Istanbul Demographics

3.3 – DEMOGRAPHICS Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey is home to 10,072,447 people [2000 census], making it one of the most populated cities in the world. The population is spread out in a roughly symmetrical pattern on both continents, with the highest density on the European side. [Fig 1] About 75 percent of Istanbul residents are of Turkish ethnic origin; the remainder of the population is made up mostly of immigrants from Eastern Europe. Turkey is a secular state, though 99% of the population is Islamic.

The relatively high immigrant population and somewhat European

character in Istanbul result in a significantly smaller majority of Muslims within the city.

Fig 1 Istanbul is a unique city in many regards. Most of the people living in Istanbul are immigrants from rural Turkey, from a wide variety of local cultures. The municipality has an almost even distribution of males and females, though men generally dominate the workforce and society. The population boasts a high literacy rate, somewhere between 80 and 90 percent. Most of the employed work in manufacturing industries; most people between the age of 20 and 65 are or have been married. Age Distribution The population of Istanbul is a fairly young one. In 1990, the 15-19 age group was the largest of the total population. Males make up 50.5 percent of the population and females 49.5 percent. Men outnumber women in almost all age groups except after age 64, where the trend shifts.

Average life expectancy is 65, but somewhat higher for women. [Fig 2] The next largest age groups in the population are the 10-14 and 25-33 age groups.

80 - 84 70 - 74 60 - 64 50 - 54

Female Male

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30 - 34 20 - 24 10 - 14 0-4 0

[Fig 2]

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Distribution by age and gender

The population distribution pattern can be used, as an indicator of services that are needed today, and also what will be needed in the next 10 to 20 years. The number of women in childbearing age indicates great potential for population growth. A natural increase coupled with continued inmigration could present a serious crisis for the city.

Education One major need for the growing young population of Istanbul will be its education. Turkey’s literacy rate in 1990 was approximately 81 percent. A national educational policy, had made primary education free and compulsory to both boys and girls. In 1998 the age limit for compulsory education was extended from five to eight years [Howard 2001]. Because of the differences in rural and urban culture, the literacy rate for big cities such as Istanbul may be

higher than for the rest of the country. Census data reveals that more men are literate than women.

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Fig 3 The disparity in the educational level of the gender can be attributed to two factors; military compulsory training for men and traditional cultural practices, which place more emphasis on the education of boys than girls. Because of the overall small difference between the number of men and women, the disparity in education is not a very dramatic one for Istanbul. However, according to Douglas Howard [2001], the disparity is more obvious in rural areas where tradition prevents young girls from enjoying the equal educational opportunity granted to both boys and girls. For example, since 1998, children living in more rural areas have to be bused to schools in bigger towns. Parents were afraid to send their daughters far distances on a bus with boys without chaperones.i They were more concerned with preserving their daughters for marriage than they were with ensuring that they got an education.

Fifteen months of military service is required of all male citizens[Howard 2001]. Men are taught reading and writing while enlisted in the military. The military might have influenced the extension of the compulsory education age in 1998. According to Howard the military has traditionally played an important political role in the Turkish government. Its influence in changing the education policy might have been the military’s way of ensuring that young men entering the service are already at a certain educational level, relieving them of the task of having to teach reading and writing skills. While the city of Istanbul boasts a high literacy rate, it is important to have a deeper understanding of the education of the population. It should be noted that the educational level attained by the majority of the population is basically an elementary level education. On a world scale, especially in the developed world, this might be considered less than minimum-level. In most developed countries, completion of high school is considered an acceptable minimum level education; less than half of the population has attained this level in Turkey. 4000000

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[Fig 4]

Literate

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This fact could have far-reaching implications on the development of the city and the population. For example, the education level of any population determines employment and income to a large extent. For Istanbul this means that a great portion of its population will be earning minimum wage and will be employed in unskilled jobs. The potential revenue from taxes for the city will be far less than it would have been if a large portion of the population were being paid more. This could also affect the social services that can be provided for the population and whether these services will have to be provided for free or whether the population can be expected to pay. The more dependent the population is on the state, the thinner the distribution of available resources. The number of college graduates is extremely low. The lack of a higher education level for the majority of the population is in fact a major liability to the city’s economic growth and development. Istanbul’s goal for the future [Tuncay & Kücük] would be to obtain world city status, leaning more towards the commercial and technological service type industry than manufacturing. With this goal in mind the government will also have to consider the educational level of its population. A greater effort is needed to increase the number of college graduates to supply the potential job market that might follow the expected economic shift, if the city is to be successful in its quest for global status. A commercial, business oriented city, serving an international market will require a different work force. The challenge is to prepare that work force adequately for the new job potentials. The plan for the Greater Municipality [3.2.7] has mentioned that the city will continue to increase scholarships for Master and PhD students, a generous gesture on the part of the city. But what is greatly needed is a push for higher education levels further down the education chain. Maybe what is needed is a national push such as the one that was enforced in the early years of the Republic of Turkey.

