PROJECT REPORT ON AGRA LUCKNOW EXPRESSWAY

Project Report On AGRA - LUCKNOW EXPRESSWAY Expressway Total Distance 302 km (Agra Link Road 2.634km And Lucknow Link Road 9.688km) A Thesis Submitted In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirement For the Degree of Bachelor of Technology In Civil Engineering Submitted By: Shivam Srivastav

1230900049

Shivam Srivastava

1230900050

Piyush Prabhat

1230900038

Devnath

1230900021

Harsh Verma

1230900025

Manish Yadav

1230900030 Under the supervision of Vikrant Goswami Asst. Professor

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL

Raj Kumar Goel

ENGINEERING

Engineering College, Pilakhuwa Hapur (UP)

Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Technical University, Lucknow (UP), India April, 2016

UNDERTAKING RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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We declare that the work presented in this thesis entitled “AGRA-LUCKNOW EXPRESSWAY”, submitted to the Department of Civil Engineering, Raj Kumar Goel Engineering College, Pilkhuwa, Hapur for the award of the Bachelor of Technology degree in Civil Engineering from Dr. A. P. J. Abdul Kalam Technical University, Lucknow Uttar Pradesh is our original work. The contents of the thesis do not form the basis for the award of any other degree to the candidate or to anybody else from this or any other University/Institution. Further, we have not plagiarized or submitted the same work for the award of any other degree. In case this undertaking is found incorrect, we accept that our degree may unconditionally be withdrawn.

S. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6

Name Shivam Srivastav Shivam Srivastava Harsh Verma Piyush Prabhat Devnath Manish Yadav

Univ. Roll No.

Signature

1230900049 1230900050 1230900025 1230900038 1230900021 1230900030

Date : April 27, 2016 RKGEC, Pilkhuwa, Hapur

RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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CERTIFICATE Certified that Shivam Srivastav (1230900049), Shivam Srivastava (1230900050), Harsh Verma (1230900025), Piyush Prabhat (1230900038), Devnath (1230900021), Manish Yadav (1230900030), has carried out the project work presented in this thesis entitled “AGRA-LUCKNOW EXPRESSWAY” for the award of Bachelor of Technology in Civil Engineering from from Dr. A. P. J. Abdul Kalam Technical University, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh under my supervision. The thesis embodies results of original work, and studies are carried out by the student himself and the contents of the thesis do not form the basis for the award of any other degree to the candidate or to anybody else from this or any other University/Institution. (Vikrant Goswami) Astt. Professor Dept. of Civil Engg. Raj Kumar Goel Engineering College, Pilkhuwa, Hapur, UP, INDIA Date : 27/04/2016

RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We all need support and guidance in every walk of our life. But for this we must not forget to express our gratitude to those who have provided us with their support and guidance and are always there to help us. First of all we would like to express our gratitude to our supervisor, Mr. Vikrant Goswami, Asst. Prof. of department of civil engineering, RKGEC Hapur for providing us the opportunity of doing this important project under his guidance and sharing his experience and knowledge with us. We would also like to express our sincere gratitude and thanks to our HOD Prof. Mahendra Parsad for his support and guidance. We would also like to convey our sincere thanks to all the faculty members of civil engineering department for being supportive. Their support and guidance, throughout the project is of great impotence and is really appreciated.

Shivam Srivastav Shivam Srivastava Harsh Verma Piyush Prabhat Devnath Manish Yadav

RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

1230900049 1230900050 1230900025 1230900038 1230900021 1230900030

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Content Description i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii.

Pages No

Undertaking....................................................................................................................2 Certificate.......................................................................................................................3 Acknowledgement..........................................................................................................4 Contents..........................................................................................................................5 Abstract..........................................................................................................................7 Abbreviation.................................................................................................................11 List of Table.................................................................................................................12 List of Figure................................................................................................................13

Chapter 1 : Introduction..................................................................................................14-20 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Project Background.....................................................................................14 Scope of Service..........................................................................................15 Key Traffic Study Finding..........................................................................15 Key Engineering Survey Finding................................................................17 Design Proposals.........................................................................................17 Initial Environmental Impact Assessment..................................................19 Social Assessment.......................................................................................20 Financial Evolution.....................................................................................20

Chapter 2 : Project Description.......................................................................................21-24 2.1 2.2 2.3

Review of Concept Report..........................................................................21 Project Area................................................................................................21 Major Intersection.......................................................................................24

Chapter 3 : Methodology and Design Standards.........................................................25 - 40 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.10 3.11

General........................................................................................................25 Design Basis...............................................................................................25 Collection and review of earlier report.......................................................25 Socio-Economic Profile..............................................................................26 Traffic Survey, Analysis and Projection.....................................................26 Engineering Surveys and Investigation......................................................26 Traffic Design.............................................................................................30 Engineering Design.....................................................................................31 Cross Fall...................................................................................................36 Roadway Width at Cross-Drainage Structure...........................................36 Environmental and Social Screening........................................................40

Chapter 4 : Traffic Survey and Analysis.....................................................................42 - 79 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4

Traffic Surveys...........................................................................................42 Classified Traffic Volume Counts..............................................................44 Origin-Destination Survey.........................................................................45 Analysis of survey data..............................................................................45

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4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10

Estimation of Traffic growth rates by Elasticity Method...........................64 Traffic Forecasting Methodology...............................................................64 Project Influence Area................................................................................65 Growth of Registered Vehicles in Project Influence area..........................65 Economic Growth of the States and All-India...........................................66 Forecasted Traffic Total.............................................................................68

Chapter 5 : Cost Estimates..............................................................................................80 -83 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4

Methodology...............................................................................................80 Quantification of Items/Quantities..............................................................80 Specifications..............................................................................................82 Cost Estimate..............................................................................................83

Chapter 6 : Financial Analysis.......................................................................................84 - 86 6.1 Project Financials......................................................................................84 6.2 Key Assumptions.......................................................................................84 6.3 Land Cost...................................................................................................85 6.4 Funding......................................................................................................86 6.5 Financial Indicators...................................................................................86 Chapter 7 : References...........................................................................................................87

ABSTRACT RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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We have undertaken the project of “Lucknow -Agra expressway” which passes through Agra, Firozabad, Etawah, Manpuri, Kannuj, Unnao, Lucknow cities. The expressway under construction is a 6- lane plain cement concrete road which has a provision to expanded to 8- lanes in future. The typical cross-section is shown in fig-2. We have carried out work on Methodology, Traffic Survey, Cost Estimate, Financial Analysis. The project of expressway is scheduled for 1/04/2014 to 31/03/2017 In this project we have visted the site of construction many times and has used the information provided. In the project report prepared by MORT&H and which as has available on the internet.

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Location Map

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Fig 1

Cross-section of Pavement

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Fig 2 L – Section of Road

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Fig 3 Abbreviation

UPEIDA PPP ROW TOR ADT AADT PCI NSDP GDP DGPS CBR VDF MSA BC DBM WMM GSB PQC EIA IRR MORT & H EPC IDC WDV E-IRR SLM P-IRR

Uttar Pradesh Expressways Industrial Development Authority Public Private Partnership model Right of Way Terms of Reference Average Daily Traffic Average Annual Daily Traffic Per Capital Income Net state domestic product Gross Domestic Product Differential Global Positioning System California Bearing Ratio Visual Data Format Multiple Shear Angle/Meridian Stress Assessment Bituminous Concrete Dense Bound Macadam Wet Mix Macadam Granular Sub Base Pavement Quality Concrete Environmental Impact Assessment Internal Rate of Return Ministry of Roads Transport & Highways Energy performance certificate Intangible drilling costs Written Down Value Equity - Internal Rate of Return Straight Line Method Project - Internal Rate of Return

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List Of Tables Table No

Title

Page No

1.1 Summary of AADT (2012-2013)..............................................................................16 1.2 Traffic Estimated for Future Years...........................................................................17 1.3 Summary of MSA adopted.......................................................................................18 1.4 Flexible Pavement Composition for New Construction...........................................19 1.5 Flexible Pavement for Service Roads.......................................................................19 1.6 Pavement Composition for Rigid Pavement.............................................................19 3.1 Summary of Land use along the Link Road...............................................................28 3.2 Summary of Pavement Condition for Fatehabad to Firozabad Link Road...............29 3.3 Equivalency Factor....................................................................................................31 3.4 Free Flow Speed........................................................................................................31 3.5 Indicative Design Standards for Main Carriageway.................................................33 3.6 Geometric Design Standards for Interchange Elements...........................................34 3.7 Design Speed.............................................................................................................34 3.8 Safe Stopping Sight Distance....................................................................................35 3.9 Radius of Horizontal Curve......................................................................................35 4.1 Traffic Survey Schedule........................................................................................................43 4.2 PCU Factors adopted for the study (IRC 64-1990)................................................................47 4.3 Average Daily Traffic at Various Traffic Locations..............................................................48 4.4 Peak hour on Various Count Stations........................................................................53 4.5 Total Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations............................................................58 4.6 Tollable Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations.......................................................58 4.7 Seasonal Correction Factors...................................................................................................63 4.8 Section wise AADT................................................................................................................64 4.9 Growth of Vehicle Registration in Uttar Pradesh...................................................................66 4.10 Growth of Vehicle Registration in Delhi................................................................................67 4.11 Growth of Vehicle Registration of Trucks (All India)...........................................................67 4.12 Growth in Economic Indices of Uttar Pradesh State (at 2004-05 Prices)..............................68 4.13 Growth in Economic Indices of Delhi at 2004-05 Prices......................................................68 4.14 Growth in Economic Indices of All India at 2004-05 Prices.................................................68 4.15 Details of Alternate Road via NH-2, NH-91 & SH-40 and Project Road (Expressway).......70 4.16 Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Alternate Road...........................................................70 4.17 Details of Existing Routes and Project Road.........................................................................73 4.18 Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway).........73

5.1 Project Cost................................................................................................................82 RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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5.2 Summary of rates for major construction works........................................................83 5.3 Summary of Costs......................................................................................................84 6.1 Key Assumptions.......................................................................................................85 6.2 Taxation......................................................................................................................86 6.3 Land Cost...................................................................................................................86 6.4 Funding...................................................................................................................................87 List of Figures Figure No

Title

Page No

Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3

Road Map.............................................................................................................................8 Cross-section........................................................................................................................9 L-section.............................................................................................................................10 Figure 2.1: Alignment of Agra – Lucknow Expressway.....................................................................22

Figure 3.1: Method for attaining super-elevation.....................................................................36 Figure 4.1 Traffic Survey Location Map....................................... ........................................44 Figure 4.2 Daily variation of Traffic at Various Count station................................................52 Figure 4.3: Hourly Variation of Traffic at Various Count Stations.........................................57 Figure 4.4: Tollable Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations .....................................63 Figure 4.5: Alternative Routes for Link 1- 9............................................................................68 Figure 4.6: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 7..........................................................................71 Figure 4.7: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 6..........................................................................71 Figure 4.8: Alternative Routes for Link 1- 5............................................................................72 Figure 4.9: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 4..........................................................................72 Figure 4.10: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 3........................................................................72 Figure 4.11: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 2........................................................................72 Figure 5.12: Alternative Routes for Link 3 – 7........................................................................74 Figure 5.13: Alternative Routes for Link 3 – 9........................................................................74 Figure 5.14: Alternative Routes for Link 4 – 7........................................................................75 Figure 5.15: Alternative Routes for Link 4 – 9........................................................................76 Figure 5.16: Alternative Routes for Link 5 – 6........................................................................77 Figure 5.17: Alternative Routes between Link 5 – 7...............................................................77 Figure 5.18: Alternative Routes for Link 7 – 9........................................................................78 Figure 5.19: Diversion Curves.................................................................................................79

