MSSociety Group 12

Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada – London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour

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Case Analysis GROUP 12

Ankit Anand (1511308) Avinash Kumar (1511314) Chetan Dixit (1511316) Debraj Mandal (1511318) Gaurav Prasad (1511322) Shubham Shukla (1511359)

London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour SUMMARY PLOT SYNOPSIS Key Characters –

Lory Anne Mcnulty, Sr. Manager Sarah Mann, Supervisor of funraising event

Multiple Sclerosis is a one the most common and unpredictable diseases of the central nervous system. Almost 2.5 million people around the world is estimated to be affected by it. Though it is a progressive disease, it is curable with medical treatment. The non-profit Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada provided a wide range of educational programs, client services and medical research support for Canadians with MS. A major event in the form of bicycle tour between London and Grand Bend, Ontario was organized for fundraising from July 24 and 25. Problem arose when it was found out 4 weeks before that the road construction would not be completed before the event. Mcnulty have to check whether they would be able to find a safe, paved route. On the 1st day, participants started that day’s approximately 85 km of cycling at the beaches of Lake Huron & made their way to The University of Western Ontario in London. The next morning, the bicyclists continued the remaining 65 km returning to Grand Bend. A minimum of $200 was expected to be raised by each participant at an expense rate of 45 per cent and total goal of $ 260,000 in donations. A route planning schedule was established in which various tasks and their respective completion time was specified. The rest of the team too had to focus on food, non-food sponsorship and event marketing for the tour. There was a threat of snow and MS walk event, after passing of which the two tentative routes were investigated. After investigation, it was found out that both the routes were feasible as none of the bridges were washed away. When it came to light that there were many construction sites on those routes, Mann had to revise and tested the feasibility of new routes. The road department was again contacted before decision to choose. There was variation in time expected to be spend by Mann with each road department and county councils as high uncertainty was involved in finalizing the tentative routes. Application for permit requires 4-7 days. Mann spends about 1 day to gather the requests for the certificates before sending the requests to national office.

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London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour Mann contacted each of the regional service providers after obtaining permits – 2 hospitals, 2 ambulance providers, 6 police stations and 4 fire stations. This task was expected to take between 5-8 days. Around 10 checkpoints along 150 km was expected. It took around 8-15 days by Mann to finish the work. The kilometer description also took about 1 day for determination. Then the road conditions were verified & a list of locations with emergency phone nos. and detailed map were created. Copies of the map would be distributed on the morning of the event. But events took a turn when the news of actual road conditions that were still unfinished came. The event was a major one and under no circumstances can it be cancelled. A plan has to be decided taking into account overtime, staff morale and obviously a hazard-free, safe route for the bicycle tour.

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London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour NETWORK DIAGRAM FOR BICYCLE ROUTE PLANNING

Activi ty Task A B C D E F G H I J K L M N

Task name Drive tentative routes Ask the roads departments for information about the tentative route Ask the country councils for info about the tentative route Approach country councils for permits Send requests for the insurance certificate to the Toronto national office Obtain the permits from the country councils Contact all emergency services Set the checkpoints and estimate the kilometer markings Determine kilometer descriptions Create list of locations associated with the emergency phone numbers Verify road conditions Draw detailed maps with checkpoints and prepare route description Prepare list of locations associated with emergency phone numbers Present the routes to the committee and Voyageur staff Page 4 of 14

London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour O P Q R S

Print internal copy of map and route descriptions Print list of locations associated with emergency phone numbers Distribute internal maps, route description and emergency phone numbers to staff and volunteers Print maps and route description for cyclists Distribute maps and route description to cyclists

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London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour COMPLETION TIME USING OPTIMISTIC, MOST LIKELY AND PESSIMISTIC TIMES The expected duration i.e. mean for each of the tasks using the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic times has been calculated using the formula – Expected duration (µ) = (Optimistic Time + 4*Most Likely Time + Pessimistic Time) / 6 The variance i.e. mean for each of the tasks using the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic times has been calculated using the formula – Variance (σ2) = ((Pessimistic Time – Optimistic Time)/6)2

