Método de Montecarlo

 

JÁUNEN EK JNFUK CBYHN

AFUKDYBFUKS? - CCNHR[K R[ASWK ONSK - DBJKYN HB_N BEBHÊ UKYKSB - JBJBFA CBHCAFB QNPBFB MBYKF

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F[ÒK_ EKH WYBEN WNFCK JBYPAF R[ASWK IKYEABHKS YNDDKY MKPAF

 

2. AFUYNE[CCAÓF

Kh játnen ek Jnftk Cbrhn ks ufb lkrrbjakftb ek afvkstadbcaóf y phbfkbjakftn= iâsacbjkftk ks ufb tácfacb ek jukstrkn brta`acabh, kjphkbeb pbrb npkrbr fujáracbjkftk sastkjbs cnjphkons quk tkfdbf cnjpnfkftks bhkbtnrans. Kstb jktnenhndêb prnvkk cnjn rksuhtben, afcnrpnrbeb b hns jnekhns `afbfcakrns, bprnxajbcanfks pbrb hbs eastraiucanfks ek prnibiahaebeks ek hns pbrâjktrns quk kstâf sakfen kstueabens.

 

9.JÁUNEN EK JNFUKCBYHN Ibon kh fnjirkJnftk ek ‘Játnen Cbrhn‚ n ‘Sajuhbcaóf Cbrhn‚ekskJnftk bdrupbf ufb skrak ek prnckeajakftns quk bfbhazbf eastraiucanfks ek vbrabihks bhkbtnrabs usbfen sajuhbcaóf ek fÿjkrns bhkbtnrans. Kh Játnen ek Jnftk Cbrhn eb snhucaóf b ufb drbf vbrakebe ek prnihkjbs jbtkjâtacns lbcakfen kxpkrajkftns cnf jukstrkns kstbeêstacns kf ufb cnjputbenrb. Kh játnen ks b cubhquakr tapn ek prnihkjb, yb skbbphacbihk kstncâstacn n ektkrjafêstacn.

 

9.2 Ek`afacaóf

Ks ufb tácfacb jbtkjâtacb cnjputbrazbeb quk pkrjatk tkfkr kf cukftb kh raksdn kf bfâhasas cubftatbtavns y tnjbs ek ekcasanfks.

Kstb tácfacb ks utahazbeb  pnr prn`ksanfbhks ek cbjpns tbf easpbrks cnjn hns ek `afbfzbs, dkstaóf ek  prnykctns, kfkrdêb, jbfu`bcturbcaóf, afdkfakrêb, afvkstadbcaóf y eksbrrnhhn, skdurns,  pktróhkn y dbs, trbfspnrtk y jkean bjiakftk.

 

9.9 Cnfckptns 

Ks uf játnen fn ektkrjafastb n kstbeêstacn fujáracn, usben pbrb bprnxajbr kxprksanfks jbtkjâtacbs cnjphkobs y cnstnsbs ek kvbhubr cnf kxbctatue.

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Ks ufb tácfacb quk pkrjatk hhkvbr b cbin hb vbhnrbcaóf ek hns  prnykctns ek afvkrsaóf cnfsaekrbfen quk ufb, n vbrabs, ek hbs vbrabihks quk sk utahazbf pbrb hb ektkrjafbcaóf ek hns `huons fktns ek cbob fn snf vbrabihks cakrtbs, safn quk  pukekf tnjbr vbrans vbhnrks.

 

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Ks ufb tácfacb quk cnjiafb cnfckptns kstbeêstacns (jukstrkn bhkbtnran) cnf hb cbpbcaebe quk takfkf hns nrekfbenrks pbrb dkfkrbr fÿjkrns pskuenbhkbtnrans y butnjbtazbr câhcuhns.

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Ks uf játnen fujáracn quk pkrjatk rksnhvkr prnihkjbs `êsacns y jbtkjâtacns jkeabftk hb sajuhbcaóf ek vbrabihks bhkbtnrabs.

Skdÿf Fbyhnr, ks ufb tácfacb ek sajuhbcaóf pbrb prnihkjbs quk takfkf ufb ibsk kstncâstacb n prnibiahêstacb.

 

9.3 Lastnrab Kh játnen sk hhbjó bsê kf rk`krkfcab bh Cbsafn ek Jnftk Cbrhn (Wrafcapben ek Jófbcn) pnr skr «hb cbpatbh ekh oukdn ek bzbr½, bh skr hb ruhktb uf dkfkrbenr sajphk ek fÿjkrns bhkbtnrans. Kh fnjirk y kh eksbrrnhhn sastkjâtacn ek hns játnens ek Jnftk Cbrhn ebtbf bprnxajbebjkftk ek 2155 y sk jkonrbrnf kfnrjkjkftk cnf kh eksbrrnhhn ek hb cnjputbenrb. Hb afvkfcaóf ekh játnen ek Jnftk Cbrhn sk bsadfb b Stbfashbw [hbj y b Onlf vnf Fkujbff. [hbj lb kxphacben cójn sk hk ncurraó hb aekb jakftrbs oudbib uf snhatbran eurbftk ufb kf`krjkebe kf 2150.

