Measurement of National Power : Definitions, Functions, Measurement

Measurement of National Power: Definitions, Functions, Measurement

(Paperback)

Email:[email protected] •

Paperback: 120 pages

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Publisher: LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing (November 17, 2010)

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Language: English

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ISBN-10: 3843371911

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ISBN-13: 978-3843371919

For my mother and father, who would have liked to have seen this day so much, and for my wife. I also dedicate this book to: my Dear Professor, Dr. Mohammad Reza Hafeznia

Contents: List of Tables………………………………………………………………………………..

IV

List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………….

V

List of Maps………………………………………………………………………………….

V

Preface………………………………………………………………………………………..

VI

Chapter One U

National Power, Definitions, Notions, Functions……………………………………………

1

Chapter Two U

A Historical Approach at power-creating factors……………………………………………

16

Chapter Three U

Sources and Factors of national power………………………………………………………

27

Chapter Four U

Approaches to Measuring of national power……………………………………………….

48

Chapter Five U

Research Methodology and Stages of Model Presentation………………………………….

74

Chapter Six U

Measuring National Power of countries…………………………………………………….

81

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………..

101

Refrences……………………………………………………………………………………

102

V

Illustrations

Tables: Table 1. Capability of the players……………………………………………………

14

Table2: Different approaches toward hegemony…………………………………….

17

Table 3: Attempts for creating military Hegemony………………………………….

18

Table 4: The quality factors and variables of national power……………………….

41

Table 5: conceptual and operational variables of national power……………………

45

Table6 : Single Variable Approaches to Evaluating National Power………………..

55

Table 7:Ranking state power…………………………………………………………

60

Table 8: Number and Type of Variables Used in Conceptual Integrated Models……

65

Table 9 : Simple Lineal Model to Measuring National Power………………………

80

Table 10: variables of Scientific and Technological factor…………………………

82

Table 11:Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor……………….

83

Table 12: variables of Economical factor…………………………………………..

84

Table 13 :Top ten powers in the Economical factor…………………………………

84

Table 14: variables of Social factor………………………………………………..

85

Table 15:Top ten powers in the Social factor……………………………………….

86

Table 16: variables of Territorial factor……………………………………………

87

Table 17:Top ten powers in the Territorial factor…………………………………..

87

Table 18: variables of Cultural factor……………………………………………...

88

Table 19:Top ten powers in the Cultural factor……………………………………..

89

Table 20: variables of the Political factor………………………………………….

90

Table 21:Top ten powers in the Political factor……………………………………..

90

Table 22: variables of the Trans-National factor…………………………………..

92

Table 23:Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor……………………………..

92

Table 24: variables of the Astro-space factor……………………………………..

93

Table 25:Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor………………………………...

94

Table 26: variables of the Military factor…………………………………………

95

Table 27:Top ten powers in the Military factor……………………………………

95

V

Figures: Figure 1: Evaluation of input and output of power ………………………………..

8

Figure 2. The relationship between national power, interests, and strategy……….

11

Figure 3: The relationship between Geopolitical weight, National power, and Domain…………………………………………………………………………….

12

Figure 4. Change in the Esteem of the players…………………………………….

20

Figure 5: Leading Sectors, Underlying Hegemonic Control in History……………

26

Figure 6: Repetition of the national power variables in 28 variant theories……….

40

Figure 7 : Model with nine factors of national power………………………………

45

Figure 8: The Linear relationship between factors of power……………………….

48

Figure 9: A Revised View of National Power………………………………………

64

Figure 10 : Model with nine factors of national power……………………………..

69

Figure 11 : Top ten powers in the all factors (National Power)……………………..

97

Figure 12 :Global Geopolitical structure…………………………………………….

99

Maps : Map 1 : Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor………………..

83

Map 2: Top ten powers in the Economical factor…………………………………...

85

Map 3: Top ten powers in the Social factor………………………………………...

86

Map 4: Top ten powers in the Territorial factor……………………………………

88

Map 5: Top ten powers in the Cultural factor……………………………………….

89

Map 6: Top ten powers in the the Political factor………………………………….

91

Map 7: Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor………………………………..

93

Map 8: Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor…………………………………..

94

Map 9: Top ten powers in the Military factor……………………………………….

96

Map 10:The first ten global power………………………………………………….

98

Preface: Evaluating and measuring countries' national power to determine the country's status in the Global Geo-political System and comparing countries' powers has always been one of the main concerns of political geographers, scientists of political science and international relations. From this aspect, many specialists attempted many efforts to evaluate national power by means of creating methods and single variable and multi-variable models, whereas all of them have ranked many countries from a multi-variable or limited aspect but it has never reflected the countries extensive and complete power. In this research, based on the assessment of previous models for the evaluation of national power, a new model is presented to measure national power; it is much better than previous models based on working method, number and integration of indexes and variables affecting national power. Paying attention to all the aspects of national power (in the form of the nine factors include: Economical, Political, Military, Transnational, Astro-space ,Territorial, Social, Scientific and technological and Cultural), paying attention to the usage of various variants, variety in the form of 87 factors, stressing the usage of new and strategically compatible variants to the current time are some of the benefits of this model. Also using the Delphi method and referring to the opinions of experts about determining the role and importance of variables affecting national power, the option of drawing out the global power structure… are some the other advantages that this model has compared to previous ones. This book has seven chapter that includes: Chapter One:

National Power, Definitions, Notions, Functions

Chapter Two:

A Historical Approach at power-creating factors

Chapter Three,

Sources and Factors of national power

Chapter Four:

Approaches to Measuring of national power

Chapter Five:

Research Methodology and Stages of Model Presentation

Chapter Six:

Measuring National Power of countries

Chapter One: National Power: Definitions, Notions, Functions

The concept of “power” is the center of all the analyses in the political world and many scholars such as Morgentau consider power the foundation of international policies and are of the conviction that all policies are, in fact, attempts to gain power. 1 Power and its 0F

presence in the political world is so important that some people like Wolves compare it to the “role of money” in economic relations and believe that power does the same thing in the international world that money does in the international economy. 2 Others regard power as a 1F

sun in the solar system and state that all manifestations and aspects of foreign policy and international relations between the countries turn around power. This is because countries are always trying to gain power and power is vital for their survival. In other words, all countries fight for gaining power, maintaining power, or displaying power. 3 On this basis, 2F

one important issue in international relations is the power of political units particularly that 1-Divid. Jablonsky, National Power, parameters,27 ( spring 1997)p. 34 2-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan publication, 2003,p.169 3 -Abdolrahman Alam. Principles of political science, Tehran, Nee publication, 1999 .p. 188

of countries which is referred to as national power. In fact, like the notion of power, different viewpoints exist about definitions, examples, and component of national power. Definition and concept of national power: National power, as a geopolitical concept, reflects the mass characteristics of a nation which 1

is the sum of their capabilities and potentials. When we look at power in the framework of 3F

a society or a nation, general power is considered by the sum of the society’s capabilities. Therefore, all the people who have formed a nation and have gained political organization in the form of a country have a power that is gained from the sum of their capabilities and is thus considered their national power. This power is the mathematical sum of the positive and negative elements of power and foundations of that country that is active and is comprehended when compared with other nations’ and countries. There are different definitions of national power but four have been presented here:  “National power consists of the materialistic and spiritual capabilities that exist in one geographical and political unit called a country or a government”.

2 4F

 In his book titled “Comprehensive national power”, Shuofeng Huang, the well-known Chinese scholar, states that national power consists of perfect power and international influence of a nation both in materialistic aspects and spiritual aspects that a nation uses in order to survive and develop. 3 5F



National power means: “capability, potential, and capacity of a nation and a country for using its material and spiritual resources in order to impose national determination and gain national interests and goals”.



4 6F

National power can be defined simply as a country’s capacity to pursue strategic goals through purposeful action. This view of national power suggests two distinct but related dimensions of capacity: an external dimension, which consists of a nation’s capacity to affect the global environment through its economic, political, and

1-Mohammad Reza. Hafeznia,. et al, “analysis of geographical basics of national power of Islamic Republic of Iran” Journal of geographical science , Tarbiat Moalem University Press, 2003. p. 51. 2-Ali asgar. kazemi, Role of power in society and international relations,Tehran, Goms publication,1994,p.16 3-Huang Shuofeng, Comprehensive National Power Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Press, 1992, p. 102 4-Hafeznia,. et al (2003), op. cit., p.170

military potential, and an internal dimension, which consists of a nation’s capacity to transform the resources of its society into “actionable knowledge” that produces the best civilian and military technologies possible. Any effort at creating a useful national power profile must incorporate variables that capture these two dimensions. 1 7F

Dimensions and levels of national power: National power has two aspects: aspect of influence and aspect of force. Aspect of influence is more subjective (although it has objective nature as well) and countries and governments try to apply their power by imposing their influence on others and by fulfilling their determination. Aspect of force is more objective and depends on military power and punishment tools which are used by governments in the next steps and when the aspect of influence does not prove effective.

2 8F

National power of countries has different levels and degrees. Based on the space and the effectiveness power of the phenomena and the processes outside a country, levels of power can be divided as follows: 1- Extra-global power is a power that has an influence beyond the globe and the space between the planets. 1. National power with global effect is a power that can affect global processes whether they have one aspect or multiple aspects, such as superpower like the US or former Soviet Union. 2. National power with regional effect is a power that can be manifested in a geopolitical region, such as India in South Asia. 3. National power with local effect is a power that can only affect its neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia in Arabic peninsula . 4. National power with domestic effect is a power that is manifested inside the borders of a country such as Nepal that does not have any hegemony beyond its borders.

1-Ashley J. Tellis ,et al. Measuring National Power in the Postindustrial Age, Rand Crop.2000.p. 45 2-Jalil. roshandel, national security and international system ,Tehran, Samt Press, 1995,p.23

5.

Weakened national power that does not have total power even within its borders such as Somalia and Afghanistan.

1 9F

Historically, national power is linked with military capacity and capabilities, because wars have always had significant effects on international relations and winning or losing a war has been a factor for evaluating the power of countries. However, we cannot just rely on a single factor in order to determine the national power of a country. For instance, the huge expansion of Brazil, high population of Pakistan, industrial production of Belgium, and etc. are not considered the basis of evaluating national power. The best evidence is that none of the aforementioned counties is a first-class power. 2 In addition, national power has two 10F

aspects; one is objective and active and the other one is subjective and potential. Governments try to turn their potential capacities into active ones.

Functions of national power: On the whole, power has different functions the main axis of which is the provision of the conditions for fulfilling the goals and interests of individuals and groups. Power is the factor of life and survival, and it is therefore favored by individuals, groups, and governments. Any creature devoid of power is doomed to die and thus the innate need for continuance of life forces human being to gain power. It can be said that humanity, intentionally or unintentionally, directly or indirectly, is busy gaining power and maintaining it. This reality expresses the natural and innate tendency of people. On this basis, national power has different functions and applications. Some of the most important functional capabilities of national power from the viewpoint of scholars include: •

The most important function of national power of countries is satisfying national interests, and maintaining and expanding them. 3 1F

• Using materialistic and spiritual resources of the country with the aim of imposing national determination and gaining the goals and national interests. 4 12F

• Guaranteeing satisfaction of the needs and wishes of a nation or a country 1-Mohammad Reza . Hafeznia. Principles and concepts of geopolitics , Papoly publication, 2006,p. 230 2-Jablonsky. op. cit., p.35 3-roshandel. op. cit ,p.86 4-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 56

• Factor of survival and development of a nation and country. 1 13F

• Following functional goals by intentional measures through affecting international environment (in the international aspect) and turning the resources of the society into “applicable science” that produces the best military and non-military technology (in the domestic aspect).

2 14F

As it was mentioned before, the most significant application of national power is satisfying and guaranteeing national goals and interests of the countries. National aims and interests of countries are different but the majority of which include: 1. Satisfying national security and reducing and controlling the threats 2. Increasing national power as a goal 3. Development and national welfare 4. Protecting the existence of a nation and a country 5. National international rights or the rights that a nation or a country has beyond its borders 6. National and international prestige of a country 7. National independence and preventing its being ruled by other countries 8. International peace and stability with the motivation of satisfying national interests and needs 9. Maintaining the borders of the countries and preventing its division 10. Expanding the influence and affecting different economic, cultural, ideological, political aspects 11. Satisfying national needs within the borders through foreign facilities 12. Removing the obstacles of free imposing of national determination within the borders and outside the borders 13. Seeking power and hegemony which is usually the wish of some countries 14. Expanding the lands 15. Reducing the influence of other governments in the internal affairs 16. Supporting foreign policy of a country

1-Shuofeng. op. cit , p.102 2-Tellis . et al. op. cit , p.56

17. Maintaining the values of life, and national identity and pride 18. Protecting national power and preventing national embarrassment Although the aforementioned list is among the national goals and interests of countries, achieving them or their relevance depends of the county’s conditions, national power, and the strategies pursued by political leaders. 1 15F

The factor behind national power is not just the tools of achieving national interests and goals, although such a role is expected. On the other hand, national power can be manifested as a national goal as well. Knowing that national power is the most important and fundamental way of maintaining their existence and fulfilling their interests and goals, all countries attempt to strengthen this tool and avoid its weakening. Strengthening national power increases the chances of achieving national goals and weakening it will result in failure in achieving absolute rights. In addition, countries use power to achieve their national interests and security and try to use it to protect and develop their national interests. In addition to these domestic and foreign goals, governments sometimes use their power to maintain their power and lengthen their rule. They usually use power against their own people in order to guarantee their rule and turn their friendly relation with their nation into one filled with enmity. They use levers of power such as law, army, police, justice system, and others to hurt their own people to give it an unreasonable legitimacy. On the whole, national power is used by the governments in two domains: 1. Domestic domain 2. Foreign domain In the domestic domain, power is used to legislate, regulate social affairs, implement the law and social justice, and satisfy public security through related organized organizations such as legislative, judicial, security, military, advertisement organizations and etc. in the foreign domain, national power is used to protect national interests, to fulfill the national needs through foreign approaches, satisfy national security, reduce foreign threats, enhance national prestige, and etc.

