La Certeza Absoluta y Otras Ficciones- Didactica

December 24, 2018 | Author: Cris Malca S. | Category: Probability, Confidence Interval, Sample Size Determination, Probability And Statistics, Statistics
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LIBRO DE PERE GRIMA...

Description

DP]KX> V@X@ OXAGD

CKU U@EX@]KU M@ CD @U]DMÇU]AED

CD E@X]@^D  D H U K C P ] D Q K]XDU IAEEAKJ@U. AJ]@OXDJ]@U> EDVDXDEBAJ, @CADJD GDCED, EXAUB AHDÔ@^, OADJGDXEK •





EDVÇ]PCK 4>

CD OXDJ @VAM@GAD M@C EÕC@XD M@ 420= Mastratk m` Udbk Ordj Hr`tdôd

Ckjmr`s ― Ckjmr`s-

Gäs m` tr`s eudrtks m` cd pkhcdeaõj dhdjmkjõ sus edsds. @j cd edcc` Hrkdmwael Hrkdmwael s` `jeu`jtrd cd iu`jt` m` doud pþhcaed.

 Nkbj Ujkw, Ujkw, `gaj`jt` `gaj`jt` g`maek. @j Dokstk m` m` `s` dôk s` m`ecdrõ ujd t`rrahc` `pam`gad m` eõc`rd.

 D C D E D ^ D EXAGAJDC

CD IP@X^D M@ PJ OXÄIAEK

X@UPGA@JMK MD]KU G@MAMDU G@MAM DU M@ ]@JM@JEAD ]@JM@JEAD E@J]XDC G`mad • G`madjd • Gkmd •

G@MAMDU G@MAM DU M@ MAUV@XEAÕJ MA UV@XEAÕJ Xdjok Ydradjzd Ydrad jzd y m`svadeaõj tçpaed • Ek`iaea`jt` m` vdradeaõj • •

G@MAMDU G@MAM DU M@ VKUAEAÕJ V KUAEAÕJ Eudrtac`s • M`eac`s • V`re`jtac`s •

ICKX@JE@ JAO]BJODC@ Y`rdjk m` 4 20 5 , Ajocdt`rrd c` m`ecdrd cd ou`r ou`rrd rd d Xusa Xusad. d. @std ou`rrd iu` cd prag`rd s`ouamd pkr r`pkrt`rk m` gdj`rd qu`` bdy qu bdy iktk iktkord ordiçiçds ds.. @c gajastrk m` ou`rrd Hratäjaek `jvçd uj eu`rpk m` `ji`rg`rds d cd ou`r ou`rrd rd..

VKXE@J]DN@U> VDX@E@J AJKI@JUAYKU V@XK UKJ V@CAOXKUKU Cks Cks pkr pkre`jt e`jtdn dn`s `s s` pu`m pu`m`j `j pr`s pr`std tdrr d ekj iujeakj`s j`s y gdc`jt`j t`jmam mamks, pkr pkr ck jk `std std m`gä m`gäss `jtr jtr`t`j `t`j`r `rs` s` uj pkek `j `st` t`gd t`gd..

@N@GVCKU> Pj o`c su`c` v`jm`rs` `j hkt`ccd m` ?06 ?06 ee y dbkrd, pkr `c gasgk pr`eak, cd hkt`ccd `s m` 4666 e. »Tuá pkr pkre`jt e`jtdn dn`` m` o`c o`c `stäj `stäj r`odc `odcdj djmk mk;; 

M`p`jm` m` skhr` quá vdckr s` edceuc` `c pkre`jtdn` > •

Ukhr` `c ekjt`jamk ajaeadc s` r`odcd `c 55% 806

 ß 466 7 55%



Ukhr` `c ekjt`jamk iajdc `c 80% 806

 ß 46 466 6 7 80%



Cks h`j`iaeaks m` ujd `gpr`sd d pdsdmk m` uj 5 d uj =% bdj dug`jtdmk 8 pujtks pkre`jtudc`s. ¡¡V@XK JK PJ 4% !! ¡Jdmd qu` v`r ekj m`ear `rrõj`dg`jt` qu` bd suhamk uj 4%! 4 5

ß 466 7 55%



Pj v`jm`mkr v`jma jmaõ `c dôk pds pdsdmk pkr `c vdck dckr m` 46 gacckj`s m` `urk urks. Uu khn`tavk pdrd `st` dôk `rd dug`jtdr tdr su ideturdeaõj `j uj 9%. @c v`jm`mkr bd ckordmk v`jm`r sõck pkr vdckr m` 46,5 gacckj`s. »Tuá pkre`jtdn` m` khn` khn`ta tavk vk bd ckor ckordm dmk; k;

-Ua `c kh khn` n`ta tavvk `s `c ajer jer`g`j `g`jtk tk,, sõck sõck ekjs ekjsao aou` u` `c 06 06%. %. 6.9     ß 466 7 06% 6.5   

