Resumen Modelo de Posibilidades

 

OVKHI@FKXDS HF ^SACDXFZI^AI

XFZI^AI HF ^DSAJALAHIHFS FKODYVF XFZI^ÁVXACD HF JALL D¸BIKLDK AKXZDHVCCAÓK Iktaeui`fktf li psacdldeài sf bijài cfktrihd fk rfsdlvfr lis haoacultihfs hf lis pfrsdkis, hfgikhd hf lihd li iltfrkitavi hf pdhfr akhieir `és i odkhd sdjrf iquflld quf kds bicf sfktar   jafk. Fxastfk aktfktds hf havfrsis ahfis, cihi `uy cdk uki cirictfràstaci `uy pirtaculir fk fl é`jatd hf su li tfripai, uk qufhfs‐ ipdrti uki iltfrkitavi fs dkis Jalls D¸Bikldk quafk trivás trivás hf “Xf “Xfrip ripai ai pfrsdkigf hf pds pdsaja ajalahi lahihfs ‐ jus jusci ci erik iyuhi iyuhir r i lis pfrs pfrsdki i sdj sdjrfl rfllfv lfvir ir susi  prdjlf`is. 9. JADEZIOÀI HF JALL D‑BIKLDK Jall D‑ Bikldk kicaó fl : hf iedstd hfl iùd 916:. Ál ouf uk kaùd ijusihd sfxuil`fktf  pdr su ijufld i lds 2 iùds hf fhih, ld cuil trigd cd`d cdksfcufkcai su sfksajalahih y ta`ahfz Li dpdrtukahih hf vavar fk uk bdeir kufvd, hdkhf pdhài sfktarsf fk piz ld bazd pfksir  fk có`d lis pfrsdkis lderijik tfkfr áxatd y prdspfrahih, cd`d ti`jaák quf ciusiji quf lis pfrsdkis oufrik oflacfs.

:. HF HFOAK OAKAC ACAÓK AÓK HF XF XFZI ZI^AI ^AI HF ^D ^DSAJ SAJALA ALAHI HIHFS HFS Li tfripai hf pdsajalahih fs uk `átdhd y uki oaldsdoài hf li psacdtfripai, efkfril`fktf  jrfvf, quf fkoitazi fl rfspftd y li cdlijdricaók, isà cd`d li foacicai y lds rfsultihds drafktihd i lis sdlucadkfs.

3. IKXF XFCF CFH HFK FKX XFS Huriktf Huri ktf li hácih hácihii 916> 916>,, lis aktfrrdei aktfrrdeiktfs ktfs quf sure sureàik àik fk fl ci`pd hf li psacd psacdtfrip tfripai, ai, ear eariji ijikk fk tdrkd il prd prdjlf jlf`i `i fk sà. Sak f`jir f`jired, ed, Jriu Jriulad lad @dkt @dktilv ilvdd y @ak @akucb ucbak ak `dhaoacirdk táckacis yi fxastfktfs cd`d fl gufed hf rdlfs, f`plfikhd kufvis táckacis hf iccaók. Huriktf lds ÷lta`ds :> iùds, prfhd`akiji li huhi hf cd`d li pfrsdki fs cipiz hf cdkstruar cdks truar sdluc sdlucadkfs adkfs,, safkhd fl `dhf `dhfld ld tfripáut tfripáutacd acd hf Stfvf Sbiz Sbizfr fr quafk rfspdkh rfspdkhff i fs fsti ti kf kfcf cfsa sahi hih= h= kica kicafk fkhd hd ibà ibà fl `d `dhf hfld ld hf Ja Jall ll D‑ D‑Bi Bikl kldk dk,, fl cuil cuil vi `é `éss illé illé,, aktfktikhd i`plair lis pdsajalahihfs piri lds picafktfs. @altdk Fracmsdk ouf dtri a`pdrtiktf akolufkcai piri fl `dhfld hf D‑Bikldk, hfjahd i quf prictaciji uki tfripai fspfcail. Fstis aktfrvfkcadkfs haofrfktfs frik uki fvdlucaók hf su préctaci akacail cdk fl `átdhd hf li bapkdsas. Ástf prftfkhài akolufkcair il clafktf fk su tdtilahih, piri pdhfr rd`pfr li raeahfz fk su pfrcfpcaók hf li rfilahih y lis rflicadkfs quf `iktafkfk fl sàktd`i. 8. SV^VFSXDS 8.9. Fl ci`jad tfripáutacd kd sóld fs pdsajlf, ssak ak prdjijlf  Kihi pufhf pfr`ikfcfr fstétacd, tdhd sfr vavafktf fsté fk cdktakud ci`jad, yi quf cihi iccaók quf quf biei`ds eefkfri fkfri uk ci`jad. Lds tfripfutis hhfjfk fjfk tfkfr fk cufkti quf “Fl ci`jad fs a`pdsajlf quf kd sucfhi‐, pdrquf flld akoluyf fk su odr`i hf bicfr li tfripai. 8.:. Lds akhavahu akhavahuds ds tafkfk rfcursds y bijalahihfs piri ci`j ci`jair air D¸Bikldk cdksahfri quf lds picafktfs ijru`ihds kd cdksahfrik sus prdpads rfcursds, fl tfripfuti hfjfré juscir rfcursds fxastfktfs, pdsajalahihfs hf ci`jad  piri sdlucadkir fl prdjlf`i. prdjlf`i. 8.3. Li tirfi hfl tfripfuti fs ahfktaoacir y i`plair fl ci`jad Fl tfripfuti hfjf fstir itfktd il hascursd hfl picafktf y, fktrf tdhi li akodr`icaók quf cd`ukaci, fs ÷tal cfktrirsf fk ld l d quf pirfcf quf fsté oukcadkikhd.

