Métodos de Pronósticos de Ventas

 

JÁSFCFU CD P]FHÕUSAEFU CD _DHSNU

 

JÁSFCFU CD P]FHÕUSAEFU CD _DHSNU 

Pnrn dgnmfrnr sus pgnhds y pgnhaoaeneaõh cd jnrkdtahi, gns djprdsns rdquadrdh gn dgnmfrneaõh ahaeang cd uhn prdvasaõh (prfhõstaefs (prfhõstaefs)) cd vdhtns, qud gds pdrjatarî prfydetnr pfsamgds vdhtns outurns efh mnsd n cntfs lastõraefs cd lastõraefs  cd gn jasjn djprdsn, dstf efh dg oah cd pgnhaoaenr, idstafhnr y efhtrfgnr gfs prdsupudstfs hdedsnrafs pnrn uh mudh usf cd gfs rdeursfs qud sdrîh hdedsnrafs pnrn ngenhznr gns jdtns prfpudstns

 

Prfhõstaefs cd vdhtns

 

Prfhõstaefs eunhtatntavfs 

Sfcfs dggfs pnrtdh, mîsaenjdhtd, cd uh supudstf efjòh2 qud gn cdjnhcn pnsncn saiud eadrtf pntrõh, pntrõh, y qud sa dstd pntrõh

pudcd sdr nhngazncf pfcrî utagaznrsd pnrn cdsnrrfggnr prfydeeafhds pnrn gn cdjnhcn outurn, supfhadhcf qud dg pntrõh efhtahòn nprfxajncnjdhtd cd gn jasjn ofrjn.  Cncf qud sd mnsnh dh ahofrjneaõh ahtdrhn (vdhtns), dh fensafhds sd gds cdhfjahn prfhõstaefs ahtrêhsdefs .

 

Prfhõstaefs eunhtatntavfs 

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Snjmaáh sfh gfs jîs utagazncfs pfr gfs rdspfhsnmgds cd fpdrneafhds eunhcf fpdrneafhds  eunhcf sd dheudhtrnh efh gn hdedsacnc cd lnedr prfydeeafhds pnrn rdngaznr pgnhds cd prfcueeaõh rnzfhnmgds. Dg jftavf ds sajpgd2 gns ftrns cfs praheapngds entdifrêns cd prfhõstaefs (eungatntavfs) rdquadrdh eadrtf efhfeajadhtf cdg jdrencf y/f njmadhtd dxtdrhf. Sng efhfeajadhtf rnrn vdz dstî n gn jnhf cd uh rdspfhsnmgd cd fpdrneafhds, quadh têpaenjdhtd tadhd pudstn su ntdheaõh sõgf dh gfs prfedsfs ahtdrhfs. Uah djmnrif, gn cdjnhcn prdvan ensa sadjprd tadhd ornhen caspfhamagacnc.

 

Pntrõh ngdntfraf 

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Ensa tfcfs gfs jfcdgfs cd prfhõstaefs ahtdhtnh enpturnr cd jnhdrn jntdjîtaen gfs pntrfhds sumynedhtds cd gn cdjnhcn pnsncn. Thf cd dggfs ds dg pntrõh ngdntfraf, ngdntfraf, qud pnrtd cdg supudstf cd qud gn cdjnhcn sadjprd pfsdd uh dgdjdhtf ngdntfraf. Dstf saihaoaen gf qud gn jnyfrên cd gn idhtd snmd cd ofrjn ahtuatavn2 ‗Dg egadhtd qud cdjnhcn madhds y sdrvaeafs cd uhn efjpnþên, hf gf lned cd ofrjn efjpgdtnjdhtd uhaofrjd y prdcdeamgd‚ prdcdeamgd‚

 

Pntrõh ngdntfraf

 

Pntrõh cd tdhcdhean  

Dg sdiuhcf pntrõh ds uh pntrõh cd tdhcdhean. tdhcdhean. Gns tdhcdheansypudcdh sdr erdeadhtds cderdeadhtds, tdhdr hnturngdzn gahdngf f hf gahdng.

 

Pntrõh cd tdhcdhean

 

Pntrõh cd tdhcdhean

 

Pntrõh Dstneafhng (eêegaef) 

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Dg tdredrf cd gfs pntrfhds praheapngds ds dg eêegaef, cdg eung uh ensf dspdeang –pdrf juy efjòh– ds dg pntrõh dstneafhng. Nuhqud sd gds cdhfjahn dstneafhngds (yn qud pnrn juelns efjpnþêns dg pntrõh jîs efjòh cd dstd tapf saiud gns dstneafhds cdg nþf), dstfs pntrfhds dh rdngacnc sfh pntrfhds eêegaefs, cdg nþf. yn qud pudcdh dstnr gaincfs f hf n gn dstneafhds Dh efhsdeudhean, gfs pntrfhds eêegaefs sfh nqudggfs qud saiudh eadrtf eaegf cd cdjnhcn, erdeadhtd f cderdeadhtd.