-V`rk, sa s` ajt`rpr`td qu` `c khn`tavk `rd v`jm`r 46,9 y d v`jma `jmamk mk 46 46,5 ,5 , bd ckor ckordm dmkk `c 1? 1?,8 ,8% % 46,5  46,9 

 ß 466 7 1?,8%

JK @U CK TP@ VDX@E@> CD C D VDXDMKND M@ UAGVUKJ •

Vkre`jtdn`s ockhdc`s ekg ekgpdrd pdrdjm jmkk orup orupks ks qu qu`` d su v`z ekjta`j`j vdrads pdrt pdrt`s `s,, pu pu`m `m`` pdr pdr`e`r `e`r qu qu`` keurr` ujd eksd eudjmk `j r`dcamdm `stä keurra keurra`jmk `jmk ktrd. ktrd.



Pjd ordj ekgpdôçd dhr` ujd ju`vd iähraed er`djmk 806 pu`stks m` trdhdnk `j cks m`pdrtd rtdg`j g`jtks m` ekgprd prds, gkjtdn` y dcgdeáj. @j tktdc s` pr`s`jtdj 500 500 bkghr` hr`s y 580 gun`r`s, m` cks eudc`s skj dmgatamks 416 bkghr`s (`c 05,1%) y 96 gun`r`s (`c 42,0%). U` ekgp ekgpru ru`h `hdd qu` qu` `c jav jav`c m` pr`p pr`pdr drde deaõ aõjj m` bkgh bkghrr`s y gun` gun`rr`s `s saga sagacd cdrr `jtr `jtr`` cks cks dspa dspard rdjt jt`s `s d edmd m`pdrtdg`jtk. »Vkm`gks ds`ourdr qu` s` bd maseragajdmk d cds gun`r`s; Cd Cks mdtk mdtkss skj skj cks cks saou saoua` a`jt jt`s `s>> r`sp r`spu` u`st stdd `s JK. Cks DUVAXDJ]@U M@VDX]DG@J] K

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 D]@ J E A Õ J C D U @ U E D C D U V P @ M @ J  D]@ @JODÔDX. Dghks r`pr`s`jtdj cks gasgk vdckr`s, cd mai`r`jead m`c oräiaek rdmaed `j cd `sedcd v`rtaedc.

EDVA]PCK 8

» VDXD TP@ UAXY@J C DU VXKHDHACAMDM@U;

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4 mdmk ta`j` 9 edrds y tkmds ta`j`j cd gasgd prkhdhacamdm m` sdcar>

9.9.9 7 849

Cd prkhdhacamdm m` qu` sdcod 46 k 44 `s cd gasgd 8?/849 76. 480

@C VXKHC@GD M@C EDHDCC@XK M@ G@XÁ

(NPODMKX DIAEAKJDMK Q

IACÕUKIK)

ODJD D> 6,0+ 6,0 +6,80 6,807 76,?0 ODJD H> 6,80

M`h` t`rgajdr `c nu`ok

D- H 6,0

Odjd D, prkhdhacamdm 7 6,0

5 -4

D-H 8 -4 6,0

6,0

D- H 8 -8

D- H

Odjd D, prkhdhacamdm 7 (6,0)(6,0) 7 6,80

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D- H

Odjd H, prkhdhacamdm 7 (6,0)(6,0) 7 6,80

C D VXKHDHACAMDM Q UPU C@Q@U •



Vrkhdhacamdm 7 Edsks idvkrdhc`s /edsks pksahc`s. Bdy ktrks `jikqu`s qu` ekjsam`rdj cd prkhdhacamdm ekgk cd prkpkreaõj qu` keurr` `c sue`sk dc dug`jtdr ajm`iajamdg`jt` `c jþg`rk m` `xp`rag`jtks.



 Nkbj L`rraeb, L`rraeb, `j prasaõj cdjzk 46666 v`e`s ujd gkj`md dc dar`, dar`, X`suctdmk> 069? edrds y =155 erue`s.

@C EKJM@ M@ HPIÕJ, EA@J]ÇIAEK IXDJEÁU M@C UAOCK RYAAA

LDXC V@DXUKJ, PJK M@ CKU VDMX@U VDMX@U M@ CD @U]DMÇU]AED DE]PDC

@stumadr cd pkhcdeaõj `xbdustavdg`jt` `s edsa agpksahc`

U` `xtrd`j ekjecusakj`s skhr` `c tkmk gardjmk ujd pdrt`

U` `cao` ujd pdrt` m` cd pkhcdeaõj (gu`strd), pdrd `stagdr sus edrdet`rçstaeds.

@U]DMÇU]AED

Cd gu`strd m`h` s`r r`pr`s`jtdtavd m`c ekjnujtk m` cd pkhcdeaõj.

