THE OFFICI OFFICIA A L MAGA MAGAZINE ZINE OF TECHN TECHNICAL ICAL A NALYS NALYSIS IS
TRADERSWORLD GEODETICS, again!
Feb/Mar/A Feb/Ma r/Apr pr 2019 2019
Issue Iss ue #72
Pullback Pattern Study Harmonics and Periodicity Time's Up Market Barometer Robert Pardo Legendary Trader and Algorithmic Software Pioneer Key Principles of Trading Trading and Investing Interview with Alon Avramson Managing Risk Like a Professional Trader Avoid Av oid Blowing Up Your Trading Account
Risk and Fall of a Crypto Star: How Cycles Predicted the Crash of Nvidia The Transneptunian Paradox and Precision Timing in the Markets Review of Rob Hoffman’s Pro Trader Pack Did W.D. W.D. Gann use Planetary Hours as Short Term Cycles? Strategic Investment Mixology Introduction to Hidden Geometry
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Larry Jacobs - Winner of the World Cup rading Championship for stocks in 2001. BS, MS in Business and author of 6 trading books. Copyright 2018 Halliker’s, Halliker’s, Inc. All rights reserved. Information in this publication must not be reproduced in any form without written permission from the publisher. raders World™ (ISSN 1045-7690) is published usually 4 to 4 times a year by Halliker’s, Inc., 2508 W. Grayrock Dr., Springfield, MO 65810. Te subscription to raders World is $19.95 per year normally it it $34.95. Tat gives you access to next issues plus all the past issues in a p df format for 1 year.
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Contents Feb/Mar/Apr 2019 Issue #72 GEODETICS, again! Pullback Pattern Study by Daniele Prandelli 14 Harmonics and Periodicity by by Eric Penicka 19 Time’s Up by Rick Versteeg Versteeg 29
TTrader raders s Worl W orld d raders rader s W orld Online Expo
ONLINE EXPO
Market Barometer by George Krum 39 Robert Pardo Legendary Trader and Algorithmic Software Pioneer 45 Key Principles of Trading and Investing by Thomas Barmann 50 Interview with Alon A Avramson vramson 62 Managing Risk Like a Professional Trader to Avoid Blowing Up Your Trading Account by Dr. Dr. Barry Burns 66 Risk and Fall of a Crypto Star: how Cycles Predicted the Crash of Nvidia by Lars von Thienen 73 The Transneptunian Transneptunian Paradox and precision Timing in the Markets by Tim Bost 79 Review of Rob Homan’s Pro Trader Pack Elite for MetaStock by Larry Jacobs 87 Did W.D. W.D. Gann use Planetary Hours as Short Term Cycles? by D.K. Burton 92 Strategic Investment Mixology - Developing the Holy Grain Portfolio by Steve Selengut 96 Introduction to Hidden Geometry by Ron Jaenisch 70 Another Look at Finding Money to Save by Jacob Singer 78 Elliott Wave Analysis & Price Forecasts 2018’s Decline a Correction Within Secular-Bull Uptrend by Peter Goodburn 117
The Traders Traders World Online Expo is now continuous. Instead of having a large group of speakers at one time, we will now space it out and have only one speaker give a presentation at a time. We felt that bunching a large number of speakers together created information overload and was confusing and was not to the benefit to you the trader. From the presentations we are planning you’ll learn from different knowledgeable top traders.
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We are using brand new video technology that will broadcast live video to Facebook, YouTube & Instagram Live at the same time.
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Mindfulness in Trading: Building the Emotional Self Control to Achieve Your Potential by Rande Howell 123
We can then email you tthe he “P “Pre-Scheduled re-Scheduled Links” and the following:
How to Test Your Your Strategy on Any Market Ma rket and Put the Probabilities on Your F Favor avor by Steve Wheeler 129
Speakers Name
The Foundation For the Study of Cycles by Andrew Pancholi 136
Topic Description Date and Time
The Cosmic Setup: modern Day Astrology Look at 2019 by Ray Merriman 145
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WWW.TRADERSWORLD.COM Jan/Feb/Mar 2013
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THE TEXTBOOK OF GANN ANALYSIS...
T P L R
T HE HE U U NDERLYING NDERLYING W W ISDOM ISDOM & & P HILOSOPHY HILOSOPHY OF W. W. D. G ANN E LEGANTLY E NCODED M ASTER C HARTS ANN E LEGANTLY E NCODED IN THE M ASTER C HARTS
BY DANIEL T T.. FERRERA ’
MOST DETAILED COURSE ON GANN S MATHEMATICAL & GEOMETRICAL TOOLS! W , ." - - - W.D. G
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How to square the natural whole numbers (odd and even), along with their midpoints. How to define prices scales by "The Basis of Money How to set the proper scale, and use the 1x1 angle to square or balance price with time. How the natural squares (even & odd) sub -cycle would not be possible without understanding the Spiral chart (Square of 9).... expressing the square root as an "inner square" time period. How to assimilate all of these elements together as a sequential methodology once the "basis of Gann's forecasting method" has been worked out. How Gann s price squaring techniques and master charts are NOT completely separate and independent methods, but are tied together thru geometric angles. How the inner square root sub cycle & natural squares of numbers reveals unique market turns. ”
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I T G C The intent of Ferrera s new course is to provide the most comprehensive elaboration of W.D. Gann's most powerful technical trading tools. tools . It presents all of Gann s foundational mathematical and geometrical techniques expressed in his master calculators, angles, trend channels, squaring processes, paern formations, spiral charts and much more, leading to the clear identication of protable Trade Setups, important trend indications, and critical price/time culminations. The material further elaborates a number of Gann s most advanced geometrical tools and applications, such as the natural squares (even & odd) sub-cycle and the square root as an "inner square" time period, . It provides both practical and ’
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actionable trading signals a valuable structural perspective to any market on any time and frame. With 300 pages of detailed text, over 150 charts and diagrams, and 190 pages of the rarest Gann s supplementary material, we consider this 500 page treatise to be THE TEXTBOOK on Gann s geometrical techniques that no serious Gann analyst can be without! ’
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, AND SAMPLE SEC TIONS FOR A DETAILED WRITEUP ON THIS COURSE INCLUDING FULL CONTENTS TIONS SEE : /FERRERA ERRERA/T HE _P ATH _OF _L EAST _R ESISTANCE WWW .SACREDSCIENCE .COM / F HE ATH EAST ESISTANCE .HTM
THE ART OF THE TRADE FERRERA’S NEW COURSE— THE W. D. G ANN ANN S S S YSTEM YSTEM OF C C HART HART R R EADING EADING & & P ATTERN ATTERN T T RADING RADING ’ ’
Dan Ferrera s new trading course, The Art of the Trade , provides thorough instruction in W.D. Gann s key trading methodology, Pattern Trading. It teaches Chart Reading the way Gann himself did it, demonstrating how to trade the fundamental market patterns identified by Gann. This strategic approach to trading provides advantages that allow the trader to react to the markets in real -time, without indicator lag. Pattern Trading eliminates lagging mechanical indicators, which are always based on what the market did in the past and not the present. This style of Form-Reading, as Gann called it, allows one to make decisions in real time, as the opportunities develop on the chart. ’
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The course provides a clear set of rules for reading these market patterns to determine entry, exit, risk management, and trade management as determined by the recognition of a set of fundamental market patterns identified by Gann. This approach differs from Gann s mechanical swing indicators and from his long - pull pull position trading, providing a different perspective and alternative trading styl style, e, that most often used by Gann himself. The ttechnique echnique is equally effective on any time frame, so is as valuable for day -traders as it is for daily traders. It also generates a larger number of trades than his other trading methods. ’
FOR A DET A AILED ILED WRITEUP ON THIS COURSE INCLUDING FULL CONTENTS , AND SAMPLE S E ECTIONS CTIONS SEE : HTTP :// WWW .SACREDSCIENCE .COM / FERRERA /T HE HE -A O T RADE .HTM :// WWW / FERRERA -ART - -OF F - -THE HE -T -T RADE
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GEODETICS, again! Last year a discussion of the trials and tribulations of Facebook Facebook and the other social media companies was undertaken undertaken using Geodetics as it pertained to the natal chart. Within that article it was noted that in January 2019, the companies would experience even greater troubles than they were in 2018. It was also noted that the government could begin the process of tighter regulations on the social media companies. companies. Those outlooks have held true and are even now playing out. The troubles experienced in 2018 have morphed from data sharing/selling sharing/sel ling to claims of bias and restriction of free speech. Further, Further, there are claims of irregular irregula r application of the “terms of service”. This weekend has seen a bubbling to the surface of those claims as events in Washington DC brought to light the diering standards being applied. In a July post on Facebook, the Declaration of Independence was deemed violent and abusive but on January 21 and 22 calls for violence against teenagers were considere considered d within the terms of service. This epitomizes the bias and the conicts that were expected to playout this January. January. Over the next month there will be some resolution of the events, but they are not yet done and on January 28th more events could could begin to play out. out. Why? The geodetics geodetics are not yet in the social media’s favor and the planets are still pushing the events into play. Currently the Solar and Lunar eclipse in January of 2019 are directly pressuring the US. There are also two other events between Jupiter/Saturn and Mars/Uranus. These two events are are interacting interacting as well but not as powerfully as possible, so the events tied to them appear to be independent of each other. other. The Jupiter/Saturn Jupiter/Sat urn event is the pair pressuring the social media giant F Facebook acebook and indirectly indirectl y the others. Here is the Geodetics Map of the above 4 gravitational gravitati onal events which notes the location each event is pressuring according the geodetics and tectonic plate theory.
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Using the above geodetic map observing the January 22, 2019 earthquake map shows the strong correlations between the above geodetics map and the location of current earthquakes. earthquakes.
Comparison of the two maps reveals those points where the astronomical events are already playing out and those those areas where no activity has yet occurred. occurred. Not every line in a geod geodetics etics chart will become active every time but there are usually one or two events at each line.
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The lack of activity in the Arabic plate should be watched closely and would warrant additional study for location and exact timing of events would be wise as an event occurring there could be signicant, as the lack of movement suggest a “stuck plate,” which when it releases could release with signicant force whereas the others are already releasing the tension created by the astronomical astronomic al events since January 6 th. Reference to the USGS website provides the actual earthquake data in table form to allow more study and evaluation. evaluation. The table below list the dates, dates, time, latitude, longitude, longitude, magnitude magnitude and location name for the earthquakes over the past 24 hours that rate over a 2.5 magnitude. The last column notes the astronomical event that is tied to that location and likely causing the earthquakes. earthquakes. Note that of the 46 earthquakes, earthquakes, 42 are directly directly tied by longitude to the the astronomical events as noted in the geodetic map above. Latitude correlations have not been 1
considered. time 2019- 01- 22T13:14:02.330Z 2019- 01- 22T15:02:25.010Z 2019- 01- 22T13:20:20.690Z
latitude longitude
- 24.0703 - 179.69 - 20.3161 - 175.869 - 15.1293 - 173.142
de pth
505.75 205.08 27.4
2019- 01- 22T04:43:19.055Z 2019- 01- 22T00:45:32.743Z 2019- 01- 22T07:02:23.324Z 2019- 01-22T00:39:52.210Z 2019- 01-22T00:11:15.370Z 2019- 01- 21T16:36:39.535Z 2019- 01- 21T23:00:51.670Z 2019- 01- 22T14:45:54.889Z 2019-01- 22T16:14:46.851Z 2019-01- 22T02:25:15.388Z
58.3209 59.7681 59.7299 59.4107 60.0006 57.6383 60.2911 61.2989 61.468 69.6131
- 155.356 - 153.206 - 153.203 - 152.849 - 152.813 - 152.511 - 151.901 - 151.425 - 150.017 - 144.266
127.8 103.2 105.6 70.8 98.4 36.2 75.6 62.3 19.9 0
2019- 01- 22T09:33:31.200Z 2019-01- 22T11:39:50.870Z 2019-01- 21T18:22:36.240Z 2019-01- 22T12:39:19.390Z 2019-01- 22T08:24:46.940Z 2019-01- 22T01:50:34.100Z 2019-01- 22T08:24:44.440Z 2019- 01- 21T21:01:26.430Z
38.77133 36.6325 37.63983 32.9505 32.95233 32.94533 32.94733 37.88483
- 122.722 - 121.249 - 118.814 - 115.526 - 115.524 - 115.519 - 115.515 -113.66
1.02 4.04 2.11 7.87 1.35 9.7 15.43 3.57
2019- 01- 22T11:32:05.260Z
1.6786 - 90.4597
10
2019- 01- 21T19:08:38.580Z 2019- 01- 22T13:44:47.420Z
- 31.7883 -72.2515 - 30.2225 -71.6123
4.16 45.01
2019- 01- 22T00:41:20.700Z 2019- 01- 21T20:27:34.990Z 2019- 01- 22T04:48:13.600Z
- 30.1016 -71.4838 -33.9078 - 70.3391 19.7163 - 68.8183
50.95 103.91 24
2019- 01- 22T03:14:11.040Z 2019- 01- 22T14:02:48.120Z 2019- 0 01 1- 21 21T23:08:52. 13 130Z 2019- 01- 22T07:50:45.290Z 2019- 01- 22T08:29:51.170Z 2019- 01- 22T10:37:50.600Z 2019- 01- 22T10:14:20.760Z 2019- 01- 22T00:04:51.100Z 2019- 0 01 1- 21 21T19:26:35. 74 740Z 2019- 01 01- 22 22T06:41:09.120Z
place 4.6 South of the Fi j i Isl ands 4.9 114km NW of Nuku`al of a, Tonga 4.8 111km NE of Hi Hihi f o, Tonga
180.3101 184.1313 186.8582
5.2 86km ESE of King Sal mon, Al aska 3 77km W of Anchor Poi nt, Al aska 2.5 77km W of Anchor Point, Al aska 2.6 70km SW of Anchor Poi nt, Al aska 2.6 54km S of Redoubt Vol cano, Al aska 2.5 15km SS SSE of of K Ko odi ak St Stati on, Al Al aska 2.5 37km WSW of Cohoe, Al aska 2.7 6 68 8km N of of Ni Ni ki ski , Al Al aska 2.8 6km SSW of Bi g Lake, Al aska 3.2 6 62 2km SSW of Kaktovi k, Al aska
204.6437 Mars/Uran 206.7939 206.7968 207.1513 207.1874 207.4888 208.0992 208.5747 209.9834 215.7345
2.47 3km W of Ande rson Spri ngs, CA 2.47 15km NW of Pi nnacl e s, CA 3.04 15km E of Mammoth Lake s, CA 2.54 3k 3km S of Brawl e y, CA 3.41 3km SSE of Brawl e y, CA 3.1 4k 4km SSE of Brawl e y, CA 3.58 4 4k km SSE of Brawl e y, CA 2.57 34km N of Ente rpri se , Utah
237.2782 1/21/2019 LE 238.7512 241.1863 244.4743 244.4765 244.4807 244.4852 246.3402
4.7 267km N of Pue rto Ayora, Ecuador
269.5403
4.7 104km W of IlIl l ape l, Ch Chi l e 4.8 39km SW of Coqui mbo, Chi l e
287.7485 1/6 SE & Sat- Jup 288.3877
4.6 21km SW of Coqui mbo, Chi l e 288.5162 4.8 39km SE of Pue nte Al to, Chi l e 289.6609 2.81 78km NE NE o off Sa Sant nta aB Bar arba bara ra de Sam Sama ana na,, D Dom omii 291.1817
- 67.5026 - 66.8655 - 66 66. 4 46 696 - 65.8138 - 65.771 - 65.542 - 65.4478 - 64.7083 - 64 64. 6 67 716 - 29 29.245
17 16 51 42 41 43 60 41 38 10
2019- 01- 22T00:56:54.540Z 2019- 01 01- 22 22T05:10:03.670Z 2019- 01 01- 22 22T01:57:00.430Z
- 10.319 118.8937 -1 10 0.4663 119.0309 -1 10 0.4432 119.0651
10 27.01 33.3
4.5 72km SSW of Kahal e , Indone si a 6.4 85km SSW of Bo Bogorawatu, In Indonesi a 4.8 81km SSW of Bogorawatu, Indonesi a
118.8937 LE 1/21 119.0309 119.0651
2019- 01- 22T00:08:31.870Z 2019- 01- 21T23:59:22.600Z 2019- 01-22T03:19:28.870Z 2019- 01-21T16:47:48.310Z 2019- 01- 22T12:52:28.200Z 2019- 01- 22T12:11:37.300Z
- 10.3703 - 10.3113 22.209 4.5172 - 8.3026 - 8.343
10 16.77 35.26 11.26 62.72 34.98
4.9 6 4.9 5 4.7 4.6
119.1148 119.1472 121.4315 126.9002 128.7052 128.7177
18.4633 18.1778 19. 3 30 021 19.048 19.0485 18.9921 18.977 18.8193 18. 6 63 333 41.4297
m ma ag
119.1148 119.1472 121.4315 126.9002 128.7052 128.7177
2.73 2.54 2. 7 79 9 2.57 2.73 3.02 2.68 3.28 2. 9 92 2 4.9
29km WN WNW o off R Rii ncon, P Pu ue rto Ri Ri co 7km WN WNW of Ad Adj untas, Pu Pue rto Ri Ri co 93k m N of of T Tii er erras Nu Nu ev ev a ass P Po on iie e nt nte , P ue ue rt rto 68km N of V i e que s, Puerto Ri co 68km N of Suare z, Pue rto Ri co 69km NNE of V i eque s, Pue rto Ri co 72km NN NNE o off LLu uqui l l o, P Pu ue rto Ri Ri co 45 45km km NNW of Roa Road d Town, British Virgin Virgin Isl 24k m NN W of R Ro oad Tow n n,, Bri ti ti ssh h V ir irgi n I sl sl 271km NE of S Sa anta Cruz das Fl o orre s, s, Portuga
72km SSW of Bogorawatu, Indone si a 65km SS SSW o off B Bo ogorawatu, In Indone si a 67km SSE of Tai tung Ci ty, Tai wan 187km E ES SE of of S Sa arangani , Ph P hi l i ppi ne s 290km W of Sauml aki , Indone si a 289km W o off S Sa auml aki , In I ndone s i a WWW.TRADERSWORLD.COM
292.4974 LE 1 1//21 293.1345 293. 53 5304 294.1862 294.229 294.458 294.5522 295.2 295.291 917 7 295. 32 3284 330.755