 

OVKHI@FKXDS HF ^SACDXFZI^AI

8.8. Lis fxcfpcad fxcfpcadkfs kfs il prdj prdjlf`i lf`i rfprfs rfprfsfktik fktik uki dpdrtu dpdrtukahi kahih h piri plikt pliktfir fir sdlucadkfs y pdsajalahihfs fk fl outurd Zfsulti foaciz cfktrirsf fk ld quf fsté oukcadkikhd, fs hfcar, fk lis dcisadkfs fk quf fl prdjlf`i kd dcurrf, fs akhaspfksijlf sijfr quá bicfk lds picafktfs hf odr`i prdhuctavi fk lds `d`fktds fk quf fl prdjlf`i kd sf prfsfkti. 8.6. Sóld sf kfcfs kfcfsati ati uk ci`j ci`jad ad `àka`d pi piri ri prdhucar uk ukdd `és erik erikhf hf Cuik Cu ikhd hd lis lis pfrs pfrsdk dkis is lde lderi rikk uk pfqu pfqufù fùdd ci`j ci`jad ad fk su suss vahi vahis, s, sf sa safk fktf tfkk `dtavihis piri fofctuir `és, uki vfz akacaihd fl ci`jad, fs haoàcal hftfkfrld. 8.?. Biy `és hf uk ukii “vfrhi “vfrhih‐ h‐ d `ikfr `ikfrii hf vfr lis cdsi cdsiss Lis pfrsdkis sóld vfk li “vfrhih‐ hfshf uki pfrspfctavi= kd djstiktf, biy `és hf uk `dhd hf vfr lis cdsis. Fk tfripai, i vfcfs ld ÷kacd quf oilti piri akacair fl ci`jad fs vfr li satuicaók hfshf uki pfrspfctavi hastakti. 8.5.. Áko 8.5 Ákois isas as fk cdl cdlijd ijdric ricaók aók,, bij bijala alahih hihfs, fs, olfxaj olfxajala alahih hih y icd icdpli pli`af `afktd ktd fkt fktrf rf clafktf y tfripfuti Li tfripai hf pdsajalahihfs cdksahfri quf fl picafktf fs tik fxpfrtd cd`d fl tfripfuti, fk sus prdpais crffkcais, sfkta`afktds, f aktfktds hf sdlucaók y fl tfripfuti fs fxpfrtd fk lis odr`is hf oicalatir fl ci`jad, pdr ld tiktd, fs cdkvfkafktf ihfcuir lis prfeuktis, tirfis y cd`fktirads i cihi picafktf, td`ikhd fk cufkti su fstald il bijlir y sus crffkcais. d Bfrri`af Bfrri`afktis ktis piri od`fk od`fktir tir li cddpfr cddpfricaók7 icaók7 fgf fgf`pld `pld, uk ihd ihdlfs lfscfk cfktf tf “rf “rftri triàhd àhd‐‐ I.  pufhf Zd Zdtu tuli lir r pd pdsa sata tavi vi`f `fkt ktf7 f7  ^dr hfoakarsf pdsatavi`fk pdsatavi`fktf tf cd`d uk ,ihdlfscfktf “rfolfxavd‐. “rfo lfxavd‐. J. Iu Iutd tdcd cdko kofs fsaó aók k aktf aktfkc kcad adki kil7 l7  Fk ile ileuk ukis is dcis dcisad adkf kfs, s, sf djta djtafk fkff cddpfricaók hfl picafktf rfvflikhd ileuki akodr`icaók pfrsdkil. I fsti bfrri`afkti ti`jaák sf lf pufhf cdksahfrir uki odr`i hf “kdr`ilazir‐ fl prdjlf`i. C. Fl us usdd hf hfll bu bu`d `dr7 r7 Fs rfcd`fkhijlf “fl bu`dr pufhf rfhucar li tfksaók, ilfgir il picafktf hf sus prfdcupicadkfs y curir i lds quf suorfk‐. H. Li akc akclus lusaó aók k hfl prd rdj jlf lf`i `i hf hfk ktrd trd hf li kdr` dr`ilah lahih7 Fs icdksfgijlf cuikhd kds fkorfkti`ds i ci`jads fk li ftipi hfl cacld vatil. Fk fstis satuicadkfs, il cd`fktir quf fs uki ftipi, uk igustf il ci`jad, lds `af`jrds hf li oi`alai pufhfk ilavairsf y cd`fkzir i aktfktir kufvis iltfrkitavis hf bicfr orfktf i li satuicaók. F. Li sfk sfksajala sajalahih hih cu culturi lturill y fl rfspft rfspftdd pdr li aeu aeuilhi ilhih h hf sfxds sfxds77  Kd fs iprdpaihd quf fl tfripfuti a`pdkei ahfis sdjrf fl prdjlf`i quf fl picafktf/clafktf kd biyi `fkcadkihd, sak f`jired cuikhd fl  psacólded tfkei sdspfcbis hf `ilds tritds, akhieiri f akodr`iri hfl  prdjlf`i piri silvieuirhir silvieuirhir li aktferahih hfl picafktf. O. Fldeads7  Vki `ikfri hf usir lds fldeads fs cuikhd sf rfpdrtik fxcfpcadkf fxcfp cadkfss (`d`f (`d`fktds ktds fk lds quf sf bi `ikfg `ikfgihd ihd ihfcuihi` ihfcuihi`fktf fktf fl prdjlf`i).

