Mondi Investor Site Visit Corrugated Business

October 30, 2017 | Author: Kolade Apata | Category: Biodegradable Materials, Industries, Printing Materials, Paper, Paper And Packaging Product
Share Embed Donate


Short Description

Download Mondi Investor Site Visit Corrugated Business...

Description

Corrugated Business Peter Oswald Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie 2 – 4 November 2010

Historical milestones and strategic focus Improved cost position and refined geographic footprint 2007 Acquisition of 54% of Turkish corrugated packaging business Tire Kutsan 2009 Completion EUR 330m investment (EUR 20m below budget), new lightweight recycled containerboard machine ECO7, new-state-of-the-art corrugated box plant, Świecie, Poland

2010 Capacity increase to 280kt, PM21 Syktyvkar (+65kt) part of STEP project 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2007 Closure of RCB mill Holcombe, UK 2008 Sale of UK Sheetfeeding business and French Specialty plants 2008 Sale of RCB mill Niedergösgen, Switzerland 2009 Sale of French box plants 2009 Sale of RCB mill and sheetfeeder in Monza, Italy 2009 Closure of Hypac box plant, UK 2010 Sale of UK box plants

Strategic focus going forward Cash generation Potential energy capex to improve energy costs in CEE Acquisition in CEE if value enhancing and strong synergies Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 1

Mondi has a clear upstream focus Mondi covers 3 times the containerboard demand of its converting business

Mondi Containerboard sales Total sales 535kt VCB, 526kt RCB

7kt VCB 10kt RCB

2%

33kt VCB 160kt RCB

18%

Mondi

Mondi

other converting business

Corrugated Packaging

Total demand 10kt VCB, 12kt RCB

Total demand 67kt VCB, 271kt RCB

3kt VCB

34kt VCB

2kt RCB

111kt RCB Other Containerboard producers

495kt VCB 356kt RCB

80%

External

Sales Consumption Theoretical integration

1 061kt 360kt 34%

Mondi Information; volumes are HY1 2010 (excluding sales of divested Frohnleiten mill and demand of divested UK box plants, including ~90kt of SA containerboard) Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 2

Containerboard capacity overview

Mill Świecie (PL)*

Containerboard capacity 1 360 kt

Syktyvkar (RU)

280 kt

Raubling (DE)

210 kt

Tire Kutsan (TR)

140 kt

Steti (CZ)

110 kt

Total

2 100 kt

Source: Mondi Information. *) including 470 kt of built capacity of PM7; Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 3

Containerboard portfolio Sales volume LTM (in kt) 2 100 kt Recycled Containerboard

Kraftliner White Top 387 (18%)

750 (36%) 473 (23%) 312 (15%)

Kraftliner

178 (8%)

Kraftliner Substitute Semichemical Fluting

Source: Mondi Information; LTM Jul 2009 – Jun 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 4

Leading market positions* WTKL (Europe)

Brown kraftliner (Europe)

Recycled CB (Poland)

1 200 kt

4 800 kt

1 400 kt

Mondi

Mondi

10%

Mondi

22%

32%

68% Other

Other

WTKL (Russia only) 130kt

78%

90%

130 kt

Other

SC Fluting (Europe)

Corrugated Packaging CEE**

1 600 kt

5.2 bn m2 Prinzhorn

Mondi

Other

11%

13%

24%

Mondi 11%

Other 76%

89% Mondi

53%

11% 6% 6% Smurfit Kappa Stora Enso

Other

Model

*Source: Mondi management estimates (all based on sales, except corrugated packaging based on production) ; ** Central Eastern Europe: AT, PL, CZ, SK, HU, SL Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 5

Leading position in corrugated packaging in Poland and Turkey Poland

Turkey

2.9 bn m2

2.5 bn m2

Mondi

Mondi

15%

16%

Olmuksa (50% IP) 13% incl DS Smith Turkey

11% Stora Enso

Other 49%

Other 51% 9%

Smurfit Kappa 6% 6%

DS Smith

TFP

8%

10% Modem Karton (Eren)

6%

Kaplamin Dentas (SCA minority)

Source: Mondi management estimates and Henry Poole Consulting, 2010 (based on production figures 2009) Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 6

Mondi is focused on high growth corrugated packaging markets 8 biggest European corrugated markets 2010 (size in bn m2 and growth) 8.4 6.4

