Lay Genius

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The ultimate guide to making a tax-free living from laying horses. http://www.laygenius.com/

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Liability and Disclaimer The author and publisher of the Lay Genius e-book cannot be held responsible for any losses that may occur during the utilization of this digital product. External links are used for purpose of information only, and cannot guarantee accuracy within their provided content towards the procedures of this system. Any of the trademarks, or similar rights that are mentioned, used or cited in the the Lay Genius e-Book are the property of their respective owners. It is illegal to copy, photocopy or distribute this e-book in any form. If you didn’t obtain this e-book from http://www.laygenius.com/ contact me ([email protected]) immediately.

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Contents

Introduction………………………………………………………………. Page 4

The Betting Exchanges………………………………………………..

Page 5

An Introduction To Betfair…………………………….................

Page 7

Understanding Betfair…………………………………………………

Page 8

Overview Of The Odds………………………………………………..

Page 10

An Introduction To The System……………………………………

Page 12

Gathering The Resources…………………………………………….

Page 13

Implementing The System………………...............................

Page 17

Examples……………………………………..................................

Page 20

Essential Websites……………………………………………………..

Page 21

End Notes………………………………………………………………….

Page 22

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Introduction Welcome to The Lay Genius guide. In this guide I will expose everything you need to know in order to make a living from laying horses on Betfair. The methods are fairly straight forward, so it shouldn’t take you long before you making good profits. I use this system everyday. It helps me generate an average of about 500 pounds per week. You too could be making endless profits from the comfort of your home, just by putting my system to use. Best of all, you don’t need to know a lot about horse racing, or trading in general. Anyone can use this system, whether you have been using the exchanges for 5 years or 5 minutes, even if you have never placed a bet in your life, it doesn’t matter! I have you covered. Let’s get started…

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The Betting Exchanges Betfair is undoubtedly the largest off all betting exchanges. Unlike standard betting sites, no bookmaker is involved with Betfair. You simply place your bet, allowing another punter to accept your bet and act as the bookmaker in the transaction. This guide will focus mainly on Betfair. If you would prefer not to use Betfair, you may want to try a similar site. You may want to try any of the following listed below: (I would highly recommend Betfair, as it is the largest exchange with a lot more money and users floating around than other sites. After all, our aim is to take other peoples money, so the more users the better.) http://www.betdaq.com http://www.ibetx.com http://www.betonbet.com http://www.betsson.com In order to use a betting exchange, you will have to sign up for an account, and then deposit money into your account. When you place a bet the money is deducted from your account. If you win the bet, your winnings are added to your account. Here is an illustration of how the exchanges work: Greg decides that a horse named “Kingsbury” has a very good chance of winning a particular race. He logs on to the betting exchange and requests to back the selection at odds of 4.0 for £10. By backing, he is betting on the horse to win the race. He is risking a little to win a lot. If Kingsbury wins the race, Greg’s payout will be £10 X 4.0 = £40. He has contributed an initial stake of £10, therefore his profit is £30.

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Steve decides that Kingsbury has little chance of winning the race. He decides to lay the horse. By laying, he is betting on the horse to lose the race. He logs onto the exchange and sees Greg’s bet waiting to be matched. Greg therefore accepts his request. Because Steve is betting that Kingsbury will not win, he must be able to cover the payout for Greg’s bet, which is £30. He does not need to cover the full £40, because £10 is Greg’s own stake. Steve is betting to win Greg’s stake money which is £10. He is risking a lot to win a little. Kingsbury ends up losing, therefore Steve wins Gregs stake of £10. Be aware that betting exchanges are completely anonymous, and no one knows who takes each others money. Things are slightly more complicated than this, but this example should give you a basic idea of how betting exchanges work. On popular events you won’t have to worry about your bets not being accepted.

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An Introduction To Betfair As I said earlier, Betfair is undoubtedly the largest off all betting exchanges. I place all my bets here. All my bets get accepted, as there is a vast amount of money and users present at Betfair. Head on over to http://www.betfair.com You will see a screen looking like this:

When signing up with Betfair, enter the following refer and earn code: G37PHUCPT This will provide you with a free £20 once you have reached 100 Betfair points.

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Understanding Betfair Before the system is explained, it’s vital you have a basic knowledge of Betfair first.

Encircled with a back block is ‘Join Now’. In order to start trading with Betfair, click Join Now and follow the steps. On the left you will see the markets (encircled with a green block). The markets include all the sports available for betting. We will be focusing primarily on the Horse Racing – Todays Card market (which is selected in the screenshot). To make sure Betfair is correctly configured, click Options (encircled with a blue block), and make sure all the check boxes are ticked. The refresh button which is encircled with a grey block will refresh the odds on the specific event. The back and lay columns are clearly visible. Focus primarily

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on the red and blue columns. The odds in these columns are the current best odds for the specific event. The odds in the white columns are still waiting in the queue and waiting to be matched. To place a back or lay bet you will need to click on the appropriate block. Refer to the yellow square. You will see that backing this horse could give me a profit of £17.50 from a £50 stake. Refer to the orange square. You will see that laying this horse could win me the backers stake of £50, the same amount as what I am staking. My liability is £19, which is the money I stand to lose. The submit button at the bottom right will place the bets.