2 16F

1-Mohammad Reza . Hafeznia. The Principles of SocioPolitical studies ,Qom press , 2000.p. 248 2-Hafeznia. (2003) , op. cit, P. 25

In fact nations have different wishes, hopes, and interests and fulfilling such wishes depends on the level and nature of national power particularly in comparison with other countries. If a country enjoys a high level of national power, it can fulfill its wishes without facing any obstacles. Some countries not only have access to such a power in the globe and on earth, but also beyond the borders of earth. Some countries are also so weak that they cannot fulfill their basic needs. Therefore, it can be said that there is a direct relationship between the national power of a country and its role in the international relations. In other words, the type of foreign policy of a country, which guarantees its role in the international relations, is affected by the condition of national power of that country. 1 Undoubtedly, such 17F

superpowers as Russia and the US have a different role in comparison to a mini-power like Bahrain. In the economic domain, the role of such superpowers as the US and Japan is not comparable with Germany.

2 18F

In regard to the domestic and foreign uses of the national power of a country, different scholars have presented different theories and models. One of these models, which expresses national power in different domestic and particularly foreign domains, has been proposed by George Modelski and it is known as “input-output” model. Modelski model is mainly based on a series of hypothesis in political philosophy and this has been totally linked to the domain of political power. The hypotheses of this model include: 1. In foreign policy, the base in maintaining, gaining, and displaying power. 2. There are different kinds of power: constructive, educational, and destructive power. 3. The necessity of prioritizing resources to goals.

1-Mohamad Kazem. Sajad pour, foreign policy of iran, Institute for Political and International Studies, 2002,p.46 2-Seifzadeh. (2003), op. cit,p. 352

Using theory of systems, Modelski compares and evaluates the foreign policy behavior and respectively just considers on two phases of input and output of power. Figure 1: Evaluation of input and output of power

Source:Gorge modelski, quoted by Hossein, Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan publication, 2003:p.352

As it can be seen in figure 1, the main variables of the model are input-output of power and the policy making phase is used as a transferring fuse. The contents of modelski model show that he used the mental framework governing the calculation of profits and expenses in order to explain the political system as a power-producing system. In this system, the policy maker must pay attention to the fact that the outcomes of power must be increasingly

more than the inputs of power. The environment for making policies must be in a way that the policy maker decided on the basis of the profits that can be gained from both domestic and foreign operation environment. Input of power generates the profits for middle power that is the decision making environment. Eventually, output of power must be much more in comparison to input of power. Modelski’s model conclusion is that governments’ conservatism, balance, and ambitious attitude depends on the output of power that is being generated. Comparing this change and exchange in the form of input and output of power objectively shows the way profits are enhanced in the framework of national strategy. This issue forces foreign policy makers to operate and measure the goals and resources of foreign policy and thus is this project is implemented, then the interference of mentalities and related objective issues in regard to foreign policy will be to a great extent prevented.

1 19F

The relationship between power, interests and national strategy: National power has in nature a tendency toward expansion and development and all nations seek to increase their national power as well. No country can be found that is not trying to increase the level of its natural power and enhance its position in the international system. Just like all humans, countries have a competition for gaining more power and attempt to gain new capabilities, opportunities, and capacities. In fact, national power is active in nature. While it can be manifested as a national goal, it can also be used as a tool by the governments and political leaders to gain, maintain and develop national goals.

2 20F

National goals and interests are active as well and are always changing. National power and security are considered among national goals which the governments try to secure by using the lever of national power. In fact, national power is a two-dimensional phenomenon, namely it is both the goal and the tool. It is a tool used by governments and political leaders to gain national goals and security. The objective form and the main manifestation of application of national power is in national strategy adopted by political leaders of a country. It is in the national strategy that the most efficient pattern of national power is 1-Gorge. modelski, quoted by Hossein, Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan publication, 2003:p.353 2-Hafeznia. (2003) ,op. cit, P. 29

determined by political leaders. On the other hand, national power depends on it. Therefore, the necessity of existence of a country and a nation as well as its success require that nations and governments always try to maintain and develop their national power as national power is the factor of existence and success of a nation. Among the main motivations for gaining national power is shortage of resources because “shortage of enough available resources and the contradictory elements that exist for achieving the goals results in the activation of the motivation for increasing power in order to accomplish the goals.

1 21F

On the whole, there is a three-way relationship between national power ,national interests, and national strategy. The quality of level of satisfying national interests depends on the level and quality of national power of that country. In order to establish a relationship between these two variables “strategy” plays an important role. In other words, strategy is manifested between two phenomena and issues; one is power and its tools and the second one is the goal and objective. Strategy is the link between these two phenomena. In fact, strategy is the art and nature of application of power in order to achieve the goals. 2 In order 2F

to define national strategy, it has been said that: strategy is the science of politics and governing countries and national strategy is the science and knowledge of organized development of economic, political, cultural, religious, ethical, and military capacities of a nation and its application for achieving the national goals 3. In addition, another definition 23F

of national goal says: “strategy consists of the art of application of all elements of power of a nation or a group of nations in order to achieve their goals during war and peace.

4 24F

In a country, strategy is the art of the political leaders of a country to look at the capabilities, abilities, and level of national power, on one hand, and look at the national interests and goals on the other hand. They then need to adopt the policies to achieve national goals and interests by using their level of national power. Therefore, the three elements of national power, national goals and

interests, and strategy, are all linked

together and interact with one another. The following picture expresses this relationship. 1-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Theory-Building in International Relations Fundamentals and Paradigms, Tehran, Samt publication p. 144 2-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 302 3-Robert. Walters , Nuclear Weapon,Tehran,trans: fatahi mohamad reza, Tehran, policy of iran, Institute for Political and International Studies, 1985,p.3 4-Encyclopedia Encarta,CD, Under Strategy , p.98

Figure 2. The relationship between national power, interests, and strategy

Source: Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 302

The relationship between national power, geopolitical weight and domain of influence: On the other hand, there is also a relationship between countries’ geopolitical weight, national power, and domain of influence. In this way, geopolitical weight of a country, which is applied to the mathematical sum of elements of national power 1, determines the 25F

position of the national power of a country and its geopolitical position among all countries and in the world. In addition, geopolitical weight and position affects the national strategy of a country in the region and in the world and determines that country’s domain of influence. In contrast, the quality and quantity of countries’ domain of influence affects their geopolitical weight and national power. Therefore, governments attempt to expand the domain of influence between them and it is by expanding the domain of influence, which is

1-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P.211

mainly a space-geographical concept, that national security is secured, threats are reduced, and national interests are satisfied. The following figure is indicative of this relationship.

1 26F

Figure 3: The relationship between Geopolitical weight, National power, and Domain of influence

Source: Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 212

On the whole, distribution of power in the international community is not equal and each political unit attempts to allocate to itself a greater proportion of power. On this basis, the desires and behavior of strong and weak governments in the international system and its emergence in the international arena is different. In other words, stronger governments, when faced with other countries’ power, are capable of preserving their independence and the more the power and capability of a government, the more expanded their domain of action. Moreover, in the international system, stronger countries enjoy more facilities and tools to preserve their interests and in turn weaker counties have more capability to bargain. 2 27F

In addition, governments and nations face difficult conditions for securing their interests

and desires and in regard to their relationship with other governments and getting out of it, while trying to secure the interests depends on the degree of national power of the country.

1 -Ibid 2-Ibid

When faced with a crisis, stronger counties change the conditions to their benefit, but weaker countries will be forced to tolerate the difficulties and ignore all or some of their desires and interests. It should be mentioned that the application of national power during the crisis depends on the characteristics of leaders of countries. 1 28F

In addition to all these, strong governments have a more expanded domain of national interests and thus face more conflicts in the arena of international politics. Meanwhile, the domain of interests of weak countries is usually local and regional and thus limited. For instance, in the post world War II periods, each international event affected the interests of the two superpowers of the US and Soviet Union in a way that any reaction or threatening action from the part of each of these two superpowers in the international system was considered a threat against the other one. This meant that the relative position of power of these two countries was controlled by the other one. Meanwhile, weak countries did not pay a lot attention about the events that were happening on the other side of the world because they were basically occupied with their own issues and their domain of interests did not go beyond the borders of their region.

2 29F

Another distinguishing feature of super powers and

weak countries is the expansion of their security domain. The relative power of superpowers provides them with the opportunity to fundamentally define and change the rules and regulations of international challenges and so wither stay immune to the consequences or reduce them to a minimum in spite of all repeated mistakes. They even sometimes transferred their wrong decisions to other parts of the world. This is while weaker countries are forced to pay a heavy price for each small mistake and because they cannot afford the price, their position will become very fragile. On the whole, great powers try to maintain their position in the arena of international relations and put an end to international challenges in a way that power will be distributed to their benefit. On the other hand, weaker countries that are not satisfied with the unequal distribution of power in the international system do not like to keep the current situation and

1-Sayed Abdol ali. Gavam, The Principles of foreign policy and international politics ,Tehran ,Samt press , 2001.p.63 2-Ali Asgar. Kazemi, Management of International crisis ,Tehran, farhang publication. 1989. p. 82

desire to make changes in the pattern and fabric of international system. 1 Table 1 is 30F

indicative of this issue. Table 1: Capability of the players

Source: Seifzadeh, (2003) , op. cit, P. 119

Table 1 shows the general capability of each of the players. Theoretically, the figure simply indicates that in the international political system, only power must be considered because lack of power makes a country weak and passive in the international arena. It should also be mentioned that although small and middle players would like to change the situation, they perforce to limit their ambitious to a great extent. 2 31F

Summary of discussion:

1-Ibid 2-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 118

1. The main applications of power include: securing national interests and expanding and preserving it, guaranteeing the accomplishment of the wishes of a nation or country, factor of survival and development of a nation and a country, following functional goals by intentional measures through affecting the international environment (in the international dimension), changing social resources to “applicable science” that produces the best possible military and non-military technology (domestic dimension) 2. There is a direct relationship between the national power of a country and its role in the international relations. In other words, the kind of foreign policy of a country guarantees its role in the international arena and this is the result of the national power of a country. 3. National strategy links national power and national interests. In fact, strategy of art and the nature of using power is for accomplishment of national goals. In a country, strategy is the art of political leaders so to look at the capabilities, abilities, and level of national power and on the other hand, look at national goals and interests. 4. There is a relationship between national power and geopolitical weight of a country as well as its domain of influence. Strong countries have a more expanded domain of national interests and face fewer obstacles in the way of achieving their goals. On the other hand, the domain of national interests of weak countries is limited and such countries face numerous failures and challenges in the way of achieving their goals. 1 32F

1-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The evaluation of the variables effective on national power and designing of the model for measurement of national power of countries .Thesis of Ph.D in political geography ,Tarbiat Modares University,Iran,2006, p. 45

Chapter Two: A Historical Approach at power-creating factors

One of the important issues in discussions on national power is the historical approach to regimes of power and power-creating factors in history. In more exact words, the question is in different periods what factors and tools caused the creation of hegemony and absolute power for a special country in the system of power. Fundamentally, seeking power, hegemony or control over regional affairs, parts or all of the world has been the main objective in geopolitical competitions 1 and the attempts by great powers has always been in 3F

this regard in order to achieve unique power-creating factors and tools have a better position in the current power system. Factors and tools for creating hegemony in the historical systems of power: 1-Pirouz. Mojtahed-Zadeh , Political Geography and Geopolitics, Tehran, Samt Publication,2002,p. 137

Trying to answer the question that in different periods of historical systems of power, what factors and tools caused the creation of hegemony and prior power for any particular country in the system of power, theorists have provided different explanations. Geographical location, communication means, military factors, economic factors, cultural tools, political position, or a combination of all these factors have been considered to be the means of gaining power. According to these theorists, the arena of international relations is the arena of competition between the players who try to increase their national power in 1

The table

Power,Tehran,

Quarterly

order to gain supremacy over other players in the international arena of power.

34F

below shows the different approaches toward hegemony. Table2: Different approaches toward Hegemony

Source:Joseph,Nye,quoted

by

Mohamad

Hossini

Moghadam,

Soft

Rahbord,2003,p.351

As it was mentioned before, theorists have expressed different opinions about hegemony-creating factors and tools in different historical periods. These theories are to be explained here:

1-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 87

 some scholars in the political science have emphasized that military power is one of the sources for creating hegemony. In such an approach, hegemonic supremacy is the result of military expansion. Thus, being equipped with weapons and fire units in the 14th and 15th centuries is regarded as a reason behind some changes in the distribution of power. 1 Moreover, the attempts made by Napoleon and Hitler in regard to military 35F

expansion have been considered to provide the grounds for hegemony in the political world. The important issue is that except for short periods in history, no military hegemony has proved successful in the recent centuries and no modern government has managed to develop its military power in a way to have enough power to create a longterm hegemony in the world. (Refer to Table 3). 2 36F

Table 3: Attempts for creating military Hegemony

Source: Joseph,Nye, quoted by Mohamad Hossini Moghadam, Soft Power,Tehran, Quarterly Rahbord,2003,p.353

 Some other theorists have attributed economic sources of power and its role to creating hegemony. According to this attitude, some economic sources for creating hegemony include: having an advantage over controlling raw materials, investment resources, markets, and production of goods  Some radical political economists like Wallerstein have also investigated the relationship between political and military hegemony and have offered different factors

1-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 87 2-Joseph. Nye, Power in the Global Information Age: From realism to globalization ,London: Routledge, 2004 ,p. 63

for creating hegemony. Immanuel Wallerstein describes hegemony as a situation in which power is so imbalanced that one power can impose most of its wished and rules on others in the economic, political, military, diplomatic, and even cultural arenas. The materialistic base of such a power is the result of its capability in taking brave and effective measures in all three main areas of economy (industrial production, agricultural production, trade, and financial affairs). 1 In return, theorists advocating hegemonic 37F

stability, usually reject the relationship between military and political hegemony and power. They state that in the 19th century Britain was not a super military power and it was not the biggest economic power in the world. Meanwhile, Britain is considered by some people like Giplin et al. a hegemonic power. 2 38F



Some have also describes hegemony on the basis of behavioral factors. On this basis,

hegemony refers to a government that can regulate laws and regulations as well as agreements for global economy. Robert Giplin, a prominent theorist in transfer of hegemony, states that Britain and the US, as hegemonic powers after industrial revolution, changed and implemented the rules of liberal economic system. Some political economists state that the stability of the system of global economy is in need of a defined factor for balance and stability periods accord with hegemonic periods. From this point of view, the peace periods in Britain and the US are two examples. The US and Britain were so strong that they compiled and implemented the rules and principles for liberal economic system in the international arena in the 19th and 20th centuries. For instance, it is believed that historically economic stability has been gained only when an exclusive hegemonic power existed, like Britain from 1815 until World War I and the US from 1945 until about 1970. With an exclusive hegemonic power, the rules of the game can be compiled and implemented. In such conditions, smaller countries have fewer choices and have to progress in the defined paths. Without a hegemonic power, war would be a widespread event.

