Descripción: Material Requirements Planning in a Demand-Driven World...
Material Requirements Planning in a Demand-Driven World Carol A. Ptak, CFPIM, CIRM Chad Smith
Carol Ptak Carol Ptak is the co-author of the third edition of Orlicky’s Material Requirements Planning and a partner at the Demand Driven Institute. Previously, Carol was at Pacific Lutheran University as Visiting Professor and Distinguished Executive in Residence after years of executive management experience at PeopleSoft and IBM Corporation. Ptak served as the vice president and global industry executive for manufacturing and distribution industries at PeopleSoft. Additionally, Carol is a past President and CEO of the American Production and Inventory Control Society (APICS).
Chad Smith Chad Smith is the co-author of the third edition of Orlicky’s Material Requirements Planning and a partner at the Demand Driven Institute. Chad is also the cofounder and Managing Partner of Constraints Management Group, a services and technology company specializing in demand driven manufacturing, materials, and project management systems for midrange and large manufacturers.
1975: The First Significant Explanation of MRP Joe Orlicky
“As this book goes into print, there are some 700 manufacturing companies or plants that have implemented, or are committed to implementing, MRP systems. Material requirements planning has become a new way of life in production and inventory management, displacing older methods in general and statistical inventory control in particular. I, for one, have no doubt whatever that it will be the way of life in the future.”
4
The Evolution of Inventory Planning 1920’s: Inventory Mgmt
1961: BOMP 1965: MRP
2011 – Demand Driven MRP 1972: Closed-Loop MRP (DDMRP) 1980: MRPII 1990: ERP
1996: APS 5
What is Demand Driven MRP? A multi-echelon materials and inventory planning and execution solution.
Demand Driven MRP (DDMRP)
Material Requirements Planning
Distribution Requirements Planning
(MRP)
(DRP)
Lean
Theory of Constraints
Innovation
6
What is the Problem we are Solving?
Today’s formal planning systems are fundamentally broken!
7
Modern Planning Systems Broken?! Companies Using Spreadsheets for Demand Management
63
Best-in-Class
71
Industry Average
84
Laggards
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aberdeen Group (Demand Management, November, 2009)
“
“
86% of respondents indicate that their management team has asked them to find opportunities to improve their companies supply chain planning processes and 71% of respondents have indicated the same for supply chain technology improvement. Aberdeen Group (Inventory Optimization Technology Strategies for the Chief Supply Chain Officer, December 2010)
8
Old Rules, Old Tools, New Pressures • Forecast error is on the rise • Volatility in supply and demand is increasing • Legacy planning tactics and tools are breaking down
9
The Planning Legacy Material Requirements Planning (MRP) ► Inside most modern ERP systems is MRP ► 79% of ERP Buyers implement MRP ► Conceived in the 1950’s ► Codified in the 1960’s ► Commercialized in the 1970’s and… ► …it hasn’t changed ► What has changed? ►
10
The “New Normal” Global sourcing and demand ► Shortened product life cycles ► Shortened customer tolerance time Worldwide there is more complex ► More product complexity and/or customization ►planning Pressure forand leanersupply inventoriesscenarios ►than Inaccurate everforecasts – the past is NOT an ► More product variety predictor for the future ► Long lead time parts/components ►
11
DDMRP Sneak Peek
The “New Normal” is Here to Stay
“
“
Forty-eight (48%) percent of companies indicate that increased supply chain complexity is a top pressure. Aberdeen Group (Enabling Supply Chain Visibility in the Cloud, November, 2010)
12
DDMRP Sneak Peek
The Typical Effects in the New Normal Frequent Shortages Leading to: • Unacceptable Inventory Performance • Unacceptable Service Level Performance • High Expedite Related Wastes Survey Results
www.beyondmrp.com
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Poor Inventory Performance
Poor Service Level
High Expedite Expense
At Least One Effect
13
Is Improvement even possible in the New Normal?
14
Inventory – Asset or Waste?
