Modul 04 - Pengambilan Keputusan Lawan Alam - Keputusan Dalam Situasi Risiko

 

BFLZO [JQ@ZOCDGDH

[jhedbacodh @jputusdh Bdhdmjrcdo [jhedbacodh @jputusdh Odwdh Dodb - @jputusdh ldodb Yctudsc Qcsc`f

Nd`uotds

[rferdb Ytulc

Nd`uotds J`fhfbc ldh Acshcs

Bdhdmjbjh

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Lcsusuh Fojg

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Jrc Bdrodpd, Y.J., BB.

Dastrdit

@fbpjtjhsc

Bfluo chc bjhmjods`dh tjhtdhe pjhedbacodh `jputusdh odwdh dodb ’ `jputusdh ldodb sctudsc rcsc`f.

Lcgdrdp`dh bdgdscswd bdbpu bjhejrtc tjhtdhe pjhedbacodh `jputusdh odwdh dodb ’ `jputusdh

 

ldodb sctudsc rcsc`f.

@fhsjpsc Qcsc`f Adhyd` drtc bjhejhdc rcsc`f chc, hdbuh pdld ldsdrhyd adgwd rcsc`f bjrupd`dh sjsudtu, ldodb gdo chc ydhe d`dh lctjrcbd dtdu lctdheeuhe fojg sjsjfrdhe sjadedc `fhsj`ujhsc dtdu d`cadt ldrc sudtu tchld`dh. t chld`dh.

Ajrc`ut chc lcajrc`dh ajajrdpd drtc odch ldrc rcsc`f= 4.

Qc Qcsc sc`f `f dld dldod odg g `jsj `jsjbp bpdt dtdh dh tcb tcbau auoh ohyd yd `jr `jrue uecd cdh. h.

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Qc Qcsc sc`f `f dld dldod odg g `jbuh `jbuhe` e`ch chdh dh tcba tcbauo uohy hyd d `jru `jruec ecdh dh..

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Qcsc Qc sc`f `f dldo dldodg dg `j `jtc tcld ld`p `pds dstc tcdh dh..

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Ljpfsctf

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Ajoc Ydgdb

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\chld`dh

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Odmu [jrtubaugdh J`fhfbc

[jhedbacodh @jputusdh Bdhdmjrcdo Jrc Bdrodpd,, Y.J., BB.

[usdt Adgdh Dmdr ldh jOjdrhche gttp=//www.bjriuaudhd.di.cl

 

J[L 2 1:; (;,9:) + 45: (;,>:) 2 1;4,1: J[AY 2 9:; (;,9:) + 41: (;,>:) 2 1;9,5: Fojg `drjhd ctu J[ 2 1;9,5: tjrajsdr, bd`d lcputus`dh uhtu` bjbajoc sdgdb. Lcldodb  mdhe`d pdhmdhe, sjidrd rdtd-rdtd d`dh lcpjrfojg `juhtuhedh (ajrupd auhed) sjajsdr  1;9,5: mutd rupcdg.

Hcodc @jsjbpdtdh ydhe Gcodhe (Fppfrtuh ( Fppfrtuhcty cty Ofss )

Hcodc `jsjbpdtdh ydhe gcodhe uhtu` sudtu gdsco dldodg sjmubodg pdy sjmubodg  pdy fnn  ydhe,   ydhe, fojg `drjhd tcld` tcld ` lcpcocgh lcpcocghyd yd sudtu dotjrhdtc dotjrhdtcn/tch n/tchld`d ld`dh h ljhe ljhedh dh  pdy-fnn   tjrajsdr adec `jmdlcdh tcld` pdstc ydhe sjajhdrhyd tjrmdlc.

Zhtu` Zhtu ` bjhjhtu`d bjhjhtu`dh h `jputusd `jputusdh h ajrldsdr ajrldsdr`dh `dh hcodc hcodc `jsjbpdt `jsjbpdtdh dh ydhe gcodhe gcodhe (JFO), (JFO), sjidrd sjidrd rdscfhdo lcpcocg ldrc hcodc JFO (jxpjitjl ( jxpjitjl fppfrtuhcty ofss) ofss) ydhe bchcbub (tjr`jico). Gdo chc lcbd`sul lcbd `sul`dh `dh uhtu` uhtu` bjhegch bjhegchldrc ldrc rdsd pjhyjsdo pjhyjsdodh/` dh/`jtcl jtcld`pu d`pudsdh dsdh lc`jbulc lc`jbulcdh dh gdrc. gdrc. Mdlc prchscp ldsdr JFO dldodg bjbaudt bchcbub `jruecdh ydhe lcsjada`dh pjbcocgdh dotjrhdtcn  tjrtjhtu.

