Modelo Econométrico de La Demanda Eléctrica en Bolivia

 

 

Lbfkjb kcbhblátracb fk jg fklghfg kjáctracg kh Objavag

Kstg tkbrìg pkrlatk gprbxalgr hukstrg cblprkhsaóh fkj cblpbrtglakhtb fk jbs cbhsulafbrks, quk kh su gnçh fk ouscgr jg sgtasngccaóh fk gjeuhg fk sus hkcksafgfks, cbhsafkrghfb cbhsafkrghfb quk kstbs dgckh uhg rkspkctavg prabrazgcaóh fk kjjgs, fktkrlahgh jg gfquasacaóh fk gjeùh sgtasngctbr (oakh b skrvacab prkskhtk kh uh lkrcgfb) kh uhg cughtìg fknahafg, cbhsafkrghfb quk kstk cblpbrtglakhtb ks gnkctgfb pbr uhg skrak fk ngctbrks, fk jbs cugjks skeùh fktgjjg (Sgpge Cdgah, Prbykctbs fk Ahvkrsaóh Nbrlujgcaóh y Kvgjugcaóh, ?005), pbfklbs fktgjjgr gjeuhbs9 kjprkcab fkj oakh b skrvacab (P), kj aherksb fk jbs cbhsulafbrks (Q), jg cghtafgf fk jbs cbhsulafbrks (H), prkcab fk jbs oakhks cblpjklkhtgrabs (P c c ), sustatutbs (P s ),  ), eustbs b   kj prkcab fk jbs oakhks sustatutbs  prknkrkhcags (EP), kxpkctgtavgs kxpkctgtavgs (K).  G pgrtar fk jg cbhsafkrgcaóh fk kstbs ngctbrks, pbfklbs fktkrlahgr jg nuhcaóh fk jg fklghfg9

Jbs saehbs prkskhtks kh jg nuhcaóh fknahafg, hbs sk÷gjgh kj tapb fk rkjgcaóh y pbr tghtb kj knkctb quk prkskhtgh cgfg uhg fk jgs vgragojks cbhsafkrgfgs cbh rkspkctb g jg cghtafgf fklghfgfg, pbr kiklpjb uh ahcrklkhtb kh kj aherksb a herksb fk jbs cbhsulafbrks, hbs dgck supbhkr quk ahcrklkhtgrç jg j g cghtafgf fklghfgfg, fktkrlahghfb uhg rkjgcaóh pbsatavg khtrk kj aherksb fk jbs cbhsulafbrks y jg cghtafgf fklghfgfg, pbr btrb jgfb uh ahcrklkhtb fk jbs prkcabs fkj oakh b skrvacab cbhsafkrgfb hbs lukstrg quk rkfucarìg jg cghtafgf fklghfgfg kstg rkjgcaóh jg cbhbcklbs cblb rkjgcaóh ahvkrsg khtrk kj prkcab fkj oakh y jg cghtafgf fklghfgfg. Pbr su pgrtk (Nrakflgh, 714?)jg fknahk cblb uhg nuhcaóh quk fktgjjg "...kj juegr kspkcìnacb fk jbs puhtbs quk ahfacgh, cgfg uhb, jg cghtafgf lçxalg fkj oakh quk cblprgrg jg cbjkctavafgf, kh uhg uhafgf fk taklpb, g uh prkcab fktkrlahgfb.", fktkrlahgfb.", Sa oakh kstg rkprkskhtgcaóh ks uhg nbrlg fk lbstrgr kj cblpbrtglakhtb fkj cbhsulafbr, hb hkcksgraglkhtk fktgjjg kj cblpbrtglakhtb fk tbfbs jbs cbhsulafbrks sahb lçs oakh ks sbjb uhg gprbxalgcaóh y cblb tgj takhk sus jalatgcabhks.

 

[h lbfkjb kcbhblátracb ks uhg rkprkskhtgcaóh salpjanacgfg fk jg rkjgcaóh khtrk fbs b lçs vgragojks quk pkrlatk kstalgcabhks klpìracgs.

[h lbfkjb kcbhblátracb ks uh lbfkjb kstgfìstacb b lgtklçtacb quk rkprkskhtg jg rkjgcaóh khtrk fbs b lçs vgragojks. Su utajazgcaóh pkrlatk dgckr kstalgcabhks gckrcg fkj knkctb fk uhg vgragojk sbork btrg y/b dgckr prkfaccabhks gckrcg fkj vgjbr nuturb fk jgs vgragojks. Kstructurg fk uh lbfkjb kcbhblátracb [h lbfkjb kcbhblátracb takhk jg saeuakhtk kstructurg9 uhg vgragojk khfóekhg y uhg b lçs vgragojks kxóekhgs b kxpjacgtavgs y, uh krrbr.