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CHAPTER – 1 1.1 Project Background Good transportation systems are lifeline to the area they serve. Roads bring about all round development in the region. A good road network helps in the success of all development activities, be it in the sphere of movement of people and goods, agriculture, commerce, education, health, and social welfare, or even maintenance of law and order and security. To keep pace with the forth coming economic development within the State the Uttar Pradesh Expressways Industrial Development Authority (UPEIDA) has been entrusted to develop the access controlled Agra - Lucknow Expressway on Public Private Partnership mode (PPP) by the Government of Uttar Pradesh (GO UP). The Agra - Lucknow Expressway Project will extend the connectivity of the State Capital with National capital with High Speed Corridor. The proposed expressway starts on the Agra Ring Road near village Madra and ends on SH-40 (Lucknow – Mohan- Hasanganj – Rasulabad road) outskirts of Lucknow. The project also includes the following two link roads: 1) Agra Link Road providing connectivity to proposed Agra Ring Road being undertaken by Agra development Authority. The proposed Agra Ring Road is being built on priority basis by Agra Development Authority and would provide linkage to end point of Yamuna Expressway and NH-2. In case the proposed development of ring road does not materialize then in order to provide connectivity with Yamuna Expressway additional 7 km of link road needs to be build by the concessionaire which will be a change in scope. The length of this link is approximately 1.5 km with Trumpet Interchange on the Agra Ring Road. The cross-sectional elements of this link would be exactly same as that of the proposed Expressway. 2) Firozabad Link Road: the present single lane road will be widened to two lanes with paved shoulder; the existing bridge on Yamuna is already a 2 lane bridge. The length of this link is 15km. 3) Kannuj Link Road: the state highway has been converted to national highway (NH 91A) and hence only paved shoulder will be added as improvement. The length of this link road is 8 Km. 4) Lucknow Link Road: as there is no timeline set by the Lucknow Development Authority to develop the outer ring road for Lucknow, this link road is required to provide connectivity of the expressway form Lucknow city. The end point meets at SH-40 (Lucknow – Mohan - Hasanganj – Rasulabad road) near Khushalganj. The length of this link road is 9.6 Km and it utilizes the irrigation land available on the right bank of Sharda Canal (Lucknow branch). The cross-sectional elements of this link would be exactly same as that of the proposed Expressway, as there is limited ROW available along the canal RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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service roads on either side would not be provided. It has been proposed that as and when Lucknow Outer Ring Road is constructed, concessionaire of the Expressway will provide suitable interchange which will be a change in scope. As the cross sectional elements for the Agra and Lucknow link roads are same hence both these links have been included in the length of Expressway. In view of above the total length of the Expressway from proposed Agra Link Road (Start point) to end point at Lucknow on SH 40 is 301 Km The Consultants have undertaken feasibility studies for the project which includes costing to assess technical, financial & economic viability, and social assessment studies, their analysis etc. As a part of the study to establish the viability, a Feasibility Report has been prepared after carrying out Engineering Surveys and appropriate assessment of a preliminary design considering the engineering conditions, the present traffic and its growth, the environmental impact assessment as well as the social aspects along with cost assessment. This report among other aspects covers the details on finalization of alignment, grade separator interchanges and structures along the proposed Expressway & Link roads, digitization of the Khasra maps of ROW and marking of alignment on digitized maps, identification of Tourist spots, eco-friendly structures, water bodies etc. along the expressway. 1.2 Scope of services As per the Terms of Reference (TOR), the project study consists of preparation of the following: Stage 1 - Inception Report Stage 2 - Feasibility Report  Sets of Drawings  Investigation Reports  Preliminary Designs  Preliminary Costing  Financial Analysis The Feasibility study will include the following:  Project proposals  Traffic survey, analysis and Report  Utility Relocation Plans  Land Plan Schedules Stage 2(a) - Environment and Social Impact Assessment Reports and getting Forest Wildlife Clearance. 1.3 Key Traffic Study Finding Various traffic surveys and analysis have been carried out for addressing the objectives of the project stretch. The surveys conducted include 7 days traffic volume count at 4 locations, 3 days traffic volume count at 5 locations and 1 day origin – destination and commodity RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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movement survey at 7 locations etc. The study aims at obtaining the existing traffic and travel characteristics on the project corridor and forecasting for project horizon year considering various constituent streams and for various scenarios. The results of analysis will form inputs for designing the pavement, carrying out financial analysis, decisions regarding grade separators, pedestrian facilities, and wayside amenities along with design of intersections along the project road. As Agra-Lucknow expressway is new alignment so the survey locations have been selected at the connecting highway to the project road. The project road is connecting to NH-2, NH-91, MDR, SH-62, SH-25, SH-21, SH-40 and NH-24. Based on the traffic study, the potentially divertible traffic from the neighbouring highways has been worked out on the project road. The project road has been divided into 8 homogenous sections based on traffic flow. The average daily traffic (ADT) has been converted to average annual daily traffic (AADT) using seasonal factors. The AADT is the input for various analyses like traffic forecast, economic and financial analysis, capacity augmentation, pavement design, etc. The following table provides the AADT in base year 2012-13 at 8 homogeneous sections. S. No.

Section

AADT in No’s

AADT in PCUs

1

Section 1 (km 0.000 to km 24.000)

10288

24504

2

Section 2 (km 24.000 to km 72.000)

9726

23849

3

Section 3 (km 72.000 to km 87.000)

9080

22591

4

Section 4 (km 87.000 to km 109.000)

9365

23423

5

Section 5 (km 109.000 to km 165.000)

11532

27419

6

Section 6 (km 165.000 to km 196.000)

11027

26570

7

Section 7 (km 196.000 to km 263.000)

9095

22724

8

Section 8 (km 263.000 to km 266.860)

10949

25381

Table 1.1: Summary of AADT (2012-2013)

1.3.1 Traffic Forecast Traffic demand plays the most important factor in deciding the type of facility (infrastructure) to be provided. This in turn determines likely benefits and costs to develop the same. A highway project of this nature calls for significant investment. Prediction of traffic demand becomes an important task and has to be carried out accurately. For the design of pavement and to plan for the future maintenance programme and for economic & financial evaluation, it is necessary to have realistic estimate of the size of traffic in the design period of 30 years. Traffic forecasting is made by determining the past trend of traffic flow along the corridor and by use of economic models developed to co-relate past vehicle registration data and economic indices such as per capital income (PCI), net state domestic product (NSDP) and gross domestic product (GDP). By using the elasticity values obtained from the economic models and the likely rate of growth of indicators, the mode wise growth rates are obtained. By applying this growth rates, future traffic volume is estimated.

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S. No.

Section

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

1

Section-1

24504

40628

59304

76110

98077

2

Section-2

23849

39086

56703

72884

94022

3

Section-3

22591

38690

57427

73162

93683

4

Section-4

23423

40866

61216

77784

99317

5

Section-5

27419

46866

69506

88724

113789

6

Section-6

26570

46327

69379

88230

112797

7

Section-7

22724

40550

61437

77817

99048

8

Section-8

25381

45022

68027

86433

110360

Table 1.2: Traffic Estimated for Future Years

The project road facilities have been designed for level of service ‘B’ for the concession period of 30 years. For more details please refer to the Chapter 5 (Traffic Survey and Analysis). 1.4 Key Engineering Survey Finding The detailed reconnaissance survey has been carried out to identify and plan various surveys and investigations. Topographic survey has been carried out using differential global positioning system (DGPS), total station and auto level as per standards prescribed. Please refer clause 3.6.4 of this report for more details. The material investigations have been carried out and various quarries / borrow areas have been identified and tested. The soaked CBR values of from borrow areas varies from 7.0% to 10%. For pavement design purposes we have adopted 10% CBR. A detailed Geo-Technical investigation works have been carried out to know about the subsurface features and soil profiles and relevant soil and rock properties in order to design the founding structures for the proposed structures along the expressway. Pavement design has been carried out and pavement composition based design life, projected traffic, VDF, MSA and CBR values has been determined. 1.5 Design Proposals 1.5.1

Preliminary design

 Geometric design

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The horizontal and vertical design has been carried out for the project as per the Guidelines for Expressway by Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MOSRT&H) and also latest IRC: 38 and IRC SP: 23 for a suitable Design speed as suggested in inception report. The detailed improvement schemes are finalized based on the Guidelines for Expressway and latest IRC: SP41, MOSRT&H Type Design Manual for Intersections on National Highways and Manual for Safety in Road Design.  Alignment proposal After carrying out field investigations and reconnaissance survey of existing / proposed alignment, the consultants have arrived at alignment proposals. As the cross-sectional elements are same for Agra and Lucknow link roads and also they provide connectivity from start to end; their lengths have been included in the expressway. Hence the total length of the expressway is 301 Km and the total length of two link roads are 23.0 Km.  Typical Cross Section Based on the traffic considerations, geometric standards and existing site conditions, the typical cross sectional elements are framed for project expressway and link road. 1.5.2 Service Roads Two lane service roads of 7.0 m width on intermediate basis has been proposed throughout the length of the proposed expressway. 1.5.3 Pavement Design Flexible pavement has been adopted for new carriageways throughout the project length except at toll plaza locations. In the toll plaza area, rigid pavement has been adopted.  New Flexible Pavement Design  The pavement design basically aims at determining the total thickness of the pavement structure as well as thickness of individual structural components. The following assumptions are considered for the preliminary pavement design. The basic assumptions considered while designing are as follows:  Design Life for bituminous layers has been assumed as 10 years after construction.  For non-bituminous layers design life has been assumed as 30 years .Sub grade CBR (for design) has been taken as 10%.  Design life for Cement Concrete pavement has been assumed as 30 years The project road has been divided into eight traffic homogeneous sections, design for which are furnished below: Homogeneous Section Start to end of Expressway Firozabad Link Road

Design Life 10 Yrs MSA Obtained MSA Adopted 29.80 30 8.5 10

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Kanauji Link Road

9.5

10

Table 1.3: Summary of MSA adopted

Section BC

New Crust Composition (mm) DBM WMM GSB

Start to end of Expressway

40

95

250

200

Total Thickness 585

Firozabad Link Road Kanauj Link Road

40 40

50 50

250 250

200 200

540 540

Table 1.4: Flexible Pavement Composition for New Construction

 Service Roads Service roads have been designed for 10 MSA for 10% CBR. The crust composition of service roads is given in Table below. Pavement Layer Bituminous Concrete Dense Graded Bituminous Macadam (DBM) Wet Mix Macadam (WMM) Granular Sub-Base (GSB) Total

Thickness (mm) 40 50 250 200 540

Table 1.5: Flexible Pavement for Service Roads

 Toll Plaza Rigid Pavement has been proposed at the toll plaza locations. 30 years design life has been assumed for finding out the pavement composition at toll plaza locations. The proposed composition of rigid pavement is given in Table below: GSB (mm) 150

DLC (mm) 150

PQC (mm) 300

Table 1.6: Pavement Composition for Rigid Pavement

1.6

Intial Environmental Impact Assessment

The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is aimed at determining the environmental impacts due to the construction and operation of the project road. The major environmental disciplines in the EIA study include topography and land use, soil and agriculture, geology and seismicity, water quality, climate and meteorology, air quality, noise level, terrestrial and aquatic ecology. Project specific environmental management plan is being prepared for ensuring the implementation of the proposed measures during construction phase of the project.

