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CityMan Business Solutions Ltd ©Copyright 2011
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DISCLAIMER AND RIGHTS All Rights Reserved CityMan Business Solutions Ltd have been identified as the authors of this work. This right has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transcribed, stored in a retrieval system, translated into any language or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of the copyright owner. Any contravention of this copyright notice on any part of this publication will be met by immediate legal action for which the copyright owner is comprehensively insured. Important Disclaimer The authors disclaim any liability, loss or risk incurred as a consequence of the use or misuse, either directly or indirectly, of any information or advice presented in this book. This book has been sold on the understanding that no guarantee of earnings or promise of future profitability was given either verbally or in writing. The purchaser of this book needs to be aware of the importance of a fast and reliable Internet connection to make best use of the method presented. Any form of betting is speculative and you should never bet with money that you cannot afford to lose. Sensible betting involves the creation of a “betting bank” that is kept separate from other monies.
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Copyright 2011 © CityMan Business Solutions Ltd Lucy's Enhanced Sports Arbitrage System © First published in Great Britain by CityMan Business Solutions, 2011 7 Ford Road, Sheffield, S11 7GZ, United Kingdom. CityMan Business Solutions Ltd have asserted their rights to be identified as authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without prior permission of the publisher.
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Table of Contents 1. Introduction
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2. Basic Lay the Draw
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3. So What Can Go Wrong?
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4. My Preferred Solution to Goalless Matches Page 9 5. Conclusion
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From LayBackAndGetRich.Com - By Lucy Lastik... Lucy's Guide to Enhanced Lay the Draw Betting 1. Introduction Hello there, I'm Lucy, and welcome to my free, enhanced Lay the Draw system guide :). Many novice punters, particularly in the UK, often know a lot about football, so for them a quick route into effective gambling is by exploiting their existing knowledge of this sport. This approach can often turn them into effective punters much more quickly than trying to learn how to “study form” in horse racing – a sport that basically involves trying to guess which one of a bunch of wild animals can run fastest across a field! The oldest online football betting system going is the ‘Lay the Draw’ approach. It is emphatically not my system, and indeed is widely (and freely) available across the world wide web. I am therefore conscious here that a lot of readers will groan at the prospect of reading about it again. Don't! When adjusted for a couple of minor issues (as below), the basic principle of laying the draw between two evenly matched sides that each have a record of leaking goals, then trading out when a goal is scored, remains a solid way of making money from betting. Lay the Draw is a bookie-proof system as it is operated exclusively at betting exchanges. Not only do you therefore not have to worry about getting your bookie account limited, it also means you can bet with large or small stakes, entirely as you wish.
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For example, English Premiership matches often offer millions of pounds of liquidity at Betfair, so there is plenty of scope for very significant profits (and of course, significant losses if you get it wrong!). So what's involved in running the Lay the Draw system? 2. Basic Lay the Draw System The basic principle of “Lay the Draw” is to find games on Betfair featuring evenly matched teams where, according to the Match Odds Market, any of the three possible win/draw outcomes is fairly likely: with ideally, decimal odds of less than 4 being offered for each of the three as here:
The chosen games also need to be flagged as being in the Betfair “In-Play” list (as we will want to place bets on them during the match). In practice, all major matches do go forward into the in-play markets, however Betfair provides a convenient filter via daily “in-play coupons” so you can be sure, as below: Page 6
You should now further screen the match(-es) you have found by selecting only those where punters believe the respective defences are likely to concede easily. The simplest way to do this is to rule out any matches where, in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market, the odds for there being “over 2.5 goals” are longer than they are for “under 2.5 goals”. In the traditional version of Lay the Draw, you then place a Lay Bet in the Match Odds market on all selected matches before the kick-off. Once the game(s) go(es) in-play, you sit and wait for a goal to be scored by either side. When it is, the Match Odds market will be automatically suspended and re-loaded by Betfair, with the back odds for the draw usually coming back much higher than the lay odds you took at the start. You now back the draw at longer odds than you originally laid it at, in such a way as to lock in a small profit no matter what the result. (You can play around with the exact stake required in Betfair itself, as keying a potential back bet into the Match Odds Market without submitting will give you “trial balances” in green under each of the 3 outcomes. Submit when you've found a stake of the right Page 7
size to lock in profit no matter how the game finishes. 3.
So What Can Go Wrong?
By far and away the biggest problem is goalless matches; as the system depends on a goal being scored by someone before the back bet is placed. If no goal is forthcoming, the system cannot be used properly. (Which is why we filtered for teams with leaky defences above). A common solution is to trade out of goalless games when (say) a certain period has gone (70 minutes maybe?), or when the Draw odds have come down to (perhaps) 2.0 – as the Draw will have been getting more and more likely the whole time that the game remained scoreless. Both of these options involve placing a back bet for less than you originally laid, and accepting a net loss to offset against all the other times when you will have made money with the same system. However, although minimising losses is often a valid betting strategy, there is an additional factor to consider here, around the almost inevitable “Murphy's Law” dynamic - whereby you can almost predict that the moment after you decide to trade out, one or other of the teams will score the decisive goal that could have made you a lot of money. It has to be said that the trade-out approach has its supporters, but I remain unconvinced as some of the losses arising can be significant, thereby undermining the system's overall profitability. I therefore recommend an alternative strategy (see paragraph 4). The other key weakness of the system relates to unbalanced matches. If, for instance, Manchester United are playing a bottom of the table team, you can expect United's odds to be significantly shorter than their opponents'. If you were to lay the Page 8
draw in this match, and then United were to concede first, the odds of the draw would probably shorten, not lengthen, thus stopping us locking in a profit. This is why I have proposed selecting only “even” matches above. 4.
My Preferred Solution to Goalless Matches
The problem with goalless matches arises from the big disparity between the odds against a draw at the start, and the odds against the same event at (say) the 70 minute mark when no one has scored. My preferred solution is therefore to −
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wait till half-time before you place the original lay bet (which you obviously only do on matches that still remain level at this point). Never trade out. Instead, wait right until the final whistle, if necessary, for a goal, and only place your back bet if a goal is scored.
These small changes in overall approach will drastically reduce the lay odds that you initially commit to (therefore limiting your overall potential liability), whilst still giving you a full 45 minutes to secure your all-important goal. Given that defenders unquestionably tire in the second half, and that managers are tempted to 'go for the win' later in a match, this would seem to be a solution more attuned to the way football is actually played. This approach also allows you to forget about expensive trading out solutions (as you’re not losing as much if there are no more goals). It may sound risky as you now only have 45 minutes to find a goal, but the flipside is that very late goals can make you a fortune (as the back odds will jump out much further once Betfair reloads the market). And running multiple matches in parallel on a Saturday afternoon often then becomes really exciting and rewarding. Page 9
5. Conclusion I recommend you try the lay the draw system with small amounts of real money. I'd avoid totally risk-free paper trading as it isn't realistic enough for you to learn about the emotions you will experience. Then as you make a little money, reinvest your winnings in increased stakes. Make sure you have access to good quality real-time score data (Radio 5 live and Sky Sports News are good for the English premiership but there are many other online sources refreshed almost as quickly). Find one that contains all the games you are tracking in a single place. And give it a go!
[email protected] August 2011
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