P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
1
1. INTRODUCTION We will be shouldering the responsibilities of executive of tomorrow so it is to understand methods, plans, various techniques that are essential to operate the effectively and efficiently. For this purpose we must have the knowledge of PPC. This is also true that this subject intervene into many departments of industrial organization, their relations with these departments are explained in first few topics. This basic objective of creating the manufacturing organization is to make the products. Thus the production is the nucleus or the centre of entire business operations. It must be emphasized, however, that on signal system of forecasting, preplanning, planning and control is suited to all industrial enterprises, no matter how well it may meet the needs of this on that special company. PPC functions look after the manufacturing activities. PPC comprise the planning, routing, dispatching in the manufacturing process so that the movement of material, performance of machines and operation of labour however are subdivided and are directed and coordinated as to quantity, quality, time and place. Planning and control are two basic and interrelated managerial functions. They are so interrelated that they can be and often are considered as being one function. Planning is the preparation activity while control is the post-operation function. Both of them are so closely related that they are treated as Siamese twins. Planning sets the objectives, goals, targets on the basis of available resources with their given constraints. Control is the integral part of effective planning.
Similarly control involves assessment of the performance, such
assessment can be made effectively only when some standard of are set in advance. Planning involves setting up to such standard. The controlling is made by comparing the actual performance with these present standard and deviations are ascertained and analyzed. Production is an organised activity of converting raw materials into useful products but before starting that work of actual production, production planning is done in order to anticipated possible difficulties and decide in advance as to how the production should be carried out in the best and economical way. Since mere planning of production is not only sufficient, hence management takes all possible steps to see that project or plan chalked by the planning department are properly adhered to and the standards set are attained in order to achieve it, control over production is exercised. The aim of production control is to produce the products of right quality, in right quantity at the right time by using the best and least expensive methods.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
2
PPC thus defines as the process of planning the production in advance, setting the exact route of each item give “production order” to shops and lastly to follows up of progress of produces according to order. The principles of PPC gives in the statement, “First plan your work, then work your plan”. There are few other department associated with PPC are personnel department, manpower planning, costing department etc. Design department is important one as “ The design is the problem of anticipating or trying to do what will be required in future and improving what is being already produced. 1.2 PREPLANNING, PLANNING & CONTROL The activities of preplanning, planning and control may be considered to take place in a time sequence. The preplanning is completed before production commences. Planning takes place immediately before production starts and control is exercised during production. Preplanning : It is the procedure followed in developing and designing a work or production of a developing and installing a proper layout or tools. It may be involved many functions of the organization and draws upon forecasting, product design, jigs and tool design, machine selection and estimating to enable proper design to be made. In short, preplanning decides what shall be made and how it shall be made. In respective manufacture a large uneconomic output could be produced if preplanning is omitted. It is also important in one of the operations such as setting up a new plants as preplanning can identify and avoid probable costly errors. Planning : This stage decides where and when the product shall be made. It includes the sequencing of operations viz outing and the time schedule for manufacturing viz scheduling. It also states procedures for material planning and supplies, machine loading and deliveries. To perform as functions properly it will need past records of performance and to control statistic which may be obtained from pre-planning, cost control or progress. Control : This refers to the stage of ensuring that the planned action is in tact carried out. Control initiate the plan at the right time using dispatching and there after control makes appropriate adjustments through progressing to take care of any unforeseen circumstances
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
3
that might arise. It includes measurement of actual results, comparison of the same with the planned action and feeding back information the planning stage to make any adjustments required. The pattern of control is seen in material control, machine utilization, labour control, cost control and quality control. 1.3 PROJECT PLANNING OR PREPLANNING : Before starting every project its planning is done. Planning a project is a very important task and should be taken up with great care as the efficiency of the whole project largely depends upon its planning. While planning a project each and every detail should be worked out in anticipation and should be considered carefully considering all the relevant provisions in advance. Project planning consists of the following important steps. 1) Market Survey : Market survey in a broad sense, is a commercial survey for the suitability of business it provides necessary statistics helpful for forecasting planning project. 2) Project Capacity : Capacity of the project must be decided considering the amount of money which can be invested for particular type of product and how the money which can be invested for a particular type of product and how the money can be arranged. While deciding the capacity of the project, following factors must be considered. i) Demand of the product in the market. ii) Quantity of power, water, land and raw material available. iii) Nature of product. iv) investment capacity. 3) Selection of Site : While selecting the site, technical, commercial and financial aspects should thoroughly be considered. Site should be selected in two states; in first stage general location for factory should be selected in this location. Important factors to be considered for the selection of site. i) General location of the factory. ii) Selection of exact site. 4) Plant Layout : One of the most important aspects of production system design is layout of facilities primary object of these is to optimize the arrangements “ 4 m’s” and supporting services. 5) Design and Drawing :
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
4
After deciding the product its detailed drawing are prepared so that no doubt is left for future. Detailed specifications for raw materials and finished product should be decided carefully along with the specification of the machines required for their manufacture. 6) Material requirement : The list of materials required for manufacture is prepared from the engineering drawings. This list is known as “Bill of materials” part list”. 7) Operation Planning : Work of this is to select the best method of manufacturing, so that the wastage of material, labour, machine and time can be eliminated, to have more production with less fatigue. This work is done in two phases, namely. Method study is conducted to eliminate the wastage due to ill directed and inefficient motions. Time study is the exact estimation of time and is very essential for correct pricing. 8) Machine loading : Number of machines to be installed in a plant should be decided very carefully while planning, proper care should be taken to find out the machining time for each operation as correct as possible, so that arrangement for full utilization of machines can be made and machines loading program is prepared accordingly. 9) Sub-contract consideration : With the development of technology and specialization, it is difficult to manufacture all the components in the same factory, due to fact that specialized machines plants and workers. The decision about particular item, whether to purchase or to manufacture, is taken by planning department after making a through study of the relative merits and demerits. 10) Equipment Requirement : After knowing the number of equipments, their accessories and tools required, cost data can be collected to give and idea of capital requirement. 11) Organisational Layout and staff Requirement : Layout of organisation is decided by considering the nature of work, type of industry size of industry, etc and in line of above the stalls are appointed. 12) Material Handling : The material handling problems must be studied before the erection of the factory building and plant layout. 13) Budgeting : Budgeting is forecasting and preplanning for a particular future period using past experience and market trends.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
5
14) Cost Calculation Total cost of a product is calculated by adding the expenses incurred during the period on a product. 15) Procurement of Finance : Generally large industries manage their block capital through partners and shareholders. While the working capital arranged through ‘shares debentures, loans and banks. 16) Critical Report on Feasibility : Generally, rate of return on the invested capital is taken as the criteria for analysing the feasibility of the project. 1.4 PLANNING Planning is exercise of intelligent anticipation in order to establish how an objective can be achieved, or a need fulfilled, in circumstances which are invariable restrictive. Planning provides the supporting arithmetic for an objective which has already been decided.
It does not establish whether the objective is right or wrong, good or bad,
worthwhile or worthless except in terms which have also been decided beforehand. Consequently, only plan is invariably biased in favour of the chosen objective. Incidentally, to attack it on this count is rather like shooting the plainest and setting fire to the plans, not because the plainest is playing badly or the plans are out of the tune, but simply because one does not like the music which is being played. Planning is an act of prediction, the accuracy of which varies enormously depending upon the kind of objective, kind of circumstances, the skill of the planner and his techniques and chance. Planning is necessary because resources are limited. Production planning activities originate at the aggregate level and consider decisions relevant to a specific planning horizon. A planning horizon can be a period as short as four weeks a month, or a quarter (03 weeks) but more commonly refers to periods of from six months to a year or more. The aggregate planning problem is to determine the production rate which satisfies the anticipated output requirements; while minimizing the related costs associated with the fluctuation of work force, inventories, and other relevant decision variables such as overtime hours subcontracting and capacity utilization. Production planning translated sales forecast into master production schedules. There are three distinct types of production planning: i) Project planning.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
6 ii) Lot or batch planning. iii) Progressive of continuous planning.
1.5 THE CONCEPTS OF PRODUCTION PLANNING AND SCHEDULING The concept of production planning is probably best defined by reversion that to read “The planning of production”. As used here, it refers to the establishment of policies, procedures, and facilities for manufacturing operations to produce product required for future. It is ultimately tied to both capacity planning and product determination in which products will be produced and in what quantities and is future oriented. It looks ahead ensure that the inputs consists not only of machinery and raw materials but of people skills, control systems funds and various types of inventories. In essence, production planning make sure that everything is available on time to meet the production target manufacturing system is circumscribed by various limiting factors such market price quality delivery requirements, funds availability and inherent product restrictions like process time or special storage requirements.
Planning must take these into account so as to ensure task
performance with both limitations and objectives. Scheduling, on the other hand, is more specific and less oriented to the future scheduling accepts current conditions like available machinery, manpower and material etc on provides as detailed pots for utilizing there facilities to achieve immediate product objectives. A scheduling starts with the desired end results and provides BLUE-PRO for accomplishing the task on hand. Schedules may be as specific as time and cost per. They may outline general steps needed to complete a task or they may lay down specific operations, starts times completion times etc. Often the more specific a schedule is the better it can be used as a production control device. It is important to note that the division between planning, scheduling an control is artificial. Much of the value of production plans and scheduled are lost if procedures do not exist to provide information feedback, how well are plans functioning? How well as the schedules being adhered to ? These are important inputs, not just because they permit measurement of planning and scheduling abilities, but also because they provide cards warning of deviations and permit corrective action at early stages. They also provide useful managerial developments tools and valuable information for future planning efforts. The inventory control is the related aspect under production control, through inventors control is a complex attain involving both cost and the use of certain important
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
7
concept and techniques. The amount inventory on hand will affect production plans as well as customers delivery and the form of inventory like raw or finished material, and the good at various stages of processing. It is readily apparent the need for adequate production planning, especially in situation where long lead time are required to change production capabilities. Requirement of rare work force skills of imported equipment or raw materials of expanded plants of facilities can often severally reduce a companies, abilities to meet changing market condition considerable advance planning is done, a manufacturing limitation and it self was insufficient productive capabilities or with an over supply of absolute limited goods. 1.6 PRODUCTION Implementation is the stage of the project when the theoretical design is turned in to working system. Implementation phase involves the staff of user departments carrying out specific tasks which require supervision and control to critical schedules. Production is the process by which goods and services are created. Production systems combine materials, labours, and capital resources in an organised way with the objective of producing some goods or service. Production system may occur in factories, banks, stores, hospitals etc. In all instances, some input to the system is being processed within the system to produce a goods or services as an output; we are in fact dealing with the operations phases of any enterprise. ‘Creation’ of goods and services of production, to perform this function, the production system require inputs from other subsystems of the organization, such as service inputs ( e.g. maintenance, supervision, plant layout, design etc.) and control inputs (e.g. measurement, data processing, planning, control, order and sales information processing, forecasting etc.). Three main factors may be said to determine the place of production planning and control in an organization. 1. The type of production i.e. the quantities of finished products and the regularity of manufacture. 2. Size of the plant. 3. The type of industry i.e. the field of specialization of the plant. Industries can be classified into types by several methods; by availability of different kinds of labour in different geographical locations, by the demand for different grades of skills, and by the factors relating to investment policy.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
8
1.7 THE MAIN OBJECTIVES OF PRODUCTION PLANNING 1. To determine capacity of all manufacturing departments and to plan systematically coordinated and related production activities within the scope of the enterprise to meet sales requirements. 2. To translate orders received from sales department into orders on the works department and to ensure steady plans of production activities. 3. To find ways and means through which product manufacturing requirements such as materials and their necessary constituents such may be available in right quality and quantity at the right time. 4. To coordinate a number of different department groups so that a fine balance of activities may be maintained. 5. To promote fuller utilization of plants. 6. To assist labour towards right and greater earnings. 7. To train staff in the effective performance of their duties. 1.8 CONTROL The principles of control are the same for production control, quality control, budgetary control, cost control and other managerial controls. The basic cycle of events in the control are Action, Feedback, Evaluation and Adjustment.
Since these events are
dynamically in continuous they take the form of a closed-loop circuit. There are seven essential steps in the establishment and application of operating controls. These steps will be discussed in their normal sequence and is diagrammatically represented in figure 1.1. (A) Operation : The first step in the control cycle is operation. In this step, the act of doing something, some faults will be obvious and, therefore, easily corrected. Other faults will be more deceptively concealed requiring the steps that follow to reveal them so that they can be dealt with. (B) Measurement : The second step is so measure what is being done. In the field of quality control for example, variations in physical, chemical, electrical, dimensional and other properties are measured. In production control, all operations are measured to determine the time required for their performance and the capacities of equipment with which work is done.
In
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
9
automatic electronic and mechanical operations must be measured accurately in terms of milliseconds before a whole system can be integrated. (C) Capabilty Studies : Analysis of measurements in step two, aided by many reliable statistical technique gives an accurate projection of what actually can be done. In production control we need to know quality process capabilities so that scrap and defer losses can be figured. Studies of process capabilities tell us what we can do.
(D) Objectives : After we discover what we can do, we are ready to figure out what we should as this may either be more or less than our capabilities. This decision then leads to plans for using excess capabilities on other plans to increase capabilities either for quality or quantity so that the objective can be met. (E) Evaluations : As the information is fed back from operations, it is compared with plans and objectives other evaluations are used to adjust budgets and costs. (F) Adustment : The last step in production control is adjustment. Production control adjustments are complicated because they often require increasing or reducing quantities based upon past operation and sales in quality control adjustments are made to maintain product quality requirement within limits. The figure 1.1 illustrates the best cycle in control of production. In it, image two rotating sequence on the basic elements of action, feedback and evaluation that come logure in compound adjustment. This is based on the current information. (G) Feedback & Flexibility : It we shoot at the target but cannot tell how close to the balls eye or bullet hits out next shot is likely to be no better than first. But if we do know where the first shot has hit, we can adjust the aim for next one and thus improve our marksmanship. Information received after the performance of an action in time to be used as the basis for future, performance is known as feedback, it is the vital control.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
10
The keys to successful plant implementation are feedback and flexibility. Information must be provided to measure actual progress against the planned and when discrepancies exists, the manufacturing enterprise must be flexible enough to shift, if necessary. This implies the establishment of details, benchmarks during the planned period. Measures of progress, explicit statements concerning the assumptions made about the operating environment and a formal procedure for analyzing the process. “Doubling production within two years” is not a plan. It is a goal. The plan must indicate how this will be done, when the various steps will begin and be completed and what assumption underline the plan and goal. As the plan is being implemented, frequent checks are required to determine whether or not things are proceeding on schedule e.g. ordering of machinery, training of new workers, behaviour of market.