3 39F

 Seifzadeh is another scholar who has offered some theories in regard to the value of players in the international system of power. He is of the conviction that two series of 1-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 87 2-Nye. (2004) , op. cit, P. 63 3-Ibid

hardware and software factors exist in both the domestic and foreign domains. These hardware and software domains can play a role as power-creating factors in increasing and decreasing the value of countries and powers. The following figure presents the gist. Figure 4. Change in the Esteem of the players

Source: Seifzadeh, (2003) , op. cit, P. 112

According to Seifzadeh, the 20th century witnessed the achievements resulting from four main changes in technological development. These four changes were in fact a response to the ambitions of giving power to humanity. Researches concerning the continuous scientific attempts combined the three factors of energy hardware, industry, and communication means along with logical ambitions and gained the following achievements:

∗ Technology, industry and transport means to conquer the surface and the depth of the earth by using oil and coal ∗ Technology, industry, and transport means to conquer the surface, depth, and bed of the sea by using electricity ∗ Technology and industry to conquer the surface and depth of space by using nuclear energy ∗ Information technology by using energy of the mind and experimental data for conquering the surface and depth of human mind According to Seifzadeh, in the international arena the players who have managed to make their hardware and software factors efficient, managed to enhance their position by regarding the requirements arising from international environment. The main evolution began in 1750. The three sources of energy, industry, and means of transport along with the ambition to conquer the sea, the earth and the space resulted in change. During the four revolutions, the colonized America turned into a four-dimensional superpower. Since then, the type of energy changed from tree coal to stone coal, and then oil, electricity, nuclear energy, and information energy.

In the domain of hardware, industry began in the two areas of physics-mechanics and chemistry. Physics, mechanics, and the advanced field of cybernetic provided the grounds for combining the factors and creating power. Chemistry was the factor for combining these elements. Industry gradually began from light industries. After that, such advanced industries like electronic brain, computer, and robot replaced them. In the area of communication, the means of conquering the sea were first ships and submarines and they provided humanity with the opportunity to access different locations and be able to move between places. Cars, trains, and subways provided this ability on the ground. Then moving on the surface did not seem to be enough, and thus submarines and spacecrafts were built and used to access the depth of the oceans and space. These hardware factors set the grounds for making modern human more capable. 1 40F

1-Seifzadeh. (2000) , op. cit, P. 113

Seifzadeh believes that domestic software factors should be regarded along with hard factors. Without having philosophical ambition for progress one cannot be hopeful to progress. Humanism and the thought for conquering the earth, the sea, and the sky were very influential in this progress. In order to gain such a high position, in the west the organization of the government- which was the factory of producing power- was first developed by Machiavelli and then became a philosophy by Hobbes The achievements of Locke, Rousseau, Montesquieu were very effective for setting the grounds for deepening nationalism. Not only democracy put an end to the discrepancy between high and low classes between people and intellectuals, it activated the whole society for enhancing national power. Instead of using the force of the government for controlling people or using the force of people for collapsing the government, democracy provided a model of intellectuality and provided national unity. Different revolutions occurred in the political, cultural, and economic grounds to determine how the citizens of developed countries should divide their tasks: government must manage and direct and people must produce power.

In the international arena, the two groups of hardware and software factors provide the requirements for foreign measures of the countries. Hardware requirements can be divided into three categories of military- political, economic-technological, and culturalcommunicative factors. Software factors in the international arena can also be divided into three groups of political structure (international order), international legal organizations, and international unions. Three international hardware requirements have left different effects on the power game and position of the players depending on environmental changes. In the past, the military-political structure was very effective. Gradually, the culturalcommunicative structure gained a more significant role. Each of the following changes shows us the role of the players. For instance, from the military-political viewpoint, players can be divided into five groups: superpowers, big powers, average powers, small powers, and tiny powers. Capabilities and activity domain of each of these powers is different.

Depending on the number of tools of power used by the players, each can be divided into multi-dimensional or single-dimensional power. 1 41F

 Just like Seifzadeh, who emphasizes on the element of cultural structure, Gramsci and Cox are other theorists of this field who claim that culture has an important role in creating hegemonic power. According to them, the attempts for leading the world are possible through the way of culture. Gramsci believes that a country will lead the world in the future that has the best interpretations of global changes.

2 42F

Such a country can

culturally lead other societies in the future.

 Peter Taylor, a scholar of political geography, has also proposed some theories in regard to the grounds of hegemony and the way geopolitical position of countries is subject to change. According to him: “in the arena of political geography, hegemony will govern a country that is very strong in regard to economy, politics, or culture for a short time. This cycle includes the emergence and fall of this position. This cycle begins when the ruling country gains a prior position in production and thus expands its leadership in order to gain commercial and financial fields. In addition, this country gains its political rule by jointly leading the countries in a successful competition with its main competitor. It then attempts to use international affairs to its benefit. The ruling country is then able to impose its cultural leadership and its liberal ideological values. however, after a short period the peak of its leadership role will gradually decline”. 3 43F

Taylor is of the conviction that a ruling country like the UK is mid 19th century and the US in mid 20th century, are not only superior in the military arena, but also allocate to themselves the economic and cultural resources of power so that to compile their regulations and to impose their international behavior. As a result, “US rule is not only indicative of change in the identity of ruling power, but it is also indicative of the

1-Seifzadeh. (2000) , op. cit, P. 120 2-Ibid 3-Richard. Muir, political geography A new introduction. Translated: Dore Mirhydar,Thran.2000.p.274

institutions and the methods through which the US has presented to the world its positions of power. Such issues include: production, massive consumption, limited welfare-social policies, electoral democracy based on weak political parties, and economic policies of the government in line with stimulating private economic activities”.



1 4F

Noam Chomsky is another theorist in regard to the global system of power.He

believes that competition for leading the international system and position of winner power is mainly economic. According to him, the structure of capitalism is in a way that being superior in economic-industrial power means gaining winner power in the system. Leaders of capitalist governments consciously try to achieve this aim and position. From Chomsky’s point of view it is for maintaining such superior and winner position and global ruling that the US wants to keep its technological superiority over other countries.

2 45F

 Quincy Wright is another scholar who believes in the role of economic factors in creating military hegemonic power. He mentions the role of economic factors and regards the economic capability of a country for tolerating the cost of war as an intensifying factor for war. According to him: “countries always seek to increase their military capabilities for war. A new war will happen when a country reconstructs its economic capability. Heavy industries consider the time suitable for giving speed to their production of war weapons”. To Quincy Wright, the first measure in this phase is that imperialistic tendencies will reappear. Then in order to justify these tendencies, the factor of defense against invasions will be proposed. Gradually, some sort of war polarization will happen. The new situation encourages those powers that are in risk to find solutions and then war will become inevitable. He describes the changes in patterns of industry of war and divides it into four important periods of discovery in war industry. 1. Period of experimental adaption of war weapons and religious wars (1450-1648)

1-Ibid .p. 275 2-Noam. Chomsky, Deterring Democracy, trans: Mhvash Golami, Tehran, Etelaat Publication, 1992,p. 74

2. Period of emergence of professional armies and tribal wars (1648-1789) 3. Period of industrialization and national wars 4. Period of full-scale wars and emergence of air and military industries (1914 onward) 1 46F

 Modelski is another theorist who has proposed some factors as the tools of great powers for ruling the world. In his theory called “theory of power cycle” has considered some hypotheses for achieving sovereign power. Among them is that the political leadership of the world is in need of leadership in the economic power because economic power gives order to global economy and facilitates giving order to the political structure and war technology. Alongside political determining power, he considers the waves of political innovation. In fact, he attaches more significance to political power and the innovations resulting from it, but believes an economic power is needed to achieve and to implement these supremacies. Therefore, there is a need for a combination of political and economic innovation in order to gain a position in regard to leading the world. According to the two kinds of innovations stated above, global communications industry will revolutionized as well.

2 47F

Using this frame of history,

Modelski predicts that in the future cyclic changes will cause the emergence of two processes. 1) decline of US leadership 2)possible changes in the process of global wars. Explaining the first item, he insists that US leadership has not arrived to its end yet. In order to keep this position, the US aims to maintain its leadership by creating some sort of political and economic innovation inside its borders. However, to Modelski, this wish will come true only when the US succeeds to strategically emphasize its political innovations. In regard to the second item, Modelski claims that global war will turn into global peace and thus the future global leadership will be mainly based in political, technological, and economic merits rather than military power.

3 48F

also Modelski and

William Thompson in book ” Leading Sectors and World” present new Model about 1-Quincy. Wright, A Study of War, Chicago, University of Chicago press,1942, p.295-8 2-Seifzadeh. (2000) , op. cit, P. 120 3-Ibid

Leading Sectors in creation Hegemonic Control during historical ages. The following Figure 5, expresses this issue:

Figure 5: “Leading Sectors” Underlying Hegemonic Control in History

SOURCE: George. Modelski and William R. Thompson, Leading Sectors and World Powers (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1996), p. 69.

Chapter Three: Sources and Factors of national power

National power has different sources and basics that produce national power in one single function. The main factors forming national power of countries are in different domains. Geopolitical science, which investigates and evaluates national power of countries, pays attention to all these factors. Some of these factors of power have a basic and fundamental role and some other considered secondary.

1 49F

Power of countries depends on different factors and resources and it actually arises from them. Economic, individual, scientific and spiritual, social factors and the like can all be 1-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The evaluation of the Models of measurement of national power, Tehran, Geopolitics Quatrerly , Geogrphical Organization ,winter 2008, p.155

sources of power. Factors of national power are both in regard to quality and quantity, it means variables of each of the abovementioned factors can have both quantity and quality aspects. Since the issue of national power has been regarded by geography scientists, geopolitics and political geography professionals, political science and international relations specialists, strategy makers and politicians, each group has tried to provide to present a list of the factors affecting national power and most of these factors have been agreed upon. However, the common problem in all of them, which has not dealt with yet, is measuring national power and its indexes. 1 Due to the existence of some quality factors 50F

and impossibility of measuring them, no one has managed to offer a proper and complete model for comprehensive measuring of national power. However, some researches have managed to assess and compare the power of countries on the basis of some factors and variables and thus show the position of countries and regions in the world. On the whole, power is either assessed in comparison to another power or in comparison to a number of important indexes or level of power. In other words, an average of the producing factors of power in one country is assessed. 2 51F

Different points of view on factors ,foundations and sources of national power: Scholars in different fields such as political science, international relations, political geography and geopolitics have expressed their viewpoints for explaining the resources of power in different countries. Here the viewpoints and opinions of different experts in regard to the factors and bases of different countries’ power will be presented in brief:  David Jablonsky explains the variables of national power as: 1. Natural factors of power, including: A. Geography: location, climate, size, topography that affect national capacity B. Population: size, processes, structure, etc. C. Natural resources: raw materials of agriculture and farming, mines, burning materials, access quality and etc. 2. Social factors of power including:

1-roshandel. op. cit ,p.70 2-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 70

A. Economy: economic capacity and development, high technology, economic growth, GDP, economic policy, economic relations ,etc B. Army and military capacity: force, weapon technology, and etc. C. Political factors, spirit, governance form, population attitude, management and skill of administration, D. Psychological factor, national behavior, national character and spirit, national integrity

1 52F

 Hans Morgenthau, one of the founders of Realism movement in international relations, divides the main variables and factors of national power into 8 parts, which are: 1. Geographical location 2. Natural resources (particularly food and raw material) 3. Industrial capacity 4. Military preparation (particularly technology, leadership, quantity and quality of armed forces) 5. Population (particularly distribution and tendencies) 6. National character, national spirit 7. Diplomatic quality 8. Government quality 2 53F

 Organski, considers the following factors the sources of national power: population

size,

political

capability

of

government,

and

economic

development. Combining these factors, GDP is considered to be the means of measuring national power. 

3 54F

Nicholas Spikeman, the American Geo-politician, believes that the following

variables are the foundations of power: country’s size, identity of borders, population,

1-Jablonsky. op. cit,P. 43 2-Hans. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1967, quoted by ،Hoshang Amery ,Principle of International Relations, Agah press, 2002, p.33 3-A.F.K. Organski, World Politics, New York: Knopf, 1958 , quoted by roshandel, op. cit ,p.68

natural resources, economic and industrial development, financial power, racial compatibility, amount of social integrity, political stability, and national spirit. 1 5F

 Martin Glassner, scholar of political geography, names the variables of national power as: 1. Land, including: location, size, shape, expansion, strategic depth, natural resources, environmental foundations 2. Population, including: quality and quantity aspects such as number, gender and age relations, military force arising from it, immigration, level of education, literacy, distribution of wealth, national quality, national combination, smart people, social institutions, way of thinking and national interests 3. Government, structure, efficiency, populism, general acceptability, quality of managers and political leaders, health of performance, lawfulness, and etc. 4. Economy: wealth, GDP, capacity of production, trade surplus, science and technology, investment, research, industry, skill of human force, management, agriculture, bank, insurance, etc. 5. Communications: transport, goods flow, services, and beliefs, level of awareness, radio, telephone, TV, media, etc. 6. Military force: equipment, force, education, quality of governance, motivations, logistics, military doctrine, strategy and tactic, information system, preparation of the forces, strategic bases, strategic partners. 7. Foreign relations: international trade, cultural relations, participation in distribution and transfer of development resources, participation in the UN and other international organizations, international position and prestige.

2 56F

 Guido Fischer, German author, considers the following three groups the variables of national power:

1-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 172 2-Martin. Glassner ,Political Geography , John wieley and sons, New York,1993,P.260

1. Political factors, including: geographical location, size of land, population size and distribution, organizational skill and cultural level, types of borders and the position of neighboring countries. 2. Psychological factors, including: economic flexibility and skill in invention, tolerance and perseverance, talent and capacity of change and transfer 3.

