Pronosticos Los Managers
September 17, 2022 | Author: Anonymous | Category: N/A
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- CHOQUEHUANCA QUISPE, Me - CHOQUEPUMA VIVEROS, Lisb
ry th
o( i%'re(o( i%'re(o( e% el *e(+a,*e(+a,-oo *e abo'a*o( abo'a*o( Si) 4.!9 LLo(
3(e ($a 3(e ($ai iza zai ie% e%)o )o e e+o +o%e %e%, %,ia iall ,o ,o%% a1 a1$( $()e )e *e )e )e%* %*ee S$+o%'a $e el +ro%()i,o i%i,ial +ara ebrero e( *e ($aizaie%)o (ele,,io%a*a( (o% a .! : .".
F) ;l)io +erio*o @ Te%*e%,ia
TEN=ENCIA
T) e()e +erio*o P>l)io ro%()i,o @ l)io +erio*o *o?
a .! : .".
Chart Title nC
Co lumn
Co lu mn !
Co lu mn H
Resuelva el problema 4.19 con a = .1 y ß = .8. Usando MSE, de
MES
INGRESO
PRONOSTICO INICIAL
Febrero Marzo Abril Mao #$%io #$lio A'o()o
70 68.5 64.8 7!.7 7!.& 7".8
65 65.5 66.!6 66.57 67.49 68.6! 69.99
INGRESO
: .".
Febrero Marzo Abril
70 68.5 64.8
65 65.6 66.05
#M$a%ioo #$lio
77!!..7& 7".8
6666..0867 67.64
MES
: .8.
=e(ia,i% ab(ol$)a
65 65.9 66.77 67.0" 68.&! 69.68
5 ".6 !.97 4.68 ".99 &.!"
7!.&0
7!.&
ermine la constante de suaviamiento !ue proporciona el me"or pron#stico.
TEN=ENCIA
PRONOSTICO CON TEN=ENCIA
0 0.4 0.608
65 65.9 66.77
0.45 0.8" !.06 !.&!
67.0" 68.&! 69.68 7!.&0
=e(ia,i% ab(ol$)a
l)io +erio*o @ l)io +erio*o?
$ER%&'& ) ()i,o "".5!"
R*+&*M%E-& Cal,$la%*o lo( e1er,i,io( +ro+$
%,ia ".&788
o o e ($a za e% o e+o%e%, a ,o ,o% a $( e *iere%,i *ie re%,iaa e%)re llaa *ea%*a *ea%*a rea reall el +ro%() +ro%()i,o i,o ,o ,o abi(a abi (all e i%, i%,l$( l$(oo e% o,a,i o,a,io%e o%e(( (e ale1a ale1a (olo (olo +or $
T 908
e()o( e*ia%)e el
e a e% e% e%, a $e a *i,-o o*elo%o e( a $%i*a*.
Re)oe el +rob Re)oe +roblea lea 4. 4."!. "!. Co Co+le)e +le)e llo( o( ,Hl, ,Hl,$lo( $lo( **el el +ro% +ro%()i, ()i, a1$()e a1$ ()e *e ))e%* e%*e%, e%,ia ia ++ara ara lo( +er +erio* io*o( o( 77 8 9. Co% Co%ir iree $e $e (
a la( *e la )abla 4.!
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