Problemas Resueltos de Teoría de La Decisión

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

Hfhroioia 2

Hfhroioia 3 Xgd hkprhsd mh dviÿgiod hstä igvhstibdgma ld pasieilimdm mh jderiodr y oakhroidlizdr ug guhva kiorapraohsdmar matdma mh igthlibhgoid odsi gdturdl pdrd las dviaghs mhl jutura. Hl prayhota rhquihrh ld oakprd mh ug sajisodma ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg, a eihg ld oagtrdtdoiÿg mh käs igbhgihras, aevidkhgth ld hkprhsd sh rhshrvd ld apoiÿg mh ga mhsdrralldr hl pramuota. Hl guhva pramuota puhmh thghr ugd doabimd jdvardelh a mhsjdvardelh hg hl khrodma, oag ugd doabimd jdvardelh hg hl khrodma lds vhgtds hstikdmds dlodgzdrëdg las 8>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs, par hl oagtrdria, si ld doabimd mhl khrodma ga juhsh jdvardelh lds vhgtds hstikdmds shrëdg mh 5>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs. Hl prhoia mh vhgtd mh las kiorapraohsdmarhs hs mh 5>> huras odmd ugimdm. Hl oasth mhl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg hs mh 5.>>>.>>> mh huras, kihgtrds quh hl mh oagtrdtdr y jarkdr d las guhvas igbhgihras dsoihgmh d 4.>>>.>>> mh huras. Hl oasth mh jderiodoiÿg prhvista hs mh => huras odmd ugimdm si sh jderiod sig ld dyumd mhl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg, y mh 4> huras si sh jderiod oag miocd dyumd. Ld praedeilimdm mh quh hl guhva kiorapraohsdmar rhoied ugd doabimd jdvardelh par pdrth mhl khrodma hs mhl 8>%. 4. _ubihrd ld mhoisiÿg quh mheh takdr ld mirhooiÿg mh ld hkprhsd hg edsh d ld dpliodoiÿg mhl orithria mhl vdlar hsphrdma. 5. Mhthrkigh pdrd qué rdgba mh praedeilimdmhs mh khrodma khrodma jdvardelh mheh oakprdr hl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg. ?. _h cdg mhjigima lds vhgtds jdvardelhs oaka lds quh dlodgohg lds 8>.>>> ugimdmhs. Hs praedelh quh miocd oijrd shd mhkdsidma apkistd, cdllh hl vdlar par hl quh odkeidrëd su mhoisiÿg y oagtrdtdrëd käs igbhgihras. _aluoiÿg =9

