Load Forecast NTDC

Draft Copy

NATIONAL TRANSMISSION AND DESPATCH COMPANY LTD. PAKISTAN

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST Based On Regression Analysis (Period 2008 to 2030)

OFFICE OF G.M. PLANNING POWER NTDC / PEPCO WAPDA HOUSE LAHORE

February 2008

Table of Contents Number

1.

Title

Page No.

Glossary of Abbreviations

2

List of Tables

3

List of Figures

4

Executive Summary

5-6

Introduction

7

1.1

Background

7

1.2

Strategy

7-8

2.

Historical Power System Supply And Demand Analysis

9

2.1

Supply Pattern

9

2.1.1

Load Shedding

9

2.1.2

Transmission and Distribution Losses

9

2.1.3

System Load Factor

11

2.1.4

Demand Side Management

12

2.2

Energy Share (Province Wise & Category Wise)

12

3.

Long-Term (Regression Based) Load Forecast

14

3.1

Regression Methodology

14

3.1.1

Parameters of Regression

14

3.2

Regression Relationships

15

3.3

Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class

15

3.3.1

Low, Normal and High Scenarios

15

3.4

Projections of Independent Variables

15

3.5

Regression Results

16

3.6

Generation Forecast

17

3.6.1

Projection of Losses

17

3.6.2

Projection of Load Factor

17

3.7

Forecast Results

18

3.8

Forecast with DSM

18

3.9

Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales)

18

Glossary of Abbreviations Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Abbreviations AGR COM DSM Exp. to KESC GDP GoP GR GWh IND IPPs KESC MkWh NPP PEPCO PIDE PMS POP Ps/KWh

Full Word Agriculture Commercial Demand Side Management Export to Karachi Electric Supply Company Gross Domestic Product Government of Pakistan Growth Rate Gega Watt Hour Industrial Independent Power Producer Karachi Electric Supply Company Million Kilo Watt Hour National Power Plan Pakistan Electric Power Company Pakistan Institute Development Economic Power Market Survey Population Paisa Per Kilo Watt Hour

List of Tables Number Title 1

Summary of Forecast Results – (Country)

2-1

Historical Energy Generation, Sale and Losses

2-2

PEPCO Load Factor (Historical)

2-3

KESC Load Factor (Historical)

2-4

Historical Province-Wise Energy Sale (GWh)

3-1

Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class

3-2

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Low

3-3

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Normal

3-4

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-High

3-5

Projected GDP Growth Rates

3-6(a)

Actual Population and Customers – Country (1970-2007)

3-6(b)

Projected Population and Customers – Country (2008-2030)

3-7

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO and KESC) – Low

3-8

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO and KESC) – Normal

3-9

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO and KESC) – High

3-10

Load Forecast (PEPCO) – Low

3-11

Load Forecast (PEPCO) – Normal

3-12

Load Forecast (PEPCO) – High

3-13

Load Forecast (KESC) – Low

3-14

Load Forecast (KESC) – Normal

3-15

Load Forecast (KESC) – High

3-16

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country – Low

3-17

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country – Normal

3-18

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country – High

3-19

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country including DSM

List of Figures Number Title 1

Summary of Forecast Results – Country

2-1

Province wise share in Energy Sale

2-2

Energy Share in Sales (Category wise)

3-1

Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales)

Executive Summary The growth in electric energy use in Pakistan is expected to remain high for many years to come, and, by 2030, total demand is expected to increase by factors of between 5.6 to 8.2 times over the present year 2007 level i.e. 18,883 MW. This implies average annual growth rates of between 7.8% and 9.6% of the low and high scenarios of demand respectively. Demand for electric energy grew at an annual rate of 8.8% for the normal scenario during the period from 2007 to 2030. Many factors influence the load growth, and as these factors are difficult to predict, future load growth is potentially very variable, hence, needs review periodically. The longer-term forecast was based on historic relationships between past consumption, economic growth and number of customers. The study determined that there was a very significant potential to improve the efficiency of energy use through programs of DSM. Experience in other countries shows that important capital and operating cost savings for the electric sector can be obtained through DSM. This study recommends that Pakistan commit to an aggressive DSM program immediately. A forecast, including the potential impact of DSM, was prepared and is given in Table 3-19. The methodology employed in this report is multiple regression technique. The overall energy demand projections are achieved by summing the forecasted individual category-wise energy demands (i.e. Domestic, Commercial, Industrial, Agricultural, Traction, Street light and Bulk). The power demand is thereafter evaluated by adding appropriate losses and employing a suitable load factor on yearly basis. Three scenarios of the load forecast are illustrated graphically in the Figure below. Figure – 1

Load Forecast FIG 1

Summary Of Forecast Results (MW) - Country 160000

Megawatts(MW)

140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0 2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Years

2021

2023

2025

Low

2027

Normal

2029

High

In the year 2030, under Normal scenario the forecast for Peak Demand is 1,13,695 MW, nearly 15.2 % higher than Low scenario (98,557 MW) and nearly 21.8 % lower than High scenario (1,45,304 MW). The three principal energy and demand forecasts for the country including KESC are summarized in the Table below. Table - 1

Summary of Forecast Results Description

2015

2020

2025

2030

G.R. (2007-30)

2007

2010

Low Scenario

83463

112311 176178 261042 370882 500117 8.1%

Normal Scenario

83463

112955 181018 276937 409874 578560 8.8%

High Scenario

92647

113355 185239 295706 470527 735592 9.9%

Low Scenario

111078

143910 212724 307328 436911 589460 7.5%

Normal Scenario

111078

144711 218448 325740 482080 680330 8.2%

High Scenario

111078

145233 223618 348182 554680 868434 9.4%

Low Scenario

18883

24339

35271

51296

73041

98557

Normal Scenario

18883

24474

36217

54359

80566

113695 8.1%

High Scenario

18883

24562

37075

58120

92762

145304 9.3%

Sale (GWh)

Generation (GWh)

Peak Demand (MW) 7.4%

In addition to the above, an overview of load, losses and system demand for the three scenarios (Low, Normal, High) in the form of MW is depicted in tables Table-1(A), Table-1(B), Table1(C) receptively. The forecast can be used for generation planning, however, for transmission planning during the medium term period (2008-2014) PMS (Power Market Survey) forecast (Grid wise demand) would be advisable and appropriate to be referred, which is in process of development. It is important to note that in long term planning, a range of forecast is typically developed to bracket the expectations about higher and lower scenarios for load growth. The longer the forecast period, the greater is the uncertainty. However to reduce the uncertainty, it is recommended that Normal scenario should be considered as base case.

Table-1 (A)

Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - Low (MW) Year

Year Description

Description

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Load

11365

12519

13719

15011

16346

17746

19225

20817

22678

24618

26652

28808

31108

33561

36133

38837

41700

44661

47751

50977

54243

57569

61011

64606

Transmission

1000

1034

1061

1084

1098

1105

1105

1099

1093

1077

1049

1011

1092

1178

1268

1363

1463

1567

1676

1789

1903

2020

2141

2267

Distribution

2242

2337

2420

2496

2557

2605

2642

2670

2705

2721

2717

2696

2911

3140

3381

3634

3902

4179

4468

4770

5076

5387

5709

6045

Auxiliary

531

577

625

675

727

779

834

893

962

1032

1105

1181

1275

1376

1481

1592

1710

1831

1958

2090

2224

2360

2501

2649

Total Losses

3773

3949

4105

4255

4381

4489

4581

4661

4760

4829

4871

4888

5278

5694

6130

6589

7075

7577

8101

8649

9203

9767

10351

10961

15138

16468

17824

19266

20728

22235

23805

25479

27437

29447

31523

33696

36386

39255

42264

45426

48774

52239

55852

59626

63445

67337

71362

75567

Losses

System Demand

Table-1 (B)

Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - Normal (MW) Year

Year Description

Description

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 11365

12531

13752

15078

16462

17926

19483

21177

23167

25266

27481

29853

32408

35166

38094

41196

44523

48016

51688

55571

59586

63674

67971

72527

Transmission

1000

1035

1064

1088

1106

1116

1119

1118

1117

1105

1082

1048

1137

1234

1337

1446

1562

1685

1814

1950

2091

2234

2385

2545

Distribution

2242

2340

2425

2507

2575

2632

2677

2716

2763

2792

2802

2793

3033

3291

3565

3855

4166

4493

4837

5200

5576

5958

6360

6787

531

578

626

678

732

787

846

908

982

1059

1139

1224

1329

1442

1562

1689

1825

1969

2119

2278

2443

2610

2787

2973

3773

3953

4115

4274

4412

4535

4642

4742

4862

4957

5023

5065

5498

5966

6463

6989

7554

8146

8769

9428

10109

10803

11532

12305

15138

16484

17868

19352

20874

22460

24126

25919

28029

30223

32504

34918

37907

41132

44557

48185

52077

56163

60458

65000

69696

74477

79503

84832

Load

Losses Auxiliary

Total Losses

System Demand

Table-1 C

Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - High (MW) Year

Year Description

Description

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Load

11365

12540

13777

15132

16561

18090

19738

21557

23718

26036

28535

31267

34281

37616

41252

45229

49628

54393

59601

65317

71419

77963

85110

93010

Transmission

1000

1036

1065

1092

1112

1126

1134

1138

1143

1139

1123

1097

1203

1320

1448

1587

1741

1909

2091

2292

2506

2736

2986

3264

Distribution

2242

2341

2430

2516

2590

2656

2712

2764

2829

2877

2909

2926

3208

3520

3860

4232

4644

5090

5577

6112

6683

7295

7964

8703

Auxiliary

531

578

627

681

736

794

857

925

1006

1092

1183

1282

1405

1542

1691

1854

2035

2230

2444

2678

2928

3196

3489

3813

Total Losses

3773

3955

4123

4289

4439

4576

4703

4827

4978

5108

5215

5305

5816

6382

6999

7674

8420

9228

10112

11082

12117

13227

14440

15780

15138

16495

17899

19422

21000

22666

24441

26383

28696

31143

33750

36572

40097

43998

48251

52902

58048

63622

69713

76399

83536

91191

99550 108791

Losses

System Demand

1.

Introduction 1.1

Background

The power system planning broadly covers three segments of an electric power network namely Generation, Transmission and Distribution facilities. The developments in these sub-sectors whereas depend on many diverse parameters are also governed by the growth of economic parameters in domestic, commercial, agricultural and industrial sectors. The supply-side potential has to be assessed and developed to fulfil the demand side requirements, and side by side the interconnected system of transmission lines has to be developed to transmit the generated power to load centres. The load forecasting has always been the basis of additions of generation plants and transmission lines in any grid system. WAPDA was created in 1958 and at that time Pakistan was quite under developed and the total demand of WAPDA was around 100 MW. All along these years the country has been passing through different stages of development and the peak load met during 2006-07 was 14,941 MW. However a lot of hydro developments along upper Indus are yet to be carried out, indigenous coal resources are to be harnessed for power generation and import of power from neighbouring countries are options which may also be considered. This undoubtedly will involve huge expenditures which will necessitate least cost options to be adopted after assessing the future loads and developing a long range power plan to meet demand targets.

1.2

Strategy

The load forecasting is the fundamental element of power planning involving prediction of the future levels of power demand to serve as the basis for supply-side and demand side planning. Load forecasts are prepared for different time frames and level of detail. Generation planning requires a system level forecast of total generation requirements. Transmission and distribution planning requires far more load-levels and geographic details to assess the location, timing and loading of individual lines and transformation facilities. The load forecast is also used in demand-side management, revenue estimation and financial planning. The long-term forecast (2008 to 2030) presented in this report is based on a regression analysis of past consumption trends and relationships. The long range forecast is appropriate for generation planning. Segregation of the forecast into load centres and grid stations is based on PMS model considering developments in sub-sectors of industry, commerce, agriculture and domestic which have been taking place in a random fashion. In view of this an extensive data has to be collected for PMS model. Originally data used to be collected by PMS subdivisions and forwarded to divisional office in Lahore for final processing. The data collected for existing loads includes consumption by customer types defined as domestic, commercial, small industrial, large industrial, tube wells, public lighting and traction. Energy forecasts are computed for each consumption category at the sub-area level on the basis of trend analysis per customer sales including new developments in industrial, domestic and commercial sub-sectors. Industrial, commercial and domestic load forecasts include interviews, trend projections and a review of the applications for new and increased service. Customer growth factors, load factors, and diversity factors are applied separately to estimate the distribution of demand by grid station.

A detailed regression analysis involves the review of fundamental quantitative relationships in the electricity demand of Pakistan and the related independent variables in the data like electricity price, sectoral GDP, population etc. As historical load-shedding estimates are included in the data base, the resulting equations predict the energy that will be supplied if PEPCO system has no technical or supply constraints. This report provides detailed load forecast for PEPCO, KESC and Country for years from 2008 to 2030. The country level forecast has not been disaggregated at grid station level. It will be undertaken subsequently in the next step.