The cause behind any
discrepancies must be examined. Only then we will know whether to speed up or slow down present rate or progress or a shift is required ? 1.9 WHAT IS FUNCTIONS OF PPC : The highest efficiency in production is obtained by manufacturing the required quantity of product of required quality, at the required time by best and cheapest method. To certain this objective management employs PPC tool which coordinates all manufacturing activities. The main functions of PPC are the coordination of all the activities, which exist during production or manufacturing. (I) Materials : Raw material, standard finished parts, finished parts of products must be available while starting the operation within the time. (II) Methods : The purpose of this function is to analyze all methods of manufacture and select the best method according to the given set of circumstances and facilities. It determines the sequence of operations and the division of product into the assemblies and sub-assemblies, modified by the limitation of existing layout and work flow. (III) Machines And Equipments : Methods of manufacturing have to be related to the available production facilities coupled with a detail study of equipment replacement policy.
Maintenance policy,
procedure and schedules are also functions connected with managerial responsibilities for equipment. Design of economy of jigs and fixtures constitutes some of major duties of PPC. (IV) Routing :
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
11
“The specification of the flow of sequence of operation and processes to be followed in producing a particular manufacturing a lot is routing”. Routing determines that work will be done on the product of parts as well as where and How it will be done. It estimates the operations, their path, sequence proper class of machines and personnel required for these operations. determine what to make and what to purchase.
An analysis of the article do
Decision as whether to fabricate a
component or purchase it from elsewhere. These are based on relative cost, technical consideration purchasing policies, availability of equipment, personnel, skill. An analysis of article to determine what material are needed :- It depends upon the drawing, specifications, standard of quality, identification symbol, application in product. This depicts the additional material needed Figure 1.2 demonstrate the general procedure in production routing. A determination of manufacturing operation and the sequence .
This section
establishes the operation necessary to manufacture the proper sequence on route sheet and operation sheet. Determination of lot sheet. It depends primarily upon the manufacturing involved. If the product is to be manufactured strictly to a sold order, the customers order plus a certain average or allowance of stock, the lot size depends upon the primary of economic lot quantities etc., the quantity to manufacture so that for which the sum of the set-up and other preparation cost and the cost of carrying an inventory of the article manufactured at the minimum. Determination of scrap factor : Is the anticipated normal scrap encountered in the course of manufacturing. The difference of amount of “SHRINKAGE’ depends upon the scrap factor encountered in the process best practice dictates the establishment of standard scrap factors for use in routing and scheduling. Analysis of cost article : It includes cost accounting department for cost estimating of product. Factors Affecting Routing Procedure: 1. Manufacturing type employed. 2. Availability of plant equipment and its component parts. 3. Characteristic of physical plant equipment and its component parts. 4. Human elements. (V) Estimating :
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
12
When production orders and detailed operation sheet available with specification feeds, speed and use of auxiliary attachments and method, the operation time can be worked out. It may be consequently results in wide scatter of operation times and unduly large fluctuation and perhaps instabilities in time schedules. (VI) Loading & Scheduling : Machines have to be loaded according to their capabilities performance the given and according to the capacity. Machine loading is carried out in connection with routing to ensure smooth work flow work estimating, to ensure that the prescribed methods feeds and speed are best utilized. Careful analysis of process capacities so that flow rates along the various production lines can be suitable coordinated. The distinction between planning and scheduling is largely semantically and based upon difference in detail and time period. The schedule is very detailed plan for an immediate and relatively short time period. The difference between the plan and the schedule can be illustrated by looking at the objectives. The plan may ask to double production within two years. The schedule will to produce 300 units of articles during week number 1,200 units during week and so on. Scheduling often refers to the specific determination of what is going to the production during the next few weeks or months.
This involves determination of the
individuals machines that are going to produce the items when they will be started and completed what quantities ( lot or Batch sizes ) they will be produced and with what materials. But many other activities are also scheduled such as maintenance, movement of goods and materials and oven staff meetings. In essence, a schedule is a detailed statement of how when and where specific resources are going to the employed to produce specified output or results. At this levels of detail, the schedules is often in separable from the control system e.g. the financial areas, a budget can be regarded as a schedule of funds usage. On the hand, the budget is also an integral part of the control system for monitoring expenditure. The schedule thus provides a short range sequence of activities one for which we must have sensitive controls and rapid response time. Scheduling can be very simple or very complex. Perhaps the most simple type schedule can be illustrated by an example drawn from cottage industry. A worker may be asked to produce as given number of work carvings or square meters of handloom fabric per week. The control is very simple and consists primarily of a count made each week, when the goods are lifted by employer.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
13
Decision Rules : The scheduling function is such a detailed process that it must usually be delegated to middle or lower management levels. Consequently, the schedulers, of themselves, are actually not in position to relate their activities to the overall company goals and objective. Yet their function is vital to the achievement of such ends. Consequently, it is necessary to establish decision rules which will help tie the two levels of management together. Decision rules for scheduling should be fairly specific. Not only do they serve the purpose of linking the scheduling function with the attainment of total organizational goals but they provide consistency in scheduling practice so that people can be interchanged, so that schedules can be interpreted uniformly throughout the organization, and so that even one concerned will under stand the process. They also make it possible to place much of the scheduling detail work on computers. Decision rules can take many forms. The selection of the particular rules will largely depend upon the particular circumstance for which they are required. Competitive made of conditions, internal cost structures, the nature of the product, capacity consideration etc will all have their effect. EXAMPLES OF POSSIBLE DECISION RULES INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING : 1. Schedule the longest jobs first. 2. Schedule jobs in the order they are received. 3. Schedule the job with the earliest delivery dates first. 4. Schedule jobs on a random basis. 5. Schedule first those jobs with the use production facilities for which we have the greatest idle capacity. 6. Schedule all jobs first which requires operation in department 1. 7. Schedule customer As order before all others. Each of these rules (usually in combination with others) provides a means of regarding tasks.
There are an almost unlimited number of possibilities (including the
converse of some of the above and these are provided solely for illustration. It is worth noting that such decision rules are applicable to all scheduling processes not only these which deal with production operations. Companies often experiment of determine the specific set of rules which make sense for their particular situations. In fact, it is possible to use part or projected at orders to simulate operations in the factory and determine the effect of a given set of decision rules in
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
14
advance of their actual introduction. This can be very useful and save considerable relief and confusion as follows the testing of such rules without the disruption of production. Again, there is a caution involved in the use of decision rules. It is extremely difficult to design any set of rules which will cover every situation. Consequently, decision rules must be considered only as guidelines, not absolute, and flexibility must exist to deviate when necessary. On the other hand, it is probably sensible to require a through explanation every time a deviation is authorized, lost deviation from the rules become more common than applications of the guidelines. If the rules are well constructed they should tend to maximize benefits to the firm as a whole and should not be changed capriciously by individuals who cannot see the impact of such changes on overall corporate goals. However, this also implies the need for continuous review procedures to make sure that the rules are in tune with present conditions. A point often overlooked is that if decision rules for scheduling are not formally and explicitly established, they usually evolve in through default. Each person involved in the scheduling process will usually have his own method-perhaps one that makers sense only to him, but still a method. Sometimes this may be the best the alternative for a firm (e.g.the potential cost saving do not justify taking the time to establish a formal procedure). However, this should be explicitly determined. Otherwise, an organisation may be looking a major opportunity for improvement and enhanced efficiency. (VII) Diaspatching : It is important mechanism of production control. Meaning of this term is sending to destination or starting something on way. When applied to production control, it means the assignment of work to different machines or work places which involves insurance of order and production form in order of their priority as determined by scheduling. In dispatching translated into reality or physical work which has been planned scheduling. Duties of Dispatching : 1. Assignment of work to different machines of work place men. 2. Movement of material from stores to the first process and from process. 3. Issue of tool orders, instructing the tool department to collect and make ready jigs and fixtures, in advance of time, at which the operation will commence. 4. Issue of time ticket, drawing, instruction cards & other necessary information presented performing the work. 5. Issue of inspection order after each operation to determine the result in the number of pieces “good” and the “bad” and cause of spoilage.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
15
6. Issue of more orders and collection of time tickets, drawings, instruction cards for all completed operations. 7. Recording time of beginning and completing jobs hand calculate duration of, forwarding complete records to production department and time card pay roll department. 8. Recording and reporting idle time of machine and operation. Dispatching Procedure : Manner in which schedule or orders are issued depends upon whether the dispatching decentralized or centralized in the Decentralized : The manufacturing schedules or work orders in blanket fashion to the foreman or dispatch clerk within department. It is duty of foreman or clerk to dispatch the orders of material to each machine and operator. In centralized dispatching : This involves the dispatching of orders from central dispatching division to machine or work station.
Capacity and characteristic of each
machine is recorded in central dispatching station. Regardless of type of dispatching it is customary for department to department themselves informed of the starting dates, progress of each order by means of wall chart visible index file or one of the several types of department dispatching boards. Dispatching Rule: Simple Rule : 1. Earliest due date : Run the job with the earliest due date, results in good date performance. 2. First come first served : Run the job which arrived in the waiting line first. Result at low variance of manufacturing cycle time. 3. Shortest processing time : Run the job which has the shortest set up plus machining for the current work centre. Combination Rule : 1. Minimum stock : Slack equals calendar time remaining minus processing time remaining or slack equals date minus present time minus set up and machining time all remaining operation. 2. Critical ratio : The critical ratio are made to order work is a slack type rule. Critical equals 0 to due date minus present time divided by number of days required to complete the job order. (VIII) Expediting : Follow up which regulates the progress of materials and parts through the production process.
This closely inter elated with activities of dispatcher to whom is
delegated scheduling responsibility.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
16
Follow up is that novel tool which acts as a regulator of material and components parts when they are traveling on the path of performance as laid down by sheets and schedule charts. It serves as a catalytic agent to fuse the various separate an unrelated production activities into the unified whole that means progress. TYPE : 1. Materials : To follow up purchased materials is responsibility or purchasing department. This can be accomplished most simply by filling one copy of requisition in a daily follow up file or in ticket file according to the date of materials is due to be received. 2. Work in progress : This follow up the work by checking the process and recording the production accomplished by production line for comparison purpose with preplanned schedules. It is the duty of follow-up men or expediters to advise the foreman as to the best sequence in which the orders can be run so as the required part in which order to be fabricated and brought it together at right time, place for the completion of finished product. 3. Assembly and Erection : Responsibility for assembly and erection of products in assembly manufacturing is almost invariably rested. When all the parts of an available, the follow up man permits assembly of election of products in start in case of large complicated product this is very necessary. (IX) Inspection : Another major control is inspection. Its finding land criticism are of the importance both in execution of current program and both in planning stage of fibre undertaking when the limitations of the processor, method and manpower are known. These limitations can form a basis for future investigations in evaluating the showed improving production methods. (X) Evaluating : Perhaps the most neglected, but on an essential link between control and forwarding is that of evaluating. The essential task of dispatching and evaluating are concerned with the immediate issue of production and with measures that will be as certain fulfillment target. Valuable information is gathered limited in nature and unless provision is made so that all the accumulated information can be properly digested and analyzed data may be irretrievable lost. Thus here the evaluating function comes in to provide a feedback mechanism on the longer term basis so that the past experience can be evaluated with the view to improving utilization of method and facilities. This is the integral part of control function.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
17
1 Materials Production development and design Sates forecasting and estimating
4 Routing
7 Despatching
Planning
Resource
2 Methods
5 Estimating
8 Inspection
Factory layout Equipment policy Pre-planning production
The 4 M’s
3 Machine and Manpower
6 Scheduling
9 Expediting
10 Evaluating
Succession of functional responsibilities Feedback Preplanning
Planning
Control
Fig. 1.1 The ten function of production planning and control cycle.
MATERIAL PLANNING The importance of material in manufacturing concern needs the explanation because in its absence production is not possible. Moreover it affects the efficiency of all machines, money & marketing division of an industry. But there are so many problems awarded with the management of materials, such as investment in materials idle funds, storage of obsolescence problem, wastage of material in handling etc.
Which require immediate
attention of management. So that the most of production may be reduced to the minimum & the quality of product may be maintained.
As material consume lion’s share of the
investment and that too with a possibility of turnover, its efficient management consumed to the profitability of the organisation. Material planning is the important activity of materials managements. It should also be noticed that inventory ‘Control’ is an integral part of the materials production material.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
18
Material planning means to develop a purchasing procedure. For procurement of materials, it is essential to know how much quantity is required. Based on these information the procurement program is drawn up & financial provision is made materials planning & programming is also essential to place the orders well in advance (lead time) so that delivery at right time is ensured. The starting point of the planning of materials procurement is the production schedules & bill of materials stores & spare parts, planning is done with the help of forecasted demand & the consumption patterns. Based on the annual forecast, production schedules are made. Working backwards on the schedules the dates on which the difference materials must be in plant, are calculated. Appropriate factor of safety should be used in working out latest date of arrival. The quantities required are also calculated with he help of bill of materials. Materials planning for project work can be done in the similar way, in such cases use of network techniques can be made to arrive at later date of materials. In batch manufacturing, where items are assembled in batches, certain components may be required in large quantities at infrequent intervals i.e. to suit batch assembly schedule. There will be little benefit in maintaining stocks of all parts & items at all items since at most times these stocks will not be drawn upon. Thus the procedure can be developed by which those items required for assembly are available at the time required stocks of these items are not maintained or are maintained at a far lower level. Thus materials planning activity acts as a effective link between the purchasing or procurement & the manufacturing function. It require the knowledge of.... 1.
Bill of material quantity, quality & specification of material
2.
Production of Assembly schedule.
3.
Supply lead times & dependability.
4.
Manufacturing capacity.
5.
Overall economy.
1.16 MATERIAL PLANNING FUNCTIONS AND OBJECTIVE. 1.
Translation of the sales projections into long term requirements.
2.
On the basis of updated production plan adjusted to the latest sales demand to adjust
the materials accordingly. 3.
To project the facilities required for the materials management.
4.