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Examination of the data table above shows that there are 5 foci of the gravitational energy from the three current events and the one upcoming event being revealed. By following the earthquake locations over the next month, the increase or decrease in activity correlating to the interaction of the gravitational gravitational elds and the earths plates could help to warn about points of activity that could result in signicant natural events. How does this correlate to the markets? markets? The markets are tied to the the vibrational vibrational or gravitational gravitati onal energy that plays out on the earths crust. Using a type of “Seasonal” forecast that has been developed from the tectonic plate theory, major and minor turns in the markets can be anticipated. anticipa ted. Does event create activity? No,the butlikelihood one should know when the earth is reacting to anevery astronomical eventmarket as it does increase of a market event occurring as well. For instance, in the table above, the geodetic position of 155W in the Alaska region is active. This correlates to an astronomical conguration that is beginning to occur between Mars and Uranus in the sign of Aries. The event will occur between February February 9 and 13, 2019. The degree of the event is 28 Aries which correlates to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) natal position of Saturn and is in opposition to natal Neptune. Uranus has been holding a general position over these points since before the 2016 election hence the erratic, revolutionary, reactionary type of chart patterns and moves being observed. As it moves out of the end of Aries in March of 2019, there might be some relief to the type of whipsawing action being experienced, experienced, but that also could be the nal trigger for a major move to the downside as the “energy” leaves the Saturn and Neptune natal points. What about other US Natural events? events ? The January 6th Solar Eclipse and the recent Jupiter/ Saturn events are pressuring some US locations, and earthquakes in areas that are not usually active could be seen along the east coast, like the Maryland Jan 15, 2019 6:30 pm earthquake. There has also been an increase in Yellowstone National Park geyser activity which ties to the Jupiter/Saturn Jupiter/S aturn event due to the geodetic correlation there. Study of the conguration suggest a possible “burp” from Yellowstone over the next month as the gravitational energy nishes playing out. The Steamboat Geyser Geyser began blowing blowing again after nearly 50 years years of silence righ rightt on time in 2018 as the Jupiter/Saturn Jupiter/Saturn aspect aspect began to activate. activate. It is nally passed in February February for a bit and things should begin to calm in the region but likely not before increased activity is again noted. Could Yellowstone erupt with this aspect? Not likely… In the early 1900, Alaska experienced the birth of a new volcano, Novarupta , from an astronomical astronomic al gravitation event which would be considered signicantly greater in magnitude that the current event. So, other than a bit of burping, not much more is expected from this event. There is also some concern about the Alaska coast and upper Pacic Northwest coast, as there is a possibility that the North American plate could experience a slight rotation which would play out on those areas areas where the North North American Plate meets meets its surrounding surrounding plates. The Caribbean, eastern regions regions of the Great Plains and Alaska, and the Pacic Northwest are at the greatest risk along with the western coast of Southern Mexico and South America. 2
For more information about my work and my 4 Volumes Series on the Law of Vibration, please see the following link: hp://www.sacredscience.com/BENNETT/Law-of-Vibraon-Series-Introducon.htm
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Pullback Pattern Study By Daniele Prandelli One year ago, right here in Trader’s World, I showed a study that I simply called “pullback pattern study”.
You can read this study right here: https://iaminw https://iaminwallstreet.com allstreet.com/sp500-how /sp500-how-it-repeats-its -it-repeats-itself/ elf/ (because it is a bit long to repeat the same article here and you need to read it completely to see how the study worked). Here, I want to update the same study, and see how it could have been very useful in recent months. We saw how the most important pullbacks of the last 9 years were about the same magnitude. Hence, we were able to forecast the support area of the February 2018 Low, seeing in advance a strong buying opportunity.
We sent out this chart while the Market was dropping, on February 5, 2018. We were o only 12 points in forecasting the Low in February 2018. We all know that from that Low, the S&P500 went strongly up. The January-February 2018 drop was a movement that started at 2872.87 points and nished on February 9 at 2532.69 points. The magnitude of this movement is exactly -340.18 points. Well, 8 months later, the S&P500 made a High at 2940.91 on September 21, 2019. A new descent began, and we knew in advance that we had to monitor the level of the previous pullbacks. We calculate 2940.91 minus the last magnitude, which was 340.18.
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2940.91 – 340.18 = 2600.73 The result of this level provided our next potential support, or the “make or break” level we have to monitor to see something important to happen. The drop began on September 21. The Low of October was 2603.54, on the 29 th of the month. From this Low, the S&P500 bounced to a High in November at 2815.15 points, a bounce of 212 points!
Hence, we have clearly seen, here again, a very important technique to determine future support, and we could take advantage of it with very high precision using a study that I showed you before it happened. Here we are using the same study to reveal how it worked well again.
However… In December, something I did not expect to see happened! We saw a spike under the level 2600, and a few days later, a new breakout under that level, which was the real beginning of a new, strong, fast downward acceleration.
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That breakout was the right trigger for a strong downward acceleration! This study gave you the right level you had to look at to ride (or avoid) the huge crash, when the S&P500 lost 250 points in just 6 days. Now the S&P500 is again above the level 2600. What does it mean? This is something I cannot share here, in respect of people who pay to receive our analysis and strategy, but I can say one simple thing: everything plays around two very important price levels, and that is just what you need: the level 2598 and the level 2528. Adding a forecast to this kind of study can provide a conrmation as to the right trend to follow, follow, and more important, we have an important and reliable reference point to point to understand whether we are right or wrong. This is something that people keep underestimating, in my opinion; when we take a position, and the forecast is right, usually there is not so much to worry about, we just let the position to run, in prot. However, when we open a position, but the market moves against us, how do we know that we are wrong? Where to place a reliable stop-loss? These studies give us the right point of reference, the “make or break” level, to dene where we should place a stop-loss order. This last year, I produced several forecasts, the best of which was Cotton, though it seem there is not so much interest around it (I only had 3 subscribers to the Cotton 2018 Forecast Bulletin):
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We provided this forecast in December 2017, with an impressive result. When the forecast works like that, obviously we do not care so much about the price strategy. Unfortunately, we are not always that “lucky” to work with a forecast like this, and it may happen we take a wrong position, it is normal, it happens to everyone, of course. In that case, the study of price is fundamental. fundamenta l. I see that many people are only paying attention to the timing and the get crazy when they are wrong. Price studies will often help solve this problem We provide Daily and Weekly Reports (to a limited number of subscribers) covering several Futures Markets: S&P500, 30Y T-Bonds, Crude Oil, Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Live Cattle, Gold and Silver. We also provide Annual Bulletins for S&P500, Corn & Soybeans, Live Cattle and Cotton, and have 2 trading courses, courses, one which deals with determining critical price levels, and the other generates yearly cyclical models like the Cotton forecast shown above… If you would like to learn more, please visit: https://www.iaminwallstreet.com
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T K S� G M A Scientific Correlation Correlation and Proof Proof as to When & Why the Gold Market Makes its Tops and Booms Including 100 Years of Projections out to 2100 GIVES ALL MAJOR TOPS & BOTTOMS IN GOLD FOR 100 YEARS!
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A valuable mathematically based paern in the Gold Market has been discovered which provides a series of safe and highly profitable investment opportunities in Gold for many years into the future. The book lays out this unique discovery of a highly accurate, scientifically based proof foretelling when Gold will make its tops and booms within a very narrow time window with an 90-99% accuracy. This powerful insight has proven accurate in forecasting all the Gold Market’s primary tops and booms over the past 40 years, with further verificat verification ion over 750 years. It can be applied to any investment in any highly-correlated or Gold related financial instrument, including physical Gold, Gold related Stocks, Options, ETF's, Futures, Bullion, Coins or Jewelry. Whatever level of investment experience one may have, whether a beginner or professional, this information informatio n will provide an invaluable edge for trading the Gold market for decades to come!
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H P (Part 1 of a 2 part series) By Eric Penicka In order to understand harmonics and periodicity and how they may apply to the market, we must dene them. Denitions of Harmonic: Physics . of, relating to, or noting a series of oscillations in which each oscillation has a frequency that is an integral multiple of the same basic frequency. Music - overtone. 6. Physics. a single oscillation whose frequency is an integral multiple of the fundamental frequency. Physics, music- a component of a periodic quantity, such as a musical tone, with a frequency that is an integral multiple of the fundamental frequency. he rst harmonic is the fundamental, the second harmonic (twice the fundamental frequency) is the rst overtone , the third harmonic (three times the fundamental frequency) is the second overtone, etc…
Periodicity: Word forms: plural? periodicities 1. the tendency, quality, or fact of recurring at regular intervals. With these two key words dened, we may move to understand how they impact a price/time chart. In the book, Gann Science, the term harmonic has been used as a fundamental or root tone of price, or time, or vector unit. For this article, examples will be made using Tesla stock, since it was discussed in my article in the last issue using pi as an analysis factor. Tesla operates in a eld of vibration and has a master number set like all stocks and commodities do. Gann would say that these groups of similar stocks operate in the “same eld” of vibration. Tesla rst trade date is 6-29-2010. 6-29-2010 . One of the key numbers in Tesla is 27. This is a master number or harmonic for Tesla stock that is active for the life of the stock. The following chart shows the harmonics of 27 measured from the rst trading day of the stock.
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This very simple 27 calendar day count gives some pretty good trend change hits. Weekend dates are shifted to the Friday or Monday bar. These counts can be started from rst trade date, date of incorporation, and any highs or lows or even gaps or accelerations.
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The following chart shows a count started from a gap day. day. These are harmonics or overtones of the fundamental frequency of 27.
The gap day shows a 27 count to a high pivot, the next harmonic triggers an up gap, which most traders traders would like to know when when that had the potential potential to come. The next hit is a signicant pivot high, followed by a consolidation breakout, and then the last hit triggers a sharp down move.
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Harmonics in the Bible Harmonics are discussed indirectly in the Bible. As most readers here will know, W.D. W.D. Gann was a great believer in the Bible Bible in that it held many sec secrets rets and the answers answers to everything. everything. He has said it was the greatest book ever written. The great skill of Gann was his ability to translate information from one eld such as science, math, or astrology, and create an application in the market with his translation. With this same line of thinking thinking we can read the Bible Bible with the idea of translation translation in mind. A very interesting Biblical section section is given by Matthew Matthew in 1:1-17. In this set of verses, verses, he is telling us the genealogy of Abraham to Jesus. Version (NIV) Matthew 1:1-17 New International Version The Genealogy of Jesus the Messiah 1 This is the genealogy[a] of Jesus the Messiah[b] the son of David, the son of Abraham: 2
Abraham was the father of Isaac, Isaac the father of Jacob, Jacob the father of Judah and his brothers, 3
Judah the father of Perez and Zerah, whose mother was Tamar,
Perez the father of Hezron, Hezron the father of Ram, 4
Ram the father of Amminadab,
Amminadab the father of Nahshon, Nahshon the father of Salmon, 5
Salmon the father of Boaz, whose mother was Rahab,
Boaz the father of Obed, whose mother was Ruth, Obed the father of Jesse, 6 and Jesse the father of King David. David was the father of Solomon, whose mother had been Uriah’s wife, 7
Solomon the father of Rehoboam,
Rehoboam the father of Abijah, Abijah the father of Asa, 8
Asa the father of Jehoshaph Jehoshaphat, at,
Jehoshaphat the father of Jehoram, Jehoram the father of Uzziah, 9
Uzziah the father of Jotham,
Jotham the father of Ahaz, Ahaz the father of Hezekiah, 10
Hezekiah the father of Manasseh,
Manasseh the father of Amon,
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Amon the father of Josiah, 11 12
and Josiah the father of Jeconiah[c] and his brothers at the time of the exile to Babylon.
After the exile to Babylon: Jeconiah was the father of Shealtiel, Shealtiel the father of Zerubbabel, 13
Zerubbabel the father of Abihud,
Abihud the father of Eliakim, Eliakim the father of Azor, 14 Azor the father of Zadok, Zadok the father of Akim, Akim the father of Elihud, 15
Elihud the father of Eleazar,
Eleazar the father of Matthan, Matthan the father of Jacob, 16
and Jacob the father of Joseph, the husband of Mary, and Mary was the mother of Jesus who is called the Messiah.
17
Thus there were fourteen generations in all from Abraham to David, fourteen fourteen from from David
to the exile to Babylon, and fourteen from the exile to the Messiah.
The genealogy from Abraham to Jesus is taught here by Matthew. The part of primary importance to us as traders is the last paragr paragraph. aph. The translation lesson here is to dene the word “generation” as “harmonic. “harmonic.” ” Considering that 14 generations or harmonics may be an important i mportant factor for trading, consider the 27 number of Tesla to be a “generation.” 27 isofa 378. “generation” then 27shown times on 14 the generations time If count 378 counts are followingyields chart.a
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Mathew specically states the complete lineage as 3 segments of 14 generations. Abraham to David, David to the Babylonian exile, and 14 generations from the exile to Jesus. The fundamental tone or generation has been developed out into 14 harmonics of the fundamentals and 3 periods of the 14 harmonics. This is a very important concept. 14 periods of 27 is 378 and and 3 times 378 is 1134 1134.. This count is added with the red bar counter to the same same chart section a as s the prior exam example. ple. This is an exa example mple of a periodic recurrence of a fundamental tone.
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The curious mind may want to know what a “generation” is in the Bible? Or how many “years” is 14 generations. generations. The answer has been given by Daniel in the following manner by linking what Matthew said in the New Testament to the Old Testament. The numbers may be linked to Daniel 9:24-27, which states that seventy weeks of seven years, would pass between the restoration of Jerusalem and the coming years, or 490 years, of the messiah. Daniel equates the 490 years to the lineage described by Matthew Matthew.. Daniel’s 70 times 7 weeks of years, or 490 years is equal to the 14 generations as described by Matthew. Matthew. 490 divided by 14 leaves leaves us with a generation generation equal to 35 years. years. This 490 number was given a serious go over by Gann in T u n n e l T h r o u g h t h e A i r , so it is deemed a very important counter. Generations in the Bible have also been mentioned to be 40 and 70 years. 70 is a direct harmonic of 35, and 35, 40, and 70 are all harmonically convergent at a point which would be dened as a periodic recurrence of cycles.
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In the translation here, 27 was inserted as a generation generational al harmonic for Tesla. There is no reason not to explore the natural Biblical harmonic as it was given.
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Some will bring up the point that Luke has described a dierent lineage than Matthew Matthew.. There are varying reasons for this which can be explored by interested readers. The point is that Gann researchers are looking for the cyclic implications of the teachings and not the specic surface story teachings. teachings. A good example of this is the time of Abraham to Jesus has been shown to be 14 generations or 490 years times 3 which equals 1470 years, if taken literally.. Scholars argue that the real time literally of Abraham to Jesus is around 2000 years.