2.

Historical Power System Supply And Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply Pattern Supply characteristics such as load shedding practices, auxiliary, transmission & distribution losses and the system load factor are essential ingredients needed to forecast generation as well as electricity demand requirements.

2.1.1 Load Shedding PEPCO and KESC systems are currently supply constrained in both capacity and transmission capability necessitating selective interruption of supply seasonally at peak and during off-peak periods as well. Load shedding will continue until sufficient additional capacity can be brought on line to recover suppressed demand and satisfy new growth. In the meantime several measures, in addition to capacity addition, are proposed and being implemented on an urgent basis to avert / mitigate the load shedding crises. Presently NPCC (National Power Control Centre) estimates the daily quantum of demand / energy deficit and DISCOs have the responsibility to implement the shedding as per criteria of distribution of rural / urban and priority feeders. A maximum quantum of 2,546 MW has been shed in year 2007. Following are the main reasons of load shedding:

Reasons of Load Shedding Sufficient generation capacity has not been added in the National Grid to meet the load requirements. Hydro capacity limitations due to water shortages in the reservoirs of Hydel plants during winter period Reduced gas quotas for thermal plants in winter due to increased consumption of gas in domestic sector. Generation capacity de-ration of old GENCO plants in summer due to weather conditions The forecasts developed in this report have accounted for load shedding. It is, therefore, assumed that the energy demand will be fully met. To that end, the sales data used in the regression, for example, has been adjusted to include an estimate of the energy shed. Thus, the sales figures reported here will tend to be higher than the actual level of sales reported in the “official” NTDC statistics publications.

2.1.2 Transmission and Distribution Losses During the 1980’s, WAPDA introduced programs to reduce power and energy losses throughout its system, the implementation of which proved to be quite fruitful. Present high level of system losses particularly distribution losses suggests that loss reduction efforts should continue to receive considerable attention in the near term in order to effectively reduce the cost of electricity to the customers. The following table contains a summary of energy generation, sale and auxiliary, transmission & distribution losses since 1997 for both PEPCO and KESC.

Table 2-1

Historical Energy Generation, Sale and Losses Gross Generation

Auxiliary Consumption

Energy sent out

Transmission Losses

Distribution Losses

Units sold

(GWh)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

1997

50782

1222

2.4

49560

4169

8.2

6862

13.5

38529

1998

53259

1071

2.0

52188

4470

8.4

8296

15.6

39422

1999

53683

935

1.7

52748

4181

7.8

9667

18.0

38900

2000

55873

1200

2.1

54673

4017

7.2

9746

17.4

40910

2001

58455

1173

2.0

57282

4594

7.9

9304

15.9

43384

2002

60860

1318

2.2

59542

4600

7.6

9738

16.0

45204

GR(1997-2002)

3.7%

1.5%

3.7%

2.0%

2003

64040

1346

2.1

62694

4908

7.7

10365

16.2

47421

2004

69094

1397

2.0

67697

5054

7.3

11151

16.1

51492

2005

73520

1464

2.0

72056

5467

7.4

11247

15.3

55342

2006

82225

1821

2.2

80404

5839

7.1

12160

14.8

62405

2007

87837

1762

2.0

86075

5709

6.50

12797

14.6

67569

GR(2002-2007)

7.6%

6.0%

7.6%

4.4%

1997

9327

489

6.6

8715

270

2.9

2853

30.6

5640

1998

10348

494

4.8

9854

259

2.5

3125

30.2

6385

1999

10620

470

4.4

10150

266

2.5

3656

34.4

6131

2000

11446

512

4.5

10934

286

2.5

4113

35.9

6430

2001

11677

534

4.6

11143

292

2.5

3810

32.6

6923

2002

12115

568

4.7

11547

303

2.5

4444

36.7

6718

GR(1997-2002)

5.4%

3.0%

5.8%

2.3%

2003

12616

581

4.6

12035

315

2.5

4594

36.4

6976

2004

13392

662

4.9

12730

335

2.5

4485

33.5

7818

2005

13593

661

4.9

12932

340

2.5

4085

30.1

8416

2006

14500

685

4.7

13815

363

2.5

4393

30.3

9060

2007

14876

639

4.3

14237

372

2.5

4498

30.2

9367

GR(2002-2007)

4.2%

2.4%

4.3%

4.2%

Source: Note:

Power System Statistics by Planning Power NTDC (31st issue) & KESC letters. Gross Generation of PEPCO includes Export to KESC. Auxiliary losses of IPPs are not included in Gross Generation of PEPCO.

Year

PEPCO

3.2%

8.4%

KESC

9.3%

0.2%

3.6%

6.9%

The figures indicate that PEPCO distribution losses dropped from 18 % to 14.6 % of gross generation during 1999 to 2007. In KESC, distribution losses are significantly high and range from 30.2% to 36.7% during the past 10 years.

2.1.3 System Load Factor The annual load factor depends to a high degree on the composition of loads on the system and how these loads vary seasonally. The load factors for PEPCO and KESC for the period 2002-2007 are tabulated below. These figures have been calculated on the basis of computed energy generation and computed peak demand for the two systems i.e. taking into account the load shedding and excluding import/export of electricity between PEPCO and KESC.

Table 2-2 PEPCO Load Factor (Historical) Period

Computed Gross Computed Peak Load Generation (GWh) Demand (MW) (%)

2001-02

59876

10109

67.6

2002-03

62677

10484

68.2

2003-04

67738

11078

69.8

2004-05

71306

12035

67.6

2005-06

79743

13212

68.9

2006-07

85211

15138

64.3

Factor

Average Load Factor (2001-02 to 2005-06) 68.4 Note: IPPs auxiliary losses are not included. Source: Power System Statistics (31st issue) Planning Department NTDC

Table 2-3 KESC Load Factor (Historical) Period

Gross Generation Peak Demand Load Factor (%) (GWh) (MW)

2001-02

12115

1885

73.4

2002-03

12617

1973

72.9

2003-04

13389

2073

73.7

2004-05

13593

2197

70.6

2005-06

14500

2223

74.5

2006-07

14876

2349

72.3

Average Load Factor (2001-02 to 2006-07) 72.9 st Source: Power System Statistics (31 issue) Planning Department NTDC Load management efforts to reduce or shift industrial loads with non-continuous processes, and other large tube well use at peak, likely have also contributed to load factor improvements.

2.1.4 Demand Side Management Load forecasting must consider changes in both supply-side and demand-side efficiency as a power system expands over time. Supply-side efficiency is concerned with how well the technical and non-technical losses on the transmission and distribution system can be controlled, as well as the relative amount of generator station service consumption and equipment performance. The growing attention to demand-side efficiency is motivated by the cost effectiveness of demand-side management (DSM) in improving the system load factor, and its potential for reducing overall load growth, while maintaining acceptable levels of service.

Benefits of DSM Among the benefits are The potential for deferment or reduction of bulk transmission and generation investment leading to reduced capital cost. The deferment of tariff increases. The reduction of environmental impacts of generation. The decrease in the cost of power as a proportion of production cost in the economy. NTDC has the target to improve the load factor by employing the DSM techniques and by promoting the Industrial share in the composition of system load. It is expected that the load factor of the system shall improve to 71% provided the proposed DSM measures are implemented. The estimated impact of DSM on the load forecast has been considered in Chapter-3 in future projections.

2.2 Energy Share (Province Wise & Category Wise) PEPCO and KESC have detailed statistics on historical electricity sales and number of consumers for various electricity consuming sectors which capture the combined influence of the various factors underlying growth in electricity demand. Some of the salient features of this statistics are summarized in the following paragraphs. Energy Share in Sales (Province –wise) The province-wise share of energy sale for the year 2006-07 is shown below in the form of a pie chart.

Province Wise Share in Energy Sale KESC 13% Sindh excluding KESC 7%

NWFP 12% Punjab 62%

Baluchistan 6%

Figure 2-1 Source: Power System Statistics (31st issue) Planning Department NTDC The province wise share in energy sales (1997-2007) is shown in the following table.

Table 2-4

Historical Province-Wise Energy Sale (GWh) Period

Punjab

Sindh with KESC

Baluchistan

NWFP

Pakistan

1997

25119

9513

1666

6638

42936

1998

25639

10526

1704

6794

44663

1999

25214

10248

1687

6243

43392

2000

27033

10117

1822

6528

45500

2001

28796

10718

2138

6843

48495

2002

30565

10441

2552

7000

50558

2003

32355

10618

2864

6759

52596

2004

35399

11572

3267

7230

57468

2005

37706

12424

3500

7648

61278

2006

42024

13511

3834

8260

67629

2007

45389

14210

3968

8464

72031

AAGR(1997-2007)

6.1%

4.1%

9.1%

2.5%

5.3%

Source:

Power System Statistics by Planning Power NTDC (31st issue)

Energy Share in Sales (Category –wise) Following figure shows category wise share in electricity sales for the year 2006-07.

o th e rs 2 1%

D o m e s tic 38%

A g ric u lt u re 10 %

In d u s t ria l 25%

C o m m e rc ia l 6%

Figure 2-2 Source: Power System Statistics (31st issue) Planning Department NTDC

3

Long-Term (Regression Based) Load Forecast

The long term forecast is determined through regression analysis of past energy consumption trends using a statistical data base for WAPDA and KESC system for the period 1970 to 2006 and other government publications and economic statistics. Following the Grid Code NTDC (clause PC 4.2 of the planning code), three scenarios low, normal and high have been developed considering economic & demographic factors and tariff etc.

3.1 Regression Methodology The forecasts of WAPDA and KESC sales by consumption category are determined by regression equations relating these sales to the growth in a number of independent variables. Regression analysis is concerned with describing and evaluating the relationship between a given variable (often called the explained or dependent variable) and one or more other variables (often called the explanatory or independent variables).

3.1.1 Parameters of Regression Dependent Variables (Y) • Electricity consumption (GWh) for various consumer categories including domestic, commercial, industrial and agriculture. Independent Variables (X) The potential independent variables (demographic and economic) for regression analysis included: •

Total GDP

•

GDP by major sector (agriculture, manufacturing, trade, services, etc.)

•

Electricity revenue per kWh sold by customer class (real price)

•

Number of customers by consumption category

Lag variables In many cases, dependence of variable Y (Dependent Variable) on another Variable X (Independent variable) is not instantaneous. Very often Y responds to X with a lapse of time. Such a lapse of time is called Lag. Dummy Variable Dependence of variable Y (Dependent Variable) is not only influenced by variables which can be quantified on some well defined scale (e.g., income, price, costs, etc.) but also by variables which are essentially qualitative in nature (e.g., sex, race, colour, Change in Government Policy, etc.). Such qualitative variables usually indicate presence or absence of a “quality” by assuming 0 and 1 value and are referred as dummy variables.

3.2 Regression Relationships Within the regression analysis, each of the independent variables (e.g. population, Gross Domestic Product, customers etc) was tested as an explanatory variable for the growth pattern in the dependent variable (Sales). For each combination of dependent and independent variables tested, the analysis calculates the least squares coefficient relating the variables and a number of measures (T-statistics, Minimum Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and minimum probability) of the goodness-of-fit of the proposed equation. One equation was selected for each major consumption category (domestic, commercial, industrial and agriculture) for each utility (PEPCO and KESC). In general the equations were selected on the basis of the equation displaying the “bestfit” between the sales and the appropriate independent variable.

3.3 Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class There are four elasticities corresponding to GDP, Real Price, Lag and Customers for each customer category Domestic, Commercial, Agriculture and Industrial as shown in Table 3-1.

3.3.1 Low, Normal and High Scenarios. The modified long term elasticity of each sector was gradually reduced or increased depending upon the scenario which is explained in detail in the Tables 3-2 to Table 3-4.

3.4 Projections of Independent Variables Projections of the key independent variables used in the long-term regression model are as under: GDP Growth by Sector (Country) Projected GDP growth rates used in preparing load forecast of energy demand are based on forecast prepared by planning commission. This economic forecast provides growth rates by economic sector. The regression equations which utilize income as an independent variable (GDP as a proxy variable for income) implicitly assume that historical income and electricity consumption ratio would be applicable in the future. Given the low relative levels of income measured in per capita terms and the fact that the per capita income would remain in a low band which characterizes developing countries of similar economic structure, it is assumed that income-to-energy consumption relationships will not change appreciable over the forecast period. The projections of GDP obtained from Planning & Development Division are presented in Table 3-5. Electricity Prices Real changes in future electricity prices will be determined by the cash flow requirements of the utilities, and this, in turn, will be dependent on the planned capital investment program. Until the investment program and related revenues are determined, it is not possible to estimate the impact on electricity sales of real price changes. In this load forecast, real price changes have been assumed to be zero, in line with historical tariff increases.

