PHAST Presentation[1]

Risk Management Software

DNV PHAST Professional

OBJECTIVE DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Safeguarding life, property and the environment

International Network and Staff DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Europe 2800

Americas 550 Asia 400 Africa & Arabia 75 Australasia 75

Risk Assesment Software

DNV Pro

DNV-Pro

SAFETI PHAST

PHAST

SAFETI

DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Commonly Used Definition of RISK DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

The likelihood of a specified undesired event occurring within a specified period or under specified circumstances

Risk Management DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

1. Identify Hazards 2. Postulate Accidents

3. Evaluate Consequences

Options to Mitigate Consequences

No

4. Estimate Frequencies

5. Risk Summation

Risks Controlled? Yes Optimise Options to Manage Risks

Options to Decrease Frequencies

No

DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Hazard Identification DNV-Pro

Event Frequency RiskSpectrum ETRA LEAK VEREDA WOAD OREDA

Consequence Modelling PHAST QRA SAFETI NEPTUNE

Identification of Hazards DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Perform technique for identifying Hazards - “Process Hazard Analysis” • • • • • •

Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOPS) Checklists “What-If” Analysis Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) Safety Audits Historical Record

All recorded with DNV-Pro for ease of producing actions and recommendations

Identification of Hazards - II DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

DNV-Pro provides: • • • • •

Templates for HAZOP and other PHA recording Suggested Guidewords and Deviations Fully User Customised Can import many different types of study formats Numbering and Assignation of Recommendations

DNV-Pro is a consistent and reliable aid to saving time and improving the quality of Hazard Identification

Evaluation of Consequences DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

We need to assess any possible Flammable, Explosive or Toxic Effects from releases of Liquids and/or Vapours. DISCHARGE TERMS

GAS DISPERSION / POOLS

FLAMMABLE & TOXIC EFFECTS

Evaluation of Consequences - II DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

PHAST gives us the ability to look at the following aspects of various types of accidental releases of a hazardous material • Mass release rate of material • Liquid pools that are formed and evaporate • Gas dispersion under four different air entrainment regimes • Fire effects (Jet fires, pool fires, flash fires, BLEVEs)

Evaluation of Consequences - III DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

•Explosion •Toxic

Effects (Confined and Unconfined)

Effects (Probits, ERPG Levels, IDLH Levels)

•Modelling

for different weather conditions

•Graphical

display of results on maps

Estimation of Frequencies DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Can use historical failure rate data and modify if necessary to account for a specific plant. Failure Frequency Data Sources: • • • • • •

Published Works (Lees, CCPS) OREDA WOAD Electrical/Nuclear DNV Your Organisation!

Estimation of Frequencies - II DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Modification of Generic failure rate data can involve: • Factoring individual failure causes e.g. corrosion, external impact • Allowing for socio-economic effects • Fault Tree Analysis • Management Systems Audit

SAFETI - Risk Summation DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Software for the Assessment of Flammable, Explosive and Toxic Impact

SAFETI combines the Consequences (How Big?) and Frequencies (How Often?) of the Hazards to determine the Risk. SAFETI also takes into account: • Distribution and vulnerability of local population • Meteorological data (wind speed/direction/stability) • Location of any ignition sources

Impact Calculations DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

CONTAINMENT VESSEL

Impact Calculations - II DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

DISCHARGE

Impact Calculations - III DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

DISPERSION

Impact Calculations - IV DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

NIGHT TIME

Impact Calculations - V DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

IGNITION

Impact Calculations - VI DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• Wind Direction • Speed / Stability Categories

• Day / Night • Time dependent ignition •Various risk indices •Every case modelled

SAFETI - Risk Summation DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Output from SAFETI is in the form of • Contours of Individual Risk • Societal Risk Curves • Ranking of Risk from each Failure Scenario

Risk Contour Plot DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Upper Heathcote Persil Township

Lower Heathcote Mooring System

FERTILIZER FACTORY

10

-6

10 -7

10 -8

Whitnash Selsey

BAY OF BOSHAM

Framework for Risk Criteria DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

HIGH RISK

Maximum Tolerable Criterion

INTOLERABLE

TOLERABLE IF ALARP (as low as Reasonably Practicable)

LOW RISK

Desirable Target NEGLIGIBLE

Cost Benefit Analysis DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

The use of a measure of loss (life, production, asset loss or environmental damage) to measure the benefit of various available options. Helps to use investment effectively and efficiently. It can also save money by stopping over-protection of some items.