QUARTERLY MAGAZINE SUBSCRIPTION Read articles explaining classical trading
There is no reason for debating this.
techniques, such as W.D. Gann, Elliott Wave,
It is more of an issue of what a Gann researcher would believe about the authors of the Bible. Are they writing a history book concerned with archiving exact times of events, or are they writing in an esoteric manner to teach the ner points of natural cyclic law?
analysis explaining indicators in eSignal,
Many of these type of translation technique are taught in my boo, G A N N S CI CI E N C CE E – The P eriodic Tab bll e & T h e L a aw w of V i b r a t i o n . Please see the following link, which more details and contents of this provides new course:
astro-trading astro-tradin g as well as modern technical NinjaTraders, MetaStock & Market Analyst. COMPLETE BACK ISSUES OF TRADERS WORLD Magazine (ISSUES 1-64) You also get our complete archive of 60 back issues from 1986 to present. This, contains articles, product reviews, hundreds of chart examples, how-to-trade articles and much format, which you can read online anytime. In every issue, you get the information you need to trade the markets better with charting, astro, cycles, oscillator tools. Works for stocks, bonds, futures, options.
www.sacredscience.com/Penicka/GannScience.htm Science.htm You can also email institute@ cosmoeconomicis.com or cosmoeconomicis.com or call 800756-6641 or 951-659-8181 for more information.
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GANN SCIENCE The Periodic Table & The Law of Vibration THE SOLUTION TO GANN S LAW OF VIBRATION ’
AS PRESENTED IN THE TICKER T ICKER INTERVIEW
B E Pk ATOMIC ELEMENTS DEFINE MATHEMATICAL STRUCTURE OF MARKETS WHAT IS TAUGHT IN THIS COURSE
This course provides the solution to the Law of Vibration, as Gann originally presented it in his interview with Richard Wycko in The Ticker and Investment Digest , in 1909. The author takes Gann s exact words and correlates them with the cuing edge science of Gann s day to demonstrate what Gann meant when he said, stocks are like atoms . He develops a system which identies the key mathematical points of force that govern the structure behind the market. The author builds a solid foundation in the Natural Sciences of Gann s day, showing how ’
’
“
”
“
”
’
the emerging science of the Periodic Table of Atomic Elements provides a system of order based upon the vibrational values of the elements themselves. When the elemental structure is determined for an individual market, a Master Number Set will Set will be dened for that market which determines its movement in price and time forever into the future. A POWERFUL & HIGHLY PR PRACTICAL ACTICAL SET OF TRADING TRADING TOOLS! 480 Pages w/Forum. w/Forum. FOR A MUC MUCH H MORE DETAILED WRITE-UP, CONTENTS, SAMPLE CHARTS & ARTICLES SEE: HTTP://WWW.SACREDSCIENCE.COM/PENICKA/GANN-SCIENCE.HTM
FOR GANN S TUNNEL THRU THE AIR A DECODER FOR ’ ’
MAGIC WORDS THRU THE ZODIAC Vol 1 - A Guide to the Work - Vol 2 - The Advanced Findings
introduces the Keys to cracking the complex symbolic code that Gann used to conceal his greatest secrets within Tunnel. It unveils a Masonic Gematria cypher which serves to decrypt references and clues concealed in names, dates and other key words thru the text. These leer/numerical leer/numerical conversions are used to determine potential anchor points for the engineering of important underlying market cycles. Volume 2 continues the research into more advanced topics and more deeply hidden and important important cycles. The insights in these two volumes represents eorts from 20 years of tireless research! Volume 1
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AquilaeSignal.com
DeLorean TIME WAVES SPX
Prot every month. Prot every month. It’s about ‘time’ to try. May 2017
80%
+ 43
January 2018
77%
+ 49
June
87%
+ 29
February
78%
+ 64
July
89%
+ 47
March
83%
+ 42
78%
+ 37
April
67%
+ 40
September
40%
-9
May
60%
+ 14
October
64%
+ 25
June
38%
- 23
November
77%
+ 43
July
67%
+ 45
December
70%
+ 26
August
60%
+3
September
60%
+ 33
October
70%
+ 100
November
75%
+98
December
60%
+67
August
Total 2017
+ 241
+ 532
How does DeLorean work?
Total 2018
DeLorean will make life and especially
Interested in a special oer?
trading more simple. For every trading
Contact us at us at
[email protected] [email protected]
day of the next month, the trend has been predicted already, already, as well as when (date/ time) to enter and exit the trade. No need for an entry or exit strategy nor to fgure out the trend or to decide what
to do. Just execute the BUY or SELL on time. Using Interactive Brokers, trades for all of the predicted month can be entered for automatic execution.
Easy does it.
Want to know more? Check our website: http://www.aquilaesignal.com
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Time’s up by Rick Versteeg CRASHING MARKETS
Last quarter of 2018 crisis was predicted in advance
There is a hidden order and rhythm
using the DeLorean indicator. indicator. A larger correction was
in the markets that is revealed by
overdue for a long time and time was running out. So
DeLorean, our time cycles model
inevitably at some point there would be a breaking point
using fractals. RED periods,
where our indicators turn RED. Finally we have witnessed
indicator below zero, forecasts down
again extreme turbulence in the stock markets which
trends, GREEN, indicator above
has upset the nancial world. Investors and traders were
zero up trends.
not accustomed anymore to wild markets, not counting
Extensive research of historic
the February 2018 ash crash, nor a bear market. A
crash and volatility events showed
decline in the SPX index (as well as many other indices)
specifc short term time patterns in
of 20% was indicated by the time patterns and triggers of
our model coinciding with fnancial
DeLorean, before it happened.
panics. These panic patterns
Ofcourse it was accompanied by bad news and
occurred in February 2018 and
expectations which did not hurt during periods where
were forecasted again for the end of November 2018.
DeLorean indicators were green. Rising interest rates, Brexit, government shut down, risk of recession, all surfaced in the last quarter of 2018.
In August we published the following DAX chart (the same for SPX) for customers, which are typically investment / hedge funds looking at the medium term:
black ck lin e is the summation of red(negative0) forces. Easy does it. The indicator is generally the same for other other indices apart from being adjusted for time zones. Because of very high correlation of major markets the indicator forecasts them all .
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This medium term indicator of DeLorean shows DeLorean shows the larger moves in the indices of stock markets. Please note how well it predicts the big moves in 2017 as well as 2018. Imagine you would have seen the indicator in August predicting a decline until december and then a strong recovery. We We have had no loss in these declining markets in markets in spite of volatility. volatility. This is an exceptional tool for investment funds to adapt exposure in the markets before markets get wild. So funds who received our predictions and followed up did not have a loss in the last quarter, other funds who did not have available available our indicator indica tor,, lost up to 15% in December. December. In between the indicated (arrows) larger swings, the smaller moves in the indicator also show smaller up trends and down trends. For example from april till June 2018 where our DeLorean indicator on a smaller swing or fractal was up (green) and from end of May turned down (red) Since our indicator basically is of fractal nature where smaller time patterns build larger ones, we can zoom in and display the hidden smaller patterns. Since end of June 2018 we have forecasted negative markets for the week of November 25th 2018 (see 2018 (see previous 2 articles in Tradersworld), which we picked because it was the epicentre of the coming nancial earthquake. Also we had discovered trigger time patterns active during that period which we discovered in researching history, especially crashes or high volatility markets. Because the indicator was very negative since the end of September, the outlook was bearish. Back to the future Take a seat in DeLorean and we will travel to the future. Every day and week there will be trends up and down, small and large. Below we list some trends, around trends, around the following dates in 2019: Up: 23-24 February, 13 May, 19-20 August, 7-8 sept (!vola) Down: 29 Down: 29 March, 10-18 April, 9 July, 24 July
What next ? Research Research is an activity that never stops and is fun to do., especially when important new information is found time and time again. So the next stp will be to complete Research of 100 years of Dow data (1900-2000) to inspect time patterns and its fractals in depth. Also checking combinations of patterns and how these work. Last but not least development of trading systems.
New research Every time we come across very interesting, expected and sometimes unexpected uctuations in the indices we predict and
research, we grab our magnifying glass to look for explanations. Consequently we will need to research our fractal time waves, cycles and time patterns to determine if history can shed light upon up and down trends in the markets, especially when it comes as a surprise. In order to gain more knowledge we therefore search our database to develop and show better information in our indicators.
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DeLorean OPEN- day to day cyles for opening trends. The short term time cycles of our DeLorean indicator are used for predicting trends at opening (DeLorean OPEN), OPEN), which has excellent results. Here the smallest up and down forces are calculated to determine if SPX, DAX or HSI will be stronger or weaker at their opening in the near future. Here we investigate our DeLorean indicator’s reading at the opening of dierent markets exactly. In the morning CET (European time) DeLorean indicator could still be red, so DAX index would be down if additionally validated. Thereafter DeLorean indicator could turn up and become green before SPX opens at 15:30 CETSee an update of performance using DeLorean OPEN on the next page.
Performance of DeLorean OPEN is strong: SPX and HSI only witnessed 1 month of loss, Dax 2. While HSI is the most volatile with some times a loss intramonth of around 300 points, SPX is the best and is getting better all the time with a record win the last quarter and January 2019 2019.. Below we will give you some examples how our DeLorean indicator for opening trends works.
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First of all look at the trend date. First signal November November 6th DOWN (column DeLorean trend). In order to prot from the expected DOWN in red you will have to SELL(entry date) November 5th and BUY back November 6th (trend date). Total prot for the month was around 97 points using ES future. First trade had a small loss. Trade for trend date November 7th (UP trend) had a prot of 21 points. (zoom in on chart below) wwww.aquilaesignal.com, mail:
[email protected], Subscribe to our Newsletter DeLorean for extra information: http://www.aquilaesignal.com/free-newsletter/,Facebook: Aquilaesignal Special oers! write us an email to get a special Tradersworld oer, 3 months DeLorean OPEN for $299, 3 months DeLorean Monthly for $ 450, 6 Months DeLorean medium Term for $595
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Of course the indicator is already visible 1 month before prices of SPX catch up. So everything you se in the chart with regard to indicator is known the 1st of November! The DeLorean indicator above is also used for DeLorean Monthly predictions (see below) You see that SPX is green at the opening of the 7th, therefore trend is UP and you are signaled to buy the 6th. In general this is how it works. The indicator should be green, at a top or rising and minimally above zero. 12 th November was down but skipped because of risk over weekend. 13th DOWN, small prot, 14th UP because of rising indicator from lows (+16). 15th DOWN because of indicator red, declining and below zero (+ 33). In general that is how it is done! However we also inspect specic time patterns (how strong these patterns are and how reliable) that build DeLoren indicator which could skip the trade. In addition a shorter term cycle is used as well. DeLorean Monthly Monthly indicator-pre indicator-predicting dicting reversa reversals ls for 1-3 days DeLorean Monthly is mostly used by day traders as well as position traders. Using DeLorean indicator you will have a high probability of knowing the upcoming trend in the markets for the next month ahead. This is the most rewarding indicator for traders, because you can see all 1-3 day cycles coming up . It can be used for option trading as well as future trading, trading delta. It looks the same as the medium term indicator, but cycles are much shorter thus providing many more entries and high probability trades. DeLorean Monthly indicator is the basis of DeLorean time cycles on stock indices, more specically the SPX, the HSI and the DAX or Eurostoxx50. If the indicator goes up from a low to the next high, prices will go up around the reversal in the indicator. Therefore this is generally the time to buy (using a simple conrmation) stock, futures or call options or write put options. When the indicator is reaching its high it is time to sell the index, selling stocks / futures, writing calls or buying puts. Below we show yo an actual example of our indicator.
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Here you can see how November 25th is in the middle of the decline with a deep red score. The period in the beginning of December at rst sight looks more positive (green) but looking at the indicator beneath it, which shows the strongest patterns only only,, it is clear that RED is dominant still. This is the case until the beginning of February 2019, in both indicators. Writing this article the last week of January the crisis -Brexit, shutdown- had not ended yet. In the not too distant future (within 2 months) indicators will become more positive. Trading system using options. We have developed a directional directional trading trading system for options using DeLorean Monthly as shown before. Directional ofcourse means that we follow the DeLorean indicator by writing / short calls or puts. If the indicator reverses from a top to the next bottom, we write calls. If it reverses from bottom to the next top, we sell puts. Contrary to the popular “strangle “ systems where traders have no clue of the next direction directio n of the index price and consequently write calls and puts at the same time, we write either calls or puts. The problem with a strangle is that by denition either the call or put looses money. When the price stays in the bandwidth there is no problem, but a big problem when it crashes out of the bandwith or a strong trend continues. The latest quarter caused heavy losses for the stranglers but delivered a very good prot for DeLorean Option trading. Additionally mention that we use SPX options because of liquidity, diversic diversication, ation, pricing and excercise almost every 2 days. Short term options are most advantageous. Below we let you see when and how it trades (zoom in to see more detail):
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Trading is based upon the swings in the indicator from top to bottom and vice versa. So a short trade (red arrow)-writing calls- will appear when the indicator starts to decline. A long trade (green arrow)-writing puts- when indicator goes up again from a bottom. The strike price is 1% above the SPX price when writing calls and 1% below the market price
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when writing puts. This way a trade will still have full prot as long as it stays within this bandwith. If not the trade is stopped out. Starting 26th of October, trading only 1 option with on average premium of $4 with maximum 2 days expiration date brings 29 trades and $6000,-+ prots in 3 months. Hitratio is very high above 90%. Normally this period would be devastating to option writers! Margin is 22k and exposure initially only around 35k because of low delta, so with 40k a healthy prot of 5% per month.
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About Our Service Specialised in forecasting forecasting the exact day of trend, months and years in advance . If you trade in s&p and you are willing to know how s&p is going to unfold in rest of year 2018 , we give you the exact daywise trend forecast of s&p of next 6 months with amazing accuracy. Astrological for forecast ecast never change as all future astrologicall events are fixed. In Sunday’s astrologica Sunday’s weekly newsletter, newsletter, we provide day-wise trend forecast of 40 major markets(stocks,indices,commod markets(stocks,ind ices,commodities,currency ities,currency,, bonds and interest rates)for upcoming week/s. Along with trend forecast we send live updates from Monday to Friday in what’s app subscribers group . In live updates we provide price & time targets based on trend forecast given in weekly newsletter . For mid term and long term traders along with daywise trend forecast of entire year , we also provide top bottom analysis of entire year,, so in advance we know the time window where important high and low are expected to be made . We year also provide price analysis, wherein we provide projected high and low of 1 yr,2 yr,3yr,4yr,5yr and 10 yr . We do not claim 100% accuracy, on rarest occasions we also prove wrong . Please read the disclaimer carefully in our website .
Testimonial I did not believe that astrology worked very well for trading but you have convinced me that it does work from watching your market calls. Good job. I know many astro forecasters and they are not all that accurate. You seem to be the best I have seen. I do like your format using the newsletter and the whatsapp for daily updates. Also you are differnt from others when you can indicate the strenght of a stock or commodity. Your calls have been quite accurate and your buys with stop have been accurate. Larry Jacobs - Editor of Traders Traders World Magazine
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Subscription Plans Click Here 15% discount on annual subscription plan along with money back guarantee (for the unexpired portion of subscription tenure ) To get this discount in your subscription use discount code: 18TWM Stocks, Futures and option trading contains substantial risks and is not for every investor. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those which sufficant risk capital should consider trading. Affiliate Disclosure - this ad contains links which are a means for this magazine to earn money.