hg

päbigd

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

Uhsaluoiÿg mh las praelhkds

Hfhroioia 3 Xgd hkprhsd mh dviÿgiod hstä igvhs igvhsbdgma bdgma ld pasieilimdm mh jderiodr y oakhroidlizdr ug guhva kiorapraohsdmar matdma mh igthlibhgoid odsi gdturdl pdrd las dviaghs mhl jutura. Hl prayhota rhquihrh ld oakprd mh ug sajisodma ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg, a eihg ld oagtrdtdoiÿg mh käs igbhgihras, aevidkhgth ld hkprhsd sh rhshrvd ld apoiÿg mh ga mhsdrralldr hl pramuota. Hl guhva  p ramuot  ramuota a puhmh thghr ugd doabimd jdvardelh a mhsjdvardelh hg hl khrodma, oag ugd doabimd jdvardelh hg hl khrodma lds vhgtds hskdmds dlodgzdrëdg dlodgzdrëdg las 8>.>>> kiorapraohsdmar kiorapraohsdmarhs, hs, par hl oagtrdria, si ld doabimd mhl  khrodma ga juhsh jdvardelh lds vhgtds hskdmds shrëdg mh 5>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs. Hl prhoia mh vh vhgt gtd d mh las las kior kiorap apra raoh ohsd sdma marh rhss hs mh 5>> 5>> hura hurass od odmd md ugim ugimdm dm.. Hl oa oast sth h mhl mhl oh ohgt gtra ra mh suphroakputdoiÿg hs mh 5.>>>.>>> 5.>>> .>>> mh huras, kihgtrds quh hl mh oagtrdtdr y jarkdr d las guhvas igbhgihr igbhgihras as dsoihgmh d 4.>>> .>>> mh huras. Hl oasth mh jderiodoiÿg prhvista hs mh => huras odmd ugimdm si sh jderiod sig ld dyumd mhl  ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg, y mh 4> huras si sh jderiod oag miocd dyumd. Ld praedeilimdm mh quh hl  guhva kiorapraohsdmar rhoied ugd doabimd jdvardelh par pdrth mhl khrodma hs mhl 8>%. 4. _ubihrd ld mhoisiÿg quh mheh takdr ld mirhooiÿg mh ld hkprhsd hg edsh d ld dpliodoiÿg mhl orithria mhl  vdlar hsphrdma. 5. Mhthrkigh pdrd qué rdgba mh praedeilimdmhs praedeilimdmhs mh khrodma jdvardelh mheh oakprdr oakprdr hl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg. ?. _h cdg mhjigima lds vhgtds jdvardelhs oaka lds quh dlodgohg lds 8>.>>> ugimdmhs. Hs praedelh quh miocd oijrd shd mhkdsidma apkistd, cdllh hl vdlar par hl quh odkeidrëd su mhoisiÿg y oagtrdtdrëd käs igbhgihras. _aluoiÿg6 4. _ubihrd ld mhoisiÿg quh mheh takdr ld mirhooiÿg mh ld hkprhsd hg edsh d ld dpliodoiÿg mhl orithria mhl vdlar hsphrdma ^dsa 4 - Hgukhrh lds mijhrhgths dlthrgdtivds mh mhoisiÿg.

Oakprdr ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg. Oagtrdtdr käs igbhgihras. Ga mhsdrralldr hl guhva pramuota.

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

^dsa 5 - Hgukhrh pdrd odmd ugd mh lds dlthrgdtivds mh mhoisiÿg, las hstdmas mh ld gdturdlhzd dsaoidmas d ld kiskd. Dlthrgdtivds Oakprdr ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg Ga mhsdrralldr hl guhva pramuota Oagtrdtdr käs igbhgihras

Hstdmas mh ld gdturdlhzd Khrodma jdvardelh Khrodma mhsjdvardelh

Khrodma jdvardelh Khrodma mhsjdvardelh

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

^dsa ? - Hxplioith hl äreal mh mhoisiÿg.

^dsa = - Dsibgh lds praedeilimdmhs d priari mh odmd uga mh las hstdmas mh ld gdturdlhzd.

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

^dsa 8 - Odloulh hl ehghjioia mh odmd ugd mh lds rdkds mhl äreal.

Igbrhsas6

Hg hl odsa mh khrodma jdvardelh6 8>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs x 5>> huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; 4>.>>>.>>> huras.

Hg odsa mh khrodma mhsjdvardelh6 5>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs x 5>> huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; =.>>>.>>> huras.

Oasths mh jderiodoiÿg6

Oakprd mhl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg y hl khrodma jdvardelh6 8>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs x 4> huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; 8>>.>>> huras.

Oakprd mhl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg y khrodma mhsjdvardelh6 5>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs x 4> huras/kiorapraohsdmar huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; 5>>.>>> huras.

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

Oagtrdtdr käs igbhgihras y hl khrodma jdvardelh6 8>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs x => huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; 5.>>>.>>> huras.

Oagtrdtdr käs igbhgihras y hl khrodma mhsjdvardelh6 5>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs x => huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; 3>>.>>> huras.

Oasths jifas6

Oakprd mhl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg ; 5.>>>.>>> huras. Oagtrdtdoiÿg y jarkdoiÿg guhvas igbhgihras ; 4.>>>.>>> huras.

Hl ehghjioia mh odmd rdkd la aehgh rhstdgma las bdstas mh las igbrhsas6 Ehghjioia si oakprd hl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg y hl khrodma hs jdvardelh6 4>.>>>.>>> ‟ 8>>.>> ‟ 5.>>>.>>> ; 2.8>>.>>> huras.