Setting up of consumption standards, for working out requirements.
5.
To perform value analysis to determine the intrinsic worth of materials.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
19
6.
To decide whether to Make or Buy.
7.
To highlight exception & priorities.
8.
To keep inventories as low as possible.
9.
To procure parts as & when needed by the production/assembly schedule.
1.17 TYPES OF INVENTORIES The term inventory refers to the stock of some kind of physical commodity like raw materials, component parts, supplies & consumable stores, work-in-progress & finished goods. The analysis of the cost structure of many of the product reveals that inventories cost range form 40% to 85% of the product cost. Thus inventories indicate a major of application of financial resources & efficient inventory control can contribute substantially to the profitability of the business. The type and amount of inventory which an organisation should hold will depend upon several aspects including the product manufactured, or service provided/service range type of manufacture and span of process. The Principal Types of Inventories Are : INPUT
Production Inventory
PROCESS
In-process Inventory
OUTPUT
Finished Inventory
1. Production Inventories : Items which go into the final products raw materials and bought out components. 2. Maintenance, Repair and Operating Inventories : Items which do not form a part of final product but are consumed in a prod. Processes, spare parts, Consumable items etc. 3.
In Process Inventories : Work-in-progress items which are partly manufactured and
await the next stage in process. 4. Finished Goods Inventories completed products ready for dispatch. 5. Miscellaneous Inventories : Which arise out of the above four types of inventory scrap, surplus and obsolete items which are not to be disposed off. Inventories are also classified as : 1. Transit Inventory/Pipe line inventory : This inventory results because of the transportation time required. Transit inventory exist between factory & place of supply or between & factory. e.g. Coal, iron ores etc.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
20
2. Buffer inventory/Safety Stock Inventory/Fluctuation Inventory : These are the inventories maintained to adjust with variation in demand & supply & to avoid out of stock condition & back ordering. 3. Anticipation Inventory : These inventories are maintained to adjust with sudden change in demand ( e.g. seasonal products ).
Instead of producing more in particular season a
producing less during rest of the year, inventories can be allowed to build up before the season. This will avoid idle or shut downs & resource utilization can be increased. 4. Decoupling Inventories : Same as in process inventories to ensure smooth & uniform work flow. 5. Cycle Inventories/Lot size Inventories : These are maintained wherever the user makes or purchases material in larger lots than are needed for his immediate purpose to take the advantages of quantity discounts, to keep shipping cost in balance, & to hold down clerical costs & handling cost. So these inventories are maintained purely due to the interest of management. 1.18 ABC ANALYSIS OR VALUE DISTRIBUTION ABC Analysis is the basic method of stock control generally used in a medium size company. Inventory in a to execute proper control it is necessary to take selective approach & find out the attention required for each type of item, according to its importance. In relation to the inventory control the curve demonstrates the ‘law’ that a small proportion of the stocked item accounts for a large proportion of inventory cost or value. Their relationship is often referred to as 80/20 ‘law’ i.e., up to 80% of firm’s total inventory cost or value is accounted by about 20 % types of encourage categories various types of inventory items in to three classes viz. A, B & C. Class ‘A’ : Those relatively few types of items ( upto 20% ) Age of total cost ( upto 80% ) Class ‘B’ : Slightly larger no of types of items ( upto 30% ) which account percentage of total cost ( upto 15% ) Class ‘C’ : That large no. of types of items which account for a very small (up to 5%) of total cost. In this analysis, priority is determined by the money value of the importance of the item. Hence class ‘A’ items need to be very closely controlled by the management analysis can be referred as the basic analytical material management tool. 1.19 EXAMPLE OF A CLOTHING
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
21
WHOLE SELLER, FOR ABC ANALYSIS The table below shows the bought in prices & annual sales of the set of different types of garments which are held in stock by a whole seller. Construct an ABC chart for these items & suggest which items should be treated as class A, B, & C. Item Type ( Items/Yr )
Purchase price (Rs.)
Annual sales
A
8
1250
B
18
450
C
30
75
D
25
10
E
3
280
F
4
080
G
18
45
H
7
250
I
12
150
J
26
30
Solution : Calculation of Annual Value ( Step I ) Items
A
B
Annual 10000 8100
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
10
2250
250
340
320
810
1750
1800
780
26900
Values or uses Where, 10 – the column is total annual value. Order items by descending annual values & calculate common annual value (Step II) ITEM TYPE
ANNUAL VALUE
CUMULATIVE
CLASS
% (OF 26000) A
10,000
37
A
B
8,100
67
A
C
2,250
76
B
I
1,800
82.5
B
H
1750
89
B
E
840
92
C
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
22 810
95
C
J
780
98
C
F
320
99
C
D
250
100
C
COMULATIVE % OF TOTAL ANNUALVALUE OF STOCK
G
120 100 80 60 A B C 40 Items Items e,g,j,f,d 20 a,b c,i,h 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 COMULATIVE % OF STOCKED ITEMS
SUMMARY ( STEP IV) CLASS
ITEMS
% ITEMS
ANNUAL VALUE
%
OF
OF ANNUAL
CLASS
VALUE
A
a,b,
20
18,100
@ 67
B
e,i,b
30
5,800
@ 20.5
C
e,g,j,f,d
50
3,000
@ 12.5
CONCLUSION : It is evident from the discussion that to have an healthy organization the pre planning and post-planning activities are to be ground property at the initial stage turning organization, after preplanning the links are connected with PPC department planning, evaluation, adjustment, feedback and overall control.
Ten functions of PPC as if ten
Commandments to be followed in any manufacturing industry. Depending upon the nature of production and size of unit, these functions are glooming in determination position and when required. But it appears in one of other forms. We cannot, therefore abolish its
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
23
existence in the organization. In case, it has been evacuated purposely it fleets badly on the associated activities and ten departments involved thereon. This has been depicted precisely in the data sheet. We observed that in almost all functions, PPC is the governing department and therefore it has been after every function, if not in existence. Therefore, PPC can be considered and value as a heart on the manufacturing of any type and any size. Therefore to have an healthy organization, less confusion in workers, proper feeding to top management to chalk out their dynamic policies, PPC department plays a very important and vital role in organization. Naturally, it should be made more dynamic, powerful by shoulding more authorities and responsibilities on the experienced and conservative staff of PPC department.
Gov1990 P.No.1 :- What are the main benefits of PPC ? P.No.2.:- “Communication is very imp function of business office; Issue the statement highlighting the characteristics of good of inter communication. N/1010 What is the need of the PPC? Explain production control as a nervous system? (3+4) “Scheduling” planning function and “Expedities” a set of function. In a small firm it was proposed to allocate been representative “arm perion should you approve of suit
LEARN AUTO-CAD 2000i & Mechanical Desktop IN JUST Rs 1000/ONLY AT SIDDHIVINAYAK COMPUTERS FOR COACHING IN OPERATION RESEARCH TECHNIQUE (O.R.T.) CONTACT ATER. RAJESH JARUDKAR 6453117 VISIT US AT: http://business.vsnl.com/siddhivinayak_akola
MAIL US AT:
[email protected] OUR OTHER PUBLICATION FOR FINAL YEAR ¾ ADVANCE PRODUCTIVITY TECHNIQUE(APT) ¾ INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION AND MANAGEMENT(IOM) ¾ PROCESS ENGINEERING(PE)
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
24 ¾ MACHINE TOOL CONTROL(MTC)
2. SALES FORECASTING A forecast is an estimate of the level demand to the expected for a production of several products for some period of time in the future. Forecast is made of sales ( in Rs.) or physical units under a proposed marketing or program & under an assumed set of economic & other force outside the unit system). Forecast should cover a time period at least as long as the period of time required to make the decision & to put that decision into effect. Applications/uses/purposes : There are 3 major purposes. 1) To determine necessity for & the size of plant expansion ( Facility Forecast ) 2) To determine intermediate planning for existing products to be manufactured with existing facilities. 3) To determine Short-time scheduling of existing products to be manufactured on existing equipments ( Product Forecast ) Methods of Sales Forecasting/Types Forecasting for new product
Forecasting for established product
1. Direct Survey method.
1. Related information method.
2. Indirect Survey method.
2. Market Research.
3. Comparing with established product.
3.Sales force composite method or Subjective opinion method.
4. Limited market trial.
4. Jury of Executive opinion. 5. Projection method. 6. Statistical method.
Forecasting for a new product is difficult task as no past information is available to predict the future. 1) Direct Survey method : In this method, representative sample of customers are approached & asked, what they intend to buy. By doing so, it is possible to predict, with some degree of certainly how the population will respond. changes, customs, habits, social requirements are considered.
Here economic, political,
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
25
2) Indirect Survey method : In this method the attitude & behaviour of the customers is predicted through salesman. Agents, whole sellers, retailers etc. 3) Comparing with Established Product :- At times the product under consideration is comparable to an existing product. So sales figures can be compared. 4) Limited Market Trial : Some times limited selling technique is adopted to product acceptance of the product. Forecasting for Established product is explained below. 1) Related information method : ( Forecast based on an index ) in this method which directly varies with the sales volume is found ( e.g. birth date is related information for the forecast of the sales of baby food & forecast is made ). 2) Market Research : Through critical analysis of the marketing forces, changing pattern of socio-economics pressures, political changes in style, attitudes, fashion etc, we can diet the future demands of the product. 3) Sales force composite method : ( Subjective opinion ) in this forecast, all the marketing & sales peoples ( Sales-man, traders middle men etc ) express their considered opinion of the volume of the sales expected in the future. These opinions are then collected & evaluated. 4) Jury of Executive Opinion Method : Here opinions of experts are invited about the sale in future. It is simple & fast but not scientific. 5) Projection Method : Based on the historical data, future can be projected to some extension. A line drawn through known information is projected into the forecast area to predict what the sales volume will be for future periods. Projection of future can be done either by time series Analysis or Correlation, regression Analysis tech. Time series Analysis : A time series is a chronological data which has some quantity such sales rupees, sales volume, prod. figures, imports, exports, number of passengers traveling by Air lines etc. as dependent variable & unit of time as independent variable. The movements or variations of the dependent variable may be Long period changes (Trend)
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
26
Short period changes ( Seasonal, cyclic, irregular ) Long period tendency of the data to increase or decrease is called secular or basic trend. A secular or long term trend refers to the smooth & regular movement of a series reflecting continuous growth, stagnation or decline over a rather long period of time.. We are chiefly concerned with the general tendency of data. As long as we notice an upward or down word trend movement in the data over the whole period, we coriclude secular trend. e.g. There is secular rise in agriculture production in India. Because of since last 25 year it has been found that except for a year or two, the production is increasing. Basic secular trend ( long term ) may be linear or non-linear. The important method of making inference about the future on the basis of what happened in the past is the analysis of time series. After analysing the time series plant production, finance, personnel, marketing etc. can be made to meet the variation in the demand. Time series is a multiplicative model of 4 – components. O=T × S × C × 1 T - Basic Trend, S – Seasonal fluctuations C - Cyclic fluctuations, 1 – irregular, Erratic, random, fluctuations. METHODS OF ESTIMATING TRENDS : 1. Methods of Inspection or freehand methods – Once the given time series data have been plotted on a graph paper, a line is drawn through the points which in statisticians opinion best describes the avg. long term growth. 2. Methods of Averages : a) Selected point method : Here the values are selected of the years which are considered to be the most representative or normal. Then a straight line is drawn. b) Semi-avg.method : Here data is divided into two equal halves & averages for each half is calculated. The avg. for half is taken to be representative of the value corresponding to the mid-point of the time interval of that half. Thus these two points determine the position of a trend line. The trend line can be extended to estimate future values or intermediate values. c) Moving Avg. methods : It is discussed later on. 3) Statistical methods : It is statistical analysis of past demand. It is most accurate method provided there is relationship between past & future. In fact past offers best basis for decision on future action. However one must modify the prediction form past data if he
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
27
knows that certain events will or will probably happen in future e.g. events like expansion of sales area, advertising, withdrawal of competitor etc, will tend to increase the sale. On the other hand events like entry of new competition, product becoming calculated will tend to develop sale. Such considerations should be reflected in new forecast. In statistical method we are going to consider following 3 cases. 1. Level demand with Random variation. 2.An Upward Trend with Random Variation. 3. Cyclic (Seasonal) Demand. General Approach To Statistical Forecasting : If we assume that use of statistical methods applied to past data is a realistic of forecasting future demands, we should then proceed as follows. 1. Make a plot of demand versus time. ( Demand as ordinate & time as abscissa). 2. Determine which statistical technique to try. 3. Evaluate the expected error. 4. Make a decision to use the technique under consideration or attempt to find a being one. Above approach is demonstrated by solving three examples below. Example 1. Level Demand With Random Variation. In this case demand remains essentially constant but super imposed random variation. The use of constant forecaster is generally adequate & appropriate. Demand data for 12 months is given as – Months
J
F
M
A
M
J
Demand (d)
90 111 99
89
87
84
J
A
S
104 102 95
O
N
D
114 103 113
Total 1191
Let up plot a graph between time and demand. From the graph it is clear that it is level demand with random variation about constant value of demand. Constant forecaster is given by – Arithmatic
avg.
−
d
=
Total demand No. of period
=
1191 12
=
99.25 units *
99 Units can be used as a forecasting function. That is we would forecast that demand will be 99 units for each of the next several months.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
28
We want to evaluate this method (arithmetic avg.) forecasting . This can be done by determining the standard error of estimation or standard deviation. −
s
∑ (d − d ) 2
=
=
n -1
1180 11
d
-
Actual demand
n
-
No of periods included
-
Avg. demand
−
d
=
10.4 units
The calculation are shown in tabular form. Month
d
−
Demand (d)
J
99
F
−
−
d−d
(d − d ) 2
90
9
81
99
111
12
144
M
99
99
0
0
A
99
89
10
100
M
99
87
12
144
J
99
84
15
225
J
99
104
5
25
J
99
102
3
9
A
99
95
4
16
S
95
4
16
O
114
15
225
N
103
4
16
D
113
14
196 −
1191
∑ (d − d) 2 − 1180.25
Now we can say that we are 95% confident that the demand in any month will lie between 79 and 119 units. 95% confidents means, in 95 month out of next 100 months demand will lie between 79 and 119. 95 % confidence limits =
Note :
99.7 % confidence limit
avg. demand ± 1.96 % deviation =
99 ± (1.96 x 10.4)
=
79 & 119 units. =
Avg. demand ± 3 std. deviation.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
And 68 % confidence limit
29 =
Avg. demand ± std. deviation.