Economic factors, including: capacity of the land and underground wealth, industrial organization and level of technology, foreign trade development, financial resources. 1 57F

 Another German author, named Rudolf Steinmetz, considers the following eight elements the contributing variables to national power: 1. Population; 2. Size of the land; 3. Wealth; 4. political facilities; 5. Quality of governance; 6. National unity and integrity; 7. Maintaining the respect and friendship of foreign powers; 8. Behavioral quality

2 58F

 Huang Suofeng, the well-known Chinese scholar, in his book titled “comprehensive national power” mentions that soft power is made up of: political power, educational and cultural power, diplomatic power, and partnership power:

 Political power includes political system, strategic goals, social stability, national unity, capacity of making decisions and organization. Cultural and educational power means the quality of the work force, development of human resources, educational investment, educational system, educational comprehensiveness, teachers’ quality, quality of cultural authorities, spread of TV, film, books, journals, and their influence in the international arena, diplomatic power including foreign relations, foreign policy, foreign activities, and the ability of cooperating in the international community. The power of partnership is principally refers to the ability of controlling and supervising team work.

3 59F

1-Hoshang. Amery ,Principle of International Relations, Agah press, 2002, p.328 2-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The introduction to national power, Tehran, Research Institute of Strategic Studies, 2009,p. 124 3-ZHU. Majie ,Role of Soft Power in International Relations ,Taken from Internet:http://www.Siis .org.cn/English/journal/en 2003/Zhumajie.htm

 John Wakelin , in his book titled “The Roots of Diplomacy” names the factors and variables of national power as follows: 1. Geographical factors, including: size, shape, natural situation, borders, situation, geographical realm and conditions 2. Military factors, including: defense budget, number of personnel, military equipment, techniques, strong movements, quality of military leadership. 3. Economic factors, including: resources, food, productions, energy 4. Colonies, including: resources of colonies, human force, military bases of colonies 5. Social and human factors, including: population, national characteristics and national spirit, social unity 6. Political factors, including: political stability, leadership, governance, factor of popularity, national prestige, applied quality of resources of national power. 1 60F



In his book titled “international Relations in the Changing World”, Joseph Frankel

names the power-creating factors as: population, geography, economy, government and military organization, psychological-social factors, and international strategic situation.

2 61F

 National Institute of Studies in Japan has designed the project of comprehensive national power of Japan and has offered 3 main factors for calculating the comprehensive national power of a country. These factors are: capacity of international cooperation, ability of survival, power of force, capacity of international cooperation to the capabilities of the country and its presence in the international arena. Capacity of survival depends on national determination and friendly union and the power of force emphasizes the capability of the country in management of its foreign relations.

3 62F

 Saul,b.Cohen, the contemporary American scholar of political geography, names the factors affecting power and the role of each of the components of system such as governments and countries, as: 1-John. Wakelin ,The Roots of Diplomacy, Trans: Abdolali Gavam ,Tehran, Gomes press, 1991,p. 69-71 2-Joseph. Frankel, International relations in a changing World, Tehran, Translate by Abdolrahman Aalem, Institue for Political and International Studies,2003, p.150 3-Majie. op.cit ,p.4

1. Domestic factors and changes such as political, economic, social, cultural and technological structure. 2. Foreign factors such as foreign trade, political relations, military bases, foreign partners, immigration issue, etc which help the development and mutual interaction between countries and governments as well as the connection between them as components of the system. 3. Domestic forces which are present in the foreign countries. 1 63F

Based on ten factors of investment, agricultural production, industrial production, export, developmental research, number of scientists, number of engineers, reduction of foreign debts, scientific exchange, and number of pattern inventions, Cohen designed a pattern to evaluate countries.

2 64F

 John M. Colins in his work titled “Big Strategy”, names the following factors as the variables of national power: influential political force in the domestic and international arenas, national character, educations and science, and many other factors. 

In his model for measuring national power, Ray Cline mentions the following

elements as factors of power: economic capacity and capability, population and expansion, tendency to continue national strategy, strategic objective, military capability and capacity.

3 65F

 Friedrich Ratzel has also emphasized on the role of two factors of expansion and location of countries on their power. 4 6F

 Pamer and Parkins contribute countries’ power to seven phenomena: Geographical situation, mineral resources, technology, population, ideology, national spirit, leadership. 5 67F

1-Saul.B. Cohen ,Geopolitics in the new world Era, In Reordering in the world ,USA :west view press ,1994, P.43 2-Ibid 3-Tellis .et al. op. cit , p.30 4-Doreh. Mirhydar, political geography, Tehran, Samt press, 1998, p.6 5-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 119

 Jalil Roshandel in his book titled national security and international system, names the factors of national power as: geographical factors, including: climate, geographical situation, expansion, raw material, natural resources *human factors, including: population, population combination, population quality, human force, industrial human force *cultural factors, including: cultural heritage, national unity, ideology *structure of government, including: political form of the government, efficiency of government.

1 68F

 Ali Asghar Kazemi names the following variables as the factors of national power: 1.

Geographical location; 2. Population and human force; 3. Production capacity and ability, resource and factories; 4. Transport and communication; 5. Scientific talents, innovations and inventions; 6. Economic system; 7. Administrative and governmental organization; 8. Strategic situation; 9. Ideology and social behavior; 10. Information and knowledge; 11. Military equipment; 12. Leadership wisdom.



2 69F

Jamrasani Farahani believes that the elements of national power are formed from

domestic tools as well as the tools of the allies. These tools include: political force dominating the thoughts and actions of those inside and outside the country, geographical strength and weakness, economic power particularly natural resources, capacity of industries, financial credits, living location, spirit and education, scientific and technological base, military and leadership equipment.

3 70F

 In his book titled “Different Theories in International Relations”, Hussein Seifzadeh considers the variables of power to be: 1. Geographical situation; 2. National resources; 3. Population; 4. Quality of government; 5. National spirit; 6. Quality of leadership; 7. Nationalism; 8. National characteristics; 9. Ideology; 10. Democracy; 11. Capacity and degree of leadership in a nation.

4 71F

1-roshandel. OP. CIT,P. 69 2-Kazemi. op. cit (1994), p. 139 3-Ali reza. Gamrasani Farahany, concepts of national security, Tehran, 1995,p. 24 4-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Different Theories in International Relations, Tehran, Gomes publication,1995, p. 141



Kenneth N. Waltz suggests the following items: “population size and land size,

resources, economic capability, military power, stability and political capability”. 

1 72F

Joshua GoldStein in International Relation emphasizes the significance of

population, land, geography, natural resources as well as political culture, nationalism, and science and technology as the sources of power. However, among the sources of power, he attaches great significance to geography and geopolitical situation of the country and says the most important factors of great position of a government are: location, location, and location. 2 73F

 From a Geopolitical point of view, factors of power include: A. Fixed factors including, 1. Space and its divisions; 2. Land or location; 3. Expansion of the land; 4. Natural resources and paths; 5. Shape of the country B. Dynamic factors, including: 1. Population and residents; 2. Natural resources; 3. Political, social, and cultural organizations.

3 74F

 Tahami explain the factors of national power as: 1. Economic factors, including: economic development, good economic and commercial relations with other countries, lack of unemployment (creating job opportunities), not being dependent on one single production, economic and technological independence, fair distribution of income 2. Cultural and social factors, including: resolving ideological conflicts, solving the issue of immigration, cultural enhancement, cultural exchanges with other nations, removing the gaps between the poor and the rich, freedom and creating social justice, lack of brain drain, resolving the negative effect of foreigners propaganda, solving the problem of environmental pollution 3. Political factors, including: resolving border disputes, political unity and sympathy with other countries particularly the neighboring countries, strengthening the 1-Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics Reading, son-Wesley, 1979, quoted by Tellis ,et al. op. cit , p.32 2-Joshua .Goldstein, International Relations. New York, Longman, 1999, p.59 3-Ezatolah . Eezaty, Geopolitics, Tehran, Samt press, 1998,p. 25

position of the government, resolving tribal disputes, political agreement, national unity 4.

Military factors, including: resolving border disputes, resolving tribal disputes

1 75F

 Abdol Ali Ghavam explains the factors and variables of power in his book titled Principles of Foreign Policy and International Policy. 1. Ideology and political values that bring legitimacy and acceptability for the political system 2. Social-human factors, including: population size, national features, national spirit, social integrity 3. Political factors, including: political stability, leadership, form of government, national credibility 4. Geographical factors, including: expansion, shape, natural situation, borders and location 5. Military factors, including: weapons, equipments, quality of human forces, leadership, ,military budget, bases, military techniques, motivation of forces, logistics. 6. Economic factors, including: GDP, annual income, quality of industrial and agricultural productions, access to resources, degree of dependence on financial and economic resources of other countries. 2 76F

 Abbas Nabavi also names the sources of power in his book titled The Philosophy of Power: In a general investigation, the sources of power can be identified as: “first, natural resources and what is given to humanity by nature for producing power. Second, human resources and what is used inside human beings and the human society for producing power. Third, extra-terrestrial resources and what is effective and influential outside nature and humanity for producing political-social power”. To him, each source of creating power has the following elements:

1-Mogtaba.Tahami, national security and defence politics, Tehran, University of national defence ,1995, p.33 2-Abdol Ali. Ghavam, Principles of Foreign Policy and International Policy, Tehran, Samt press, 2004, p. 69

1. Natural sources, including: time, natural material (by possession), geographical situation, and natural capabilities. 2. Human resources, including: population, science, culture, and beliefs 3. Extraterrestrial resources

1 7F

 Richard Muir, an scholar in the field of political geography, presented a combined model consisting of five variables which was able to provide a tentative estimation of national power of countries. These variables included: expansion, population, production of alloy, size of army and military forces, number of nuclear submarines.

2

78F

 Mohammad Reza Hafiznia divides the most important power-creating factors into 9 groups in his book titled “Principle and concepts of Geopolitics”. 1. economic factors, including: A. Infrastructures of production such as national investment, national savings, degree of flow of the assets, natural resources, transport, energy, space, etc. B. Capacity of production, such as: industrial production, agricultural production, farming production, production of technical and professional services C. Level of production, such as: GDP, production per capita, surplus of national production, international success of production, combination of production D. Production exchange such as export, import, and trade balance E. Wealth and financial resources such as: foreign loans, international savings of currency, international investment, financial services (bank and insurance), wealth of residents abroad 2. Land factors or natural geographical factors, including: A. Location such as geopolitical, strategic, communication and climate situation. B. Situation such as shape, topography, situation of borders, natural security, climate C. Expansion and space such as constructed, exploitable spaces, strategic depth, environmental foundations (water, land, plants, etc).

1-Abbas. Nabavy , philosophy of power, Tehran, Ssmt press, 2000, p.126 2-Richard. Muir, ,.Modern Political Geography .Mac Millan Education:London and Hong Kong, 1981, p.150

3. Political factors, such as: political stability, efficiency of government organization, leadership and political management, form of government, domestic security 4. Scientific factors including: A. Scientific foundation such as number of universities, scientific and research centers, lecturers, researchers, scientists, etc. B. Production of science such as number of graduates, number of high school students, published books, number of scientific journals, scientific articles, researches, scientific conferences, number of inventions and discoveries. C. Scientific exports such as: number of published articles in foreign journals or foreign conferences, number of published books outside the country, number of scientists abroad, number of registered inventions outside the country, etc. 5. Social factors such as: A. Population: number, age combination, age longitude, general death, death of children B. Degree of compatibility and national unity (religious, language, tribes) C. Social welfare: annual income, health situation, level of accommodation possession, level of access to hygienic water, etc. 6. Cultural factors, including: A. level of culture: degree of literacy, book use per capita, media per capita, computer per capita, number of internet users B. National features and characteristics: national honors, national characteristics (tolerance and struggles) C. Ideology and beliefs D. Cultural heritage and national history and country

7. Military factors such as quantity and quality of human force, equipment and weapons, quality of command (strategy, tactic, military arts, etc), organizational quality, support and logistics, force combination, strategic weapons. 8. Factors Trans-national including: international competitors and partners, diplomatic capability, residents of the country living abroad, presence and role in international organizations, military bases beyond the borders. 9. Space factors (including number of research satellites, number of space stations, etc). 1 79F

Criticism and evaluation of theoretical models of factors(variables) of national power: Investigating the abovementioned models and theories in regard to the sources of national power, a number of issues can be mentioned as conclusion 2: 80F

1. As it has been shown in Figure 6, a great part of these factors and variables are shared between the models, however, this has been stated in different ways, but they share the same nature.

1-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 255 2-zarghani, (2009), op .cit, p. 160

2. “Although these models are in most cases similar, these models have not been able to measure national power in a particular framework; because some variables of national power have just quality aspect . 3. The most important factors and variables affecting national power have been separated on the basis on the abovementioned theories in the frame of 27 variables and the percentage of each variable has been investigated as shown in Figure 6 Figure 6: Repetition of the national power variables in 28 variant theories

Source: Zarghani,(2008),op. cit. p.232

On this basis, as it has been shown in the above figure, in the 28 theories and models the variables forming national power are the three variables of: A. Population, quality and quantity features B. Quality of leadership, management, quality of government

C. Natural resources, raw materials, mines Having the highest percentage (repetition) and three factors of: Strategic factors, transport, tribal compatibility have the lowest percentage. 4. In all of the abovementioned models, those variables that are considered to be quality and are not measurable are mentioned alongside the quantity factors forming national power. The most important quality factors forming national power have been mentioned in Table 4 Table 4: The quality factors and variables of national power

Source: Zarghani,(2006),op. cit. p.232

5. A great number of model designers have generally emphasized on the effect of geographical factors and features in national power and have considered geographical situation of a country to be the most important factor of national power. Some have even gone beyond this and have said that the policy of each country determines the geography of that country.

1 81F

In spite of this, reviewing the combination of conceptual models that

have been presented, it seems that the values of the factors forming national power are different to different model designers. In this regard, the great expansion and proper geographical location, demographic factors, scientific and technological factors, military capabilities, economic capabilities and finally the role and importance of the country in the global system of power has been emphasized by different scholars. The important issue in this regard is that the combination of different factors is a better indicative of national power rather than the limited number of factors or emphasis on a particular aspect of capabilities such as economic, political, or military capabilities. In addition, the national power of a country would be the result of the performance of power-creating and weakness-creating factors and the mathematical sum of the positive and negative aspects of their performance would constitute the national power 2. 82F

6.

