loadshedding research_final report

University of Dhaka

IMPACT OF LOAD SHEDDING IN DHAKA CITY

Submitted by Md. Shakil Ahmed

3-09-16-041

Sourov Mutsuddi

3-08-14-053

Romena Parveen

3-09-16-012

Amit Debnath

3-09-16-044

Nahid Rijwan

3-09-17-033

Under the Supervision of  Professor Dr. Shaker Ahmed

________________________________ _________________________________________________ __________________  _ 

Submitted: 8 th August’ 2010

Letter of transmittal

Table of contents List of tables List of figure

Ch-1: Introduction 1.1 Background:

Load shedding is the term used to describe the deliberate switching off  of electrical supply to parts of the electricity network, and hence to the customers in those areas. This practice is a core part of the emergency management of all electricity networks.

Load shedding can be required when there is an imbalance between electr electricit icity y demand demand (custo (customer mers’ s’ usage) usage) and electr electrici icity ty supply supply (the (the ability of the electricity network to generate and transport the required amount of electricity to meet this demand).

When there is a shortfall in the electricity supply, there can be a need to reduce demand very quickly to an acceptable level, or risk the entire electricity network becoming unstable and shutting down completely. This This is known nown as a “cas “casc cade” ade” even event, t, and and can can end end in a total otal or widespread network shutdown affecting very large areas of a country. Load shedding normally happens in two ways:

Automatic Load Shedding: This is a result of concurrent failures of  major element(s) in the national grid (e.g. co-incidental generator or key   transmission   line   failures),   resulting   in   protection   schemes initiating the automatic isolation of additional parts of the national grid, to protect the entire grid from cascading to a total blackout. Automatic load shedding always occurs on the transmission system level, with the result being large amounts of electricity and large blocks of customers taken off supply in a very short time. Typical load reduction amounts can be in the the orde orderr of 1000 1000MW MW – 2000 2000MW MW,, affe affect ctin ing g hund hundre reds ds of  thousands of customers. Manual Manual (Selective) (Selective) Load Shedding: Shedding: This This occu occurs rs wher where e time time is available (typically up to 60mins) to make selective choices on what cust custom omer ers s are are shed shed.. Selec Selecti tive ve load load shed sheddi ding ng ofte often n occu occurs rs on the the dist distri ribu buti tion on syst system em leve level, l, and and typi typical cally ly requ requir ires es medi medium um to smal smalll amou amount nts s of elect electri rici city ty to be “she “shed” d” in a shor shortt time time.. Typi Typica call load load reduction amounts can be in the order of 50MW – 100MW, affecting tens of thousands of customers at a time. If required, manual load shedding can also occur at the sub-transmission level, resulting in large

blocks of customers being shed with little to no discrimination between cust custom omer er type types. s. This This situ situat atio ion n is invo invoke ked d when when a larg large e amou amount nt of  electricity (500MW – 2000MW) is required to be shed in a timeframe of  typically 1mins to 15mins, often under emergency conditions.

The The prio priori rity ty  as  asse sess ssme ment nt for for sele select ctiv ive e load load shed sheddi ding ng is base based d on guidelines guidelines which have been ratified ratified by the Bangladesh Bangladesh Government Government & BPDB.

As a guide, feeders that supply major hospitals, mental health care institutions, remand centers, sewerage and water pumping stations, industries requiring continuous supply, major public transport supplies, and traffic lights at major intersections, airports and high rise buildings will   have   a   higher   priority   compared   to   feeders   that   have   a predom predomina inantl ntly y reside residenti ntial, al, commer commercia ciall or other other indust industria riall custom customer er mix.

1.2: Literature Review 1.2.1: Electricity sector in Bangladesh

Bangla Banglades desh's h's energ energy y infras infrastru tructu cture re is quite quite small, small, insuff insuffici icient ent and poorly managed. The per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is one one of the the lowe lowest st (136 (136 kW kWh) h) in the the worl world. d. No Nonc ncom omme merc rcia iall ener energy gy sources,   such   as   wood,   animal   wastes,   and   crop   residues,   are estimated   to   account   for   over   half   of   the   country's   energy consumption. Bangladesh has small reserves of oil and coal, but very large natural gas resources. Commercial energy consumption is mostly natural gas (around 66%), followed by oil, hydropower and coal.