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MARKET BAROMETER By George Krum
“A rising tide lifts all boats” Probably everybody has heard this saying about the stock market, and has gured out what it means. But the important question is how do we measure and quantify the market’s tide and how useful and necessary is that measure for our trading success? In previous articles we have touched upon the notion of market breadth, and here we will delve deeper into the subject. Market breadth uses market data about advancing and declining issues, up and down volume, new highs and new lows, etc. It is i s the part of technical analysis that deals with the broader market in general and not with individual issues. As such, it provides information about the general general state/health of the market and, as stated by Greg Morris, “it is the footprint of the market and the best measure of the market’s liquidity”. To that we can add that whether the market moves up, down or sideways, it always goes through overbought/oversold cycles. Because of indexing and passive fund management, individual stock moves are strongly correlated with the broader indices. Therefore, being able to determine whether the broader market is overbought overbought or oversold, i.e. whether the tide is about to rise or fall, will help you time your trades. During the last 20 years we have developed a whole range of breadth indicators which add new ways to measure market breadth and liquidity. Some of them have been discussed before, and can be accessed here, but today’s focus will be on the group of three market breadth indicators recently released as an add-on for TradingView under the title CIT Market Barometer. We’ll We ’ll begin by discussing the CIT Market Breadth Indicator (CIT MBI), and to demonstrate demonstrate its value added, we’ll compare it to the McClellan oscillator, one of the more popular breadth indicators today. Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan in 1969, it uses the number of advancing and declining issues. By contrast, CIT MBI uses both advance/decline and up/down volume data for a more comprehensive and objective data analysis. Second, unlike the McClellan Oscillator which does not have precise boundaries, the CIT MBI is range bound from 0 to 100, allowing for easy interpretation. interpretation. And third, CIT MBI avoids avoids the drawbacks drawbacks associated with MACD MACD types of indicators. In addition, CIT MBI can be displayed in dierent ways, even on the chart itself along with an individual stock, index or ETF, which makes it even more versatile, useful and eective. Below we will discuss a few examples using the most current market data (as of January ‘19). First, we’ll start with the cumulative view of CIT MBI, which captures the net dierence between consecutive consecutiv e data points in the chosen time frame. frame. For ease of interpretation interpretation (Chart 1, bottom panel), the indicator changes from green (periods with positive market breadth) to red (periods with negative market breadth).
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Chart 1 The rst thing to notice is how closely the turns of the broader market (represented by SPY) match those of the CIT Market Breadth Indicator (CIT MBI). Second, the CIT MBI shows some important divergences which leave valuable clues about the future direction of the market in general. For example, in April ’17 the CIT MBI already had exceeded its March readings, suggesting that there was strong accumulation below the surface. The market made new highs four months later in July. By comparison, the current readings show that price and CIT MBI are advancing in tandem (chart 2). Note that in the chart below the CIT MBI is displayed along with SPY (the MBI line is not to scale).
Chart 2 A useful way of displaying the CIT MBI is by showing the daily readings below price (Chart 3). This makes it easy to gauge which way the broader market is headed in the immediate future.
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Chart 3 When breadth readings are above .7 or below .3, expect strong, directional moves, when the daily range may reach and exceed R3/S3 pivot lines. When the readings are between .3 and .7 expect choppy, range bound trading, when the daily range usually remains conned within R1/ S1 pivot lines. A third way of displaying CIT MBI is by highlighting the duration of days with positive or negative market breadth and comparing it to the average and maximum readings. For example (Chart 4), during the December ’18 sell-o, the SPX equaled the longest streak of consecutive negative market breadth days (8). By the way, the number is dierent for consecutive up days. As a rule of thumb, in an uptrend the length of consecutive positive market breadth days should exceed the number of consecutive negative market breadth days and vice versa.
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Chart 4 More importantly, the cumulative down thrust number on December 24th by far exceeded the highest negative thrust readings for the last 50 years. Such large negative thrust numbers have been associated with signicant low turning points in the past. The importance of the market turn at the end of December was further highlighted by the large up thrust MBI numbers on January 2nd and 11th, which normally appear at the beginning or in the middle of strong upswings. In summary, CIT MBI is a versatile, multifunctional indicator which can speed your market breadth analysis and give you condence in your market interpretation and forecasting skills. In addition, we have also added a NYSE and NASDAQ New High/ New Low indicator for TradingView (Chart 5), which can also be very useful for market timing and in market trend analysis. For example, both the NYSE and NASDAQ New High/Low indicators peaked a week before the October ’18 market decline started, and then remained immune to the brief bear market rallies in November and December:
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Chart 5 And to complete the list l ist of market breadth indicators, we have also developed the LiquidoMeter (Chart 6, bottom panel) which measures the level of liquidity in the system. This indicator is useful as it has a tendency to peak before signicant market turns, as it did in 2009, 2014 and 2018. In 2007 the LiquidoMeter’s peak coincided with the market top. The troughs tend to be coincidental:
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Chart 6 In summary, market breadth indicators are an important tool in the arsenal of every serious trader, analyst and investor. They provide a clear and unambiguous picture of the state of the broader market, and shouldn’t be ignored when making investing decisions. decisions. The CIT collection of market breadth indicators makes it possible for everybody to measure the pulse of the market in real time.
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Robert Pardo Legendary Trader and Algorithmic Software Pioneer Robert Pardo was a pioneer of algorithmic trading software and trading in the futures industry. He in fact wrote several articles for Traders World magazine in the 70s. He was very instrumental in laying down the foundations of what is known as algorithmic trading software which is how systematic trading is now done today. Bob has done several things in his career. He was a technical analysis software pioneer with the Pardo Corporation. He wrote the book The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies. Strategies. He is the creator of the ground-breaking strategy optimization and validation methodology methodology known as Walk-Forward AnalysisTM. He also was a consultant to Goldman Sachs and Daiwa Securities of America with Pardo Group Limited and trader with Pardo Capital Limited. He recently developed a very sophisticated trading strategy program called Pardo Ranger . It is capable of creating a very large family of uncorrelated unique trading strategies. strategies. This empowers the algorithmic trader to create a deep portfolio of uncorrelated trading strategies for a single market, a sector or a class of markets. Pardo’s research demonstrates that diversication by market and uncorrelated trading strategies is an eective approach to reduce drawdowns and volatility and thereby increase risk-adjusted risk-adjusted trading prots. Ranger begins in its most basic form as a “standard” range breakout strategy of the “Donchian variety.” That is the only place that Ranger can be said to be “standard.” Beyond that, Ranger
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has a very deep selection of dierent “logic,” trend, volatility, volatility, risk, trailing and target order “switches” which makes makes possible Ranger’s Ranger’s
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strategies. Ranger includes the SI Portfolio. That is comprised of six strategies, two each for the Dow Jones, NASDAQ and eMini futures. Additional portfolios for smaller account sizes are also available. All were built via the same process and to the same standard as were used to create the family of Pardo Renaissance strategies.. Additional strategies are currently strategies under development. Ranger Ranger includes a detailed manual, a Tutorial with a number of suggested research paths and TradeStation workspaces
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Pardo Ranger Hello Fellow Traders, We are currently developing trading models for various trading programs with our new product Ranger and noticed something rather fascinating. By the way, we use the same version of o f Ranger that we license to our clients. Our development process starts with the most simple strategy variant and then progresses adding various layers of complexity. At its most basic, Ranger can be configured as a basic range breakout strategy. Consider the following results. We tested a range breakout variant with our proprietary walk-forward analysis (WFA) (WFA) matrix on NASDAQ futures from 1-1-2007 through 12-31-2017. The performance per formance for the Walk-Forward Analyses produc produced ed the following results – the total for all WFAs WFAs was a loss of $385,410 with an average WFA WFA loss of $35,037. Not terribly inspiring to say the least. However,, having confidence in our trading technology and research methods we “slogged on.” However Next step. Consider, then, the same strategy and variable range with the application of one of our proprietary filters. That same WFA WFA matrix produced a profit of $ $629,850 629,850 and an average gain of $57,259. What a difference a filter can make! That particular filter is our proprietary proprietar y Trend Trend Indicator. This indicator can tell us, among other things, when a market is quiet. The results above are the difference between an unfiltered range breakout and a range breakout from a quiet state. Ranger is an EasyLanguage program which runs in TradeStation. Locked it is $2,500 and unlocked $5,000. Trend Indicator is one of three proprietary indicators which are included with the unprotected unprotected version. Ranger is a serious tool for the serious trader. If you would like to put Ranger R anger to work for your own trading email me at
[email protected] [email protected] for further information. The included T Tutorial utorial will have you up and producing trading strategies immediately. Ranger also includes six finished and tradable stock index strategies which can get you started. By the way, they are actually quite good and more than just “starters!” Wishing you a prosperous and fulfilling 2019! Warm Regards, Bob Pardo Affiliate Disclosure - this ad contains links which are a means for this magazine to earn money.
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“I've known Marie Schoeppel for most of the past decade and have great respect for her work. Her new book e Dragon's Debt encompasses the history of financial panics and restructurings from 1284 through the 20th century and the culminating crisis period for China from 2019 to 2022. One could make a great deal of money following her roadmap of the Chinese crisis over the next few years.”
MICHAEL S. JENKINS, Professional Professional Trader and Publisher of the Stock Cycles Forecast newsletter newsletter
The Dragon’s Debt by Marie
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e Dragon's Debt pinpoints pinpoints specific dates when combined astrological influences influences are likely to affect global markets and gives scenarios of how a financial and political crisis will unfold.
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“For those who risk capital in the markets, this book is timely and prescient. I have a high degree of confidence that we will look back at Marie’s analysis and timeline and marvel at the clarity with which she anticipated our future.”
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Algorithmic Trading and Investing
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Key Principles of Trading and Investing By Thomas Barmann of NeverLossTrading
We are 10 years in the trading- and investing education business and with this article, I would like to help you establishing key principles for long-term trading and investing success; preventing the risk of suering through long periods where it is challenging to produce returns from the nancial markets. Let us list some motivations for improving your trading and investing knowledge and skills:
Graphic-1 Motivations for Bettering Your Trading and Investing Skills •
Building a Self-Directed Retirement Account
•
Income Substitution
•
Play Money Trading
•
Wealth Building
•
Short-Term Short-T erm Investments Prior to Spen Spending ding
Regardless of the motivation: Capital preservation and continuous returns from your investment are the keys to success. Considering the stock market slump of December 2018: Did you have a pre-warning system in place, telling you to better get out of long positions and rather stay on the sidelines or better, short the market? Let us take a look on such a system (NeverLossTrading Top-Line Top-Line and and Trend Catching): Catching): Graphic-2: S&P 500 Index Development based on SPY (ETF) Dec. 12 – 24, 2018
Graphic-2 is showing you multiple clearly dened sell signals, indicating a strong short-environment for the index. Each of those sell signals had a dened short-term target (dot on the chart) and a stop (red horizontal bar). The red framed price environment indicates a strong down momentum and the red line of the red frame functions as
a trailing stop.
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SPY, the key ETF, is replicating the S&P 500 Index performance: On a daily chart, you see selling indications and we all know how things panned out. With this system, you trade when the spelled out price thresholds are surpassed in the candle that follows: which was the fact. Let us take another example, considering weekly candles, looking at an ETF for the US-Energy sector: Graphic-3: US-Energy Sector Development based on XLE (ETF) Oct. – Dec., 2018
The chart is showing multiple, clearly dened and conrmed sell signals, starting in the rst week of October 2018. Based on those, your long positions should have gone o; meaning, your energy related IRA or 401(k), ETF, ETF, or other long positions either needed to be taken o or were supposed to be protected through a hedge trade. Do or did you have such protective actions in place? You Yo u might ask: Does such a pre-warning system only work on daily and weekly perspective perspectives? s? The answer is no: Successful Successful behavior of trading and investing is bi-directional and the same, it only diers in the planned period of time you want to hold an investment. Graphic-4: Trading and Investing Style and Time
Trading and Investing Style Day Trading Swing Trading
Longer-Term Longer-T erm Investing Long-Term Long-T erm Investing
Trading and Investing Times
Opening and closing positions the same day Opening and closing positions in one to 10 days Opening and closing positions in weeks or months Opening and closing positions in months or years
As a consequence: Whatever your motivation and holding period for trading or investing is geared towards, you need to establish ve key decisive elements in your trading plan: 1) What is the basis of your decision making? 2) Do you operate with high predictability? 3) What is your risk tolerance per trade? 4) How fast can you make meaningful decisions? 5) Do you have the ability to counteract when things go wrong?
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We are 10-years in the trading and investing education business with focus on one-on-one learning and like to share our ndings; helping you to not getting unprepared in a market where the other side of your trade is ready and prepared to take your money. 1. What is the Basis of Your Decision Making? Recommendation: Follow a system or systematic on which you can repetitively and mechanically base your decisions on. Important-1: Your system or systematic needs to replicate the natural conditions of the markets: The vast majority: 85% of the nancial markets are institutional decision driven. Institutions always try to hide their footsteps; however, by the sheer size, their action is identiable and the
private investor/trader investor/trader can sp spot ot and trade along along with it. Important-2: Your system or systematic needs to leave little to no room for interpretation: Successfull traders and investors follow a mechanical system of iidentifying Successfu dentifying a signal, predicting its reach, appraising the risk to allow and act on it repetitively. In Summary: Successful trading is based on nding and following repetitive supply- and demand patterns:
Price change is a result, not a variable and what we want to demonstrate to you, is how you can nd and participate in directional price changes right when they happen.
Prediction connects the subjective and the objective reality. This means, you can test what we show you here in the real world, where you can compare how well you are currently and can potentially predict trade entries and exits. Let us go through some examples:
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Graphic-5: AAPL based on a 20-Minute Chart on December 27, 2018
December 27 was started with a sell signal: Sell < $154.30. In this case, you operated with a sell-stop order and followed through to target-2. In the afternoon of the same day, a buy signal: Buy > $152.41 allowed for a buy stop order with a pre-dened exit at target-2. As mechanical as possible! Graphic-6: Swing-Trading Swing-Trading Perspective based on a 4-hour Chart for /ES, Day Session Only
December 20th started with a conrmed sell signal: Sell < $2,453.3 In this case, you operated with a sellstop order and you exited at the target dot, which was expected to be reached in 3-bars. Then you see another sell signal that came to target and a buy signal that was fullled. Each, reaching their targets. Mechanical as possible! When you go through the price move indications on our charts, you recognize clear cut buy and sell signals; all containing a systematic stop and positive exit price level (dot), helping you to trade and invest as mechanical as possible, leaving little to no room for interpretation. Key with such a system and systematic is to follow same setups regardless of the time frame you want to base your decisions on, always comparing reward and risk of a trade to decide if a specic situation is worth to risk your money at and or how much risk you can accept. 2. Do You Operate with High Predictability? What is high predictability? We dene high probability trading or high predictability when you operate with ≥ 65% likelihood to predict the future price move of assets on multiple time frames and will mathematically proof to you that you are in need of such a system!
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Commonly available trading systems are usually based on moving averages, MACD, RSI, Ichimoku (Japanese word for average), and others; those will not give you such predictability and we encourage you to test your current system based on mechanical entries, exits, and stops. Pick and analyze 20 trades: If you do not win 13 or more trades, applying mechanical decisions, your system will most likely not give you a long-term ability to produce returns. Shocking but true! Let us repeat an easy mathematical experiment, where we draw marbles from a bag and put them back after each draw, repeating this for 10-rounds based on a 55%- and 65% systematic. Graphic-7: The Experiment
65% Probabi Probabili lity ty Trading Trading Sy Syst steem
55 55% % Probabi Probabili lity ty Trading Trading Sy Syst steem
To calculate the statistical outcome, we use a binominal distribution or Bernoulli experiment and calculate the predictability of six and more winners after 10 draws: Graphic-8: Result of ≥ 6 Winners at 10 Draws
The result shows: A 55% system (which you are most likely using) only produces a random result for six or more winners: 50.4% probability; however, the system with a high predictability (65%-system) produces ≥ 75% likelihood to win six or more times out of 10 draws.
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We hope you now see, why operating with a high probability trading system is a key prerequisite of systematic, long-term trading and investing success; however, most of our today’s readers are not yet up for a change and this is not surprising: By our human nature, if we once commit to a certain behavior or systematic, we like to hold on to it (check on the term: cognitive dissonances): Behavior-change is hard for us and some of our long-term traders joke that it needs somebody to take the other side of our trades; however, we rather want an institution to render the money to you by following better principles. 3. What is Your Risk Tolerance per Trade? We postulated capital preservation as a key factor for success: Imagine a trader who loses 50% of the base capital; thus, 100% return is needed to breakeven again. To prevent drawdowns, we encourage you to quantify a meaningful and maximum risk per trade or investment. Whatever your decision making base for trading or investing is, you are making a prediction for the future price development of assets, which has a probability and might not hold true; however, what you control is the risk you take in each of those trading or investing undertakings. As a consequence, we recommend quantifying the risk of a trade or investment and combining it with the probability of the trade setup to decide on your position size. Let us give you an example that helps to decide the investment size based on the probability of the chosen setup, the reward/risk relation, and the applied trading strategy. Graphic-9: Risk Appraisal Components and Percentage Investments
When you are looking at situation-4, you immediately see: If the setup is not right, do not take the investment or trade: •
Never trade to trade; only risk your money when the odds are in your favor.