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The UPEIDA has certain organizational and institutional capacity for satisfactory implementation of the EMP. 1.7 Social Assessment The main objective of conducting social screening is to provide inputs of social concerns to be detailed in project design and to avoid or minimize the adverse social impacts with the best possible engineering solutions at minimum cost in close coordination between engineering, environmental and social experts during the entire design process. The social screening exercise is intended to assess the negative impacts (direct, indirect or cumulative) and to suggest mitigating measures to avoid or at least minimize the adverse impacts on nearby communities and natural environment, peoples and properties falling on the direct path of road development, people indirectly affected by the way of disruption of livelihood, breakage in community linkages, impacts arising from land acquisition and resettlement, on indigenous people (SC, ST etc.) and on human safety etc. 1.8

Financial Evolution

To assess whether the project is a viable / profitable proposition, the return to concessionaire / investors is measured in terms of the equity IRR, which is estimated on discounted cash flow technique. The returns expected by investors are function of the value of equity issued on the Indian stock markets, interest rates on commercial loans, the risk profile of the investment and alternative investment opportunities. The target equity IRR, for the project to be done on commercial format / PPP basis, have been taken as 16 percent. It is concluded that the project is viable on DBFOT (Toll) basis for a concession period of 30 years.

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Chapter – 2 Project Description The development of the High Speed Corridor between Agra and Lucknow by construction of Access Controlled Expressway Project will extend the connectivity of the State Capital with National capital In case the proposed development of ring road does not materialize then in order to provide connectivity with Yamuna Expressway additional 7.0 km of link road needs to be build by the concessionaire which will be treated as a change in scope of work 2.1 REVIEW OF CONCEPT REPORT The total length of the Expressway and four link roads as given in the concept report are as under: The proposed Agra Ring Road is being built on priority basis by Agra Development Authority and would provide linkage to end point of Yamuna Expressway and NH-2. In case he proposed development of ring road does not materialize then in order to provide connectivity with Yamuna Expressway additional 7.0 km of link road needs to be build by the concessionaire which will be a change in scope. The length of this link is approximately 1.5 km with Trumpet Interchange on the Agra Ring Road. The cross-sectional elements of this link would be exactly same as that of the proposed Expressway. There is no timeline set by the Lucknow Development Authority to develop the outer ring road for Lucknow, this link road is required to provide connectivity of the expressway form Lucknow city. The end point meets at SH-40 (Lucknow– MohanHasanganj – Rasulabad road) at Lucknow. The length of this link road is 9.6 Kms and it utilizes the irrigation land available on the right bank of Sharda Canal (Lucknow branch). The cross-sectional elements of this link would be exactly same as that of the proposed Expressway. It has been proposed that as and when Lucknow Outer Ring Road is constructed, concessionaire of the Expressway will provide suitable interchange which will be a change in scope. After studying the concept report completing the reconnaissance survey and detailed discussions with the Government Officials it was decided to include the above two link roads to the Expressway Length. The remaining two links will still be part of the project and will be developed to the standard of two lanes with paved shoulder.

2.2

PROJECT AREA 2.2.1 Location define

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The Project expressway and link roads traverse in the state of Uttar Pradesh, with total length of 324.00Kms (Approx). The project stretch passes through Agra, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etawah, Kanpur, Kannauj, Hardoi, Unnao and Lucknow districts. Index Map given in Figure 2.1 refers to the location of the Project stretch.

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Figure 2.1: Alignment of Agra – Lucknow Expressway RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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2.2.2 Terrain and Land Use

The terrain on this stretch can be termed as Plain and flat throughout. Important places and districts along the project stretch are Agra, Firozabad, Etawah, Mainpuri, Kannauj, Kanpur, Hardoi, Unnao and Lucknow. 2.2.3

Alignment

The proposed alignment of the Expressway is a Greenfield alignment. The two link roads to be developed / widened on the existing alignment. Horizontal sharp curves of 2 numbers are present along the proposed Expressway which have absolute minimum curve radii but would cater for proposed design speed; adequate traffic management schemes needs to be provided so as to avoid accident at this location. The alignment of project link road passes through built up sections. These urban / village stretches act as bottlenecks to the free flow of traffic due to mixed local and through traffic, presence of ribbon development on either side and uncontrolled access from side road/cross roads, lack of traffic segregation and pedestrian facilities. 2.2.4 Existing Road Width The existing carriageway of the project link road is 3.5m single lane for the Firozabad Link and 2 lanes (7.0m) for the Kannauj Link road 2.2.5 Major Intersections Proposed alignment intersects with 11 major roads along the road across the following Locations           

Agra Ring Road ODR-Firozabad to Fatehabad NH-2 SH-83(Etawah –Manpuri) SH-29 (Kariban-Simra) NH-92(Kusmara-Etawah) NH-91A (Sikari-Urmada) NH-91 (Kannauj-Kanpur) SH-38 (Ganj Muradabad-Bangermau) MDR (Sandila to Bangermau) NH-25A

2.2.6 Right of Way The ROW has been taken as 110m for the proposed expressway; 18m (60 feet) Firozabad Link road and 36m (110 feet) for Kanauj Link road

2.2.7 Bridges and Cross Drainage Structures RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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There are 10 major bridges, 49 minor bridges, 1 overpass, and 9 flyovers, 3 ROB, 1 ROB cum major bridge, 52 VUP and 138 PUPs have been proposed along the project corridor. In addition to above, Firozabad Link road has 1 major bridge, 29 culverts and Kannauj Link road has 1 major bridge, 3 minor bridge and 38 culverts. 2.2.8 Utilities As the proposed expressway alignment traverses through agricultural land chances of having underground utilities for most of the stretch is remote. There are a few existing electrical poles along the Green field section which would require relocation There are several utility lines like electric, telephones lines, gas pipe line, OFC lines and irrigation canals which are running parallel to the project link roads and cross at many locations and may require relocation especially on the Firozabad and Kannauj Link road. 2.3 Exitising Project Facilities At present there are no pick-up bus stops / shelters, truck lay-byes and Toll Plazas present along the project link roads. Proposed Expressway alignment is a Green field alignment with majority of length passing through agricultural/rural land; hence no existing facilities are present.

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Methodology and Design Standards 3.1 Genral All the services are carried out strictly as per TOR and within the timeframe given for each activity/ submission. In general, the Specifications and Standards primarily based on the Guidelines for Expressway by Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MOSRT&H) have been followed. Specific Codes and Guidelines of the IRC and publications of the MOSRT&H including circulars & general/special publications, technical Specifications & Standards have been kept in view In depth consultation process with various stakeholders including UPEIDA, ADA, LDA, MORT&H, Railways, NGOs and other consultants working in project influence area was held on a regular basis apart from regular discussion between the consultant & UPEIDA on the progress of the work. As time and quality are the essence of the project, before any analysis and designs, all the parameters to be used were got approved by the Client during preparation of draft reports so there is minimum changes later on, i.e. minimum time requirement in the finalization of final reports without compromising quality 3.2 Design Basis The broad methodology has been generally developed keeping standard practices / IRC guidelines, with certain additions and modifications as felt necessary and discussed with Uttar Pradesh Expressway and Industrial Development Authority (UPEIDA) during various review meetings. 3.3 Collection and review of earlier report The Consultants have collected and reviewed the relative study reports to have a better understanding of the project & also for getting some inputs as a part of the Services. The study reports thus considered for review are: 1) Concept Report for Development of Agra – Lucknow Access Controlled Expressway (Green Field) Project. 2) Road development plan in the region by UPEIDA. 3) Master Plan reports within Project Influence Area especially for Agra and Lucknow districts. Other details are also collected and collated to form recommendations by considering the following inputs:  Quarry/Borrow Area details.  Soil Test results.  Geo-technical investigation reports.  Condition and Inventory survey of the existing bridges and culvert situated o upstream and downstream of the proposed alignment (only on proposed link roads).  Existing Utility Services/Utility Plans.  Traffic Studies.  Development Plans for major towns and areas along the project road.  Availability of construction materials and unit rates for work items.  Recent acquisition rates for different types of land/immovable properties. RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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

Right of Way Details from Revenue maps.

3.4 Socio-Economic Proile Socio-economic profile of the influence area is prepared, after study of data on growth of population and density, human settlement pattern, land use, sub-profiles of agriculture and industries, economic base, trends in socio-economic indicators, development scenarios for various sectors, transport infrastructure and its uses such as use of waterways & rail transport etc. The relevant data is collected from the following sources: • State Statistical Abstracts • State Year Books • Census Publications – Districts and State • Hand Books of Statistics of Districts in the area of influence • Economic Surveys of the State constituting the zone of influence • The Bureau of Economics & Statistics of Uttar Pradesh

3.5

Traffic Survey, Analysis and Projection

Traffic surveys will include (only those surveys would be carried out which are required for correctly forecasting the traffic along the proposed road):  

Classified Traffic Volume Counts Origin - Destination and commodity Movement Surveys

Standard procedures given in IRC Codes have been followed for carrying out Traffic Surveys. The data arrived from the Surveys has been analysed to determine ADT of surrounding roads of the proposed project road and Travel characteristics. Growth of traffic in project road influence area and also on the project road is regarded as the most important aspect since the whole project design and financial evaluation is based on this. To establish the realistic growth rates, road transport data, population growth rates and socio-economic parameters have been studied and analyzed. The growth rates for passenger vehicles have been worked out on the basis of annual growth rate of population and per capita income while the growth rates of freight vehicles have been based on the rate of growth in agricultural, industrial and tourism sectors and historical traffic data

3.6 Engineering Surveys and Investigation 3.6.1 Reconnaissance Survey of the Project Road Reconnaissance survey has been carried out immediately before the kick off meeting to examine the general characteristics of the Project Corridor. Consultants have undertaken a site visit along with the experts in the field of Highway, Pavement and Bridge Engineering. This has helped in the detailed appreciation of the project corridor in terms of traffic and other engineering measures and judicious assessment of the following salient factors have generally been made:  Topography of the area  Terrain and soil conditions  Climate and Rainfall RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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       

Drainage Characteristics Traffic patterns and preliminary identification of traffic homogeneous sections of road in the area. Railway lines and other critical utilities/services having impact on road alignment Land use (agricultural, build-up, forest land, etc.,) Environmental factors Availability of materials Any other useful information The findings are documented in this report.

3.6.2 Road Inventory and Pavement Condition for Link Roads 3.6.2.1 Road Inventory Survey The purpose of the road inventory survey was to characterize and record the essential elements and features of the project link roads along its existing alignment. The inventory survey has been carried out from Firozabad Link Road from Ch. 0 + 000 to Ch. 15+000 and Kannauj Link Road from Ch. 0 + 000 to Ch. 26+000 of NH-91A for collection of existing road side features at every 200m interval or every change of feature whichever is earlier. The road inventory has been referenced to the existing kilometre posts established along the roadside.                