There are numerous factors of political in different aspects such as political,

economic, cultural, and military aspects, however, they have different positions in a way that some have a fundamental position in comparison to others and some follow others. Some influence national power directly and some indirectly. Some aspects like location, export resources and others have a direct influence. 3 83F

7.

Some of the abovementioned factors do not always have a power-creating

performance and have sometimes a negative role. For instance high population growth and high population can cause problems for a poor country and it can unstabilize the government because of shortage of food, increase of demand for social services and etc.

1-Roshandel. op. cit. p.71 2-Zarghani. (2006),op. cit. p.232 3-Hafeznia. (2003), op. cit, p.49

and can help the rise of tension in social relations among the poor and wealthy classes of the society. 1 84F

8. Investigation and evaluation of some factors of power such as number of personnel in the army, nuclear weapons, and amount of raw materials such as oil is very simple. However, some other factors of power particularly the factors such as national spirit, national characteristics, quality of diplomacy, government, and leadership are more difficult to be estimated and evaluated. On the other hand, it is obvious that factors of power are interrelated because for instance having access to rich raw materials would not be of great use without technological progress. Due to the dependence of these factors on one another and since the factors of power cannot be carefully measured or cannot be assessed using an exact quantity criteria. The attempt to show the power of a country by using figures and statistics cannot be exact since figures are usually not able to provide a correct indication of the power of a country particularly because such important quality factors influence this area. The existence of potential help, degree of sacrifice of people, their capacity for tolerating hardship, flexibility of the country’s organizations, technical skill and science are among the quality factors that determine the whole power of a country. 9.

Since we live in the era of the imbalance of technological advances, the relative

significance of different capabilities are always changing. For instance, oil has substituted coal as the main resource of energy and it itself can be replaced by Uranium in the future. If nuclear processes by combination reach a stage to release energy, then uranium tool will lose its value. In that case, few atomic materials would be needed. Weapons constantly get old, submarines and huge ships get useless, ballistic shuttles replace airplanes and their pilots after a while. Technology is not the only phenomenon that is changing. Not only from the evolution of new raw materials and weapons, but also smaller changes in the relations of power can produce huge gaps in the efficiency of government or in people’s attitude. 2 85F

1-Nicholas. Eberstad , Population Change and National Security ,Foreign Affairs, Summer 1991,VOL 70,No.3,p.11 2 -Francel. op.cit, p.147

10. Designers of the model, with regard to the time of their life, have attached importance to special factors in their models. These factors have depicted higher powercreating value in that particular time. In fact, the majority of the abovementioned theories are in regard to the 20th century and particularly the 50s until 70s. As a result they do not accord with updates and do not include the new power-creating factors. This can be considered to be the most important problem of the abovementioned models. In addition, the majority of these conceptual models are not comprehensive. In other words, they do not include the different aspects of power (economic, cultural, military, social, political, etc.). However, there are a few exceptional models among them one can mention the models presented by Martin Glassner, Ashly Telis et al., John Week Lin, Ali Asghar Kazemi, Abdol Ali Ghavam, and Hafiznia. The models presented by Hafiznia and the model offered by Ashli Telis et al., which have been published in Evaluation of National Power in the Post-Industrial Era published in 2000, is of higher value both in regard to the comprehensiveness of the model and in regard to the new power-producing factors such as factors of information technology, communications, and nano-technology in this model. 1 86F

Suggested Conceptual model of national power: After investigation and evaluation of the above models, the model presented by Hafiznia proved to be more comprehensiveness in regard to variety, number of variables affecting national power, consideration for positive and negative performance of the variables, and emphasis on strategic variables compatible with current time. Therefore, this model was used as the conceptual model for designing the operational model of assessing national power. Features of this model include: 1-Zarghani. (2008), op. cit, p. 152

Those factors and variables in regard to quantity that affect national power that can be used to design the model for evaluation of national power of countries, can be divided into nine groups. Each of these factors is composed of a number of variables. These nine factors include: Figure 7 : Model with nine factors of national power

Source: Hafeznia,2006, p.161

In regard to the above model, it is important to mention a few points: A.

The factors of this model in each group is put in the multi-level relation that can be

determined in the following way: Table 5: conceptual and operational variables of national power

Sourcs: Hafeznia,(2003), op. cit, p272

The relationship between factors of power is depicted in the following model. Figure 8: The Linear relationship between factors of power

Sourcs: Hafeznia,(2003), op. cit, p273

B.

Some of the factors and variables of the model are of quantity nature and are not

measurable and thus measuring the power will cause problems. Therefore, one of the following methods must be chosen. They must possibly be transformed into operational variables and measurable factors. In other words, measurable factors must be introduced for them. For instance, for political cooperation, the factor of number of votes in national elections (presidential election) can be used. Another way is to evaluate national power on the basis of the factors and variables that are of quantity nature and they can be used in the framework of quality analysis of national power of the country and its comparison with other countries. If it is not possible to use either of these methods, power must be ignored in their evaluation. C.

1 87F

Since the aim behind designing this conceptual model is designing the model of

evaluating national power, it has been attempted to regard the validity of the sources of collecting data and to emphasize on those variables, which have comprehensive quantity data (for more than 150 countries).

1-Hafeznia. (2003), op. cit, p272

Chapter Four: Approaches to Measuring of national power

Power of different countries can be compared in different conceptual ways. It seems that three dimensions are particularly significant. “Weight” explains the degree to which a certain government can be influenced. “Grounds”, instead of functional aspects, refers to the series of issues in which power leaves an effect (such as economic or military) and “domain” refers to the geographical aspects, regional arenas, inside the region or the world of power, and the number of governments and other factors. 1 In addition, it is possible to 8F

perform the measurement in two forms of direct “metric” or indirect “evaluation”. In the first kind of measurement, there is a clear factor, basis and tool for expressing the quantity of the issue or the amount of the issue under investigation. However, in the second form of measurement, the issue under investigation is complicated and is a combination of different factors and thus there is not a clear factor or tool for its measurement. Power is among the phenomena that is impossible to be measured directly and is extremely difficult to be measured indirectly.

2 89F

Calculating and measuring national power and designing a model with which we can compare countries in a certain time and or the situation of one country in two different times has always been one of the challenges facing scientists in political geography, geo-political, international relations and political science. In this respect, to measure the power of countries in all stages after war many efforts have been made especially in the 60's and 70's. 3 90F

These attempts can be divided into three categories: some scholars have just introduced the factors affecting national power in the framework of the elements constituting national power and thus have identified a number of variables as the most important factors affecting national power of countries. The second group, while presenting a conceptual model, has tried to measure national power of countries on the basis of the scores gained from their hypothetic variables. Finally, the third group, while choosing some of the factors and variables by using a mathematical model, and identifying the nature of the relationship and the combination of the hypothesized variables, have tried to evaluate the national power of

1-Frankel. op.cit , p.154 2-Mehdy. Motahar nia, Concept of power in politic and international relations,Tehran, Institue for Political and International Studies, 1999, p. 158 3- Tellis. et al. op. cit , p.12

countries. Different viewpoints in regard to factors of national power were completely explained in the previous chapter. While examining the viewpoints of different scholars, this chapter evaluates the conceptual models and mathematical model of evaluating national power and while expressing the problems, provides the theoretical framework of the proposed model for evaluation of national power. Evaluation of national power: a vain attempt or resolving a big problem Fundamentally speaking, there are different attitudes towards the issue of measuring national power among the scholars. These opinions sometimes contradict one another in a way that designing a model for measuring national power seems impossible to some scholars. In contrast, some other scholars are of the conviction that it is an inevitable necessity and is the way of solving an important problem in political geography. In order to gain more information on some of these attitudes, some are to be explained here:  Peter Taylor, the contemporary scholar of political

geography, considers the

presentation of a comprehensive model of calculating national power a solution of one big problem in political geography. He believes that since power is among the notions that cannot be evaluated directly, then calculation of power of countries has turned into a major setback. 

1 91F

Joseph Frankle is among the people who believe that power cannot be exactly

measured. According to him: “one of the theories that obscures the notion of “power” in international relations, is the idea that power is completely measurable because some tasks as counting the armed soldiers, capacity of warships, capability of alloy industry that serves the demands of war can be increased and compared. Power of the government encompasses a number of important factors that are usually referred to as the capabilities.

However, these factors do not explain the reason power can be

completed. The fact that some of these factors can be considered in regard to their quantity, should not give us the impression that power can be measured. Analysis of the

1-Taylor. peter, op cit , p.29

performance of governments provides a better notion of their power in comparison to statistical data. 1 92F

 Richard muir another political geographician, regard all the attempts to measure national power as indicative of a positivist approach in its best and believe: “power cannot be measured exactly because power with regard to the enemies and in regard to the expansion of other variables such as location in which power is being imposed, is a relative phenomenon. For instance, in the post-war years the enforcement of power of the US gained that country much more success in the central and south America rather than in the Middle East….in addition, any hypothesis that such obscure or unstable factors as spirit, national determination, nationalism, or temporary factors such as the quality of leadership can be decreased to mathematic value is indefensible and baseless. 2 93F

 Francis baken is among those who consider the evaluation of national power almost impossible and even a mistake. He states: “the size of a country in regard to expansion of the land can be measured and the income and possessions of that country are calculable. Population can be determined by collecting statistics and the number or the size of cities can be gained by using maps and cards. In spite of all these, nothing is more wrong than the idea that an exact evaluation or a proper judgment about power and the forces of a country are possible  Seifzadeh believes that calculation of the physical capabilities of a nation cannot be indicative of the power of that country and thus those capabilities and abilities that deal with quality, such as psychology and determination, must be considered as well as the resources and the hardware. It is usually said that the power of a nation is the combination of the capabilities of that nation. However, this definition cannot express the gist of the matter. Although power always encompasses some abilities but it includes other dimensions as well. Although the capabilities of a nation are measurable, power includes some psychological capabilities and requirements. The discussion about

1-Frankel. op.cit , p.44 2-Muir. op.cit ,P. 273

psychology of power is very complicated and sensitive because it largely depends on the images different nations hold in regard to one another. In other words, measurement of physical capabilities of a nation cannot indicate its power and psychology and determination must be regarded as much as resources and the hardware. 1 94F

 Jeffrey Heart: “in spite of the possibility of analysis of the quantity factors of power such as GDP, number of military forces, the quality factors of power such as leadership, ideology, political legitimacy are not easy to measure”.

2 95F

 Afshordi, too, believes that it is difficult to evaluate national power due to its quality nature and active nature of some factors of power. He says: “determining the national power of countries is not a simple task. Material and spiritual factors with potential forms affect the formation of national power of a country, however, in most cases it is not possible to give them quantity and compare them with one another. The nature of the factors forming national power is in a way that some are quality, some are active, and some data cannot be measured. These features make it difficult to exactly evaluate the national power of countries. 3 96F

 In contrast, some other scholars consider studying this issue a waste of time and a vain attempt. Prescott, a scholar in the field of political geography, is among these people. He believes: attempts for measuring the national power of a country is a vain attempt that was performed in the previous decades and fortunately scientists of our era do not waste their time with such issues.

4 97F

 Some have also warned that the methods of measuring power can lead us to some errors. For instance, Hans Morgenthau has warned that single-variable approaches should be avoided in calculating national power and extra attention must not be paid to

1-Seifzadeh. (1995), op. cit, p.140 2-Jeffrey .Hart, Three Approaches to the Measurement of power in international Relation .International Organization ; No.30,1976,p.300 3-Mohammad Hossein. Afshordi, Geopolitics of the Caucasus and the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of iran,Tehran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 2002, p.237 4-JR,V. Prescott, New approach in political geography, Translated by Doreh Mirhydar, Tehran University,1972,p. 52

each of the factors when measuring national power.

1 98F

Moreover, Muir emphasizes that

geographical factors influence the power of a country and warns us not to express something that reminds us of environmental fatalism or raw geopolitics. 2 H& M. Spravt 9F

are among those who warn against evaluation of national power or in their viewpoint “analysis of capabilities”. According to them: “it is nonsense to speak of capabilities in abstract. Capability always means the ability of performing a task or creating or continuing the conditions. Political hypotheses might remain implied. However, since some aims and tools have not been predicted, no calculation is possible. Having access to some natural factors is not important at all…the data related to physical geography does not have political significance in nature. This also applied to the data regarding population, technology, economy or environment. These factors have political significance only when they are related to a series of hypotheses on the following issues: what is supposed to be performed, what are the means, when and where it is to be performed and against which enemies, friends, or audience. 3 10F

Some reasons have been the cause of not being able to design an extensive national power plan by scientists,for example:  Power is a term which is integrated with qualitative variables and indexes and measuring of them are difficult 

Variables which can be quantified are crucially affected by those which cannot; for

example ,it is a simple matter to add up the population or numbers of fighter aircraft which a state possesses, but so far impossible to gain an accurate measure of the morale, aptitudes or national character of the population or the deployment and effectiveness of the fighters in changing and unforeseen situation. 4 10F

 Because national power and Its indexes are in different areas ,so accessing a counterbalanced quantitative pattern and determining their quantitative co-efficient is hard.

5 102F

1-Tellis . et al. op. cit , p.38 2- Muir. op.cit ,P. 277 3.Ibid 4-Muir. op.cit ,p.148 5-Hafeznia, 2006, op.cit , p.284

 The elements of power continually interact with one another and cannot be evaluated in isolation ;for example ,an efficient military machine may be compromised by incompetent government intervention, or a resource may be held in quantities far in excess of the demand for it, as with hydroelectric potential in norway  The calculation of an index of state power would be impossible even if the individual elements of state power could each be measured, since a value for efficient government could not be equated with one for ,say, coal production. 1 103F

 As Frankel has pointed out that the influence exerted in international affairs need not correspond to state power; in the late 1920s the USA could be rank has the most powerful state followed by Germany, the UK, France, Russia, Italy, Japan, while France,s influence in international affairs was far greater than that of the USA, which would on this count have been placed near the foot of this list. 2 104F

In spite of the existence of different, and sometimes contradictory, viewpoints, it is not surprising that most theoreticians in the field of international relations and similar areas have tried to propose models or other tools of calculating the national capabilities of countries. This is because power is the center and foundation of international relations. 3 In 105F

continue, we will investigate the single-variable and multi-variable approaches for evaluation of power of countries.