Assumptions made:1.
Demand data studied for the periods are truly representative of the demand.
2.
The cause system was unchanged & unchanging during the period studied.
3.
Same cause system will continue to be operative for some time into the future.
Summary :Results of our analysis are – 1. Forecast is that the demand will be 99 units per month. 2. The std. deviation of demand is 10 units. 3. In 95 of 100 months we would expect demand to fall between 79 & 119 units. (at 95 % confidence level)
DEMAND
120 110 100 90 80 70 J
F
M A
M
J
J
A
S O
N
D
MONTH
LEVEL DEMAND WITH RANDOM VARIATIONS Example 2:- An upward trend with random variations : Data given & the calculations done are shown below. Months
Demand (d)
t
D1-19343
(d – d)2
J
199
1
196
9
F
202
2
199
9
M
199
3
202
9
A
208
4
205
9
M
212
5
208
16
J
194
6
211
289
J
214
7
214
0
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
30 A
220
8
217
9
S
219
9
220
1
O
234
10
223
121
N
219
11
226
49
D
233
12
230
9
Σd = 2553
Σt = 78
Σ(d-d)2 = 530
Σd
Plot the graph demand and time
240 DEMAND
230 220 210 200 190 J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
MONTHS AN UPWARD TRENDS WITH RANDOM VARIATIONS
Where, d1 – Predicted / estimated value of demand b=
6 [2
∑ dt − (a + 1)∑ d]
t = time (independent variable)
n (n 2 − 1)
−
− −
−
a = d − b t , d − Avg. demand, t − Avg. time −
∴d = b=
2553 = 212.75 12
6 [ 2 x 17030 - 13 x 2553 ] 12 (144 - 1) = 3.05 -
−
a = d− b t
= 212.75 − 3.05 ( 78 / 12 ) = 192.92 ≈ 193
Substituting values in eqn (1)
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
31
D1 = 193.00 + 3t ------------------------------eqn (2) Assuming that, liner forecaster is acceptable, we get forecasts for next years by substitute value of ‘t’ between 13 & 24 in eqn (2) These forecasts are tabulated below. Forecast by a liner forecaster. Months
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Period t
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Demand d1
233 236 239 242
245
248
251
254
257
260
263
266
Estimate of Error :- it is given by S
∑( d
1
=
− d11 )2
n−2
F = 2 is a degree of freedom as their are two yrs. Here, we require to find values of dl for that, substitute all value of time ( 1 to 12 ) in Eqn – (2) i.e. d1 = 193 + 3t ∴S =
560 = 7.3 12.2
We can expect that the future demand will full between d1 + 14 & d1-11 which confidence. 95 % confidence level = 1.96 × std. dev. = 1.96 × 7.3 = 14 Summary :1) The forecast demand will follow the regression line d1 = 193t + 3t. 2) The Std. error of our estimate is 7.3 3) In 95 of 100 months we expect the demand to be between d1 + 14 & d1 – 14 units. Again correctness of our forecast is a function of stability of the cause system. Example 3 : Cyclic (Seasonal) Demand :Date given & calculations done are shown below. Month
Demand(d)
T
Sin 10/6 t
Cos(10/6)t
d1
(d-d1)2
J
72
1
0.500
0.866
82
100
F
83
2
0.800
0.500
87
16
M
92
3
1.000
0.000
95
9
A
107
4
0.866
-0.500
103
16
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
32 M
114
5
0.5000
-0.866
110
16
J
129
6
0.000
-1.000
114
225
J
91
7
-0.500
-0.866
114
529
A
108
8
-0.866
-0.500
109
1
S
116
9
-0.1000
-0.000
101
225
O
79
10
-0.866
0.500
93
196
N
92
11
-0.500
0.866
86
36
D
93
12
0.000
1.000
82
121
Σ d1=1176
Σ(d-d)2=1490
Σ d – 1176 Cyclic forecaster is given by – d 1 = d + u cos
2k t 2k t + V sin n n
− − − − − −( 1 )
d’ = demand in future a= d values of ‘u’ & ‘v’ can be found from the determinant –
∑
d1
1
cos 2 π t n
sin 2 π t n
∑d
N
O
O −O
2πt d cos n
O
n/2
O
2πt n
O
O
n/2
∑ d sin
Subst. Values in determinant :2πt n
1
1176
12
0
0
− 98
0
6
0
− 19.8
0
0
6
cos
sin
2πt n
d'
=0
Divide 1176 by 12 to get value of ‘a’ Divide –98 by 6 to get value of ‘u” Divide -19.8 by 6 to value of ‘v’ ∴We get a = 98
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
33
u = -16.3 v = -3.3 πt πt − 3.3 sin − − − − − − − −(3) 6 6
∴ d1 = 98 − 16.3 cos
Forecast by Cyclic forecaster can be obtained by putting t = 1 to 12 in eqn (3). These values are shown below. Month
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Expected
82
87
95
103
110
114
114
109
101
93
86
82
demanded
S=
Std. error of estimation is
∈ (d 1 − d 1t ) 2
S = 12.7 d1 ± 1.96 x 12.7
Forecast at 95 % confidence level
d1 ± 25 units Summery :1) Expected demand will be d 1 = 98 − 16.3 cos
π t −3.3 sin π t 6 6 6
2) Std. error of est. of the demand is 12.7 3) 95 of 100 months, we would expect demand to be within ± 25 units
DEMAND
140 120 100 80 60 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
MONTH
CYCLIC DEMAND AND A CYCLIC FORECASTER
N
D
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
34 NOTE :-
When the demand data is given but the type of forecast (i.e. constant, linear or cyclic) is not given, then in order to decide which forecaster is to be used (i.e. constant, linear or cyclic), following method should be adopted. - Plot the graph between the given demand figures & the time months) - Observe the nature of graph. - Decide whether the demand pattern is constant, linearly increasing or cyclic. - Select & use the forecaster accordingly. - Otherwise all three forecasting functions (const, linear & cyclic) Should be applied to the given data initially & the forecasting functions yielding minimum standard error of estimation should be selected & used in future. Other methods of forecasting :1) Moving Avg. Forecaster :A moving avg. can be used as forecaster.( other than deciding the trend) The forecast is obtained by summing the data pts over a desired no of past period. Extending the moving avg. to include more periods increases the smoothing but decreases the sensitivity of forecast to more recent data. Each period, it new moving avg. is computed by dropping the demand for the most prior period & adding the demand for the most recent period. In some cases, the moving avg. method is advantageous, where as in others it not give rather inaccurate results Moving avg. is performed to eliminate periodic fluctuating time series. Period of moving avg – period of fluctuations ( length of cyclic movements in data ) Generally 3 – yearly, 5 – yearly, 7 & 9 yearly periods are taken to compute moving average. Ex. The following series relates to the production of a commercial concern of 8 yrs. Year
1974
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
Prodn
15420
14470
15520
21020
26120
31950
35360
356
Units Find the trend of prod”. Assume a 3 – year cycle and ignore decimals. Solutions :- Calculations of trend of prod” by the method of moving average.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
35
Year
Prod”
3 – yrly moving Total
3 yrly moving avg
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
1974
15420
-
-
75
14470
45410
15136
76
15520
51010
17003
77
21020
62660
20886
78
26120
79090
266363
79
31950
93440
31146
80
35370
102990
34800
81
35670
Advantages :1) It gives a fair good picture of general long term movement in data provided data contains uniform cyclic & if the trend in data is linear of approximate. 2) No personal prejudice & bias of the computer. 3) Cyclic fluctuations are completely eliminated if the period of moving avg is equilibrium to the period of cycles. 4) Simpler without fitting the curve. Disadvantages :1) Tendency to cut out corners which results in loss of data at the ends. e.g. 2 yrly cut 1 value 7 yearly – 6 values 3 yrly cut 2 values 5 yrly cut 3 values 2) No mathematical eqn. For forecasting. 3) Sharp turns in graph reduces to small curvatures. 4) Care is to be taken for data selection & period of moving avg. 5) Trend will accurate only if cyclic & irregular fluctuations are uniform both in duration & amplitude. 6) Tends to lag behind the trend.(means it gives lower values than regression line for an upward trend & vice-versa) 2. Exponential Smoothing Method:When a new observation is made after old forecast is completed (based on any method), then certainly there will be difference between old forecast & new observation.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
36
Therefore forecast can be revaluated for next observation, from old observation allowing an error. The correctness will be achieved by fraction of the error. ∴New Forecast = old Forecast + ∝ (Latest observation – old Forecast) Where, ∝
=
Smoothing Factor
=
0 to 1
Validity must be determined by an appropriate Moving Rang Chart:- ( For verification & Control of forecast ) It is designed to compare the observed values & predicted values of some demand the moving range is defined by MR
(d 11 − d 1 )
=
−
(d 11−1 − d 1−1 )
Avg.moving range is detmed by MR
∈ MR
∑ (n − 1)
−
The central line for M.R. chart is at 0 The control limits are UCL = + 2.66 MR ( Upper control limit ) LCL = - 2.66 MR ( Lower control limit ) The variable to be plotted on the M.R. Chart is – dt = d 11 − d 1
∆ d 1 = (d 11 − d 1 )
Control Chart :-
+ ve
Region A
Region B
Region C
UCL = + 2.66 MR + 1.77 MR + 0.89 MR Center line
(d’ – d) 0 -0.89 MR -1.77 MR LCL=-2.66 MR -ve Period
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
37
Verifying the const. forecasting of example 1 : Calculation for the M. R. Chart to verify the control given for forecasting. Month
Period ‘t’
Forecast d’
Demand (d)
(d1-d)
J
1
99
90
0
F
2
99
111
-12
21
M
3
99
99
0
12
A
4
99
89
10
10
M
5
99
87
12
2
J
6
99
84
15
3
J
7
99
104
-5
20
A
8
99
102
-5
2
S
9
99
95
4
7
O
10
99
114
-15
19
N
11
99
103
-4
11
D
12
99
113
-11
10
MR
∑MR = 117 n example No.1 We established d1 = 99 units as a forecaster. We shall new test its validity.
30 LCL = + 28.2
20 (d'-d)
10 0
-10 J
F
M
A
M
-20
J
J
MONTH
A
S
O
LCL = -28.2
-30 CONTROL CHART FOR EXAMPLE 1
∴ MR
=
∑ MR n −1
=
117 12 − 1
UCL
=
+ 2.66 MR
=
LCL
=
− 2.66 MR
= − 2.66 × 10.6 = + 28.2
= 10.6 2.66 × 10.6 =
+ 28.2
N
D
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
38
1) Of three successive pts, are two or more in either region A.? 2) Of five successive pts, are four or more in either region B.? 3) Are the eight successive pts, on either side of enter line ? All conditions are satisfied therefore the control chart indicates a stable cause system & establishers the validity of d1- 99 as a forecaster for ex.1 Controlling the forecast of Ex. L by Moving Range Chart :Controlling :- While controlling, when out – Of condition is observed, action relative to the forecaster or the demand should be taken. Actions regarding forecaster are – 1) Revise it including new cause system. 2) Wait for further evidence. But action of data or forecaster should be taken only after a consideration of all aspects of the cause system. An analysis of data alone would generally be insufficient. Actions regarding demand & its cause system are – 1) Changes in advertising 2) Changes in sales force 3) Changes in price etc. In Ex. 1 Our forecast was 99 units. We have already checked its validity on M.R. chart for absolute mini data. But the actual demand (sale figure) for seven month of next (second) year as under – Month
Period (t)
Demand (d)
(d1-d)
J
13
105
-6
E
14
89
+10
M
15
114
-15
A
16
109
-10
M
17
112
-13
J
18
107
-8
J
19
116
-17
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
39
Let us plot this data also on the 30
UCL = 28.2
20 10 0 -10 -20
LCL = - 28.2
-30 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
First Year
A
S
O
N
D
J
E
M
A
M
Second Year
J
CONTROL CHART FOR FIRST NINETEEN MONTHS
CONTROL CHART OF FIRST NINETEEN MONTHS Again the rest for out of control condition should be applied. By doing so we find out the point for period 19 indicates out of control conditions. Therefore new forecast the basis of 19 period should be established. Also new values of MR, UCL, LCL should be calculated. ∴ Avg. forecaster d
19.13 19
= 102
=
10.4
UCL =
27.8
1.77 MR = 18.4
LCL = − 27.8
0.89 MR = 9.25
& MR
S
=
10.4
Again prepare the fresh control chart for above values as shown below. From the control chart we shall conclude that d1 = 102 is better forecaster than d1= 99. We shall use new forecaster in future until we will find evidence for out of control condition in the control chart. So it is a continuous process.
J
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
40
30 20 10 0 -10 -20
First Year
Second Year
-30 J F M A M J J A S O N D J E M A M J J A S O N D
FINAL CONTROL CHART Points for period nos 20, 21, 22, 23 & 24 are placed in the above chart using the following given data. Months
Period (1)
Demand (d)
A
20
105
S
21
109
-7
O
22
93
9
N
23
110
-8
D
24
116
-14
Same procedure can be adopted to verify & control the linear forecaster & cyclic forecaster of Ex 2 & Ex 3 respectively. Q.No.1. Explain various types of forecasts. Q.No.2 . Define production forecasting. Q.No.3. Merits & demerits of ‘moving Avg. forecasting. Q.No.4. third moving range charts are helping in verification of forecasting. Q.No.5. Discuss the imp of sales forecasting for production scheduling. Q.No.6. What do you mean by Experimental smoothing forecasting. Q.No.7. Why it is necessary to revise the forecasts? How do you want of central conditions using is moving range chart. Q.No.8. Explain the forecasts based upon the averages. Q.No.9. What is the std. error of estimate. Q.No.10. Discuss the merits of Demerits of ‘Moving Avg forecasting.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
41
Q.No.11. For the forecasting of seasonal demand which method of forecasting you will suggest and why? Q.No.12. Problem on Regression lin [ ICM – O.P.] Q.No.13. What is the use of indicators and correlation analysis. Q.No.14. Application of production forecasting? Q.No.15. Which are the factors influencing on forecast? Q.No.16. Define ‘Avg. Moving Range’. How UCL of LCL are demerits decided in MR chart? Q.17. What do you mean by forecasting? Brief out the diff. forecasting techniques for established product and new product.