Elec Electr tric icit ity y is the the majo majorr sour source ce of powe powerr for for coun countr try' y's s most most of the the economic activities. Bangladesh's installed electric generation capacity was 4.7 GW in 2009; only three-fourth of which is considered to be ‘available’. Only 40% of the population has access to electricity with a per  capita  availability   of  136  kWh   per  annum.  Problems  in  the Bangladesh's electric power sector include corruption in administration, high system losses, and delays in completion of new plants, low plant effici efficienc encies ies,, err errati atic c power power supply supply,, electr electrici icity ty  the  theft, ft, blacko blackouts uts,, and shortages of funds for power plant maintenance. Overall, the country's

generation plants have been unable to meet system demand over the past decade.

In genera generatin ting g and distri distribut buting ing electr electrici icity, ty, the failur failure e to adequa adequatel tely y manage the load leads to extensive load shedding which results in severe severe disrup disruptio tion n in the indust industria riall produ producti ction on and other other econom economic ic activities. A recent survey reveals that power outages result in a loss of  industrial output worth $1 billion a year which reduces the GDP growth by about half a percentage point in Bangladesh. A major hurdle in effici efficient ently ly delive deliverin ring g power power is caused caused by the ineffi inefficie cient nt distri distribut bution ion system system.. It is estima estimated ted that that the total total transm transmiss ission ion and distri distribut bution ion losses in Bangladesh amount to one-third of the total generation, the value of which is equal to US $247 million per year.

Renewable Energy: Bangladesh has 15 MW solar energy capacities through rural households and 1.9 MW wind power in Kutubdia and Feni. Bangla Banglades desh h has planne planned d to increa increase se renewa renewable ble energy energy 450 MW by 2015 and 1600 MW by 2020.

Recent Plans: The Ministry of Power and Energy has been mobilizing Tk 40,000 crore ($5.88 billion) to generate 5,000 MW of electricity to reduce load shedding into a tolerable level within next four and half  years during the term of the present government. Under the plan, the Power Power Develo Developme pment nt Board Board (PDB) (PDB) would would produc produce e 500 MW gas-fi gas-fired red elect electri rici city ty betw betwee een n July July and and Decem Decembe ber, r, 2009 2009 to over over come come load load shed sheddi ding ng with within in Dece Decemb mber er.. The The PDB PDB woul would d hire hire furn furnac acee-oi oill base based d 1,000MW of electricity from private sector from January to June 2010, the plan said. In 2011, the government would install furnace-oil based 800 MW capacity of power plant. The PDB officials would seek suitable place to establish the plant, a senior official of the PDB said. Besides the government would also hire another diesel or furnace oil based power plant having capacity of 700 MW in 2012 to keep load shedding into  mild  level,  the   official  said.  However,  the  government  also contem contempla plates tes to establ establish ish four four coal-f coal-fire ired d based based power power plant plants s with with capaci capacity ty of prod produc ucin ing g 500 500 MW of elec electr tric icit ity y each each with with publ public ic and and priv privat ate e part partne ners rshi hip p (PPP (PPP)) in Rajsh Rajshah ahii and and Chit Chitta tago gong ng regi region on.. The The gove govern rnme ment nt has has init initia iall lly y trie tried d to crea create te fund fund of Tk 6,00 6,000 0 cror crore e to impl implem emen entt the the plan plan,, sour source ces s said said.. The The powe powerr divi divisi sion on has has trie tried d to utilize the government's budgetary allocation of Tk. 2000 crore for PPP

in this regard, sources added. "If we can create the fund of Tk. 6,000 crore, it would be possible also to mobilize Tk 40,000 crore under PPP to produc produce e 5,000 5,000 MW f electr electrici icity ty within within four four and half years, years,"" PDB chairman ASM Alamgir Kabir told the New Nation on   June 29, 2010. During the meeting, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina permitted the power division to implement the PDB plan to reduce load shedding up to a tolerable level. Nuclear Nuclear Power Power Plant: Plant: Bangladesh plans to set up the 1,000 MW power plant at Rooppur, 200 km (125 miles) northwest of the capital Dhaka, by 2011.