5.4

4.3

3.9

3.0

CAGR

2.9

7.0%

6.6%

2007-2010

2.7

6.8%

2010-2014 4.5% 2.6%

1.9%

1.9% 0.9%

-1.7%

-1.7%

0.8%

0.7%

-2.4%

0.8%

-2.8% -4.4%

Germany

Italy

France

Spain

UK

Poland

Turkey

Russia

Source: ICCA Global Corrugated Forecast Report 2010-2014, September 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 7

Growth rates Virgin Containerboard VCB demand growth Europe 2006 – 2010 5.8%

5.7% 4.9%

0.2%

-8.2% 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010e

Source: RISI World Containerboard Forecast, 2010, 2007 | European Paper Packaging Forecast, 2010, 2007, 2006 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 8

Corrugated market is reasonably well balanced European demand back to pre-crisis levels, but further growth differs by region Western European demand growth likely to flatten in the short-term CEE & Russia demand growth of >5% expected

European Virgin Containerboard (VCB) supply Net capacity contraction during the crisis of -1% to -2% is sustained Reduced imports into Europe No planned or expected major capacity expansions (largely due to fibre constraints)

European Recycled Containerboard (RCB) supply Net capacity expansion vs. pre-crisis of +2% Market balanced with increased exports No announced major capacity expansions for the next 2 years

Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 9

ECO7 Pros Poland was net exporter of recovered paper before ECO7, now balanced Poland is net importer of RCB (800 kt in 2009). ECO7 can sell over 50% into Poland with low transport costs ECO7 is well integrated downstream theoretically 56% into Mondi’s Polish box plants, de facto 33% theoretically 89% into Mondi’s Central European (AT/DE/PL) box plants, de facto 35%

Lightweight grades enjoy in general +5% higher growth rates than RCB overall Mill synergies and sales synergies with Kraftliner Cons RCB has a flat cost curve and low entry barriers Prowell’s new machine at the border to Poland drove recovered paper prices up and is a competitor for RCB

Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 10

Mondi enjoys benefits in wood costs Softwood pulpwood cost at mill (EUR/m3sub) 3Q 2009 4Q 2009 43 43 40 36 36 33 33

25 25 20 21

22 22

22 23

RUS WE

US South

US North

South Africa

33 33

36 37

37

39 39

34 34

27 27

Brazil Slovakia Czech

France Austria Poland Sweden Germany China Northeast

Source: Pöyry Cost Competitiveness Update, January 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 11

Cost curve virgin containerboard WTKL delivered costs Frankfurt

Unbleached kraftliner delivered costs Frankfurt

EUR/t

700

2009/IV

EUR/t

600

2009/IV Delivered Costs

600

Delivered Costs 500

to Frankfurt

500

to Frankfurt 400

1

400

2 1

4

3

2

300 300 200

1.

Richards Bay PM2

2.

Syktyvkar PM21

200

100

100 0 0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

Swiecie PM5

2.

Swiecie PM1

3.

Swiecie PM2

4.

Steti PM1

0 0

500

1.000

Cumulative capacity, 1000 t/a

1 USD = 0.684 EUR 1 EUR = 1.462 USD

1.

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

Cumulative capacity, 1000 t/a

1 USD = 0.684 EUR 1 EUR = 1.462 USD

Source: Pöyry Cost Competitiveness Update, January 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 12

Cost curve recycled containerboard Highly competitive with weighted average costs in first quartile EUR/t

2009/IV

500 450 Delivered costs to Frankfurt

400 350 4

300

3 2

250 1

Mondi weighted average

200 1. Swiecie PM7 2. Swiecie PM3

150

3. Raubling PM7 4. Raubling PM5

100 0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

- Cumulative capacity, 1 000 t/a Source: Pöyry Cost Competitiveness Update, January 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 13

FX-rates of PLN and RUB are important for the profitability of Containerboard Swiecie CB Sales volume LTM

Syktyvkar CB Sales volume LTM

1 145 kt

217 kt

Domestic VCB Export VCB

81 (7%)

Domestic RCB

285 (25%)

555 (48%)

Domestic

Export

97 (45%)

120 (55%)

223 (20%) Export RCB

Source: Mondi Information; LTM Jul 2009 – Jun 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 14

Mondi as the corrugated business of choice Pros Focus on low cost virgin containerboard Where Europe is an importer And new capacities are not planned

Marketing policy of Kraftliner substitutes as a growing niche Difficult to replicate for most competitors

Well invested asset base with high free cash flow generation Cons More cyclical due to lower level of forward integration Management challenges of more difficult emerging markets (Russia/Turkey)

Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010

PAGE 15

View more...

Comments

Copyright ©2017 KUPDF Inc.
SUPPORT KUPDF