ARE YOU LOOKING FOR COACHING IN ANY SUBJECT IN PRODUCTION OR MECHANICAL ENGINEERING? THEN YOUR SEARCH HAS CAME TO END..........
CONTACT MR. RAJESH JARUDKAR
B.E (PRODUCTION), M.E. (MECHANICAL)
PRODUCTION DEPT. NOCIL AKOLA.MALKAPUR
ROAD, AKOLA℡ 453117
COACHING AVAILABELE IN FOLLOWING SUBJECTS FOR YOUR INTEREST AT NOMINAL CHARGES. o THEORY OF MACHINE o AUTOMATIC CONTROL o OPERATION RESEARCH TECHNIQUE o MACHINE TOOL DESIGN o DESIGN OF MACHINE ELEMENTS o ANY OTHER SUBJECT OF MECHANICAL OR PRODUCTION ENGG. GET YOUR OWN C.D. OF AUTOCAD + MECHANICAL DESKTOP WORTH OF Rs 100/- only . CONTACT AT 0724-422684 LEARN AUTOCAD+MECHANICAL DESKTOP IN JUST Rs 1000/- ONLY AT SIDDHIVINAYAK COMPUTERS, RENUKA NAGAR, DABKI ROAD AKOLA READY MADE SEMINAR AND PROJECT TOPICS AVAILABLE ONLY AT SIDDHIVINAYAK COMPUTERS AT MOST ECONOMICAL RATES. FOR PROJECT AND SEMINAR PRINTING THE MOST ECONOMICAL COMPUTER PRINTING CENTRE IN AKOLA CITY. SIDDHIVINAYAK COMPUTER LASER PRINTING Rs 5/- (3 COPIES) , INKJET PRINTING Rs 2/- PER COPY
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
42
ROUGH PRINTOUTS Rs 1/- COPY . SCANNING Rs 5/- diagram . SPIRAL BINDING Rs 15/- copy. Cd writting Rs 50/- per cd. Screen printing Rs 15/- per 100 copies.
3. PRODUCTION PLANNING 3.1 THE PURPOSE OF DATA SHEETS It is obvious that the elimination of waste or overloading of any of the resource industry, including materials, machines, methods and money as well as manpower depending on appropriate planning of the use of available resources and their efficient control during production phase, selling and their after related activated. Planning and control are essential activities to the rapid expansion of industry and employment. Control requires a particular pattern of activities to operate properly in a dynamic and imperfect world. It is difficult to improve because the behaviour of pattern of events difficult to understand and also because control have the emotional overtones associated with love of power and fear of being dominated. Therefore, it is essential to have a transferable for objectives analysis, as otherwise subjective emotions will present clear thinking on the desirable use of Techniques. It is for this reason that specific Data sheets are reputed to introduce a diagrammatic rotation for recording and studying planning and control inspection to shows that without such a representation any decision and discussion of control is obsortive. The Data Sheets thus aims at establishing a framework for the study and important of planning and Control so that working group which comprises of senior management technicians, supervisor, foremen, trade unionist, operations etc. have a common termination and set of ideas with which to analyse and discuss problems and install fruitful improvement. 3.2 THE PRODUCTION ORDER The Production Planning which constitutes the paper work leads finally to be in issuing the production orders. This is evidently very tedius and complicated matter preparing the production orders but essentially to be maintained. Such system cannot be application to other industries “as it is” because it is having a bearing of various aspects like size, and nature of manufacturing unit. With appropriate modification to some what extent it can be copied down from other one.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
43
Purpose :1. To pass information to everyone concerned. 2. To authorise. 3. To start the control system. 4. To provide basis data for evaluation of performance like schedule, quality and cost wise. Procedure :- To formulate the production and 1. Obtain all specifications like drawings, materials quality, quantity. 2. Outline the alternative methods of production and fix up the best one. 3. Determination of sequence of operations using process chart. 4. Find out the operation time required. 5. Prepare operation sheet with above data. 6. Work out production master program. 7. Prepare route cards and operation sheet. 8. Check out the available time on machine and prepare schedule of timing of production. 9. Machine loading charts for work distribution. 10. Prepare job cards, materials requisition cards, tools and drawing requisition, inspection and alt other belonging. Process charts :A process charts shows all the operation and the inspections of the process or procedure in their time sequence and the material or parts entering the process. The process chart is usually drawn at the commencement of the investigation, because fact finding should proceed from examination of the whole factory. ASME STD No.101, distinguishes between two types of process charts. 1. Operation process charts – Which constitute a general layout showing the principle operations and inspections, as well as the points at which the materials enters the process. 2. Flow process charts – Which represents a more detailed picture, describing the activities associated with materials, men or machines and which record the sequence of operations, transportations, inspections delays and storages that occur. The Advantages of Process charting :1. It is convenient means of presenting overall information on a factory in limited space and is a record for future reference.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
44
2. Detailed can be recorded on the chart in the factory when the job is observed, so that the chart relatives the mind of carrying. 3. It forces the analysis of work to be made in a quick and logical fashion according to (i) the sequence in which the work is done (ii) the materials or things which do the work (iii) the type of work done (iv) The relationship between several production flaws. 4. It is used to explain proposals for rationalising work and improving methods to the parties concerned. 3.3 PRODUCTION MASTER PROGRAM The prepare the production master program the operation process chart demonstration the final sequence of operation is required, the following figure shows as typical example of such program for the manufacturing product constituting eight sub-parts. After manufacturing the sub parts which will undergo various operation prior to final assembly. The program is based on the final delivery to be maintained and treated as zero base denoting the commencement of production by tails of the individual components on the charts by negative time units. Since master program, include the information about the type of machine required and time consumption of performance the operation in question. Such type of data is to be collected first alter studying the manufacturing drawings of completion of programming, the effect of sequencing on final schedule will be available. Case Study – The following are the sequence of operation. 1. All parts are produced. 2. Parts are grouped in sub-assemblies. I
A+B+C
II
D+E
III
F+G
3. Sub-assembly 1 is subject to an operation before further sub assembly 4. 1 + II 5. ( I + II ) is subject to an operation. 6. In the mean time, III + II are required 7. (III + II) is subject to an operation. 8. Final assembly takes place. Notations :A/1, A/2 etc operation required to produce part A M/52
- Machine on which operation A/1 is made.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
A
- assembly operation
Op
- Refers to one of the operation
45
A PRODUCTION MASTER PROGRAM 3.4 PRODUCTION PROGRAM FOR LONG TERM PLANNING The projects of quite a long time consumption like package units of boilers, cargo, and planes ship, building, sugar plants or and when special tooling and third party inspection is mandatory, production program for long term periods is to be prepared. The number of units to be undertaken can be governed by the number of cranes available, no. of rails for carries, no. of berths in ship building etc. Therefore, the quantity is limited by available capacity of plant and is the basis for preparing the production program and only those quantity of units will be started manufacturing concurrently. The first unit will be scheduled to come out of the production, taking into consideration the cycle time and special tools required. phasing period.
Tooling expenditure should lead the production program by a suitable
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
46
Skilled & specialized team will not start the work on all units concurrently but the work is phased out suitably to utilized the capacity of machines and team to the optimum.
A 25 – WEEK PRODUCTION PROGRAM FOR AIRPLANES
3.5 PRACTICAL PROGRAM IN PRODUCTION PLANNING On one side, We know sequence of operation with information about orders & for the product, on which production scheduled can be prepared. On the other side demand, operation that have to performed, kind of accuracy & skill they require manufacturing etc. determined the scheduling. The accomplish above, We have man, machine, methods and money so that achieve and match all above resources with maximum possible utilization of 4 MTS. Therefore the problematic areas are 1. Quality
-
Batch wise quantity to be period and rate of manufacture
2. Allocation
-
of work of machine and men to given array of task.
3. Scheduling
-
to avoid clash of sequence of operation or interference of procedure.
All above are interconnected problems because, time depends on machine capacity and other commitments, while optimum schedule can be prepared only after these allocation.
Therefore, before the advent of new batch production earlier production
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
47
sequence and schedule and prior commitment should be reviewed, delay in supply, break down in machine changes in market forecast on market demand and future (demand) trend in sales, all these will after on schedule and its review in inevitable to achieve the maximum profit level.
3.6 QUANTITY IN BATCH PRODUCTION Batch production is required when the rate of demand of product in the market is less than the rate of production or in other words, when the rate of consumption is less than continuous production rate. In view of matching both things, for some period, the production is stopped, during which the capacity of (unit) production line is utilized to produce the similar product or variety of goods in similar product or variety of goods in similar fashion. The interval between two production period is called production cycle which thus can be organised, in which each product is manufactured in determined quantities, corresponding to the total demand for it, throughout the cycle time. The best batch size or the production quantity is to be analysed for each product separately disregarding the effect of other products on scheduling to cone up the rate of demand. Secondly, the best master program for each product is to be set up to account of plant capacity and the effects of batch sizes on cycle time to achieve profit level. Production cannot be continued with the potential demand without no stock, position. Minimum stock level is to be analysed and maintain looking into delivery lead time, during purchasing the material. There is simple adv grapher lotted better level of the stock, Q against time (+) Assume
ap
-
Stock Building units/time
ac
-
Consumption, units/time
O-1
-
Production process during which stock Q1 is maintained with a uniform rate of ap units/time
0-Q4
-
Stock level when production stop
1-2
-
Variation in stock due to consumption at uniform rate of ae units/time
Tc
-
Consumption period
Same cycle will be repeated, unless it is decided to produce new lot of Q3, where in Tp & Tc period will differ, by the same proportion, from the corresponding values in preceding cycle. From ∆ 012, it can be formulated that
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
48 Q1 =
ap Tp
= ac Tp -----------
(1)
-----------
(2)
TP ac = =V Tc ap
V is ratio which measure the amount of time spend on one product during cycle. When V = Q3 no production is required or no time is required for production and is a problem of inventory only. In such orders given by stores are to be executed. Now the fact is that the consumption is continuous and when the production will resumes, the stock will not be available to feed the customer and supply from store will be stopped unless production starts promptly.
Therefore intimation is to be given for
production well ahead the stock becomes zero. The safety margin of stock should be determined in such a way that stock will start building up to a pre-determined level at the completion of the production period.
STOCK CONTROL WITH A BUFFER STOCK
Instead of restarting production at 2, when old stock is fully consumed a new stock level at point 3, is required and therefore production must start at point 2 where 22
production time required for accumulation of stock denoted by point 3. So Q0 is a
stock below which stock level should not fail. The other circumstances like setting time, additional delays, non availability of match & Machine etc., even production should start earlier at point 2”, accounting for this depend interval Td, stock level Q is at order is at order point. a p = ap − ac , because of shifting of horizontal axris upward by dis tan ce Q
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
49
t = Te Tp − is , int erval time available for other product
= Tc( 1 − V ) − lS
(3)
Qu = acTp , safety − stock , from ∆ 2 − 2 − 2 Qu ac = =V Q ap
(4)
As mentioned above, the actual stock level at which the order for production is given is higher than Qu and from equation. Tp Te
Qu Qu
ac ap
=
=
V
it can be show that
Tp + Td Td = 1× Tp Tp
(5)
If the delay period is negligible compared with the production period, the stock order point will be same, as the safely stock Qu A buffer stock is required to take care of possible stops or breakdowns in continuous production, whereas in batch production, the stock of each product have inevitably to be raised to a predetermined value prior to commencement of production of other items to low stock level will result into small batch and high set up cost/piece and high set up /piece from production point of view, high stock level is more desirable which lead to have carrying cost in the form of interest charges on capital investment, storage maintenance deterioration & breakage cost, the main factors affecting the selection of batch sizes to be summarised as under – 1) Consumption rate – ac 2) Production rate – ap 3) Set up cost of machines and sundry expenses to start run, s 4) Interest charges/piece/unit time 5) Average cost of storage including maintenance of stock, deterioration and breakages 6) Sales price – y 7) Production cost/piece – y 3.7 THE SELECTION OF BATCH SIZE Depends under minimum total production cost/piece which yield maximum profit and best performance due to tough competition, the final sales price should be reduced to such an extent that production that production at minimum cost, leaving only marginal profits is an inevitable policy. But when the circumstances does not allow to produce the
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
50
product at minimum cost, other factors will be responsible to compute the optimum size. The following four criteria will decide the policy for the selection of batch size. 1) Minimum production cost/piece 2) Maximum profit for a batch 3) Maximum ration of profit/cost of production (maximum return) 4) Maximum rate of return/unit time 3.8 MINIMUM – COST BATCH SIZE The production cost/piece consist mainly of four factors. 1) Constant cost per piece, e, which include material m, labour, i and overhead cost. C=m+1+O 2) Preparation costs, per batch which include drawings, planning, setting up of machines, equipment etc. Therefore, the cost per piece is S/Q. 3) Interest carrying cost paid on the money invest and in articles kept in stock. I = i.e. for one piece/unit time. The average level of stock during consumption period, Te, is ½ ( Q & Q ) Carrying Cost
( Q + Q ) 2
=
I
Tc
But Te = Q / ae , and dividing by Q =
1 (Q +Q ) Q × × ac Q 2
=
1Q Qu 1 + Q 2 ac
=
1 × Q (1 + y ) 2 ac
4) Storage carrying cost, including changes for space and persons, maintenance while in stock deterioration and breakage. If the average storage cost/piece are 13 per unit time, then for the consumption period Te, they are B × Te
or
BQ ae
Therefore, Total cost/piece = 1+2+3+4
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
Y
Y
Where K =
51 1 2ae
=
C
+
S Q
+
=
C
+
S Q
+
Q 2ae
=
C
+
S Q
+
KQ
Q
(1 + y )
{ I (1 + y )
+
+ 2B }
BQ ae (6)
(8)
1( 1 + y ) + 2 B 2ae
= Carrying Cost Equation (8) is having linear term for carrying cost k, and hyperbolic term for preparation cost as the only variable features of the function. Therefore, claim or high accuracy is hardly justified.