Terrain Land Use (Built-Up / Agricultural / Forest / Industrial / Barren) Village / Town Carriageway Width (Type / Width / Condition Median Width Service Roads(Type/Width) General Drainage Condition Embankment Height (m) Details of Cross Roads (Location / Road / C.W. Width) Curves (Horizontal / Vertical) Bus Stop Locations Retaining Structures Location of Water Bodies (Lakes & Reservoir etc.) Right of Way Culverts, Bridges And other Structures (Type, Size & Span Arrangement) Remarks

Terrain - The entire terrain along the project link roads are in plain terrain. Land Use - The land use patterns along the project road are Built-up, Industrial, Barren and Agricultural in which predominant land use pattern is Agriculture. There is ribbon development along the majority of the road with small settlements observed at frequent intervals. The summary of observed land use along these two link roads are given

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Table 3.1 : Summary of Land use along the Link Roads

3.6.2.2 Pavement Condition Survey The survey on general pavement condition was primarily a visual exercise undertaken by means of slow drive-over survey, and supplemented with measurements where necessary. Visual assessment was carried out from a vehicle, with speed not exceeding 20 km/hr and stopping at various locations at suitable intervals and wherever necessary, due to variations in pavement conditions. At the points of stoppage, simple measurements using measuring tape and straight edge were carried out to quantify pavement deficiency on a representative basis. Aspects of pavement conditions assessed include surface defects, rut depth, cracking, potholes, patched areas, shoulder condition etc. An overall assessment of performance – serviceability of the road was also done to qualitatively rate the existing pavement and shoulder condition. The pavement condition has been recorded under the following sub-heads:             

Shoulder Composition / Condition / material Loss Riding Quality (Good / Fair / Poor / Very Poor) Pavement Condition (surface distress type & extent) Cracking (%) Ravelling (%) Potholes (%) Patching (%) Rut depth (mm) Pavement edge Drop (mm) Embankment Condition (Good / Fair / Poor) Road Side Drain (Non Existing / Partially Functional / Functional) Drainage condition

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Table 3.2 : Summary of Pavement Condition for Fatehabad to Firozabad Link Road From the above summary it has been conclude that 75.83% of link road is in excellent condition, 2.50%of link road is in good condition, 6.94%of link road is in fair condition, 2.22% of link road is in poor condition and 12.50% of road is in very poor condition

3.6.3 Inventory and Condition Survey of Bridges and Structures The inventory and condition surveys for existing structures in the project influence area have been carried out as per the parameters given in latest IRCSP: 35 “Guidelines for Inspection and Maintenance of Bridges”. Culverts a) Location and Type b) Span / Diameter, and no. of Spans / Pipes c) Total Width and Skew Angle d) Type / Material of Wing Walls, Substructures and Super Structures e) Hydraulic Condition at Inlet and Outlet f) Improvement Measures Required Bridges a) Location, Name of Water Course b) Span Arrangements and Material of Construction of Structural Components c) Width of Carriageway and Overall Width d) Flow Direction and Skew Angle e) Details of other Bridges on the Same Water Way f) Condition of the Various Components g) Improvements Measures Required Geometric aspects, including bridge widths and whether the existing structure can be economically incorporated into the new road geometry;     

Condition of each element of the structure viz. foundation, sub-structure, Expansion joint, bearings, super-structure, railings, drainage spouts, river protection works, returns and wearing course; Approach road conditions; Waterway conditions; The capability of the structure to meet the proposed design standards for traffic loading; Repair needs or the requirement of reconstruction of one element or the complete structure based on the present distress level.

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

Ease of maintenance and future maintenance costs

3.6.4.6 Material Investigations The Material Investigation for road construction has been carried out to identify the potential sources of construction materials and to assess their general availability, mechanical properties and quantities. This is one of the most important factors for stable, economic and successful implementation of the road program within the stipulated time for improvement work as well as for new carriageway / bypass the list of materials includes the following: a) Granular material for lower sub-base works. b) Crushed stone aggregates for upper sub-base, base, surfacing and cement concrete works. c) Sand for filter material and cement, concrete works, sub-base and filling material. d) Borrow material for embankment, sub-grade and filling. e) Manufactured material like cement, steel, bitumen, geo-textiles etc. for other related works. The Information on material sources has been carried out with the following basic objectives:    

Source location, indicating places, kilometerage, availability and the status whetherin operation or new source. Access to source, indicating the direction and nature of the access road i.e. left / right of project road, approximate lead distance from the gravity centre and type of access road. Ownership of land / quarries, either government or private. Probable uses indicating the likely use of materials at various stages of construction work i.e. fill materials, sub-grade, sub-base, base and wearing course and cross drainage structures.

3.7 Traffic Design 3.7.1.1 Equivalency Factors The need of expressing capacity in passenger car units has triggered off many studies for establishing appropriate passenger car equivalency (PCE) values for different types of vehicles. Notable among the studies carried out in India are the road user cost studies (RUCS) by CRRI and the MoSRT&H. It has been recognised that the PCE values vary under different traffic, roadway conditions and composition for any given type of vehicle. Equivalency Factor is a factor to convert the mixed flow of traffic in to single unit to express the capacity of road. The unit generally employed is the passenger car unit (PCU

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Table 3.3: Equivalency Factor

Free Flow Speed An important element of the speed – flow curves of the project roads is the free flow speed. It is the speed at which driver feel comfortable travelling under the physical, environmental and traffic control conditions on a non-congested section of a multi lane highway, - HCM Lane Width (m) Reduction in FFS(kmph) 3.6 0.0 3.5 1.0 3.4 2.1 3.3 3.1 3.2 5.6 3.1 8.1 3.0 10.6 Table 3.4 : Free Flow Speed

Calculation of Base Capacity (Base Cap) The base capacity (pcphpl) of an expressway facility is given by Base Capacity = 1700+10FFS; for FFS112 ---Eq(3) Since, the FFS is (120kmph)>112kmph, base capacity =240 0pcphpl Determination of Peak Capacity (Peak Cap) The peak capacity is given by, Peak Cap = Base Cap*PHF*N*fHV*fP Where, Peak Capacity = Peak capacity, vehicles per hour ( all lanes, one direction) PHF = Peak Hour Factor N = Number of lanes in one direction (3 for 6-lane and 4 for 8-lane) fHV = Adjustment factor for heavy vehicles fP = Adjustment factor for driver population

3.8 Engineering Design 3.8.1 Geometric Design of the Alignment The Preliminary Design has been carried out on the selected alignment so as to have RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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optimum Construction and Operation & maintenance cost and Vehicle Operation Cost; minimum Social Impacts and Social Costs and Environmental Impacts and Environmental Mitigation Costs Geometric Design Control The detailed design for geometric elements covers, but not limited to the following major aspects:  Horizontal alignment  Longitudinal profile  Cross-sectional elements  Junctions, intersections and Interchanges  Service road on either sides of carriageway

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Table 3.5 : Indicative Design Standards for Main Carriageway

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Table 3.6 : Geometric Design Standards for Interchange Elements Design Speed Design speed is the basic parameter, which determines the geometric features of the road. The proposed design speeds for different terrain categories as per “Guidelines for Expressway” are as follows

Table 3.7: Design Speed

Cross Sectional Elements Right of Way (ROW) As per Guidelines for Expressway the minimum right of way (ROW) for up to 8 lanes expressways is 90m for plain and rolling terrain. The minimum ROW of 110 m has been adopted for the proposed expressway in rural section (open areas i.e. green field section) and 60 m is proposed for link roads. The ROW at toll plaza locations, ROBs and flyovers/interchange sections may vary depending on their respective layout and requirement. A 2m wide utility corridor inside the boundary fencing has been taken into account within the proposed ROW width.

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Lane Width As per Guidelines for Expressway the width of a lane in Plain and Rolling terrains has been taken as 3.75 m. The kerb shyness of 0.5 m on the outer side (i.e., Embankment side) and 0.75 m shyness on median side has been provided. Paved Shoulder Paved shoulders shall be designed as an integral part of the pavement for the main carriageway. Width of these shoulders has been taken as 3 m. This will provide for better traffic operation conditions, lower maintenance and facility of directly using these as part of carriageway when the road is subsequently widened on these sides. Service Road Service roads are provided on either side throughout the stretch. Service road width is taken as 7.5 m. Sight Distance Safe stopping sight distance, both in the vertical and horizontal directions will apply in design. The sight distance values as per Guidelines of Expressway recommendations are as follows:

Table no 3.8-Safe Stopping Sight Distance

Horizontal Alignment Radii of Curve The horizontal curves on the project road are designed for a minimum radius as per Guidelines of Expressway manual. Adopting a maximum value of 7% for super elevation and 0.10 for side friction factor, the minimum radius for horizontal curves works out to be as follows as per MOSRT&H- Guidelines for Expressways.

Table no 3.9-Radius of Horizontal Curve

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Super – Elevation The super elevation at curves is arrived at as per the following equation: v2 = (e + f) *gR Where, v = Vehicle speed in m/sec. g = Acceleration due to gravity in meters/sec2 e = Super elevation ratio in meter per meter f = Coefficient of side friction between vehicle tyre and pavement (taken as 0.15) R = Radius in meters. The super elevation is calculated keeping in view the horizontal radii and gradient at curves at different locations.

Method for attaining super-elevation Dual – inner edge pivot of both carriageways at different chainage is used for attaining super-elevation. This method pivots the dual carriageway about the inner edge strings of both carriageways using different chainage, so that the central reservation levels are not changed

Figure 3.1: Method for attaining super-elevation

Transition Curves The rate of change of super elevation is being considered not steeper than 1 in 200 for roads in plain and rolling terrain and 1 in 150 for roads in Mountainous terrain. The following three formulae are used for calculating the transition lengths and the maximum value is being adopted for design:

Ls = 0.0215 V3/ CR a) Rate of change of super elevation or runoff. b) Three seconds time for manipulating the steering. The minimum lengths of transition curves for this criteria RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Where: R - Radius of curve in meters V - Vehicle speed in Km / hour Ls - Length of transition in meters C - Rate of change of acceleration. Vertical Alignment The vertical alignment of the carriageway is generally compatible with the guidelines given in the MOSRT&H Guidelines of Expressway. • At locations of grade break of 0.5%, vertical curves are being provided. • Desirably, there shall be no change in grade within a distance of 150m • The length of vertical curve will not be less than 0.6V (kmph) • Number of PVI will not be more than 4 in one km. Vertical Curves Vertical curves are designed to provide for visibility at least corresponding to the safe stopping sight distance. More liberal values are adopted wherever this is economically feasible. Valley curves are designed for headlight sight distance. Maximum vertical gradient is limited to 3% and 4% in plain and rolling sections and up to 5% in mountainous sections. Vertical Clearance The vertical clearances is being adopted as per MOSRT&H Guidelines for Expressways and Pocket Book for Highway Engineers (Second Revision) published by the IRC, New Delhi in 2002. • Vertical clearance at underpasses Rural areas : 5.0 m minimum Urban Areas : 5.5 m minimum • Vertical clearance for railway traction (Broad Gauge) Electric traction : 6.625 m minimum It is however mentioned here that the vertical clearance shall be got confirmed from Railways / other authorities as required. 3.9 Cross Fall Each carriageway will have unidirectional cross fall. The cross-fall for the flexible pavement and paved shoulders is 2.5%. For earthen shoulders, the corresponding value is 3%.

3.10 Roadway Width at Cross-Drainage Structure Culverts The culverts are built to the full formation width of the road and have been designed using latest IRC: SP 13 and IRC: 112.

Design Life By considering stage construction, the design life for bituminous layers has been considered as 10 years and for granular layers (GSB and WMM) 30 years or Operational RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Period (higher has been considered) for the flexible pavement design. For rigid pavement a design life of 30 years has been considered

Rigid Pavement Design Design of Concrete Slab Once the parameters are decided, actual stresses developed in the concrete slab due to design wheel load is computed by the Westergaard’s Equation modified by Teller and Sutherland. The maximum stress occurs in the corner and the minimum in the interior. The edge load condition gives an intermediate value. Temperature stresses at the edge are calculated by using Bradbury’s formula. The temperature stresses in the corner region is negligible as the corners are relatively free to wrap and may be ignored. The design wheel load stress and the temperature stress at the edge are then added up together and this summation shall be less than 28 days flexural strength of concrete for the assumed thickness to be adequate from design point of view.