For a further guide to how Betfair works and the layout, head on over to http://www.bfguide.com/ and http://help.betfair.com to familiarize yourself further. Don’t forget to use the refer and earn code mentioned on page 7. This will provide you with a free £20.

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Overview Of The Odds Odds play a vital role in any aspect of betting. They basically determine how much you will win or lose. Odds can be determined by a few factors: form, skill, advantage and sometimes general opinion. We should spend some time looking at the basic issues. Let’s take a soccer match as an example. Germany vs. Brazil. The odds are as follows: Germany: 1.4 Brazil: 2.4 By looking at the odds you can identify some factors: Who is the favorite? – In this case Germany because they have the lowest odds. Who has the better chance of winning? – In this case Germany. Who has the better chance of losing? – In this case Brazil because they have the highest odds. Odds can be displayed in one of 2 ways: Decimal Odds Decimal odds are expressed in decimal terms (like the example above). They are used with betting exchanges including Betfair. They range from 1.01 to 1000. Let’s take the same example as above, Germany vs. Brazil. If Brazil’s odds were 20.00, obviously they have an extremely low chance of winning. If you had to back this selection, your payout will be large. Say you placed £10 on Brazil. That would be £10 X 20.00 = 200 pounds. You would be making £190 profit. You are risking a little to win a lot. In that same way you could lay the selection. If Brazil wins, you would have to pay out the liability of £190. Here, you are risking a lot to win a little.

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Fractional Odds These odds are primarily used by U.K. bookmakers. They are expressed as 5/4, 3/2, 7/2 etc. I won’t go too in depth with explaining these odds as our main focus is decimal odds. Here is an example: 5/4 5 divided by 4 + 1 = 2.25 The 1 is always added. To compare decimal odds and fractional odds as well as the other way around you can visit Belfair’s conversion table: http://www.betfair.com/betting/OddsConversion.do?locale

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Introduction To The System To implement this system effectively, we will be using a program called Microsoft Excel. Excel is designed to create spreadsheets (enabling a user to lay out financial/other data on the screen). Microsoft Excel will be performing our calculations for us, and in the end, select the best horse to lay against. Excel is bundled with Microsoft Office. If you do not have Microsoft Office, you can download a free trial here: http://www.microsoft.com/office/editions/prodinfo/standardtrial.mspx

Other Options If you do not wish to use Microsoft Excel, you may want to try OpenOffice Calc, which is a lot similar to excel and compatible with its format. This program is distributed as freeware and is bundled with the OpenOffice suite. Download your free copy here: http://download.openoffice.org/index.html

------------------------------------------------------------------To download the spreadsheet please click here: http://www.laygenius.com/laygeniusdownload93820/spreadsheet/spreadsheet.xls

You must open this file in Excel or StarOffice Calc, then fill in the required values. It will then calculate the horse which is least likely to win. I will get back to this concept once we have covered the next chapter. -------------------------------------------------------------------

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Gathering The Resources Here I will teach you where and how to acquire the information required to implement the system correctly. We will be using a website named The Racing Post to acquire all our information. Head on over to http://www.racingpost.co.uk Click ‘Main Site’ (located at top right). You will be taken to the main area of the site.

You will need to sign up on this site to access all the information. Registration is free. Once you have signed up, we will be making use of the ‘Cards’ system. See the left hand column – click on your preferred card then the relevant date.

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The following is based on the red numbers displayed on the above image: 1. You will see the race type. Here, a class 3 for 4 year old horses. On the same line you will see the amount of money the winner will take, here £4,765.52. 2. You will see the distance and the condition of the grounds. Here, 6 furlongs with the ground condition being soft. I will get back to what the conditions mean later. 3. This column displays the horses’ name. 4. This column displays the recent form of the horses. Looking at “Aliceinwonderland”, you will see it has come sixth, fifth, third and second in its last 4 races. It came second in its most recent race. 5. The number to the right of the horse’s name is the amount of days since it last ran. 6. This column displays the name of the person who trained the horse. 7. This column displays the horse’s jockey. 8. The RPR column is the Racing Post Rating of the horse. 9. The betting forecast is a rough indication of what Racing Post thinks the price of each horse will be. 14

10. The spotlight verdict shows which horse has the best chance of winning. This is called a tipster service. Letters next to the horses name: P – Pulled up F – Fell U – Unseated Ground conditions: Good – The ground hasn’t experienced much rain, and the racing conditions are perfect. Heavy – There has been heavy rain and the racing conditions are very poor. Soft – There has been some rain, the ground will be soft. Firm – There hasn’t been rain for days. The ground is possibly cracked, worsening racing conditions. Below this card you will find even more information…

Here the Postdata tab is displayed.