Moreover the batch production is a dynamic affair and
circumstances may rapidly change. Thus Y = C + Total annual variable cost (TAVC)
PRODUCTION COSTS PER PIECE
dy = d Qm
O
- S K
or
Qm =
or
S = K Qm Qm
S Qm2
-
+
K
2acs 1(1 + v ) + 2B
(9) (10)
That is total carrying costs per piece and the preparation cost per piece are equal, When Qm is produced, intersection of the two variable cost curves represents minimum cost/piece i.e., two terms of variable costs are equal at Qm. Once the values of S & K have determined the curve of two variables are plotted to locate Qm at the point of intersection which is more definable than the determination of minimum point on the shallow portion of curve.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
52
The minimum total production cost / piece Ym = C +
S + KQm Qm
(11)
2S =C + - C + 2 KQm Qm
HARRIS – CAMP FORMULA When the production period, Tp is comparatively short and storages changes, BTc or BQ / ae is small, a simplifies version of equation. 2 acS 1
=
QM
9(a)
INVENTORY FORMULA When production period, Tp is either relatively short, QM
=
2 acS 1 + 2B
9(b)
RAYMOND FORMULA Late Raymond studied the effect of variables on batch size determination. He concerned with the effect by dividing a batch into number of lots and the time involved in waiting between operation. His simplified formula published in 1930 is as under – QM =
2 ac S
1 2k 2b 1 12 F − V 1 − + V + 1 w 1 - N A h N
Where, F = a stock coefficient, Ratio of the average number of articles in the stock above Qo to the maximum number above Qo, for uniform consumption, 1 2
F
=
C
= Cost of piece in progress
ϑ
= Volumes storage space per piece
K
= a factor to take account of Work in Progress =
b
= Storage costs per m3 / unit time
h
= Average height which storage is permitted
N
= No. of lots in the batch
=
m
+
1 (L+O) 2
C1 1 m + c = C 2 C
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
A
= Time factor
=
1+(N–1)
53
( Time for first operation in batch ) ( Total process time for first lot )
3.9 THE PRODUCTION RANGE It can be well determined the minimum cost batch size which can be targeted for production. But in fact, the production schedule cannot be prepared satisfactory to have these ideal batches only. Therefore, the batch size with 1 limit can be used to have the desired flexibility while attempting the scheduling of the batch. Naturally, total production cost per piece above the cost required while producing Qm, is to be allowed. Then it is possible to deviate from Qm to either side and select convenient batch size which will not increased in production cost y, above predetermined value. In order to find the numerical value of two limits QI and QII, we shall first define a non-dimensional ratio p as under – p=
y−c Variable Cost = y m - c Minimum Variable Cost
(15)
A convenient measure of increase in cost above Ym
Q1
Qm
Batch size THE PRODUCTION RANGE Function may be written as
Q11
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
54 =
C
+
( y − c)
=
C
+
( y − c) × ( y m − c) ( y m − c)
=
C
+
P ( y m − c)
=
C
+
P
=
C
+
2S p Qm
C
−
S Q
Ym − C
=
2 KQm and substitute in ( 15 )
Y
S + KQm Qm
Find out QI & QII, we use Y
p
p
or
2p
−
−
KQ
S Q + KQQm Qm
=
S / Q + KQ 2 KQm
=
1 2
Qm 2 Q + QQm Qm
=
1 2
Qm Q 1 1 + = × + q Qm 2 q Q
1 2
Θ
s = pm k ( 18 )
1+ q2 q
or
q2
or
q = p ± p2 − 1
or
QI = Qm p − p 2 − 1
2 pq
+
1
=
0
(19)
and QII = Qm p + p 2 − 1 (20) Equation (19) is a non-dimensional expression the tolerance on the production rate using dependant on the allowable increase in variable cost e.g. When P
Q1
Q11
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
1
1
1.01
.808
1.05
55
-13.2%
1.152
+15.2%
-27%
+37%
-36%
+50%
DETERMINATION OF THE PRODUCTION RANGE The desirable degree of flexibility in selecting batch size will be ascertained for the likely increase in variable cost, while scheduling the number products. Effect of p on production cost In earlier analysis c is neglected.
But if, the ratio
cons tan t cost per piece is var iable
considered, the effect of p on y will be reflected. Hence the ratio
KQm is defined for a C
particular under given circumstances, then µ
C KQm
=
=
C S / Qm
Larger value of u the Y affected by p is Y C
=
2 kQm C
+
1
P,
(21)
KQm is carrying cost/piece when Qm is produced. Or
Y C
Or
Ym C
Increase in costs
2p u
+
1
1
+
2 u
(22)
(23)
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
56 ∆y c
or
=
2p 1 + u
=
2 u
∆y Ym
−
−
( p −1)
ξ
2 1 − u or
p −1 ( 1 / 2 )u
=
c( p − 1 ) ( 1 / 2 )u
=
p −1 ( 1 / 2 )u + 1
×
1 c(1 + 2/u) (24)
When the ratio u is large, the slight increase in p is unlikely to cause a noticeable change in y, total production cost, thus caving room for a wide production range to be defined, while when the ration u is small, the reverse is the case. The graph stating the relation between ξ and u with p as a parameter is plotted as shown.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
57
INCREASE IN COSTS PER PIECE
3.10 MAXIMUM PROFIT BATCH SIZE It is a fact profit for whole batch is dependant on the no. of pieces in a batch. As total cost per piece rise slowly beyond Qm, it is authenit to conclude that with marginal increase in Qm will yield rise in profit. Too much rise in Qm will release without profit or declination in profit per piece due to higher carrying cost. If Q pieces are produced at the costs of y per piece and say that sales price is Y, the profit per batch is Z
=
Q(y–y)
(25)
The profit is denoted by the shaded rectangle being the difference between money earn (
Y1 Q ) and the cost of production ( dz dQ
When Substituting Or
C +
S Q
S
Q
1
Or
S + KQ 1 − 2 KQp = 0 Q
d ( Qy ) dQ
+ KQ 1 and Y = C +
+ KQ 1 − ( 2QK + C ) = 0
C +
Q
S
−
d ( CQ + S + KQ ) = 0 dQ
Or
1
y1
=
O
y1 = C +
+ KQ 1 −
1
=
Y Q ). The maximum profit is achieved
S + KQ Q
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
58
BATCH PROFIT, SHOWN BY SHADED RECTANGLE. Batch profit shown by shaded Area where Qp is the batch size yielding max profit. Therefore
2
KQp
=
Qp
=
S Q
KQ 1
+
Q1 2
+
Q1 2
2 kQ 1 Qm 2 2Q 1 Qm 2
=
or
+
S
=
Qp
1
[Qm + Q ] 1
Q 1 Qm
= Qmp 1 p1 =
Qp = q Qm
(27)
as p1 & 1 and therefore batch are giving maximum profit is larger than Qm Conclusion :1) Batch size should be more than Qm to obtain maximum profit. Constant cost content is relatively high. 2) Set up time per piece is to be reduced. 3) Schedule become smooth and un –interpreted for a long time during which production methods are improved to save labour cost, materials and overhead. 4) If the methods are not improved or is not subjected to change, the higher production cost per piece will be incurred for Qp. 5) If pricing policy is not fix, Qp is not desirable. 6) Due to length stocking, turnover shows down of capital.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
59
7) More money is required to produce Qp. 8) Large time to recover the profit. 3.11 MAXIMUM RETURN The profit returned after making the investment for the production run of a batch may be poor or best. Such evaluation of performance does not depends only on the absolute figure of the profit. But it is linked with the figure of overall investment required. The ratio of the profit to the cost of the production run indicates the return n on the investment. The cost to produce the batch is η
Qy and the return
Where
=
Z QY
=
QY 1 − QY QY
=
Y1 − 1 Y
(28)
Y1
-
Sales price per piece.
Y
-
Production cost per piece
If Y and Y1 are substituted by equation (22) η
The return
=
Y1 = − 1 Y u + 2 p1 = − 1 u +2p =
The return is maximum when η max =
(p
1
)
−p p +(1 / 2 )u
P - 1
p1 − 1 C where u = 1+1 / 2 u KQm
efficiency index =
η η max
p1 − p 1 + 1 / 2 u − × p −1 / 2 u p 1 − 1
(30)
When η is active return with η max return when batch of Q is produced. The η will be affected by p, p1 and u. Out of which η is more sensitive to (p1-p) 3.12 MAXIMUM RATE OF RETURN
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
60
The time factor is of great importance hen turnover of the capital is considered. It would be desirable to achieve the same return, in a short period. A high rate of return can be achieved only if stock level is kept to minimum and replenished by small batch quantity. This batch size is termed as economic batch size which yield maximum rate of return and is much smaller than, Qm, minimum cost batch. Brief out the maximum rate of return and the empirical method suggested by FE Raymond and P1 Norton to compute Qe, The smaller batch will entail higher production cost per piece, but this will require for less capital. Raymond proceeded to find this method by using his formula for Qm. Modified by introducing f1 instead of 1, Where the factor f proper conservation of capital as he put it, the value of f as suggested by Raymond is f
=
1+ 2
f + l
( f / i )2 [ 2 ( b f ) / h )][1 − ( 1 / N )] 1+
Where
i f
2K y A {1 − y [1 − ( 1 / N )] }
- rate of interest paid on capital - rate of return on capital excluding interest rate.
The maximum rate of return yields somewhere at the middle of Qm – Qe. This batch can be computed by the same method except that the factor f is f = 1 +2 r/1 A similar method was advocated by PT NORTON, who presume 1 = Total interest paid, as well as taxes, insurance etc. The desired rate of return on capital Qe
=
Where N
2 Qe S N ( r + i ) C + 2 B (1 − λ
)
=
Number of working days.
r
=
desired rate of return
i
=
taxes, insurance etc.
b
=
storage cost per piece per day
In this method 1) The interest is related only on the constant production cost, C and not to the total production cost, y 2) The desirable value for the rate of return can be selected. In practice the fixed sales price is difficult to maintain and it depends on the following conditions. i) Conditions prevailing in the market.
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
61
ii) Changes occur due to competition. iii) Preparedness on behalf of customer to pay iv) Batch size available 3.13 (ANALYTICAL METHOD) – ECONOMIC BATCH SIZE The find rate of return in terms of sales price production cost and batch size Rate of return R
n Tc
From equation (1) R =
1 Tc
Y1 − 1 Y
Tc =
Q , then ac
ac Q
Y1 −1 Y
−
( 31 )
The maximum rate of return is obtained when
Or
-
d dQ
dR = O dQ
Y1 1 − ac = O Qy Q
Dividing by ac and multiplying by Q2 Y2
(
)
d y 1 yQ − y 2 Q = O dQ
Now
d = ( yQ ) − y 2 dQ
y1
or
d ( YQ ) =d dQ
(32)
S C + + KQ Q from equation ( 8 ) Q
[
= d CQ + S + KQ 2
]
= C + 2 KQ
or
y 1 ( C + 2 KQ ) = ( C +
or
C2 +
S2 Q
2
+ K 2Q 2 +
S + KQ ) 2 Q 2 CS + 2 SK + 2 CKQ = y 1C + 2 KY 1 Q Q
Substitute Q = Qc, for economic batch size K 2Q 2 − 2 KQe ( Y 1 − C ) + ( C 2 + 2SK − Y 1C ) +
2CS S 2 + −O Qc Qc
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
62 Multiply by Qe 2
K 2Qc 4 − 2 KQc 4 ( Y 1 − C ) + ( C 2 + 2 SK − Y 1C ) Qc 2 + 2CS Qc + S 2 − O
Now p 1 =
Y 1 −C Ym − c
(33)
(Y 1 − C ) = P 1 2 kQm
or
[
]
K 2 Qe 4 − ( PKQm ) 4 KQe 3 + ( 2 SK ) − ( 2 p 1 KQm )e Qe 2 + 2CSQe + S 2 = O
Divide throughout by K 2 Qm 4 Qe 4
−
Qm 4
4 p 1 K 4 Qm Qe 4
+
K 2 Qm Qm 4
2Qe 2
SK
Qm 2 K 2 Qm 2
−
p 1 KQmC K 2 Qm 2
+
2CSQe K 2 Qm 4 Qm
+
S2 K 2 Qm 4
=O
Substitute Qe C ,u = KQm Qm
q =
Then, S S 1 1 P 1C 2 − −q+1= O q 4 − 4 p 1q 3 + 2 − q + 2u − − K Qm2 K Qm2 KQm
or q 4 − 4 p 1 q 3 + 2 ( 1 − up 1 ) q 2 + 2up + 1 = O or
4 p 1 q 3 + 2 q 2 p 1u = q 4 + 2 q 2 + 2uq + 1
or
p1 = q 2
[( q
2
(34)
]
+ 2 + 1 / q 2 + 2u / q ) 2q [2 q + u ] 2
p1 =
( 2 p ) 2 + 2u / q 4 p 2 q + 2u = 2( 2q + u ) 2q( 2 q + u )
p1 =
2 p2q + u q( 2q + u )
2 p 1 q 2 + p 1uq − 2 p 2 q − u = O
or
2 p 1q 2 + ( p 1 u - 2 2 p ) q − u = O
(35)
P is function of q in the quadratic equation. As p varies slowly with q the equation can be solved by stages. In first care, take p = 1 and then the correction is introduced for p by using equation (18) It is finite in practice. If an extreme case is taken where u equation (35) reduce to up 1 q − u
=
or
u( p 1 q − 1 )
or
q =
1 p1
0 =
0
- - - - - - - - - - - (36)
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
63
when u = 0 2 p 1q 2 − 2 p 2 q = O
or
q=
p2 p1
- - - - - - - - - - - (37)
Therefore, the solution for q lies between the value obtained by equation (36) and (37) and, Qe = q Qm Example The minimum cost batch size is known to be 2000 pieces. Find Economics batch size when sales price yields a factor p 1 = 1.4 Solution: Step 1 q= p=
1 p1
=
1 == 0.71 1.1
Step II −
Step III
1 ( 0.8 + 1 ) = 1.025 2 0.8
1 ( q +1) 2
1 − (.71 + 1 ) = = 1.06 2− .71
+1) 1 − ( 0.8 = 1.025 0.8 2
-
1 .75 + 1 2 .75
= 1.04
Corrected Value ( 1.025 ) 2 ( 1.06 ) 2 = 0.75 q= = = 0.8 1.4 1.4 p1 p2
( 1.04 ) 2 = 0.77 1.4
This shows that the real value of q lies between 0.71 depending on the magnitude of u, if u is high – q will be nearer to 0.71, u is small to 0.77 Take q = 0.73, Qc = q, Qm = 0.73 × 2000 = 1460 pieces Another method for finding out Qc is to plot a graph between p1 and q with u as parameter. The curve will be non-dimensional lies between two limits where u = o 2 u = is important, since it reflects on Qm, when selling price increases.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
64
NON-DIMENTIONAL CURVES FOR COMPUTING THE ECONOMIC BATCH It is clear form both the graphs that lowering the set up cost, s will reduce the economic batch size, both because q becomes smaller, owing to reduction in u and because Qm is smaller. It is interesting to study the variations in rate of return when a batch size is selected convenient basis for comparison would be Qm R
n Te
=
nm Qm
Rm =
Hence
R Rm
=
n Q
=
n nm
×
ae ,
When Qm is produced
ac ×
Qm Q
=
n nm
×
1 q
(38)
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
As
65
n < 1, it is clear that the batches larger than Qm will adversely affect the rate of return. nm
FEATURES :1] Less capital is tied up. 2] The cost function is steep and far more sensitive to batch size 3] Production time is reduced and does not imply to improve the production technique as in case of long runs. Set uptime increases. Non productive time increases.
