Mondi Investor Site Visit Corrugated Business
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Corrugated Business Peter Oswald Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie 2 – 4 November 2010
Historical milestones and strategic focus Improved cost position and refined geographic footprint 2007 Acquisition of 54% of Turkish corrugated packaging business Tire Kutsan 2009 Completion EUR 330m investment (EUR 20m below budget), new lightweight recycled containerboard machine ECO7, new-state-of-the-art corrugated box plant, Świecie, Poland
2010 Capacity increase to 280kt, PM21 Syktyvkar (+65kt) part of STEP project 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2007 Closure of RCB mill Holcombe, UK 2008 Sale of UK Sheetfeeding business and French Specialty plants 2008 Sale of RCB mill Niedergösgen, Switzerland 2009 Sale of French box plants 2009 Sale of RCB mill and sheetfeeder in Monza, Italy 2009 Closure of Hypac box plant, UK 2010 Sale of UK box plants
Strategic focus going forward Cash generation Potential energy capex to improve energy costs in CEE Acquisition in CEE if value enhancing and strong synergies Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 1
Mondi has a clear upstream focus Mondi covers 3 times the containerboard demand of its converting business
Mondi Containerboard sales Total sales 535kt VCB, 526kt RCB
7kt VCB 10kt RCB
2%
33kt VCB 160kt RCB
18%
Mondi
Mondi
other converting business
Corrugated Packaging
Total demand 10kt VCB, 12kt RCB
Total demand 67kt VCB, 271kt RCB
3kt VCB
34kt VCB
2kt RCB
111kt RCB Other Containerboard producers
495kt VCB 356kt RCB
80%
External
Sales Consumption Theoretical integration
1 061kt 360kt 34%
Mondi Information; volumes are HY1 2010 (excluding sales of divested Frohnleiten mill and demand of divested UK box plants, including ~90kt of SA containerboard) Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 2
Containerboard capacity overview
Mill Świecie (PL)*
Containerboard capacity 1 360 kt
Syktyvkar (RU)
280 kt
Raubling (DE)
210 kt
Tire Kutsan (TR)
140 kt
Steti (CZ)
110 kt
Total
2 100 kt
Source: Mondi Information. *) including 470 kt of built capacity of PM7; Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 3
Containerboard portfolio Sales volume LTM (in kt) 2 100 kt Recycled Containerboard
Kraftliner White Top 387 (18%)
750 (36%) 473 (23%) 312 (15%)
Kraftliner
178 (8%)
Kraftliner Substitute Semichemical Fluting
Source: Mondi Information; LTM Jul 2009 – Jun 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 4
Leading market positions* WTKL (Europe)
Brown kraftliner (Europe)
Recycled CB (Poland)
1 200 kt
4 800 kt
1 400 kt
Mondi
Mondi
10%
Mondi
22%
32%
68% Other
Other
WTKL (Russia only) 130kt
78%
90%
130 kt
Other
SC Fluting (Europe)
Corrugated Packaging CEE**
1 600 kt
5.2 bn m2 Prinzhorn
Mondi
Other
11%
13%
24%
Mondi 11%
Other 76%
89% Mondi
53%
11% 6% 6% Smurfit Kappa Stora Enso
Other
Model
*Source: Mondi management estimates (all based on sales, except corrugated packaging based on production) ; ** Central Eastern Europe: AT, PL, CZ, SK, HU, SL Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 5
Leading position in corrugated packaging in Poland and Turkey Poland
Turkey
2.9 bn m2
2.5 bn m2
Mondi
Mondi
15%
16%
Olmuksa (50% IP) 13% incl DS Smith Turkey
11% Stora Enso
Other 49%
Other 51% 9%
Smurfit Kappa 6% 6%
DS Smith
TFP
8%
10% Modem Karton (Eren)
6%
Kaplamin Dentas (SCA minority)
Source: Mondi management estimates and Henry Poole Consulting, 2010 (based on production figures 2009) Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 6
Mondi is focused on high growth corrugated packaging markets 8 biggest European corrugated markets 2010 (size in bn m2 and growth) 8.4 6.4
5.4
4.3
3.9
3.0
CAGR
2.9
7.0%
6.6%
2007-2010
2.7
6.8%
2010-2014 4.5% 2.6%
1.9%
1.9% 0.9%
-1.7%
-1.7%
0.8%
0.7%
-2.4%
0.8%
-2.8% -4.4%
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
UK
Poland
Turkey
Russia
Source: ICCA Global Corrugated Forecast Report 2010-2014, September 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 7
Growth rates Virgin Containerboard VCB demand growth Europe 2006 – 2010 5.8%
5.7% 4.9%
0.2%