1.2.2: Load Shedding Situation at Present in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is facing huge load shedding of electricity. Almost all part of Dhaka Dhaka having having load load sheddi shedding ng of electr electrici icity ty everyd everyday ay at least least four four to eight hours everyday. In Karwan Bazar, power disruption occurred five times with more than five hours of outage between 8:00am and 5:00pm and in 24 hours almost eight to nine hours. Multiple power cuts for periods totaling six to seven hours occurred in Eskaton Garden, Dhanmondi, Dhanmondi, Kalabagan, Kalabagan, Moghbazar Moghbazar,, Khilgaon, Khilgaon, Goran, Goran, Shahjahanp Shahjahanpur, ur, Mohammadpur, Banani, Uttara and other places. Every   summer   Bangladesh   face   huge   load   shedding   problem. According According to the official official statistics statistics,, the country’s country’s electricity electricity shortage gone up 1000 megawatts (MW) to 1259 MW with the demand of 4806 MW on 2009.  Authority said this year (2010) about 1400 MW to 1800 MW electricity shortage will face this year, which is almost twice more than last year and the country need about 5000 MW. So this summer we might face the problem that’s we have not face last ten years. In Bangladesh Bangladesh electricity electricity power is not generate as much as our demand. demand. So  every  summer  we   face  huge  load   shedding  and  people  are suffering, but in winter there is almost not load shedding. In summer temperatures goes up to around 40° Celsius. So in this situation if  there is load-shedding of electricity people face uncertain condition. Power Development Board (PDB) sources said while the official power demand was just 5000MW, the unofficial demand was hovering around 6000 MW. The officially estimated power demand is 5000 MW against a generation of around 3500 MW. Around 1500 MW power could not be generated due to short supply of gas to many power plants. Gas is a major concern also because several new gas-fired power plants with

nearly 1000 MW generation capacity are expected to be drafted into service this year. “We are expecting 200MW new power generation from from Ma May. y. If we cann cannot ot ensu ensure re the the gas gas supp suppli lies es,, it will will beco become me meaningless” PDB pointed out. A PDB official official said the real power power situation was worse than the official official picture. “The Rural Electrification Board (REB) needs 2500 MW, but is given less than half of that. Dhaka Electricity Supply Authority (DESA) and Dhaka Electric Supply Company (DESCO) need more than 2000 MW power and the PDB needs another 2000 MW,”

CH-2: OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY

2.1 Objectives: The overall objective of the research research is to collect socio-economic data from the selected areas in order to use them in and impact studies. The objectives to be concerned are as follows: 1. Whether there is any electricity electricity outage, and and the frequency frequency of the problem. 2. Problems faced faced by general general peoples due to load shedding. 3. How the peoples are are tackling the power shortage shortage problem in their day day to day lives. 4. How is their perception perception on government’s government’s role regarding regarding the load shedding issue? 5. Suggestio Suggestions. ns.

These specific objectives of the survey will be to collect data relating to the following variables: 1. Age Age 2. Gender Gender 3. Income Income level level 4. Occupatio Occupation n

Methodology: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Research type – Exploratory Research Population size – People of Dhaka City Sample size – 100 People Sampling technique – Multistage Stratified Random Sampling Nature of data collection – Primary data Data collection instrument – Questionnaire Data processing instrument – EXCEL

Research Method:

A descriptive research approach will be used to conduct the study. We will use the survey method and a nd secondary data.

Sources of Data:

1. Primary Data 2. Secondary Data Primary Data: We will collect our primary data to figure out the main reasons and public’s reaction about load shedding and power crisis in Bangladesh by conducting a survey on 100 general people.  To do that survey first we have to prepare some questions and some suitable answers  against   against  each   each  question.   question.     Then  we   we  have   have   to pretest  that   that questionnaire out side of the sample.

After that we will go out for general people to conduct our survey. The businessmen,   shopkeepers,   doctors,   teachers,   retired   peoples, servants, housewives and students will be participating in our survey.

Secondary   Data: We   will   collect   our   primary   data   from   the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), and from internet. However, bulk of the data will be collected from primary sources.

Study Area:

As the survey is conducted in a colony within Dhaka city, first a small colony area was selected randomly. The Rampura Television Center area was chosen to conduct the survey.

Sample Size:

Sample Size is predefined by our teacher Dr. Shaker Ahmed, and it is 100.

The   research   survey   was   conducted   in   two   different   types   of  respondents one is the household and the other is small enterprises. So the stratified random sampling was chosen in selecting sample. The total number of sample was divided into two equal parts. One is the household respondents and the other is small enterprise respondents. The sampling table is as follows: Type of Sample

Number of Sample

Household Respondents

50

Small Enterprise Respondents

50

Instruments to be used:

Data will be collected using questionnaire. The questionnaire will first be pretested out side the sample area and then it will be administered in the test area.