COMPARISON OF THE VARIOUS IMPLICATION TO BATCH SIZE Presuming the results for Qm as 1000 au i) Variable cost factor p, equation (18)
5, p1 1st the effect of batch size on
ii) Production cost per piece, y
iii) Cost per batch
iv) Profit
v) Profit/Cost of production
vi) Rate of Return
Can be calculated as under and depicted on graph as shown Effect of Selecting a lot size q
p
y
Qy
y1 − y
y1 − y Qy
R
0.5
1.25
107.1
53.6
18.8
35.1
70.2
0.73
1.05
101.4
74.1
63.9
86.2
113.4
0.8
1.025
100.7
80.6
75
93.1
116.4
1.0
1
100
100
100
100
100
1.1
1.005
100.1
110.1
108.6
98.6
89.6
1.3
1.034
101
131.3
119
90.6
69.7
1.6
1.113
103.2
165.1
114.8
69.6
43.5
1.8
1.178
105.1
189.2
99.9
52.8
29.3
2
1.25
107.1
214.2
75
35
17.5
1.36
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
66
SOME EFFECTS OF SELECTING BATCH SIZES 3.15 EXERCISE 1.
(i) Show that when a batch Q is produced, the ratio of profit to that which might
result, if Qm were produced is Z Z mm
p1 − p
,= q
p1 − p
(ii) When this ratio becomes a maximum (iii) Given p1 = 1.4, plot the change of
Z with q Z min
Solution :Q ( y1 − y )
=
Z
Zm = Qm ( y 1 − ym ) Z Zm
pt =
or
or
q
y 1 − ym
y1 − c ym − c
Z = q Zm p1 −
y1 − y
Q Qm
=
= q
y 1 − ( C + 2 kQm )
or p 1 ( ym − c ) − y 1 − C )
p 1 ( y m c ) − 2 KQm. p p 1 ( y m − c ) − 2 KQm
2 KQ m P ( ym − c )
p1 -
y 1 − ( C + 2 kQmp )
2 KQm ( Ym − c )
Ym = C + 2 KQ m , substituting
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
or
Z Zm
=
p1 − p
q
p1 − 1
67
(i)
When P = 1, Zm will be maximum 2.
(ii)
A product for which it is know that u = 4 is produced in a quality which result
increase of 6% of the variable costs above the minimum. What increase of total cost.
Solution : I Method
II Method
K = 1.06 Km C = y 4 = C + 2 K Qm KQm Ym = C + 2 Km Qm 4 2 = + 0.12 0.12 =
6 = 50 0.12
P=
Y −C = 1.06 , Ym − C
The increase in the production cos t , due to deviaion from Qm is given by
ξ=
P −1 1. − 6 − 1 0.06 = = 1/ 2u +1 2+1 3
% increase in total cos t above Ym % ξ = 2% =
1 × 100 = − 2% 50
Prove that Qe is smaller than Qm d ( YQ ) = C + 2 KQ dQ S = y − − KQ Q Hence Substitute in ( 32 ) S Y 1 = Y − − KQ = Y 2 Q
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
68 S
or Y r = Y −
Q
− KQ = Y 2
Since y r > y it follows that S > KQe Qe
as already shown, at the point of minimum cost S= or
KQm Qm
S S < , KQ for Q > Qm and > KQ for Q < QM Q Q
Hence Pr oved .
http://coeta-production .tripod.com
4. MACHINE CAPACITY INTRODUCTION The industrial revolution resolved in to the major changes in the technical conditions of production processes, established with the physical capacity of the operators. Earlier, there were flexible relationship between attendant and his machines. Mass scale production cultivate the structure of jobs and the related work processes. The proper division of work, machines, processes etc. has come into picture to measure the rating of production and productivity concept has been conceived. The idle time means the unproductive period and naturally the relation of attendant with machine has to synchronized to achieve the maximum output. The exercise of machine loading is to be excentated for fixing up the quantities of product to be undertaken for manufacturing, by observing the definite quantity of orders or by computing batch size. To accomplish the task the basic data like. 1. The breakdown of operations and sequence of operations. 2. The period of production run. 3. The type of processes involved, and 4. The available machines. are required, in addition to the operation sheets. Therefore this is an assignment for the production engineers, after the receipt of the production program will be displayed in the graphical form, calls as bar chart, demonstrating the target period to produce the product. Machine leading is to be prepared in view of the above requirement taking into consideration
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
69
the capacity of the machines. This information will be separately carries on machine loading card individually, indicating the condition and capabilities with main specifications of machine, the prior commitment etc. This chapter deals with the work analysis of operator with machines i.e. The relationship between productivity and nonproductive time, the assessment time, the assessment of the processes, process or machine capacity, the relationship between machine capacity and plant capacity, the factors impeding the machine output etc. 3.2 MACHINE OUTPUT : The machine output is nothing but the rate of production in number of pieces per unit time.
Generally, the machine output is restricted to mass production by ordinary
machines, automatic or semiautomatic machines where the sequence of operations are in definite form. Therefore, machine output is inversely proportional to (unit) time cycle. Output of machine = Or Qm =
1 CycleTime , in min utes
60 , number of units produced hour ------------- (1) T
Where QTu = Theoretical machine output T = Cycle time of production in minutes. In other words, the max output of machine is obtained when the cycles time is optimum (minimum possible) and when the further reduction in process cycle time is not possible. This can be applicable, even if, the operator is handling more than one machines and the idle time of machine is preferably zero during cycle time. Sometimes, this can be achieved by altering the sequence of operations. The length of the cycle time is constituted by the attendance period add machine working time. Thus the cycle time is determined by the total activity time, even through, the concurrent activities by single operator exits. This can be elaborated as under – If, T, cycle time
=
0.2 min (unloading) + 0.6 min.
(Inspection) + 0.3 (min) loading + 0.7 min (M/c running) + 0.2 (min) (Walking between m/c) = 2.0 minutes and the theoretical output would be. Qm =
60 = 30 units per hour 2
Say, the inspection activity can be diverted to some-other supervisor, then the cycle time can be shortened by 0.6 minutes to 1.4 minutes, and the theoretical output
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
70 Qm =
60 = 42.8 units per minutes. 1.4
Now further curtailing of process cycle time is only
possible, if the period in loading, unloading and machine is possible. If, we think of activity chart, the various periods involved can be classified as under: 1. Independent Activity, 1 2. Concurrent Activity, a 3. Idle time, i The idle time may be of machine in or operator, i.e. The independent activity means the activity which is not dependent on machine or the activity of each partners not dependent or each other i.e. Machine & operator. Concurrent activity means the activity can be performed by more than one partners, each of which is contributing, his time and efforts to achieve the worth object. Idle time denotes that the partner is awaiting to other to complete his task. The cycle Time,
T = a + t +im,
If im, = 0, then
T=a+t
In every case, attempt is to be made to reduce the cycle time to minimum, and this can be achieved generally by the following Methods :1.
ENSURE no idle time for partner of longest activity by
i) Changing or altering the sequence of various tasks ii) Eliminating delays and stopages at the end of every cycle. 2.
REDUCE : The independent activity time by
i) Increasing the running speed of machine, rate of feeding, better cutting tools & lubrication etc.ii) Selecting the machine of improved design of the existing machines in better conditions. iii) Transfer of part of operation to the other machines and appointing another operator to take care of part operations. REDUCE : The concurrent time by i) Using better gigs for feeding, loading, setting, inspection etc. or better methods. ii) Starting the machine operation and then performing the preparatory task. iii) Using automatic unloading systems. In spite of all above exercise, in actual practice, the output tends to fall down below the theoretical output, QTh due to various things like delays between cycles, necessary adjustment, repairs, sudden breakdowns, improper too and tacklets failures in power supply etc. Therefore,
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
Q
=
∝ QTh,
Where
Q < ∝ <
71 1
Where ∝ is a coefficient that describes quantitatively the discrepancy between the theoretical and actual output litners. 3.3 MULTI MACHINE SUPERVISION BY OPERATOR : In modern, days the machines are either automatic or semi automatic and sometimes with the automatic loading and unloading attachment and therefore a limited amount of attention is required on such as loading, unloading, inspection, setting and minor adjustments during operation. Therefore, it is quite possible to put more than one machine under the supervision of one operator. The machines and the operator becomes work centre and operator attends all machines in accordance with certain determined sequences which ensure maximum possible utilisation of production cycle. Just like, in the operation of handlonas, the operator is working with predetermined sequence of operation and whenever required the some operator is attending the break of threads also. For further elaboration, consider a typical example that an operators is busy in loading (0.3 min) and unloading (0.2 min) between 2 minutes of operations of machine. Thus the operators is busy for ¼ times of complete operation cycle of 2 minutes. Now, the question remains that how many machines can be attended by operator. If we assign two machine operator becomes idle for 1 minute and if 5 machines are allocated, then machine become idle for 0.5 minutes i.e. Quarter of cycle time. Therefore with 4 machines perfect matching will be obtained and no idle time being incurred with on the part of operator or the machines. But perfect Machining is not always possible. However, if the case of perfect matching is considered, then machine time is t and the preparation time (preparatory work) is ‘Q’, T a + t, then, number of identical machines that can be attended by one operator. n1 =
a +1 a
---------------------- (2)
But during the case of not perfect matching i.e. when n, is not an integer and we have to select either (n) or (n + 1) m/cs where n < n1 1, Choose ( n + 1 ) machines Y n +1 < 1, Choose ( n ) machines
On the above discussion, and deterministic conditions, the allocation of machine to one operator, when Yn/Yn+1=1, can be depicted as under –
ALLOCATION OF A NUMBER OF MACHINES TO ONE OPERATOR (UNDER DETERMINISTIC CONDITIONS) Where n1 is plotted against ε with n as a parameter, so that for known values of n1 and ε the number of machines to one operator can be found out. The curve is rather flat which means that the solution is quite insensitive to changes in ε. This can be described further from the following numericals, say
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
74 ε = 0.8 a = 1.2 min T = 6.9 min ′− a + 1 T 6.9 = = 5.75 then select n 5 a 1.2
n1 =
But 6 machines can be selected when ε = 5.5 3.3.1 AMOUNT OF RELATIVE IDLE TIME :The selection of n or (n + 1) m/cs can result into relative idle time, which amount can be calculated as under operator idle time i00 = i0 T
=
Or
=
T - na
=
T - na T
= 1−
=
1− n
(cycle time) – (Operator time)
a T
n n1
When (n + 1) machines are chosen, operator is fully busy and idle machine time exist. im =
(n +1) a -T/per each cycle i m ( n + 1 )a − T = T T = ( n + 1)
a −1 T
( n + 1 ) = − 1 − n1
These two expressions can be methodically continue together into general equation. i T
=
1
−
n n1
− − − − − − − − − − − − (6 )
if n ≤ n1 M/cs taken, i ≥ O, is the operator idle time if n ≥ n1 m/cs are taken, i ≤ O, is the machine idle time. This can be represented on graph when n machines are assigned to operator, what will be time, as under :Now all above analysis does not cover for so many noteworthy factures like :i) Inspection of machine ii) Inspection of the product
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
75
iii) Subsequent work for product like removing machine marks polishing, greaging matching or assembling several components. iv) Talking v) Movement of product from machine of production centre and again to machine. vi) Personal allowances like relaxation etc. 3] Machine interference :- When practicing the cycle time due to random changers, machine will interface with each other. All above allowances will increase the independent time & output will be hampered to great extent.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011 12 1314 15
RELATIVE IDLE TIME WHEN ASSIGNING N MACHINES TO ONE OPERATOR
3.3.2
MULTI
ALLOWANCES
MACHINE
SUPERVISION
CONSIDERING
OPERATOR
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
76
Suppose the above maintained allowances for operators independent activity is b minutes for machine. Then the operator’s activity per m/c = (a + b) and machine work cycle = (a + t) Hence, The number of machines for perfect matching n
=
a+t a+b
−−−−−−−−−−−− (7)
a = Preparatory work (preparation time) t = Machining time n = No. of machine b = Operator independent activity in minute. When n 1 is not an integer is neighbouring whole numbers may be considered, like 1
m 1
Three will be 3 – changes in TC as listed above, 1. Z cd = Direct saving in Cost over the time unit 2.