•
When probabilities probabiliti es of the setups you nd and reward/risk are in your favor, favor, you can increase your risk appetite; when they are not, you decrease it.
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Fact: You need a system to tell you how much risk tolerance to allow for the price development to reach the desires target. With the NeverLossTrading NeverLossTrading systems, you get this multifold: A) Clearly spelled initial entry and exit signals on the dashboard. B) NLT Double Decker study: The red line of the NLT-Double Decker study functions as a trailing stop-line. You are following the red line until prices reverse. C) The SPU measure: SPU or Speed-Unit is a volatility-based volatility-based measure for the expected price expansion after a conrmed signal is triggered. This measure helps you to dene either a 1-SPU or 2-SPU target price to exit the trade. Based on our data, there is an 85% likelihood that prices halter, retrace, or reverse after a 2-SPU price move; hence, we rather take a positive exit than waiting for the price to revers to the stop-line. Graphic-10: Initial- and Trailing Stop Levels on the NLT Chart
Starting with the rst signal on the chart: Sell $2,637.3, the dashboard was telling us, we have a favorable reward/risk; meaning, for a dollar of risk, we can expect $1.5 of reward. The initial stop was at: $2,672 with a target of 2,584.75. If you trailed the stop by the red NL NLT T Double Decker line, you were able to follow the price move, all the way to $2,408: 230-points. The NLT Double-Decker study frames the price move, giving you an indication for the needed volatility-based volatility-base d price expansion room to consider for not getting stopped when trailing along with a strong price move. If you violate volatility-based price move requirements, requirements, it usually has the following eects: •
You risk too much per trade and your losing trades are higher than your winners.
•
You risk very little per trade and you get constantly stopped even so prices move in your desired direction.
•
You have a very low participation rate or amount of trades by constantly waiting for the perfect setup and you are producing little returns.
Thus, consider or learn how to systematically appraise the needed risk tolerance trade by trade, time-frame by time-frame. We oer multiple systems, helping you to make that prediction… click.. click
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4. How Fast Can You Make Meaningful Decisions? Preparation is the basis for meaningful trading and investing decisions. Preparation sure takes time and we want to help you, cutting down time by establishing a systematic. Trading has a certain amount of complexity and preparation to consider. Let us show you a systematic of how to handle this by establishing a routine in deciding if you want to participate in a trade or not:
• •
Trade Finder: helping you to trade where prices move… check our oering. Chart appraisal to decide for the probability of the trade based on your rules.
•
Quantication Quantic ation of your investment based on the applied strategy. strategy.
•
Journal your trades and strive for continuous improvement.
A) Trade Finder Establish a systematic to focus to invest/trade into assets where prices move, rather than favoring a basket of assets you like: Find a systematic that produces a list of investments that are favored by institutional investments. With our systems, you have multiple ways for nding those assets:
- NLT Alerts (daily alerts for trading assets on multiple time-frames). - NLT Scanners (you run your own scans for assets with price moves). - NLT Watch List Indicators (lter through your lists of preferred assets and see what is on a prestage of a price move). Graphic-11:: Exampl e for the NLT Stoc Graphic-11 Stoc k Alert for Dece December mber 24 24,, 2018 2018
The actual alert contains further details and appraisals.
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B) Chart Validation Graphic-12: BX Trading Example Example from the NLT Stock Alert for December 24, 2018
The BX daily chart had an orange signal, which stands for a reversal potential. On this signal, we use a prior NLT Box Line as target and expect the price to move there in a maximum time of 10 bars. In our example, it took four bars. The signal assumes a slight reversal and oered a favorable buy point at $28.44 with a very favorable reward/risk setup. C) Investment Appraisal
Recommendation: Establish odds-based decision making, which relates strength of the setup with the expected reward and risk of the observed situation. We want to give you a short cut in the following table where you see our way of appraising situations system-based. The example is based on the BX setup you saw on the alert and chart, considering an average investment of $10,000 with a 2% portfolio risk, either through buying the stock or participating in the expected up move through buying call options. Graphic-13 Gra phic-13:: NeverLossT NeverLossTrading rading Posit ion Sizing Sizing Model Model for Stocks and Options
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The table favors the investment in the stock over the investment into options; however, both alternatives are appraised positively. On the stock trade, an investment in 400 shares on a 2:1 reward to risk was calculated. On the option trade, buying six contracts with a reward/risk of 0.9 was calculated (still in spec. but not as positive as the stock trade). D) Journal Your Trades We understand that administrative work is the least favored; however, we still recommend for you to journal your trades by photo-capturing photo-capturing entries and exits, expected and realized returns and a log for documenting your adjustments to trades to see the return on your activities. Graphic-13: Trade Journal Example
Cap t u r e En t r i es an an d Ex Ex i t s
Do c u m en t Re Ret u r n s Ex i t Da te 1 1 /2 7 /2 0 1 8 1 1 /2 8 /2 0 1 8 1 1 /2 8 /2 0 1 8 Tota l
Stoc k UPS JPM MA
Ex i t Da te
Stoc k
Tr ad e A d j u s t m en t Lo Lo g
$ $ $ $
Nov-18 2,5 00 2,3 16 1,1 34 5,9 50
12 /3 /18 BBY
$
Dec -18 1,8 00
12 /4 /18 NKE 12 /4 /18 DI S
$ $ $
2,8 80 1,0 90 5,770
Capturing and re-appraising situations allows you to produce a roadmap, telling you which situations worked in your favor, with the intention to constantly better your trading: repeating what worked and staying out of trade situations that were not successful for you. The trade adjustment log combines the assumed with the realized reality, giving you a calculation scheme for knowing the results when you added to your trade. In the next chapter, we briey explain why you might want to do this. 5. Do You Have the Ability to Counter Act, when Things go wrong?
With the current stock market development, we hope you had the ability to either trade with the newly taken direction, if not, we want to share some keys of hedging and repairing trades. Portfolio Hedging
If you hold a portfolio of stocks either in your IRA, 401(k), or personal account that replicates one of the key indices, Futures contracts oer the ability to hedge your holdings. Futures represent stock and you can equate a value each contract represents:
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Putting a Hedging Case together:
On the basis of a hedge, you can continue holding your assets and counteract the negative price development of the market, balancing the eect or even turning it into a positive one for you. •
Let us assume, you held a portfolio $100,000 of S&P 500 related stocks
•
On December 13th, 2018, your system triggered the need for a hedge (see Chart-2).
•
At this instance you had to sell one /ES contract with a 20 point stop and open target. Considering the CME maintenance margin: margin: $7,700 of capital is needed to do this trade (at some brokers only $500).
Let us now calculate the impact of this hedge on your total account balance: •
Your $100,000 stock holdings lost 8.7% in value or $8,700.
•
A 230 point down-move on the /ES: S&P E-Mini Futures Index gave you a gain of $11,500. With the hedge in place, you were producing a net positive result of $2,800 or 2.8%, even so the market went against you. Sure, such a hedge has to be system-based and we teach how to establish and follow such principles in our mentorships.
Our name derives from us teaching to not take a stop-loss; instead, repair the trade (NeverStopLossTrading was a bit lengthy). Had you done that aside from hedging your portfolio, it would give you the ability to greatly reduce your average expected losses and leverage your returns: Comparing 100 trades at 65% predictability gives the following overview: Graphic-14: Calculations of the Eect of Trade Protections on the Overall Returns
100 Trades at 65%
100 Trades at 65%
65 Dollar Gain
65 Dollar Gain
35 Doll Doll ar Risk
35 x 0.4 = 14 Dollar Risk
30 Dollar Balance Balanc e
51 Dollar Balance Balanc e 70% 70 % Higher Retur Retur n
The calculated results clearly show the positive eect of applying trade repairs. Explaining the action steps to do so goes further than we can explain here; however, we are teaching how you can do this during our mentorships… mentorships…check check out our oering. 6. Summary Successful trading and investing has prerequisites every trader and investor needs to establish, else results are rather random or do not exist. The question is, if you want to and are able to establish all what is shared here on your own, or
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There is sure more to learn than we were able to share here and we like to extend a special oer to you; please mention: TradersWorld Magazine #72 and schedule a personal consulting hour, where you can call the symbols and time frames and we jointly add up the good and bad trades. Teaching one-on-one, spots are surely limited, so do not miss out: Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@
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Interview with Alon Avramson Larry: What Larry: What is your background? (how long have you been trading, how did you get into this forecasting, how did you start what did you initially use to trade with and what are you using now?) Alon: Born Alon: Born in 1965, I have a BsC in computers and electro electronics nics from 1988 and an MBA from 2000. I’v been working in hitech for the last 30 years in dening, developing and marketing software applications applications and I still do. I am also an Astrology fan. I Started to be interested in astrology at the early years of my 20s and still learning since. I am making astrology charts and counseling to friends. After the 2008 stock market crash, I become interested in the linkage between the stock market and astrology. I soon realized that human feelings are important part of the decisions on buying and selling stocks. I know astrology is a good way to predict changes of feelings in human. From that moment, the direction was clear, I had to nd the link between astrology and the stock markets. I started to check every method of astrology I knew till then. Those methods include traditional astrology astrology rules typically used for for human such as creating an an astrology natal chart for a stock based on the IPO day and hour. Unfortunately I could not nd the correlation with these methods. I then ran onto a special research platform developed by Sergey Tarasov called Timing-Solution Timing-Solutio n (hp://www.mingsoluon.com/) . This platform is rich in research options and was just the frame frame I was looking for. for. I invested a lot of research research and in the process process I developed developed a new method of nancial astrology which does not rely on traditional astrology rules but instead analyze each and every astrology composition on each day and the aect this composition has on the daily price bar. The analysis is done on a long price history and uses an advanced analytic engine call Neural-Networks, which is a member method in the Articial-Intelligence arsenal. I found the correlation I was looking for and developed new prediction models. I am using these models to trade. I began to trade a few years ago, and now I am mostly trading based on forecast models. This is a Neural-Network nancial astrology. I then decided to share my results with the public, oering my services of stock market forecasts through my website: hps://www.cycles-trader.com/ Larry: Can Larry: Can you explain your 5-layer model? Alon: The Alon: The 5-Layer model is one of the metods I developed. It consists of 5 dierent models:
The 5-Layer model provides price directions probabilities in 5 dierent resolutions:
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Yearly model,
(Dark Blue),
corresponds to a ~250 MA
Quarterly model, (Light Blue), corresponds to a ~100 MA Monthly model,
(Green),
Weekly model,
(Orange),
Daily model,
(Velvet),
corresponds to a ~50 MA corresponds corresponds to a ~20 MA corresponds to a ~10 MA
Using the models above, an investor would look into the Yearly model to see the general stock trend and will use one of the other models to decide on the actual timing for entry and exit. Here is an example of using 2 layers out of the 5-Layer model on German DAX.
The left blue side is the price history provided to the Neural-Network Model, The right pink side is the resulting projection projection lines, the trend trend prediction. The b black lack line indicates the real real price. In this example I used 2 out of the 5-Layer model. the Yearly model (dark blue) and the Weekly model (orange). (orange). An investor looking to invest in DAX at January 2018, with the projection lines from the 5-Layer model, will look for a short either on January 2018 or on June 2018. For the exact timing to enter the market or to exit the market, the investor will use the Weekly model and the points of change of directions (marked in red). Here is another example on GOLD forecast for the whole year 2018. Here I used all the 5 layers to show the possibilities of the forecast model. Black line is the actual price. Colored lines are parts of the 5-Layer model.
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Yearly model,
(Dark Blue),
Main trend line
Quarterly model, (Light Blue), Large swings swings around around the the yearly Monthly model,
(Green),
Medium swings around the yearly
Weekly model,
(Orange),
Small swings around the yearly
Daily model,
(Velvet),
Daily changes around the yearly
In addition to the 5-Layer model I am now oering forecast models for short periods of 2-6 weeks, based on 60-minutes bars. These models are targeted to the swing traders. Here is an example for EURUSD 60 minutes forecast for 6 weeks, from Dec 1 2-18. Here I used an additional model, customized for 60 minutes bars. The blue line is the forecast model, the red marks indicate the change of direction. This model can be of great assistance to the swing trader looking to see when the next change of trend is expected, as an additional decision supporting tool in his arsenal.
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Additional examples can be found on the website: hps://www.cycles-trader.com/examples The models can be used with currencies, stocks, commodities, indices. Larry: What Larry: What program do you use to do your forecasting with? Alon: I Alon: I am using my forecast models with the TimingSolution platform platform..
Larry: What Larry: What is the basis for using astrology? Alon: The Alon: The stock market works in non-linear cycles. Astrology also works in non-linear cycles. Astrology is known to be a dynamic sensor of feelings when planets are transiting around the natal chart and activating pressure points. On the other hand, buy/sell decisions are based on feelings such as greed, fear, and hope. In Cycles-Trader we analyze the eect of past astrology events on thousands of historic price bars and understand how they can aect the price in the future. Larry: Do Larry: Do you use any computer oscillators and do you believe in them? Alon: If Alon: If the term “computer “computer oscillators” refers to technical indicators such as RSI then the answer is yes. I do use them often to track the market and use them in my own trading technics on top of the 5-Layer model. If the term “computer “computer oscillators” refers to “spectrum analyzer” implemented in software in order to analyze and nd cycles in a price instrument then the answer is also yes. TimingSolution platform also also has a built in option to run s spectrum pectrum analysis analysis on price instruments. instruments. This is a powerful tool. However, the cycles in the stock market are not stable or linear, they come and go. So even if we nd a strong cycle active today using the spectrum analysis, it may lose strength or even disappear sooner or later. Larry: Do Larry: Do you use any Gann, Elliott Wave etc? Alon: I Alon: I am not using Gann or Elliot Wave in my analysis today only because I do not have enough experience with them. In addition, nor me or www.cycles-trader.com provide any trading advice.
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MANAGING RISK LIKE A PROFESSIONAL TRADER TO AVOID “BLOWING UP” YOUR TRADING ACCOUNT By Dr. Barry Burns, Owner of Top Dog Trading Copyright 2019 Top Dog Trading There are many risk management techniques in trading. Some use complicated mathematical models. Others use a combination of art and science. There’s There’ s no one answer to the question of how to manage your risk, other than to use principles that allow you to CONSISTENTLY keep your losses small and catch big winners when they occur. Amateurs are always looking for successful trades. Their expectation is that each trade they place is going to be a big winner. If you ask them this, they of course say “no.” But when you watch their behavior, the answer is clearly “yes.” How does this manifest itself? When a trader takes multiple trades over time, but none of their trades turn into large winners, they get tired, get distracted and take a break, skip some trades, and miss the big winner. Beyond simple fatigue, this happens in part because of the trader’s belief that most of their trades should be large winners if the trading method is valid. Another phenomena that occurs is that after so many small wins, small losses and break even trades, the trader get enamored enamored with a small or medium size prot, so locks that in before the market has nished its move. Then the market goes into a mega-trend without him/her. The truth is that most trades taken by successful traders are small wins and small losses. A good day trader may nd that 1-3 of their trades for an entire week account for 80% of their prots for that week. That means 2-4 days with no signicant winning trades. There’s simply no way to know when the market is going to have a major follow-though, so you have to take every setup in your methodology without getting tired. Knowing this before you begin gives you the proper mindset to be consistent, not miss trades, and not be concerned when most trades don’t follow through very much. It also encourages you to look for those opportunities to hang on to winners when they do occur, because you know that’s where your entire weekly income will be found.
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Most traders are aware of the need to trade with a good risk/reward ratio. However the truth is there’s no way to assure that on any one trade. Your risk/reward ratio is established over a history of trading. You can’t control when or whether the market makes a big move, so you must focus on keeping your risk consistently small.
Again, many traders don’t keep their original risk consistent. This is absolutely crucial, otherwise some losses will be large and others will be small when your protective stop is triggered. This is a recipe for disaster. When I refer to your protective stops being consistent, there are often 2 misunderstan misunderstandings dings that arise: 1. You’re supposed to trade the same number of shares/contracts every time. 2. You’re supposed to trade the same amount of money each time. Let’s look at #1 rst: You’re supposed to trade the same number of shares/contracts every time. If you trade 100 shares on every stock, then on a $10 stock you’re investing (putting at risk) $1,000, and on a $100 stock you’re putting at risk $10,000. These are not equal risks. Therefore you’re giving one trade much more weight in your portfolio than the other. This is terrible risk management. 75% of your trades could be winners, but if all your winners are with $10 stocks and all your losers are with $100 stocks, you’re still likely to lose money. Now let’s look at #2: You’re supposed to trade the same amount of money each time. You may think to solve this problem you’ll simply invest the same amount of money in each stock. So if you decide you’re going to invest $1,000 in each stock, you would buy 100 shares of a $10 stock, but you would buy 10 shares of a $100 stock. This certainly is a reasonable approach in that you’re risking the same amount of money on every trade. But there is one shortcoming to that approach. It assumes that your risk is the ENTIRE position. It’s true that when you put that money out there, the entire position IS indeed at risk. No question about that. However, what is the probability that your stock will go all the way down to ZERO overnight?