-8.2% 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010e
Source: RISI World Containerboard Forecast, 2010, 2007 | European Paper Packaging Forecast, 2010, 2007, 2006 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 8
Corrugated market is reasonably well balanced European demand back to pre-crisis levels, but further growth differs by region Western European demand growth likely to flatten in the short-term CEE & Russia demand growth of >5% expected
European Virgin Containerboard (VCB) supply Net capacity contraction during the crisis of -1% to -2% is sustained Reduced imports into Europe No planned or expected major capacity expansions (largely due to fibre constraints)
European Recycled Containerboard (RCB) supply Net capacity expansion vs. pre-crisis of +2% Market balanced with increased exports No announced major capacity expansions for the next 2 years
Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 9
ECO7 Pros Poland was net exporter of recovered paper before ECO7, now balanced Poland is net importer of RCB (800 kt in 2009). ECO7 can sell over 50% into Poland with low transport costs ECO7 is well integrated downstream theoretically 56% into Mondi’s Polish box plants, de facto 33% theoretically 89% into Mondi’s Central European (AT/DE/PL) box plants, de facto 35%
Lightweight grades enjoy in general +5% higher growth rates than RCB overall Mill synergies and sales synergies with Kraftliner Cons RCB has a flat cost curve and low entry barriers Prowell’s new machine at the border to Poland drove recovered paper prices up and is a competitor for RCB
Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 10
Mondi enjoys benefits in wood costs Softwood pulpwood cost at mill (EUR/m3sub) 3Q 2009 4Q 2009 43 43 40 36 36 33 33
25 25 20 21
22 22
22 23
RUS WE
US South
US North
South Africa
33 33
36 37
37
39 39
34 34
27 27
Brazil Slovakia Czech
France Austria Poland Sweden Germany China Northeast
Source: Pöyry Cost Competitiveness Update, January 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 11
Cost curve virgin containerboard WTKL delivered costs Frankfurt
Unbleached kraftliner delivered costs Frankfurt
EUR/t
700
2009/IV
EUR/t
600
2009/IV Delivered Costs
600
Delivered Costs 500
to Frankfurt
500
to Frankfurt 400
1
400
2 1
4
3
2
300 300 200
1.
Richards Bay PM2
2.
Syktyvkar PM21
200
100
100 0 0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
Swiecie PM5
2.
Swiecie PM1
3.
Swiecie PM2
4.
Steti PM1
0 0
500
1.000
Cumulative capacity, 1000 t/a
1 USD = 0.684 EUR 1 EUR = 1.462 USD
1.
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
Cumulative capacity, 1000 t/a
1 USD = 0.684 EUR 1 EUR = 1.462 USD
Source: Pöyry Cost Competitiveness Update, January 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 12
Cost curve recycled containerboard Highly competitive with weighted average costs in first quartile EUR/t
2009/IV
500 450 Delivered costs to Frankfurt
400 350 4
300
3 2
250 1
Mondi weighted average
200 1. Swiecie PM7 2. Swiecie PM3
150
3. Raubling PM7 4. Raubling PM5
100 0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
- Cumulative capacity, 1 000 t/a Source: Pöyry Cost Competitiveness Update, January 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 13
FX-rates of PLN and RUB are important for the profitability of Containerboard Swiecie CB Sales volume LTM
Syktyvkar CB Sales volume LTM
1 145 kt
217 kt
Domestic VCB Export VCB
81 (7%)
Domestic RCB
285 (25%)
555 (48%)
Domestic
Export
97 (45%)
120 (55%)
223 (20%) Export RCB
Source: Mondi Information; LTM Jul 2009 – Jun 2010 Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 14
Mondi as the corrugated business of choice Pros Focus on low cost virgin containerboard Where Europe is an importer And new capacities are not planned
Marketing policy of Kraftliner substitutes as a growing niche Difficult to replicate for most competitors
Well invested asset base with high free cash flow generation Cons More cyclical due to lower level of forward integration Management challenges of more difficult emerging markets (Russia/Turkey)
Investor and Analyst site visit, Syktyvkar and Świecie, 2 – 4 November 2010
PAGE 15
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