Design of Joints Once the concrete slab thickness is designed based on particular spacing and location of joints, the remaining job is the design of dowel bars and tie bars with the provision of adequate sealants. Dowel Bars The design of dowel bar at joints is carried out on the basis of its load transfer capacity. It is recommended that 40% of wheel load can be transferred through dowel bar system. It is observed that failure of dowel bar occurs due to the crushing of concrete below the dowel bar and hence bearing stress shall be considered for its design. Generally 500 mm long 32 mm diameter M.S. bar at a spacing of 250 - 300 mm is used as dowel bar for concrete slab of 200 -350 mm thick. No dowel bar is required for slab thickness less than 150 mm. However separate calculation has been made for present situation for dowel bar design. Tie Bar Tie bars are provided to prevent the adjoining slabs from separating. Longitudinal joints are provided with tie bars. It does not increase the structural capacity of the slab and are not designed as load transferred devices

Guidelines for Expressways Design Approach The hydrological & hydraulic design of bridges is an important aspect to determine the minimum required waterway; design highest flood level (HFL) and minimum scour levels RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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of piers & abutments of the bridges proposed on the new alignments. The various design standards (latest) which have been adopted for the hydrological & hydraulic design of bridges are g i v e n b e low. Design Parameters Parameters for design discharge: Flood Estimation Reports for Upper Indo-Ganga Plains (subzone – 1e) and Middle Ganga Plains (subzone – 1f) have been used for the determination of design discharges of river bridges whose length is more than 30m, except bridges on river Ganga & on river Yamuna. Area of catchment, length of longest stream & parameters for determining equivalent slope has been obtained from topographical sheets of Survey of India (SOI). All other parameters, such as, equations for obtaining synthetic unit hydrograph, 100-year 24-hr point rainfall, conversion factor for 100-year 24-hr point rainfall to design storm duration, areal reduction factor for finding areal rainfall from point rainfall, time distribution of areal rainfall, loss rate, base flow, etc. are obtained from flood estimation. River/stream bridges whose length is less than or equal to 30m, Area-Velocity method have been adopted. Also, the area-velocity method has been used for the bridges on tributary & minor canals. Bridge on River Yamuna: Recorded daily discharge and water level at Poiyaghat gauge discharge station, which is 101km upstream of proposed Yamuna Bridge is obtained from the CWC. Also, the HFL of Yamuna at Etawah, which is 116km downstream of concerned bridge, is available from CWC publication. Bridge on River Ganga: Bank-full discharge at Ankinghat gauge-discharge station, which is 1.3km upstream of proposed Ganga Bridge is available from an article named Understanding confluence dynamics in the alluvial GangaRamganga valley, India: An integrated approach using geomorphology and hydrology" by Nanigopal Roy and Rajiv Sinha, Engineering Geosciences Group, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur,. The article is available at "http://home.iitk.ac.in/~rsinha/PDF's/2007_confluence_geomorphology.pdf”. Also, the HFLs of Ganga River at Ankinghat and at Kanpur, which is 64.7km downstream of concerned bridge, is available from CWC publication. Return Period: 100 years return period has been adopted to calculate the discharge as per Manual of Specifications and Standards for Six Laning. Bed Slope: The energy slope has been taken equal to the bed slope, measured over a reasonably long reach. Bed slope of the river has been obtained from topo survey data. The longitudinal section of the river has been generated using MX-Road / Civil 3D software

3.10.2 Drainage and Protection Works The drainage requirements for the project road and adjoining areas are assessed through the DTM prepared from topographical survey data. Pavement internal and external drainage is ensured by providing drainage layer and camber respectively. Longitudinal slopes in roadside ditches and central drain are generally equal to generate self cleaning velocity at the time of storm. Small catchment analysis with project specific unit hydrograph is undertaken for the hydraulic design of the drain channel.

3.10.3 Structural Design a) Structural width for bridges / flyovers / road over rail bridges The overall deck width for all bridges, underpasses & ROBs has been kept same RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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19.75 m (including 0.5m crash barrier on either side) in each direction of traffic. Total width of Grade separator considered 27.25m, including 2 lane ramp merging at structure location. b) Median width A median width of 3.0 m is maintained between two outer faces of RCC crash barriers. 3.10.3.3 Specification for Material Concrete: The grades of concrete are either equal to or higher than those prescribed in latest IRC: 112. a) Steel: This conforms to the provisions given in IS: 1786, IS: 432 (Part I). Reinforcement steel:  High yield strength deformed bars conforming to Fe 500 / TMT.  Mild steel not to be used.  Pre-stressing steel b) Bearings Elastomeric bearing has been provided as per latest IRC: 83 (Part II) and shall conform to clause 2005 of MoSRT&H specification for Road and Bridge Works. c) Expansion Joints Elastomeric strip seal type expansion joints are provided on all the bridges and ROBs as per Clause No. 2607 of MoSRT&H specification for road and bridge works and interim specifications for expansion joints issued subsequently vide MoSRT&H 3.10.3.4 Loads and Forces to be considered in Design _ Vertical Loads a) Dead Loads Following unit weights are assumed in the design as per latest IRC Codes. Pre-stressed Concrete : 2.5 t / m3 Reinforced Concrete : 2.5 t / m3 Plain Cement Concrete : 2.2 t / m3 Structural steel : 7.85 t / m3 Dry Density of Backfill Soil : 2.0 t / m3 Saturated Density of Backfill Soil : 2.0 t / m3 b) Superimposed Dead Loads Wearing coat: 65mm thick with 40mm Bituminous concrete overlaid + 25mm thick bituminous mastic layer. c) Live Loads Carriageway live loads: The following load combinations are considered in the analysis and whichever produces the worst effect is considered. One / Two / Three / Four lanes of IRC Class A One lane of IRC Class 70R (tracked) with two lane of IRC Class A One lane of IRC Class 70R (wheeled) with two lane of IRC Class A d) Horizontal Forces a) Longitudinal Forces due to live load Following effects are considered in the design _ Braking forces as per the provision of latest IRC: 6 _ Distribution of longitudinal forces due to horizontal deformation of bearings/frictional resistance offered to the movement of free bearings as per RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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latest IRC: 6 b) Horizontal forces due to water currents The portion of bridge, which may be submerged in running water, is designed to sustain safely the horizontal pressure due to force of water current as per the stipulations of latest IRC:6 c) Earth load i. Earth forces are calculated as per the provisions of latest IRC:6 assuming the following soil properties: Type of soil assumed for backfilling : As per latest IRC: 112 Angle of Internal Friction : Φ= 30O Angle of Wall Friction : δ = 20O Coefficient of Friction ‘a‘at base : tan (2/3 Φ), while Φ is the angle of internal friction of substrata immediately under the foundations. ii. Live load surcharge are considered as per the provisions of latest IRC: 6. d) Centrifugal forces Centrifugal forces are calculated as per the provisions of latest IRC: 6 for a design speed applicable at horizontal curves. e) Wind effect Structures are designed for wind effects as stipulated in latest IRC: 6. the wind forces are considered in the following two ways and the one producing the worst effect shall govern design. f) Seismic Effect The road stretch is located in Seismic Zone-III as per the revised seismic map of India (IS: 1893-2002). The seismic forces will be coefficient method as suggested by the modified clause for the interim measures for seismic provisions in latest IRC: 6.

e) Other Forces / Effects Temperature effects: The bridge structure / components i.e. bearings and expansion joints, are designed for a temperature variation of + 250 C considering extreme climate. The superstructures are also designed for effects of distribution of temperature across the deck depth as given in latest IRC: 6, suitably modified for the surfacing thickness. Temperature effects considered are as follows:  Effects of non-linear profile of temperature combined with 50% live load and full value of ‘E’ is considered.  Effects of global rise and fall of temperature combined with 100% live load and full value of ‘E’ is considered. Differential shrinkage effects: A minimum reinforcement of 0.2% of cross sectional area in the longitudinal direction of the cast-in-situ slab is provided to cater for differential shrinkage stresses in superstructures with cast-in-situ slab over precast girders as per Clause 605.2 of latest IRC: 22.

3.11 Environmental and Social Screeing 3.11.1 Environmental Screening An Environmental screening study has been undertaken. The preliminary environmental study focused on identifying the key areas, the need for assessment of key impacts, issues, RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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including information necessary for proposed development. The following issues were identified: • The important environmental issues and concerns; • The significant effects and factors; and • The appropriate content and boundaries of an EIA study. The programme included: • Field surveys; • Consultation exercises; identifying existing relevant baseline data; • Identifying the scope of baseline surveys required; • Identifying key issues to be addressed within the EIA; and • Providing a technical brief for the EIA. 3.11.2 Secondary data collection Secondary data collection including relevant maps for all the corridors was made available from various government agencies regarding: • Physical resources • Flora and fauna • Critical natural habitats • Built-up areas • Water bodies • Other critical environmental indicators • Policy, legal and administrative framework etc 3.11.3 Social Screening The overall objective of the study is to assess the likely impact on persons/families in the process of land acquisition needed in the process of construction of project road. Social assessment would be conducted to broadly assess the extent of impacts due to the project on persons and properties within the corridor of impact. Both desk research and identification of major settlements within project area through field survey are conducted. Social assessment study also aims at identifying the project affected people (PAP) and project affected families (PAF) analysing their socio-economic status, assessing losses due to project implementation

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Chapter – 4 4.1 Traffic Surveys To achieve the desired objectives, the following surveys were conducted:  

Classified traffic volume count at nine (9) locations Origin-destination surveys for passengers and commodity movements at seven(7) locations for one-day (24hrs. each direction)

Traffic survey locations for carrying out these surveys were selected after a site reconnaissance considering following factors:   

The locations should cover all the roads from where the traffic is likely to divert to the proposed expressway. The station should be outside urban influence and The station is located in a reasonably level terrain with good visibility.

