MW Petroleum Apache's cost of capital Unlevered cost of capital: Risk free rate (10yr bond) Unlevered beta Equity risk premium Unlevered cost of capital
8.03% 0.82 5.70% 12.70%
From Exhibit 7 Aggregate MW Projections Production: Net Crude and Condensates (MB) Net Gas (MMCF) Casf Flows (in Millions): Revenues-Oil Revenues-Gas Total Revenues Direct Production Taxes Direct Operating Expense Overhead Fin. Book DD&A Net Income Before Taxes Federal and state income taxes: Current Deferred Total Income Taxes Profit Contribution Non-Cash charges Cash from Operations Capital Expenditures Free Cash Flow Terminal Value Total PV Total PV Interest tax shields: Assumed coupon on debt Assumed initial debt Year 1 interest Tax rate Year 1 tax shield Assumed cost of debt Growth rate (= g of op cash flow) Value of tax shield (perpetuity) Value of "Additional assets" Total value of MW
Aggregate MW Production and cash Flow Projections ($ millions except as noted) 1
Proved Developed Reserves: Production and cash Flow Projections ($ millions except as noted)
Proved Developed Reserves
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Production Crude and condensates (MB) Gas (MMCF)
9.4 45.3
8.1 36.8
7.1 29.5
6.3 25.0
5.3 21.7
4.5 18.6
3.7 16.5
2.9 14.9
2.4 12.8
2.2 11.3
1.9 10.3
192.0 90.5 282.5
180.4 82.1 262.5
168.2 73.5 241.7
154.5 67.8 222.3
139.4 64.1 203.5
124.5 59.2 183.7
109.1 56.7 165.8
94.7 54.2 148.9
82.7 50.4 133.1
75.7 47.6 123.3
72.0 45.8 117.8
25.5 79.9 33.9 58.0 85.2
23.6 80.3 32.2 45.2 81.2
21.6 79.8 28.6 35.6 76.1
19.9 78.9 25.9 29.1 68.5
18.0 76.0 23.0 23.8 62.7
16.2 71.0 20.4 19.1 57.0
14.4 63.8 18.3 19.6 49.7
12.7 56.1 16.1 16.6 47.4
11.4 49.9 13.9 13.3 44.6
10.5 48.2 12.6 10.7 41.3
9.8 45.5 10.8 9.0 42.7
48.5 (19.1) 29.4 55.8 38.9 94.7 5.4
44.4 (15.2) 29.2 52.0 30.1 82.1 2.0
39.3 (11.8) 27.5 48.6 23.7 72.3 2.7
34.1 (9.5) 24.6 43.9 19.6 63.5 0.5
29.9 (7.7) 22.2 40.5 16.1 56.6 0.6
25.9 (5.9) 20.0 37.0 13.2 50.2 0.8
23.6 (6.2) 17.4 32.3 13.5 45.8 0.8
21.5 (5.1) 16.4 31.0 11.5 42.5 0.6
19.3 (3.9) 15.4 29.2 9.5 38.7 1.1
17.5 (3.1) 14.4 26.9 7.7 34.6 0.4
17.4 (2.5) 14.9 27.8 6.4 34.2 0.1
89.3
80.1
69.6
63.0
56.0
49.4
45.0
41.9
37.6
34.2
34.1
89.3 79.2 388.7
80.1 63.1
69.6 48.6
63.0 39.0
56.0 30.8
49.4 24.1
45.0 19.5
41.9 16.1
37.6 12.8
34.2 10.3
34.1 9.2
Cash Flows (in millions): Revenues-Oil Revenues-Gas Total Revenues Direct Production Taxes Direct Operating Expense Overhead Fin. Book DD&A Net Income Before Taxes Federal and state income taxes: Current Deffered Total income taxes Profit contribution Non-cash charges Cash from operations Capital expenditures Cash flow Terminal value Total PV Total PV
2002
2003
2004
2005
1.7 8.5
1.5 7.6
1.4 6.7
1.2 6.2
66.7 41.1 107.8
63.4 38.2 101.6
59.9 36.9 96.8
56.6 36.1 92.7
9.1 44.1 9.7 7.5 37.4
8.5 44.5 9.0 6.3 33.3
8.1 43.7 8.3 5.3 31.4
7.7 43.0 7.8 4.5 29.7
15.2 (2.2) 13.0 24.4 5.3 29.7 0.1
13.4 (1.8) 11.6 21.7 4.5 26.2 0.1
12.7 (1.4) 11.3 20.1 4.0 24.1 0.5