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Here the Selections tab is displayed. It displays the horses’ name that each tipster has chosen. ------------------------------------------------------------------By now you would have noticed that The Racing Post supplies effective information to help us select the horse which is most likely to lose. Please take some time to explore the site, and become familiar with it. Remember that horses always race against other horses that are in the same league as them.

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Implementing the System Make sure you have downloaded the spreadsheet that is mentioned on page 10. Open the spreadsheet in Microsoft Office or OpenOffice Calc (or another program you may prefer). You will see the different pages (steps) at the bottom. We will start with the first page working our way to the last page. You may want to look at the next chapter before starting here, as it shows examples of what I’m going to show you in this chapter. Step 1 • You should be on the first page. Copy all the horses’ names into the “Horses Name”. Copy all the laying odds into the “Lay Odd” table. The best horses to use will automatically be selected. Remember if a horse’s odds are something like 1.5 there is a 90% chance it will win. Avoid races with these horses. Step 2 • Go to page 2/step 2. In the “Lay Odd’ table you should see red or/and purple highlighting. The purple represents you losing a larger amount of money if the horse wins than the red. This is to give you an indication of what you could lose. • Make sure you have The Racing Post website open, and viewing the race you are using. You will be using information off this site in this step and the next. • For each of the horses with a purple or red lay column highlight, you must do the following… (If there is no

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purple or red highlighting this tells you that the odds are too high to bet on.) You must enter the following in the factor columns on the spreadsheet: • Factor 1: enter a 5 if the horse and/or jockey is very average. Give this step special consideration. To see statistics on the jockey and trainer, click on their names. Make your decision from these statistics by comparing them to the other horses. If you notice that both the trainer and jockey are reasonably good, enter a 0 instead. • Factor 2: Look at the recent form column. If the horse has never raced before, enter a 7. If the horse has only raced once, enter a 5. If none of this applies, enter a 0. • Factor 3: Look at the spotlight verdict section. If the horse has a bad/negative review enter a 5. If not enter a 0. • Factor 4: If the horse has not run for 90 days or more, enter a 5. If the horse has not run for 150 days or more, enter a 7. If this step doesn’t apply, enter a 0. • Factor 5: Look at the Postdata tab. If there are 3 or more horses with the same recent form and ability, enter a 5. If only two horses, enter a 2. If this step doesn’t apply enter a 0. • Factor 6: Still looking at the Postdata tab – If the horses’ RPR rating is less than 50, enter an 8. If less than 80, enter 2. If this step doesn’t apply enter 0. • Factor 7: Enter 3 if there are more than 13 runners in the race. If more than 10 runners enter a 2. If less than 9, enter 0. Step 3 • On the second last page will be the horses’ name, followed by the chance of it losing (expressed in

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percentage). All you have to do is select the worst horse from here and lay it. Step 4 • The graph displayed on this page will give you a clear indication of the chance your horse has of losing compared to other horses.

If the best horse has less than a 50% chance of losing, this may not be a good race to bet on. I would advise using another race which fits the perfect criteria of this system.

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Examples Step 1:

Step 2:

Step 3:

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Essential Websites

http://www.betfair.com The recommended site for trading. http://help.betfair.com An overview of how Betfair works. http://www.racingpost.co.uk Our resource site. http://www.betfair.com/betting/OddsConversion.do?locale

The odds conversation table. http://www.bfguide.com/ A very good Betfair guide. If you a beginner I recommend this.

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End Notes It is important for all gamblers to only trade with money they can afford to lose. Remember that no trading system can guarantee 100% winnings. There will always come a time when you will lose, but in the long run your winnings will cover your losses. Always bet to lose 10-15% of your bank. That way it will be easy to make back from what you could have lost. You may notice that it’s extremely hard to profit from a £50 bank (or less). I would recommend AT LEAST £100. Remember that in order to earn an income laying horses, you will need a large bank. It’s impossible to make a lot of money from a small bank (you could, however, slowly build your bank up over time). Keep a record of all your bets (use a spreadsheet). This way you will be able to see where you went wrong and see what mistakes you made etc. This will prevent you from making the same mistake twice. Paper trade for the first few days of using this system. This way you won’t have to risk your money during the process of getting to know and understanding the system. This concludes the system. Good luck!

http://www.laygenius.com/laygeniusdownload93820/spreadsheet/BetTracker.xls

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