Ehghjioia si oakprd hl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg y hl khrodma hs mhsjdvardelh6 =.>>>.>>> ‟ 5>>.>>> ‟ 5.>>>.>>> ; 4.3>>.>>> huras.

Ehghjioia si oagtrdtd käs igbhgihras y hl khrodma hs jdvardelh6 4>.>>>.>>> ‟ 5.>>>.>>> ‟ 4.>>>.>>> ; 2.>>>.>>> huras.

Ehghjioia si oagtrdtd käs igbhgihras y hl khrodma hs mhsjdvardelh6 =.>>>.>>> ‟ 3>>.>>> ‟ 4.>>>.>>> ; 5.5>>.>>> huras.

^dsa : - Uhsuhlvd hl äreal mh mhoisiÿg mh mhrhocd d izquihrmd. Mdma quh ld htdpd jigdl hs praedeilistd mheh dpliodr hl orithria mh ld hsphrdgzd kdthkätiod oag hl aefhva mh mhthrkigdr hl ehghjioia hsphrdma mh odmd dlthrgdtivd mh mhoisiÿg.

(2.8>>.>>> x >,8) + (4.3>>.>>> x >,8) ; =.:8>.>>> huras. (2.>>>.>>> x >,8) + (5.5>>.>>> x >,8) ; =.:>>.>>> huras.

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

Oalaquh las rhsultdmas oarrhspagmihgth.

hg

hl

äreal

mh

mhoisiÿg

hgoikd

mhl

guma

Uhsuhlvd ld htdpd dgthriar. Mdma quh hstd prikhrd htdpd hs mhthrkigistd y quh las vdlarhs quh cd odlouldma sag ehghjioias, mheh hlhbir ld dlthrgdtivd ouya ehghjioia shd kdyar y oalaodr hl rhsultdma hgoikd mhl guma oarrhspagmihgth. Hg edsh dl orithria mhl vdlar hsphrdma, ld mhoisiÿg quh mheh takdr ld mirhooiÿg mh ld hkprhsd ld mh oakprdr hl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg, hsphrdgma aethghr ug ehghjioia mh =.:8>.>>> huras.

5. Mhthrkigh pdrd qué rdgba mh praedeilimdmhs mh khrodma jdvardelh mheh suphroakputdoiÿg

oakprd  r

hl ohgtra mh

Hl äreal mh mhoisiÿg hs hl kiska mhl dpdrtdma dgthriar, sihgma hg hsth odsa p ld praedeilimdm d priari mh quh ld mhkdgmd mhl khrodma shd jdvardelh y (4 ‟ p) ld praedeilimdm d priari mh quh ld mhkdgmd shd mhsjdvardelh.

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

Uhsuhlvd shbuimdkhgth hl äreal mh mhoisiÿg. Mdma quh ld htdpd jigdl hs praedeilistd mheh dpliodr hl orithria mh ld hsphrdgzd kdthkätiod oag hl aefhtiva mh mhthrkigdr hl ehghjioia hsphrdma mh odmd dlthrgdtivd mh mhoisiÿg. (2.8>>.>>> x p) + (4.3>>.>>> x (4 - p)) (2.>>>.>>> x p) + (5.5>>.>>> x (4 - p)) Igthrhsd oakprdr hl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg sihkprh quh hl ehghjioia hsphrdma mh oakprdr mioca ohgtra shd suphriar dl mh oagtrdtdr käs igbhgihras y dl mh ga mhsdrralldr hl guhva pramuota6 (2.8>>.>>> x p) + (4.3>>.>>> x (4 - p)) 7 (2.>>>.>>> x p) + (5.5>>.>>> x (4 - p))   p 7 >,=== (2.8>>.>>> x p) + (4.3>>.>>> x (4 - p)) 7 >   p 7 > Igthrhsd oakprdr hl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg sihkprh quh ld praedeilimdm d priari mh khrodma jdvardelh shd suphriar dl ==,==%.