12.0 (1.2) 10.8 18.9 3.3 22.2 0.1
29.6
26.1
23.6
29.6 7.0
26.1 5.5
23.6 4.4
22.1 92.1 114.2 19.0
after Exhibit 4
Proved Undeveloped Reserves
Proved Undeveloped Reserves: Production and cash Flow Projections ($ millions except a
1
2
3
4
5
6
Production Crude and condensates (MB) Gas (MMCF)
0.3 1.7
0.6 4.9
0.5 5.6
0.5 3.3
0.5 2.3
0.5 2.0
Cash Flows (in millions): Revenues-Oil Revenues-Gas Total Revenues
6.0 3.4 9.4
14.0 11.3 25.3
12.9 14.5 27.4
11.8 9.1 20.9
12.3 6.7 19.0
13.2 6.2 19.4
0.9 1.2 1.1 12.3 (6.1)
2.4 1.5 3.1 12.6 5.7
2.3 2.0 3.2 10.6 9.3
1.8 2.3 2.4 9.3 5.1
1.7 2.8 2.1 8.1 4.3
1.7 3.4 2.2 6.7 5.4
2.1 (4.1) (2.0) (4.1) 8.3 4.2 17.5
6.4 (4.2) 2.2 3.5 8.4 11.9 17.7
7.0 (3.5) 3.5 5.8 7.1 12.9 5.3
5.0 (3.0) 2.0 3.1 6.3 9.4 4.1
4.3 (2.6) 1.7 2.6 5.5 8.1 3.5
4.1 (2.1) 2.0 3.4 4.6 8.0 1.3
(13.3)
(5.8)
7.6
5.3
4.6
6.7
(13.3) (11.8) 42.5
(5.8) (4.6)
7.6 5.3
5.3 3.3
4.6 2.5
6.7 3.3
17.5 16.2 31.4
17.7 15.2
4.2
11.9
7.6
5.3
4.6
6.7
4.2 3.7 71.9
11.9 9.4
7.6 5.3
5.3 3.3
4.6 2.5
6.7 3.3
Direct Production Taxes Direct Operating Expense Overhead Fin. Book DD&A Net Income Before Taxes Federal and state income taxes: Current Deferred Total income taxes Profit contribution Non-cash charges Cash from operations Capital expenditures Cash flow Terminal value Total PV Total PV (standard NPV) Development capex PV @ risk free rate Total PV Cash flow net of dev cost Terminal value Total PV @ cost of capital Total PV Option valuation Time to expiration (yrs) Risk free rate Volatility d1 N(d1) d2 N(d2)
5 8.03% 50% 1.660621 0.951605 0.542587 0.706293
6 8.03% 50% 1.683559 0.953867 0.458814 0.676816
7 8.03% 50% 1.713865 0.956723 0.390989 0.652097
Call value
53.63
55.51
57.17
Flow Projections ($ millions except as noted)
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
0.5 2.0
0.7 2.2
0.8 2.3
0.7 1.9
0.7 1.6
0.7 1.3
0.7 1.3
0.7 1.0
0.6 0.9
16.1 6.6 22.7
21.0 7.1 28.1
27.1 8.2 35.3
25.2 7.2 32.4
25.3 6.6 31.9
26.8 5.5 32.3
28.7 5.2 33.9
30.9 5.2 36.1
29.3 4.5 33.8
2.0 3.3 2.5 6.8 8.1
2.5 3.3 3.0 5.8 13.5
3.1 4.5 3.7 4.6 19.4
2.8 3.4 3.3 3.7 19.2
2.8 3.7 2.9 4.3 18.2
3.0 4.2 2.9 3.6 18.6
3.1 4.5 3.0 3.0 20.3
2.9 4.7 3.1 2.5 22.9
3.0 4.8 2.8 2.1 21.1
5.1 (2.1) 3.0 5.1 4.7 9.8 0.1
6.5 (1.8) 4.7 8.8 4.0 12.8 0.3
8.0 (1.3) 6.7 12.7 3.2 15.9 0.0
7.7 (1.1) 6.6 12.6 2.6 15.2 0.1
7.6 (1.2) 6.4 11.8 3.1 14.9 8.1
7.5 (1.0) 6.5 12.1 2.5 14.6 0.0
7.9 (0.9) 7.0 13.3 2.2 15.5 0.2
8.8 (0.7) 8.1 14.8 1.9 16.7 0.0
8.1 (0.6) 7.5 13.6 1.6 15.2 0.0
9.7
12.5
15.9
15.1
6.8
14.6
15.3
16.7
9.7 4.2
12.5 4.8
15.9 5.4
15.1 4.6
6.8 1.8
14.6 3.5
15.3 3.2
16.7 3.1
15.2 67.8 83.0 13.8
9.7
12.5
15.9
15.1
6.8
14.6
15.3
16.7
9.7 4.2
12.5 4.8
15.9 5.4
15.1 4.6
6.8 1.8
14.6 3.5
15.3 3.2
16.7 3.1
15.2 67.8 83.0 13.8
after Exhibit 5
Probable Reserves
Probable Reserves: Production and cash Flow Projections ($ millions except as noted)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Production Crude and Condensates (MB) Gas (MMCF)
0.2 2.8