Asset Amount of inventory
Too Little = stock-outs, back orders, expedites & missed sales
Waste
Too much = cash, capacity and space tied up in inventory
15
Unacceptable Inventory Performance Unacceptable Service Level Performance High Expedite Related Wastes Oscillation
Asset
Too Little = stock-outs, back orders, expedites & missed sales
Waste
Too much = cash, capacity and space tied up in inventory
16
The Shift to Demand Driven • The problem is not going away • The world of “push and promote” is done • Companies and supply chains need to align their working capital with actual consumption • From “Push” to “Demand Driven”
17
The Five Components of DDMRP Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning Strategic Inventory Positioning
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
Modeling/Re-modeling the Environment
Plan
Execute
1
18
The Five Components of DDMRP Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
Plan
Execute
Modeling/Re-modeling the Modeling/Re-modeling theEnvironment Environment
19
The Five Components of DDMRP Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
Plan
Execute
Modeling/Re-modeling the Modeling/Re-modeling theEnvironment Environment
20
The Five Components of DDMRP Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
Plan
Execute
Modeling/Re-modeling the Modeling/Re-modeling theEnvironment Environment
21
The Five Components of DDMRP Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
Plan
Execute
Modeling/Re-modeling the Modeling/Re-modeling theEnvironment Environment
22
The Five Components of DDMRP Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
Plan Plan
Execute
Modeling/Re-modeling the Environment
23
The Five Components of DDMRP Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning Strategic Inventory Positioning
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
Modeling/Re-modeling the Environment
Plan
Execute Execute
1
24
Strategic Inventory Positioning
Where? (Position)
BEFORE How Much?
When?
(Quantity)
(Timing)
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
25
Answering “Where?”
6 Factors 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Customer Tolerance Time Market Potential Lead Time Supply and Demand Variability Inventory Flexibility and Matrix BOM Supply and Distribution Net Structure Critical Resource Considerations Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
26
Dampen variability Compress lead times Better leverage working capital Flow with Pull-Signals and Buffer Positions Identified Shaft Stock
Outside 12” Rough & Finish
13” Rough & Finish Shaft
Endo
Balance
Assemble
Finish
Test
Press 14” Rough & Finish Housing 15” Rough
15” Finish H Castings
S Castings
MTO Customer
Time Buffer Replenishment Buffer Pull Signals Paint
Pack
Ship Distributor Distributor
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
27
ASR LT + Matrix BOM ASR Lead Time = The longest unprotected sequence in the BOM
Matrix Bill of Material depicts relationships between ALL child and parent items 101
201
301
203
305
1H01
205
307P 304P
408P 409 403P 501P
20H1
203
204
304
305
304P 309P
401P 305
403P 501P
20Z1
301
403P 501P
303
408P 305 403P 417P
403P 501P
501P
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
28
DDMRP Part Types All parts NonStocked
Stocked
Replenished
Replenished Over-ride
Min-max
Lead Time Managed
Non-buffered
Typically ≈ 20% of Purchased Parts are strategic Typically ≈ 10% of Manufactured Parts are strategic Typically most Distributed Stock is strategic = non-strategic part
= strategically positioned and managed part Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
29
Failure to properly position inventory is a huge source of waste for most manufacturing and supply chain companies.
Position and Pull Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
30
Buffer Profiles and Levels Stock Out
ALERT!
