Metodos de Proyección de La Demanda

 

  SLGYCX[G@D@ C[PDPDJ @C HMJGYDX IDKSJPD@ KGCLKGD[ D@NGLG[PXDPGYD[, EC[PGÛL CNVXC[DXGDJ C GLIMXNÄPGKD C[KSCJD EC[PGÛL CNVXC[DXGDJ

KDXXCXD?  KMLPDHGJG@D@ W DS@GPMXGD D[GELDPSXD? VXMWCKPM[ CKMLMNGKM[ @MKCLPC? GLE. XDNGXM ODXDNGJJM KGKJM? MKPDYM ‚D„  C[PS@GDLPC? NDXGJWL PSIGÔM PCND? NÇPM@M[ @C VXMWCKKGÛL @C JD @CNDL@D ICKBD? 80 LMYGCNHXC 8686

 

Jd csclkgd `c jd cvdjudkgûl `c prmycktms cstä mrgcltd`d d kmnpdrdr uld glvcrsgûl m `csglvcrsgûl dktudj kml cj ijuom `c kdod quc sc cstgnd mkurrd cl cj iuturm, cl cj kdsm quc sc mptc pmr cockutdr cj prmycktm. @d`m quc jds sgtudkgmlcs sml kdnhgdltcs, jd gnpmrtdlkgd `c jd prc`gkkgûl sc `chc kmlsg`crdr smjm kmnm uld nc`gkgûl `c cvg`clkgds glkmnpjctds, hdsd`ds cl kmnpmrtdngcltms `c sgtudkgmlcs sgngjdrcs m glicrclkgds `c `dtms cstd`îstgkms cxgstcltcs. Cl cstc kmltcxtm, cxgstcl `gvcrsds tçklgkds tçk lgkds quc pcrngtcl cicktudr cstds prc`gkkgmlcs pdrd pdr d quc cj cvdjud`mr `c prmycktms `ctcrnglc jd cxgstclkgd m lm `c ul ncrkd`m pmtclkgdj pdrd cj  prm`uktm quc cj prmycktm prmpmlc. Dj rcspcktm, cstds tçklgkds m nctm`mjmeîds `c prmyckkgûl sc puc`cl kjdsgigkdr cl?

NCPM@M[ KSDLPGPDPGYD[ Jds tçklgkds kudltgtdtgvds `c prc`gkkgûl pmsccl jd vcltdod `c quc, dj cstdr cxprcsd`ds ndtcnätgkdncltc, su prmkc`gngcltm `c käjkujm y jms supucstms cnpjcd`ms kdrckcl `c tm`d dnhgeúc`d`. @ms erupms pcrtclckcl d cstd kjdsgigkdkgûl?

Jms nm`cjms kdusdjcs Cj supucstm kmlkcptudj `c cstc nm`cjm sc hdsd cl quc cj erd`m `c glijuclkgd `c jds vdrgdhjcs quc dicktdl cj kmnpmrtdngcltm `cj ncrkd`m pcrndlckcl cstdhjc. Jms nm`cjms kdusdjcs rcqugcrcl quc cxgstd uld rcjdkgûl cltrc jms vdjmrcs `c dnhds vdrgdhjcs (`cpcl`gcltcs c gl`cpcl`gcltcs), y quc jms `c jd vdrgdhjc gl`cpcl`gcltc scdl kmlmkg`ms m quc su cstgndkgûl mtmreuc uld ndymr kmligdlzd, cl cstc prmkcsm sc `csdrrmjjd cl trcs ctdpds?   Jd g`cltgigkdkgûl `c uld m näs vdrgdhjcs



 

  Jd scjckkgûl `c jd rcjdkgûl quc vglkujc d jds vdrgdhjcs kdusdjcs kml cj kmnpmrtdngcltm

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`cj ncrkd`m1 y   Jd vdjg`dkgûl `cj nm`cjm `c prmlûstgkms



Jms nm`cjms kdusdjcs `c usm näs irckucltc sml?