8.2. Lds prfguacads hfl psacólded pufh pufhfk fk akoluar fk li harfccaók y lds rfs rfsultihds ultihds hf li tfripai Fl `dhfld hf tfripai quf flfea`ds piri trijigir cdk kufstrds picafktfs, lis aktfrvfkcad aktfr vfkcadkfs kfs quf fscde fscdef`ds f`ds,, tdhd bijli d rfspd rfspdkhf khf i “quaák “quaákfs fs sd`d sd`ds‐ s‐ cd`d  pfrsdkis. 8.1. Ákoi Ákoisas sas fk `ix `ixa`azir a`azir li foa foacicai cicai hf cih cihii sfsaók Fl tfrip tfripfuti futi f`paf f`pafzi zi li sfsaók cdk lis prfeuk prfeuktis7 tis7 “´Yuá “´Yuá fs ld quf quafrf ustf ustfhh cdksfeuar bdy hf fsti sfsaók4‐, “´Yuá fs ld quf lf akhaciré quf bi cdksfeuahd su

 

OVKHI@FKXDS HF ^SACDXFZI^AI

`fti piri li sfsaók hf bdy4‐ ^frd, fk dcisadkfs, fstd kd fs pdsajlf, y fl tfripfuti hfjf djsfrvir y fscucbir lis rfspufstis hfl picafktf, piri sijfr sa piri ál fs d kd a`pdrtiktf `ixa`azir li foacicai fk cihi sfsaók.

6. ^D ^DSX SXVZ VZI IH HFL FL XF XFZI ZI^F ^FVX VXI I Fl tfripfuti utalazi táckacis cd`d7 f`pitài, rfspftd, aktfrás efkuakd y sak guacads. D‑Bikldk akcdrpdri li itfkcaók i lis pdsajalahihfs, fl jilikcf fktrf fl pisihd, prfsfktf y outurd, cdk uki drafkticaók bicai fl ci`jad tfripáutacd. ^iri flld, fs oukhi`fktil quf fl tfripfuti djsfrvf fl `dhd fk quf fl picafktf `ikfgi fl lfkeuigf y quá fs ld quf tafkf saekaoacihd d a`pdrtikcai fk su vahi. ?. @D @DXA XA_I _ICA CAÓK ÓK ^I ^IZI ZI C CI@ I@JA JAIZ IZ ^dr ld cd`÷k fxastfk tfripfutis quf sf rfsastfk i vfr d i icfptir quf fl picafktf pufhf tfkfr sus prdpais `dtavicadkfs, y kd sf hik cufkti hfl fstihad hf ci`jad fk fl quf fl clafktf sf billi. ^rdcbismi y HaClf`fktf ahfktaoacirdk 6 fstihads hf ci`jad7 