 

Pntrõh Dstneafhng (eêegaef)

 

Cdjnhcn efjpudstn efh pntrfhds cd dstneafhngacnc, tdhcdhean y ngdntfradcnc 

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Ua efgfeîrnjfs uh pntrõh ngdntfraf buhtf n uh pntrõh cd tdhcdhean y n uhf dstneafhng, fmtdhcrênjfs uh pntrõh cd cdjnhcn sajagnr ng pntrõh qud dhordhtnh juelns efjpnþêns pnrn sus prfcuetfs f sdrvaeafs. Pfr dbdjpgf, pntrõh ngdntfraf efhnguhn tdhcdhean cd uh aherdjdhtf gahdng sddstneafhng vdrên sajagnr qud sd agustrn dh gn oaiurn

 

Cdjnhcn efjpudstn efh pntrfhds cd dstneafhngacnc, tdhcdhean y ngdntfradcnc

 

JÁSFCFU CD P]FHÕUSAEFU CD _DHSNU Ngiuhfs cd gfs játfcfs cd prfhõstaefs2  Játfcf cd Aherdjdhtf Nmsfgutf   

Játfcf cd Aherdjdhtf Pfredhtung Játfcf cd Prfjdcafs Jõvagds Játfcf cd Prfjdcafs Jõvagds Pfhcdrncfs

 

Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf Nmsfgutf2 Dg játfcf cd aherdjdhtf nmsfgutf efhstatuyd uhf cd gfs játfcfs jîs sdheaggfs y prîetaefs n gn lfrn cd rdngaznr prfydeeafhds cd vdhtns dh uhn djprdsn, cncn su vdrsntagacnc cd eîgeugf, pdrjatd fmtdhdr rîpacnjdhtd uh prfhõstaef mnbf gn prdjasn cd qud gfs aherdjdhtfs nhungds dh gns vdhtns erdedh dh ouheaõh cd gfs prfjdcafs cd erdeajadhtf cd erdeajadhtf  cd uhn sdrad cd tadjpf.

 

Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf Nmsfgutf Prfedcajadhtf >. N pnrtar cd gns vdhtns rdngds cd gn djprdsn sd engeugnh gfs aherdjdhtfs nmsfgutfs nhungds gfs eungds sd engeugnh rdstnhcf gns vdhtns cd uh nþf cdtdrjahncf jdhfs gns vdhtns cdg nþf nhtdrafr. nhtdrafr. ∏ :   ∝    ∝ >

 

Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf Nmsfgutf Prfedcajadhtf =. Thn vdz qud sd fmtadhdh tfcfs gfs aherdjdhtfs nmsfgutfs sd prfedcd n prfjdcanr gfs aherdjdhtfs n trnvás cdg eîgeugf cd uhn jdcan nratjátaen sajpgd. 

 

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Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf Nmsfgutf Prfedcajadhtf 5. Pfr ògtajf sd sujn n gns vdhtns rdngds cdg ògtajf nþf caspfhamgd, dg prfjdcaf cd aherdjdhtf engeugncf dh dg prfedcajadhtf nhtdrafr, dstf hfs cnrî efjf rdsugtncf dg prfhõstaef cd vdhtns pnrn dg nþf saiuadhtd

 

 

Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf Nmsfgutf Prfedcajadhtf Dbdreaeaf2 N efhtahuneaõh sd prdsdhtnh gfs cntfs cd gns vdhtns rdngds cd bdnhs cd gn djprdsn Ahcustrans Yrnhgfy, U.N.

Nþf =005 ==000033 =004 ==0000?4? ==000099 ==00000

_dhtns (Thc) ?100 ??55033500 99440000 99??==55 9999??44

   

Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf Nmsfgutf Prfedcajadhtf N efhtahuneaõh sd prdsdhtnh gfs cntfs cd gns vdhtns rdngds cd bdnhs cd gn djprdsn Ahcustrans Yrnhgfy, U.N. Nþf =005 ==000033 =004 ==0000?4? ==000099 ==00000

_dhtns (Thc) ?100 ??55033500 99440000 99??==55 9999??44 9101

 

-9 -9 =>0 =>0 =59 =59 >?0 >?0 >=5 >=5 >>33== >33

Prfhfstaef =0>02 99?4 + >33 Prfhfstaef : 9101 uhacncds

 

Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf pfredhtung Juelns vdeds dg játfcf cd aherdjdhtf nmsfgutf hf tadhd gn enpneacnc cd pfcdr sajugnr gfs aherdjdhtfs pfredhtungds qud suordh gns vdhtns nþf trns nþf, pfr dstn rnzõh dxastd n caspfsaeaõh cd gfs pgnhaoaencfrds cd vdhtns, dg játfcf cd aherdjdhtf a herdjdhtf pfredhtung, dg eung tfjn dh efhsacdrneaõh gfs aherdjdhtfs pdrf dh vngfrds rdgntavfs

 

Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf pfredhtung Prfedcajadhtf >. N pnrtar cd gns vdhtns rdngds cd gn djprdsn sd engeugnh gfs aherdjdhtfs pfredhtungds nhungds gfs eungds sd engeugnh cd gn saiuadhtd jnhdrn2

 

 

Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf pfredhtung Prfedcajadhtf =. Thn vdz qud sd fmtadhdh tfcfs gfs aherdjdhtfs

pfredhtungds prfedcd prfjdcanr gfsjdcan aherdjdhtfs nsdtrnvás cdg neîgeugf cd uhn nratjátaen sajpgd2   ³    : ∏ %

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Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf pfredhtung Prfedcajadhtf 5. Pfr ògtajf sd sujn n gns vdhtns rdngds cdg ògtajf

nþf dg prfjdcaf aherdjdhtf dh dgcaspfhamgd, prfedcajadhtf nhtdrafr,cddstf hfs cnrîengeugncf efjf rdsugtncf dg prfhõstaef cd vdhtns pnrn dg nþf saiuadhtd.

 

 

Játfcf cd aherdjdhtf pfredhtung Prfedcajadhtf Dbdreaeaf =2 Pnrn oneagatnr gn efjpnrneaõh efh dg játfcf nhtdrafr sd

prdsdhtn dg jasjf ensf cd gfs cntfs cd gns vdhtns rdngds cd bdnhs cd gn djprdsn Ahcustrans Yrnhgfy U.N. Nþf =005 ==000033

_dhtns (Thc) ?100 ??55033500 99440000 99??==55 9999??44

5,04% 5,5034% 5,53% =,>,?3% >,?3% >,