Migration Istanbul can be considered a city of immigrants since more than 60 percent of its residents were born outside of Istanbul [Sonmez, 1996:125]. The city has grown faster as a result of migration than it has by natural growth, according to Unsal, Erbas and Cavusoglu ii.

Istanbul has

experienced population increase by migration of up to 500,000 people annually. The Industrial Plan for the city of Istanbul in the Master Plan of 1937 might have been the catalysis for the flood of rural migrants into the city and something that would have far reaching effects on the growth and development of the city.( Istanbul also experienced growth from international immigration in the early industrialization period) Migration not only affected the population growth but also transformed neighborhoods and reshaped the city form. Neighborhoods that once were mostly

residential and dominated by more upscale residents were transformed physically to accommodate industries. Industrialization also changed the demographics of some of these neighborhoods as the wealthier residents moved out and were replaced by poor migrant workers. This has in some cases led to a deterioration of the neighborhood and the creation of illegal houses called gecekondus to spring up near industries. From 1985 to 1990 alone, 995,717 people moved to Istanbul. The 2000 census indicated that, except for a few, most boroughs recorded an increase in population over the total amount recorded in 1997. Most of the immigrants migrate from Northern and Central Anatolian regions, but as indicated in the diagram below the immigrants come from all over Turkey.

(Income and settlement of newcomers according to their place of birth) Over the years, changes in the rural environment -including reduced the demand for manual labor, increased mortality rate, a decrease in overall agricultural production due to deteriorating soil fertility, terrorism and the availability of education to more rural families- have made the city of Istanbul a more attractive alternative [Foundations of Turkish Social Structure; 1]. Some boroughs, such as Kucukcekmece and Umraniye recorded over 15% of population growth in the 1990 census. Buyukcekmece and Gaziosmanpasa are also popular destinations for immigrant

settlers; Buyukcekmece recorded a 38% and Gaziosmanpasa a 17% increase. Traditional settlement areas such as Kadikoy have become less attractive to immigrants because of overcrowding and high rental rates. There is also movement from borough to borough but most of the apparent growth in the boroughs can be attributed to rural to urban migration. It is customary for new immigrants to settle in areas where there is an established community of friends or relatives creating enclaves of residents in each borough that represents their town or region of birth. The volume and rate of migration flow has presented one of the biggest challenges facing Istanbul today, leading to illegal housing and the overloading (and sometimes pirating) of utilities and other infrastructure. This puts the poorest at a great disadvantage because they are the ones who suffer most from the lack of services. In addition to not being able to provide basic services for all the residents, there is also the challenge of keeping them safe from the risk of earthquakes. This requires not only financing but also the power and will of the municipal government to enforce land use policies that will better manage development and to enforce seismic codes on all buildings in the city. Overall, some serious steps have to be taken to manage the growth of the city. Mitigation has to begin with migration; it should either be controlled at the borders or plans should be made to accommodate the arriving immigrants with legal, affordable housing.

Employment Turkey’s leading employment sector is agriculture followed by service, industry and construction. According to 1990 census the leading employment sector in Istanbul was the manufacturing industry. Service industry, community/ social and personnel services and construction are other sectors employing a great portion of the population. Agricultural activities (limited to special areas such as the Black Sea region), utilities and mining among others make up the remainder of the sectors that form the employment pool in Istanbul [Fig. 4] More men are employed than women in almost all sectors, except for education, health related jobs and clerical jobs as shown in Fig 5. This is attributed to both culture and the disparity in the education of the genders, as there are more educated men than there are women. Most women still follow the traditional trend to work in the home. On a global scale, there are some jobs that have traditionally been dominated by men and some by women. Jobs such as pilots and boat operators are jobs with very low representation of

females. As well there are some that are typically dominated by women. However, in Istanbul some of these jobs, such as hairdressing are dominated by men, postal employees in Istanbul are mostly men with very few women.

