LBO excel Model
January 13, 2017 | Author: rf_1238 | Category: N/A
Short Description
PEVC...
Description
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LBO
LBO model Base data Ticker SIC code FactSet identifier Current market price Current year end Transaction date Stub period proportion NOSH (m) Marginal tax rate Tax losses brought forward Financing Maximum total debt / EBITDA Minimum equity proportion 3 year swap rate Cash interest rate on revolver Cash interest rate on cash Valuation Equity offer premium Implied entry EV / EBITDA Exit at end of year… Exit EV / EBITDA multiple Exit fees as % of exit EV Management warrants
Checks Debt OK per Maximum total debt / EBITDA Debt OK per Minimum equity proportion Senior A amount ok Senior B amount ok Senior C amount ok Mezzanine / HY debt amount ok No revolver drawn Value creation reconciles
11.21 30 Sep 09 15 Jul 09 20.8% Stub 733.30 35.00% TaxRate ALL YELLOW CELLS SHOULD BE CHANGED. Green cells may (but need -- TaxLosses not) be changed. This is an example of a standard LBO model. The model has been setup 6.0x according to CTG's best practice modelling guidelines. The model produces an 40.00% equity returns analysis on a private equity investment. The main outputs are exit 2.58% IRRs, cash on cash multiples and value creation for both the firm and management. 6.08% RevInt 0.50% CashInt All interest is calculated on the balance outstanding at the start of the peiod. 20.00% 7.8x 4 7.8x ExitMulti 3.00% ExitFees 1.50%
A relativley simple capital structure has been included, but with the ability to add significant flexibility such as variable paydown, non-cash interest, cash sweep, tax deductibility of shareholder loan interest, management warrants, etc. Checks at the top of this sheet indicate when an inappropriate structure is being used .
--------Typically, CTG add further functionality in the form of: * Flexible operating scenaria such as base, management and banking cases * Equity roll overs * Asset backed loans * Capex facilities * Capital structure scenario management * Interest rate conventions (opening, closing and average) * Debt decircularisation * Dividend payments * Graph driven assumptions * Restructuring costs * Time flexible sensitivity analysis * Our models can be integrated into FACTSET's =FDS coding and CapIQ
Sources and uses of funds statement Proportion Sources of funds Senior A Senior B Senior C Mezzanine / HY debt Total debt Equity - management Shareholder loan Equity - PE funds Uses of funds Current share price Offer premium Offer price NOSH (m) Equity transaction cost ITM share options buy out Total equity transaction cost Existing debt Other adjustments Advisory fees Debt fees Working capital cash requirements
85.00%
2,541 1,307 1,307 1,743 6,898 25 3,922 692 11,536
22.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.1% 59.8% 0.2% 34.0% 6.0% 100.0%
11.21 20.00% 13.45 733
0.60% 0.60%
EBITDA x 1.75x 0.90x 0.90x 1.20x 4.75x
Term Repayment method 7 years Amortising 8 years Bullet 9 years Bullet 11 years Bullet
Cash interest Spreads rate 3.50% 6.08% 3.90% 6.48% 4.30% 6.88% 4.00% 6.58%
Sweep?