0.3 4.2
0.4 4.9
0.4 5.3
0.5 4.2
0.5 3.8
0.7 4.5
Casf Flows (in Millions): Revenues-Oil Revenues-Gas Total Revenues
3.7 5.8 9.5
6.3 9.4 15.7
8.0 11.6 19.6
9.6 14.1 23.7
13.3 12.3 25.6
14.3 12.3 26.6
17.0 13.0 30.0
0.8 0.4 1.3 0.4 6.6
1.3 0.7 1.9 0.8 11.0
1.7 0.8 2.3 1.2 13.6
2.0 2.6 2.8 2.5 13.8
2.2 4.4 3.0 1.6 14.4
2.3 4.7 2.9 1.3 15.4
2.7 5.3 3.1 1.5 17.4
2.9 (0.2) 2.7 3.9 0.2 4.1 10.0
3.7 0.0 3.7 7.3 0.8 8.1 4.3
4.8 (0.2) 4.6 9.0 1.1 10.1 11.4
4.8 (0.2) 4.6 9.2 2.2 11.4 14.0
3.8 0.3 4.1 10.3 1.9 12.2 2.6
4.2 0.3 4.5 10.9 1.6 12.5 0.5
5.5 0.1 5.6 11.8 1.6 13.4 0.3
Direct Production Taxes Direct Operating Expense Overhead Fin. Book DD&A Net Income Before Taxes Federal and state income taxes: Current Deffered Total Income Taxes Profit Contribution Non-Cash charges Cash from Operations Capital Expenditures Cash Flow Terminal Value Total PV Total PV
(5.9)
3.8
(1.3)
(2.6)
9.6
12.0
13.1
(5.9) (5.2) 42.5
3.8 3.0
(1.3) (0.9)
(2.6) (1.6)
9.6 5.3
12.0 5.9
13.1 5.7
Development capex PV @ risk free rate Total PV
10.0 9.3 32.3
4.3 3.7
11.4 9.0
14.0 10.3
4.1
8.1
10.1
11.4
9.6
12.0
13.1
4.1 3.6 71.4
8.1 6.4
10.1 7.1
11.4 7.1
9.6 5.3
12.0 5.9
13.1 5.7
Cash flow net of dev cost Terminal value Total PV @ cost of capital Total PV Option valuation Time to expiration (yrs) Risk free rate Volatility d1 N(d1) d2 N(d2)
Possible Reserves: Production and cash Flow Projections ($ millions except as noted)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Production Crude and Condensates (MB) Gas (MMCF)
0.1 0.5
0.8 3.5
0.9 3.8
0.8 3.9
0.8 3.6
1.0 3.7
1.6 3.2
Casf Flows (in Millions): Revenues-Oil Revenues-Gas Total Revenues
2.1 0.6 2.7
10.1 3.6 13.7
13.2 5.1 18.3
14.4 6.9 21.3
18.0 7.2 25.2
24.1 7.7 31.8
42.3 7.7 50.0
0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1
1.2 1.0 1.6 1.4 8.5
1.6 1.5 2.1 2.2 10.9
1.8 2.1 2.5 4.9 10.0
2.2 6.5 2.9 3.5 10.1
2.8 13.1 3.4 3.1 9.4
5.0 21.2 5.2 3.6 15.0
0.8 (0.4) 0.4 0.7 0.3 1.0 9.7
3.1 0.0 3.1 5.4 1.4 6.8 9.8
4.2 (0.3) 3.9 7.0 1.9 8.9 22.4
4.4 (0.5) 3.9 6.1 4.4 10.5 38.9
3.2 0.7 3.9 6.2 4.2 10.4 27.4
3.2 0.7 3.9 5.5 3.8 9.3 6.8
5.4 0.2 5.6 9.4 3.8 13.2 0.7
Cash Flow Terminal Value Total PV Total PV
(8.7)
(3.0)
(13.5)
(28.4)
(17.0)
2.5
12.5
(8.7) (7.7) 8.6
(3.0) (2.4)
(13.5) (9.4)
(28.4) (17.6)
(17.0) (9.3)
2.5 1.2
12.5 5.4
Development capex PV @ risk free rate Total PV
9.7 9.0 86.6
9.8 8.4
22.4 17.8
38.9 28.6
27.4 18.6
6.8 4.3
1.0
6.8
8.9
10.5
10.4
9.3
12.5
1.0 0.9 83.1
6.8 5.4
8.9 6.2
10.5 6.5
10.4 5.7
9.3 4.5
12.5 5.4
Direct Production Taxes Direct Operating Expense Overhead Fin. Book DD&A Net Income Before Taxes Federal and state income taxes: Current Deffered Total Income Taxes Profit Contribution Non-Cash charges Cash from Operations Capital Expenditures
Cash flow net of dev cost Terminal value Total PV @ cost of capital Total PV Option valuation Time to expiration (yrs) Risk free rate Volatility d1 N(d1) d2 N(d2)
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