The locations were finalized after the reconnaissance survey and are presented in Figure 5.1. The survey schedule is given Table 5.1. Location

Start Date

End Date

Classified Traffic Volume Count

Duration (days)

NH-2 near Dabrai between Firozabad &Shikohabad

22/02/2013 28/02/2013

7

NH-2 near NagalDalap between Etawah&Auryia

23/02/2013 01/03/2013

7

NH-91 near Araul

04/03/2013 10/03/2013

7

NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km from NH-25A

06/03/2013 12/03/2013

7

SH-62 near Fatehabad

28/02/2013 02/03/2013

3

MDR Firozabad – Fatehabad Road near Yamuna

01/03/2013 03/03/2013

3

SH-21 near Tirwaganj

05/03/2013 07/03/2013

3

SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 km from Malihabad) SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge

08/03/2013 10/03/2013

3

10/03/2013 12/03/2013

3

Origin–Destination NH-2 near Dabrai between Firozabad &Shikohabad

1

NH-2 near NagalDalap between Etawah&Auryia

1

NH-91 near Araul

1

NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km from NH-25A

1

SH-62 near Fatehabad

1

SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 km from Malihabad)

1

SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge (6 Km from Mohan)

1

Table 4.1: Traffic Survey Schedule RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Figure 4.1: Traffic Survey Location Map RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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4.2 Classified Traffic Voloume Counts The classified volume count survey was carried out at 9 locations, each location being selected near the point from where the possibility of diversion of traffic on the proposed alignment of the expressway was observed. For these major roads intersecting the proposed project road were surveyed continuously for seven or three consecutive days for 24 hours on each day. For carrying out the counts, the vehicles were grouped under different categories as indicated in Table 5.2. The identified classified traffic volume count locations for 7 days count are given below: 1) NH-2 near Dabrai between Firozabad & Shikohabad 2) NH-2 near Nagal Dalap between Etawah & Auryia 3) NH-91 near Araul 4) NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km from NH-25A The identified classified traffic volume count locations for 3 days count are given below: 1) SH-62 near Fatehabad 2) MDR Firozabad – Fatehabad Road near Yamuna 3) SH-21 near Tirwaganj 4) SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 km from Malihabad) 5) SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge (6 Km from Mohan) For the purpose of counts, a day was divided into two shifts of 12 hours each and different groups of enumerators with a supervisor were assigned for each shift. The count data was recorded at 15- minute intervals for each vehicle group for each direction of travel separately. Trained enumerators were deployed for counting and recording by making tally marks in the five-dash system. Hourly totals were made at the end of the shift. These locations are characterized by centers of heavy economic activities, population and are away from the influence of city areas in order to avoid the local traffic. Also these locations were selected on the basis of possible divertible traffic on proposed expressway so as to capture the entire relevant traffic movement.

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4.3 Origin-Destination Survey The origin-destination survey was carried out with the primary objective of studying the travel pattern of goods and passenger traffic along the study corridor. The results will also be useful for assessing the divertible traffic on to the proposed road, identifying the influence area of the project road, estimating the growth rates of traffic, planning for tolling strategies and identification of the toll plazas on the project road. The O-D survey was carried out for one day. Roadside interview method was adopted for the survey. The vehicles were stopped on random sample basis with the help of police, and trained information pertaining to origin and destination of the trip, trip length, frequency, return trip commodity types, loading pattern and trip purpose as applicable for various vehicle types were recorded. This trip frequency will be used in the estimation of Tollable vehicles. The origin – destination survey locations was carried out at the following locations; 1) NH-2 near Dabrai between Firozabad & Shikohabad 2) NH-2 near Nagal Dalap between Etawah & Auryia 3) NH-91 near Araul 4) NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km from NH-25A 5) SH-62 near Fatehabad 6) SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 km from Malihabad) 7) SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge (6 Km from Mohan) 4.4 Analysis of survey data 4.4.1 Analysis of Traffic Volume Count The various vehicle types having different sizes and characteristics were converted into a standard unit called passenger car unit. Passenger Car equivalents for various vehicles are adopted based on recommendations of Indian Road Congress prescribed in “Guidelines for Capacity of Roads in Rural areas”, IRC-64-1990. The passenger car unit values (PCU) which were adopted are presented in Table 5.2. The information derived from the surveys was utilized to obtain traffic intensity, traffic composition, hourly variation and daily variations and peak hour characteristics.

\

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Fast Vehicles Vehicle Group

Slow Vehicles PCU Factor

Vehicle Group

PCU Factor

Car, Jeep, Van (Passenger Vehicles)

1

Bicycle

0.5

Auto Rickshaw < 3

1

Cycle Rickshaw

2

Auto Rickshaw > 3, 6 Axle)

4.5

Agriculture Tractor

1.5

Agriculture Tractor & Trailer (Single Axle)

4.5

Agriculture Tractor & Trailer (> Single Axle)

4.5

Table 4.2: PCU Factors adopted for the study (IRC 64-1990)

4.4.2 Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) has been worked out in terms of vehicles per day (VPD) and Passenger Car Units (PCU) by averaging 7 days volume counts. The following Table 5.3 gives the average daily traffic at the 6 survey locations based on average of 7 days traffic flow. RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Vehicle Type

Near Dabrai_ NH2

Near Nidha san _NH 24

Near Nangal Near Dalap_NH Araul_ 2 NH-91

Near Fateha bad SH-62

Tollable Traffic ADT 1288 7241 15 212 312 581

Car / Jeep /Taxi Mini Bus Standard Bus (Govt.)

5414 130 281

5932 139 363

Standard Bus (Pvt.) LCV (Pass) LCV (Goods) 2-Axle 3-Axle 4 to 6 axle Others Total Tollable (Nos.)

357 284 920 488 1586 755 1559 2423 3031 3651 1592 2067 30 33 14900 16135

25 42 771 732 1063 282 7 4537

Total Tollable (PCUs)

32306 37569

10216

Firozab ad – Fateha bad Road_ MDR

Near Tirwa ganj _SH21

Near Amar pali Co tages_ SH-25

Near Maharajg anj Bridge_S H-40

1472 139 242

343 9 6

823 5 6

3563 308 183

991 10 12

147 367 1710 892 1407 734 15 13306

57 430 187 137 122 67 46 2899

39 147 69 334 85 6 6 1044

14 144 48 97 182 42 7 1368

91 761 239 697 474 163 14 6493

16 130 613 344 505 27 2 2650

23104

4720

2118

2226

10636

4879

Non – Tollable Traffic Vehicle Type Two Wheeler

9566

ADT 3784

4724

5458

1589

2467

2605

5295

3734

3 Wheeler Tractor Tractor with Trailer

829 410 114

461 380 59

427 373 48

2445 136 201

102 341 33

109 45 112

189 25 175

159 98 22

627 99 25

Cycle Cycle Rickshaw Animal cart Hand Cart Others Slow Moving Vehicle Toll Exempted Vehicles

561 12 23 0 0

1642 12 14 5 0

957 8 15 2 6

2789 91 38 7 2

728 8 28 0 2

823 3 0 0 0

1772 10 9 0 0

848 29 3 39 2

1172 14 5 1 23

0

0

0

36

0

0

0

0

0

Total NonTollable (Nos.)

6673

8031

3425

15311

5026

3559

4785

6495

5700

Total NonTollable (PCUs)

4762

4970

2594

10216

3204

2332

3277

3672

3425

21573 24166 7962 28617 37068 42538 12810 33320

7925 7924

4603 4449

6153 5502

12988 14307

8350 8304

Grand Total (Nos.) Grand Total (PCUs)

Table 4.3: Average Daily Traffic at Various Traffic Locations RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Maximum ADT was observed at NH 2 near Nangal Dalap (42538 PCU), followed by traffic on NH-2 near Dabrai (37068). However, traffic observed on Firozabad – Fatehabad Road_MDR is the minimum (4449 PCu). 4.4.3 Daily Variation of Traffic Daily variation of traffic during different days of week at 9 traffic survey locations in terms of PCUs were analyzed. The daily variation of traffic at various count station shown in Figure 5.2 indicates that the traffic is more or less uniform throughout the week.

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RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Fig: 4.2 Daily variation of Traffic at Various Count station

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4.4.4 Peak Hour Traffic The peak hour traffic at classified locations is presented in Table 5.4. The peak hour volume varies from 377 PCUs at Fatehabad Firozabad road to 2100 PCUs at Nagal Dalap on NH-2. The hourly variation of traffic at various count stations is shown in Figure 5.3. Location NH-2 near Dabrai between Firozabad & Shikohabad NH-2 near Nagal Dalap between Etawah & Auryia NH-91 near Araul NH-24 near Nidhasan about 2.0km from NH-25A SH-62 near Fatehabad MDR Firozabad – Fatehabad Road near Yamuna SH-21 near Tirwaganj SH-25 near Amarpali Cottages(3 km from Malihabad) SH-40 near Maharajganj Bridge

Peak Hour Volume (PCUs) 1976

Peak Hour percentage 5.33

Time 22:00-23:00

2100

4.94

20:00-21:00

697 1875

5.43 5.63

9:00-10:00 17:00-18:00

598 377

7.55 8.53

14:00-15:00 17:00-18:00

413 967

7.53 6.77

11:00-12:00 10:00-11:00

569

6.85

10:00-11:00

Table(4.4)- Peak hour on Various Count Stations The peak hour factor for assessment of expressway capacity has been taken as an average of NH-2 and NH-91 which comes out to be 5.2%.

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RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Figure 4.3: Hourly Variation of Traffic at Various Count Stations

4.4.5 Composition of Traffic The composition of tollable and total traffic at count locations is presented in Table 5.5, Table 5.6 and Figure 5.4. The share of cars/jeeps varies between 7% and 26% while 3-wheelers vary from 1% to 8%, whereas trucks constitute about 9% to 35% of traffic. The buses constitute 0% to 6% of traffic. Passenger Vehicles

Goods Vehicles

Location Car

2W

3W

Near Dabrai_NH2

24%

22%

Near Nangal Dalap_NH2

24%

Near Araul_NH-91 Near Nidhasan_NH-24

Slow Moving Vehicle

Tractor s

3%

2%

LCV

4%

Buse s 4%

12%

Truc k 29%

22%

2%

3%

5%

35%

7%

2%

15%

21%

6%

5%

10%

25%

13%

5%

24%

35%

9%

3%

7%

10%

11%

1%

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Near Fatehabad_SH-62

17%

49%

1%

6%

7%

5%

10%

5%

Firozabad – Fatehabad Road_MDR

7%

55%

2%

1%

5%

9%

18%

3%

Near Tirwaganj_SH-21

13%

43%

3%

0%

3%

5%

30%

3%

Near Amarpali Cottages_SH-25

26%

42%

1%

5%

8%

10%

7%

1%

Near Maharajganj Bridge_SH-40

11%

46%

8%

0%

9%

10%

15%

1%

Table (4.5) -Total Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations

Location

Passenger Vehicles Car

Mini Bus 1% 1%

Goods Vehicles

Buse LCV s 4% 11% 4% 5%

2 Axle 11% 16%

3 Axle

Other s

Near Dabrai_NH2 Near Nangal Dalap_NH2 Near Araul_NH-91

35% 35%

LCV Pass. 6% 3%

21% 23%

4-6 Axle 11% 13%

0% 0%

28%

1%

0%

8%

17%

16%

24%

6%

0%

Near Nidhasan_NH24 Near Fatehabad_SH62 Firozabad – Fatehabad Road_MDR Near Tirwaganj_SH21 Near Amarpali Cottages_SH-25 Near Maharajganj Bridge_SH-40

53%

3%

2%

6%

13%

7%

11%

5%

0%

50%

15%

5%

11%

6%

5%

4%

2%

2%

32%

14%

1%

5%

6%

32%

8%

1%

1%

59%

11%

0%

2%

4%

7%

13%

3%

1%

54%

12%

5%

5%

4%

11%

7%

2%

0%

37%

5%

1%

1%

23%

13%

19%

1%

0%

Table 4.6: Tollable Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations

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Figure 4.4 : Tollable Traffic Composition at Various Count Stations 4.4.6 Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) Seasonal variation factors by vehicle types are required to account for variations in the pattern of traffic volume on the project road sections over different seasons of the year. These factors are worked out based on the month wise fuel sales data collected along the roads where the survey was carried out. The vehicle wise seasonal correction factors adopted are presented in Table 5.7.