If you’re trading stocks that have decent volume and price (avoiding penny stocks and lightly traded stocks), then that risk is minimal (though we acknowledge that it’s there). Here’s the problem:
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Your actual risk on 99% of your trades should be only the distance between your entry and your protective stop. But that distance will often vary by as much as 50%. That means your risk on the vast majority of your trades will vary by as much as 50%. This is the more typical scenario. Therefore the approach that will level the risk on all your trades is to take the amount you’re willing to risk on a trade and divide that by the distance from your entry to your protective stop. EXAMPLE: You’re willing to risk $300 on a trade. If the distance from your entry to your protective stop is $1, then you could buy 300 shares. If the distance from your entry to your protective stop is 50 cents, then you could buy 600 shares. It also helps to look at your “budget” and set a maximum amount you will risk if the stock does go to zero. This means keeping the stocks you buy in a certain price range and not risking more than a set percentage of your total trading account (usually 2% or less) in total investment on any given trade. This helps to buer you from the occasional stock that gaps through your stop or goes out of business. And, of course, solid diversication principles and hedging with options are options are also critically important. If you’re not already familiar with these principles, I encourage you to get a book on risk management manageme nt since the topic is beyond the scope of this article.
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Another key aspect of managing risk is what I call “adjusting your cost position” in the trade as soon as possible. In addition to keeping your protective stops, this is a way of keeping all of your losses small. I’ll demonstrate this with an example of day trading the e-mini, but it also applies to stocks, Forex, and commodities, as well as swing trading and investing.
In the example below we’re going SHORT below the low of the setup bar (highlighted) and putting our stop above the setup bar. The exact reason for entering the trade isn’t important, we’re just using this to illustrate money management. We’re risking 6 ticks and trading 4 contracts, so our total risk in the trade would be $300 if the trade completely fails and we get stopped out. We could use the last swing low as our rst target. That would be 1422.00 and would give us more than a 1:1 risk/reward on the rst exit, which would be great … if we reached it.
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The trade didn’t work, so we lose $300. Don’t you hate when that happens? If we simply used a strict 1:1 risk/reward for our rst exit, that wouldn’t have worked either since price just tickled 1422.75, which was 1.5 points from our entry and exactly a 1:1 risk/ reward, but the odds of getting lled were small. We risked risked 6 ticks, but instead of insisting on a 1:1 risk/reward risk/reward,, what if we took o ½ of our position earlier, at only a 4 tick gain? Now let’s see how that would change things. First, the closer you make your rst target and the quicker you take prots, the greater your odds that you’ll hit your rst target. The risk/reward isn’t as good, but the win/loss on the rst exit will be much greater. Getting a 1:1 risk/reward is much harder than most people realize until they try getting it. The odds are generally lower than 50/50! So if we put our rst target at just 4 ticks, then we have a bad risk/reward, but a much better win/loss. Remember, this is only the target for part of our position … say the rst 2 contracts.
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Now let’s look at the math on the last trade: We reached our rst puny 4 tick target, so we made $50 on 2 contracts, which is $100. We lost 6 ticks on our last 2 contracts, so we lost $75 on 2 contracts, which is $150. So our total loss is now $50 instead of $300! The dierence in your losses is HUGE! Here’s the rub: How many $300 losses can you take in a day before you have to quit trading? What does it do to you psychologically to take one or two $300 losses, and how does that compare to your mental state when you take $50 losses? The FIRST RULE OF TRADING is “keep your losses small.” And this is one way to do it. The primary objection to this approach is: This reduces your risk/reward ratio because you’re removing fully ½ of your contracts with such a puny prot. That is absolutely true. If you have a solid trading methodology AND you have the psychological psychological makeup to take many more losses than wins, BUT you also have the psychological makeup to hold on to your winners for the big payo, then go for it! But most people can’t handle the large draw down periods of such an approach, so whether it “works” or or not isn’t helpful, helpful, because most traders traders can’t “work” “work” it. However you need to understand the point of this technique. Those rst 2 contracts are there for the exclusive purpose of reducing the size of your losses. They are purely defensive. Therefore even taking a 1 or 2 tick prot on them will help reduce your loss. They are only used to “adjust your cost position” in the trade. They are there to acknowledge that many trades do not succeed, so we simply want to minimize the damage of the losing trades. They are your defensive players whose job it is to simply hold the other team from scoring too many points against you until your oense can come back on the eld and score some points for your team. And it works for one very good reason: The probability of the market moving 2-4 ticks in your direction are much higher than it moving 4-8 ticks in your direction.
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Then you still have 2 contracts left in case the trade actually works! You have a 3rd contract
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winners. This money management trick is a combination of scalping and position trading to help you get the best of both worlds. Mature and successful traders tend to be impatient with their trades at the beginning because they know from experience that many of them are not going to work out. So they tend to emphasize defense more than oense. Amateurs, on the other hand, tend to be overly optimistic about trading in general, and so tend
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Read articles explaining classical trading
Dr. Barry Burns is the owner of hps://www.
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He can be contacted directly at Barry@ TopDogTrading.com
techniques, such as W.D. Gann, Elliott Wave,
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Rise and Fall of a Crypto Star: How Cycles Predicted the Crash of Nvidia by Lars von Thienen, www.whentotrade.com
Cycles are important not only in physics, but also in behavioural economics. The impact of psychological, psycholog ical, social, cognitive and emotional factors on the economic decisions of individuals and institutions does not lead to market prices moving abruptly but in cyclical waves. Understanding Understandin g behavioural cycles is critical to achieving returns in the current market environment. According to many behavioural economics studies, mood can strongly inuence individual behaviour and decision making. Mood predisposes people for certain decision-making processes, processe s, and the mood in the crowd can lead to trends occurring. The ability to nd and quantify the underlying mood cycles can enable the informed trader to predict the likelihood of a trading direction. Normally the mood in the form of dynamic cycles in markets driven by a certain primary level of greed and fear increases and decreases positively and negatively. A current market driven mainly by fear and greed is the crypto currency market. So far, most crypto assets have no real basis for fundamental analysis. In a market like crypto, where emotions drive price movements, cycles can often be identied and used to analyze market movements. Sentiment cycles can even play a more important role in market analysis if both more traditional assets (e.g. stocks) and novel assets (e.g. crypto currencies currencies)) have signicant correlations. The ability to nd these types of situations, referred to as ‘cycles within cycles’, can lead to highly protable trading set-ups. This type of setup has been easy to see over the past 24 months. The emotional behavior of crypto currency values was obvious with a lot of publicity. The rise of the new crypto-assets drove demand for the underlying technologies. Nvidia’s GPUs were in high demand in crypto-currency mining and Nvidia was described as the “hottest stock” and top performer in the entire S&P 500 due to its high correlation to crypto mining. Therefore, it makes more sense not only to perform technical analyses of Nvidia’s market prices, but also to analyze the underlying dominant cycles and the correlation of Nvidia’s to crypto market cycles. In this report, we emphasize the importance of identifying cycles in emotional markets to identify turning points in correlated traditional nancial assets. In this case we analyze the driving cycles of Nvidia and correlate them with the crypto-cycles. crypto-cycles. Recognizing cycles within cycles is susceptible to trading set-ups with high protability. The following case study illustrates
the importance of cycle analysis and predictive power of Dynamic Cycle Explorer (DCE). The
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Dynamic Cycle Explorer algorithm has been made available in a public available book “Decoding The Hidden Market Rhythm”. Let’s start with the market situation in July 2018. Nvidia’s share price moved sideways over the course of the year. This movement took place in line with the perceived dominant downward cycle since February with a cycle length of 147 days. (Chart 1) In strong uptrends, downward dominant cycles cause the larger trend to pause and prices to stagnate rather than fall. In this case, we could see that Nvidia was moving sideways until June 2018. This shows that the dominant cycle is in place and that the uptrend since February has been suspended for a moment as expected. The dominant cycle is now turning upwards in June according to the recognized cycle cycle and a further revival of the Nvidia stock price can be expected until midSeptember. The next downward cycle is expected to begin at the end of September.
Figure 1: Nvidia price chart and dominant cycle in July 2018 An isolated, individually identied cycle should never be the sole basis for trading decisions. Since we are condent that there is a strong correlation between Nvidia and the crypto markets in this case, we also need to review the current dominant cycles in the crypto market. For this purpose we use the Bitcoin/USD rate as proxy for the underlying crypto cycle. The following chart 2 shows the Bitcoin price and the dominant cycle with a length of 157 days detected in July 2018 via the ‘Dynamic Cycle Explorer’ algorithm.
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Figure 2: Bitcoin/USD price chart and dominant cycle in July 2018 This analysis also forecasts the next expected cycle high for early October. Conclusion: July: In July 2018, we had a cycle-in-cycle lock-in lock-in situation between two iindependen ndependentt markets: - the crypto markets with a dominant cycle duration of 157 days point to the next cycle high in early October, and - the Nvidia share price with a dominant cycle duration of 148 days is forecasting a price high around the mid-September date. This suggests that we can expect a rising Nvida price by the end of September followed by a subsequent change in trend. It should be noted that this analysis, which is derived based on cycles, cannot be interpreted statically and must therefore be checked daily for changing inuences. The next chart shows the development of the Nvidia share price at the beginning of October, the forecasted next important turning point.
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Figure 3: Nvidia’s share price rose as expected and reached the forecasted cycle high for late September. In the forecast period between July and October, Nvidia prices rose by +15% from USD 244 to USD 279 within 4 months, according to our dominant cycle analysis. Since the expected turning point was reached in October according to the forecast time and the daily review of the cycles still conrms the forecast, we must be on our guard against an imminent dominant cycle top. It needs to be examined whether the same dominant cycle is still active on the crypto markets. This is shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4: Dominant cycle in Bitcoin mid-October - conrmation of forecasted cycle Top from July
The crypto cycle analysis conrms the dominant cycles. A turnaround in Nvidia stock prices is
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therefore expected for October 2018, as the underlying dominant cycle of both the stock and the crypto market is now expected to turn. Conclusion October: Two possible scenarios can be derived from this situation: - The strong base uptrend will be stopped again when the next downward dominant cycles occur in October. Which is consistent with a sideways movement of the share. - The uptrend is stopped and transformed into a stronger downtrend of Nvidia as we see a cyclein-cycle situation in two independent markets. Correlating cycles within independent markets with the same forecast often do more than just “stopping” an existing trend. trend. Either way way,, a trader would now close existing long positions to be on the safe side. If he trades more aggressively, additionally open a short position with low risk. With an exit setting at the current level of around USD 279 according to the cycle peak observed for the Nvidia share at the beginning of October (chart 3). The next chart shows the price development according to this forecast of the expected cycle high in October.
Figure 5: As expected, the Nvidia price is falling strongly, in line with the perceived downward
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dominant cycles This is the perfect result of synchronous cycles in independent markets. The share price lost 50% after our expected dominant cycles peaked. peaked. This is the result of a cycle analysis in an emotionally driven market (crypto) with highly correlated traditional assets (stocks). The cycle detections used and shown in this example were detected fully automatically and without manual settings by a programmed cycle indicator. Our publicly published ‘Dynamic Cycle Explorer’ algorithm discovered the highlighted dominant cycles and their derived predictions about the timing of the coming highs and lows. The Dynamic Cycle Explorer works on the assumption that cycles are not static over time. Dominant cycles morph over time because of the inherent nature of the parameters of length and phase. Typically, one dominant cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters compared to other cycles. Every time a new bar appears on the chart, the Dynamic Cycle Explorer reassesses the state of the current dominant cycle in terms of length, strength, and phasing. Subsequently, it updates this cycle by plotting it onto future projections. As we move forward in time, every bar signies an update of the expected turning point by a reassessment of the current state of the dominant cycle length and phase. This dynamic forecast based on the actual state of the dominant cycle provides information about the time and direction of the next turning point. We obtain real-time information about when to expect the next major turning point in the market as we continuously reassess the parameters of the dominant carrier wave. This information is updated every time a new bar appears. This technique was used in this market report. You can nd more information in the publicly available WhenToT WhenToTrade rade website or in our book providing the DCE algorithm available at Amazon. Lars von Thienen www.whentotrade.com
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Th e Tr ans The ansne neptu ptuni nian an Par ado adox x and Pr ecision Ti Timi ming ng In I n Th Thee M ar ke kets ts by Tim Bost While planetary dynamics can be used to time market positions protably in swing trading situations, and while they can also be used predictively to inform longer-term investment investment strategies, they can do much more than that. If we really want to get the greatest advantage from applying astrology to the markets, we shouldn’t overlook the eectiveness of planetary cycles in short-term or intraday trading as well. As we examine possible applications of planetary cycles in the markets, one of our main considerations consider ations is to match the specic planetary energies we are examining to the appropriate corresponding correspon ding time frames for trading. Dierent planets have dierent speeds and dierent orbital periods, giving us clues about the best corresponding trading strategies and time frames. If we are interested in longer-term investment potential, then it makes sense to consider outer planet harmonics, since the outer planets move much more slowly as seen from the Earth’s perspective.. But if we’re looking at trading opportunities with a more immediate time frame, we perspective can expect inner-planet dynamics to describe the market potential more accurately. With our current approach to astro-trading, however, we have discovered that we can also include the so-called transneptunian factors in our calculations, even though they move extremely slowly. The transneptunian factors were rst postulated by the German astrologer Alfred Witte (1878 – 1941) in the early years of the 20th century, based on his observations of combat phenomena in the midst of his personal exposure to trench warfare during World War I. Witte paid attention to the transiting astrological congur congurations ations that were dominant during particular stages of the ongoing combat. In many cases, there were clear correlations with major events in the war and classical congurations from the astrological tradition. But Witte also observed battleeld events with timing that did not seem to coincide with known astrological factors. As he continued his observations, he concluded that there must in i n fact be additional planetary inuences as causative forces for the events he was witnessing in the trenches. Those unknown physical planets had not yet been observed by astronomers, of course, but even so Witte, who had extraordinary extraordinary mathematical and engineering talents, calculated precise orbits for these hypothetical bodies and added them to his astrological consideration considerations s and forecasting methodology. The result was a mature and evolving understanding of harmonic and symmetrical
planetary alignments, along with a greater level of predictive precision in anticipating upcoming
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events. For many decades following Alfred Witte’s pioneering but somewhat eccentric astrological work, his notion of hypothetical planets was greeted with considerable considerable skepticism by the international astrological community. After all, there were no telescopic observations of any additional solar system objects that corresponded with Witte’s hypothetical bodies, so the idea of including these unknown factors in astrological calculations seemed questionable at best. And since Witte had postulated orbits for his objects that went far beyond the bounds of Pluto’s 248-year cycle around the Sun, it seemed quite unlikely that his presumed planets would ever actually be observed. All that skepticism began to shift with the advent of high-powered deep-space telescopes telescopes sent into the outer reaches of the solar system. The breakthrough came with the discovery in 1992 of the Kuiper Belt, a cloud of innumerable objects surrounding the solar system far outside the orbit of Pluto. To date more than 10,000 individual Kuiper Belt objects have been cataloged, and it seems likely that there are well over 100,000 objects at least 1 km in diameter in that zone outside our solar system. As astronomers continued to study Kuiper Belt objects, it soon became apparent that this populous zone of minor orbiting objects coincided quite nicely with the proposed orbital range that Alfred Witte had calculated for his transneptunian factors many decades earlier. While we have yet to determine precise correspondences between all of Witte’s transneptunian factors and specic Kuiper Belt objects, it is nevertheless clear that there is indeed some observable physical basis for Witte’s hypothetical hypothetical planets. But how do the eight transneptunian factors (Cupido, Hades, Zeus, Kronos, Apollon, Admetos, Vulcanus and Poseidon) postulated by Witte and his students impact our ability to forecast market actions, and what’s the best way for us to consider them in our approach to trading? In answering those questions we face some interesting challenges. After all, the transneptunian transneptunian factors have orbital periods measuring from 262 years to 740 years, so it seems logical that, like the outer planets of our solar system, they should only be studied in relation to long-term market and economic cycles. To a certain extent, that has proven to be a valuable premise. For example, in the 1930s there was a long lasting conjunction of the transneptunian factors Hades and Admetos. As the name implies, Hades is associated with high levels of degradation and decay, while Admetos is connected with fundamental limits and severe inhibitions, as well as with raw materials and primal substances. The conjunction of these two transneptunian factors coincided with the time of the Great Depression on a global scale, and the symbolic connotations of this particular combination – mixing deprivation with degradation – certainly matches the grim social and
economic circumstances during that era.