% tax deductable
EV / Sales EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT P / taxed EBIT
30 Sep 09 Current 0.98x 7.8x 12.4x 13.8x
30 Sep 10 Forecast 0.90x 7.0x 10.8x 9.5x
30 Sep 11 2 13,598 (11,194) (616)
30 Sep 12 3 14,510 (11,897) (666)
Max cash available 5,188 4,108 4,468 5,326
Yes No No No
17.00%
Acquisition multiples
9,864 -9,864 1,433 -68 41 130 11,536
PIK rate ---10.00%
Amount ok Amount ok Amount ok Amount ok
60.00%
Summary financing Entry EBITDA Total senior debt / EBITDA Total debt / EBITDA Debt / equity Debt / capital Management equity proportion PE equity proportion Envy ratio
1,452 3.6x 4.8x 1.5x 59.8% 3.49% 96.5% 6.7x
Cash flow forecasts
Sales COGS SG&A
9/18/2013, 8:23 PM
30 Sep 06 (3) 7,787 (6,120) (479)
30 Sep 07 (2) 9,412 (7,509) (489)
30 Sep 08 (1) 10,383 (8,721) (456)
30 Sep 09 -11,525 (9,566) (507)
30 Sep 10 1 12,600 (10,416) (562)
30 Sep 13 4 15,337 (12,523) (714)
30 Sep 14 5 16,077 (13,074) (759)
30 Sep 15 6 16,736 (13,554) (802)
30 Sep 16 7 17,318 (13,968) (842)
30 Sep 17 8 17,828 (14,321) (879)
30 Sep 18 9 18,274 (14,619) (914)
30 Sep 19 10 18,731 (14,984) (937)
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EBITDA 1,187 DA (387) EBIT 800 Cash taxes on EBIT (274) EBIT (1-Tc) 526 DA 387 Decrease (increase) in NWC 222 Net capex (771) Unlevered FCF 364 Stub period unlevered free cash flow FCF available for debt service Net interest paid Free cash flow available for debt repayment Mandatory repayments Cash flow available for sweep Revolver repayment Senior A 11 Senior B 24 Senior C 37 Mezzanine / HY debt 50 (Increase in revolver) / Increase in cash Cash flow forecast assumptions Sales growth rates COGS as % of sales SG&A as % of sales Tax rates on EBIT Decr (incr) in NWC as incr in sales Capex as % of sales Capex / Depn multiples Ratios EBITDA margin EBIT margin EBIT (1-Tc) margin EBITDA growth EBIT growth EBIT (1-Tc) growth Unlevered free cash flow growth
9/18/2013, 8:23 PM
78.60% 6.16% 34.25% 9.90% 2.0x 15.25% 10.27% 6.75%
1,413 (467) 946 (342) 604 467 159 (1,080) 150
LBO
1,207 (549) 657 (259) 398 549 76 (985) 39
1,452 (544) 908 (195) 712 544 80 (980) 357 74 74 (92) (17) -(17) -----(17)
1,622 (581) 1,041 -1,041 581 74 (985) 711 -711 (455) 257 (363) (106) -----(106)
1,788 (612) 1,176 (5) 1,170 612 67 (978) 872 -872 (446) 427 (363) 64 -(64) -----
1,947 (638) 1,310 (27) 1,283 638 61 (959) 1,022 -1,022 (434) 588 (363) 225 -(225) -----
2,100 (658) 1,441 (38) 1,403 658 54 (933) 1,183 -1,183 (413) 769 (363) 406 -(406) -----
2,244 (674) 1,570 (46) 1,524 674 48 (899) 1,347 -1,347 (383) 964 (363) 601 -(31) ---570
2,380 (685) 1,695 (36) 1,659 685 42 (861) 1,525 -1,525 (375) 1,150 -1,150 -----1,150
2,508 (692) 1,816 (9) 1,807 692 36 (819) 1,717 -1,717 (389) 1,327 -1,327 -----1,327
2,628 (696) 1,933 -1,933 696 31 (775) 1,884 -1,884 (387) 1,497 (1,307) 190 -----190
2,741 (696) 2,045 -2,045 696 27 (731) 2,037 -2,037 (325) 1,712 (1,307) 405 -----405
2,810 (714) 2,096 -2,096 714 27 (749) 2,088 -2,088 (279) 1,809 -1,809 -----1,809
20.86% 79.79% 5.20% 36.16% 9.81% 11.48% 2.3x
10.32% 83.99% 4.39% 39.41% 7.77% 9.48% 1.8x
11.00% 83.00% 4.40% 33.00% 7.00% 8.50% 1.80x
9.33% 82.66% 4.46% 33.22% 6.88% 7.82% 1.70x
7.91% 82.32% 4.53% 33.43% 6.76% 7.19% 1.60x
6.71% 81.99% 4.59% 33.65% 6.65% 6.61% 1.50x
5.69% 81.65% 4.66% 33.87% 6.54% 6.08% 1.42x