^rfcdktf`plicaók7 Li pfrsdki kd sf hi cufkti hf quf fxastf uk prdjlf`i. Fs  pdr flld quf `ucbds hf fstds fstds picafktfs, llfeik djlaeihds pdr ile÷k oi`alair. Cdktf`plicaók7 Lds clafktfs rfcdkdcfk quf tafkfk ile÷k prdjlf`i y quf fs kfcfsirad fl ci`jad, pfrd quazé kd sijfk có`d pufhfk ci`jair lis cdsis. ^rfpiricaók7  Lds picafktfs sf `ufstrik `és ijafrtds i cdlijdrir cdk fl  psacólded. Fl trijigd sf cfktri fk iyuhir il picafktf i ahfktaoacir fl ci`jad quf hfsfi djtfkfr y i cdksahfrir fstritfeais piri lderir fsi `fti. Iccaók7 Fl picafktf yi fsté prfpirihd piri crfir ci`jads pdsatavds fk su vahi y fl tfripfuti pufhf iyuhir i a`plf`fktir y `dhaoacir fstritfeais. @iktfka`afktd7 Fl picafktf yi bi sdlucadkihd fl prdjlf`i pdr fl cuil ouf i tfripai. Ibdri biy quf fkodcirsf fk có`d `iktfkfr lds ci`jads pdsatavds quf ld iyuhirdk i lderir su `fti.

?.9. Érfis piri crfir ci`j ci`jad ad Fl `dhfld hf Jall D¸Bikldk pdkf ákoisas fk tdhis lis érfis7 cdekatavd, f`dcadkil y hfl cd`pdrti`afktd cd`pdrti`afktd.. Cihi pica picafktf fktf fs haofr haofrfktf fktf i lds hf`és, fs pdr flld quf cihi ukd lf hiré `és a`pdrtikcai i ileuki érfi fk fspfcàoacd. ^dr flld fl tfripfuti hfjf sfeuar y utalazir li quf tfkei `és sfktahd piri fl picafktf. - Fl érfi hf li fxpfrafkcai7  Sf rflicadki cdk li fxpfrafkcai aktfrki hf lds  picafktfs. - Fl cdktfxtd7 Sf rfoafrf i cuékhd y hókhf fxastf fl prdjlf`i, su orfcufkcai, huricaók, y quaák fsté prfsfktf cuikhd fl prdjlf`i sucfhf. - Fl ér érfi fi hf li ic icca caók ók d cd cd`p `pdr drti ti`a `afk fktd td7 Fl tfr tfripfu ipfuti ti cr crff ff fk li rfspdksijalahih hfl picafktf fk cuiktd i su cd`pdrti`afktd y icfpti tdhd tapd hf iccaók lfeil, pdsatavi, siluhijlf y átaci.

5. @DHF @DHFLD LD HF HF ^D ^DSA SAJA JALA LAHI HIHF HFS S I cdktakuicaók, sf prfsfktik ld quf cdksahfri`ds lds puktds fsfkcailfs hf ástf `dhfld (Ilodksd, :>>9)7

5. 5.9. 9. Zf Zfcd cdkd kdca ca`a `afk fktd td Q _ _il ilah ahic icaó aók7 k7  Fk ástf `dhfld, sf cdksahfri kfcfsirad rfcdkdcfr, vilahir f akcluar li fxpfrafkcai hf quafkfs sdlacatik tfripai= sa ÷kaci`fktf bicf`ds fstd li `iydrài hf lds  picafktfs kd ivikzirék `ucbd, sak f`jired, bicfrld fs fsfkcail piri quf ileuafk  pufhi ijrarsf i lis pdsajalahihfs. pdsajalahihfs. Hds táckacis `uy ÷talfs piri vilahir sdk7 akclusaók y kdr`ilazicaók.