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But in our more recent research, we have found that long-cycle transneptunian factors can paradoxically paradoxic ally also function quite well as signicant guideposts for short-term trading decisions. decisions. In fact, they can even assist us in determining high-probability high-probability inection points in the markets on an intraday basis. In doing so, they help provide what is essentially a static eld against which faster-moving transiting dynamics can be contrasted to give us useful information about market timing.
The key to using this approach is to begin with a base horoscope – the inception chart for an exchange or a market index, or the First-Trade horoscope for an individual stock whose shares are publicly traded. We use the degree positions of key planets in that horoscope as xed indicators, and then apply rapidly-moving dynamics in the current trading time frame to determine the highest-probability inection points in the market environment. By setting our current horoscope for the location of the trading exchange we are using, and then by tracking the ongoing positions of the current Midheaven on that chart throughout the hours of a trading day, we can derive a sequence of events in which the First-Trade planets are activated in the eighth harmonic by the transiting Midheaven. (The eighth-harmonic activations activations are angles of arc opening between positions or planets of 0°, 45°, 90°, 135°, or 180°.) [Figure 1 – PCG First-Trade Horoscope] Horoscope]
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As an example, we can use the horoscope for PG&E Corporation, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol PCG. Historical records show that PCG rst began trading on June 1, 1972; the trading day then began at 10:00 a.m., so we calculate our chart for that moment in time at the opening bell. While it can be useful and informative to do an in-depth examination and analysis of this horoscope diagram, we are primarily interested in the key planets and transneptunian factors that have the greatest probability of being associated with turning points in the trading action: the planets Saturn, Neptune, and Pluto and the transneptunians Hades and Admetos, which tend to activate trading tops and bring prices lower; the planets Venus Venus and Jupiter and the transneptunians Cupido, Kronos, and Apollon, which can identify trading bottoms and launch higher price action; and the planets Mars and Uranus plus the transneptunians Zeus and Vulcanus, which provide an acceleration or intensication of market activity within the context of prevailing trends. In each case, we are more concerned with identifying potential inection points than with pre-determining the direction of an intraday trend. Note that in this list, we have added traditional inner planets like Venus and Mars, as well as outer planets like Uranus and Neptune. But we have also included some of the slow-moving transneptunian factors, not because of their long-duration orbits, but because they oer us remarkably powerful resonant points in the chart which can respond to speedier transiting dynamics in ways that help us understand the potential for future market movements. If we leave out the transneptunian factors, we miss out on an important part of the overall picture. Based on those parameters, we can calculate the impact of the transiting Midheaven throughout the course of a single trading day – in this case, Friday, January 18, 2019. We have chosen the Midheaven as a transiting factor because of its extreme speed; it moves through one degree of arc opening in just one minute of clock time throughout the trading day. Eighth-Harmonic Eighth-Harm onic Alignments: Transiting Midheaven to Key First-Trade Points PG&E Corporation (NYSE – PCG) – 10:00 a.m. EDT, June 1, 1972 Transiting Triggers During Market Hours in EST, January 18, 2019 A - Jan 18 2019
10:02 Midheaven 90° First-Trade First-Trade Pluto
B - Jan 18 2019
10:16 Midheaven 90° First-Trade First-Trade Apollon
C - Jan 18 2019
10:23 Midheaven 180° First-Trade First-Trade Venus
D - Jan 18 2019
10:26 Midheaven 180° First-Trade First-Trade Vulcanus
E - Jan 18 2019
10:31 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Hades
F - Jan 18 2019
10:32 Midheaven 0° First-Trade First-Trade Jupiter
G - Jan 18 2019
11:00 Midheaven 180° First-Trade First-Trade Mars
H - Jan 18 2019
11:07 Midheaven 90° First-Trade First-Trade Uranus
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I - Jan 18 2019
11:25 Midheaven 45° First-Trade First-Trade Neptune
J - Jan 18 2019
11:47 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Kronos
J - Jan 18 2019
11:47 Midheaven 90° First-Trade First-Trade Cupido
K - Jan 18 2019
11:53 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Saturn
L - Jan 18 2019
11:58 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Zeus
M - Jan 18 2019
12:30 Midheaven 90° First-Trade First-Trade Admetos
N - Jan 18 2019
13:11 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Pluto
O - Jan 18 2019
13:24 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Apollon
P - Jan 18 2019
13:30 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Venus
Q - Jan 18 2019
13:34 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Vulcanus
R - Jan 18 2019
13:38 Midheaven 90° First-Trade First-Trade Hades
R - Jan 18 2019
13:38 Midheaven 45° First-Trade First-Trade Jupiter
S - Jan 18 2019
14:04 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Mars
T - Jan 18 2019
14:10 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Uranus
U - Jan 18 2019
14:26 Midheaven 90° First-Trade First-Trade Neptune
V - Jan 18 2019
14:45 Midheaven 90° First-Trade First-Trade Kronos
V - Jan 18 2019
14:45 Midheaven 135° First-Trade First-Trade Cupido
W - Jan 18 2019 14:50 Midheaven 90° First-Trade First-Trade Saturn X - Jan 18 2019
14:55 Midheaven 180° First-Trade First-Trade Zeus
Y - Jan 18 2019
15:24 Midheaven 45° First-Trade First-Trade Admetos
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[ F i g u r e 2 – P C G T r a d i n g o n J a n u a r y 1 8 , 2 0 1 9 ] Note that in this particular case there are 28 Midheaven activation activations s during the course of the trading day. Exactly half of them involve alignments with transneptunian factors. On the intraday chart for PCG above, we’ve agged the points at which these alignments occurred. occurred. (Note that at 11:47, 13:38 and 14:45 we’ve assigned a single letter code to two dierent events, events, since they took place at the same time.) While not all of these Midheaven triggers corresponded corresponded with major shifts in the price trend, the overall picture gives us a detailed sense of the prevailing market action throughout the trading day.
[ F i g u r e 3 – A A P L o n J a n u a r y 1 8 , 2 0 1 9 ]
As another example, we can take a look at the trading chart for Apple (NASDAQ – AAPL) for the same trading day, January 18, 2019. In this case we’ve added a trend line to the chart, showing the upward trend in the stock’s price action throughout most of the trading day. But at 14:08 that afternoon, when the transiting Midheaven formed a 90-degree square to the position of First-Trade Hades (indicating lower prices ahead), the stock broke through support and then traded lower for the remainder of the market session. This technique can also be applied to market indices as well as to individual equity trades. When it is used to examine the trading action in an index, the transneptunian factors are often
associated with key intraday trend reversals.
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[ F i g u r e 4 – S & P o n J a n u a r y 1 8 , 2 0 1 9 ]
For example, the chart for the S&P 500 Index on January 18, 2019 shows a trading day characterized by fairly range-bound market action throughout most of the afternoon. In this case, we have applied the activating force of the transiting Midheaven to the key planetary and transneptunian points in the original horoscope for the New York Stock Exchange, from May 17, 1792. Even after two centuries, the positions of the transneptunian factors in that horoscope chart are still active. On the trading day that we examined, the transiting Midheave Midheaven n was in a precise conjunction with the NYSE inception Kronos when the S&P Index hit its intraday high at 12:27 p.m. EST.
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[Figure 5 – NASDAQ on January 18, 2019]
As a nal example, we’ve taken a look at the intraday trading action for the NASDAQ Composite Index on the same trading day that we have used in our previous examples, January 18, 2019. Once again we’ve applied the action of the transiting Midheaven to our list of key planets and transneptunian factors in the NASDAQ horoscope. There were four key activations that occurred during that trading day: a square to Pluto at 10:02; an opposition to Vulcanus Vulcanus at 10:22; a square to Hades at 13:27; and a square to Kronos at 14:38. In each case, these timings proved to be signicant in the course of that day’s trading action. While this technique of applying the transiting Midheaven Midheaven to key horoscope points is certainly not infallible as a forecasting tool, it nevertheless oers us some important insights that can prove useful as we plan for short-term trading strategies. And while it may seem paradoxical to include the slow-moving transneptunian factors in our calculations, our experience has shown just how vital they can be in giving us a more complete picture of the astrological trading poten potential tial hidden in any given day in the markets.
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Review of Rob Homan’s Pro Trader Pack Elite for MetaStock. Review by Larry Jacobs
The software of Rob Homan’s Pro Trader Pack Elite includes: 1) Homan Core Trigger 2) Homan Fast Trigger 3) Homan MSR Daily 4) Homan MSR Intraday 5) Homan Oscillators
The Explorations also include 1) Homan Inventory Retracement Signals Signals 2) Homan Momentum Signals Templates included 1) Homan Full Full 2) Homan One Chart
Homan Core Trigger It will display in four dierent colors; blue, magenta, red, and green. Here are the indicator states: • Blue: Momentum is bullish and increasing in bullishness • Magenta: Momentum is bullish and decreasing in bullishness • Red: Momentum is bearish and increasing in bearishness • Green: Momentum is bearish and decreasing in bearishness Ideally, for long trades you want the Homan Fast Trigger to be Blue, the Homan Core Trigger to be Blue, and the Momentum ribbon to be Blue. Conversely, with short trades you would like the same indicators to be Red.
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Homan Fast Trigger Combines Rob’s tools to measure market momentum. The indicator will display in four dierent colors, blue, magenta, red, and green. Here are the indicator states: • Blue: Momentum is bullish and increasing in bullishness • Magenta: Momentum is bullish and decreasing in bullishness • Red: Momentum is bearish and increasing in bearishness • Green: Momentum is bearish and decreasing in bearishness
Homan MSR There are two MSR indicators: • Homan MSR Daily • Homan MSR Intraday The Homan MSR is a combination of moving averages. They are used for Trend Identication and as entries in Robs Trading setups.
Homan Oscillators The Homan Oscillators are designed to measure OverBought/OverSold readings in the security. They should be combined with the Homan MSR, Momentum, Fast and Core Trigger. A reading above 80 during a downtrend indicates a resumption of the downtrend is likely. Alternatively a reading below 20 during an uptrend indicates a likely resumption of the uptrend.
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Homan Full Template The full template opens 5 charts. From left to right they are Daily, hourly, 15 minute, 5 minute, and 2 minute. Each chart is formatted identically with the following elements: • Homan MSR • Prices in candlestick format • Homan Pro Trader Pack Elite expert adviser • Homan Fast Trigger • Homan Core Trigger • Homan Oscillators
It is good to see all these charts when you are analyzing the market. You should view at least 20 or more candles in each chart.
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Homan One Chart This is the same as the daily chart from the Homan Full template. This is for those traders who want to focus on just one chart at a time.
Using Expert Advisors You can attach Experts to your charts. The following explorations are included in Rob Homan’s Pro Trader Pack Elite. • Homan Inventory Retracement Signals • Homan Momentum Signals This report displays all results generated during the scan. You can open the chart in MetaStock by clicking the name of the stock. It will open the Homan Full or One Chart.
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Rob Homan is the developer of these indicators and is considered one of the top traders and among the most respected to learn from in the world. He has won more real money, on-site, domestic and international trading competitions than any other trader anywhere. Mr. Homan oers his students a very unique live trading experience where students are able to look over his shoulder and ask questions as he trades live, in real-time. I would recommend that you follow him see how he trades using this software. He mentors traders on how to use the same techniques he uses during all of the top trading competitions and does this right on the screen in front of them in his real live trading account, something very few traders are willing to do. For more information go to www.Metastock.com
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DID W.D.GANN USE PLANETARY HOURS A S SHORT TERM CYCL CYCL ES? By D.K.Burton
There are a lot of astrological systems but they all seem to have the “Keys” missing. Its not that they don’t work, they just don’t work without the “Key” that make them work correctly It’s like a locked door to a house, the door works, but cant be unlock with out the key. It seems to me Gann understood or knew the keys to make these ancient systems work but clearly never explained or sold them to anyone, which is what he indicated. It’s like his 1941 to 1950 Ephemeris that Lambert-Gann sells, where he counts the bible number 1335 from certain new moons. The same goes with his planets averages averages they start at certain astrological combinations not always at highs and lows of the stock or commodity markets markets.. The planetary hours are based on the days of the weeks of the seven ancient planets. Most astrology system counts the day of planetary hours from sunrise. In Sepharial book “The Kabala of Numbers” part two he explains that you count from Noon. The question is, does he leave a “Key” out in his writings? writings? Because Because he says says that in the example that Tuesday the September 1913 at 5 to 6 pm has the value of 8. This means he’s using the Georgian calendar, which started in 1583. Since this method is ancient it would have to be used well before 1583, so what was the calendar that was used before then? Noon is not 12 pm, it when the Sun is directly above for a start. The Hebrew is most likely where the calendar started started when when the world was created on Saturday night, October 6, 3761 BCE. Is the 6 th October a key Gann has given in TTTTA of Marie Stanton’s birthday of 6th October 1908? If you take the Sun location on both dates using sidereal astrology they are 51 degrees apart which is a 7 th of circle the same as the 7 days of the week and the seven planetary hours. Also it is 5670 years between the two dates which when divided by 7 is 810 times (81 square of 9). The 6th October was a new moon in 3761 BC. When you do a solar return for this date in 1908 it gives you the 25th November instead of the 6th October. The interesting part is that Jupiter is at 20 degrees Leo, which is close to 19:40 Leo, Leo is for the Sun and the planetary days and hours start on Sunday. The Magic square of Sun is 6; Magic square of Jupiter is 4 (36 + 16 = 52) back to 7 (5 + 2 = 7).
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Since the days of the weeks are presentive of the planets i.e.: Sun = Sunday, numbers 1 and 4 Moon = Monday, numbers 2 and 7
Mars = Tuesday, number 9 Wednesday = Mercury, number 5 Thursday = Jupiter, number 3 Friday = Venus, number 6 Saturday = Saturn, number 8 The day order is 3 x 51.42 as the chart shows a movement of 154 degrees to go from Sunday to Monday etc.
The main question for study is what Calendar are you going to use, for me it way before 1583. Then it’s a question where do you start the New Year Year from, the Hebrew New Year, Year, Hindu or current one? Do you count planetary hours from sunrise or noon? This all the sorts of things Gann would have studied. This mostly like where his horse racing and lottery system came from. I have done some work on the horse racing with some good results but it needs more time on it. So if you use the New Moon it’s also going to change degrees and not get back to the same degree for 19 year (not exact). When TTTTA TTTTA was written written it was 19 years from 1908. Gann is dropping hints in the book. I have shown you in previous articles that the cover was coded to the square of Gann’s over lay of 144, which I discovered about 20 years ago. 144 months is 12 years, close to the Jupiter cycle of 11.86 years, Sun/Jupiter cycle is 361 days the square of 19, the same as the Metonic cycle of 19 years. From the year 1908 minus 576 (square of 24) years is 1332. 1332 divided by 2 is 666, the number for the Sun, not the beast or Saturn. Add all the numbers in the magic square of the Sun (6) they add up to 666. 1908 + 12 year is 1920
(commodity boom), 1932 (depression), 1944 close to end of World War 2), 1956, 1968 (low in commodities),
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1980 (boom in commodities), 1992 (low in commodities), 2004 (low in commodities) and 2016 (low in commodities). From 1932 to 2016 is 84 years or 7 x 12. This is the start of a major down turn in most things, but each market has its own cycle. Because the planetary tables are mostly based on the Sun and Moon as the Sun (Earth) rotates 15 degrees ever hour, moves 15 degrees every 15 days. The moon moves 15 degrees in 28 hours and half a degree every hour. The planetary hours and minutes tables are below. The planetary hours follow the Chaldean order, Saturn, Jupiter, Mars, Sun, Venus, Venus, Mercury and moon. Therefore Sunday at Noon starts with rst hour Sun, then Venus, and Mercury etc.