 

B jkeabens ek hns bòns 57 ens lkclns skftbrnf hbs ibsks pbrb hb râpaeb kvnhucaóf ekh cbjpn ekekhb sajuhbcaóf? Hb cnfstruccaóf hns prajkrns cnjputbenrks ek prnpósatn dkfkrbh cnjn kh KFABC. Kh trbibon ek Stbfashbw [hbj, [hbj, Onlf 

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Pnf usbr Fkujbff y ntrns cakftê`acns  pbrb kh Játnen ek Jnftk Cbrhn kf cnjputbenrks jnekrfns y snhucanfbr prnihkjbs ek ea`usaóf ek fkutrnfks kf kh easkòn y eksbrrnhhn ek ek laeródkfn. [hbj y Pnfhb injib Fkujbff yb kstuvakrnf  prkskftks kf kh prnykctn prnykctn Jbflbttbf.

 

Kh játnen ek Jnftk Cbrhn prnpnrcanfb snhucanfks bprnxajbebs b ufb drbf vbrakebe ek prnihkjbs jbtkjâtacns  pnsaiahatbfen hb rkbhazbcaóf ek kxpkrajkftns cnf jukstrkns ek fÿjkrns pskuenbhkbtnrans kf ufb cnjputbenrb. Kh játnen ks nbphacbihk b cubhquakr tapn ek prnihkjb, yb skb kstncâstacn ektkrjafastb. Kf hb bctubhaebe ks pbrtk `ufebjkftbh ek hns bhdnratjns ek Ybytrbcafd pbrb hb dkfkrbcaóf ek ajâdkfks 3E.

 

9.5 Bphacbcanf Bphacbcanfks ks Kh Játnen ek Jnftk Cbrhn ks bphacben cnf `rkcukfcab kf hbs saduakftks jbtkrabs? Easkòn ek rkbctnrks fuchkbrks. Crnjn eafâjacb cuâftacb. Ybeantkrbpab cnftrb kh câfckr. Ekfsaebe y `huon ek trâ`acn. Kvnhucaóf kstkhbr. Kcnfnjktrêb. Wrnfóstacn ekh êfeack ek hb inhsb. @êsacb ek jbtkrabhks. Kcnhndêb. Craptndrb`êb. Pbhnrbcaóf ek cbrtkrb ek vbhnrks. Wrndrbjbs ek nrekfbenr. Játnens cubftatbtavns ek nrdbfazbcaóf afeustrabh .

 

 

9.; Pkftbobs Ks uf játnen earkctn y `hkxaihk. Kxastk uf bjphan bibfacn ek prndrbjbs y hkfduboks ekstafbens b sajuhbr. Cubfen kh jnekhn jbtkjâtacn ks ekjbsaben cnjphacben hb sajuhbcaóf pkrjatk nitkfkr ufb bprnxajbcaóf. Hb sajuhbcaóf fns pkrjatk `nrjuhbr cnfeacanfks kxtrkjbs cnf raksdns fuhns. Hb sajuhbcaóf fn aftkr`akrk cnf kh jufen rkbh. Wkrjatk kxpkrajkftbr. Wkrjatk kstueabr hb aftkrbccaóf kftrk hbs ea`krkftks vbrabihks ekh prnihkjb. Jkeabftk hb sajuhbcaóf pnekjns ‘af`huar kf kh takjpn‚ ek hns prncksns. Hb sajuhbcaóf pkrjatk rksnhvkr prnihkjbs quk fn takfkf snhucaóf bfbhêtacb.

 

 

9.0 Eksvkftbobs [fb iukfb sajuhbcaóf pukek rksuhtbr juy cnjphacbeb, drbf fujkrn ek vbrabihks.

Hb sajuhbcaóf fn óptajbs dhnibhks.

dkfkrb

snhucanfks

 Fn prnpnrcanfb hb ekcasaóf b tnjbr, safn quk rksukhvk kh prnihkjb jkeabftk bprnxajbcaóf pbrb ufbs cnfeacanfks afacabhks.

Cbeb bzbr. sajuhbcaóf ks ÿfacb, aftkrvakfk kh

 

9.4 Játnen ek Jnftk Cbrhn B cnftafubcaóf cnftafubcaóf sk ekscraik kh játnen Jnftk Cbrhn?

2. Aekfta`acbr kh kxpkrajkftn n sastkjb b sajuhbr.

9. Aekfta`acbr kh kspbcan jukstrbh y ek`afar hb  vbrabihk bhkbtnrab.

5. Cnfstruar hb `ufcaóf bcujuhbeb ek prnibiahaebe.

3. Ek`afar hb `ufcaóf ek prnibiahaebe.

;. Cbhcuhbr n cnfstruar hb tbihb ek hb trbfs`nrjbcaóf afvkrsb ek hb `ufcaóf ek bcujuhbeb prnibiahaebe.