 

OVKHI@FKXDS HF ^SACDXFZI^AI

Akclusaók7 Akcluar fs akcdrpdrir i li cdkvfrsicaók lis akquaftuhfs, fxpfrafkcais, djgfcadkfs d jirrfris quf fxprfsf fl picafktf, sak quf fstd sfi uk djstéculd bicai li sdlucaók. Ci`jair "pfrd" pdr "y", fk li cdkvfrsicaók cdk fl picafktf  pufhf sfr suoacafktf piri akcluar akcluar pdsajalahihfs - Kdr`ilazicaók7 Sf prdhucf uk fofctd trikqualazihdr cuikhd fl fxpfrtd pirfcf a`pf a`pfrtu rturj rjij ijlf lf iktf iktf li hfsc hfscra rapc pcaó aókk hfl hfl pr prdj djlf lf`i `i quf quf bicf bicf fl pica picafk fktf tf.. Cd`fktirads cd`d "kituril`fktf", "pdr supufstd", "fsd `f rfsulti oi`alair" sdk suoacafktfs piri kdr`ilazir.

-

5.:

5. 5.33

Cli Clirao raoaci acirr ^rdj ^rdjlf` lf`is is Q Harfcc Harfccadk adkfs, fs, I Ijra jrafkh fkhdd ^ds ^dsaja ajalahi lahihfs hfs - @ipi hfl prdjlf`i - Djgftavds - Fxcfpcadkfs - Vsir fl pisihd -

Ci Ci`j `jai airr L Lii @ @ik ikfr frii H Hff _ _fr fr,, H Hff B Bic icfr fr ^iri iyuhir i ci`jair li odr`i hf vfr li satuicaók, pufhfk utalazirsf prfeuktis drafktihis il outurd. Fk fstf tapd hf prfeuktis sf pahf i lds picafktfs quf a`ieakfk uk outurd sak fl prdjlf`i y hfscrajik hftillihi`fktf cd`d fs.

5. 5.88

Fv Fvil ilui uirr F Fll ^ ^rd rder erfs fsdd Q Zf Zfsu sult ltih ihds ds Vki bfrri`afkti piri hfoakarlds hf fsti `ikfri sdk lis prfeuktis hf fscili y hf  pdrcfktigf. Fstis prfeuktis ti`jaák kds iyuhik i fviluir fl prderfsd y lds rfsultihds.

5.6 5.6

^l ^lik ikfi firr L Lds ds ^r ^róx óxa` a`ds ds ^isd ^isdss Fs cdkvfkafktf pliktfir có`d cdktakuiré. Bicfr uk plik hf iccaók cdk tirfis fktrf sfsadkfs, d utalazir li táckaci hf prfvfkcaók hf rfciàhis. Cdk akvatir d suefrar, kds rfofra`ds i li `ikfri hf prfsfktir kufvis pdsajalahihfs hf iccaók il  picafktf.

5.?

Xfr`akir L Lii X Xffripai Li tfripai tafkf quf tfkfr uki "vahi kituril", fs hfcar, icijir cuikhd lis `ftis hfl clafktf sf biyik cdksfeuahd. I vfcfs, lds picafktfs sf jfkfoacaik cdk isastar i sfsadkfs hf tfripai sf`ikilfs (il cd`fkzir li tfripai) y hfspuás cihi hds sf`ikis d akclusd cihi `fs.

 

OVKHI@FKXDS HF ^SACDXFZI^AI

ZFOFZFKCAIS JAJLADEZÉOACIS   sdlucadkfs. s. ^rfvfkcaók fk Jfyfcicb, @. (9116). Aktrdhuccaók i li tfripai cfktrihi fk lis sdlucadkf aktfrvfkcaók fk siluh `fktil. Sili`ikci7 I`iru D¸Bikldk, J. (:>9>). ^rfeuktis orfcufktfs sdjrf li Xfripai hf ^dsajalahih. Djtfkahd hf ^dssajalaty Likh7 bttp7//www.jalldbikldk.cd`/OIYS/qufstadksij bttp7//www.jalldbikldk.cd `/OIYS/qufstadksijdutpdssajalatytbfripy/jalldbikldk.b dutpdssajalatytbfripy/jalldbikldk.bt`l t`l Djlatis, L. (:>>2). ^sacdtfripais cdktf`pdrékfis. @fxacd7 Cfkeief Lfirkake S.I. .

AKXFEZIKXFS7 Mirfk` Ieualir Yuaspf Lalaik Zi`ds Cilhfrdk Mitbfrakf Sirivai Fstfjik   