Rebuild
+
Group Trait Inputs Lead Time Category Make, Buy or Distributed Variability Category Significant Order Multiples Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
OK
Too Much
Individual Part/SKU Inputs Average Daily Usage Appropriate Discrete Lead Time Ordering Policy (min, max, multiple) Location (distributed parts)
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
31
Buffer Profiles and Levels Part: 403P Lead Time: 21 days
Buffer Profile: B11MOQ
Green Zone
300
Yellow Zone
357
Red Zone Base
179
Red Zone Safety
54
233 ▼ R
403P
0%
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
590 ▼ Y
20%
40%
890 ▼ G
60%
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
80%
10 0 %
32
Dynamic Adjustments 100
900
90
800
80
700
70
600
60
500
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
Average Daily Usage
Available Stock Position
Dynamic Buffer Adjustment 1000
Recalculated Adjustments Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
33
Dynamic Adjustments
700
70
600
60
500
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
90
800
80
700
70
600
60
500
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
1000
100
900
90
800
80
700
70
600
60
500
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
▲
▲
Effectivity Date
Effectivity Date
Planned Adjustments Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Average Daily Usage
80
100
900
Zone Levels
800
1000
Zone Levels
90
Average Daily Usage
100
900
Zone Levels
1000
Ramp Down Average Daily Usage
Ramp Up
Seasonality
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
34
Demand Driven Planning Supply generation is based what zone the available stock equation places the part Available stock = on-hand + on-order – demand (past due, due today and qualified spikes)
10,000
Part
Open Supply
On-hand
Demand
Available Stock
Recommended Supply Qty
Action
r457
5453
4012
1200
8265
0
No Action
f576
3358
4054
540
6872
3128
Place New Order
h654
530
3721
213
4038
2162
Place New Order
r672
2743
1732
623
3852
0
Expedite Open Supply (Execution)
5,000
Order Spike Horizon
De-Coupled Explosion 101
201
203
301
302
204
303P 304P
401P 402 403P 404P
501P
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
36
Highly Visible & Collaborative Execution Priority by Buffer Status Problem: Priority by DUE DATE Order #
Order Type
MO 12367 MO 12379 MO 12465 MO 12401 MO 12411
Stock MTO Stock Stock Stock
Order #
Order Type
MO 12367 MO 12379 MO 12465 MO 12401 MO 12411
Stock MTO Stock Stock Stock
Due Date
Customer
5/12/2011 Internal 5/12/2011 Super Tech 5/12/2011 Internal 5/14/2011 Internal 5/16/2011 Internal
Due Date
1
Priority 2: Priority 3:
Customer
Due NOW 5/12/2011 Due NOW Due NOW Due NOW
Strategic Inventory Positioning
Priority 1:
Priority 4:
Internal Super Tech Internal Internal Internal
Priority 5:
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
37
Highly Visible & Collaborative Execution Priority by Buffer Status Solution: Priority by BUFFER STATUS! Order # MO 12379 MO 12401 MO 12465 MO 12367 MO 12411
OH Buffer Status 12% (RED) 27% (RED) 33% (YELLOW) 41% (YELLOW)
Order Type
Due Date
MTO Stock Stock Stock Stock
Customer
5/12/2011 Super Tech 5/14/2011 Internal 5/12/2011 Internal 5/12/2011 Internal 5/16/2011 Internal
Priority 1: Priority 2: Priority 3:
Order # MO 12379 MO 12401 MO 12465 MO 12367 MO 12411
OH Buffer Status 12% (RED) 27% (RED) 33% (YELLOW) 41% (YELLOW)
Order Type
Due Date
MTO Stock Stock Stock Stock
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Customer
5/12/2011 Super Tech Due NOW Internal Due NOW Internal Due NOW Internal Due NOW Internal
Priority 4: Priority 5:
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
38
Highly Visible & Collaborative Execution Material Synchronization Alert Material Synchronization Alert Demand Order #
Part #
MO 532-32 MO 531-47
SAG FPS
Todays Date: 5/20/2011
Release Supply Date QTY Order Type Shortage Order # 5/24/2011 5/28/2011
40 Replenished 60 NB Order Promise Date ▼
MO #9432
5 PO 625-71 60 PO 611-54
Part # Order Type QTY PPZ PPY
Replenished NB
Parent Order Release Date
30 60
Promise Date 5/25/2011 6/2/2011
Parent Order Promise Date ▼
MO# 8763 PO #87632 ▲ Order Promise Date
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
39
Highly Visible & Collaborative Execution Material Synchronization Alert Material Synchronization Alert Demand Order #
Part #
MO 532-32 MO 531-47
SAG FPS
Todays Date: 5/20/2011
Release Supply Date QTY Order Type Shortage Order # 5/24/2011 5/28/2011
40 Replenished 60 NB Order Promise Date ▼
MO #9432
5 PO 625-71 60 PO 611-54
Part # Order Type QTY PPZ PPY
Replenished NB
Parent Order Release Date
30 60
Promise Date 5/25/2011 6/2/2011
Parent Order Promise Date ▼
MO# 8763 PO #87632 ▲ Order Promise Date
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
40
Highly Visible & Collaborative Execution Material Synchronization Alert Material Synchronization Alert Demand Order #
Part #
MO 532-32 MO 531-47
SAG FPS
Todays Date: 5/20/2011
Release Supply Date QTY Order Type Shortage Order # 5/24/2011 5/28/2011
40 Replenished 60 NB Order Promise Date ▼
MO #9432
5 PO 625-71 60 PO 611-54
Part # Order Type QTY PPZ PPY
Replenished NB
Parent Order Release Date
30 60
Promise Date 5/25/2011 6/2/2011
Parent Order Promise Date ▼
MO# 8763 PO #87632 ▲ Order Promise Date
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
41
Highly Visible & Collaborative Execution Lead Time Alerts 63 day lead time
Order Release Date ▼
Order Due Date ▼ 21 Day LTM Alert Zone
G
Y
R
LATE
▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Notification Notification Notification Notification
Lead Time Alerts Status ! !