Single Variable and Multi Variable (Integrated) Approaches to Measure National Power: Specialists and experts of different fields have attempted to invent methods with single variable and or multi variables to determine the countries' situation in the global system and also to compare them with each other. All of them have ranked and compared the countries from a multi or limited variable perspective but it has never reflected the countries complete and extensive power. 4 Despite this, many efforts are made to measure the national power of 106F

1-Muir. op.cit ,p.148 2 -Frankel. op.cit , p.178 3-Tellis. et al. op. cit , p.25 4 -Hafeznia. 2006, op.cit ,p.284

countries in the form of single or multi variable pattern. In continue, we will investigate the single-variable and multi-variable approaches for evaluation of power of countries. A) Single Variable Approaches to Measure National Power: In the evaluation of national power some scientists, after assessing the effect of different indexes have emphasized on one index for measuring national power and national power and have measure other countries based on that. Military expenditure ,the size of aemed forces and Gross National Product are frequently used as indicators of national power in empirical studies 1.In general one variable approaches to evaluating national power can be 107 F

divided into two groups: the first group is specialists who recognize military indexes as symbols of power. Experts like Inis Claude and Karl Deutsch who emphasized on military forces; Norman Alcock on military costs and George Modelski and William Thompson on measuring the navy as an important index to measure national power. 2 The second group is 108F

experts who state that economical factors are more important and have recognized them as standards on which national power can be measured. Among these experts we can name Kingsley Davis, the demographer, specialized in political sciences that recognized national income as the most important factor in determining power. 3 Also Joshua Goldstein who 109F

recognized Gross National Production as the most important single variable factor in national power. 4 Table 6. shows different specialists and the type of indexes used by them. 10F

Table 6 : Single Variable Approaches to Evaluating National Power

1-Jeffry. op.cit.p.55 2-Tellis,& Others. op.cit.p.33 3-Ibid 4-Joshua.s. Goldstein, International Relations. New York, Longman, 1999,p.59

Source: zarghani:2009,p.147

The most important criticism that can be accepted about single variable approaches are that these types of single variables have a limited outlook towards national power and cannot express the real national power of states and their real situation in the global geopolitical system. In other words, national power has different economical, political, military, social, Territorial and … perspectives; therefore any index or model which only measures one certain aspect for example the military aspect or military power or has even measured them from one aspect is not realistic and can't be a suitable standard to measure national power. For example, even if oil income has increased the gross national production in countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela there is no relationship between this index and other indexes of national power. Based on this we cannot measure the national power of countries by only evaluating this variable. 1 1F

1-M.kelly.Kadera, Measuring National Power, International Interactions, Taylor &Francis,2004, p.226

The existence of these problems has led many scholars to criticize these factors. Among these scholars, one can mention Morgentau who had warned against using single-variable factors for evaluation of national power and had called it unscientific. On the other hand, due to weaknesses of single-variable factors in evaluation of different aspects of capabilities, we nowadays witness that combined factors have replaced single-variable factors in evaluation of different aspects of development and capabilities of countries. Therefore, in recent years, international and regional economic and social organizations such as UNESCO, WORLD BANK, IMF, and etc. emphasize on avoiding single-variable factors such as gross national income and using combined factors such as human development in calculation of development and evaluation of different aspects of countries’ power. 1 In sum, single-variables not only are not suitable for evaluation of national power 12F

of countries, but scholars are seriously doubtful about using them for calculating a particular aspect of capabilities such as economic power of countries.

B) Multi Variable (Integrated) Approaches to Measure National Power: One of the other methods of measuring national power is by using multi variables and integrating them and designing a multi variable model. Designing integrated models (multi variable) by specialists is done in two different types: mathematical models and conceptual ones. In integrated mathematical models, first of all the variables are chosen and then by designing a mathematical formula the type of relationship for the variable integration is determined. Finally, based on this mathematical model the national power of countries is measured. For example, we can observe models planned by Clifford German and fucks 2 In 13F

the second type meaning conceptual models, a few variables are chosen by the designer as the most factors affecting national power and then the countries' power are placed in that group of variables based on their scores and therefore evaluated. In this method a certain mathematical formula, that shows the type of integration and relation is not presented. Among these models, which we can point out, are the models of Weyne ferris 2 and Richard 14F

Muir and Saul Cohen. 3 Some of these models mention below: 15F

2-Muir,op.cit , p.49 2-Tellis. op.cit, p.36 3-Cohen. op.cit, p.48

 Model of Klaus Knorr: The earliest and perhaps most influential multivariable measure was advanced in 1956 by Klaus Knorr in his classic work, The War Potential of Nations. Seeking to ascertain the ability of a country “to provide quantities of military manpower and supplies in the event of 1

war. .Knorr was drawn to a wide variety of factors that could be summarized by the 16F

categories of economic capacity, administrative competence, and motivation for war. Despite identifying numerous critical ingredients under each of these categories, Knorr did not provide any “model” to suggest how these factors might be combined. His work was nonetheless seminal in that it provided the foundations on which several theorists would later develop alternate solutions.

 Model of Clifford German : A complex nonlinear multivariable index that attempted to both identify discrete variables and specify their interrelationships came in 1960 with the work of Clifford German, who considered twenty-six relevant variables .German produced a world power index that took the following form:

where N is nuclear capability, L is land, P is population, I is the industrial base, and M is military size. 2 (German,1960,pp.138–140) Each of these variables was further broken down 17F

into a series of factors, each of which was scored by a variety of criteria pertinent to the factor concerned. After reviewing this model, Merritt and Zinnes concluded that “of all the power indexes considered, the German index is the most complex. It consists of a multitude of variables, both summational and syntality, a series of scoring schemes, and several instances in which judgments must be made.

3 18F

The positive and negative aspects of this model can be described as:

1 -Tellis. op.cit, p.27 2-Clifford. German, “A Tentative Evaluation of World Power,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 4 (1960) pp. 138–144. 3-Tellis. op.cit, p.26

1.

The most important positive feature of the model is its relative comprehensiveness because of the variety of the used variables. For instance, industrial ground is itself gained from combining variables of production of alloy, coal, oil and hydroelectricity.

2.

Avoiding the use the quality variables and using quantity variables is another positive feature of this model.

3.

Although this model is considered comprehensive due to the variety of variables, and although it is described by Merit and Ziner to be the most complicated model among all proposed models 1, it still ignores many of the aspects of power. For instance, 19F

cultural, social, economic variables are either ignored or have not received enough attention. 4.

The main problem with this model and almost all proposed models-which is out of the control of designers- is that these models were designed some decades ago and thus they do not accord with the new factors and variables that are nowadays considered the criteria of power for a country. Gross variables such as population, production of iron, production of coal and etc. used to be important indicatives of national power in the past, however, with regard to rapid changes in the present era, they are of less importance nowadays and now technological variables such as Nanotechnology, Bio-technology, information and communication and etc. are better able to indicate national power 2. 120F

 Model of Wilhelm Fucks: A similar nonlinear (but somewhat simpler) multivariable index was subsequently proposed by Wilhelm Fucks in1965. Fucks formula was 3: 12F

Fucks sought to derive national power from three sum mational variables—population size (p), energy production (z), and steel production (z1)—arranged in one of nine formulas for

1-Ibid. p.30 2 -zarghani. (2009),op.cit, p.155 3-Muir. op.cit, p.149

measuring national power (M), all of which were variants of one another and took the form of M = p2z, M = p3/2z, etc.1 12F

It seems the best criticism for this model has been stated by Richard Muir, the political geographician. He believes that the power of a country is more comprehensive to be gained by investigating the relationship between two variables of GDP and population.  Model of Muir: Richard Muir proposed this model for measure state power 2: 123F

National power= Area + population +steel production +Army +ICBM and polaris-type missiles Based on these model measured power of states and them classify to five level include: Superpower, Near- Superpower, Great powers, powers and Mini powers .Table 7 .shows ranking of countries:

Table 7:Ranking state power

1-Tellis. op.cit, p.27 2 -Muir. op.cit, p.149

Source:Muir,op. cit, p.14

 Model of Norman Alcock and Alan Newcombe: In contrast to the nonlinear measures of German and Fucks, Norman Alcock and Alan Newcombe in 1970 advanced a straightforward linear index of popular perceptions of national power that also utilized multiple variables. Using regression analyses on three variables, per capita GNP, population, and population density, they attempted to rank the relative power of scores of countries in the context of popular perceptions of national strength.  Model of David Singer: A similar linear index of capabilities, but one focusing on real national assets as opposed to the perception of those assets, was devised by J. David Singer’s Correlates of War project and published in 1972. population (understood both in terms of total and levels of urban population), industrial capacity (understood in terms of energy consumption and iron and steel production), and military capabilities (understood in terms of military expenditures and

force size) were added up to provide values for a particular country, which were then assessed as a percentage of the global total. 1 124F

 Model of Wayne Ferris: Another effort along similar lines was pursued by Wayne Ferris, who constructed an index in 1973 that sought to “provide scores on the capabilities of nearly all states in the system relative to nearly all other states. during the period 1850–1966. This effort focused on six variables—land area, total population, government revenue, defense expenditures, value of international trade, and the size of the armed forces—in an effort to produce a historical comparison of international power for literally scores of countries. 2 125F

Criticism of the models of Alcock and Newcombe, Singer, Feris: Each of the abovementioned scholars has tried to evaluate national power on the basis of a number of limited variables in a particular area. Alcock and Newcombe emphasized on three variables of GDP, population per capita, and population density; David Singer emphasized on variables of population, consumption of energy, production of alloy, cost and number of military forces; Vein Feris emphasized on expansion of the land, income of the government, costs of defense, volume of international trade, and size of armed forces; Richard Muir emphasized on expansion, population, production of alloy, number of personnel in the army, number of shuttles as the factors of national power. Like Fucks model and other models that consider a few limited variables the criteria for evaluation of the national power of countries and on the basis of such scores ranked countries national power, the criticism against this model is that national power of countries is much more comprehensive than being able to be evaluated on the basis of a number of limited variables and by emphasizing only one or two particular aspects such as population, military expenses, and production of alloy. In addition, since these models were proposed in early 70s and before that Alcock and Newcombe, 1970, David Singer, 1972, Vein Feris, 1973, Richard Muir, 1975), they emphasize on those variables that used to be the criteria for determining the national power of countries in that time. It is obvious that production of iron

1-Tellis. op.cit, p.28 2-Ibid. p.36

and number of personnel in the army were proper criteria for evaluation of national power of a country in the 70s. However, with regard to rapid scientific and technological advances in the world and the importance of new industries and technologies, the variables related to such areas as Nano-technology, Bio-technology, and communication and information technology are now of greater importance in evaluation of national power of countries. Indeed, this does not mean that such variables as expansion of the country, population, industrial productions, which were important in the past, are no longer considered valuable in contributing to power of a country. 1 126F

 Model of Ray Cline: among the more widely recognized indexes of national power was the one devised by Ray Cline in 1975. This nonlinear, multivariable index attempted to integrate both capabilities and commitment to create a formula that would rank order the perceived power of states. Cline’s formula was:

where C is critical mass (including population and territory), E is economic capacity (including income plus energy plus nonfuel minerals plus manufacturing plus food plus trade), M is military capacity (including the strategic balance plus combat capabilities plus a bonus for effort), S is the national strategy coefficient, and W is national will (including the level of national integration, the strength of leadership, and the relevance of strategy to the national interest). The formula won a wide readership both in academia and within the defense community, and some variants of it were used to develop the U.S. Army’s estimates of long-range trends in the international system.

2 127F

The positive and negative aspects of this formula can be described as: 1. Using different variables and more importantly, choosing the variables from different fields of nature, economy, politics, military, society and etc. are considered the most important strength of this model.

1-Zarghani. (2009),op.cit, p.159 2-Tellis. op.cit, p.28

2. The existence of quality variables such as national integrity, leadership capability, strategic balance, etc. in the model without proposing a solution for changing them into quantity ones is considered the most important weakness of this model. 3. Just like the majority of the models, this model has just emphasized on positive variables and has ignored negative variables. This is considered a weakness because principally national power is the combination and mathematical sum of positive and negative points of the elements and foundations of a country. 1 128F

 Model of Saul, b.Cohen: Saul,b.Cohen, Based on ten factors of investment, agricultural production, industrial production, export, developmental research, number of scientists, number of engineers, reduction of foreign debts, scientific exchange, and number of pattern inventions, designed a pattern to evaluate national power of countries. 2 129F

In comparison to previous models, cohen’s model is superior in regard to variety of the used variables, particularly such modern variables as number of discoveries, developmental researches, number of scientists, etc. Moreover, it has more exact methods of calculation in comparison to previous models. However, in regard to the limited number of variables (10 variables) it can be said that cohen’s model is far from being a comprehensive model of national power.