Cj nm`cjm `c rcercsgûl Cj dläjgsgs `c rcercsgûl pcrngtc cjdhmrdr ul nm`cjm `c prmlûstgkm hdsd`m cl cstds vdrgdhjcs, cj kudj puc`c tclcr `cs`c uld bdstd l vdrgdhjcs gl`cpcl`gcltcs. Jd cjckkgûl `cj lÿncrm `c vdrgdhjcs gl`cpcl`gcltcs `cpcl`c `cj tmtdj `c mhscrvdkgmlcs mhtclg`ds `c jd vdrgdhjc `cpcl`gcltc y `c kd`d uld `c jds vdrgdhjcs cxpjgkdtgvds. Cj nm`cjm `c rcercsgûl sc hdsd cl trcs supucstms häsgkms?   Jms crrmrcs `c jd rcercsgûl tgclcl uld `gstrghukgûl `gstrgh ukgûl lmrndj, kml nc`gd kcrm y vdrgdlzd

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kmlstdltc.   Jms crrmrcs lm cstäl kmrrcjdkgmld`ms cltrc cjjms.

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  Pm`ds jds vdrgdhjcs dldjgzd`ds sc kmnpmrtdl `c imrnd jglcdj m sml suskcptghjcs `c



jglcdjgzdr

Jglcdj [gnpjc? Sld smjm ckudkgûl/ Sld smjd vdrgdhjc cxpjgkdtgvd/ uld rcjdkgûl jglcdj.       

Nÿjtgpjc? Sld smjd ckudkgûl/ vdrgds vdrgdhjcs cxpjgkdtgvds/ rcjdkgûl jglcdj cltrc vdrgdhjcs.   ∞   ∘  

Nujtgckudkgmldj? Ydrgds ckudkgmlcs/ Nukbds vdrgdhjcs/ Xcjdkgûl `c tm`m tgpm

Lm jglcdj? Sld smjd ckudkgml5 Nukbds vdrgdhjcs cxpjgkdtgvds/ Xcjdkgûl lm jglcdjcs Cj nm`cjm ckmlmnçtrgkm Cs ul sgstcnd `c ckudkgmlcs cstd`îstgkds quc gltcrrcjdkgmldl d jds dktgvg`d`cs `c `gicrcltcs scktmrcs `c jd ckmlmnîd y dyu`dl d cvdjudr jd rcpcrkusgûl smhrc jd `cndl`d `c ul prm`uktm m scrvgkgm Nm`cjm pdrd cstgndr jd `cndl`d `c ul prm`uktm, quc pdrtc `c jd hdsc quc cj prckgm sc `ctcrngld pmr jd gltcrdkkgûl `c jd micrtd y jd `cndl`d. G.  GG. 

Dläjgsgs tçklgkm `cj iclûnclm Cspckgigkdkgmlcs Cspckgigkdkgml cs `c jds vdrgdhjcs kmltclg`d

GGG. 

Cspckgigkdkgmlcs Cspckgigkdkgml cs `cj nm`cjm ndtcnätgkm

GY. 

Cspckgigkdkgmlcs Cspckgigkdkgml cs `cj nm`cjm ndtcnätgkm

Y. 

Ycrgigkdkgûl `cj nm`cjm

 

YG. 

Kmlstrukkgûl `cj nm`cjm ckmlmnçtrgkm

YGG. 

Nçtm`m `c cstgndkgûl `cj nm`cjm

YGGG. 

Ssm `cj nm`cjm

Cj nm`cjm `c glsunm  ‛  prm`uktm  prm`uktm (nçtm`m `c jms kmcigkgcltcs tçklgkms). Vcrngtc g`cltgigkdr jds rcjdkgmlcs gltcr gl`ustrgdjcs quc sc prm`ukcl cltrc scktmrcs `c jd ckmlmnîd, nc`gdltc uld ndtrgz quc gnpjgkd supmlcr cj usm kmcigkgcltcs tçklgkms igoms pmr  pdrtc `c jds `gstgltds gl`ustrgds. Vdrd cstgndr jd `cndl`d `c ul scktmr cspckîigkm, cj nm`cjm `cskmnpmlc jd `cndl`d cltrc  hgclcs igldjcs c gltcrnc`gms, y cstdhjckc sus rcjdkgmlcs utgjgzdl`m jms kmcigkgcltcs kmc igkgcltcs tçklgkms. Cs d`ckud`m kudl`m jd `cndl`d `c ul scktmr cstä cl cstrckbd rcjdkgûl kml jd dktgvg`d` `cj scktmr, y jms `cnäs cjcncltms quc puc`dl cstdr `ctcrngläl`mjd sml `c pmkd gnpmrtdlkgd. Cstc nm`cjm huskd `ctcrngldr cj erd`m `c rcpcrkusgûl quc jd dktgvg`d` `c ul scktmr tgclc smhrc jms rcstdltcs.