4.83% 81.32% 4.72% 34.10% 6.43% 5.59% 1.33x
4.10% 80.99% 4.79% 34.32% 6.32% 5.14% 1.26x
3.47% 80.66% 4.86% 34.55% 6.21% 4.73% 1.18x
2.95% 80.33% 4.93% 34.77% 6.10% 4.35% 1.11x
2.50% 80.00% 5.00% 35.00% 6.00% 4.00% 1.05x
2.50% 80.00% 5.00% 35.00% 6.00% 4.00% 1.05x
15.01% 10.05% 6.42% 19.03% 18.24% 14.81% (58.76%)
11.62% 6.33% 3.84% (14.62%) (30.52%) (34.06%) (74.35%)
12.88% 8.27% 8.27% 11.72% 14.70% 46.18% 99.28%
13.15% 8.65% 8.61% 10.21% 12.91% 12.38% 22.64%
13.42% 9.02% 8.84% 8.91% 11.37% 9.59% 17.11%
13.69% 9.40% 9.15% 7.81% 10.06% 9.38% 15.74%
13.96% 9.77% 9.48% 6.87% 8.93% 8.67% 13.88%
14.22% 10.13% 9.91% 6.07% 7.97% 8.82% 13.20%
14.48% 10.49% 10.44% 5.38% 7.14% 8.96% 12.58%
14.74% 10.84% 10.84% 4.79% 6.42% 6.93% 9.76%
15.00% 11.19% 11.19% 4.29% 5.80% 5.80% 8.11%
15.00% 11.19% 11.19% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
7
12.60% 7.88% 6.18% 20.36% 38.15% 78.92% 827.26%
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LBO
Returns analysis
Total firm returns EBITDA Exit EV / EBITDA Implied exit EV Less: net debt (funds) Less: exit fees Implied total equity value Equity invested at entry Total equity value created Cash on cash multiples Exit IRR Management returns Implied total equity value Less: shareholder loan Implied pure equity value Management share of pure equity Management equity invested Value created for management Management cash on cash multiples Management exit IRR PE returns Implied total equity value Less: management share of pure equity value Implied pure equity value PE equity and shareholder loan invested Value created for management Management cash on cash multiples Management exit IRR Value creation
4.99%
30 Sep 09 0.21
30 Sep 10 1.21
30 Sep 11 2.21
30 Sep 12 3.21
30 Sep 13 4.21
30 Sep 14 5.21
30 Sep 15 6.21
30 Sep 16 7.21
30 Sep 17 8.21
30 Sep 18 9.21
30 Sep 19 10.21
1,452 7.8x 11,297 (6,959) (339) 3,999 4,639 (640) 0.9x (51.0%)
1,622 7.8x 12,622 (6,894) (379) 5,349 4,639 710 1.2x 12.5%
1,788 7.8x 13,910 (6,679) (417) 6,814 4,639 2,176 1.5x 19.0%
1,947 7.8x 15,150 (6,322) (455) 8,373 4,639 3,735 1.8x 20.2%
2,100 7.8x 16,334 (5,808) (490) 10,036 4,639 5,397 2.2x 20.1%
2,244 7.8x 17,456 (5,125) (524) 11,807 4,639 7,169 2.5x 19.6%
2,380 7.8x 18,515 (4,284) (555) 13,676 4,639 9,038 2.9x 19.0%
2,508 7.8x 19,512 (3,296) (585) 15,630 4,639 10,992 3.4x 18.4%
2,628 7.8x 20,447 (2,173) (613) 17,660 4,639 13,022 3.8x 17.7%
2,741 7.8x 21,324 (873) (640) 19,812 4,639 15,173 4.3x 17.1%
2,810 7.8x 21,857 484 (656) 21,686 4,639 17,047 4.7x 16.3%
3,999 (4,060) (62) (3) 25 (28) nm nm
5,349 (4,751) 598 30 25 5 1.2x 15.7%
6,814 (5,558) 1,256 63 25 38 2.5x 51.6%
8,373 (6,503) 1,870 93 25 68 3.7x 50.7%
10,036 (7,609) 2,427 121 25 96 4.8x 45.5%
11,807 (8,902) 2,905 145 25 120 5.8x 40.1%
13,676 (10,416) 3,260 163 25 138 6.5x 35.2%
15,630 (12,186) 3,444 172 25 147 6.9x 30.6%
17,660 (14,258) 3,402 170 25 145 6.8x 26.3%
19,812 (16,682) 3,130 156 25 131 6.2x 22.0%
21,686 (19,518) 2,168 108 25 83 4.3x 15.4%
3,999 3 4,002 4,614 (612) 0.9x (49.5%)
5,349 (30) 5,319 4,614 705 1.2x 12.5%
6,814 (63) 6,752 4,614 2,138 1.5x 18.8%
8,373 (93) 8,280 4,614 3,666 1.8x 20.0%
10,036 (121) 9,915 4,614 5,301 2.1x 19.9%
11,807 (145) 11,663 4,614 7,049 2.5x 19.5%
13,676 (163) 13,514 4,614 8,900 2.9x 18.9%
15,630 (172) 15,458 4,614 10,845 3.4x 18.3%