Domestic Customers The projection of population, domestic and agriculture customer are presented in Table 3-6. As far as population is concerned, its growth rate for the last three years was 1.9% and it is applied throughout the forecast period. The domestic customers are adjusted in order to capture the number of domestic customers present in a single bulk supply connection for a housing scheme. Electrified Households. In 1980 the electrified household percentage was 30% and in 1998 the electrified households were 70% as reported in the respective census reports. However, the percentage of electrified households is estimated to be 97% in the year 2030 as shown in Table 3-6. Agricultural Customers The average annual growth rate of last ten years is 3.39 % which has been used throughout the regression period as shown in Table 3-6.

3.5 Regression Results Once the growth rates in the independent variables (domestic & agricultural customers, category wise GDP, etc) are determined, the growth rates for the various consumption categories are readily calculated using the general equation for the regression analysis given below: Y T = YT-1 * (1+GR of G)b *(1+GR of R)C * (1+GR of L) d *(1+GR of C)e Where in the above equation Y

Represents electricity demand (Sales GWh)

GR

Represents Growth Rate

G, R, L,C

Represent independent variable (GDP, Real Price, Lag and Customers respectively)

T

Represents current year or time period,

T-1

Represents previous year or time period,

b, c, d, e

Represent elasticities of independent variables. (GDP, Real Price, Lag and Customers respectively)

The category-wise sale (GWh) forecast for the low, normal, and high scenarios of the country are shown in Table 3-7, Table 3-8 and Table 3-9 respectively with the categorywise sale (GWh) break up between PEPCO and KESC on the basis of historical share of each category for the last five years.

3.6 Generation Forecast In order to work out generation forecast from the energy sale, the important parameters are power system losses i.e. distribution losses, transmission losses, auxiliary consumption and load factor for PEPCO and KESC system. These are discussed as follows:

3.6.1 Projection of Losses PEPCO System The present level of PEPCO transmission losses is 6.6% and these losses have been gradually reduced to 3% from year 2007-08 up to the year 2017-18. Further these are kept constant for the rest of the forecast period. However the present level of distribution losses is 14.8%. These losses are reduced gradually upon 8% from the year 2007-08 to 2017-18, and then kept constant up to the year 2029-30. Auxiliary consumption in PEPCO system at present is 3.5% and is kept constant throughout the forecast period. These losses reduction pattern is presented in Tables 3-10 to 3-12.

KESC System Present level of transmission losses (2.5%) is kept constant throughout the forecast period. The distribution losses have been reduced gradually from 29.7% to 17.5% upto the year 2014-15 and then these are kept constant for the rest of the forecast period. Auxiliary consumption in KESC system is kept 4% constant throughout the forecast period. These are presented in Tables 3-13 to 3-15.

3.6.2 Projections of Load Factor PEPCO System The average load factor from the year 2001-02 to 2005-06 comes out to be 68.4% (Table 2-2). As per discussions in different meetings with Deputy Chief Energy Wing Planning & Development Division, acting Chief Energy Wing Planning & Development Division and Manager Generation Planning, the current load factor is kept constant (65.1%) for the next one years and after that it is increased upto 68% in the year 2013-14 and then it is kept constant for the rest of the forecast period. The projections of load factor for PEPCO are shown in Tables 3-10 to 3-12.

KESC System The base case load factor 73.6% is reduced gradually to 65% in the year 2020-21 and then it is kept constant for the rest of the forecast period as per decision in the meeting with Advisor to KESC on planning and energy. These projections are shown in Tables 3-13 to 3-15.

3.7 Forecast Results Based on the above system parameters, forecasts of computed energy sale, generation and peak demand have been developed for PEPCO, KESC and Country. Three scenarios, Low, Normal and High for PEPCO system, are shown in Table 3-10, Table 3-11 and Table 3-12 respectively. Three scenarios, Low, Normal and High for KESC system, are shown in Table 3-13, Table 3-14 and Table 3-15 respectively. Three scenarios, Low, Normal and High for the Country are shown in Table 3-16, Table 3-17 and Table 3-18 respectively.

3.8 Forecast with DSM The impact of DSM on the forecast considering a load factor improvement of 71%, with the proposed DSM measures, is presented year wise in Table 3-19.

3.9 Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales) The constitution of loads provides vital information to predict the shape of daily, monthly and annual load curves. The over all load factor of a system having greater percentage of domestic load is always less than a system having greater percentage of industrial load. In addition to this, the economic well being and financial status of a country is assessed from the constitution of loads i.e. what nature of industrial development is taking place in the country. In this connection, it is worth while to highlight the composition of loads at various intervals of the forecast period from 2008 to 2030 in the form of pie chart given in figure 3-1.

Table 3-1

Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class Sales Category

Variables

Domestic

GDP Per Capita Real-Price Domestic Sales lag (-2) Domestic Customers Lag (-1) Dummy Constant

0.7226 -0.1375 0.3287 0.7057 0.0000 -11.242

Commercial

GDP-Commercial Real-Price Lag (-1) Commercial Sales Lag (-2) Commercial Customers Dummy Constant

1.4009 -0.5453 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 -11.239

Industrial

Industrial GDP Per Capita Real Price With Self Generation Industrial Sales lag Dummy Constant

1.30922 -0.44205 0.00000 0.24732 -4.14178

Agriculture

GDP-Agriculture Real-Price Agriculture Sales lag Agricultural Customers Lag (-2) Dummy Constant

1.16506 -0.28023 0.00000 0.73473 -0.24805 -14.4201

Elasticities

Figures in the brackets are corresponding Lag values These elasticity coefficients are calculated by Regression Analysis using the software E-Views on the basis of 1970 to 2006 data. Dummy variable minimizes the unevenness of the curve at rare places.

Table 3-2

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Low Year 1 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

GDP Short - term Elasticities(Used)

Dom 2 0.7226 0.7204 0.7183 0.7162 0.7140 0.7119 0.7097 0.7076 0.7055 0.7033 0.7012 0.6991 0.6969 0.6948 0.6926 0.6905 0.6884 0.6862 0.6841 0.6819 0.6798 0.6777 0.6755 0.6734 0.6713

Com 3 1.4009 1.3683 1.3356 1.3030 1.2703 1.2377 1.2050 1.1724 1.1397 1.1071 1.0744 1.0418 1.0092 0.9765 0.9439 0.9112 0.8786 0.8459 0.8133 0.7806 0.7480 0.7153 0.6827 0.6501 0.6174

Ind 4 1.3092 1.2963 1.2835 1.2706 1.2577 1.2448 1.2319 1.2190 1.2061 1.1933 1.1804 1.1675 1.1546 1.1417 1.1288 1.1160 1.1031 1.0902 1.0773 1.0644 1.0515 1.0387 1.0258 1.0129 1.0000

Agri 5 1.1651 1.1582 1.1513 1.1444 1.1376 1.1307 1.1238 1.1169 1.1100 1.1032 1.0963 1.0894 1.0825 1.0757 1.0688 1.0619 1.0550 1.0481 1.0413 1.0344 1.0275 1.0206 1.0138 1.0069 1.0000

Dom 6 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287

Lag Elasticities

Com 7 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826

Ind 8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Agri 9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

GDP Long - Term Elasticities

Dom 10 1.0764 1.0733 1.0701 1.0669 1.0637 1.0605 1.0573 1.0541 1.0510 1.0478 1.0446 1.0414 1.0382 1.0350 1.0318 1.0287 1.0255 1.0223 1.0191 1.0159 1.0127 1.0096 1.0064 1.0032 1.0000

Com 11 2.2690 2.2161 2.1633 2.1104 2.0575 2.0046 1.9518 1.8989 1.8460 1.7931 1.7403 1.6874 1.6345 1.5816 1.5288 1.4759 1.4230 1.3701 1.3173 1.2644 1.2115 1.1586 1.1058 1.0529 1.0000

Ind 12 1.3092 1.2963 1.2835 1.2706 1.2577 1.2448 1.2319 1.2190 1.2061 1.1933 1.1804 1.1675 1.1546 1.1417 1.1288 1.1160 1.1031 1.0902 1.0773 1.0644 1.0515 1.0387 1.0258 1.0129 1.0000

1. Elasticities for Domestic, Commercial, Industrial and Agriculture Sectors are assumed to decrease linearly to unity assuming saturation, by the year 2030. 2. The exercise has been conducted in consultation with Chief Economist, Planning & Development Division and Energy Wing,Planning Commission of Pakistan. 3. The decreasing pattern of elasticities was suggested by multiple regression analysis conducted for different time series and a similar study conducted by "Ms. Standard and Poors" ( McGraw Hills Study Division; A Study for Planning and Development Division, Pakistan). 4. GDP short term elasticities for the year 2005-06 and lag elasticities are taken from table 3-1. 5. The long term elasticities for the year 2005-06 are calculated using formula, Long term elasticity = short term elasticity / (1-lag elasticity) 6. The short term elasticities (2006-07 to 2029-30) are converted using the formula, short term elasticity = long term elasticity * (1- lag elasticity)

Agri 13 1.1651 1.1582 1.1513 1.1444 1.1376 1.1307 1.1238 1.1169 1.1100 1.1032 1.0963 1.0894 1.0825 1.0757 1.0688 1.0619 1.0550 1.0481 1.0413 1.0344 1.0275 1.0206 1.0138 1.0069 1.0000

Table 3-3

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Normal Year 1 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 1. 2. 3. 4.

GDP Short - term Elasticities(Used)

Dom 2 0.7226 0.7204 0.7183 0.7162 0.7140 0.7119 0.7097 0.7076 0.7055 0.7033 0.7012 0.6991 0.6969 0.6948 0.6926 0.6905 0.6884 0.6862 0.6841 0.6819 0.6798 0.6777 0.6755 0.6734 0.6713

Com 3 1.4009 1.3683 1.3356 1.3030 1.2703 1.2377 1.2050 1.1724 1.1397 1.1071 1.0744 1.0418 1.0092 0.9765 0.9439 0.9112 0.8786 0.8459 0.8133 0.7806 0.7480 0.7153 0.6827 0.6501 0.6174

Ind 4 1.3092 1.3172 1.3251 1.3331 1.3410 1.3490 1.3569 1.3649 1.3728 1.3808 1.3887 1.3967 1.4046 1.4126 1.4205 1.4285 1.4364 1.4444 1.4523 1.4603 1.4682 1.4762 1.4841 1.4921 1.5000

Agri 5 1.1651 1.1582 1.1513 1.1444 1.1376 1.1307 1.1238 1.1169 1.1100 1.1032 1.0963 1.0894 1.0825 1.0757 1.0688 1.0619 1.0550 1.0481 1.0413 1.0344 1.0275 1.0206 1.0138 1.0069 1.0000

Dom 6 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287

Lag Elasticities

Com 7 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826

Ind 8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Agri 9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

GDP Long - Term Elasticities

Dom 10 1.0764 1.0733 1.0701 1.0669 1.0637 1.0605 1.0573 1.0541 1.0510 1.0478 1.0446 1.0414 1.0382 1.0350 1.0318 1.0287 1.0255 1.0223 1.0191 1.0159 1.0127 1.0096 1.0064 1.0032 1.0000

Com 11 2.2690 2.2161 2.1633 2.1104 2.0575 2.0046 1.9518 1.8989 1.8460 1.7931 1.7403 1.6874 1.6345 1.5816 1.5288 1.4759 1.4230 1.3701 1.3173 1.2644 1.2115 1.1586 1.1058 1.0529 1.0000

Ind 12 1.3092 1.3172 1.3251 1.3331 1.3410 1.3490 1.3569 1.3649 1.3728 1.3808 1.3887 1.3967 1.4046 1.4126 1.4205 1.4285 1.4364 1.4444 1.4523 1.4603 1.4682 1.4762 1.4841 1.4921 1.5000

Elasticities for Domestic Commercial and Agriculture Sectors are assumed to decrease linearly to unity by the year 2030. Assuming a great cussion in the industrial sector throughout the forecast period, its long term elasticity is increased to 1.5 in the year 2029-30. The exercise has been conducted in consultation with Chief Economist, Planning & Development Division and Energy Wing,Planning Commission of Pakistan. The decreasing pattern of elasticities was suggested by multiple regression analysis conducted for different time series and a similar study conducted by "Ms. Standard and Poors" ( McGraw Hills Study Division; A Study for Planning and Development Division, Pakistan). 5. GDP short term elasticities for the year 2005-06 and lag elasticities are taken from table 3-1. 6. The long term elasticities for the year 2005-06 are calculated using formula, Long term elasticity = short term elasticity / (1-lag elasticity) 7. The short term elasticities (2006-07 to 2029-30) are converted using the formula, short term elasticity = long term elasticity * (1- lag elasticity)

Agri 13 1.1651 1.1582 1.1513 1.1444 1.1376 1.1307 1.1238 1.1169 1.1100 1.1032 1.0963 1.0894 1.0825 1.0757 1.0688 1.0619 1.0550 1.0481 1.0413 1.0344 1.0275 1.0206 1.0138 1.0069 1.0000

Table 3-4

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-High Year 1 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 1. 2. 3. 4.

