Red Chip Poker Late Position, Chapter 9

Red Chip Poker: Late Position

Limp-Shoving to Exploit the Table

(Villain’s flaw)

(Difficulty rating)

(Hero’s exploit)

Everything we do in poker is dynamic. We need to constantly understand the ebb and flow of our opponents and the table as a whole. Once you understand, then adjust accordingly so you take optimal lines. In this hand, I make an uncharacteristic limp because I felt the table dynamic would allow me to do so profitably. It all started with observation.  Whenever you walk up to a new table, I suggest doing so slowly and really checking everything out. Look at the hand in progress, look at each player, check stack sizes, and analyze which seats are available. Upon first glance there was only one seat open so I knew where I was going, but the table looked to be a little aggressive. A huge pot was happening, two uninvolved players were scoffing at each other, and everyone was looking quite happy to be involved in such a game. So I took my seat and was faced  with my first decision: how much should I buy in for? Most players do not even bother asking themselves this question, but it is an important one. At this table, I decided to buy in for the table minimum: 50BB, or $100 at this $1/$2 game. If the game was going to be splashy it would be easy to get all-in pre-flop with an edge. Likewise, it  would be easy to three-bet thr ee-bet and create a very small SPR pot with a big hand. Besides, if my original read of the table turned out to be wrong, I could just reach into my pocket, pull out an extra $200, and top up to the table maximum.  After an orbit, it became obvious that all of the table aggression was coming from a single player: pl ayer: the middle-aged guy with a ball cap in seat five. He was angry, grumbling about everything, and he seemed unable to smile. He was three to my left, another reason why I decided to buy in for a smaller stack size. He was fighting for a bunch of pots pre-flop and in one orbit had three-bet twice, once with 63o, and he raised multi-way limped pots twice.

62

Hands

$1-$2  Venetian 9:30PM UTG

Image:

Action:

Bad passive

Call/Call

$400

MP1

Tight passive

Call/Call

$600

Cutoff

Hero

Call/???

$100

Button

Tries to see cheap flops then fit or fold flop  Angry Maniac

Call

$150

$12

$400

Big Blind

Hand:

Starting Stack:

 Any time a player is predictable, he is exploitable. The Maniac is predictably aggressive. Often times in games with a single Maniac, the money is not only made from the Maniac, but also from the other players that try to limp in cheap to make a hand and beat the Maniac. With a short stack, we can comfortably get all the money in pre-flop while still having fold equity when we shove. Many people want to have a big pair when they do this. This chapter will show that that is not required.  There is so much available information on very splashy tables like this. Over a single orbit, or ten hands, we have been able to get a slight player profile on the majority of the table. When you first sit at a table make it your goal to pay a ton of attention for the first thirty minutes so you can form good player profiles. Once the Angry Maniac in the Big Blind predictably raises and UTG and MP1 call, we have our three options: call, fold, or raise. Calling:  This is not a good option here because we would have a very low SPR of about two ($88 in Stack to $50-$60 in pot.) We do not want this low of an SPR with a hand that only hits the flop about ⅓  of the time. Players who use smaller stack sizes voluntarily or due to losing some pots perform significantly better if they just stop calling pre-flop. If you are going to use a 30-50BB stack, then learn to leverage the stack size. Do not constantly call off chunks of your stack just trying to make a hand. Fold:  That does not seem very enterprising. We made a very uncharacteristic limp into this pot because it was likely we would get a chance to shove over the expected raise from the Maniac and calls from passive players. Raise: With this short of a stack, the only raise is all-in. With our call, there is already $50 in the pot and we have $88 left. If our raise would pot

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Red Chip Poker: Late Position

commit us, as the graphic below shows, we would rather use that money to increase the chances of getting a fold. A shove here will have some chance of folding players out.  To simplify for now, we assume everyone but the Maniac is going to fold. (We will look at this assumption later, leaving the possibility for one of the limpers to come along instead.) It is a math decision really, but non-mathy players may not have ever done this kind of analysis before. So let us work through it together. Start  with the facts:  At the time of our shove we are risking $98 since the original $2 limp no longer belongs to us and thus we don’t factor it into the shove.  At the time of our shove there is $40 in the pot.  We can raise $88 since the first $10 is calling the raise and $2 is already in the pot.  To use a fold equity calculator (for example the one found at http://redchippoker.com/fold-equity)  we also need a single  win percentage when called. •

• •

•

For most calculators, you need to estimate your winning percentage. For this book, a custom chart has been created. This chart shows a contour plot of our expected value based on all possible “Villain folds percentages” and all possible “win when called percentages”:

64

Hands

EV of shove of $98 into a pot of $40 over a bet of $10 100 90

 5 0

80 70    t   n   e   c   r   e   p    d    l   o    F

2  5   0        0       5

60 50 - 2  5   

0    

   5     7

2       5      

40 30

-  5     0   

20 10

       0        5

-  2      5     

-  7     5    

0 0

0      

20

      5       7

     0      0     1

2         5       

40 60 Win percent wh en call ed

80

100

 The bottom of the y-axis of the chart represents the Villain folding zero percent of the time. The far left of the x-axis represents us never winning at showdown. The value in this corner of the chart is -98. That makes sense: if  Villain always calls and we always lose, we should lose our full bet. As we move right on the x-axis we increase our win percentage when called. Eventually, between 40%-50%, this becomes a breakeven move. As we win an even larger percentage when called, the amount won becomes larger until in the lower right hand corner we win 100% of the time. In this case,  we would win the pot and our bet from the Villain. However, neither of these extremes of winning or losing 100% of the time are ever true. For example we only have 78% equity when he calls with a dreadful Q2o. On the opposite end, we still have 14% equity when he dominates us with KK.