 Model of AshleY Tellis et.al: Another model was also proposed by Ashli Telis et al in 2000. In this model, they considered three factors of national resources, national performance, and military capability influential in creating national power. Each factor itself was divided into other factors and

1 -Zarghani. 2009, op.cit, p.157 2 -Cohen, op.cit, p.43

each factor constituted various variables. On this basis, they designed the model of national power as follows: 1 130F

Figure 9: A Revised View of National Power

source:Telis,et al. op.cit, p.46

This model is superior to others due tits numerous variables and attention to selecting variables from all realms of power (economic, political, natural, military, cultural, social, etc). However, there are three criticisms against it: 1. In spite of having numerous new variables, this model has not provided a method to know how they should be combined and evaluated. 2. Designers of the model claim that it has been designed to evaluate the national power of goal countries (the countries that will probably be competitors of the US in the future). Therefore, the variables which were used just had information for those certain countries. Therefore, there is not universal data for the majority of the variables used in the model and so using this model it is not possible to evaluate and compare national power of all countries of the world. This can be a bug shortcoming in this model. In more exact words, since the most important aim behind designing the model of evaluation of national power is comparison of the power of almost all countries of the world and drawing the structure of universal geopolitical system, and

1-Telis. et al. op.cit, p.46

since this model can only compare a few number of countries, it cannot be a comprehensible model for evaluating national power of countries. 3. The importance of the variables in regard to one another is not clear. In fact, since no model has been proposed, all variables have equal value. 1 13F

Table 8, shows the most important conceptual integrated models (without presenting the mathematical formula): Table 8: Number and Type of Variables Used in Conceptual Integrated Models

Source: zarghani:2009,op. cit, p.148

1-Zarghani. 2008, op.cit, p.157

General Criticism and Evaluation of models: Each of the abovementioned models were criticized and analyzed in separation. However, from a general point of view, the traditional approaches and the current models of national power have some forms: A. These three concerns acquire special resonance given the fact that countries like the Soviet Union and Iraq, which were classified as relatively significant powers by some aggregate indicators of capability, ultimately either collapsed through internal enervation or proved to be utterly ineffectual when their capabilities were put to the test in war. Both these examples suggest that appreciating the true basis of national power may require not merely a meticulous detailing of tangible military assets such as force inventories and logistics capabilities, but also an assessment of other intangible elements like training, doctrine, leadership, experience, readiness, and integrative skill. 1 132F

B. Current criteria for evaluating power mainly emphasize the variables that left a major effect on the national power of countries in a particular time period. For instance, they emphasize such variables as production of iron and alloy, amount of consumed energy, the amount of food, and etc. These factors were considered significant in previous decades and in the industrial period. Therefore, these models lack strategic variables which accord with contemporary era. For example, the variables of Nanotechnology, environmental technology, communication and information technology, which are all of great importance in the 21st century, can rarely be seen in these models. Therefore, the abovementioned models have the necessary, although insufficient, variables. 2 13F

C. The most traditional approaches of the sort identified above sought to rank order the status of countries in terms of their capacity for war. The objective in most cases, thus, consisted of charting the international warrant of precedence, or the hierarchy of capabilities in the international system, based on the premise that the capacity for

1-Ibid, p.6 2-Zarghani. (2009), op. cit , p.155

war was what ultimately distinguished the power of one country from another. 1 134F

Meanwhile, regarding the recent changes in the world, among the five dimensions

of power, economic factors are in the first position and the military factors are in the last position. Moreover, the nature of war itself has undergone major changes and the military capabilities and variables of previous decades (such as number of personnel in the army) can no longer be considered a proper criterion for evaluation of military capabilities of a country. 2 135F

D. Traditional approaches of evaluation of power, while focusing on the ranking of countries, instead of presenting a deep image, present a wide image that does not include the global distribution of capabilities and cannot provide an exact investigation along with details for any country. E. although it seems that evaluation and calculation of quality and invisible factors affecting national power is still a difficult and impossible task, all models under investigation have failed to change the quality factors to quantity factors and then considering them in the evaluation of national power of countries. It should be noted that these factors, although it is not possible to be evaluated, are of great importance F. most of the indices used in the traditional indexes of power are invariably gross indices. Even measures of military capability largely consist of gross measures like the size of inventory or the numbers of specific pieces of equipment. Both the assets counted and the resources identified as salient are clearly those that acquired significance in the industrial age, when variables like the level of steel production, the extent of energy consumed, and the size of food stocks mattered much more than they had before.

in brief, The most important criticisms that are about aforesaid models include: 1- Limited number of variables used in the models

1-Tellis. et al. op. cit , p.31 2-Zarghani. (2009), op. cit , p.157

2- Lack of stability in the model based on variable variety and emphasizing on one certain power aspect 3- Lack of proportion in the used variables with the strategically conformed variables in the current time 4- The effect of opinions and personal viewpoints of the designer on the model 5- Using some qualitative variables without presenting methods to use them quantitively 6- Emphasis in using variables with positive role in power and not paying attention to variables with a negative role 7- Lack of global data about variable and states

The suggested model for Measurement of national power: Based on the findings obtained by evaluating previous national power measurement models, in this research, a new model is presented and efforts have been done for it not to have the faults above. With regard to the results gained from investigation of models of evaluation of national power, at least five problems can be attributed to these models: 1. Lack of comprehensibility of the model in regard to number and variety of the variables 2. The effect of personal viewpoints and tendencies of the designer on the model of evaluation of national power and not using the opinions of the scholars of other fields and majors particularly in regard to the fact that national power is a multidimensional notion and has different economic, political, social, military and other aspects. Thus understanding the importance and role of each of these factors of national power requires a special skill. 3. Using some quality variables without presenting the method of changing them into quantity ones. 4. Emphasizing the use of those variables that have positive performance and disregarding the variables that have a negative performance.

5. Lack of compatibility between the variables used in the models and the realities of the present era.

In order to resolve these problems, the following issues need to be considered in the design of a new model: 1-Using an almost comprehensive conceptual model of national power: National power has different aspects such as political, economic, military, cultural, and social. Thus, any model of evaluation of national power must include the different dimensions of national power. Reviewing the previous models, one can realize that except one or two models, others lacked the necessary comprehensiveness. On this basis, in order to evaluate national power, this research uses Hafiznia’s model because of using different variables in the framework of nine factors and thus its comprehensiveness in comparison to previous models. Figure 10 : Model with nine factors of national power

Source: Zarghani,2007,p.148

2-Emphasis on using the viewpoints of scholars in collecting the variables of each factor referring to two main resources: As it can be seen in the above model, nine main factors were predicted in the model of evaluation of national power. The next step was to determine the variables and the number of variables in each factor. In collecting the variables of each factor, two main resources were considered so to take advantage of the opinions of other experts as well as to prevent the interference of the interests of the designer in the choice of variables. These two sources were: 1) Theories by those experts and professional who have introduced the variables and factors forming national power. In this relation, 28 theories by different scholars were investigated. Each of these scholars introduced a number of the variables as the most important factors affecting national power. In other words, the most important factors of national power were investigated. Using these theories, the most important variables affecting national power were chosen. 2) Referring to global databanks The second source used for collecting the data affecting national power were global databanks such as World Bank, UNESCO, IMF as well as referring to related websites. This was done with two objectives: The first objective was to recognize the new variables and factors which are used in these organizations for evaluation of different capabilities of countries in economic, political, social, and other aspects. The second objective was to identify the variables for which global data is available. It should be mentioned that since the objective of this study is designing a model for evaluation of national power of different countries, those variables must be emphasized that there is universal data available for them. Therefore, the series of variables that were collected using the opinions of scholars and global databanks were investigated in regard to the existence of universal data and thus some variables and factors were ignored. 3-Avoiding a single-dimensional view at national power and emphasis on using the opinion of different experts by using Delphi method:

Another major problem with most of previous models of evaluation of national power was the single-dimensional view towards national power arising from the particular point of view of the designer of the model. For instance, if the designer belonged to the military, the major part of the basics and sources of national power were allocated to military factors and other factors were ignored or were not given enough attention. This might also be true of an economist, a sociologist, or a geographician. However, the variables affecting national power belong to different fields such as land, economy, society, culture, science, military, etc. and thus they all must be included when evaluating national power. Ignoring any of these dimensions will eventually cause shortcomings in the final outcome. Therefore, in order to avoid a single-dimensional view towards national power and in order to regard all different dimensions of national power, on one hand, and to prevent the interference of a particular point of view of the designer in the final model, on the other hand, this study used the Delphi method and reference to opinions of different scholars in its selection of the main variables of each factor as well as in identification of the multiple factor of each factor and variable. The identification of the variables affecting national power in the economic area is definitely much more scientific than by scientists of other fields. This is also true about other variables such as military, geographical, and etc. 4-Using quantative variables or changing quality variables to quantity ones: Another problem with previous models was using quality variables without proposing a method for changing them into quantity ones. Since the objective of this research is designing a model for evaluation of national power of countries, using incalculable quality variables is an important obstacle towards achieving such an objective. Therefore, it has been attempted to transform quality variables into operational and calculable factors as much as possible. For instance, in order to evaluate the amount of political stability, number of coup d’états and in order to evaluate the government’s dependence on people’s power, the elected or selected authorities are to be considered. Otherwise, because of the emphasis on the use of quantity variables, quality variables are not used in the model. 5-Using the variables that have combined positive and negative performance: National power is the combination and mathematical sum of the positive and negative aspects of the elements and foundations of a country. It is active and is comprehensible in

relation to other nations and countries. On this basis, this study uses variables with positive and negative performance (in national power) in order to design a model for evaluation of national power. The objective behind this has been to combine the causes of power and weakness and to evaluate national power by mathematical sum of the positive and negative aspects of their performance. Therefore, in each of the nine factors, there are a number of variables with negative performance in national power. It should be mentioned that the positive and negative performance of a variable in national power is considered relative in some variables. In exact words, some factors and variables such as population size might have positive performance in one country and negative performance in another one. For instance, the amounts of debts of a country cannot always be regarded as a negative factor as this debt and international financial resources in one country might be spent in commercial and production areas and thus bring a country much more benefits. In regard to another country, this loan might have been spent on service and consumption areas and thus does not bring any financial benefit for that country. 6-Using strategic variables that are compatible with present age: In any period of time and in accordance with conditions of time, a number of factors and variables which form national power, have strategic value and thus perform a vital role in evaluating the power of countries. For instance, in the industrial period, such variables as production of iron and alloy, production and consumption of energy, and etc. all played significant roles in the power of a country. However, in the present era (in the postindustrial period) these variables do not have their previous importance and thus the variables of such areas as biotechnology, nano-technology, communication and information technology have a significant role in evaluation of countries’ power. On this basis, this study uses the variables of the previous models while referring to different sources of modern variables that have strategic value in the contemporary era. For instance, digital access is one of these variables which can clearly show the capabilities of countries in the field of communication and information technology. 7-choosing the variables that have universal data The objective behind designing a model for evaluation of national power is evaluation of the power of countries and drawing the geopolitical structure of the universe. This cannot be

achieved unless there is information and data for the selected variables of almost all countries of the world. In fact, attempts have been made to collect the data and information from an international and reliable source.

Chapter Five: Research Methodology and Stages of Model Presentation:

Evaluating and measuring countries' national power to determine the country's status in the global geo-political system and comparing countries' powers has always been one of the main concerns of political geographers, scientists of political science and international relations. From this aspect, many specialists attempted many efforts to evaluate national power by means of creating methods and single variable and multi-variable models, whereas all of them have ranked many countries from a multi-variable or limited aspect but it has never reflected the countries extensive and complete power. In this research, based on the assessment of previous models for the evaluation of national power, a new model is presented to measure national power. The details of the research methodology are explained in the 13 stages: 1- Explaining and criticizing Theoretical Foundations and Statements Related to Factors and Variables: In this stage, theoretical topics like power definitions, national power, foundations and power sources and methods to measure power were criticizited and

evaluated. The

information in this stage was obtained from the library study methods and usage of books, magazines, quarterly periodicals and the internet. 2- Choosing a theoretical Model as the Main Foundation for the model design: In this stage, 28 theoretical models, which were about foundations and sources of national power and were presented by national and international specialists considered and evaluated.Then The theoretical model, presented by Hafeznia,which was based on a number and variety of variables, paying attention to different aspects of national power, emphasis on negative and positive role of variables ,emphasis on new aspects of power was selected as the foundation of designing a model for measurement of national power. Hafeznia in his theoretical model emphasizes on nine factors as the main sources of national power of the states (includes: Economical, territorial, political, scientific and technological, social, cultural, military, astro-space and trans-national factors. 1 136F

3- Gathering Variables and Indexes Effective on National Power: In this stage, a total of 280 variables and indexes effective on national power were gathered by referring to the four resources below: a) Referring to 28 theories about foundations and elements of national power b) Referring to data banks of institutions and international institutions like the World Bank, Unesco, Military Balance and … c) Referring to internet sites related to the topic d) Using the suggestions of different experts and specialists by interview and survey

4- Sifting the Variables: Based on the main purpose of the research namely designing a model to measure national power of countries, the gathered variables were measured and sifted based on the three standards below: - Standard and Global Data for them - Quantitivity of variables or potential to change them to quantities 1-Hafeznia. 2006,p.141

- Availability of variables Based on this from 280 variables 130 variables were omitted. The 150 remaining variables were categorized in the form of theoretical model nine factors: Economical, political, military, social and so

5-Evaluating and Determining the Importance (measuring variables) based on the Delphi Method: In this stage based on the Delphi method and to obtain the opinions of experts about the effect of variables and indexes on national power a survey was prepared based on the chosen variables (150 remaining variables). The survey was a closed survey with a multiple answer score in which, each of the nine factors affecting national power were presented separately and the experts taking the survey were asked to choose from among the answers of: very little, little, average, a lot and very much. In the distribution of the survey, many efforts were done so that there would be proportion between the types of questions of each factor with the expertise of the specialists. For example, only professors of political geography, political sciences and international relations answered questions related to political factors.

6-Statistical Evaluation of the Survey Results: For a statistical evaluation of the survey results, also to categorize the variables, the (SPSS) and (Sas) statistical software's were used. In addition, to evaluate the data the descriptive and comprehensive statistical methods were used. In the comprehensive statistics, the three methods below were used: 1) Using the alpha Crone Bach co-efficient to evaluate the reliability of the research survey 1 137 F

2) Testing the validity of the questions by emphasizing on Factor Analysis 3) Using the Factor Analysis method to choose superior variables

1 -Alireza. Neghaban, Management of Methodology by SPSS,Tehran, Gahd of University press, 2003, p.18

7- Choosing Superior Variables by Using the Factor Analysis Method: Because of the extensive research and large number of variables and effective indexes on national power in the form of nine factors and because of the positive usage of the experts' suggestions who answered this survey, we used the Factor Analysis method to categorize and choose superior variables. In this method, the relations between a large number of variables are measured evaluated by a few random, unobservable qualities which are called factors and also co-variance 1.From among 150 variables, 87 variables were chosen based on 138F

data obtained from the Factor Analysis method in which they had the most effect on national power. The 87 variables were considered as the final variables used in the national power measurement model. 8- Designing the First Model Based on the Matrix Method: The chosen variables (by the Factor analysis method), were the foundations for designing the national power measurement model. The way to measure national power was by using the matrix method. In this method, two-dimensional charts were used. In one dimension were the names of the countries and in the other charts containing names of indexes and variables. Then, related amounts were placed in the chart and finally the numbers were added to each other by algebra and the amount of national power for each state was determined 2 . 139F

9- Entering gathered data of states in the Matrix Chart: The gathered data about 140 countries or states and 87 variables was entered in the matrix. The information about 140 countries was placed in the rows and the information related to the 87 variables in the columns. In order to calculate the countries' scores faster and more precisely, the matrix was drawn in a computer by using the Excel software and the information about variables and countries was placed in nine separate boxes in the matrix. About the 87 variables and 140 countries, a chart with 12000 boxes was created and 12000 data was recorded in it.