GDP Short - term Elasticities(Used)

Dom 2 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226 0.7226

Com 3 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009 1.4009

Ind 4 1.3092 1.3193 1.3293 1.3393 1.3494 1.3594 1.3694 1.3795 1.3895 1.3995 1.4095 1.4196 1.4296 1.4396 1.4497 1.4597 1.4697 1.4798 1.4898 1.4998 1.5099 1.5199 1.5299 1.5400 1.5500

Agri 5 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651

Dom 6 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287 0.3287

Lag Elasticities

Com 7 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826 0.3826

Ind 8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Agri 9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

GDP Long - Term Elasticities

Dom 10 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764 1.0764

Com 11 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690 2.2690

Ind 12 1.3092 1.3193 1.3293 1.3393 1.3494 1.3594 1.3694 1.3795 1.3895 1.3995 1.4095 1.4196 1.4296 1.4396 1.4497 1.4597 1.4697 1.4798 1.4898 1.4998 1.5099 1.5199 1.5299 1.5400 1.5500

Elasticities for Domestic Commercial and Agriculture Sectors are kept constant considering saturation upto 2030. Assuming a great cussion in the industrial sector throughout the forecast period, its long term elasticity is increased to 1.55 in the year 2029-30. The exercise has been conducted in consultation with Chief Economist, Planning & Development Division and Energy Wing,Planning Commission of Pakistan. The decreasing pattern of elasticities was suggested by multiple regression analysis conducted for different time series and a similar study conducted by "Ms. Standard and Poors" ( McGraw Hills Study Division; A Study for Planning and Development Division, Pakistan). 5. GDP short term elasticities for the year 2005-06 and lag elasticities are taken from table 3-1. 6. The long term elasticities for the year 2005-06 are calculated using formula, Long term elasticity = short term elasticity / (1-lag elasticity) 7. The short term elasticities (2006-07 to 2029-30) are converted using the formula, short term elasticity = long term elasticity * (1- lag elasticity)

Agri 13 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651 1.1651

Table 3-5

Projected GDP Growth Rates Year 2005-06

Gross Domestic Product (%)

GDP Per Capita (%)

Total

Commercial

Industrial

Agriculture

6.6

6.7

9.3

3.3

Total

Industrial

2006-07

7.3

7.4

9.9

3.9

5.4

7.4

2007-08

7.6

7.7

10.0

4.2

5.6

7.9

2008-09

8.0

8.1

10.3

4.6

6.0

8.0

2009-10

8.0

8.1

10.2

4.6

6.0

8.3

2010-11

8.0

8.1

10.1

4.6

6.0

8.2

2011-12

7.5

7.6

9.4

4.1

5.5

8.1

2012-13

7.5

7.6

9.4

4.1

5.5

7.4

2013-14

7.5

7.6

9.3

4.1

5.5

7.4

2014-15

7.5

7.6

9.2

4.1

5.5

7.3

2015-16

7.0

7.1

8.6

3.6

5.0

7.2

2016-17

7.0

7.1

8.5

3.6

5.2

6.8

2017-18

7.0

7.1

8.4

3.6

5.2

6.7

2018-19

7.0

7.1

8.4

3.6

5.2

6.6

2019-20

7.0

7.1

8.3

3.6

5.2

6.6

2020-21

6.8

6.9

8.0

3.4

5.0

6.5

2021-22

6.8

6.9

8.0

3.4

5.0

6.2

2022-23

6.8

6.9

7.9

3.4

5.0

6.2

2023-24

6.5

6.6

7.6

3.2

4.7

6.1

2024-25

6.5

6.6

7.5

3.2

4.7

5.8

2025-26

6.5

6.6

7.5

3.2

4.7

5.7

2026-27

6.0

6.1

6.9

2.7

4.4

5.9

2027-08

6.0

6.1

6.9

2.7

4.4

5.3

2028-29

6.0

6.1

6.9

2.7

4.4

5.3

2029-30

6.0

6.1

6.8

2.7

4.4

5.3

ACGR (2007-30)

7.0

7.1

8.4

3.6

5.2

6.7

Source:-

Planning and Development Division-Energy Wing (Ref: Fax dated 23-9-2007).

Table 3-6 (a)

Actual Population and Customers-Country (1970-2007) Fiscal Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Population (Millions) 60.5 62.9 65.3 66.9 68.9 71.0 73.2 75.4 77.8 80.1 82.6 85.1 87.7 90.3 93.0 95.7 98.4 101.2 104.0 106.8 109.7 112.6 115.5 118.5 121.5 124.5 127.5 130.6 133.5 136.7 137.5 140.4 143.2 146.8 149.7 152.5 155.4 158.2 GR(2005-07)

Domestic Customers

GR (%) 3.9 3.9 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 0.6 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

No. 1001355 1079120 1168700 1258735 1358546 1476377 1614251 1792657 1988342 2192409 2446122 2882760 3175192 3462075 3763925 4041867 4367026 4733578 5190717 5777465 6213113 6600380 7053833 7498804 7943668 8324139 8755937 9165447 9501865 10005352 10783360 11314947 11776806 12350278 13086453 13888765 14837490 15563723 GR(2000-07)

GR(%) 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.9 8.7 9.3 11.1 10.9 10.3 11.6 17.9 10.1 9.0 8.7 7.4 8.0 8.4 9.7 11.3 7.5 6.2 6.9 6.3 5.9 4.8 5.2 4.7 3.7 5.3 7.8 4.9 4.1 4.9 6.0 6.1 6.8 4.9 5.4%

House Hold Size No. 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80

House Holds Domestic Customer Adjusted

Electrified Households

Adj. Factor 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36

% 16.39 17.00 17.72 18.63 19.52 20.58 21.83 23.53 25.32 27.09 29.33 33.54 35.86 37.96 40.09 41.83 43.94 46.32 49.42 53.54 56.07 58.03 60.45 62.65 64.74 66.20 67.99 69.50 70.48 72.47 72.53 74.53 76.06 77.80 80.84 84.23 88.30 90.98

No 8894118 9242647 9604412 9835294 10135294 10445588 10766176 11094118 11433824 11783824 12144118 12513235 12892647 13279412 13670588 14069118 14472059 14879412 15292647 15711765 16133824 16560294 16991176 17426471 17864706 18307353 18751471 19200000 19629412 20101471 20220588 20647059 21058824 21588235 22014706 22426471 22852941 23264706

No 1457973 1571199 1701627 1832718 1978043 2149605 2350349 2610109 2895026 3192148 3561554 4197299 4623080 5040781 5480275 5884958 6358390 6892090 7557684 8411989 9046293 9610153 10270381 10918259 11565981 12119946 12748644 13344891 13834715 14567793 14665370 15388328 16016456 16796378 17797576 18888720 20178986 21166663

Agricultural Customers No. 46949 50728 52882 59007 64258 70249 77117 82424 90961 96294 102579 104745 111904 115132 119048 121697 125849 131006 137861 144920 150620 153231 156461 154300 158962 163556 166365 168521 171903 174476 176004 182005 185683 193487 200418 202531 222394 235212 GR(1997-2007)

GR(%) 8.05 4.25 11.58 8.90 9.32 9.78 6.88 10.36 5.86 6.53 2.11 6.83 2.88 3.40 2.23 3.41 4.10 5.23 5.12 3.93 1.73 2.11 -1.38 3.02 2.89 1.72 1.30 2.01 1.50 0.88 3.41 2.02 4.20 3.58 1.05 9.81 5.76 3.39

Table 3-6 (b)

Projected Population and Customers-Country (2008-2030) Fiscal Year

Population

Domestic Customers

House Hold Size

House Holds Domestic Customer Adjusted

Electrified Households

Agricultural Customers

(Millions)

GR (%)

No.

GR(%)

No.

No

Adj. Factor

No

%

No.

GR(%)

2008

161.2

1.9

16200992

4.1

6.80

23707117

1.36

22033350

92.94

243186

3.39

2009

164.3

1.9

16734747

3.3

6.80

24157941

1.36

22759256

94.21

251430

3.39

2010

167.4

1.9

17152209

2.5

6.80

24617337

1.36

23327004

94.76

259953

3.39

2011

170.6

1.9

17495253

2.0

6.80

25085470

1.36

23793544

94.85

268766

3.39

2012

173.8

1.9

17845158

2.0

6.80

25562506

1.36

24269415

94.94

277877

3.39

2013

177.1

1.9

18202061

2.0

6.80

26048612

1.36

24754804

95.03

287297

3.39

2014

180.5

1.9

18566103

2.0

6.80

26543963

1.36

25249900

95.12

297036

3.39

2015

183.9

1.9

18937425

2.0

6.80

27048733

1.36

25754898

95.22

307106

3.39

2016

187.4

1.9

19316173

2.0

6.80

27563103

1.36

26269996

95.31

317516

3.39

2017

191.0

1.9

19702497

2.0

6.80

28087254

1.36

26795395

95.40

328280

3.39

2018

194.6

1.9

20096547

2.0

6.80

28621372

1.36

27331303

95.49

339409

3.39

2019

198.3

1.9

20498477

2.0

6.80

29165647

1.36

27877929

95.58

350915

3.39

2020

202.1

1.9

20908447

2.0

6.80

29720272

1.36

28435488

95.68

362811

3.39

2021

205.9

1.9

21326616

2.0

6.80

30285445

1.36

29004198

95.77

375110

3.39

2022

209.9

1.9

21753148

2.0

6.80

30861365

1.36

29584282

95.86

387827

3.39

2023

213.8

1.9

22188211

2.0

6.80

31448237

1.36

30175967

95.95

400974

3.39

2024

217.9

1.9

22631976

2.0

6.80

32046269

1.36

30779487

96.05

414567

3.39

2025

222.1

1.9

23084615

2.0

6.80

32655673

1.36

31395076

96.14

428621

3.39

2026

226.3

1.9

23546307

2.0

6.80

33276666

1.36

32022978

96.23

443151

3.39

2027

230.6

1.9

24017233

2.0

6.80

33909468

1.36

32663438

96.33

458174

3.39

2028

235.0

1.9

24497578

2.0

6.80

34554304

1.36

33316706

96.42

473706

3.39

2029

239.4

1.9

24987530

2.0

6.80

35211402

1.36

33983040

96.51

489764

3.39

2030

244.0

1.9

25487280

2.0

6.80

35880996

1.36

34662701

96.60

506367

3.39

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2005-06 and Census reports. The average growth rate of the last three years (1.9%) is applied to population from 2008-30. The average growth rate of the last ten years (3.39%) is applied to agricultural customers from 2008-30. Domestic customers are increased such that 97 % population becomes electrified in the year 2030. An adjustment factor is used to capture the number of domestic customers present in a single bulk supply connection for a housing scheme.