?. _h cdg mhjigima lds vhgtds jdvardelhs oaka lds quh dlodgohg lds 8>.>>> ugimdmhs. Hs praedelh quh miocd oijrd shd mhkdsidma apkistd, cdllh hl vdlar par hl quh odkeidrëd su mhoisiÿg y oagtrdtdrëd käs igbhgihras

Hl äreal mh mhoisiÿg dsë oaka lds praedeilimdmhs d priari mh odmd uga mh las hstdmas mh ld gdturdlhzd sag las kiskas mhl prikhr dpdrtdma mh hsth hfhroioia. Mhjigihgma ZH oaka lds vhgtds jdvardelhs, las ehghjioias hg hsth odsa sag6

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

Igbrhsas6

Khrodma jdvardelh6 ZH kiorapraohsdmarhs x 5>> huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; 5>> ZH huras

Khrodma mhsjdvardelh6 5>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs x 5>> huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; =.>>>.>>> huras

Oasths mh jderiodoiÿg6

Oakprd mhl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg y khrodma jdvardelh6 ZH kiorapraohsdmarhs x 4> huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; 4> ZH huras

Oakprd mhl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg y khrodma mhsjdvardelh6 5>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs x 4> huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; 5>>.>>> huras

Oagtrdtdr igbhgihras y khrodma jdvardelh6 ZH kiorapraohsdmarhs x => huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; => ZH huras

Oagtrdtdr igbhgihras y khrodma mhsjdvardelh6 5>.>>> kiorapraohsdmarhs x => huras/kiorapraohsdmar ; 3>>.>>> huras

Oasths jifas6

Oakprd mhl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg ; 5.>>>.>>> huras Oagtrdtdoiÿg y jarkdoiÿg guhvas igbhgihras ; 4.>>>.>>> huras Ehghjioia mh odmd rdkd mhl äreal6 Ehghjioia si oakprd hl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg y hl khrodma hs jdvardelh6 5>> ZH ‟ 4> ZH ‟ 5.>>>.>>> ; 49> ZH ‟ 5.>>>.>>> huras

 

^raelhkds rhsuhltas mh tharëd mh ld mhoisiÿg

Ehghjioia si oakprd hl ohgtra mh suphroakputdoiÿg y hl khrodma hs mhsjdvardelh6 =.>>>.>>> ‟ 5>>.>>> ‟ 5.>>>.>>> ; 4.3>>.>>> huras

Ehghjioia si oagtrdtd käs igbhgihras y hl khrodma hs jdvardelh6 5>> ZH ‟ => ZH ‟ 4.>>>.>>> ; 4:> ZH ‟ 4.>>>.>>> huras

Ehghjioia si oagtrdtd käs igbhgihras y hl khrodma hs mhsjdvardelh6 =.>>>.>>> ‟ 3>>.>>> ‟ 4.>>>.>>> ; 5.5>>.>>> huras

Uhsuhlvd shbuimdkhgth hl äreal mh mhoisiÿg. Mdma quh ld htdpd jigdl hs praedeilistd mheh dpliodr hl orithria mh ld hsphrdgzd kdthkätiod oag hl aefhtiva mh mhthrkigdr hl ehghjioia hsphrdma mh odmd dlthrgdtivd mh mhoisiÿg.

((49> ZH - 5.>>>.>>>) x >,8) + (4.3>>.>>> x >,8) ; 98 ZH 4>>.>>> ((4:> ZH - 4.>>>.>>>) x >,8) + (5.5>>.>>> x >,8) ;

3> ZH + :>>.>>> Oagtrdtdrëd oudgma6

käs

igbhgihras

3> ZH + :>>.>>> 7 98 ZH ZH - 4>>.>>>  ZH < =:.:::,::

Oagtrdtdrëd käs igbhgihras =:.:::,:: kiorapraohsdmarhs

oudgma

lds

vhgtds

jdvardelhs

shdg

igjhriarhs

d