Mozal Excel

Exhibit 6

Summary of Financial Financial Projections in Constant 1997 Dollars ($ millions)

Total assets Current senior debt Net senior debt Subordinated debt (quasi-equity) Retained Earnings Share capital Total capital Senior debt/Total capital Current ratio a DSCR (senior debt) DSCR (total debt)

a b

1 9 98

1 9 99

2 0 00

2 00 1

2 0 02

2 0 03

2004

163

7 78

1,252

1,328

1,272

1,202

1 ,1 3 2

1,062

3 66

29 5 95

57 592

70 522

70 451

70 38 1

70 311

85

1 44

10 0 163

3 27 7 78

4 84 1,252

150 13 500 1,312

15 0 13 500 1,255

150 13 5 00 1,184

150 13 500 1,114

15 0 13 500 1 ,0 4 4

39%

47 %

50 %

49% 1.3

47% 1.4

44% 1 .6

40% 1 .8

36% 2.0

5 .2

1 .7

1 .6

1.7

1.8

4 .6

1 .6

1 .5

1.6

1.6

3 94 17 0 12

429 189 52

429 190 47

4 29 19 0 41

429 186 35

29

57

70

70

70

51

57

63

66

63

a

Sales Cash flow (pre interest) Interest on senior debt Senior debt principal repayment b Equity investment Dividends and subordinate debt interest Subordinated debt principal repayment

Source:

1997

1 00

3 12

2 16

22 63

Company documents, IFC analysis, and casewriter estimates.

DSCR = debt service coverage ratio ratio = cash flow (principal + interest). The equity investment includes both equity and subordinated debt (quasi-equity) investments.

Senior Debt Subordinated Debt Equity Total Value of Project

63

3 03

2 58

54

0 100

85 2 27

59 1 57

6 16

Senior Debt Payment (Principal+Interest) Total Debt payment (Principal + Interest) Interest For Subordinated Debt

Total 678 150 500 1328

32.69 111.18 118.75 111.76 103.33 36.96 118.13 126.67 118.75 116.25 4 .2 6 6.95 7 .9 2 6.99 12.92

Total equity cash flow

-100.00 -312.00

IRR (year 1-25) Cost of Equity

13.43% 14.36%

-216.00

107.00

80.00

73.00

7 9 . 00

81.00

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

991

921

851

750

687

607

570

530

70 240

70 170

70 100

33 67

53 13

13 0

0 0

0 0

150 13 500 973

150 13 500 903

150 13 500 833

120 13 500 733

90 13 500 669

60 13 500 586

30 13 500 543

0 13 500 513

32% 2.1

27% 2.3

20% 2.5

14% 4.0

10% 3.2

2% 7.1

0% 12.8

0% 16.1

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

4.3

3.0

12.1

NA

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.4

2.2

1.8

3.4

5.2

429 187 29

429 187 23

429 171 17

429 170 11

429 171 7

429 170 4

429 170 1

429 170 0

70

70

70

70

33

53

13

0

72

79

68

73

79

106

125

140

30

30

30

30

30

98.42 93.50 85.50 80.95 110.00 103.89 100.59 121.43 11.58 10.39 15.09 10.48

39.77 77.73 7.96

56.67 94.44 7.78

88.00

94.00

84.00

59.00 101.00

14.05 NA 50.00 32.69 5.95 2.69

 Assum ing that cash flow rem ain sam e as the y 17 18 19 20 21 22 83.00 126.00 140.00 170.00 170.00 170.00 170.00 170.00 170.00

ar 16 from year 17-25 23 24 25 170.00 170.00 170.00

Fisher Equation :

(1+Real Interest Rate) = (1+Nominal Interest Rate)/(1+Inflation index) 1+Inflation Index = 1.0656 / 1.0357 Inflation Index = 2.95

Beta-Asset = 0.78 Beta-Equity = Beta_Asset * V/E Beta-Equity = 0.78*1328/650 Beta-Equity = 1.59

Cost of Equity= Rf + Beta * (Rm - Rf - Inflation Index) Cost of Equity= 3.5 + 1.5936*(13.35 - 3.5 - 2.95) Cost of Equity= 14.36