Table 3-7

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO AND KESC)-Low Domestic

Commercial

Industrial

Agriculture

Public Light

Traction

Bulk

Total

Self Generation

Gross Total

Year

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

Sum

2006-07

30110

4008

4456

1023

18283

3676

8410

82

316

65

12

-

3267

789

64854

9643

6820

2146

71674

11789

83463

2007-08

33314

4541

5016

1386

20218

3992

9042

83

299

103

12

-

3493

1088

71393

11193

7519

2366

78912

13559

92471

2008-09

36319

4951

5788

1600

22293

4401

9756

89

316

113

11

-

3872

1206

78356

12360

8290

2609

86646

14969

101615

2009-10

39873

5435

6782

1875

24641

4865

10528

90

364

127

11

-

4324

1347

86525

13739

9164

2884

95689

16622

112311

G.R. (2007-10)

9.6%

9.0%

9.4%

10.0%

6.9%

3.8%

6.9%

14.4%

-3.8%

-

9.3%

8.2%

9.6%

10.4%

9.7%

9.7%

9.6%

10.3%

9.7%

2010-11

43369

5912

2011-12

47119

2012-13

51031

2013-14 2014-15

15.1% 17.4% 7890

2181

27178

5366

11358

92

400

140

11

-

4804

1497

95010

15186

10107

3180

105117

18367

123484

6423

9157

2531

29912

5905

12184

92

439

155

11

-

5330

1661

104152

16767

11124

3500

115276

20267

135543

6956

10572

2922

32634

6443

13063

95

481

171

10

-

5884

1834

113675

18420

12136

3819

125811

22239

148050

55241

7530

12166

3363

35570

7022

14000

99

526

189

10

-

6491

2023

124005

20225

13228

4163

137233

24388

161621

59729

8142

13940

3853

38693

7639

14997

106

575

208

4

-

7149

2228

135087

22175

14389

4528

149476

26703

176178

G.R. (2010-15)

8.4%

8.4%

15.5% 15.5%

9.4%

9.4%

7.3%

3.3%

9.6%

10.4%

-18.5%

-

10.6%

10.6%

9.3%

10.0%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2015-16

64353

8772

15835

4376

42006

8293

15977

113

626

228

4

-

7843

2444

146643

24226

15621

4916

162264

29142

191405

2016-17

69301

9446

17916

4952

45269

8937

17016

120

681

249

4

-

8574

2672

158762

26377

16835

5298

175597

31675

207271

2017-18

74536

10160

20160

5572

48695

9614

18118

128

740

273

4

-

9351

2914

171603

28660

18108

5698

189712

34358

224070

2018-19

80144

10924

22600

6246

52281

10322

19288

136

802

297

4

-

10184

3173

185303

31099

19442

6118

204745

37218

241963

2019-20

86129

11740

25225

6972

56087

11073

20527

145

870

324

4

-

11074

3451

199916

33705

20858

6564

220773

40269

261042

G.R. (2015-20)

7.6%

7.6%

12.6% 12.6%

9.4%

9.4%

6.5%

6.5%

8.6%

9.3%

0.0%

-

9.1%

9.1%

8.2%

8.7%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2020-21

92424

12598

28003

7740

60060

11857

21797

154

940

352

4

-

12011

3743

215239

36444

22335

7028

237574

43473

281047

2021-22

99151

13515

30969

8559

64067

12649

23139

164

1016

382

4

-

12995

4049

231342

39319

23825

7497

255167

46816

301983

2022-23

106306

14490

34104

9426

68290

13482

24559

174

1097

414

4

-

14037

4374

248396

42361

25396

7992

273792

50352

324144

2023-24

113736

15503

37334

10319

72664

14346

26007

184

1180

447

4

-

15114

4709

266039

45508

27022

8503

293061

54012

347073 370882

2024-25

121651

16582

40719

11254

77032

15208

27534

195

1268

482

4

-

16233

5058

284441

48780

28646

9015

313088

57794

G.R. (2020-25)

7.2%

7.2%

10.1% 10.1%

9.4%

9.4%

6.0%

6.0%

7.8%

8.3%

-0.4%

-

7.9%

7.9%

7.3%

7.7%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2025-26

130013

17722

44217

12221

81525

16095

29145

206

1361

519

4

-

17396

5421

303662

52184

30317

9540

333979

61724

395703

2026-27

138482

18876

47688

13180

86220

17022

30691

217

1454

555

4

-

18573

5787

323112

55639

32063

10090

355176

65729

420904

2027-28

147451

20099

51246

14164

90601

17887

32313

229

1552

594

4

-

19763

6158

342930

59130

33692

10603

376622

69732

446354

2028-29

156813

21375

54819

15151

95145

18784

34015

241

1653

633

4

-

20982

6538

363430

62722

35382

11134

398813

73856

472669

2029-30

166737

22728

58447

16154

99855

19714

35800

253

1759

674

4

-

22243

6931

384844

66454

37134

11685

421978

78139

500117

G.R. (2025-30)

6.5%

6.5%

7.5%

7.5%

9.4%

9.4%

5.4%

5.4%

6.8%

6.9%

-2.2%

-

6.5%

6.5%

6.2%

6.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

109.4%

G.R.(2007-30)

7.7%

7.8%

11.8% 12.7%

7.7%

7.6%

6.5%

5.0%

7.8%

10.7%

-5.2%

-

8.7%

9.9%

8.0%

8.8%

7.6%

7.6%

8.0%

8.6%

8.1%

Note:

Energy Shed in the base year has been added in the major customer categories proportionally.

Table 3-8

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO AND KESC)-Normal Domestic

Commercial

Industrial

Agriculture

Public Light

Bulk

Self Generation

Gross Total

Year

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

Total

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

Sum

30110

4008

4456

1023

18283

3676

8410

82

316

65

381

12

-

3267

789

64854

9643

6820

2146

71674

11789

83463

2007-08

33314

4541

5016

1386

20282

4004

9042

83

299

103

402

12

-

3497

1090

71462

11207

7542

2373

79004

13580

92585

2008-09

36319

4951

5788

1600

22472

4436

9756

89

316

113

429

11

-

3884

1210

78546

12399

8357

2630

86903

15029

101932

5435

6782

1875

127

491

2009-10

39873 9.8%

25004

4936

10528

90

364

11.0%

10.3%

7.8%

3.3%

4.9%

2010-11

43369

5912

7890

2011-12

47119

6423

9157

2181

27805

5489

11358

92

400

140

2531

30901

6101

12184

92

439

155

2012-13

51031

6956

10572

2922

34066

6725

13063

95

481

2013-14

55241

7530

12166

3363

37576

7418

14000

99

526

3853

10.7% 15.0% 22.4%

PEPCO KESC PEPCO

Total

2006-07

G.R. (2007-10)

KESC PEPCO

Traction

11

-

4349

1355

86913

13818

9298

2926

96211

16744

112955

-2.2%

-

10.0%

19.8%

10.3%

12.7%

10.9%

10.9%

10.3%

12.4%

10.6%

541

11

-

4846

1510

95680

15324

10340

3254

106020

18577

124597

595

11

-

5398

1682

105209

16983

11491

3616

116700

20600

137300

171

652

10

-

5982

1864

115205

18733

12668

3987

127873

22720

150593

189

715

10

-

6628

2065

126147

20664

13974

4397

140121

25061

165182

208

783

4

181018

24.9% 8.9%

2014-15

59729

8142

13940

41418

8177

14997

106

575

G.R. (2010-15)

8.4%

8.4%

15.5% 15.5%

9.4%

9.4%

7.3%

3.3%

9.6%

-

7335

2285

137998

22771

15403

4847

153401

27618

-

11.0%

11.0%

9.7%

10.5%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2015-16

64353

8772

15835

4376

45622

9007

15977

113

626

228

854

9.4%

4

-

8089

2520

150505

25017

16966

5339

167471

30355

197826

2016-17

69301

9446

17916

4952

49894

9850

17016

120

681

249

931

4

-

8889

2770

163701

27388

18554

5839

182256

33227

215483

2017-18

74536

10160

20160

5572

54523

10764

18118

128

740

2018-19

80144

10924

22600

6246

59535

11754

19288

136

802

273

1012

4

-

9748

3038

177829

29934

20276

6381

198105

36315

234420

297

1100

4

-

10678

3327

193050

32685

22140

6967

215190

39652

2019-20

86129

11740

25225

6972

65039

12840

20527

145

254842

870

324

1194

4

-

11684

3641

209477

35662

24186

7611

233663

43273

276937

10.4% 9.8% -18.5%

G.R. (2015-20)

7.6%

7.6%

12.6% 12.6%

9.4%

9.4%

6.5%

6.5%

8.6%

9.3%

8.8%

0.0%

-

9.8%

9.8%

8.7%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2020-21

92424

12598

28003

7740

70993

14016

21797

154

940

352

1293

4

-

12756

3975

226917

38835

26401

8308

253318

47143

300461

2021-22

99151

13515

30969

8559

77222

15246

23139

164

1016

382

1399

4

-

13891

4329

245394

42195

28717

9037

274111

51232

325343

2022-23

106306

14490

34104

9426

84037

16591

24559

174

1097

414

1511

4

-

15109

4708

265216

45804

31252

9834

296468

55638

352106

2023-24

113736

15503

37334

10319

91373

18039

26007

184

1180

447

1627

4

-

16388

5107

286022

49599

33980

10693

320002

60292

380294

2024-25

121651

16582

40719

11254

98991

19543

27534

195

1268

482

1750

4

-

17729

5524

307896

53581

36813

11584

344709

65165

409874

G.R. (2020-25)

7.2%

7.2%

10.1% 10.1%

9.4%

9.4%

6.0%

6.0%

7.8%

8.3%

8.0%

-0.4%

-

8.7%

8.7%

8.0%

8.5%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2025-26

130013

17722

44217

12221

107145

21153

29145

206

1361

519

1879

4

-

19141

5964

331027

57786

39845

12539

370872

70324

441196

2026-27

138482

18876

47688

13180

116021

22905

30691

217

1454

555

2009

4

-

20603

6420

354942

62154

43145

13577

398088

75732

473820

2027-28

147451

20099

51246

14164

124645

24608

32313

229

1552

594

2145

4

-

22082

6881

379293

66574

46353

14587

425645

81160

506805

2028-29

156813

21375

54819

15151

133963

26448

34015

241

1653

633

2286

4

-

23626

7362

404892

71209

49818

15677

454709

86886

541595

2029-30

166737

22728

58447

16154

144032

28436

35800

253

1759

674

2432

4

-

25252

7869

432030

76113

53562

16855

485592

92968

578560

G.R. (2025-30)

6.5%

6.5%

7.5%

7.5%

9.4%

9.4%

5.4%

5.4%

6.8%

6.9%

6.8%

-2.2%

-

7.3%

7.3%

7.0%

7.3%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

109.4%

G.R.(2007-30)

7.7%

7.8%

11.8% 12.7%

9.4%

9.3%

6.5%

5.0%

7.8%

10.7% 8.4%

-5.2%

-

9.3%

10.5%

8.6%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

8.7%

9.4%

8.8%

Note:

Energy Shed in the base year has been added in the major customer categories proportionally.

Table 3-9

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO AND KESC)-High Domestic

Commercial

Industrial

Agriculture

Public Light

Traction

Bulk

Year

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC PEPCO

2005-06

27671

3852

3860

986

17002

3285

8066

78

279

74

13

0

3032

2006-07

30110

4008

4456

1023

18283

3676

8410

82

316

65

12

-

2007-08

33322

4542

5040

1393

20288

4005

9047

83

300

103

12

-

2008-09

36341

4954

5861

1620

22490

4440

9771

89

316

114

11

2009-10

25040

4944

10557

91

366

128

Total

Self Generation

Gross Total

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

Sum

983

59923

9258

6317

1988

66240

11246

77486

3267

789

64854

9643

6820

2146

71674

11789

83463

3502

1091

71510

11218

7545

2374

79055

13592

92647

-

3897

1214

78686

12430

8363

2632

87050

15062

102112

11

-

4378

1364

87224

13888

9312

2930

96536

16819

113355

39921

5442

6951

1921

G.R. (2007-10)

9.6%

9.0%

15.8%

18.2%

9.4%

10.0%

7.0%

3.9%

7.0%

14.6%

-3.8%

-

9.6%

8.5%

9.8%

10.7%

10.2%

10.2%

9.9%

10.6%

10.0%

2010-11

43454

5923

8213

2270

27869

5502

11407

92

403

142

11

-

4901

1527

96257

15456

10364

3261

106621

18717

125338

2011-12

47252

6441

9714

2685

31002

6121

12256

93

445

158

11

-

5491

1711

106171

17208

11529

3628

117700

20836

138536

2012-13

51229

6983

11473

3171

34212

6754

13166

95

490

176

10

-

6131

1910

116712

19090

12723

4004

129435

23094

152529

2013-14

55523

7568

13556

3747

37782

7459

14142

100

539

196

10

-

6856

2136

128408

21207

14050

4421

142459

25628

168087

2014-15

60117

8194

16009

4425

41701

8233

15187

107

595

219

4

-

7671

2390

141283

23568

15508

4880

156791

28448

185239

G.R. (2010-15)

8.5%

8.5%

18.2%

18.2%

9.4%

9.4%

7.5%

3.5%

10.1%

11.2%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2015-16

64865

8842

18785

5192

46000

9082

16218

115

155090

26142

17106

5383

172197

31525

203722

10.2% 11.4% -18.5% 653

243

4

-

11.9% 11.9% 8565

2669

2016-17

69965

9537

22038

6091

50381

9947

17319

123

719

271

4

-

9549

2976

169976

28943

18736

5896

188712

34839

223551

2017-18

75380

10275

25792

7128

55143

10887

18495

131

790

302

4

-

10645

3317

186250

32040

20506

6453

206757

38493

245250

2018-19

81206

11069

30182

8342

60313

11907

19751

140

870

336

4

-

11879

3701

204206

35496

22429

7058

226635

42554

269189

959

375

4135

224070

39364

24547

7725

248617

47089

295706

9.7%

10.8%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

245730

43638

26846

8448

272576

52087

324663

2019-20

87450

11920

35287

9753

66009

13032

21093

149

G.R. (2015-20)