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Mode

Near Dabr ai

Near Nangal Dalap_ NH2

Near Araul _NH91

Near Nidhas an_NH -24

Near Fatehab ad_SH62

Near Tirwag anj_S H-21

Near Amarpali Cottages_ SH-25

Near Maharajgan j Bridge_SH40

0.95

Firozab ad – Fatehab ad Road_M DR 0.95

Perol Drive n

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

Diesel Drive n

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

Bus

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

Table 4.7: Seasonal Correction Factors

The seasonality factors presented above are used to convert Average Daily Traffic to Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) for various homogeneous sections of the project road. Section wise AADT thus obtained is shown in Table 5.8 Vehicle Type

Ne ar Da brai _N H2

Near Nangal Dalap_ NH2

Near Araul_ NH-91

Near Nidhasan _NH24

Near Fatehaba d_SH62

Firozab ad – Fateha bad Road_ MDR

Near Tirwagan j_SH21

Near Near Amarpal Mahara i jganj Cottages Bridge_ _SHSH-40 25

Tollable Traffic AADT Car / Jeep / Taxi

5143

5813

1172

6589

1340

312

749

3242

444

Mini Bus

130

139

15

212

139

9

5

308

6

Standard Bus (Govt.)

281

363

312

581

242

6

6

308

7

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Standard Bus (Pvt.)

357

284

25

147

57

39

14

91

7

LCV (Pass)

911

522

39

341

400

137

134

708

65

LCV (Goods)

1570

808

717

1590

174

64

45

222

272

2-Axle

1543

2593

681

830

127

311

90

648

146

3-Axle

3001

3907

989

1309

113

79

169

441

239

4 to 6 axle

1576

2212

262

683

62

6

39

152

8

Others

30

35

7

14

43

6

7

13

2

Total Tollable (Nos.)

14542

16676

4219

12296

2697

969

125

6008

1196

Table 4.8: Section wise AADT

4.5. Estimation of Traffic growth rates by Elasticity Method Investment priorities are governed by traffic demand, assessed benefits and cost of the project. Demand plays the important role, which governs which type of facility / infrastructure to be created. This in turn determines likely benefits and costs to develop the same. A highway project of this nature calls for significant investment. Prediction of traffic demand becomes an important task and has to be carried out as accurately as possible. Accurate estimation of traffic has direct bearing on the viability of the project. Recognizing this, efforts need to be made to carefully assess all the parameters that help in predicting the traffic demand in future, which necessitates realistic estimation of traffic growth rates. Traffic growth on a road facility is generally estimated on the basis of historical trends. In the present case, traffic growth rates are estimated using elasticity method as per IRC-108-1996. Demand changes are usually because of shifts in the pattern of economic activities in the surrounding regions. Hence, future traffic estimation necessitates a preview, however imprecise, of the probable pattern of future growth of the economy. In the absence of historical traffic census data on the project road, the future traffic has been forecasted using transport demand elasticity approach by regression of registered vehicles of Delhi and Uttar Pradesh with respect to socio-economic parameters viz., population, PCI, NSDP and GDP as explained below. 4.6

Traffic Forcasting Methodology

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The exercise of traffic growth rate estimation has been carried out by us using the elasticity approach. The elasticity method relates traffic growth to changes in the related economic parameters. According to IRC-108, 1996, elasticity based econometric model for highway projects could be derived in the following form: Log e (P) = A0 + A1 Log e (EI) Where: P = Traffic volume (of any vehicle type) EI = Economic Indicator (GDP/NSDP/Population/PCI) A0 = Regression constant; A1 = Regression co-efficient (Elasticity Index) The main steps followed are:    

Defining the Project Influence Area from OD analysis of travel pattern Estimating the past elasticity of traffic growth from time series of registered vehicles of influencing states Assessment of future elasticity values for major vehicle groups, namely, cars, buses and trucks Study of past performance and assessment of prospective growth rates of state economies of influence area

The growth rates are found using the formulae Eqn (a) & (b). For Passenger vehicles, G=Σ[(R*E*I)UP]……………….Eqn. (a) Where, Ri = Growth in PCI and Population index of Delhi and Uttar Pradesh E = Elasticity Value For commercial vehicles, G=Σ [(R*E*I) UP, (R*E*I) DL, (R*E*I) RoI]……………...Eqn. (b) Where, R = Economic index (NSDP) E = Elasticity Value I = Influence factor 4.7.

Project influence area

A study of the socio-economic profiles of the regions comprising the project influence area (PIA) provides an overview of the factors likely to influence the pattern of economic development, and hence the flows and volumes of traffic on the proposed highway. The details include population, per-capita Income, NSDP, GDP and targeted growth rates of the RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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economy. The profiles help to generate basic inputs for the estimation of future growth in transport demand on the basis of past scenarios, prospective changes in transport demand elasticity and economic growth rates. From OD survey analysis along project road, share within Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and Rest of India has been considered as shown in the table below in estimating the growth rates. Vehicle Type Goods Vehicles

Uttar Pradesh 60%

Delhi 12%

Rest of India 28%

4.8 Growth of Registered Vehicles in Project Influence area In order to analyze the vehicle growth in the state, the vehicle registration data of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and India have been collected. The Compounded Average Growth Rate (%) of different vehicle types is shown in Table 5.10 to 5.12 Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 CAGR

Car 633855 757019 777682 864465 944825 1071008 1208699 11.36

2w 5652044 6083655 7138789 7737237 8521198 9493677 10563850 10.99

Bus 121362 136909 139812 133128 150732 170570 199832 8.67

Truck (UP) 165123 184428 193465 215825 240433 268617 307058 10.89

Table 4.9: Growth of Vehicle Registration in Uttar Pradesh

Year

Car

2w

Bus

Truck (UP)

2004-05

1445149

2844004

24235

140982

2005-06

1487334

3062536

43500

141996

2006-07

1614830

3299838

46581

149972

2007-08

1760399

3578199

52763

160726

2008-09

1899442

3797943

55148

175250

2009-10

2058920

4055229

58047

193205

2010-11

2231281

4342403

61471

209370

CAGR

7.60

7.26

14.89

7.17

Source: www.delhi.gov.in Table 4.10: Growth of Vehicle Registration in Delhi

Year

Trucks (All India)

2004-05

4031000

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2005-06

4436000

2006-07

5119000

2007-08

5601000

2008-09

6041000

2009-10

6432000

2010-11

7064000

GR

9.80%

Source: MORTH Table 4.11: Growth of Vehicle Registration of Trucks (All India)

4.9.

Economic Growth of the States and All=India

The past performance of the economic indicators for the project influence area (PIA) was also collected for the same period (2004-05), with the objective of establishing elasticity of travel demand to the different economic indicators. The economic indicators considered for the analysis include:   

Net State Domestic Product and Net National Domestic Product Per Capita Income (PCI) Population

Table 5.11 to 5.14 gives the growth of Economic indicators for Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and Rest of India. Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 CAGR

Population 178400772 181862402 185334597 188807395 192319735 195844021 199347512 1.87%

PCI (Rs.) 12950 13445 14241 14875 15713 16374 17349 4.99%

NSDP (Billion) 2310.29 2445.14 2639.35 2808.51 3021.92 3206.75 3458.48 6.96%

Table 5.12: Growth in Economic Indices of Uttar Pradesh State (at 2004-05 Prices) Year

NSDP (Rs lacs)

Population

PCI (Rs)

2004-05

9471686

14828000

63877

2005-06

10447341

15113000

69128

2006-07

11744414

15404000

76243

2007-08

13068304

15699000

83243

2008-09

14696123

16001000

91845

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2009-10

16316079

16308000

100050

2010-11

18097372

16622000

108876

2011-12

20165273

16941000

119032

CAGR

11.40%

1.92%

9.30%

Table 4.13: Growth in Economic Indices of Delhi at 2004-05 Prices

Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

GDP (Billion Rs.) 29714.54 32530.73 35643.64 38966.36

2008-09

41586.76

2009-10

45076.37

2010-11

48859.54

GR

8.64%

Table 4.14: Growth in Economic Indices of All India at 2004-05 Prices

4.10.

Forcasted Traffic Total

Normal Traffic: The normal traffic is the traffic at present which is likely plying on the proposed project road. Diverted Traffic: The diverted traffic is the traffic that may divert to the alternative route when toll is imposed on the project road due to resultant savings in the generalized cost. Development Traffic: Generated traffic is the traffic that may be generated due industrial developments coming up along or in the close vicinity of the project road. Generated/Induced Traffic: This traffic is likely to come on to the expressway as a result of new facility being provided. Total Traffic: The total traffic including diverted traffic, development traffic and generated traffic, if any. Diverted Traffic Diverted traffic has been worked out for the traffic moving between different sections of the project road. There are two existing alternative routes for the traffic moving between Link 1-2 other than Project Road. These routes are either via NH-2, NH-91 & SH-40 or via NH-2 & NH-25. RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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A) Alternative route for the Traffic Moving Between Link 1 and Link 9:

Figure 4.5: Alternative Routes for Link 1- 9

Alternative route Via NH-2 + NH-91 + SH-40: Traffic Coming from Agra or beyond Agra and destined to Lucknow, the combination of NH-2, NH-91 & SH-40 as acts as Alternative Road against the proposed Expressway. Existing Route NH-2 Link Link 1 to Link 9

Alternative Route-1 Length (km) Lane Configuration 52.00 6L 2L Project Route Length Lane (km) Configuration 269.86 6L

Condition

Type of Road

Excellent Good

NH NH & SH

Condition

Type of Road

Excellent

Expressway

Table 4.15. Details of Alternate Road via NH-2, NH-91 & SH-40 and Project Road (Expressway)

Vehicle Type Cars Pvt Bus LCV 2-Axle Trucks 3-Axle Trucks MAV

(% Diversion to Project Road) in the Base Year (2013-14) 73.74 91.21 75.16 74.65 64.39 72.43

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Table 4.16. Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Alternate Road

B) Alternative Route Between Link 1 and Other Interchanges: Alternate Routes between Link 1 and Other Interchanges: For the traffic moving from Agra or beyond Agra several routes are serve as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially shown in Figure 5.2 to Figure 5.7.

Figure 4.6: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 7

Figure 4.7: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 6

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Figure 4.8: Alternative Routes for Link 1- 5

Figure 4.9: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 4

Figure 4.10: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 3 RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Figure 4.11: Alternative Routes for Link 1 – 2

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Table 4.17: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road

Table 4.18: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

C) Alternative Route Between Link 3 and Other Interchanges: Vehicles coming from/or beyond Link 3 and destined to other Interchange points may prefer several routes as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially shown in Figure 5.12 to Figure 5.13.

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Figure 5.12: Alternative Routes for Link 3 – 7

Figure 5.13: Alternative Routes for Link 3 – 9

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Table 4.19: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road

Table 4.20: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

D) Alternative Route Between Link 4 and Other Interchanges: Vehicles coming from/or beyond Link 4 and destined to other Interchange points may prefer several routes as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially shown in Figure 5.14 to Figure 5.15.

Figure 5.14: Alternative Routes for Link 4 – 7

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Figure 5.15: Alternative Routes for Link 4 – 9

Table 4.21: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road

Table 4.22: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

E) Alternative Route Between Link 5 and Other Interchanges: Vehicles coming from/or beyond Link 5 and destined to other Interchange points may prefer several routes as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially shown in Figure 5.16 to Figure 5.18.