1 -Richard. Janston, statistical analysys, Transled by Hosienali Niromand, Mashhad University,1999, p.54 2 - Hafeznia. (2006) ,op.cit , P.301

10- Changing Variable Amounts to Scores: One of the most important and at the same time most difficult stages in designing the national power measurement model, was the proportioning and in other words standardizing of scoring methods to variables and indexes. Because the components and variables were various and were placed in different fields and areas, accessing the quantitative counter balancing pattern and determining the amounts and quantitative co-efficient for them was very hard. Measuring all the power which is a product of all factors and various variables is in need of changing each of the variables to equal sizes and amounts so that there will be a chance for their integration 1 . If by any chance there is a small mistake in this stage, it can 140F

cause an unrealistic calculation and illogical increase or decrease of the countries' scores and in the end can cause big problems in comparing the national power of countries. In order to give scores to the variables and indexes, in this research the four different methods below were used: a) The method of Proportional Percentage: In this method the score of each country is based on it's share in the overall amount of variables. For example, total Nano technological papers of the world published in the journals with ISI index at 2005 have been :41665 and the number of such paper for Iran have been:53.so the proportional Percentage of iran has been equal to:0/127 b) Morris's Index method The second method is a method that is called the Index method in this research and it is derived from the World Bank's methods in creating indexes like human development index. The basis of this method is that in order to determine an index from a variable, we measure it's maximum and minimum amount and then based on each number related to each country and the below formula, we calculate to number related to that variable by an index:

1-Ibid. p. 284

c) Intentional Method: In this method, which is about different variables and the average of that variable, a number is considered as the base and than the obtained number of countries about each variable is measured based on that. For example, about the per capita income of countries, for every $1000 of per capita income a positive score is considered and then the per capita income of countries is scored based on that. d) Using the Indexes own numbers as a score: The fourth method is usually used with indexes which have been used in the model. Because indexes like human development and digital availability are the achievements gained by experts throughout the years, therefore it seems as if it is better that each country's number about each index, be considered as that country's score for that index. So, by emphasizing on the efforts in creating that index, we will prevent and unrealistic calculations about the score. For example, the number related to Iran about human development is 0.732; in this method 0.732 is considered as the score for Iran.

11- Designing a New Matrix Based on Variable Scores: After the amounts relating to variables and indexes are changed to scores by using the four previous methods, a new matrix is designed where scores of variables replace numbers of variables. Like the previous chart, this chart is also drawn in the computer by using the Excel software and the scores of 140 countries about 87 variables are recorded in it.

12- The algebraic addition of positive and negative scores of variables in each factor and determining the total amount of scores in each factor: By calculating the scores according to algebraic ways related to variables of each factor, the final scores of countries about each factor are determined. For example, by consideration of positive or negative role of variable in calculating (algebraic) the scores of the 12 economical variable indexes, the total scores of all countries in the economical factor is determined:

Economical factor score = Gross national production score + the score of attracting foreign investment + score of all financial sources – score of negative trade rate and … 13- calculating

the Nine factor Scores and Determining the National Power of

Countries: After determining the score of each country about each of the nine indexes, the total score of countries in the nine factor is calculated, based on the simple lineal model below which is based on the algebraic addition of the nine factor. Therefore, the number obtained by adding the nine factor shows the amount of the national power of countries. Based on this number we can construct a power structure for the world and compare the national power of countries in each of the factor separately based on the total score of the nine factor (national power). Table 9 : Simple Lineal Model to Measuring National Power:

Source:Zarghani,2009.p.207

Chapter Six: Measuring National Power of countries

This chapter investigated the power of countries (140 countries) in regard to the new designed model and in the frame of nine factor. This factors Includes :scientific, economic, social, Territory , cultural, political ,Trans-national, Astro-space and military. The methodology consists of expressing the variables of each factor using the analysis method. Then, on the basis of the sum of scores of variables of each factor, power of countries in that particular factor, for instance, economic factor, will be determined and then the countries will be ranked ..In addition, ten superior countries in each factor will be shown using figured and maps. At the end, the scores of different countries in the world in the nine factors (of national power) will be compared and the structure of power in the world will be drawn. Ten top countries in regard to national power have been shown in the map. Measuring and Ranking Countries Based on the Nine factor: In this section the study's results are measured based on the national power measurement model about each factor:

1- Ranking national Power Based on Scientific and Technological factorIndexes: In the scientific and technological index, 12 variables were chosen by the Factor Analysis method. Choosing these variables are based on the answered survey just like the other factor which were chosen by the Factor Analysis method. It means that according to the experts answering the survey, from among the 22 variables presented in the scientific index, 12 variables have the most effect on the national power of countries. These 12 variables are: Table 10: variables of Scientific and Technological factor:

Source:Zarghani,2009.p.210

Based on the obtained scores in Scientific and Technological factor has been shown in the table 11, United States of America (U.S.A) has the number one rank in the world with a score of 100 and the next ranks, respectively are: Japan, Germany, United kingdom, Chaina, France, Russia, Canada, South Korea, Belgium. Like most of the factors the difference between the countries in first and second ranks are a lot and approximately 2 times more

Table 11:Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.241

Map 1 : Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor

2- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on Economical factor: The chosen variables, which are based on the Factor Analysis method in the 11 economical factor are shown in the table below: Table 12: variables of Economical factor:

Source:Zarghani,2007.p.243

In the economical factor as has been shown in table 12 ,the U.S.A has the highest score (100) and China, Japan, , Germany, England, Canada, France, Australia, Russia and Italy are the next top countries ranking 2 to 10. In the economical factor, four variables have negative effect (degree of unemployment, share of imported foods from the total amount of foods, negative trade rate and the liberalized economical index).table 13,shows the top ten countries in the economical factor. Table 13 :Top ten powers in the Economical factor

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.212

Map 2: Top ten powers in the Economical factor

3- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Social factor: The social index consists of 11 variables, which have been chosen from among 23 variables by using the Factor Analysis method .From among the final chosen variables, three variables have negative impact. This 11 variables shown in table 14: Table 14: variables of Social factor:

Source:Zarghani,2007.p.244

In the social factor as has been shown in table 15, USA with 100 score has the first rank and the next ranks, respectively are: China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Canada, Belgium and Australia. Table 15:Top ten powers in the Social factor

Source: Zarghani , 2009.p.21

Map 3: Top ten powers in the Social factor

4- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Territorial factor: The territorial factor consists of 11 variables which, based on the experts who answered the survey had the most effect on national power and were chosen based on the Factor Analysis method. This variables shown in table 16: Table 16: variables of Territorial factor

Source: Zarghani, 2007.p.247

In the Territorial factor as has been shown in table 17, the U.S stands in the highest position with a score of 100. Countries like Russia ,Canada , Australia, china, Brazil, Kazakhstan ,India ,Norway and iran are the countries ranking two to nine Table 17:Top ten powers in the Territorial factor

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.214

Map 4: Top ten powers in the Territorial factor

5- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Cultural factor: As it is shown in the below, the cultural factor consists of 10 variables. In this index, two variables have a negative role. This variables shown in table 18 : Table 18: variables of Cultural factor:

Source: Zarghani, 2007.p.250

In the cultural factor ranking the powers is in such a way that the U.S stands at the highest position with a score of 100 and countries like England, France, Spain, Japan,

Germany, Italy, China ,Russia and Sweden are the next top ten countries. The score difference between the first country and the next top ten countries is very small and this exists in the countries other countries, opposed to indexes like military and Astro-space factors in which the difference was very much. In addition, the difference between the top ten countries and the rest of the countries was a lot. About the cultural factor, first of all there isn’t a big difference between the first country and the next top tan countries and second of all the decrease in the score (to the lowest rank) has a moderate decreasing pace. Table 19, shows the top ten countries according to cultural factor: Table 19:Top ten powers in the Cultural factor

Map 5: Top ten powers in the Cultural factor

6- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Political-Governmental factor: The political-governmental factor consists of 10 variables , which have been chosen from among 14 variables by using the Factor Analysis method. This variables shows in table 20. Table 20: variables of the Political factor

Source: Zarghani, 2007.p.253 In the political factor, as has been shown in table opposed to the rest of the factors the U.S is not only in the first rank, but does not stand in any of the top ten ranks. In the political factor Finland is in the first position with a score of 100 and Denmark, Swedes, Norway, Switzerland ، Netherlands, Australia, Austria ,New Zealand and United Kingdom

are

respectively in the next top ten positions .table 21, shows top ten countries in the political factor. Table 21:Top ten powers in the Political factor

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.214

Map 6: Top ten powers in the the Political factor

7- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Trans-National factor: The Trans-National factor has 10 variables. The variables of Trans-National factor are various, to a point where they are extended throughout a large scale of topics, from

political-trading to sports. The method used to score Trans-National factor is mainly based on the percentage share method . table 22, shows chosen variables in the Trans-National. Table 22: variables of the Trans-National factor:

Source: Zarghani, 2007.p.253

As it is shown in table 23, in this factor, the U.S stands in the first position with a score of 100 and China, France,UK, Russia, Germany, Japan,Canada ,Italy and Spain stand in the positions ranking 2 to 10. Table 23:Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor

Source: Zarghani, 2007.p.25

Map 7: Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor

8- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Astro-space factor In general, the Astro-space factor has 4 variables. Because of the limited number of Astro space variables, there is no need to use the Factor Analysis method. This variables shows in table 24. Table 24: variables of the Astro-space factor:

In the Astro-space factor, only 39 countries have the capability and the other 100 countries have not scored any point in this factor. Among these 39 countries as it has been shown in

table 25,United State has the highest rank with a score of 100. After USA, Russia , Japan ,China , France, uk, India, Canada , Brazil and Germany stand in the next positions. As we can tell by the scores, the difference in Astro space capability and in other words Astro space outbreak is very big between the first country and the other countries. The number of satellites that the U.S has is two times as much as all the satellites of the other countries put together.table 24, shows the top ten countries in the Astro space factor: Table 25:Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor

Map 8: Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor

9- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Military factor: In the Military factor, eight variables were chosen by using the Factor Analysis method. Table 26, shows the names of the chosen variables Table 26: variables of the Military factor

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.222

According to this factor as has been shown in table 27 ,USA has the first position in the world. In the next position, respectively are Russia, China, UK, France, Germany, India, Turkey, Japan, South Korea. Table 27:Top ten powers in the Military factor

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.225

Map 9: Top ten powers in the Military factor

Calculating the Total Scores of Countries and Drawing the Global Power Structure: After the countries' scores were determined about the nine factors, with algebraic addition, the scores of the nine factors are considered as the final scores of states which show the national power of the countries. According to these outcomes a global geo-political structure can be drawn. In addition ,the geo-political structure can be drawn in each of the geographical and geo-political regions. Drawing the global and Territorial power structure can be based on one or a few factors. For example, based on the economical factor, we can recognize the superior economical powers in the world. . In addition, we can rank the geopolitical effect of the states in the world or in the region. According to this method and as has been shown in Figure.11 the first power of the world for the year 2005, is united state with 882 score ,in the next position of the global power ,respectively belong to: China(462), Russia (458), United kingdom(440), Japan (424), Germany(402), France(391), Canada(365), Australia(324) and Spain(319). Figure 11: Top ten powers in the all factors (National Power)

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.242

Map 10: The first ten Global power

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.249

As it has been said, after determining the countries' scores in the factors (amount of national power), a global power structure can be drawn out. Based on this, as shown in Fig.12 ,the power level of countries is determined and based on that the global geo-political structure is drawn. ) It must be said that the power levels are done in two ways: polar (with a vertical structure) and systematically.In this research the power levels are determined and

based on the countries' scores(500 to 1000, 400 to 500 and …),the global power structure can be drawn out. Figure.12 :Global Geopolitical structure(power levels based on the scale of National Power)

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.249

According to the Fig, 4 of global geopolitical structure, there are five levels of the powers as under: First level: with ranging score of 500-1000. only United State of America with 882 score is the first global power.

Second level: with ranging score of 400-500, including: China ,Russia, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France. Third level: with ranging score of 200-400, including :Canada, Spain, Italy, India, Brazil, South Korea, ,Sweden ,Iran , Switzerland and … Fourth level: with ranging score of 100-200, including :Ukraine, Thailand , Malaysia, Romania, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Egypt and… Fifth level: with ranging score of under 100, including :Syria, Iraq ,Qatar , Turkmenistan ,Niger, Chad and …

Conclusion: measuring national power of the states to determine the country's status in the global geopolitical structure and comparing countries' powers has always been one of the main concerns of political geographers, scientists of political science and international relations. In this research, based on criticizing and assessment of previous models for the evaluation of national power, a new model is being presented to measure national power of the states.; it is much better than previous models based on working method, number and integration of indexes and variables affecting national power. We can even state that the designing of such a model and at a such an extensive scale, has been done for the first time. The advantages of this model compared to the previous ones are: 1- Paying attention to all different aspects of power in the form of these nine components: economical, political, military, trans-national, Astro-space, Territorial, social, scientific and technological and cultural, whereas the previous models had only attempted to measure power in one or a few limited aspects. 2- The number and variety of the variables used in the model; in this model approximately 90 variables in different aspects were used 3- Using the Delphi method and referring to suggestions made by experts to measure the role and importance of variables on national power 4- Drawing the global power structure based on the national power of the countries and determining countries position and situation in the world power system 5- The possibility of comparing countries' powers in the geographical region and drawing a regional geopolitical structure and evaluate the position and situation of the states in the regional power systems 6-the model is flexible and can develop and improve to come better.Also it has capability for measurement of national power of the states annually

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