7.8%

7.8%

17.1%

17.1%

9.4%

9.4%

6.8%

6.8%

2020-21

94042

12819

41147

11372

72191

14252

22474

159

10.0% 11.4% 1056

419

4

-

13269

0.0%

-

11.6% 11.6%

4

-

14817

4617

2021-22

101119

13783

47962

13256

78678

15533

23946

169

1164

468

4

-

16545

5155

269419

48366

29259

9207

298678

57573

356251

2022-23

108680

14814

55849

15436

85799

16939

25515

181

1285

524

4

-

18492

5762

295624

53656

31907

10041

327531

63696

391227

2023-24

116563

15889

64768

17901

93491

18457

27125

192

1416

585

4

-

20642

6432

324010

59457

34767

10941

358777

70397

429174

1563

655

7179

355033

65868

37748

11879

392780

77747

470527

9.6%

10.8%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

389081

72982

40949

12886

430029

85868

515897

2024-25

125000

17039

75084

20752

101506

20040

28837

204

G.R. (2020-25)

7.4%

7.4%

16.3%

16.3%

9.4%

9.4%

6.5%

6.5%

2025-26

133956

18259

86906

24020

110114

21739

30656

217

10.3% 11.8% 1725

733

4

-

23040

-0.4%

-

11.7% 11.7%

4

-

25719

8014

2026-27

143060

19500

99915

27615

119517

23596

32407

229

1898

816

4

-

28632

8922

425431

80678

44445

13986

469876

94664

564541

2027-28

152747

20821

114803

31730

128686

25406

34258

242

2089

910

4

-

31825

9917

464412

89026

47855

15059

512267

104085

616353

2028-29

162906

22206

131569

36364

138626

27368

36214

256

2300

1015

4

-

35365

11020

506983

98228

51552

16223

558535

114451

672986

2029-30

173728

23681

150750

41665

149406

29496

38282

271

2534

1132

4

-

39340

12258

554044

108504

55560

17484

609604

125988

735592

G.R. (2025-30)

6.8%

6.8%

15.0%

15.0%

9.4%

9.4%

5.8%

5.8%

10.2% 11.6%

-2.2%

-

11.3% 11.3%

9.3%

10.5%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

109.4%

G.R.(2007-30)

7.9%

8.0%

16.5%

17.5%

9.6%

9.5%

6.8%

5.3%

9.5%

-5.2%

-

11.4% 12.7%

9.8%

11.1%

9.5%

9.5%

9.8%

10.8%

9.9%

Note:

13.2%

Energy Shed in the base year has been added in the major customer categories proportionally.

Table 3-10

Load Forecast (PEPCO)*-Low Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed Sale

Losses Transmission

Distribution

T & D Losses

Losses

Energy Sent Out

Auxillaries

Total

Energy Generated

Load Factor

Computed Peak Demand

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(%) (GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(%)

(MW)

64854 71393 78356 86525 10.09% 95010 104152 113675 124005 135087 9.3% 146643 158762 171603 185303 199916 8.2% 215239 231342 248396 266039 284441 7.3% 303662 323112 342930 363430 384844 6.2%

6.61 6.28 5.95 5.62

5709 5898 6060 6246

14.81 14.19 13.57 12.96

12797 13330 13819 14387

21.4 20.5 19.5 18.6

18506 19228 19879 20633

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

3028 3292 3568 3892

24.9 24.0 23.0 22.1

21534 22520 23447 24525

6381 6484 6532 6545 6512

12.34 11.72 11.10 10.48 9.86

14862 15290 15620 15902 16112

17.6 16.7 15.7 14.8 13.8

21242 21773 22152 22447 22624

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

4223 4574 4934 5320 5729

21.1 20.2 19.2 18.3 17.3

25465 26348 27086 27766 28353

3.66 3.33 3.00 3.00 3.00

6413 6249 6022 6502 7015

9.24 8.62 8.00 8.00 8.00

16206 16185 16057 17339 18707

12.9 11.9 11.0 11.0 11.0

22619 22435 22079 23842 25722

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

6148 6582 7035 7597 8196

16.4 15.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

28767 29017 29114 31439 33918

3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

7553 8118 8716 9335 9981

8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

20141 21647 23243 24894 26616

11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

27693 29765 31959 34229 36597

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

8824 9485 10184 10907 11662

14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

36518 39250 42143 45136 48258

3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

10655 11338 12033 12753 13504

8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

28415 30235 32089 34007 36011

11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

39070 41573 44122 46760 49515

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

12450 13247 14059 14900 15778

14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

51519 54819 58182 61660 65293

86388 93914 101803 111050 8.73% 120475 130500 140761 151771 163439 8.0% 175410 187779 200718 216741 233834 7.4% 251757 270592 290540 311175 332700 7.3% 355181 377932 401111 425090 450137 6.2%

65.1 65.1 65.2 65.8

5.30 4.97 4.64 4.31 3.98

83360 90622 98235 107158 8.73% 116252 125926 135827 146452 157711 8.0% 169262 181197 193682 209144 225637 7.4% 242933 261107 280356 300268 321038 7.3% 342732 364685 387052 410190 434359 6.2%

15138 16468 17824 19266 8.37% 20728 22235 23805 25479 27437 7.3% 29447 31523 33696 36386 39255 7.4% 42264 45426 48774 52239 55852 7.3% 59626 63445 67337 71362 75567 6.2%

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030) 8.0% 7.4% Note: The base year sale, generation and demand are computed figures excluding export to KESC and including load shedding. Auxiliary consumption of IPPs are added proportionally. *Excluding KESC export.

7.4%

66.4 67.0 67.5 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0

7.2%

Table 3-11

Load Forecast (PEPCO)*-Normal Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed Sale

(GWh) 64854 71462 78546 86913 10.25% 95680 105209 115205 126147 137998 9.7% 150505 163701 177829 193050 209477 8.7% 226917 245394 265216 286022 307896 8.0% 331027 354942 379293 404892 432030 7.0%

Losses Transmission

Distribution

T & D Losses

(%) 6.61 6.28 5.95 5.62

(GWh) 5709 5904 6075 6274

(%) 14.81 14.19 13.57 12.96

(GWh) 12797 13343 13853 14451

(%) 21.4 20.5 19.5 18.6

(GWh) 18506 19247 19927 20725

5.30 4.97 4.64 4.31 3.98

6426 6549 6620 6658 6652

12.34 11.72 11.10 10.48 9.86

14966 15445 15830 16177 16459

17.6 16.7 15.7 14.8 13.8

21392 21994 22450 22834 23111

3.66 3.33 3.00 3.00 3.00

6582 6444 6240 6774 7351

9.24 8.62 8.00 8.00 8.00

16633 16689 16640 18064 19601

12.9 11.9 11.0 11.0 11.0

23215 23133 22880 24838 26952

3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

7962 8611 9306 10036 10804

8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

21233 22962 24817 26764 28811

11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

29196 31573 34123 36800 39615

3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

11616 12455 13309 14208 15160

8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

30975 33213 35491 37887 40426

11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

42591 45668 48801 52094 55586

Energy Sent Out (GWh) 83360 90709 98474 107638 8.89% 117072 127203 137655 148982 161110 8.4% 173720 186834 200709 217888 236429 8.0% 256113 276967 299339 322823 347511 8.0% 373618 400610 428093 456986 487616 7.0%

Losses Total

Auxillaries (%) (GWh) 3.5 3028 3.5 3295 3.5 3577 3.5 3910

(%) 24.9 24.0 23.0 22.1

(GWh) 21534 22542 23504 24635

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

4253 4621 5000 5412 5852

21.1 20.2 19.2 18.3 17.3

25645 26615 27450 28246 28964

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

6310 6787 7291 7915 8588

16.4 15.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

29525 29919 30171 32753 35540

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

9303 10061 10873 11726 12623

14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

38499 41634 44997 48527 52238

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

13571 14552 15550 16600 17712

14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

56162 60220 64351 68694 73298

Energy Generated

Load Factor

Computed Peak Demand

(GWh) 86388 94004 102051 111548 8.89% 121324 131824 142655 154394 166962 8.4% 180030 193621 208000 225803 245017 8.0% 265416 287027 310213 334549 360134 8.0% 387189 415162 443644 473586 505328 7.0%

(%) 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.8

(MW) 15138 16484 17868 19352 8.53% 20874 22460 24126 25919 28029 7.7% 30223 32504 34918 37907 41132 8.0% 44557 48185 52077 56163 60458 8.0% 65000 69696 74477 79503 84832 7.0%

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030) 8.6% 8.0% 8.0% Note: The base year sale, generation and demand are computed figures excluding export to KESC and including load shedding. Auxiliary consumption of IPPs are added proportionally. *Excluding KESC export.

66.4 67.0 67.5 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0

7.8%

Table 3-12

Load Forecast (PEPCO)*-High Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 G.R. (2006-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030)

Computed Sale (GWh) 64854 71510 78686 87224 10.38% 96257 106171 116712 128408 141283 10.1% 155090 169976 186250 204206 224070 9.7% 245730 269419 295624 324010 355033 9.6% 389081 425431 464412 506983 554044 9.3% 9.8%

Losses Transmission

Distribution

T & D Losses

(%) 6.61 6.28 5.95 5.62

(GWh) 5709 5908 6085 6296

(%) 14.81 14.19 13.57 12.96

(GWh) 12797 13352 13878 14503

(%) 21.4 20.5 19.5 18.6

(GWh) 18506 19260 19963 20799

5.30 4.97 4.64 4.31 3.98

6465 6609 6706 6777 6810

12.34 11.72 11.10 10.48 9.86

15057 15586 16038 16467 16851

17.6 16.7 15.7 14.8 13.8

21521 22196 22744 23244 23662

3.66 3.33 3.00 3.00 3.00

6783 6691 6535 7166 7863

9.24 8.62 8.00 8.00 8.00

17139 17329 17428 19108 20967

12.9 11.9 11.0 11.0 11.0

23922 24019 23963 26274 28829

3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

8623 9454 10373 11369 12458

8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

22994 25210 27662 30319 33221

11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

31616 34664 38036 41688 45679

3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

13653 14928 16296 17790 19441

8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

36407 39809 43456 47440 51843

11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

50060 54737 59752 65230 71285

Energy Sent Out (GWh) 83360 90770 98649 108023 9.02% 117778 128366 139456 151652 164945 8.8% 179012 193996 210214 230479 252900 8.9% 277347 304083 333660 365698 400712 9.6% 439141 480168 524165 572213 625329 9.3% 9.2%

Losses Total

Auxillaries (%) (GWh) (%) 3.5 3028 24.9 3.5 3297 24.0 3.5 3583 23.0 3.5 3924 22.1

(GWh) 21534 22557 23546 24723

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

4278 4663 5066 5509 5992

21.1 20.2 19.2 18.3 17.3

25799 26858 27809 28752 29653

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

6503 7047 7636 8372 9186

16.4 15.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

30424 31066 31599 34646 38016

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

10074 11046 12120 13284 14556

14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

41691 45710 50156 54972 60235

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

15951 17442 19040 20785 22715

14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

66012 72179 78792 86015 93999

Energy Generated (GWh) 86388 94067 102233 111947 9.02% 122057 133029 144521 157161 170936 8.8% 185515 201042 217850 238851 262086 8.9% 287421 315129 345780 378981 415268 9.6% 455092 497610 543205 592999 648043 9.3% 9.2%

Note: The base year sale, generation and demand are computed figures excluding export to KESC and including load shedding. Auxiliary consumption of IPPs are added proportionally. *Excluding KESC export.

Load Computed Peak Factor Demand (%) 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.8 66.4 67.0 67.5 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0

(MW) 15138 16495 17899 19422 8.66% 21000 22666 24441 26383 28696 8.1% 31143 33750 36572 40097 43998 8.9% 48251 52902 58048 63622 69713 9.6% 76399 83536 91191 99550 108791 9.3% 9.0%

Table 3-13

Load Forecast (KESC)-Low Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed Sale (GWh) 9643 11193 12360 13739 12.5% 15186 16767 18420 20225 22175 10.0% 24226 26377 28660 31099 33705 8.7% 36444 39319 42361 45508 48780 7.7% 52184 55639 59130 62722 66454 6.4%

Distribution (%) (GWh)

Losses Transmission (%) (GWh)

T & D Losses (%) (GWh)

29.7 28.0 26.5 25.0

4498 4781 4885 5011

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

372 419 453 492

32.1 30.5 29.0 27.5

4870 5201 5338 5503

23.5 22.0 20.5 19.0 17.5

5095 5156 5170 5155 5103

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

532 575 619 666 716

26.0 24.5 23.0 21.5 20.0

5627 5731 5789 5821 5819

17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

5575 6070 6595 7157 7756

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

782 852 925 1004 1088

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

6357 6922 7521 8161 8845

17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

8387 9048 9748 10473 11226

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

1177 1269 1368 1469 1575

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

9564 10318 11116 11942 12800

17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

12009 12804 13607 14434 15293

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

1685 1796 1909 2025 2146

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

13694 14600 15516 16459 17438

Energy Sent Out (GWh) 14513 16394 17698 19242 9.9% 20814 22498 24209 26047 27994 7.8% 30583 33299 36181 39260 42550 8.7% 46008 49636 53477 57451 61580 7.7% 65878 70239 74646 79181 83892 6.4%

Losses Auxiliary Total (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh) 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0

638 683 737 802

36.3 34.5 33.0 31.5

5508 5884 6076 6305

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

867 937 1009 1085 1166

30.0 28.5 27.0 25.5 24.0

6495 6669 6797 6906 6985

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

1274 1387 1508 1636 1773

24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

7632 8309 9028 9797 10618

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

1917 2068 2228 2394 2566

24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

11481 12386 13344 14336 15366

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

2745 2927 3110 3299 3495

24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

16439 17527 18627 19758 20934

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030) 8.8% 7.9% Note: Base year Energy Sale is computed sale including energy shed & excluding export to PEPCO . Base year Energy Generated is computed energy generated by KESC. Base year Peak Demand is computed peak including import from PEPCO.