17,660 (170) 17,491 4,614 12,877 3.8x 17.6%
19,812 (156) 19,656 4,614 15,042 4.3x 17.0%
21,686 (108) 21,578 4,614 16,964 4.7x 16.3%
Total equity value created
Value creation - management 350
12,000 960
1,607 10,000
3,736 (599)
33
56
300
130 (11)
250 (307)
8,000 6,000
10,036
(21)
200
100
4,000
50
121
92
150 4,639
25
(184)
--
2,000 -Equity invested
9/18/2013, 8:23 PM
Sales growth COGS savings SG&A savings
Fees
Deleverage
Exit equity value
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Financing
Financing model 30 Sep 09 30 Sep 10 30 Sep 11 30 Sep 12 30 Sep 13 30 Sep 14 30 Sep 15 30 Sep 16 30 Sep 17 30 Sep 18 30 Sep 19 -1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Debt summary Senior A Senior B Senior C Mezzanine / HY debt Debt outstanding Revolver / (Cash) Net debt (funds)
11 24 37 50
9
1
6
Net debt at entry Deleverage
6,768
Mandatory debt repayment summary Senior A 11 Senior B 24 Senior C 37 Mezzanine / HY debt 50 Total mandatory repayment Cash interest paid summary Senior A Senior B Senior C Mezzanine / HY debt Revolver / (Cash) Total cash interest paid PIK interest summary Senior A Senior B Senior C Mezzanine / HY debt Total PIK interest
9/18/2013, 8:23 PM
2,541 1,307 1,307 1,917 7,072 (113) 6,959
2,178 1,307 1,307 2,109 6,901 (6) 6,894
1,752 1,307 1,307 2,319 6,685 (6) 6,679
1,163 1,307 1,307 2,551 6,329 (6) 6,322
394 1,307 1,307 2,806 5,814 (6) 5,808
-1,307 1,307 3,087 5,701 (576) 5,125
-1,307 1,307 3,396 6,010 (1,726) 4,284
-1,307 1,307 3,735 6,349 (3,053) 3,296
--1,307 4,109 5,416 (3,243) 2,173
---4,520 4,520 (3,647) 873
---4,972 4,972 (5,456) (484)
6,768 (192)
6,768 (127)
6,768 89
6,768 445
6,768 960
6,768 1,643
6,768 2,484
6,768 3,472
6,768 4,595
6,768 5,895
6,768 7,252
------
------
-1,307 --1,307
--1,307 -1,307
------
6
------
363 ---363
363 ---363
363 ---363
363 ---363
363 ---363
11 24 37 50
11
32 18 19 24 (1) 92
155 85 90 126 (1) 455
132 85 90 139 (0) 446
106 85 90 153 (0) 434
71 85 90 168 (0) 413
24 85 90 185 (0) 383
-85 90 203 (3) 375
-85 90 223 (9) 389
-67 90 246 (15) 387
--71 270 (16) 325
---297 (18) 279
11 24 37 50
5
---192 192
---211 211
---232 232
---255 255
---281 281
---309 309
---340 340
---374 374
---411 411
---452 452
---174 174
NetDebt
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Financing
Financing model 30 Sep 09 30 Sep 10 30 Sep 11 30 Sep 12 30 Sep 13 30 Sep 14 30 Sep 15 30 Sep 16 30 Sep 17 30 Sep 18 30 Sep 19 -1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Debt schedules Revolver / (Cash) maximum drawdown Cash interest rate on revolver 6.08% Cash interest rate on cash 0.50% Start Revolver repayment Residual cash flow End Cash interest paid (opening balance) Cash interest rec'd (opening balance) 1 Senior A Cash interest rate 6.08% PIK interest rate -Debt term 7 years Amortising Start Interest capitalised Mandatory repayment Balance available for sweep Voluntary repayment End Amortisation schedule 100.00% Cash interest paid (opening balance) 2 Senior B Cash interest rate 6.48% PIK interest rate -Debt term 8 years Bullet Start Interest capitalised Mandatory repayment Balance available for sweep Voluntary repayment End Amortisation schedule 100.00% Cash interest paid (opening balance)
9/18/2013, 8:23 PM
--
(130)
2,541
1,307
(130) -17 (113) -(1)
(113) -106 (6) -(1)
(6) --(6) -(0)
