Metodos de Pronostico Casuales

March 31, 2023 | Author: Anonymous | Category: N/A
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IË]AMAR BWE@]K]E]K_AR BEWRECGR.

K`h. G`ie`ugc Ta`mò`

 

5. Iamgcas mg Tghrgskò`. Cas iamgcas mg rghrgskò` sg g`berhe` mg prgmgbkr u`e verkedcg ba` desg g` atres verkedcgs ba`abkmes a supugstes. W` gfgipca mg epckbebkò` mg gstas sgrke, ce dösqugme mg oebtargs rgcebka`emas ec prabgsa mg prgmkbbkò` mg u` bkgrta `kvgc mg vg`tes (par gfgipca, prgbka, hestas mg pudckbkmem). Orgbug`tgig`tg, sg dusbe gstumker ce gxkstg`bke mg rgcebka`gs g`trg verkedcgs. ^ar gfgipca, iubles pgrsa`es pugmg` prghu`tersg sk ley echu`e rgcebkò` g`trg gc ba`suia mg gcgbtrkbkmem, ces lares mg tredefa, ce gokbkg`bke mg ces becmgres y gc tkgipa mg vkme mg cas g`hre`efgs mg ces iåquk`es mgc teccgr. Ce prkigre epraxkiebkò` sgrke rgprgsg`te pergs mg verkedcgs g` u` pce`a. Esé, adtg`mréeias u`e `udg mg pu`tas ce buec pamrée k`mkber`as vksuecig`tg ce gxkstg`bke a `a mg echö` tkpa mg rgcebkò` g`trg ces verkedcgs. Gs kiparte`tg ig`bka`er, qug mgsmg gc pu`ta mg vkste oariec gc e`åcksks mg rghrgskò` sg mgmkbe e gstkier ce gspgre`ze ba`mkbka`ec mg [ pere memes ces k`mgpg`mkg`tgs. Gsta gs baia verke gc praigmka mg [ e okfer vecargs mg ces k`mgpg`mkg`tgs. Ley g`ta`bgs u` adfgtkva okfema qug gs ce mgtgrik`ebkò` mg u`e ou`bkò` cceieme ou`bkò` mg rghrgskò`.

5.5 Tghrgskò` ck`gec skipcg y iöctkpcg Mg ebugrma e Ia`tgieyar (4>52), g` gstas iëtamas, ce verkedcg defa gstumka sg mg`aik`e verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg, y cas oebtargs ba`tracedcgs, verkedcgs k`mgpg`mkg`tgs a gxpckbetkves. Ce verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg sg esuig qug gs ecgetarke y sg dusbe prgmgbkr a gxpckber igmke`tg ces verkedcgs k`mgpg`mkg`tgs, ces buecgs `a sa` ecgetarkes sk`a ba`tracedcgs par gc k`vgstkhemar. W` gfgipca mg gsta sgrke, prkigra sedgr qug u`e verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg pugmg` sgr ces vg`tes mg u` pramubta y pere treter mg prgmgbkrces a gxpckberces sg pugmg` gstedcgbgr verkedcgs k`mgpg`mkg`tgs baia gc prgbka mgc pramubta y gc hesta g` pudckbkmem. Mg khuec oarie, gs kiparte`tg mgsteber qug gxkstg` mas ectgr`etkves g` rghrgskò` ck`gec pere prgmgbkr e ce verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg6 gc iamgca mg

 

rghrgskò` skipcg, qug k`bcuyg u`e sace verkedcg k`mgpg`mkg`tg: y gc iamgca mg rghrgskò` ck`gec iöctkpcg, qug k`bcuyg verkedcgs k`mgpg`mkg`tgs: taie`ma g` ba`skmgrebkò` gc pamgr mg gxpckbebkò` mg ces verkedcgs k`mgpg`mkg`tgs, sg apterå par u` iamgca skipcg a u`a iöctkpcg. ^ere Le`jg y Xkblgr` (4>5>), gc iamgca mg rghrgskò` ck`gec skipcg sg k`vgstkhe ce rgcebkò` g`trg u`e verkedcg k`mgpg`mkg`tg y u`e verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg. E ig`uma ce rgcebkò` g`trg mas verkedcgs pgriktg pra`astkber ba` gxebtktum ce verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg e pertkr mgc ba`abkikg`ta mg ce verkedcg k`mgpg`mkg`tg. ^ar gste rezò`, ce esabkebkò` ck`gec kipckbe u`e rgcebkò` g` cé`ge rgbte. Bcera, qug u`e vgz qug sg gstedcgbg u`e rgcebkò` ck`gec, gc ba`abkikg`ta mg ce verkedcg k`mgpg`mkg`tg sgrvkrå pere pra`astkber ce verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg. ^ere gstas eutargs, gc e`åcksks mg rghrgskò` iöctkpcg kipckbe gc usa mg iås mg u`e verkedcg k`mgpg`mkg`tg pere prgmgbkr u`e verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg. Ce ieyarée mg cas ba`bgptas prgsg`temas g` ce rghrgskò` ck`gec skipcg sg utkckze` g` ce rghrgskò` iöctkpcg. Rk` giderha, surhg` echu`as ba`bgptas `ugvas, ye qug sg use iås mg u`e verkedcg k`mgpg`mkg`tg pere prgmgbkr ce verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg. Rk` giderha, ley qug tg`gr g` bug`te qug eu`qug pugmg` gxkstkr gsbg`erkas baipcgteig`tg ck`gecgs, a ec ig`as ba` u`e gstedkckmem `atarke, iublas gsbg`erkas mg gcedarebkò` mg pra`òstkbas g` ce vkme rgec `a sa` te` skipcgs, ye qug ba` orgbug`bke sg `gbgskte iås mg u`e verkedcg k`mgpg`mkg`tg pere pra`astkber ba` gxebtktum u`e verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg. ^ar atra cema, g` ce rghrgskò` skipcg, ce verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg pugmg rgprgsg`tersg igmke`tg [, y ce verkedcg k`mgpg`mkg`tg igmke`tg \. G` gc e`åcksks mg rghrgskò` iöctkpcg, ces verkedcgs k`mgpg`mkg`tgs sg mg`ate` igmke`tg \ ba` sudé`mkbgs. Esé, ces verkedcgs mgpg`mkg`tgs sg skhug` rgprgsg`te`ma par [ y ces verkedcgs k`mgpg`mkg`tgs par \ 5  \4  \j.  W`e vgz qug sg le mgtgrik`ema gc ba`fu`ta k`kbkec mg verkedcgs k`mgpg`mkg`tgs, ce rgcebkò` g`trg [ y gstes \ sg gxprgse baia u` iamgca mg rghrgskò` iöctkpcg.