Order #
Today's Date: 5/20/2011 Days Left Part Type Part #
ASRLT
Request Date
Promise Date
PO 4532
LATE Purchased
PPD
105
5/15/2011
5/19/2011
PO 5120
6 Purchased
PPI
63
5/26/2011
5/26/2011
PO 5214
10 Purchased
PPJ
45
5/24/2011
5/30/2011
PO 5290
12 Purchased
PPF
36
6/1/2011
6/1/2011
Strategic Inventory Positioning
1
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
42
What Execution Looks Like Purchased Items
Distributed Items
Manufactured Items
Order #
Due Date
Buffer Status
PO 820-89
05/12/09
Critical 13%
PO 891-84
05/12/09
Med 39%
PO 276-54
05/12/09
Med 41%
Order #
Due Date
Item #
Buffer Status
WO 819-87
05/24/09
FPA
Critical 13%
WO 832-41
05/22/09
SAD
Critical 17%
WO 211-72
05/22/09
ICB
Med 34%
Item #
Location
Buffer Status
FPA
Region 1
Critical 11%
FPA
Region 2
Med 41%
FPA
Region 3
Med 36%
Supplier 1 Purchased Parts List
Region 1 Bill of Materials PPA
PPE PPJ
PPG
Supplier 2
SAC PPB
PPI
ICA
PPH
PPD
SAF SAA
PPA
Supplier 3
FPA
ICB FPA
Region 2
PPD SAD
PPG
PPI
PPF
PPC
PPE
SAB
ICC PPC
ICD
PPJ PPB
PPF
SAE
FPA
Region 3
PPH
Lead Time Managed Parts
▼follow up ▼ 8 months notification
FPA
43
The Five Components of DDMRP Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning Strategic Inventory Positioning
Buffer Profiles and Levels
Dynamic Adjustments
Demand Driven Planning
Visible and Collaborative Execution
2
3
4
5
Modeling/Re-modeling the Environment
Plan
Execute
1
44
The Power of DDMRP
Asset Amount of inventory
Stock Out Stock-outs, back orders, missed sales
ALERT!
Rebuild
Waste
OK
Too Much Too much, cash, capacity and space tied up in inventory
45
An Example of the Realignment Asset
Stock-outs, back orders, missed sales
Asset
Too much, cash, capacity and space tied up in inventory
Waste
Stock-outs, back orders, missed sales
Too much, cash, capacity and space tied up in inventory
Waste
Projected Inventory Reductions Over 1 Year Inventory Beginning of Period Projected Inventory Reductions (consumption) Projected Inventory Increases - (purchases) Net Inventory Reduction by Period Inventory End of Month
Mo 1 9,564,443 (2,415,391) 589,242 $ (1,826,149) $ 7,738,294 $
$ $ $ $
% Cumlative Inventory Reduction
Mo 2 7,738,294 (796,305) 927,540 131,235 7,869,529
19.1%
Mo 3 7,869,529 (313,565) 14,025 (299,540) 7,569,990
$ $ $ $
17.7%
Mo 4 7,569,990 (187,875) 10,649 (177,226) 7,392,764
$ $ $ $
20.9%
22.7%
$ $ $ $
Mo 5 7,392,764 (113,894) (113,894) 7,278,870
1,000,000
$ $ $ $
23.9%
Mo 7-12 7,194,836 (794,430) (794,430) 6,400,406
$ $ $ $
24.8%
$ $ $ $ $
Totals 9,564,443 (4,705,494) 1,541,456 (3,164,038) 6,400,406
33.1%
33.1%
Net Inventory Reduction by Period
Total Dollars Drained by Period
Total Dollars to Build Positions by Period
Mo 6 7,278,870 (84,033) (84,033) 7,194,836
500,000
$3,000,000
900,000
$2,500,000
800,000
-
700,000
$2,000,000 600,000
(500,000)
500,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
$1,500,000
400,000 (1,000,000)
$1,000,000
300,000 200,000
$500,000
(1,500,000)
100,000 -
$0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
(2,000,000)
46
Is DDMRP really different? DDMRP
ERP/MRP
Kanban/Super
Spreadsheets
5 Zone Buffers
YES
RARELY
NO
RARELY
Dynamically Adjusted Buffers
YES
SOME
SOME
SOME
Planned Adjustments to Buffers
YES
YES, but1
NO
RARELY
Relative Priority Based on Buffer Status
YES
NO
NO
RARELY
Globally Managed Buffer Profiles
YES
NO
NO
NO
Decoupled BoM Explosion
YES
YES, but3
YES, but2
NO
ASR Lead Time Calculation
YES
NO
NO
NO