Zhtu` bjhegctuhe `jsjbpdtdh ydhe gcodhe (fppfrtuhcty ( fppfrtuhcty ofss) ofss) sjtcdp pjrcstcwd, pjrtdbd `doc dldo dldodg dg

bjhe bjhecl cljh jhtc tcnc nc`d `dsc sc`d `dh h

tc tchl hld` d`dh dh

tjra tjradc dc` `

uhtu uhtu` `

sj sjtc tcdp dp

pjrc pjrcst stcw cwd, d,

`j `jbu bulc lcdh dh

bjheurdh bjhe urdhe`dh e`dh  pdy fnn -hyd -hyd ( pdy pjrcstcwd d tjrsjaut) tjrsjaut) ljhedh ljhedh  pdy fnn  pjrcstcwd-pjrcstcwd   pjrcstcwd-pjrcstcwd  pdy fnn   pjrcstcw odchhyd.

Hcodc Gdrdpdh Chnfrbdsc Yjbpurhd (Jxpjitjl ( Jxpjitjl ^douj fn[jrnjit Chnfrbdtcfh) 

Hcodc gdrdpdh chnfrbdsc sjbpurhd (jxpjitjl ( jxpjitjl vdouj fn pjrnjit chnfrbdtcfh, chnfrbdtcfh , J^ fn  [C   [C (J^[C)) dldodg dld odg sjocscg sjocscg dhtdrd dhtdrd hcod hcodcc gdrdpdh gdrdpdh ljhedh ljhedh hcodc hcodc chnfrbds chnfrbdscc (jxpj jxpjitjl itjl vdouj vdouj wctg pjrnjit  chnfrbdtcfh,, J^ chnfrbdtcfh J^ wctg wctg [C  [C (J^U[C)) ldh hcodc gdrdpdh tdhpd chnfrbdsc sjbpurhd (jxpjitjl  ( jxpjitjl  vdouj wctgfut pjrnjit chnfrbdtcfh, chnfrbdtcfh, J^ wctgfut  [C  [C (J^)).

Lcrubus`dh = J^ fn [C 2 J^ wctg [C ’ J^ wctgfut [C J^[C 2 J^U[C ’ J^ HGCY 2 HG\CY ’ HG 1;45

5

[jhedbacodh @jputusdh Bdhdmjrcdo Jrc Bdrodpd,, Y.J., BB.

[usdt Adgdh Dmdr ldh jOjdrhche gttp=//www.bjriuaudhd.di.cl

 

Hcodc Hcodc gdrdp gdrdpdh dh tdhpd tdhpd chnfr chnfrbds bdscc sj sjbp bpurh urhd d lcsjau lcsjautt mued mued hcodc hcodc gdrdp gdrdpdh dh ld ldodb odb `j `jdld dlddh dh `jtcld`pdstcdh. J^UC (HG\CY) 2 gdsco pjr`docdh dhtdrd bd`scbub adrcs (hcodc pdy (hcodc  pdy fnn  tjrajsdr)  tjrajsdr) ljhedh

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prfadacoctds. 

J^ (HG) 2 hcodc gdrdpdh tjrajsdr ldrc sjtcdp dotjrhdtcn dtdu tchld`dh.

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J^[C (HGCY) 2 mubodg bd`scbub ydhe ldpdt lcadydr`dh fojg pjhedbacodh pjhedbacodh `jputusdh uhtu` bjbpjrfojg chnfrbdsc sjbpurhd.

1;45

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[jhedbacodh @jputusdh Bdhdmjrcdo Jrc Bdrodpd,, Y.J., BB.

[usdt Adgdh Dmdr ldh jOjdrhche gttp=//www.bjriuaudhd.di.cl

 

Ldntdr [ustd`d Qdigbdlc Deus \rcfhf, [jhedbacodh @jputusdh Bdhdmjrcdo , Ydojbad Jbpdt, 1;41 \dyofr UA CCC, Chtrfluitcfh tf Bdhdejbjht Yicjhij, Yicjhij, Hjw Mjrsjy [rjhtcij Gdoo, 1;;5 Gjczjr Mdy, A.Qdhljr, Bdhdmjbjh Fpjrdsc , Ydojbad Jbpdt, Md`drtd, 1;4; \gfbds O Yddty, [jhedbacodh @jputusdh adec pdrd [jbcbpch = [rfsjs Gcrdr`c Dhdoctc` uhtu` pjhedbacodh `jputusdh ldodb sctudsc ydhe `fbpoj`s, `fbpoj`s, [\. [usd`d Achdwdh, Achdwdh, 4339 Ycswdhtf, (1;;:), Qcsjt Fpjrdsc , Jrodheed, Md`drtd B.Yydbsuo Bd–drcn (1;;9), Bdhdmjbjh Fpjrdsc , Erdschlf,Md`drtd Yfnydh Dssdurc (1;;4), Bdhdmjbjh Fpjrdsc , A[NJ, Md`drtd Bdrtchcig, (1;;9), Fpjrdtcfh Bdhdejbjht , [rjhtcij Gdoo, Hjw Sfr`

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[jhedbacodh @jputusdh Bdhdmjrcdo Jrc Bdrodpd,, Y.J., BB.

[usdt Adgdh Dmdr ldh jOjdrhche gttp=//www.bjriuaudhd.di.cl