Risk Reduction and Cost Benefit DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

3.00E-03

80 70

2.50E-03

60 2.00E-03

50 40

1.50E-03

30 1.00E-03

20 10

5.00E-04

0 0.00E+00

-10 Base case +Opt. A

A+B

AB+C

Average Individual Risk

ABC +D

ABC D+E

ABC DE+F

Cost (US$000,000)

Risk Analysis Tools DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• Complex risk analyses require undertaking a large number of calculations and the efficient handling of large amounts of information • Can not be done manually • Assistance of suitable software packages is essential

DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

The Project QRA SCOPE

HAZARD IDENTIFICATION PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT

CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT

RISK PROFILE RISK COMMUNICATION

DECISION MAKING

CALCULATION EFFORT REQUIRED

The Project

DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

ANALYST’S EFFORT

QRA SCOPE

HAZARD IDENTIFICATION PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT

CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT

RISK PROFILE RISK COMMUNICATION

DECISION MAKING

Software allows more time for decision making and defining the scope

DNV Risk Management Software DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• Robust Commercial Software • Support and Training • Modelling that is well validated and uses leading technology • Global user community driving product development and direction

Consequence Analysis

What is Consequence Analysis? DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Estimate of effects for chemical release: Accidental Designed

Consequence Analysis DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Emphasis is placed on the following aspects of various types of releases of a hazardous material • • • •

Mass release rate of material Gas dispersion Liquid pools that are formed and evaporate Fire and Toxic effects

Consequence Analysis Development DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Possible Flammable, Explosive and Toxic Effects from releases of Liquids and/or Vapors are explored following the scheme: Discharge Calculations Dispersion Calculations Flammable/Toxic Effects Calculations

Discharge Determines DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • • •

Release Rate Phase of the Release Liquid Fraction Temperature Duration

WIND

Vapor

Liquid Jet Vapor Vapor Liquid Liquid Jet

Liquid Jet

Source Term Models used by PHAST DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Instantaneous or catastrophic release

Line release

Vessel

Vessel

Orifice leak Vessel

Released material

Released material Pipe

Orifice Released material

Rupture point

Consequence Analysis Development DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Possible Flammable, Explosive and Toxic Effects from releases of Liquids and/or Vapors are explored following the scheme: Discharge Calculations Dispersion Calculations Flammable/Toxic Effects Calculations

Pipe and Orifice Model: Atmospheric Expansion & Rain-out DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Flash

Vapour

Small droplets remain suspended

Liquid

Large droplets rain out Liquid pool

Dispersion DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Needs: Discharge Results Weather Data

Types of Clouds: Instantaneous Continuous Short Duration

Cloud Formation DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • •

Initial Turbulent Expanding Jet Dense Spreading and Turbulent Mixing Slumping Dense Cloud Passive/Gaussian

Initial Turbulent Expanding Jet DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • •

Continuous releases have a direction Instantaneous releases occur in all directions Rapid expansion Rapid decrease of concentration

Dense Spreading and Turbulent Mixing DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • • •

Energy left Cloud expanding Cloud touches down High degree of mixing Cloud moving faster than the wind

Slumping Dense Cloud DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • •

Lost energy Slumping and spreading Lower mixing rate

Passive / Gaussian DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • •

Lost ALL initial energy Mixing due to turbulence Wind speed

UDM Dispersion Phases DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

circular cross-section

z

truncated cross-section semi-elliptic

cross-section

x

y

• •

ELEVATED PLUME

TOUCHING DOWN

GROUND-LEVEL PLUME

elevation phases: elevated, touching down, ground-level, lift-off, elevated, mixing layer dispersion phases: jet, heavy, passive

Short Duration Continuous Releases DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

(a) Release just begun

(b) Release ends

(c) Cloud moves away from the release point

(d) At this point the release is quasiinstantaneous

(e) Replaced with equivalent circular instantaneous cloud

(f) The circular cloud moves away

Consequence Analysis Development DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Possible Flammable, Explosive and Toxic Effects from releases of Liquids and/or Vapors are explored following the scheme: Discharge Calculations Dispersion Calculations Flammable/Toxic Effects Calculations

Flammable and Toxic Effects DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • • • •

Flash Fires Vapor Cloud Explosion BLEVE Pool Fire Jet Fire Probits

Testing and Verification DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• Test models prior to integration • Model verification: ý sensitivity

studies

• Model validation against experiments: ý New,

systematic re-validation for models which have substantially changed

Validation Against Large Scale Experiments DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• passive dispersion (Prairie Grass) • elevated two-phase jet (EC - propane, Desert Tortoise - ammonia) • elevated HF jet (Goldfish) • instantaneous (Thorney Island) • pool evaporation - LNG (Maplin Sands, Burro) ý to

further improve link pool/dispersion model

Validation against Prairie Grass 8 - concentration DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Prairie Grass 8 - Elevate d re le ase of Sulfur Dioxide

concentration (mol %)