Energy Generated (GWh)

Load Factor (%)

Computed Peak Demand (MW)

15151 17077 18436 20044 9.8% 21681 23436 25217 27132 29160 7.8% 31857 34686 37688 40896 44323 8.7% 47925 51705 55705 59844 64146 7.7% 68622 73166 77757 82480 87387 6.4%

73.6 73.0 72.4 71.8

2349 2670 2907 3188 10.7% 3478 3792 4116 4468 4845 8.7% 5342 5869 6436 7049 7711 9.7% 8417 9081 9783 10510 11266 7.9% 12052 12850 13656 14485 15347 6.4%

7.9%

71.2 70.5 69.9 69.3 68.7 68.1 67.5 66.8 66.2 65.6 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0

8.5%

Table 3-14

Load Forecast (KESC)-Normal Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed Sale (GWh) 9643 11207 12399 13818 12.7% 15324 16983 18733 20664 22771 10.5% 25017 27388 29934 32685 35662 9.4% 38835 42195 45804 49599 53581 8.5% 57786 62154 66574 71209 76113 7.3%

Distribution (%) (GWh)

Losses Transmission (%) (GWh)

T & D Losses (%) (GWh)

29.7 28.0 26.5 25.0

4498 4787 4901 5040

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

372 420 454 495

32.1 30.5 29.0 27.5

4870 5207 5355 5535

23.5 22.0 20.5 19.0 17.5

5141 5222 5257 5267 5240

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

537 583 630 681 735

26.0 24.5 23.0 21.5 20.0

5678 5805 5887 5947 5975

17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

5757 6303 6889 7522 8207

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

808 884 966 1055 1151

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

6565 7187 7855 8577 9358

17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

8937 9710 10541 11414 12330

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

1254 1362 1479 1601 1730

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

10191 11073 12020 13016 14060

17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

13298 14303 15320 16387 17516

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

1866 2007 2149 2299 2457

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

15164 16310 17470 18686 19973

Energy Losses Energy Sent Out Auxiliary Total Generated (GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (GWh) 14513 16414 17754 19353 10.1% 21002 22789 24620 26611 28746 8.2% 31581 34575 37790 41263 45021 9.4% 49026 53268 57823 62615 67641 8.5% 72949 78465 84043 89895 96086 7.3%

4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0

638 684 740 806

36.4 34.5 33.0 31.5

5508 5891 6095 6341

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

875 950 1026 1109 1198

30.0 28.5 27.0 25.5 24.0

6553 6755 6913 7056 7173

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

1316 1441 1575 1719 1876

24.0 7881 24.0 8628 24.0 9430 24.0 10296 24.0 11234

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

2043 2219 2409 2609 2818

24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

12234 13292 14429 15624 16879

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

3040 3269 3502 3746 4004

24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

18203 19580 20972 22432 23977

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030) 9.4% 8.6% Note: Base year Energy Sale is computed sale including energy shed & excluding export to PEPCO . Base year Energy Generated is computed energy generated by KESC. Base year Peak Demand is computed peak including import from PEPCO.

15151 17098 18494 20159 10.0% 21877 23738 25646 27720 29944 8.2% 32897 36016 39364 42982 46896 9.4% 51069 55487 60232 65224 70460 8.5% 75989 81734 87545 93641 100089 7.3% 8.6%

Load Factor (%)

Computed Peak Demand (MW)

73.6 73.0 72.4 71.8

2349 2673 2916 3206 10.9% 3509 3841 4186 4565 4976 9.2% 5516 6094 6722 7408 8159 10.4% 8969 9745 10578 11455 12374 8.7% 13345 14354 15375 16446 17578 7.3%

71.2 70.5 69.9 69.3 68.7 68.1 67.5 66.8 66.2 65.6 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0

9.1%

Table 3-15

Load Forecast (KESC)-High Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed Sale (GWh) 9643 11218 12430 13888 12.9% 15456 17208 19090 21207 23568 11.2% 26142 28943 32040 35496 39364 10.8% 43638 48366 53656 59457 65868 10.8% 72982 80678 89026 98228 108504 10.5%

Distribution (%) (GWh)

Losses Transmission (%) (GWh)

T & D Losses (%) (GWh)

29.7 28.0 26.5 25.0

4498 4792 4913 5065

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

372 420 455 497

32.1 30.5 29.0 27.5

4870 5212 5368 5563

23.5 22.0 20.5 19.0 17.5

5186 5291 5358 5405 5424

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

542 591 642 698 761

26.0 24.5 23.0 21.5 20.0

5727 5882 5999 6104 6185

17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

6016 6661 7373 8169 9059

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

844 934 1034 1146 1271

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

6860 7595 8408 9315 10330

17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

10042 11130 12348 13683 15158

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

1409 1562 1732 1920 2127

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

11451 12692 14080 15602 17285

17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

16795 18566 20487 22605 24970

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

2356 2605 2874 3171 3503

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

19151 21171 23362 25776 28473

Energy Sent Out (GWh) 14513 16430 17799 19451 10.3% 21183 23090 25090 27310 29753 8.9% 33002 36539 40447 44811 49694 10.8% 55090 61058 67736 75059 83153 10.8% 92133 101849 112388 124005 136977 10.5%

Losses Energy Auxiliary Total Generated (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (GWh) 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0

638 685 742 810

36.4 34.5 33.0 31.5

5508 5897 6110 6373

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

883 962 1045 1138 1240

30.0 28.5 27.0 25.5 24.0

6610 6844 7045 7242 7424

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

1375 1522 1685 1867 2071

24.0 8235 24.0 9118 24.0 10093 24.0 11182 24.0 12400

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

2295 2544 2822 3127 3465

24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

13747 15236 16902 18730 20750

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

3839 4244 4683 5167 5707

24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

22990 25415 28045 30943 34180

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030) 11.1% 10.3% Note: Base year Energy Sale is computed sale including energy shed & excluding export to PEPCO . Base year Energy Generated is computed energy generated by KESC. Base year Peak Demand is computed peak including import from PEPCO.

15151 17114 18540 20262 10.2% 22066 24052 26135 28448 30993 8.9% 34377 38061 42133 46678 51765 10.8% 57385 63602 70558 78186 86618 10.8% 95972 106093 117071 129172 142684 10.5% 10.2%

Load Computed Factor Peak (%) (MW) 73.6 73.0 72.4 71.8 71.2 70.5 69.9 69.3 68.7 68.1 67.5 66.8 66.2 65.6 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0

2349 2676 2923 3222 11.1% 3540 3892 4266 4685 5150 9.8% 5764 6440 7195 8045 9006 11.8% 10078 11170 12392 13731 15212 11.1% 16855 18632 20560 22686 25059 10.5% 10.8%

Table 3-16

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country-Low Year

Sale (GWh)

PEPCO Generation (GWh)

Peak (MW)

Sale (GWh)

KESC Generation (GWh)

Peak (MW)

Sale (GWh)

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

64854 71393 78356 86525 10.1% 95010 104152 113675 124005 135087 9.3% 146643 158762 171603 185303 199916 8.2% 215239 231342 248396 266039 284441 7.3% 303662 323112 342930 363430 384844 6.2%

86388 93914 101803 111050 8.7% 120475 130500 140761 151771 163439 8.0% 175410 187779 200718 216741 233834 7.4% 251757 270592 290540 311175 332700 7.3% 355181 377932 401111 425090 450137 6.2%

15138 16468 17824 19266 8.4% 20728 22235 23805 25479 27437 7.3% 29447 31523 33696 36386 39255 7.4% 42264 45426 48774 52239 55852 7.3% 59626 63445 67337 71362 75567 6.2%

9643 11193 12360 13739 12.5% 15186 16767 18420 20225 22175 10.0% 24226 26377 28660 31099 33705 8.7% 36444 39319 42361 45508 48780 7.7% 52184 55639 59130 62722 66454 6.4%

15151 17077 18436 20044 9.8% 21681 23436 25217 27132 29160 7.8% 31857 34686 37688 40896 44323 8.7% 47925 51705 55705 59844 64146 7.7% 68622 73166 77757 82480 87387 6.4%

2349 2670 2907 3188 10.7% 3478 3792 4116 4468 4845 8.7% 5342 5869 6436 7049 7711 9.7% 8417 9081 9783 10510 11266 7.9% 12052 12850 13656 14485 15347 6.4%

74497 82586 90716 100264 10.4% 110197 120919 132095 144230 157261 9.4% 170869 185139 200263 216402 233621 8.2% 251684 270661 290757 311548 333221 7.4% 355846 378751 402059 426152 451298 6.3%

G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 G.R. (2025-30)

PEPCO + KESC Generation Peak (GWh) (MW) 101539 110990 120239 131094 8.9% 142156 153935 165979 178903 192599 8.0% 207267 222465 238406 257638 278156 7.6% 299682 322297 346244 371020 396846 7.4% 423804 451098 478868 507570 537524 6.3%

17328 18964 20542 22249 8.7% 23985 25790 27668 29675 31989 7.5% 34472 37052 39766 43039 46539 7.8% 50219 54010 58025 62178 66507 7.4% 71026 75601 80256 85066 90087 6.3%

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030) 8.0% 7.4% 7.2% 8.8% 7.9% 8.5% 8.1% 7.5% 7.4% Note The sum of PEPCO and KESC Demand (MW) is divided by a diversity factor of 1.009. Self Generation demand (MW) is calculated by assuming auxiliary losses of 6% and a load factor of 70%.

Sale (GWh)

Self Generation Generation Peak (GWh) MW

Sale (GWh)

Country Generation (GWh)

Peak MW

8966 9885 10899 12047 10.3% 13287 14624 15955 17390 18917 9.4% 20537 22132 23807 25560 27421 7.7% 29363 31323 33387 35526 37661 6.6% 39858 42153 44295 46517 48819 5.3%

9538 10515 11595 12816 10.3% 14136 15558 16973 18500 20124 9.4% 21847 23545 25326 27192 29171 7.7% 31238 33322 35518 37793 40065 6.6% 42402 44844 47122 49486 51935 5.3%

1556 1715 1891 2090 10.3% 2305 2537 2768 3017 3282 9.4% 3563 3840 4130 4434 4757 7.7% 5094 5434 5792 6163 6534 6.6% 6915 7313 7685 8070 8470 5.3%

83463 92471 101615 112311 10.4% 123484 135543 148050 161621 176178 9.4% 191405 207271 224070 241963 261042 8.2% 281047 301983 324144 347073 370882 7.3% 395703 420904 446354 472669 500117 6.2%

111078 121506 131834 143910 9.0% 156292 169493 182952 197403 212724 8.1% 229115 246010 263732 284830 307328 7.6% 330920 355618 381763 408813 436911 7.3% 466206 495941 525990 557056 589460 6.2%

18883 20679 22433 24339 8.8% 26291 28327 30436 32691 35271 7.7% 38035 40892 43896 47473 51296 7.8% 55314 59444 63817 68341 73041 7.3% 77941 82914 87940 93137 98557 6.2%

7.6%

7.6%

7.6%

8.1%

7.5%

7.4%

Table 3-17

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country-Normal Year

Sale (GWh)

PEPCO Generation (GWh)

Peak (MW)

Sale (GWh)

KESC Generation (GWh)

Peak (MW)

Sale (GWh)

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

64854 71462 78546 86913 10.3% 95680 105209 115205 126147 137998 9.7% 150505 163701 177829 193050 209477 8.7% 226917 245394 265216 286022 307896 8.0% 331027 354942 379293 404892 432030 7.0%

86388 94004 102051 111548 8.9% 121324 131824 142655 154394 166962 8.4% 180030 193621 208000 225803 245017 8.0% 265416 287027 310213 334549 360134 8.0% 387189 415162 443644 473586 505328 7.0%

15138 16484 17868 19352 8.5% 20874 22460 24126 25919 28029 7.7% 30223 32504 34918 37907 41132 8.0% 44557 48185 52077 56163 60458 8.0% 65000 69696 74477 79503 84832 7.0%