(6) --(6) -(0)
(6) --(6) -(0)
(6) -(570) (576) -(0)
2,541 --2,541 -2,541 -32
2,541 -(363) 2,178 -2,178 14.29% 155
2,178 -(363) 1,815 (64) 1,752 14.29% 132
1,752 -(363) 1,388 (225) 1,163 14.29% 106
1,163 -(363) 800 (406) 394 14.29% 71
394 -(363) 31 (31) -14.29% 24
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -18
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -85
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -85
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -85
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -85
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -85
(576) -(1,150) (1,726) -(3)
(1,726) -(1,327) (3,053) -(9)
------14.29% --
------14.29% --
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -85
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -85
(3,053) -(190) (3,243) -(15)
(3,243) -(405) (3,647) -(16)
--------
--------
--
1,307 -(1,307) ---100.00% 67
(3,647) -(1,809) (5,456) -(18)
--------
--
--
-------
-------
--
---
--
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Financing
Financing model 30 Sep 09 30 Sep 10 30 Sep 11 30 Sep 12 30 Sep 13 30 Sep 14 30 Sep 15 30 Sep 16 30 Sep 17 30 Sep 18 30 Sep 19 -1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 Senior C Cash interest rate 6.88% PIK interest rate -Debt term 9 years Bullet Start Interest capitalised Mandatory repayment Balance available for sweep Voluntary repayment End Amortisation schedule 100.00% Cash interest paid (opening balance) 4 Mezzanine / HY debt Cash interest rate 6.58% PIK interest rate 10.00% Debt term 11 years Bullet Start Interest capitalised Mandatory repayment Balance available for sweep Voluntary repayment End Amortisation schedule -Cash interest paid (opening balance) Equity Shareholder loan Start Interest capitalised End
1,743
17.00%
Working Debt check Start Free cash flow available for debt repayment PIK End of year check
9/18/2013, 8:23 PM
1,307
3,922
6,768
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -19
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -90
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -90
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -90
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -90
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -90
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -90
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -90
1,307 --1,307 -1,307 -90
1,307 -(1,307) ---100.00% 71
-------
1,743 174 -1,917 -1,917 -24
1,917 192 -2,109 -2,109 -126
2,109 211 -2,319 -2,319 -139
2,319 232 -2,551 -2,551 -153
2,551 255 -2,806 -2,806 -168
2,806 281 -3,087 -3,087 -185
3,087 309 -3,396 -3,396 -203
3,396 340 -3,735 -3,735 -223
3,735 374 -4,109 -4,109 -246
4,109 411 -4,520 -4,520 -270
4,520 452 -4,972 -4,972 -297
3,922 139 4,060
4,060 690 4,751
4,751 808 5,558
5,558 945 6,503
6,503 1,106 7,609
7,609 1,294 8,902
8,902 1,513 10,416
10,416 1,771 12,186
12,186 2,072 14,258
14,258 2,424 16,682
16,682 2,836 19,518
6,768 17 174 6,959 --
6,959 (257) 192 6,894 --
6,894 (427) 211 6,679 --
6,679 (588) 232 6,322 --
6,322 (769) 255 5,808 --
5,808 (964) 281 5,125 --
5,125 (1,150) 309 4,284 --
4,284 (1,327) 340 3,296 --
3,296 (1,497) 374 2,173 --
2,173 (1,712) 411 873 --
873 (1,809) 452 (484) --
---
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