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Figure 5.16: Alternative Routes for Link 5 – 6

Figure 5.17: Alternative Routes between Link 5 – 7

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Table 4.23: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road

Table 4.24: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

F) Alternative Route Between Link 5 and Other Interchanges: Vehicles coming from/or beyond Link 7 and destined to other Interchange points may prefer several routes as alternate routes to the project road as is pictorially shown in Figure 5.19

Figure 5.18: Alternative Routes for Link 7 – 9

Table 4.25: Details of Existing Routes and Project Road RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Table 4.26: Percentage of Traffic Diversion from Existing Routes to Project Road (Expressway)

Traffic Diversion Methdology Cost ratio diversion curves have been used for estimating the diverted traffic from/to the project road. In this approach, traffic likely to be diverted from project road to alternate route is estimated using diversion curves, which computes the ratio of perceived costs on the competitive/alternative facilities. According to the model, the vehicle will shift if the perceived cost on the alternative road is lower in comparison to project road. The rate of diversion is calculated using the diversion curve/equations, which is similar to the Logit curve. These equations are presented in Table 5.19. The diversion curves for various vehicle types are shown in Figure 5.20.

Figure 5.19: Diversion Curves RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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Table 4.27: Diversion Curve Equation

For calculating the cost ratio the generalized cost is considered on the project road (NH) and alternative road. The generalized cost consists of three components vehicle operating cost (VOC), value of time (VOT) and toll cost. Vehicle operating cost is calculated based on the observed speed, traffic, road characteristics using IRC-SP-30. From the observed speed travel times are calculated and VOT thereby. Toll cost is calculated using per km toll rates. The potential divertible traffic is calculated using OD matrix for each vehicle type. Using the above methodology the diverted traffic that may divert to alternative route from the project road when the toll is imposed on the proposed road are calculated and presented in Table 4.28.

Table 4.28: Final Diverted Traffic at Exit of Each Toll Plaza / Toll Booth

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Chapter 5 Cost Estimates

5.1 GENERAL The cost estimates for the project are extremely important as its entire viability and implementation depends on the project cost. Therefore, cost estimates and rate analysis of the items have been carried out with due care. The project cost estimates have been prepared considering various items of works associated with the identified proposals. 5.2 METHODOLOGY Estimation of Preliminary cost, a primary pre-requisite for Economic and Financial evaluation, has been carried out. The process involved in the preliminary cost estimation has been described under the following sections. Basic rates The basic rates for each construction items were analyzed on the basis of Uttar Pradesh PWD (National Highway) Standard Schedule of Rates (2012-2013) for material and Labour. The basic rates for each construction items are analyzed on the basis of material study under taken the prices of construction materials collected from various sources and on the anticipated distance of source to the site of work. For items where these rates are not available, the rates were adopted as per previous experience of the consultants / market rates. Quantification of Items / Quantities The construction items covered in cost estimates are: site clearance, earthwork in new embankment subgrade, pavement in carriageways and shoulders, culverts, bridges, drainage and protection works, parking and lay-byes, resettlements, land acquisition, environmental protection, flyovers, electrification, toll plazas and miscellaneous items which includes pavement markings, signs, guard rails, etc. Special consideration was given for the stretches passing through hazardous conditions. For estimation of quantities & costs, various work items have been grouped under the following heads:

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Item

Detailed Description

Site Clearance & Earthwork

 Clearing and Grubbing, Removal of stumps of felled trees  Earth excavation  Fill by excavated earth  Sub-grade  Earthen Shoulder

Sub-base & Base Course

 Granular Sub-base  Wet Mix Macadam

Bituminous Courses

   

Bridges/

 Structures on Main Expressway with Service Road and Link

Polyurethane Paint /Road Over Bridge Cross Drainage Structures Drainage & Protective Works

Prime coat Tack Coat Dense Bituminous macadam Bituminous concrete

 RCC Box Culverts and Pipe Culverts

Toll Plaza

 Open Drain along with Expressway and Service Road  Km stone, Hecto meter stone Guard Stone Gantry Signs & Markings Lamp Posts  Toll Plaza

Environmental Plan

 Including plantation on median

Road furniture and safety works

Table 5.1: Project Cost

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• The earthwork quantities like roadway excavation and embankment have been calculated by MX software • The quantities for road pavement, base, sub-base etc. for main carriageway and service roads have been calculated through applicable typical cross section. Repairs to Bridges & Culverts A study of the existing bridges and culverts has been carried out to ascertain the structure to be retainedor reconstructed and the cost of the repairs, rehabilitation, and up-gradation for the link roads has been worked out by experienced bridge engineers and rehabilitation experts. The cost has been included in the cost estimate under repair of bridges. Summary of Adopted Rates Summary of rates for major construction items are presented in Table Sl. No.

Description

Unit

Rate in Rs.

1

Embankment

Cum

276

2

Sub-grade

Cum

333

3

GSB(Granular sub-base)

Cum

2216

4

WMM(wet mix macadam)

Cum

2561

5

Primer coat

Sq.m

28

6

Tack coat with 0.275kg/ sqm

Sq.m

13

7

Tack coat with 0.225kg/ sqm

Sq.m

10

8

DBM(dense bituminous macadam)

Cum

9166

9

Bituminous concrete (Grading-l)

cum

10887

Table 5.2 : Summary of Rates for Major Construction Items 5.3 SPECIFICATIONS The Specifications for various items of work have been assumed to follow the Guidelines for Expressway and Manual of Specifications and Standards for Six-lane of highways through PPP (public private partnership) published by IRC, Government of India.

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5.4 COST ESTIMATES The Cost Estimates have been estimated for the project expressway and link roads. Cost estimate includes cost for six lanes expressway with future widening to 8 lanes; the cost of structures has been adopted for eight lanes. The cost estimate also includes cost for link roads having 2 lanes with paved shoulder. The summary of cost estimates is given inTable

SUMMARY OF COST Particulars

Sr. No. 1 2 3

Amount

4 5 6 7 8

Bill No. 1: Site clearance and Dismantling Bill No. 2 : Earth Work Bill No. 3 : Grannular Sub Base Courses and Base Courses ( Non- Bituminous ) Bill No. 4 : Bituminous Courses Bill No. 5 : Culverts Bill No. 6A : Minor Bridges Bil No. 6B : Major Bridges Bill No. 6C :Repair & Rehabilitation (Bridges and Culverts)

163,571,209 19,224,101,904 17,549,609,091

9

Bill No. 6D : FO, ROB

2,366,828,713

10

Bill No. 6E : VUP/PUP

3,046,016,675

11

Bill No. 6F : Re Wall

1,655,437,043

12

Link Road (Structure Cost)

13

Bill No. 7 : Drainage & Protective Works

1,865,457,752

14

Bill No. 8 : Traffic signs, Road markings and other road appurtunences

4,082,621,308

15

Bill No. 9: Toll Plaza

196,836,624

16

Bill No. 10: Wayside Amenities

400,448,264

17

Bill No. 11 : Enviormental Plan

175,035,584.34

18

Bill No. 12 : Miscellaneous Works

17,762,721,962 573,809,371 2,663,005,361 4,517,061,706 8,397,328

227,047,862.87

757,403,050 Total Civil Cost

77,235,410,809

TPC (25% of Civil Cost)

96,544,263,511

Table 5.3 : Summary of Cost

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Chapter-6 Financial Analysis

6.1 PROJECT FINANCIALS The project financials have been worked out using the traffic, toll rates and other financial assumptions as presented in the subsequent sections.

6.2 Key Assumptions:The main assumptions made for undertaking the financial analysis are as follows: 1) Project Cost:-The project cost for the project has been considered as Rs. 9,654 Crore. 2) An additional cost of Rs. 500 Crores (current cost) has been considered as upgradation cost of 6Lane expressway to 8 Lane expressway, phased in two years i.e. 2037 -38 (40%) and 2038 – 39(60%). The cost has been escalated by 5% p.a. to arrive at 2037-38 level. 3) Project Phasing: The development phasing for the Project has been considered as follows: Year starting

Apr 1,14

Apr 1,15

Apr 1,16

Year ending

Mar31,15

Mar31,16

Mar31,17

Year

1

2

3

% age of cost incurred

20%

40%

40%

Table 6.1 : Key Assumptions 4) Escalation: A 5% escalation over the EPC cost has been considered during the construction period. 5) A Debt: Equity ratio of 70:30 has been assumed. 6) Period of Analysis: The construction period for the project has been assumed as three years. The total concession period considered for the purpose of analysis is 30 Years. 7) Additional revenue of 2.5% of total revenue has been considered as revenue from other sources such as advertising etc. 8) Repayment Period: A term loan repayment period of 12 years has been considered with amoratorium of 3 years during the operations period. The total door-to-door debt tenure works out to 18 (3+3+12) years. Structured repayment approach has been considered for amortization of debt. RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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9) Interest on Debt has been assumed at 11.5% pa throughout the debt tenure. 10) Taxation: Tax cost has also been considered to get a picture of the net earnings estimated to accrue to the project. The tax rates have been taken as follows:

Tax component

Corporate

Mat

Base tax rate

30.00%

18.50%

Surcharge

5.00%

5.00%

Education cess

3.00%

3.00%

Effective rate

32.45%

20.01%

Table 6.2 : Taxation While estimating the tax liability, whichever is higher of Corporate Tax or MAT, has been considered. 11) Depreciation: The depreciation on the project components have been calculated using the Straight Line Method (SLM) for Book Depreciation and Written Down Value (WDV) method for Tax Depreciation. 12) Grant of 40% of the project cost has been considered for the analysis.

6.3 Land Cost Based on the assumptions as provided in the previous section, the landed cost of the project with 40% grant from government will be: Start date

01Apr14

01Apr 15

01Apr1 6 31Mar 17

End date

31 Mar 15

31 Mar16

Escalation

1.00

1.05

1.10

Project cost including escalation & other charge

9654

1931

3862

3862

IDC

492

3

124

366

10146

1934

3985

4227

Total project cost

Table 6.3 : Land Cost

6.4 Funding:RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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The funding of the project with 40% grant is as provided in the table below:

Funding

-

-

Y1

Y2

Y3

Debt

70%

4262

55

2041

2165

Equity

30%

1826

1826

-

-

Grant

40%

4059

52

1944

2062

10146

1934

3985

4227

Total

Table 6.4 : Funding

7.5 Financial Indicators:Based on the above stated inputs, the exercise of financial analysis has been carried out for the proposed project.

1) (Post-Tax) Project - Internal Rate of Return (PIRR):IRR indicates the return a project will generate over a period of time. It is that rate of discount, whichmakes the Net Present Value equal to zero. Internal Rate of Return on Project is the return on the total project.

2) (Post-Tax) Equity - Internal Rate of Return (E-IRR):IRR indicates the return a project will generate over a period of time. It is that rate of discount, which makes the Net Present Value equal to zero. Internal Rate of Return on Equity (E-IRR) is the return thataccrues on the equity investment. The return for viability depends upon the expectation from theinvestment and accounts for taxes, interest, loan repayment, etc. The financial analysis has been carried out using the inputs as already explained above. The outputs for thefinancial indicators are shown in the table below:

Chapter-7 Reference RAJ KUMAR GOEL ENGINEERING COLLEGE, GHAZIABAD

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1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agra_Lucknow_Expressway 2. http://www.masterplansindia.com/expressways/india-longest-agra-lucknowexpressway-20-facts-to-know 3. http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/pocketmaps/agralucknow.htm 4. www.upeida.in/agra_lko_expressway_feasibility_report. 5. www.delhi.gov.in 6. MoSRT&H 7. IRC-64-1990 8. IRC: 22 9. IRC: 6 10. IRC: 83 (Part II) 11. IS: 1786 12. IS: 432 (Part I). 13. IRC: 112. 14. IRC: SP 13 15. Pocket Book for Highway Engineers (Second Revision) published by the IRC, NewDelhi in 2002

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