi esado para tecidos te cidos aumenta a produ¸c˜ cao ˜ao (para qualquer pre¸co co relativo de tecidos dado), enquanto a produ¸c˜ cao a˜o de alimentos alimentos reduz. Assim para o mundo todo, a oferta mundial mundial
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3.2
Tarifas e subs su bs´ ´ıdios ` as as exporta ex portac˜ c˜ oes oes
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Logo, os pre¸cos cos relativos de tecidos no mundo aumentam e, portanto, os termos de troca do Local melhoram, relativo ao Estrangeiro. Efeito dos subs´ıdios ıdios as a `s exporta¸ c˜ c˜ oes oes Supondo que Local ofere¸ca ca um subs´ subs´ıdio de 20% sobre o valor de qualquer tecido exportado. exportado. Logo, o pre¸co co interno dos tecidos ficar˜ao ao 20% mais caros com rela¸c˜ c˜aaoo aos alimentos.
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As tarifas e os subs´ subs´ıdios tem efeitos opostos sobre os termos de troca.
4
A Nova Nova Teoria Teoria do Com´ ercio ercio Internacional Internacional
Cap´ Cap´ıtulo 6. Krugman & Obstfeld: Economia Internacional (8a ed.)
4.1
Teoria da concorrˆ concorrˆ encia encia imperfeita
Em um mercado com concorrˆencia encia p erfeita, as firmas s˜ao ao tomadoras tomadoras de pre¸cos cos , ou seja, os vendedores n˜ao ao influenciam no pre¸co co que se paga pelo produto. Cada produtor individual de determinado bem representa uma fra¸c˜ ao ao muito pequena do mercado desse bem. Por outro lado, caso existam apenas algumas firmas produzindo certo bem, dizemos que elas est˜ao ao em em concorrˆ concor rˆ encia enci a impe i mperfei rfeita ta,, isto ´e, e, quando as firmas s˜ ao capazes de influenciar o pre¸co ao co de seus bens e que conseguem vender mais somente reduzindo seus pre¸cos. cos. Nesse caso, as firmas s˜aao formadoras o formadoras de pre¸cos cos . Um exemplo dessa estrutura de mercado ´e o monop´ olio olio puro, puro, um mercado onde a firma n˜ao ao enfrent en frentaa concorrˆ con corrˆencia. enci a.
Monop´ olio olio Para uma firma monopolista, monop olista, a Demanda ´e negativamente inclinada incli nada (´e poss´ıvel ıvel
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Portanto, seja a demanda dada por: Q = A = A − B · P Em que a A a A e B s˜ao ao constantes. E a receita marginal por: RMg RM g = P = P − Q/B Essa equa¸c˜ c˜ao ao revela o hiato o hiato entre o pre¸co co e a receita marginal , que depende da quantidade Q vendida e da declividade B da curva curva de demanda. Isso implica implica que quanto maior Q, menor RM g, j´ a que uma a diminui¸c˜ cao a˜o nos pre¸cos cos custa mais para a firma. Logo, isso implica: P − RMg RM g = Q/B = Q/B Custo m´ edio edio e custo marginal: margina l: Sendo C Sendo C M e o custo m´ edio edio (custo total da firma dividido pelo seu produto) e CM g o custo marginal, a rela¸c˜ c˜ao ao entre esses dois custos ´e expressa por: C = = F + F + C · · Q Em que F que F ´ ´e o custo cus to fixo e c ´ c ´ e o custo cust o marg m arginal inal.. Logo o cust c ustoo m´edio edi o ´e dado d ado por: por : CM e = C/Q = C/Q = F = F /Q + c
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Hip´ oteses: Supondo oteses: Supondo que as firmas s˜ao ao capazes de vender mais quanto maior for a demanda pelo produto e quanto maiores forem os pre¸cos cobrados pelos concorrentes, ent˜ao ao a demanda pode ser encontrada por: Q = V = V · [1/n [1/n − b · (P (P − P )] P )] Em que V que V s˜ao ao as vendas totais da ind´ustria ustria (medida de tamanho de mercado), n ´e o numero u ´ mero de firmas na ind´ustria, ustria, b ´e a resposta resposta das vendas vendas a seu pre¸co co (constante), P P ´e o pre¸co co cobrado pela pr´opria opria firma e P P pe p e o pre¸ pr e¸co co m´edio edi o cobrado cobrado pelos concorrentes. concorrentes. Se cada firma cobrar o mesmo mesmo pre¸co, co, todas ter˜aaoo um share de 1/n 1 /n e, e, portanto, vender˜aao V o V /n unidades. /n unidades. Equil´ıbrio ıbrio de mercado: mercado : Supondo que todas as firmas da ind´ustria ustria s˜aaoo sim´ si m´etri et ricas cas isto ´e, e, possuem possuem a mesma mesma demanda demanda e fun¸c˜ c˜ao ao custo. custo. Para Para analisa analisarr
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Isto ´e, e, quanto mais empresas no mercado, maiores ser˜ao ao os custos m´ edios. edios. No entanto, entant o, tamb´em em vemos ve mos que, que , ceteris paribus , mercados maiores (aumento em V em V )) reduzem os custos m´edios, edios, j´a que, em mercados maiores, haver´a mais empresas e mais vendas, e a pre¸cos cos menores. Uma varia¸c˜ cao a˜o positiva em V em V declina declina a curva CC . CC . Como a curva P curva P P n˜ao ao varia em rela¸c˜ cao a˜o as vendas, ela se mantem constante. Logo, um aumento no tamanho de mercado diminui o pre¸co e aumenta o n´ umero de empresas. Consumidores preferir˜ao ao um mercado grande a um pequeno. Mercado isolado vs Mercado intergrado
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ajustados pelas respectivas demandas, gerando um pre¸co menor para o exterior e maior para o dom´estico. estico.
5
Instrumentos Instrumentos de de Pol´ Pol´ıtica Comercial
Cap´ Cap´ıtulo 8. Krugman & Obstfeld: Economia Internacional (8a ed.) Anteriormente, Anteriormente, descrevemos as causas e os efeitos do com´ ercio ercio internacional sobre os pa´ıses ıses e como uma economia eco nomia mundial funciona f unciona com o com´ercio. ercio. Agora, analisaremos as diferentes pol´ıticas ıticas comerciais que as na¸c˜ coes o˜es podem adotar.
5.1
An´ alise alise de tarifas
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Logo, ao pre¸co P co P 1 , os consumidores demandam D 1 e os produtores ofertam O1 . Assim, Local importar importar´ a´ (D ( D1 − O1 ), uma vez que h´a um excesso de demanda. A mesma an´alise alise pode ser feita quando o pre¸co co sobe para P 2 . No enta entant nto, o, quando o pre¸co ´e P A , a oferta ´e igual a demanda, logo, n˜ao ao h´a necessidade de se importar mais desse bem.
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4 Portant Portanto, o, a introdu¸ introdu¸c˜ c˜ao ao da tarifa aumenta o pre¸co c o no Local para P T e T
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5.4 5.4
Resumo sumo
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economistas argumentam, que, na pr´atica, atica, as pol´ pol´ıticas comerciais s˜ ao ao mais in-
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