9643 11207 12399 13818 12.7% 15324 16983 18733 20664 22771 10.5% 25017 27388 29934 32685 35662 9.4% 38835 42195 45804 49599 53581 8.5% 57786 62154 66574 71209 76113 7.3%

15151 17098 18494 20159 10.0% 21877 23738 25646 27720 29944 8.2% 32897 36016 39364 42982 46896 9.4% 51069 55487 60232 65224 70460 8.5% 75989 81734 87545 93641 100089 7.3%

2349 2673 2916 3206 10.9% 3509 3841 4186 4565 4976 9.2% 5516 6094 6722 7408 8159 10.4% 8969 9745 10578 11455 12374 8.7% 13345 14354 15375 16446 17578 7.3%

74497 82669 90945 100731 10.6% 111003 122192 133938 146811 160769 9.8% 175522 191090 207763 225735 245139 8.8% 265752 287589 311020 335622 361477 8.1% 388813 417097 445866 476101 508143 7.0%

G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 G.R. (2025-30)

PEPCO + KESC Generation Peak (GWh) (MW) 101539 111102 120545 131707 9.1% 143201 155562 168301 182114 196906 8.4% 212927 229637 247364 268785 291913 8.2% 316485 342514 370445 399773 430594 8.1% 463178 496896 531189 567227 605418 7.1%

17328 18983 20594 22353 8.9% 24161 26062 28054 30207 32704 7.9% 35413 38247 41261 44903 48843 8.4% 53039 57403 62085 67002 72169 8.1% 77632 83285 89034 95076 101478 7.1%

Sale (GWh) 8966 9916 10986 12224 10.9% 13594 15108 16655 18371 20249 10.6% 22304 24393 26656 29107 31798 9.4% 34709 37754 41086 44672 48397 8.8% 52383 56723 60939 65494 70417 7.8%

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030) 8.6% 8.0% 7.8% 9.4% 8.6% 9.1% 8.7% 8.1% 8.0% 9.4% Note The sum of PEPCO and KESC Demand (MW) is divided by a diversity factor of 1.009. Self Generation demand (MW) is calculated by assuming auxiliary losses of 6% and a load factor of 70%.

Self Generation Generation Peak (GWh) MW

Sale (GWh)

Country Generation (GWh)

Peak MW

9538 10549 11688 13005 10.9% 14462 16072 17718 19543 21542 10.6% 23728 25950 28358 30964 33827 9.4% 36924 40164 43708 47524 51486 8.8% 55727 60343 64829 69675 74912 7.8%

1556 1720 1906 2121 10.9% 2358 2621 2889 3187 3513 10.6% 3870 4232 4625 5050 5516 9.4% 6022 6550 7128 7750 8396 8.8% 9088 9841 10572 11363 12217 7.8%

83463 92585 101932 112955 10.6% 124597 137300 150593 165182 181018 9.9% 197826 215483 234420 254842 276937 8.9% 300461 325343 352106 380294 409874 8.2% 441196 473820 506805 541595 578560 7.1%

111078 121651 132232 144711 9.2% 157663 171634 186019 201657 218448 8.6% 236655 255587 275722 299749 325740 8.3% 353409 382678 414154 447297 482080 8.2% 518906 557240 596018 636902 680330 7.1%

18883 20703 22500 24474 9.0% 26520 28683 30944 33394 36217 8.2% 39283 42479 45886 49952 54359 8.5% 59060 63952 69213 74752 80566 8.2% 86720 93126 99607 106438 113695 7.1%

9.4%

9.4%

8.8%

8.2%

8.1%

Table 3-18

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country-High Year

Sale (GWh)

PEPCO Generation (GWh)

Peak (MW)

Sale (GWh)

KESC Generation (GWh)

Peak (MW)

Sale (GWh)

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

64854 71510 78686 87224 10.4% 96257 106171 116712 128408 141283 10.1% 155090 169976 186250 204206 224070 9.7% 245730 269419 295624 324010 355033 9.6% 389081 425431 464412 506983 554044 9.3%

86388 94067 102233 111947 9.0% 122057 133029 144521 157161 170936 8.8% 185515 201042 217850 238851 262086 8.9% 287421 315129 345780 378981 415268 9.6% 455092 497610 543205 592999 648043 9.3%

15138 16495 17899 19422 8.7% 21000 22666 24441 26383 28696 8.1% 31143 33750 36572 40097 43998 8.9% 48251 52902 58048 63622 69713 9.6% 76399 83536 91191 99550 108791 9.3%

9643 11218 12430 13888 12.9% 15456 17208 19090 21207 23568 11.2% 26142 28943 32040 35496 39364 10.8% 43638 48366 53656 59457 65868 10.8% 72982 80678 89026 98228 108504 10.5%

15151 17114 18540 20262 10.2% 22066 24052 26135 28448 30993 8.9% 34377 38061 42133 46678 51765 10.8% 57385 63602 70558 78186 86618 10.8% 95972 106093 117071 129172 142684 10.5%

2349 2676 2923 3222 11.1% 3540 3892 4266 4685 5150 9.8% 5764 6440 7195 8045 9006 11.8% 10078 11170 12392 13731 15212 11.1% 16855 18632 20560 22686 25059 10.5%

74497 82728 91117 101113 10.7% 111713 123379 135802 149615 164851 10.3% 181232 198920 218290 239702 263434 9.8% 289369 317785 349279 383466 420901 9.8% 462062 506109 553438 605212 662548 9.5%

G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 G.R. (2025-30)

PEPCO + KESC Generation Peak (GWh) (MW) 101539 111181 120773 132209 9.2% 144122 157081 170656 185609 201929 8.8% 219892 239103 259982 285529 313851 9.2% 344806 378730 416337 457168 501886 9.8% 551064 603703 660275 722170 790728 9.5%

17328 18996 20633 22438 9.0% 24316 26316 28446 30786 33538 8.4% 36572 39824 43368 47704 52521 9.4% 57798 63489 69799 76649 84153 9.9% 92405 101239 110734 121123 132631 9.5%

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030) 9.8% 9.2% 9.0% 11.1% 10.2% 10.8% 10.0% 9.3% 9.3% Note The sum of PEPCO and KESC Demand (MW) is divided by a diversity factor of 1.009. Self Generation demand (MW) is calculated by assuming auxiliary losses of 6% and a load factor of 70%.

Sale (GWh)

Self Generation Generation Peak (GWh) MW

Sale (GWh)

Country Generation (GWh)

Peak MW

8966 9919 10995 12242 10.9% 13625 15157 16726 18472 20388 10.7% 22489 24632 26960 29487 32272 9.6% 35294 38466 41947 45708 49626 9.0% 53835 58432 62915 67774 73044 8.0%

9538 10552 11697 13024 10.9% 14495 16124 17794 19651 21689 10.7% 23925 26204 28680 31369 34332 9.6% 37547 40921 44625 48625 52794 9.0% 57271 62161 66930 72100 77707 8.0%

1556 1721 1908 2124 10.9% 2364 2630 2902 3205 3537 10.7% 3902 4273 4677 5116 5599 9.6% 6123 6673 7277 7930 8610 9.0% 9340 10137 10915 11758 12672 8.0%

83463 92647 102112 113355 10.7% 125338 138536 152529 168087 185239 10.3% 203722 223551 245250 269189 295706 9.8% 324663 356251 391227 429174 470527 9.7% 515897 564541 616353 672986 735592 9.3%

111078 121734 132470 145233 9.3% 158617 173206 188450 205260 223618 9.0% 243817 265307 288663 316898 348182 9.3% 382353 419652 460962 505793 554680 9.8% 608335 665864 727206 794270 868434 9.4%

18883 20717 22541 24562 9.2% 26680 28945 31348 33990 37075 8.6% 40473 44098 48045 52820 58120 9.4% 63922 70163 77076 84579 92762 9.8% 101745 111376 121649 132881 145304 9.4%

9.5%

9.5%

9.5%

9.9%

9.4%

9.3%

Table 3-19

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country including DSM Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 G.R. (2025-30)

Sale (GWh) 64854 71462 78546 86913 10.3% 95680 105209 115205 126147 137998 9.7% 150505 163701 177829 193050 209477 8.7% 226917 245394 265216 286022 307896 8.0% 331027 354942 379293 404892 432030 7.0%

PEPCO Generation (GWh) 86388 94004 102051 111548 8.9% 121324 131824 142655 154394 166962 8.4% 180030 193621 208000 225803 245017 8.0% 265416 287027 310213 334549 360134 8.0% 387189 415162 443644 473586 505328 7.0%

Peak (MW) 15138 16484 17388 18455 6.8% 19507 21195 22936 24824 26844 7.8% 28946 31131 33443 36305 39394 8.0% 42674 46149 49877 53789 57903 8.0% 62253 66751 71330 76144 81248 7.0%

Sale (GWh) 9643 11207 12399 13818 12.7% 15324 16983 18733 20664 22771 10.5% 25017 27388 29934 32685 35662 9.4% 38835 42195 45804 49599 53581 8.5% 57786 62154 66574 71209 76113 7.3%

KESC Generation (GWh) 15151 17098 18494 20159 10.0% 21877 23738 25646 27720 29944 8.2% 32897 36016 39364 42982 46896 9.4% 51069 55487 60232 65224 70460 8.5% 75989 81734 87545 93641 100089 7.3%

Peak (MW) 2349 2673 2916 3206 10.9% 3509 3841 4186 4565 4976 9.2% 5516 6094 6722 7408 8159 10.4% 8969 9745 10578 11455 12374 8.7% 13345 14354 15375 16446 17578 7.3%

PEPCO + KESC Sale Generation (GWh) (GWh) 74497 101539 82669 111102 90945 120545 100731 131707 10.6% 9.1% 111003 143201 122192 155562 133938 168301 146811 182114 160769 196906 9.8% 8.4% 175522 212927 191090 229637 207763 247364 225735 268785 245139 291913 8.8% 8.2% 265752 316485 287589 342514 311020 370445 335622 399773 361477 430594 8.1% 8.1% 388813 463178 417097 496896 445866 531189 476101 567227 508143 605418 7.0% 7.1%

Peak (MW) 17328 18983 20119 21464 7.4% 22807 24808 26876 29121 31531 8.0% 34148 36886 39799 43315 47120 8.4% 51173 55385 59905 64651 69638 8.1% 74911 80367 85916 91747 97927 7.1%

AVG. G. R. (2007-2030) 8.6% 8.0% 7.6% 9.4% 8.6% 9.1% 8.7% 8.1% 7.8% Note The sum of PEPCO and KESC Demand (MW) is divided by a diversity factor of 1.009. Self Generation demand (MW) is calculated by assuming auxiliary losses of 6% and a load factor of 70%.

Sale (GWh) 8966 9916 10986 12224 10.9% 13594 15108 16655 18371 20249 10.6% 22304 24393 26656 29107 31798 9.4% 34709 37754 41086 44672 48397 8.8% 52383 56723 60939 65494 70417 7.8%

Self Generation Generation (GWh) 9538 10549 11688 13005 10.9% 14462 16072 17718 19543 21542 10.6% 23728 25950 28358 30964 33827 9.4% 36924 40164 43708 47524 51486 8.8% 55727 60343 64829 69675 74912 7.8%

Peak MW 1556 1720 1906 2121 10.9% 2358 2621 2889 3187 3513 10.6% 3870 4232 4625 5050 5516 9.4% 6022 6550 7128 7750 8396 8.8% 9088 9841 10572 11363 12217 7.8%

Sale (GWh) 83463 92585 101932 112955 10.6% 124597 137300 150593 165182 181018 9.9% 197826 215483 234420 254842 276937 8.9% 300461 325343 352106 380294 409874 8.2% 441196 473820 506805 541595 578560 7.1%

Country Generation (GWh) 111078 121651 132232 144711 9.2% 157663 171634 186019 201657 218448 8.6% 236655 255587 275722 299749 325740 8.3% 353409 382678 414154 447297 482080 8.2% 518906 557240 596018 636902 680330 7.1%

Peak MW 18883 20703 22025 23584 7.7% 25165 27429 29765 32309 35044 8.2% 38017 41118 44424 48365 52637 8.5% 57195 61935 67033 72401 78034 8.2% 83999 90208 96488 103110 110143 7.1%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

8.8%

8.2%

8.0%

FIG 3-1

Category Wise Composition Of Loads (GWh Sales) others 5%

Agriculture 9%

Domestic 41%

Industrial 37%

Commercial 8%

Year - 2010

Agriculture 7%

others 6%

Domestic 35%

Industrial 40%

Commercial 12%

Year - 2020 others 6% Agriculture 6%

Domestic 33%

Industrial 42%

Year - 2030 Note

Commercial 13%

Industrial energy includes self generation.