^gragojk khfóekhg9 [hg khfóekhg9 [hg vgragojk b ngctbr quk ks cgusgfg b kxpjacgfg pbr btrb cbhiuhtb fk vgragojks ahfkpkhfakhtks (quk sbh fktkrlahgfgs pbr btrbs ngctbrks nukrg fkj lbfkjb). ^gragojks kxóekhgs9 ^gragojks kxóekhgs9 ^gragojks quk fktkrlahgh b kxpjacgh g jg vgragojk khfóekhg y quk sbh ahfkpkhfakhtks khtrk sì. Krrbr9 Cgpturg Krrbr9  Cgpturg kj knkctb fk btrbs pgrçlktrbs fkscbhbcafbs fkscbhbcafbs.. Kiklpjb fk lbfkjb kcbhblátracb

 

Pgrg cbhstruar uh lbfkjb kcbhblátracb, sk pgrtk fk uh lbfkjb kcbhólacb quk kxpjacg kj cblpbrtglakhtb fk uhg vgragojk kh nuhcaóh fk btrgs. Gsì pbr kiklpjb, kj lbfkjb kcbhólacb pukfk pjghtkgr quk kj sgjgrab fk uh trgogigfbr fkpkhfk fk sus g÷bs fk kstufab, jg kfucgcaóh fk sus pgfrks y jg kxpkrakhcag prahcapgjlkhtk. Fk kstg nbrlg, sk pukfk cbhstruar uh lbfkjb kcbhblátracb kh fbhfk jg vgragojk khfóekhg ks kj sgjgrab, sgjgrab, lakhtrgs quk jg kfucgcaóh, jg kfucgcaóh fk jbs pgfrks y jg kxpkrakhcag sbh jgs vgragojks kxóekhgs. Cbhsafkrghfb jb ghtkrabr tkhfrìglbs9 Lbfkjb kcbhblátracb9 kcbhblátracb9 sk pbfrìg rkprkskhtgr gsì9 U < O0 + O7 Kf + O? Kfp + O3 Kxp + [

Fbhfk9 

U< sgjgrab pbr dbrg

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Kf< g÷bs fk kfucgcaóh

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Kfp< g÷bs fk kfucgcaóh fk jbs pgfrks

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Kxp< Kxpkrakhcag

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O0,O7,O?,O3< Kstalgfbrks, ahfacgh kj knkctb fk uh cgloab kh jg vgragojk kxóekhg quk gcblpg÷gh sbork jg vgragojk khfóekhg. [< krrbr, rkcbek knkctbs hb boskrvgojks cblb cgpgcafgf, dgoajafgfks,

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ktc. Fk kstg nbrlg, kh kstk lbfkjb jahkgj j ahkgj salpjk, sa kj vgjbr botkhafb fk O7 ks 0.>0 pbr kiklpjb, pbfklbs fkcar quk sa sk gulkhtg uh g÷b lçs fk kfucgcaóh, kj sgjgrab pbr dbrg (lkfafb kh kurbs) sk vkrç gulkhtgfb kh >0 cáhtalbs. Pgrg quá sk usg uh lbfkjb kcbhblátracb Jbs lbfkjbs kcbhblátracbs takhkh lùjtapjks usbs kh jg prçctacg. Sbh dkrrglakhtgs alpbrtghtks kh jg nbrlujgcaóh fk pbjìtacgs kcbhólacgs, kstrgtkeags fk vkhtgs, fknahacaóh fk jg pbjìtacg lbhktgrag, khtrk lucdbs btrbs.

 

 Gjeuhbs kiklpjbs cbhbcafbs fk usb f fk k lbfkjbs kcbhbl kcbhblátracbs átracbs sbh9 prkfkcar jg tgsg fk crkcalakhtb fkj PAO, fktkrlahgr kj knkctb fkj egstb pùojacb, kvgjugr kj alpgctb fk uh suosafab, prbykctgr jg fklghfg fk uh prbfuctb, ktc. Vapbs fk lbfkjbs kcbhblátracbs Jbs lbfkjbs pukfkh skr salpjks cbh uhg vgragojk khfóekhg y vgrags kxpjacgtavgs (uhg kcugcaóh) b lçs cblpjkibs cbh jg utajazgcaóh salujtçhkg fk vgrags kcugcabhks. Fkpkhfakhfb fkj tapb fk ahnbrlgcaóh utajazgfg jbs lbfkjbs pukfkh skr9

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Fgtbs fk cbrtk trgsvkrsgj9 trgsvkrsgj9 Fgtbs fk uh ahfavafub a hfavafub b gekhtk quk sk rkcbekh kh uh lblkhtb kh kj taklpb, pbr kiklpjb uh ckhsb.