Implementation:

The following activities will be performed by Team Members in 3 phases:  

Data collection Data processing



Report writing

Ch-3: Results and Analysis 1. Frequency Distribution of Age Age (yrs)

Frequenc y

%

15-20

5

5%

20-25

43

43%

25-30

16

16%

Above

36

36%

30 Total

100

100%

2. Frequency Distribution of Gender Gender

Frequen cy

%

62

62%

Male Female

 

38

Total

 

38%

100

100%

3. Distribution of Occupation Occupati on

Freque ncy

%

Business man  

47

Job Holder  

12  

Labor

 

0

Others

   

Total

12%

 

21

Household Students

47%

 

0 21%

20

 

20%

0

 

0

100

100%

4. Distribution of Income Income Level (BDT)

Frequency

Below 3000  

06

3000-8000

17

8000-15000

   

26

15000-25 -25000  

42

Above 25000  

09

Total

100

5. Duration of Load Shedding Duration

Frequen cy

Below 2 Hrs  

11

2 Hrs-4 Hrs  

13

4Hrs-8 Hrs  

58

Above 8 Hrs  

18

%

6. Occurrence of Load Shedding Period Period

Day Time

Frequency

 

Night Time  

46 54

%

7. Affected Activity Activity

Frequency

Household Work  

37

Study

46

 

Business Activity

 

Family Recreation

64  

13

Daily Rest & Sleep  

37

Others

03

 

%

8. If adopted alternative measure measure Alternative

frequency

Mea Me asure sure Take Taken n  

55

Measure not Taken  

45

%

9. Alternative Type Type

Generator

Frequency

 

11

I.P.S / U.P.S  

27

Rental Power  

17

%

10. Extra cost paid for alternative (As percentage of total cost of  electricity) Extra Cost

5-10%

 

Frequency

22

10-15%

 

8

15-20%

 

16

20-25%

 

9

11. How respondents think they could reduce the loss of electricity at personal level Ways to reduce loss

Frequenc y

Using energy saving equipments  

48

Reducing wrong use

62

 

Adopt Adopting ing renewa renewable ble sourc source e of electr electricit icity y  

32

Others

05

 

%

13. Does technical & administrative losses are the main reason for recent power crisis? Opinion

frequency

Yes

 

81

No

 

19

%

14. People’s perception on govt.’s role to meet up the load shedding problem perception

frequency

Highly Highly satis satisfie fied d   0

%

Satisfied Neutral

 

0

 

4

Dissatisfied

 

37

Highly dissatisfied

 

59

15. Age Gender Cross-Table Gender Group Male

Age Group

Female

Total

15-20

 4  4

 

1

 

5

20-25

  26

 

17

 

43

25-30

  10

 

6

 

16

14

 

36

30 above Total

  22

 

62

38

 

100

17. Type of Alternative - Adopted for alternative Cross-Table Adopted for Alternative Yes

Type of  Alternative

Generator

11

IPS / UPS

27

Rental

17

Total

No

   

-

 

-

   

11 27

 

17

Electricity Others

0

Need Alternative

-

29

29

Do not Need

-

16

16

Total

55

 

 

-

 

45

0

 

100

18. Alternative type – income level cross table Alternative Type

Income level

Total

Not Using Alternat ive

Generat or

IPS/UP S

Rental Power

Below 3000

0

0

0

6

6

3000-8000

0

2

5

10

17

8000-15000

0

3

4

19

26

1500025000

3

21

8

10

42

Above 25000

8

1

0

0

9

11

27

17

45

100

Total

Ch-4: Conclusion & Recommendation Recommendation Even though due to number of reasons and limitations of this study, may not be considered accurate and effective in its result. But there are still number of suggestions that can be given under this study. Study shows there are many people who came under alternative power supply to run their days work and economic activity. And many people want to adopt alternate power source, but due to their higher cost, peoples of all income level can not reach for alternatives. And general peoples are not satisfied with govt.’s role regarding this load shedding issue. Therefore government should take steps in this direction to facilitate the users.

References: 1. Solving the energy crisis: Salman F Rahman and Forrest Cookson

2. Maximizing Growth for Bangladesh: Bangladesh: A Private Sector Vision, Vision, Ifty Islam, Asian Tiger Capital Partners 3. Power Crisis: Issues and Challenges Md. Mizanur Rahman, Energybangla.com 4. Bangladesh Power System Master Plan Review, Engr Khondkar Khondkar Abdus Saleque, Feb 2009, Enerybangla.com