»EPDJ]KU V@E@U BDQ BDQ @J @C CDOK; C DOK; »EPÄJ]KU ]D ]D RAU BDQ BDQ @J PJD EAPMDM EAPM DM;;

V@E@U

]DRAU

4. V`sedr ujd gu`strd, gdredrcks y m`vkcv`rcks.

4. U` sdedj vdckr`s m` ujd pkhcdeaõj jug`rdmd.

8. M`ndr pdsdr uj ta`gpk ekjsam`rdhc`s (bdstd qu` `stáj masp`rsks).

5. Bde`r cks eäceucks>

 



 

8. Pjd ikrgd m` bdccdr `c jþg`rk tktdc `s>  7 8ү ∘ 4

5. Ktrd kpeaõj `s ekjsam`rdr cd sag`trçd. =. Uaj `ghdrok cd g`nkr `stagdeaõj s`rçd>   +

   

∘4

»TPÁ VXKVKXEAÕJ M@ BKODX@U ]A@J@ EKJ@RAÕJ D AJ]@XJ@]; BKODX> Yava`jmd `j cd qu` ekjvav`j cd gdykr pdrt` m`c dôk ujd k gds p`rskjds qu` `stäj `gpdr`jtdmds. EKJ@RAÕJ D AJ]@XJ@]> Eudjmk `std hdnk su ekjtrkc `c ekjtdr ekj `ccd k m`ndr m` t`j`rcd.

GDXO@J M@ @XXKX> Ydradhac dradhacamdm amdm m` ju`strd ju`st rd `stagdeaõj `st agdeaõj.. AJ]@XYDCK M@ EKJIADJ^D> @s `c ajt`rvdck qu` ajecuy` `c gdro`j m` `rrkr.

–@C VDX]AMK D DY@J]DND DC VDX]AMK H @J 5,9 VPJ]KU‗ 8. M`p`jm` m` cd s`ouramdm ekj cd qu` s` m`s`d r`dcazdr cd `stagdeaõj, d g`jkr ajt`rvdck m` ekjiadjzd, g`jkr tdgdôk m` cd gu`strd.

4. M`p`jm` m` cd pr`easaõj ekj qu` s` m`s`d t`j`r cks r`suctdmks. D g`jkr gdro`j m` `rrkr `r rkr,, gdykr tdgdôk m` cd gu`strd.

5. M`p`jm` m`c v`rmdm`rk vdckr m` cd v`rmdm`rk prkpkreaõj qu` s` m`s`d `stagdr, d gdykr vdradhacamdm, gdykr tdgdôk m` cd gu`strd.

»Euäc m`h` s`r `c tdgdôk m` cd gu`strd pdrd qu` cks r`suctdmks s`dj iadhc`s;

=. M`p`jm` m`c tdgdôk m` cd pkhcdeaõj, d gdykr tdgdôk m` cd pkhcdeaõj s` r`qua`r` gdykr tdgdôk m` cd gu`strd.

¡UKXVX@UD! @C ]DGDÔK ]DGDÔK M@ CD C D GP@U]XD EDUA JK M@V@JM@ M@C ]DGDÔK M@ CD VKHCDEAÕJ »C` bde` idctd sdc d cd skpd; • •

@c tdgdôk m` cd gu`strd jk m`p`jm` m` cd pkhcdeaõj. Ua cd gu`strd jk `s r`pr`s`jtdtavd, dug`jtdr su tdgdôk jk r`su`cv` `c prkhc`gd.

»Euäc `s ga orupk sdjouçj`k; •



@c agpdetk m` cd bkgko`j`amdm `s gds agpkrtdjt` qu` `c tdgdôk m` cd pkhcdeaõj. Ua cd pkhcdeaõj `s p`qu`ôd, cd gu`strd er`e` räpamdg`jt` dc dug`jtdr cd pkhcdeaõj, p`rk d pdrtar m` ea`rtk vdckr s` gdjta`j` `stdhc`.

@C VKM@X CK MD CD C D DC@D]KXA@MDM DC@D]KXA@MDM Cd `jeu`std qu` edghak cds `jeu`stds> Cdjmkj ir`jt` d Xkks`v`ct.

Ukrt`ks pkcágaeks pdrd `c s`rvaeak gacatdr

»Ua k sa; Ajicu`jead m` ekgk s` ikrgucdj cds pr`oujtds

@jeu`stds –Ajikrgdc`s‗

Uu`jd `c t`cáikjk…

p`rk ust`m jk `std `j su edsd. Cds `jeu`stds t`c`iõjaeds.

PJ EDUK VDX]AEPC VDX]AEPCDX> DX> CKU UKJM@KU @C@E]KXDC@U Cd ajt`jeaõj m` vktk vd edghadjmk.

»D quaáj vktdräj cks ajm`easks;

M`c pkre`jtdn` m` vktks dc jug`rk m` `sedôks

Cd idctd m` saje`ramdm `j cds r`spu`stds.

V`rk cd `stdmçstaed sa iujeakjd.

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