Qualified Order Spike Horizon and Threshold
YES
RARELY
NO
RARELY
Material Synchronization Alert
YES
YES, but4
NO
NO
Multi-Location Buffer Status Visibility
YES
SOME
SOME
RARELY
Lead Time Managed Parts
YES
NO
NO
NO
Matrix BoM + ASR Lead Time Analytics
YES
NO
NO
NO
Simple and Visible
YES
RARELY
YES
YES, but5
YES, but1 (Planned positions are often forecast driven and, thus, not integrated into a demand driven framework) YES, but2 (Kanbans have no recognition of the BoM, they simply treat every connection as independent and factor only on-hand and on-order stock positions) YES, but3 (While almost every MRP system has the ability to do what is called “two level master scheduling,” it requires someone with extensive MRP background and is a very advanced technique. We have never seen it successfully implemented) YES, but4 (Shortage lists are typically limited to current and past shortages not future potential misalignments) YES, but5 (Most homegrown systems are simple and visible ONLY to the person who uses the tool)
47
Early Adopter Results
Mountain House Division:
Industrial Ingredient Division:
• Sales increased 20% • Customer Fill Rate improved from 79% to 99.6% • 60% reduction in inventory
• 60% reduction in make to order lead time • 100% On-Time-Delivery • 20% reduction in inventory
Raw Material No out of stock Reduced inventory $2.5M+ All material and © copyright Demand Driven Institute 2011, all rights reserved
Early Adopter Results
DDMRP MRP
All material and © copyright Demand Driven Institute 2011, all rights reserved
Early Adopter Results
700
700
Low Inventories High Service Fewer Expedites
Stock-outs reduced by overHigh66%! Inventories $Millions
500
600
500
$Millions
600
400 300
400
Shortages Massive Expedites
300
200
200
100
100
0
0 Dec '01 Dec '02 Dec '03 Dec '04 Dec '05 Dec '06 Dec '07 Dec '08
Longview Inv
Longview TR
Sep '09A
Dec '01 Dec '02 Dec '03 Dec '04 Dec '05 Dec '06 Dec '07 Dec '08
Houston Inv
All material and © copyright Demand Driven Institute 2011, all rights reserved
Houston TR
Sep
What Would “Papa Joe” Say about DDMRP? “Traditional inventory management approaches, in pre-computer days, could obviously not go beyond the limits imposed by the information processing tools available at the time. Because of this almost all of those approaches and techniques suffered from imperfection. They simply represented the best that could be done under the circumstances. They acted as a crutch and incorporated summary, shortcut and approximation methods, often based on tenuous or quite unrealistic assumptions, sometimes force-fitting concepts to reality so as to permit the use of a technique. The breakthrough, in this area, lies in the simple fact that once a computer becomes available, the use of such methods and systems is no longer obligatory. It becomes feasible to sort out, revise, or discard previously used techniques and to institute new ones that heretofore it would have been impractical or impossible to implement. It is now a matter of record that among manufacturing companies that pioneered inventory management computer applications in the 1960s, the most significant results were achieved not by those who chose to improve, refine, and speed up existing procedures, but by those who undertook a fundamental overhaul of their systems.”
35 Years Later Industry Finds Itself in Another Time of Transition and Re-Examination
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