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1. Pilots, deck, machine officer 2. Sportsman and related jobs 3.Legislative power, high level exec. 4.Accountant, cashier etc. 5.Postman 6.Telephone, telegrapgh operator 7.Hairdresser Beautician etc.

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According to Mustafa Sonmez [1996:144] Istanbul houses 242 of the 500 largest industrial companies in Turkey.

Indicators suggest that manufacturing is still a major factor in the

economic base of the city of Istanbul. It is still the leading employer in the city. Because of the strong manufacturing base, Istanbul is city is a very important asset to the economy of the country, contributing about 40 percent of the GNP. Istanbul’s manufacturing industries produce a wide range of goods including, leather, clothing, furniture, chemicals, bio-medical and automotive related products and

processed food. A

growing service industry has the potential to become the leading employer depending on the decentralization of the manufacturing industry and the city’s quest to become a global city.

Global status if attained might shift the economy from a manufacturing base to a business related service industry. However as mentioned earlier serious considerations have to be taken regarding how ready the population will be for this shift in terms of education. A business related economy will need more people with college level education and at least a minimum a high school ducation.

Agriculture/ fishing Mining Manufacturing Utilities/ Construction Retail/Service related Transportation/Communicatio n Finance Employment sector

The transportation sector is another viable option in terms of employment for the city. Transportation is a growing sector with potential contingent on the city’s investment in plans for expansion. Besides the rails, people are employed by the public and private bus service, as taxi operators and as ferry operators. Not many women are employed in the transportation sector. Hopefully as more jobs open up women will be better represented in this sector. Because of the limited distribution of the transportation network, most of the available jobs are limited to people in the larger towns and city centers where service exists. Expansion to the outskirts of the city might offer opportunities to more people in smaller districts and towns. The Turkish economy has undergone serious decline in the past year. The GNP has decreased, and the budget deficit in 2001 was 18.4 quadrillion [Foundations of Turkish Social Structure; 4.2.1]. Turkey is now in the process of seeking assistance from the World Bank and the IMF, and

efforts are being made to restructure the economy. One solution being examined is the privatization of the state economic units. Presently most of the industries are state owned. If these businesses are in trouble it will affect the employment rate of the country. The overall economic state of the country will undoubtedly affect the city of Istanbul. This could cause an increase in unemployment and reduction in government services and expenditure. This will have serious effects on a city trying to safe guard itself from devastation by earthquake. Mitigation efforts are very expensive and unaffordable by many. Therefore the government will have to find funds to subsidize mitigation efforts in order to protect a large percentage of national productivity.

Family Life Turkish family life is rooted in tradition and exhibits a strong sense of family, and belief in marriage and the subordination of women. Nuclear and patriarchal extended families are the more common family types. Structure is determined by location: rural versus urban. Rural extended families are linked to land owner and agricultural production where the patriarch owns the land and his sons and their wives work the farm. The landless tend to follow a more nuclear pattern. Urban families are mostly nuclear, however, at some point there might be other family members in transition, living with family until he/she is able to establish his or her own family and rent or possibly buy a house. According to Unsal, Erbas & Cavusoglu owning a residence is the most important instrument of social security in Istanbul; only 50 percent of low- income residents own their homes (this includes illegal housing). They also pointed out how difficult it is even for someone of the middle class with possibly academic employment, to purchase a house on existing salaries and working within the legal framework of the system. The average age at marriage in Turkey is 25, younger in more rural areas. Most women have at least one child, however the number of children born to a large percentage of women is 4, with some women having as many as 10 children. Failure of family farms has forced couples from an extended family setting into urban centers to establish their own nuclear families.

Trends and Forecasts There is no indication that rural-to-urban migration will stop. However, it might slow to a manageable level if policies are implemented to stem migration at the source, or if other cities can provide jobs that most of the migrants seek. Istanbul is a major metropolitan city with myriad functions that is very attractive; many people will always be drawn to the city. The city needs to anticipate this and make plans to accommodate this growth or to deter it.

The prevailing educational situation sounds very impressive but in fact needs improvement. There has to be a push for higher education beyond elementary level. More high school students have to be encouraged to attend college. The government might have to provide funding for this, but it could be a major factor in the future development of the city. Also, a shift in the economic base seems to be pending. Service related jobs and businesses might become the leading employer. i

Foundations of Turkish Social Structure Unsal, Fatms, Erbas, Erdem & Cavusoglu, Erbatur; Social Cohesion and Spatial Segregation in Globalization Era: The Case of Isatanbul; 2001

ii