100 10 1 0.1

c e nt re - line a t z =0

0.01

e xpe rime nt a l da t a

0.001 0.0001 0.00001 1

10

100

1000

downwind distance (m)

10000

Validation against Thorney Island 8 - concentration DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Thorne y Island 8 - Instantane ous re le ase of Nitroge n and Fre on

concentration (mol %)

100 10 1 0.1

c e nt re -line a t z =0.4

0.01

e xpe r ime nt a l da t a

0.001 0.0001 0.00001 1

10

100

1000

downwind distance (m)

10000

Benefits of Consequence Analysis DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• Lower Liability • Preventing/Minimizing Damage • Regulatory Compliance

More Benefits of Consequence Analysis DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• Environmental Awareness • Quantitative Risk Analysis • Added Benefit of Decrease in Downtime

DNV Risk Management Software

PHAST - Past, Present and Future

PHAST DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • • •

2004-09-16

Process Hazard Analysis Software Tools

Past - 10 Years Ago DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• PHAST started as a development project by Technica for Rohm and Haas • It was based on the models and code from SAFETI but developed for the PC • The commercial launch was version 2 in June 1989 in Oslo.

2004-09-16

Present - 10 years of Progress DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • • •

600 Users 250,000 lines of code 200 C++ classes 50 Modelling modules New capabilities… … .. ý ý ý ý

Graphics, maps Standalone models Time dependency Unified Dispersion Model...

2004-09-16

The Future DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • • • • • •

Continuous Improvement in Consequence Modelling Integration of PHAST models in other business applications Enhanced Functionality through DNV Software group Links to GIS Links to CAD Systems Web Integration Links to ERP systems ???? You tell us

2004-09-16

DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

V

n o i is 386

NT

11 Releases Of PHAST

486

Pentium

UNIX

Te n ch

Windows 3

og ol y

2004-09-16

Cu sto me rs

Regul DOS ation

Conclusion DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • • •

First 10 years has seen many developments PHAST continues to be the leading commercial tool We are preparing the release of the 11th version of PHAST This version uses state-of-the-art software technology DNV’s strategy allows more cost effective maintenance and development of software • There are many improvements we can make • Users are key in keeping PHAST a success

2004-09-16

PHAST Overview

Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• Complete software package for consequence analysis • Capability of modeling catastrophic releases, leaks, line ruptures, relief valves, disk ruptures and vents from vapor space

Program Structure DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • • •

32 Bit Version Only PSU file is created Windows naming convention Can be run on NT by nonAdministrators Software & hardware security

Installation DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

•

Three types of installations: ýStand

alone installation ýNetwork installation sharing Administrative files only ýNetwork installation sharing all common files

Modularization DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• Test models prior to integration • Model verification ý

Sensitivity studies

• Model validation against experiments ý

New, systematic re-validation for models which have substantially changed

More about PHAST... DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • •

User friendly Interface Graphical & animated results Tabular results

New Structure DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

•

Study Tree ýStudy

Folder

ýStudy ýFolders ýModels

Case Lists DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • •

Allows for sensitivity studies Can modify one or more variables at a time Can visualize all variations on the same graph Reports display all variations

Case Definition DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • • • • •

Saturated Ethylene 10 000 Kg 2.068 bar 40 mm orifice 5 m below liquid level Outdoors vessel

Weather Data DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• • •

1.5 m/s - D stability 5 m/s - D stability 1.5 m/s - F stability

Explosion Models DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Calculations can be performed after all appropriate data has been provided

Reports DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

• Selection of reports to be displayed • Selection of Dispersion Report fields • Reports can be exported directly into MS Word • Reports can be generated for materials as well as parameters

Graphics DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

•

All applicable graphs are displayed

•

Dynamic view of some graphs is available

•

Footprint height can be modified

•

Multiple cases or weathers can be viewed at once for all plots

Graphics #2 DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

Conclusion DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE

•

Substantial modularization and restructuring work for all models in PHAST 6.0

•

New structure and characteristics allows more flexibility

•

Component architecture opens new possibilities ýBetter

model quality control ýEasier and more efficient updates ýModel version control ýBetter support of individual models

Risk Management Software

DNV Software Presentation