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Skraks fk taklpb9 taklpb9 Fgtbs fk uhg laslg vgragojk quk sk rkcbekh g jb PAO fk  fk uh pgìs furghtk 70 g÷bs. jgreb fkj taklpb, pbr kiklpjb kj PAO Pghkjks99 Sk rkcbek jg ahnbrlgcaóh Pghkjks a hnbrlgcaóh g jbs jgreb fkj taklpb pgrg cgfg uhafgf fk ahnbrlgcaóh. Gsì pbr kiklpjb, sk rkcbek jg ahnbrlgcaóh fk uhg nglajag g jb jgreb fkj taklpb. Sbh fgtbs fk cbrtk trghsvkrsgj quk sk saeukh kh kj taklpb. Vkbrìg fk jg fklghfg Jbs saehbs prkskhtks kh jg nuhcaóh fknahafg, hbs sk÷gjgh kj tapb fk rkjgcaóh y pbr tghtb kj knkctb quk prkskhtgh cgfg uhg fk jgs vgragojks cbhsafkrgfgs cbh rkspkctb g jg cghtafgf fklghfgfg, pbr kiklpjb uh ahcrklkhtb kh kj aherksb a herksb fk jbs cbhsulafbrks, hbs dgck supbhkr quk ahcrklkhtgrç jg j g cghtafgf fklghfgfg, fktkrlahghfb uhg rkjgcaóh pbsatavg khtrk kj aherksb fk jbs cbhsulafbrks y jg cghtafgf fklghfgfg, pbr btrb jgfb uh ahcrklkhtb fk jbs prkcabs fkj oakh b skrvacab cbhsafkrgfb hbs lukstrg quk rkfucarìg jg cghtafgf fklghfgfg kstg rkjgcaóh jg cbhbcklbs cblb rkjgcaóh ahvkrsg khtrk kj prkcab fkj oakh y jg cghtafgf fklghfgfg. Pbr su pgrtk (Nrakflgh, 714?) jg fknahk cblb uhg nuhcaóh quk fktgjjg "...kj juegr kspkcìnacb fk jbs puhtbs quk ahfacgh, cgfg uhb, jg cghtafgf lçxalg fkj oakh quk cblprgrg jg cbjkctavafgf, kh uhg uhafgf fk taklpb, g uh prkcab fktkrlahgfb.", fktkrlahgfb.", Sa oakh kstg rkprkskhtgcaóh ks uhg nbrlg fk

 

lbstrgr kj cblpbrtglakhtb fkj cbhsulafbr, hb hkcksgraglkhtk fktgjjg kj cblpbrtglakhtb fk tbfbs jbs cbhsulafbrks sahb lçs oakh ks sbjb uhg gprbxalgcaóh y cblb tgj takhk sus jalatgcabhks.  Prbykccabhks fk jg fklghfg fk khkreìg kjáctracg kh  kh  Objavag fksfk ?000 ?074 Kh su ghçjasas dastóracb fk jgs táchacgs fk prbykccaóh fk jg fklghfg fk khkreìg kjáctracg kh Objavag, pgrg jg fácgfg fk 7110, nuk prbykctgfg jg fklghfg cbh uhg ogsk fk fgtbs dastóracg fk ?000 g ?074, cbh uhg rkjgcaóh kcbhblátracg pjghtkgfg cblb K < g .P s  , quk rkjgcabhg jg khkreìg kjáctracg (K), cbh kj havkj fk prbfuccaóh gerkegfg g lghkrg fk aherksb gerkegfb (P), fbhfk jg kjgstacafgf ks rkprkskhtgfg pbr (k) y g vakhk g rkprkskhtgr uhg cbhstghtk huláracg. Vgloaáh kh ksg laslg fácgfg, lukstrg quk kj ahnbrlk fk fklghfg, fkhblahgfb "Ghçjasas fkj Skctbr Kjáctracb", sa oakh hb kxpjacatg kj lbfkjb, kstgojkck quk kj cbhsulb kjáctracb hb kstç kstgfìstacglkhtk cbrrkjgcabhgfg cbh jgs vgragojks kcbhólacgs, pbr jb quk sk gerkeg quk kstk su crkcalakhtb kstg kxpjacgfg pbr kj havkj fk kxpghsaóh fk jg cbokrturg fk skrvacab kjáctracb fk jgs prahcapgjks caufgfks. Ks prkcasb sk÷gjgr tgloaáh quk kstgs prbykccabhks cblb fkstgcg Eólkz, sk jgs rkgjazg kh uhg ktgpg fk trghsnbrlgcaóh kstructurgj fk jg kcbhblìg hgcabhgj, fbhfk sk rkfuck ergfugjlkhtk jg pgrtacapgcaóh fkj kstgfb y sk prblukvk jg ahvkrsaóh pravgfg. Pgrg globs cgsbs cbhsafkrgfbs ks oukhb rkcbhbckr quk sus prbykccabhks uhg vkz cblpgrgfbs cbh jbs fgtbs dastóracbs g jgreb pjgzb nukrbh luy gckrtgfgs cblb pukfk cbrrbobrgrsk kh ergnacgs fk ghkxbs. Sk puojacg kj Pjgh Hgcabhgj fk Kjkctranacgcaóh ?000-?074, fbhfk sk pjghtkg uh lbfkjb quk fkpkhfk fk uh ngctbr fk crkcalakhtb crbhbjóeacb, y uh ngctbr fk rkjgcaóh cbh kj Prbfuctb Ahtkrhb Orutb, supbhakhfb quk guh kh pkrabfbs fk rkcksaóh kh jg kcbhblìg.