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Red Chip Poker: Late Position

EV of shove of $98 into a pot of $40 over a bet of $10 100 KK

90

Q2o  5 0

80 70    t   n   e   c   r   e   p    d    l   o    F

2  5   0        0       5

60 50 - 2  5   

0    

   5     7

2       5      

40 30

-  5     0   

20 10

       0        5

-  2      5     

-  7     5    

0 0

0      

20

      5       7

     0      0     1

2         5       

40 60 Win p ercent wh en call ed

80

100

 These vertical lines show us the actual extremes of “win when called percentages.” Against KK we have the lowest amount of equity, and against Q2o we have the most amount of equity. His calling range will never be exactly KK, nor will it ever be exactly Q2o, so the new vertical lines represent the extreme best and worst cases for us. We are unlikely to be called by our best case scenario of Q2o, so that edge needs to be moved to the left even further in practice. Notice in these shrunken limits that on the far left if the Villain folds over 60%, then we are always in the positive area of the chart. If we win just over 45% of the time when called, then we are also always in the positive area of the chart.  To find where we actually are in this chart between these extremes, let us start by thinking about the range of hands that the Maniac is raising. We need to understand what percentage of his raising range he will fold if we shove. The more often he folds, the more money we make. For simplicity’s sake, let us say he will always call our shove with 88+/AJ+, which is 7% of hands.

66

Hands

If he raises preflop with 22% of hands, and only calls with 7% of hands, then he is folding 68% of the time. Here is what a 22% opening range looks like.

 We have seen him open much wider than this, so even this tight estimate for his opening range shows we are always in positive Expected  Value.  What if he raises even wider with 33% of hands? This is what that range looks like:

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Red Chip Poker: Late Position

He is folding 79% of the time. And, of course, if he raises wider, then  we expect even more folds. On the other hand, another possibility is that he calls wider and that gives him a weaker range.  There is a fine balance to consider. The wider range he calls our shove  with, the more our equity increases, but the less folds we can expect preflop. Conversely, the more he folds preflop the less equity we have when called. Let us explore our equity against a few different calling ranges:

 vs. Calling range Equity: Us vs. Them 22+/AT+/KQ 42% vs. 58% 88+/AJ+ 37% vs. 63%  TT+/AQ+

31% vs. 69%

Required fold % by Villain 7%

26% 41%

 There is a certain percentage of hands that the Villain will put all his money in with. This is known as his stack-off range. Notice that against pretty much any realistic stack-off range we are a dog. Some players may see that we are on the bad side of equity and say, “Well, we are behind and thus we have to fold.” But that is not really the way it works since there is overlay in the pot. There is $40 in the pot that we are fighting for.  Against all of these ranges we need some percentage of folds (as seen in the last column) by the Villain for this to be a good move. Thinking back on his preflop raising range, we thought he would fold against our shove quite often. Remember, if he raised with 23% of hands and called with 88+/AJ+ (which is 7% of hands) he is folding 70% of the time. If we only need 26% of folds to be breakeven and expect to get 70%, it is easy to see how profitable this shove is going to be. If he snaps us off with AA, that does not mean we made a bad play; it means we got unlucky. These plays will be swingy, but they will win over time. In this hand we are not against just the maniac, there are three other players that could possibly call our shove as well. With what hands are they likely to limp pre-flop and then call our shove? Do they have hands like AA or KK? No. They would have raised those hands at some point pre-flop.  With the exception of the Button, all the other players limped and then called. (Although the Button has not had a chance to respond to the

68

Hands

Maniac’s raise, with our three bet, it seems likely that he will fold.) Think first about the hands the other players would limp-call with. A range including all small-medium pairs, some suited connectors, and some weaker Broadway hands all make sense. They could have some decent hands like 88, 99, and AQ, but those represent a small percentage of their limp/calling range.  We can assume that the limpers will call with a range of 88-JJ, AQ, AK. Not every player would limp with these hands (especially JJ and AK), but  we cannot rule them out for these players because they might have been trapping. Our KQs has 38% equity against that range. So we need some percentage of folds when we shove, which we expect from such passive players. Overall, we can predict this will be a profitable shove against the table.  The Maniac is surely folding often enough when we shove. The limpers are surely folding often enough when we shove. And we always have a decent chunk of equity for the rare times we do get called. This is a great semibluff shove situation. We are not shoving for value, rather we are shoving to contend for the dead money in the pot and using math in our favor. $1-$2 Image: Action: Hand: Starting  Venetian Stack: 9:30PM UTG Bad passive Call/Call/ $400 Fold MP1 Tight passive Call/Call/ $600 Fold Cut off Hero Call/$100 $100 Button

Tries to see cheap flops then fit or fold flop Big Blind Angry Maniac

Call/Fold

$150

$12/Fold

$400

Everyone folded and we increased our stack by $38 without ever seeing a flop. Because we knew the math, it made the shove quite easy. Reading table dynamics we went for a limp/re-raise from the cutoff  with KQs. This is far from our standard play but it looked like the best way to exploit an overly aggressive player. It also allowed the weak limpers to put in money that they would rarely defend once we shoved. If it limped through without a raise, then we spent $2.  There is a huge difference between limping to see a cheap flop and limping with a realistic plan to limp-raise shove with decent equity. As a default, we advocate you rarely limp pre-flop. However, if you have a good 69

Red Chip Poker: Late Position

reason to limp pre-flop and a plan for making money because you limped then by all means.

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