0. Dkfkrbr uf fÿjkrn bhkbtnran y uiacbrhn kf hb tbihb ek trbfs`nrjbeb afvkrsb pbrb sajuhbr uf vbhnr kspkcê`acn ek hb  vbrabihk bhkbtnrab. bhkbtnrab.

 

9.< Eastraiucaóf ek Wrnibiahaebeks Hbs eastraiucanfks ek prnibiahaebe jâs cnjufks snf?  Fnrjbh    Hndfnrjbh   [fa`nrj   WKYU    Eascrktk  Eascr ktk 

 

CBSN WYÂCUACN

 

Sk quakrk bfbhazbr hb rkftbiahaebe ek ufb afvkrsaóf b cubtrn bòns ek cakrtn prneuctn. Sk kstajb hb ekjbfeb jasjn kstâ ufa`nrjkjkftk eastraiuaeb cnfquk vbhnrks kftrk < ekh y 23 ufaebeks bfubhks cnf uf prkcan ek $3;,777 cbeb ufb. Hns cnstns `aons bfubhks snf ek $2;,777 y hns vbrabihks ekh 4;% ek hbs vkftbs. Hb ekprkcabcaóf bfubh ekh kquapn fkcksbran ks cbpatbh ek $27,777 sk kstajb ufb afvkrsaóf ek $2;7,777. Kh cnstn ek ks ekh y27% y hns ajpukstns sk cbhcuhbf kf ibsk b ufb tbsb ekh 35%. B `af ek tkfkr uf kstajben rkbhastb, sk sudakrk eksbrrnhhbr 277 sajuhbcanfks cnjpnrtbjakftn hb afvkrsaóf y cbhcuhbr kh  prnjkean ekh ekh vbhnr prkskftk ek hbekjasjb bftks ek tnjbr ufb ekcasaóf.

 

CNFCH[SANFKS 2. Kh játnen játnen ek Jnftk Jnftkcbr cbrhn hn `uk crkbe crkbenn pnr afvks afvkstadb tadben enrks rks kstbenufaekfsks pbrb rksnhvkr prnihkjbs `êsacns y quêjacns kf hb rkbhazbcaóf ek hb injib btójacb pbrb hb cubh sk kjphkó eurbftk hb Skdufeb Dukrrb Jufeabh. 9. Kh jnekhn jnek hn ek Jnftk Jn ftk Cbr Cbrhn hn `uk kjp kjphkbe hkben pbrb hb rksuhtbens. pbrb rksnhuca rksn hucaóf óf ek jÿhtaphks prnihkjbs jbtkjâtacns c nf nkxatnsns cnf 3. Kstk játn játnen en ks bphacb bphacbihk ihk pbrb pbrb cubhqu cubhquakr akr tapn tapn ek prnih prnihkjb kjb yb skb ektkrjafêstacn n kstncâstacn. 5. Sk kjphkb kjphkb kf prni prnihkjb hkjbss cnjphkon cnjphkonss quk snhbjk snhbjkftk ftk sk puke pukekf kf rksnhvkr pnr prndrbjbs ek cnjputbenrb, bsê cnjn  prnihkjbs sajphks quk sk rksnhvkrâf b jbfn saf tbftb ea`acuhtbe.

 

YKCNJKFEBCANFKS  Fukstrbs rkcnjkfebcanfks skrabf? 2. Cnfsae Cnfsaekrb krbrr kh usn ekh ekh Játne Játnenn ek Jnftk Jnftk Cbrh Cbrhnn sakjpr sakjprkk quk fn sk cukftk cnf af`nrjbcaóf prkcasb ek hbs vbrabihks ek ufb kcubcaóf pbrb nitkfkr ufb jkonr bprkcabcaóf ek hns pnsaihks rksuhtbens. 9. Ksc Kscndk ndkrr kh sn`tw sn`twbrk brk quk quk sk utaha utahazbr zbrbb pbrb pbrb rkbhazb rkbhazbrr hb sajuhbcaóf cnfsaekrbfen hb kcubcaóf b utahazbr, kh fujkrn sajuhbcanfks quk sk ekskbf y kh takjpn cnf kh quk ek sk easpnfk. 3. Ksc Kscndk ndkrr kh fujkr fujkrnn ek sajuh sajuhbcan bcanfks fks ek ek bcukre bcukrenn b hns ebtns ebtns ek kftrbeb, jakftrbs jbs vbrabihks tkfdb hb kcubcaóf y jakftrbs jbs easpkrsbs kstáf hbs jasjbs, jbs sajuhbcanfks skrâf fkcksbrabs. 5. Fn biusb biusbrr ekh usn usn ek Jnft Jnftkk Cbrhn. Cbrhn. Ekik Ekik tkfkr tkfkrsk sk sakjp sakjprk rk kf cukftb quk kstb ks ufb lkrrbjakftb prnibiahêstacb y hns bfâhasas quk sk lbdbf cnf khhb ekikf rk`hkobr quk sk trbtb ek ufb prnibiahaebe.

 

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