Task name Drive tentative routes Ask the roads departments for information about the tentative route Ask the country councils for info about the tentative route Approach country councils for permits Send requests for the insurance certificate to the Toronto national office Obtain the permits from the country councils Contact all emergency services Set the checkpoints and estimate the kilometer markings Determine kilometer descriptions Create list of locations associated with the emergency phone numbers

Optimis tic 0.8

Most Likely 2

Pessimis tic 3

Expected duration 1.97

Varianc e 0.13

9

20

40

21.50

26.69

9

15

20

14.83

3.36

1

1

2

1.17

0.03

0

1

1

0.83

0.03

4 5

5 7

7 8

5.17 6.83

0.25 0.25

8 1

11 1

15 2

11.17 1.17

1.36 0.03

0.8

1

2

1.13

0.04

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London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour Verify road conditions Draw detailed maps with checkpoints and prepare route description Prepare list of locations associated with emergency phone numbers Present the routes to the committee and Voyageur staff Print internal copy of map and route descriptions Print list of locations associated with emergency phone numbers Distribute internal maps, route descripton and emergency phone numbers to staff and volunteers Print maps and route description for cyclists Distribute maps and route description to cyclists

0.7

1

1

0.95

0.00

1.5

2

2.5

2.00

0.03

0.4

0.5

1

0.57

0.01

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.10

0.00

0.5

0.5

1

0.58

0.01

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.10

0.00

1

1

2

1.17

0.03

0.5

0.5

1

0.58

0.01

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.45

0.00

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London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour POSSIBLE PATHS IN THE NETWORK AND CRITICAL PATH Expected duration

Possible paths

Varianc e

1. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-J-M-P-Q-R-S

52.63

28.83

2. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-J-M-P-Q-R-S

31.13

2.14

3. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-M-P-Q-R-S

54.67

28.85

4. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-M-P-Q-R-S

33.17

2.15

5. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-K-L-M-P-Q-R-S

54.45

28.82

6. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-K-L-M-P-Q-R-S

32.95

2.13

7. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-N-O-Q-R-S

54.68

28.85

8. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-N-O-Q-R-S

33.18

2.15

9. A-B-D-E-F-G-H-K-L-N-O-Q-R-S

54.47

28.82

10. A-C-D-E-F-G-H-K-L-N-O-Q-R-S

32.97

2.13

S.D 5.36961 6 1.46230 4 5.37106 4 1.46761 3 5.36871 1 1.45897 6 5.37078 1.46657 2 5.36842 6 1.45792 9

For the critical path (A-B-D-E-F-G-H-I-L-M-P-Q-R-S), the different time periods we have obtained are: Most likely time: 52.6 days Optimistic time: 32.6 days Pessimistic time: 85.1 days As stated above, completion of route planning tasks will take a total of 53 days at an average, which is lesser than 59 days mentioned in the case. Also optimistic time of 33 days is calculated by taking the earliest finish period for each of the tasks required in the route planning activity. It is still more than 23 days, which is the number of days required in the start of bicycle tour. Thus, it is not possible to finish the tasks before the start of the tour. We

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London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour therefore wither need to change the cycling route or alter the manpower involved in the planning activities.

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London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN TASK DURATION TIMES Establishing contingency plans can help managing the uncertainties in task-duration time. Management of idle-time is a critical factor in managing uncertainties. Control mechanism and monitoring leads can manage slack. We can also manage uncertainties by managing deliverables instead of directly managing the task.

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London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour CRITICAL PATH STRATEGIES TO COMPLETE ROUTE PLANNING BY 24 JULY MSC should minimize the time of activities that are less prior so that it may become able to finish the route planning before 24 July. Activities B and C can be done simultaneously as these activities take minimum expected time of 9 days. So these activities can be crashed from route planning. Doing so will reduce the time of the completion of task and MSC can focus on the critical path activities of the route planning activities.

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London-Grand Bend Bicycle Tour

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