 

4. Epckbebkò` g` cas g`tar`as mg ^raygbtas K`mustrkecgs. Ce epckbebkò` mg cas iamgcas mg rghrgskò` g` cas g`tar`as k`mustrkecgs k`vacubre y rgcebka`e ce mgie`me mg pramubta ok`ec gxkstg`tg, a mgc baiparteikg`ta mg u` prabgsa a skstgie ba` atres

verkedcgs

gxtgr`es

a

k`tgr`es qug tkg`mg` e abeska`er cas beidkas. ^ere ce utkckzebkò` mg gstg iëtama mg pra`òstkba besuec gs `gbgserka epckber ce tëb`kbe mg ié`kias buemremas pere adtg`gr u` igfar efustg g`trg ces verkedcgs. Emgiås, gs kiparte`tg ig`bka`er qug ce epckbebkò` mg gstg iamgca g` ce pce`gebkò` e barta y e igmke`a pcezas mg ce pramubbkò` ehrgheme a pere u` k`vg`terka qug k`bcuye u` `öigra pgqugõa mg pramubtas, gs mg utkckmem bue`ma gxkstg` ougrtgs rgcebka`gs beusecgs.

4.5 Besa prebtkba mg u` gstumka mg k`vgstkhebkò` bue`tktetkva beusec. Ce oedrkbe mg Tameikg`tas RJO, mgsge gstkier igmke`tg rghrgskò` ck`gec skipcg ces vg`tes e `kvgc iu`mkec mg rameikg`ta mg ramkccas pere gc igs mg Fucka. Ce k`oariebkò` mgc baiparteikg`ta mg ces vg`tes mg tamas sus eciebg`gs mg bemg`e sg prgsg`te e ba`tk`uebkò` -

G`gra6 8>>>.

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Ogdrgra6 ;>>>.

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Ierza6 7>>>.

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Edrkc6 55>>>.

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Ieya6 5>>>>.

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Fu`ka6 52>>>.

Gc prkigr pesa pere g`ba`trer gc pra`òstkba mgc igs 8 ba`skstg g` g`ba`trer ce pg`mkg`tg, pere gcca sg gogbtöe` cas båcbucas qug sg prgsg`te` e ba`tk`uebkò`, tg`kg`ma g` bug`te qug –t’ lebg rgogrg`bke e ce verkedcg tkgipa y –x’ e ce verkedcg mgie`me.  mgie`me. 

 

Oariuces6

^ra`astkba mgc pgrkama –t’.  –t’.  K`tgrsgbbkò` mg ce cé`ge ba` gc gfg. ^g`mkg`tg (^asktkve a `ghetkve) ^grkama mg tkgipa Ma`mg6

^raigmka mg ce verkedcg mgpg`mkg`tg (_g`tes a Mgie`me). ^raigmka mg ce verkedcg k`mgpg`mkg`tg (]kgipa).



∕ 9 (8> 8>>> >> ∘ 5 + ;> ;>>> >> ∘ 4 + 7>>> ∘ 2 + 55>>> ∘ = + 5> 5>>> >>>> ∘∘== 9 + 5> 5>>> >>>> ∘∘77 + 52>>> ∘ ?)  

∕   454>>>  9 

∕   8>>> + ;>>> + 7>>> + 55>>> +5>>>> +52>>>  9



∕   77>>>  9



∕ 9  5  5++ 4 + 22++ = + 77++ ??  9

 

 



∕ 9  45  9

+ 44 +  22 + = +  + 77 + ?  ∕ 9  5 +  9 

∕ 9 ;5  9 

∕ 9 5  5++ 4+ 4 + 2 + ==++ 7 + ?  9 

∕ 9 ==5  9

 (?454>>> 454>>>) ∔  77>>> 77>>> ∘ 45    (? ? ?∘∘ ;5 ;5∔∔ == ==5 5   555=.4>>> + 52>>>     8>>> + ;>>> + 7>>> + 55>>> ?   ;;??.?8    5 + 4 + 22++ ?= + 77++ ? + 88   

  2.7

 

  ;5 ;5??. ??.?8∔ ?8 ∔ 555=.4< 555=.452). Ie`uec mg ^ra`òstkbas pere ce taie mg mgbkska`gs. Gmktarkec Mkhktec, tgb`acòhkba mg Ia`tgrgy. Iëxkba. Le`jg, F. y Xkblgr`, M. (4>5>) ^ra`òstkbas g` cas `ghabkas. Gmktarkec ^gersa` Gmubebkò`.

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