ZCr = Ordering cost or set up cost KX o
3. ½ KXo C (1-d) Cc = Carrying cost for K Xo order size The acceptance of discount will be advantageous, only when TC of units ordering K Xo minus Direct Saving in cost should be less than the minimum TC, when Xo units are ordered. Z Cr K X o C (1 − d ) Cc Z Cr X 0 C Cc + −Z C d = + 2 2 K Xo Xo
Substituting the optimum value of Xo = Z Cr K
2 Z Cr , we get C Cc
C Cc + 2ZCr
K Cc C (1 − d ) 2
2 Z Cr - Z Cd C Cc
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
118
1 K
or
2 Z Cr x C Cc
C Cc + 2 Z Cr
≤ Z Cr
Z Cr Cc + K (1-d) 2
≤
Z Cr C Cc 2
≤
2 Z Cr C Cc
C Cc 2
Z Cr C Cc - ZCd 2
Z Cr C Cc 2
+
1 + k (1 − d ) ≤ 2 Cr C Cc + Z Cd k
or
4 Z Cr C Cc + Z Cr C Cc
2 Z Cd Cr Cc
≤ 2+d
2Z C Cr Cc
≤ 2+d
2Z C Cr Cc
Put
Q
2 Z Cr CCc
=
ZCZ , for Convenience Cr Cc
1 + k (1 − d ) ≤ Q d + 2 K
Then
1 + k2 (1-d) – Q dk – 2 k ≤ 0
Or
Analogus (1-d) k2 – (2 + Qd) k + 1 ≤ 0 (2 + Qd ) ±
∴K =
(2 + dQ) 2 − 4 (1 − d ) 2 (1 − d )
We want k to be as large as possible, and the break even point for any, discount, is given by deleting –ve valaue ∴ K =
(2 + Qd ) ±
(2 + dQ ) 2 − 4 (1 − d ) 2 (1 − d )
Thus for any given values of Cc and Cr, table can be prepared for breakeven value of K.like Ce = 0.12 per year, Cr = Rs 10, we have Breakeven value of k Cz
D 0.01
0.02
0.05
1000
1.901
2.458
3.991
5000
2.521
3.576
6.642
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
10000
2.986
119 4.446
8.78
Where Cz = Rs demand value for the value If the amount which must be ordered to obtain the discount Z K, X then discount after should be accepted, otherwise, the usual Xo units should be ordered. Ex. A Contractor has a requirement of cement that amount to 150 bages per day. No shortages are allowed. Cement cost Rs 120 per bag. Holding cost is Rs 2 per bag per day cost Rs 150 to process an order. Find i)
Optimal lot size
ii)
Minimum Procurement level i.e. Recover point, if lead time is 3 days
iii)
Calculate total system cost day
iv)
Sketch out the inventory process.
SOLUTION :i) Xo =
2Z Cr = C Cc
2 × 150 × 150 = 2 × 120
150 × 150 = 13.69 120
ii) Procurement level = 150 x 3 = 450 bags iii) T E S C = 18,000 +
= 150 x 120 +
2 Z Cr C Cc
2.150 .150.120.2
= 21,286.335 Rs per day iv)
Inventory in mm Times in days Ex A Company uses a special bracket in the products which an orders from outside suppliers. The appropriate data are Demand
2000 per annum
ordering Cost Rs 20 per order Carrying cost 20% of item price
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
120 Basic item price Rs 10 per bracket.
The company is offered the following discounts on the basic price. For order Quantity
400 – 799 less 2%
800 – 1599 less 4% 1600 and above 5% It is required to establish the most economic quantity to order SOLUTION :2 × 2000 × 20 = 200 brackets 10 × 0.2
EOQ
=
2 Z Cr CCc
Q
=
2Z C , for Convenience Cr Cc
-
Break Even value of K
2 × 10 × 2000 = 31.62 20 × 2
2 × 10 × 400 = 44.72, 4
5× 800 = 63.24
5× 1600 = 89.41
Z
200
400
800
1600
d
02
0.04
0.05
400
2.55 × Xo=510
897
800
2.99 × Xo=598
1600
3.58 × Xo=716
200
1125
1330
C Z > K Xo C accepted SECOND NUMBER Order Qty
Xo – 200
400
800
1600
Discount
-
2%
4%
5%
Avg No of orders
10
5
2.5
1.25
Saving in orders
--
5
7.5
8.75
Saving p.a.
--
100
150
175
Price Saving
--
400
800
1000
500
950
1175
Per item p.a. Total Gains Avg Cc p.a. Additional Cost -Incurred
200
392
768
1520
192
568
1320
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
121
Net Gains
--
308
382
--
Net loss
--
--
--
145
DYNAMIC INVENTORY UNDER RISK :It can be Characterised as under – (a)
The under stock Cost, Cu is opposing directly, Cc, Carrying cost of reserve stock neglecting over stock cost.
(b)
The ordering cost, Cr, directly proportional to the carrying cost, Cc
(c)
The time lag is taken explicity into account.
GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS :1. There is a possibility of executing number of orders. 2. There is known probability distribution of demand. 3. This probability distribution is in terms of some interval of time. 4. The ordering cost is involved 5. Also carrying cost is involved 6. The under stock cost is involved 7. Whereas overstock cost is involved but in most of cases neglected, being a period involved of unlimited nature. BASIC KINDS OF CONTROL SYSTEM :There are two controllable variables. 1. Frequency of ordering 2. Amount to be ordered We are not sure about the Varying the frequency of ordering. These two possibilities results in to two systems. Fixed order quantity system (Two bin system) Base stock Q-system : This system has a fixed order size and let the frequency of ordering be determined by the fluctuation in demand. Some quantity of stock is to be ordered out, keeping in mind the time lag between order and delivery. Whenever the stock on hand falls to this minimum level be given order is immediately placed. This system is in use of for a long time and so called as two bin. System i.e. two bins are provided for each item, theoretically. Often, the second bin will be used after finishing the item from first one and fresh order is placed.
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
122
The major disadvantage of this system is that it requires continuous perpetual auditing of the inventory on hand. Q – System – Has 1. Fixed order size 2. Varying order period, due to fluctuation 3. When the stock on hand falls below the predetermined level, the order is placed i.e. placed the Min stock level. 4. There is a time lag between order and delivery. 5. No need of Buffer stock (Reserve Stock) 6. Average order period =
Demand in Average in time Fixed order size
On the above characteristics the optimal system is discovered. To find out the solution or desired policy. Use optimal lot size formula for Average demand which will give optional number of orders and fixed order quantity i.e. Dynamic-certainly case Xo =
2 Z Cr CC c
Separately determine the optimal reserve stock during lag period by the method of static inventory – under risk. FIXED ORDER PERIOD (FIXED INTERNAL):In this – P system, the order period is determined by analysis and then the item in inventory is reviewed. The order quantity will vary in accordance with the active inventory. The total size of order will be different after adding the seasonal the
demand with
average inventory. If the central stock record is maintained it become very to fix up the order quantity after periodic review. If we have an average order period of t weeks then (i) Ordering Cost
=
52 Cr t
(ii) Carrying cost for Average demand =
+ D, C.Cc Where 104
D = Demand / year Z = Average Weekly demand = D
(iii) Carrying cost for safety reserve W C Ce where
W R
= safety reserve during lead time = Average demand in lead period
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
123
(iv) Out of stock per year =
52 K × f ( y ) dy 1
R+W Where K = fixed out of cost ∴ Total cost, TC = i + ii + iii + iv =
52 Cr t D CCc 52 K + + W C Cc + f ( y )dy t 104 t
R+W Equation (19) must be minimized by differentiating w. r. to t & w to equal too dTC = CCc dW
,
−
52 K t
f
(R + W )
=
0
Equation these two equation and solving by iteration (3 Nos) for t, we get. (f (R + W)2
=
2 C Cc (Cr + K (1 − F ( R + W )
DK 2
------
20
P – System – Has :1. Fixed order period 2. Varying order size 3. Order amount will be determined 4. If order period is less than lead time, then units on hand plus units on order but not received is to be considered. 5. Fluctuation in demand will be taken care by stock carried forward. 6. Whereas, Reserve stock is to be neglected during a period of lead time. ∴Total Cost, TC = 1) Yearly ordering cost + 2) Yearly Cc for the stock to meet average demand + 3) Yearly Cc of reserve + 4) Yearly out of stock cost Here, we are assuming that the demand distribution is known for a basic one week period. If
Z
=
Average weekly demand
LT
=
Lead time
X
=
Order quantity
=
order period in weeks.
X --
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
124
The demand distribution for this number
of weeks
plus the LT is
convolution of the basic distribution. 1 + ET Z
F
f
( y ) dy, to the
1 + ET Z
Convolution of the basic demand distribution. Then, TC
f 52 Z Cc X C Cc 52 Z K + + tc Cc + f + LT x 2 X 6
=
1 + ET Z
=
( y)
dy
----- (21)
Z +r
CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY 1. Emerging role of the paint industry in improving human health 2. Role of software in Chemical Engg. 3. Xylitol Technology CIVIL ENGINEERING 1. Advanced composite materials an alternative to reinforcement, tendons and cables 2. Drainage problems related to irrigation in Maharashtra 3. Fly ash sand lime brick - an alternative walling material 4. Latex modified SFRC beam-column joints subjected to cyclic loading 5. Reinforced earthwork approach embankment using kologrid for rob at Murtijapur 6. Reinforcement detailing in non engineering and engineering earthquake resistant structures 7. Simplified CPM/PERT simulation model 8. Vaastu-shastra & its importance in residential building COMPUTER ENGINEERING 1. Groupware technology 2. Parallel processing in LINUX ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING 1. Application of superconductivity in electric power system 2. Cardiac pace-maker 3. Design of voltage regulator 4. Eco-friendly energy sources for rural development 5. Electric earthing and shock 6. Emission levels of a two-stroke S.I. Engine with in-cylinder fuel injection 7. Energy conservation in industry 8. Energy saving in home lighting 9. Future trends in technology for locomotive traction 10. HVDC transmission lines 11. Hydrostatic transmission for shunting locomotives 12. Internet & netsurfing 13. MHD-power generation 14. Mini Romag generator
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
15. Recycling of plastics 16. Selecting transformers for hydro power plants 17. Solar energetics in space 18. Substation ELECTRONICS ENGINEERING 1. Computer numerical control 2. Electronic multipoint fuel injection system 3. Fibre optical sources & detectors 4. Logic analyzer 5. Operation & temperature maintenance of Xerox Machine 6. Programmable logic controller 7. Radar system 8. Remote control system 9. Satellite tracking system 10. Smartcard ASIC 11. Surface mount tech. 12. Wireless app protocol 13. Wireless network communication POLYMER TECHNOLOGY 1. Du pont fibre 2. Effect of electric field on structure property of polymers 3. Fluidized bed for catalytic polymerization 4. Manufacturing of PU foams 5. Polymers used in artificial joints 6. Reactive extrusion 7. Self healing plastic 8. Shoe sole manufacturing tech 9. Thermoplastic composites TEXTILE ENGINEERING 1. Application of it in textile 2. Bale management 3. Energy saving through spindle oil in ring frame 4. Fabric quality inspection 5. Furnishing & industrial application 6. The ABC of denim production PRODUCTION, MECHANICAL & AUTOMOBILE ENGINEERING 1. A solar chimney power plant 2. Air car 3. Air caster-a new approach in material handling 4. Aluminium space frame 5. Automated hydraulic control systems 6. Automatically guided vehicle system 7. Automobile air conditioning 8. Basic technology & drive system of industrial robots 9. Benchmarking 10. Buffering of serial production line
125
126
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
11. CADCAM-Revolutionising the aircraft industry 12. Caged ball technology 13. Catalytic converter in diesel engine 14. Components of missile 15. Computational fluid dynamics 16. Crash safety 17. Cryogenic treatments of different metals 18. Cybernetics in industry 19. D.M.D. Technique 20. Design innovation through digitalisation 21. Droplet welding 22. Electro-hydraulic proportional control valve 23. Emission levels of two stroke S.I. Engine 24. Energy conservation in industries 25. ERP - An Indian case study 26. Experimental setup & assembling of car for lab. Development 27. Flying train 28. Flywheel spin in electric vehicle 29. Future trends in technology for locomotive traction 30. Green refrigeration 31. Helical gear manufacturing by extrusion 32. Holography 33. How to achieve fuel economy in automobile 34. How to run a small scale industry 35. Human factor in product design 36. Hybrid electric vehicle 37. Indian industry in a liberal market 38. Industrial corrosion & it’s prevention 39. Industrial research & development 40. Internal controls 41. Internet and netsurfing 42. Job analysis 43. Liquid-fuel rocket engine 44. LPG as alternative fuel for two wheelers 45. Machine vision system 46. Maintenance management 47. Motivation 48. Networking technologies 49. Occupant safety restraint devices in automobile 50. Physical facilities 51. Poka Yoke 52. Productivity improvement 53. Rapid prototyping 54. Recycling of plastic 55. Risk and forecasting 56. Robotization of forging industries 57. Round printing machine 58. Sensotronic brake control
P r od u c ti o n P l a n n in g An d C on t r o l
127
59. Solar power vehicle 60. Sophisticated programmable industrial robotic arm 61. Statistical process control 62. Strategic about manufacturing 63. Study of pull boring machine 64. Supply chain management & its implementation by ethics value system 65. Technological options for future manufacturing 66. The global positioning system 67. Waterjet cutting PRINTED FORMAT 68. Re- Engineering A Potent Tool in Managing Change 69. Challenges to industrial organisation & management 70. Pattern making 71. Vehicular pollution poisoning air in cities 72. Use of plastic as a tooling material 73. Use of robot in automobile manufacture 74. The engine of a sport car 75. Total productivity maintenance (TPM) 76. Screw Compressor bearing failure on process plant 77. Advanced control techniques for automobile exhaust pollution 78. On development of an electronically controlled copying lathe 79. Hydrostatic transmission for shunting locomotive 80. Environmental awareness and aluminium industry 81. Management information system 82. Cooling fans of air cooled DEUTZ diesel engines and their noise generation 83. Automotive emission control 84. Automation of injection moulding machine used hydraulic systems 85. Air oil cooling method for hard turning process 86. Packaging Technology 87. Investigation of factors affecting wear characteristics in rubber - metal sliding contact 88. Industrial psychology 89. Management of change and taskforce approach 90. Managerial effectiveness - key to productivity 91. New turns in thread cutting 92. Precision hole making by deep hole drilling method 93. Pricing Strategy - An introduction 94. Rotary ultrasonic machine 95. Ways towards the heavy duty diesel 96. Industrial problems solving through Japanese techniques 97. Robotisation of forging industry
SIDDHIVINAYAK COMPUTERS
0724-422684
PRINTING RATES 5/- (3 COPIES) LASER PRINTOUTS
Rs 2/-PAGE FOR INKJET PRINTING Rs 5/- DIAGRAM (SCANNING)
128
P r od u c ti o n P lan n i n g A n d C o n t r o l
SPIRAL BINDING Rs 15/- PER COPY
CD WRITTING Rs 50/- CD. ROUGH PRINTOUT Rs 1/- COPY. SEMINAR PROJECT AND THESIS WORK FAX INTERNET – EMAIL SCREEN PRINTING/ D.T.P. CD WRITTING MARATHI / HINDI PRINTING TRANSPARANCIES (O.H.P.) PRINTING (COLOUR AND BLACK AND WHITE)