Nm`cjms `c scrgcs `c tgcnpm [c rcigcrcl d jd nc`gkgûl `c vdjmrcs `c uld vdrgdhjc cl cj tgcnpm d gltcrvdjms cspdkgd`ms ulgimrncncltc. Cj mhoctgvm `c jd g`cltgigkdkgûl `c jd glimrndkgûl bgstûrgkd cs `ctcrngldr ul pdtrûl häsgkm cl su kmnpmrtdngcltm, quc pmsghgjgtc jd prmyckkgûl iuturd `c jd vdrgdhjc `cscd`d. Vuc`cl `gstgleugrsc kudtrm kmnpmlcltcs häsgkms? tcl`clkgd

  kîkjgkm

 ‛ 

  ijuktudkgmlcs

 ‛ 

cstdkgmldjcs  ‛  vdrgdkgmlcs  vdrgdkgmlcs lm sgstcnätgkds.

Kmnpmlcltcs `c tcl`clkgd? [c rcigcrc dj krckgngcltm m `ckjgldkgûl cl cj jdrem pjdzm `cj vdjmr  prmnc`gm `c jd vdrgdhjc ccstu`gd`d. stu`gd`d. [u gnpmrtdl gnpmrtdlkgd kgd rd`gkd cl kmlsg`crdr jds ijuktudkgmlcs `c jd vdrgdhjc cl cj tgcnpm. Kmnpmlcltc kgkjm? Xcsujtd `c jd `gvcreclkgd sgelgigkdtgvd cltrc jd jîlcd `c tcl`clkgd  prmycktd`d y cj vdjmr rc rcdj dj quc cxbghd jd vdrgdhjc. Lm tgclc pdtrmlcs kmlstdltcs quc pcrngtd  prcvcr su mkurrclkgd, mkurrclkgd , ndelgtu` y `urdkgûl.

 

Kmnpmlcltcs cstdkgmldjcs? Cxbghcl ijuktudkgmlcs quc sc rcpgtcl pcrgû`gkdncltc y quc lmrndjncltc `cpcl`cl `c idktmrcs kmnm? kjgnd, trd`gkgûl, ctk. Kmnpmlcltc djcdtmrgm? Cs jd `csvgdkgûl quc sc puc`c bdjjdr cltrc ul kmnpmrtdngcltm rcdj kml cj prcvgsghjc pmr su jîlcd `c tcl`clkgd, idktmrcs kîkjgkms y cstdkgmldjcs. Cxgstcl nçtm`ms quc pcrngtcl cstgndr cj kmnpmrtdngcltm `c uld vdrgdhjc y quc dîsjdl, cl eclcrdj cj cicktm tcl`clkgd. Çstms sml?

Cj nçtm`m `c prmnc`gms nûvgjcs Sld scrgc krmlmjûegkd kml iucrtc cicktm cstdkgmldj bdkc rckmncl`dhjc cj usm `c ul prmnc`gm nûvgj sgnpjc `c ul lÿncrm `ctcrngld`m `c pcrgm`ms, quc lmrndjncltc cs `c jms kudtrm ÿjtgnms trgncstrcs. Cj prmnc`gm nûvgj sc mhtgclc?      

∔    > 

 

  +

;  

8 ; 

 

 



Cj digldngcltm cxpmlclkgdj Cstc nçtm`m, pdrd prmlmstgkdr cj vdjmr `c jds vcltds iuturds, tmnd ul pr prmnc`gm mnc`gm pml`crd`m `c jds vcltds rcdjcs `urdltc cj pcrgm`m y `cj prmlûstgkm rcdjgzd`m pdrd csc pcrgm`m. Jd cxprcsgûl quc rcprcscltd jd imrnd `c käjkujm cs jd sgeugcltc?  )  ̈+  ∞  (  )  (4∘∞)(

@ml`c ̈+ rcprcscltd cj prmlûstgkm pdrd cj prûxgnm pcrgm`m,  jd kmlstdltc `c digldngcltm,  ) cj prmlûstgkm `c jd `cndl`d rcdjgzd`m pdrd cj   jd `cndl`d rcdj `cj pcrgm`m vgecltc y (

 pcrgm`m vgecltc. (Bcgzcr & Xcl`cr, 8640)

Hghjgmerdiîd   Bcgzcr, O., & Xcl`cr, H. (8640). Vrglkgpgms `c d`nglgstrdkgû `c mpcrdkgmlcs.

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Nçxgkm? Vcdrsml .