The Annual rulers The annual rulers run in 252 years, 1/10 th of the great year of 2,520. As I have written in previous articles this number is the lowest whole number that can be divided by 1 to 10 with no fractions left over. In Sepharials “Hebrew Astrology” he explains Mars is in Gemini for 432 years (3 x 144) from 1657 to 2089, these are 12 x 36 sub periods. The current 36-year period started in 2017 with Saturn ruling the next 36 years to 2052. The smaller sub periods with in this 36-
year period are:
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2017 Saturn in Aries 2018 Jupiter in Taurus 2019 Mars in Gemini 2020 Sun
in Cancer
2021 Venus in Leo 2022 Mercury in Virgo 2023 Moon in Libra 2024 Saturn in Scorpio, etc To study Gann you would need to have at least all Sepharials books plus everything on Gann’s reading list. There are other ideas that need to be studied like when the Moon enters its own sign of Cancer in the planetary hours hours of the other 6 plane planets? ts? The same as the Sun Sun enters the 12 signs? signs? But dierently the “Keys” are missing to Gann’s secrets, which he said would never teach or sell. Bio David has been using and studying the methods of W.D.Gann since 1983. Also studying weather cycles and sunspot cycles of Inigo Jones for the last 20 years. Currently getting developed a W.D.Gann trader program that’s pure Gann, which should have stage one ready by end of February 2018. It has taken 36 years of study to understand how this program should be developed. It won’t be expensive like all the others. Watch my face books for update. W.D.Gann trader https://www.facebook.com/WDGann360/ Inigo Jones long-term weather forecaster https://www.facebook.com/inigo360/ Commodity hedging company https://www.facebook.com/hedge360/ GANN SOFTWARE IS READY. WDGann Trader software is ready now. The purest and cheapest Gann software in the world at $180 US a year. More is to be added to stage one, then another 3 or 4 stages, but most will never have to go past stage one as it covers all you need. Then next year develop Gann horse racing and weather software. Website : www.wdganntrader.com www.wdganntrader.com Facebook www.facebook.com/wdgann360/ www.facebook.com/inigo360/ www.facebook/hedge360/
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Strategic Investment Mixology Developing The "Holy Grail" Portfolio By Steve Selengut
So what do you or your investment manager have in common with your favorite neighborhood bartender, other than the probability that you spend more time with the latter during market corrections? Antoine Tedesco, in his "The History of Cocktails", lists three things that mixologists consider important to understand when making a cocktail: the base spirit, which gives the drink its main avor; the mixer or modier, which blends well with the main spirit without overpowering it; and the avoring, which brings it all together. Similarly, your personal investment strategy needs to help you: • • •
Put together a portfolio that is based based on your nancial nancial situation, goals, and plans, providing providing both a sense of direction and a framew framework ork for decision making; Use a well well dened and consistent consistent investment investment methodology that ts well well with the plan without leading it in tangential directions; Exercise goal directed judgment in the day-to-day day-to-day decision making that brings the whole thing together and makes it productive.
Tedesco goes on to explain that new cocktails are the result of experimentation and curiosity. They reect the moods of modern day society, and change rapidly as both bartenders and their customers seek out and popularize new and dierent concoctions. The popularity of most newbies is generally eeting while the reign of the old stalwarts is history... with the exception, perhaps, of "Goat's Delight" and "Hoptoad". But, rest assured, Manhattans, Martinis, and all y'all's Mint Juleps are here to stay. It's likely that many of the products, derivatives, funds, and fairy tales now popular on Wall Street were thrown together after "ti many martunies" at Bobby Van's or Cipriani's. And just like alcohol, addictive products created in lower Manhattan have led many an optimistic speculator down the Holland tubes. The most popular of today's nancial products are, themselves, Wall Street's creative response to the speculative mood of an impatient (and, perhaps, eort averse) society. The "wizards" experiment tirelessly; their customers' search for the Holy Grail portfolio cocktail is endless; the
basic (perhaps boring) fundamental principles of investing are roundly ignored... they re just not that tasty anymore.
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Investment portfolio mixology doesn't take place in the smiley faced environment Investment environment that brought us the Cosmo and the Kamikaze, but putting an investment portfolio cocktail together without the risk of addictive speculations, or a bad aftertaste, is surely a talent worth developing. A trip to your local "portfolio tending" school would introduce you to an interesting, action based, curriculum in the "investment "investment mixology" discipline. Some brief course description teasers follow this sidebar. sidebar. •
Passive investing is popular because mutual fund "managers" don't consistently "beat" either market or sector indices. But why is this so? Mutual funds are really "managed" by their own mob of unit holders. If the fearful mob wants out of the market, the order taker must sell securities. When greed rules, the order taker must buy securities. This is hardly portfolio management... and ETF prices? Dictated by the very same mob.
IM 101: Understanding Investment Securities Investment securities can be divided into two major classes, making the planning exercise called Investment asset allocation relatively straightforward. straightforward. The purpose of the equity class is to generate growth in the form of (realized) capital gains. Income securities are expected to produce a predictable and stable cash ow in the form of dividends, interest, etc. Lesson One is the importance of having an appropriate mix of growth purpose and income purpose securities. In my practice, for example, I refuse to manage a 100% equity (growth purpose) portfolio. portfolio. I insist upon having at least l east 30% (preferably 40%) of capital working to produce income... because my experience has taught me just how reluctant people are to add to portfolios during the correction phase of the market cycle.
IM 202: Minimizing "Financial" Risk All investment securities involve both nancial and market risk, in addition to several others. Financial risk (the ability of the companies, or governments whose securities you own, to meet their commitments) is clearly the most important. But Wall Street, the media, your golf, buddies, spouses, etc, are much more concerned concerned with "market" risk.. which is really not a risk at all. It's not "risk" because it is the basic spirit of investing... all security market values uctuate. There's no stopping it, so the investment process must must be designed to deal with it. And that will be much more dicult if it doesn't address "nancial risk" eectively from the get go. Lesson Two, without going into nearly enough detail, teaches the use of "four essential risk minimizing" minimizing" ingredients... no, not just the one or two with the familiar avor. All four are necessary or your cocktail will fail to produce the desired euphoric impact... eventually.
•
apply classical diversication rules to position size, size, security security type, sector sector representation, representation, and global participation, among others.
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• •
•
only select securities securitie s oered by high in fundamental quality, protable protabl e companies and/or actually managed portfolios with ve or more year successful track records own no equity security that does not pay dividends; own no income purpose security that is illiquid, and the nal one, that each of you reading this is guilty of ignoring much more often than not, particularly during rallies... let no reasonable prot go unrealized
If you have minimized the nancial risk, market value uctuation will become an expected and welcomed feature of all your securities... it is semi-predictable, cyclical, manageable, and easy to take advantage of.
IM 303: Day To Day Management Decision Making There are three basic decision processes that require guideline development and procedural disciplines: • What to buy and when, • What to sell, and why • What to hold on to so long as it is doing its job. Books have been written on each of these processes, mine includes a chapter on each... but creating the necessary buying, selling, and holding guidelines is only half as important as having the discipline to implement them... all the time, without looking back. • There's absolutely no room for hindsight in investment portfolio management Lesson Three involves "information ltering", or applying the K.I.S.S. principle to protect your process. It's important to limit information inputs, and to develop lters and synthesizers synthesizers that simplify decision-making. decision-making. What to listen to, and what to allow into the decision making process is part of the experienced manager's skill set... kind of like knowing when the additional avoring or modier will overpower the main spirit of the cocktail. Wall Wa ll Street mixologists promote promote cocktails that have broad popular appeal but which typically create unpleasant aftertastes... like bursting bubbles, market crashes, and shareholder lawsuits.
IM404: The Indispensable "Spirit" of All Portfolio Cocktails •
Grow the "base income" every month, every quarter, every year and you will approach retirement with the ability to say, unequivocally: "neither a market correction nor rising interest rates will have a negative impact on my retirement income. In fact, the impact may well be positive." (Base income is the total of dividends and interest produced by the portfolio.)
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IM505: Final Exam Prep Five conceptual ingredients that you need to blend into your “holy grail” investment cocktail. • •
•
•
Using indices and averages as benchmarks for evaluating your performance ignores your asset allocation and the diering purposes of the securities you own. Using calendar months, quarters and years as measuring devices reduces the investment process to short-term speculation, ignores market and interest rate cycles, increases fear of market volatility, and guarantees disappointment with whatever strategy or methodology you employ ... most of the time. Buying any type or class of security, commodity, index, or contract at historically high prices and selling high quality companies or debt obligations for llosses osses during cyclical corrections eventually dilutes the strength of your cocktail. Technical analysis contains excellent tools for developing an understanding of the past... nothing can predict the future. Growth in market value fuels the ego; growth in realized income fuels the yacht.
• Cheers!
Please join my private article mailing list Please join my Linked In network Steve Selengut Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor" http://retirementreadyincomeprograms.com
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Introduction to Hidden Geometry By Ron Jaenisch
Can you recall a time when you learned something that left you feeling compelled to know a lot more, because you knew that it will get you to where you want to go? As you read this article, you will most likely have that feeling again. If you could easily forecast that a stock or index would make a powerful move in a specic direction during the next ten or so candles would that be useful to you? Would you be able to make money with that? If you could forecast the next ve or ten candles would you be more successful with technical analysis? If you answered yes to any of the above questions then read on. Let’s start with the easy stu. To draw the Andrews Pitchfork you select three consecutive pivot points.
Price will make it to the middle line, most of the time.
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When price movement movement is strong it will close beyond the middle / median line.
After price goes up through the median line it pulls back and then goes further in the original direction.
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After price goes down through the median line is goes back to it and then goes further in the original direction.
The zoom/close through the Median Line forecasts the next up and down move.
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A zoom failure occurs when price fails to make new highs as expected.
Zoom failures do not go past the next median line.
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During a zoom failure pattern there may be a zoom in the opposite direction.
Failure of price to hit the Median Line indicates a longer move in the next direction.
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Sometimes a zoom is in a counter trend Median Line and then a further move (down) (down) often occurs.
Zoom plus Median Line not made precedes long/strong moves.
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After a zoom up and price failure to make the median line, a strong move is normal.
After a zoom a counter move may fail to make it to the Median Line and the strong move continues.
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Here is an example in Gold.
This can also be applied to soybeans prices. prices. This can be combined with other hidden geometry methods. Over time you will develop
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a strong feeling for more insights, the most complete resource is hps://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=qbGbS49bn08
It is a limited edition and almost sold out.
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ANOTHER LOOK AT FINDING MONEY TO SAVE. By Jacob Singer
NEEDS ANALYSIS Look to Spreadsheet 1 and Spreadsheet 2, the Needs Analysis and Insurance spreadsheets. Use the example shown to determine your own insurance needs. I have given example on the life of two ctitious people, Gary and Diane. Simply copy the example to a spreadsheet and change the names to your own and that of your spouse, then ll in the gures. The nal answer, Total Additional Capital Needed, is the amount of insurance you need. Do not forget that insurance for your house, if it is mortgage insurance via a bank, I believe is not a good thing, simply because the bank can cancel it at any time. Rather take out additional term insurance to cover the mortgage, reducing it as the mortgage reduces. In the needs analysis this gure is included in the total insurance insurance required. All the assets and liabilities shown in Spreadsheet Spreadsheet 1 and Spreadsheet Spreadsheet 2 are purely for illustration purposes. If you have additional assets, not shown on the analysis, do add them. By carefully determining the amount of insurance you and your spouse may need, you should be able to save $20 per month. This does not sound like very much, but if you already own a term policy, you may be able to reduce the premium. As I wrote earlier, whatever you do, NEVER put your family at risk. Use the analysis to carefully check whether or not you are over insured. Pension Plan If you are fortunate enough to belong to a pension plan at your place of employment, make a point of nding out whether your plan includes life insurance, medical insurance and any other benet. Familiarize yourself with your pension plan so that you do not duplicate any benets outside of the plan. Do discuss your pension plan with your nancial planner.
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TAX DEFERRAL STRATEGIES Tax deferral strategies are a way of investing part of your income so that you will only pay tax at a later date, when you are at the lower marginal tax rate sometime in the future, like when you retire and are no longer earning. With a tax deferral strateg strategy y you are also paying taxes with discounted dollars, that is where ination reduces the buying value of the dollar.
Tax deferral strategies allow you to accumulate wealth using GROSS income, that is, before net income (income after tax). You will therefore have more capital to work with. This should be viewed as an interest free loan from your Government. If interest IS charged, it is usually very low. I will not discuss in any depth the several physical assets which are not only taxed advantageously, but also, over the long term, tend to be hedges against ination. They are listed below so that you may discuss them with your nancial planner. Principal residence. Real estate is generally a good hedge against ination over the long term. Furthermore,, any capital gains made on the sale of a principal residence are tax free in many Furthermore countries. Many countries also oer a deferral on Property Taxes when you are above a certain age. Take advantage of what is oered, because in the majority of iinstances, nstances, your property will increase in value greater than the interest charged on the deferred Property Tax. Never forget, it is your heirs that gain from the rise in the value of the property should you live in your home forever. If you decide to move to an old age home as you age, the sale of your house should cover all the expenses that you have to meet. Do not worry about your heirs. You do not want to die the richest person in the cemetery. Listed personal property refers to such things as art, jewellery, rare books, antiques and stamp and coin collections. Tax payers are exempt from capital gains tax on disposal of the property if the amount is below a certain value, an amount which should be conrmed by your nancial planner. Retirement savings plan. Many countries do have a plan where investors can invest money tax free until a retirement age. Various other tax deferral strategies, such as income splitting; paying a salary to family members; living trusts; small business corporations and many other tax savings schemes may be available in the country you live in. If you are self employed, or operating a small business on the side, there are many more tax planning opportunities available to you. As an example,
you can deduct home oce expenses. All, these tax deferral strategies should be discussed with your nancial planner or tax consultant. Tax planning is a science in itself, one of the reasons the
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wealthy usually have a low tax rate. REDUCING DAILY EXPENSES Reducing Reduc ing your daily expenses is probably one of the most diculty things to do and is primary in preparing a budget, the reason why the rest of this book will be devoted to ways to reduce expenses. Last Expenses These include medical bills, funeral and burial costs; current household expenses; bank and outstanding loans; unpaid property taxes; probate costs; legal and executor fees; unpaid income i ncome tax and capital gains tax generated generated by deemed disposition at death. Education Fund. Education Fund You should budget for $10,000 per child which, if invested strategically, will give each child sucient capital when they reach 18 years of age, to pay for a University education. Emergency Fund. Calculate three months of total family income in your budget. This is to provide funds should an emergency arise. Other Expenses. Expenses. With Other Expenses, I am estimating care and replacement costs of equipment, like a washing machine, dishwasher etc. The gure shown is based on present needs. Discount Rate variable. The expected rate of return, adjusted by the ination rate, which is the real rate of return. SHOULD YOU BUY OR RENT A HOME? The rst decision most families make is whether to buy or rent a home. This is always a dicult decision to make because it becomes an emotional one. Everyone believes that owning a house is an advantage over renting. This is not necessarily so, but let’s face it, owning your own home and living in it for the rest of your life, is a great nancial asset. The second decision you have to make is what type of accommodation you should invest in.
Do you need a house, a town-house or a condominium? Generally this will be dictated by aordability considerations, although a great deal of emotion will also aect your decision. You
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should always list the advantages and disadvantages of owning a house or a condominium. For example, a condominium will depreciate in value faster than a house or townhouse because the value of a house is in the value of the property. With a condominium, the property component is small and will have a small property value. Furthermore, in a group ownership or strata situation, one is subject to group decisions, and therefore one has less control. The only benet group ownership has, is the spread of costs among owners.
Owning a house is an emotional decision. If you intend to start a family, a yard and ‘play-space’ for children is a must. Never forget that the price of a home is the price of the property which appreciates in value over time. The house itself is a depreciating asset. (Do be careful where you buy your home. Make sure that the neighbourhood you buy in, is one that is growing in value.) Do not forget in your calculations, to consider where you need to live, such as the proximity to your employment, school and shopping centre, as well as the price and aordability of your intended purchase. PAY YOUR MORTGAGE ASAP Paying down the mortgage bond on your home is one of the most eective ways of accumulating wealth. The growth factor is the reason for this. When you borrow money on a mortgage bond, you are actually borrowing expensive money. The rate per annum is usually compounded monthly. By paying down your bond, you are guaranteed the interest rate you would pay… a tax free return which is dicult to beat. The company that grants you a mortgage calculates interest on a monthly basis, adding the amount to the outstanding balance every month. When you pay your instalment, instalment , the payment is deducted from the total outstanding. On the other hand, when you save money, you will receive only the smallest interest rate possible, and then only if you have a certain minimum balance in your account. Moreover, the government does tax you on the interest received as income. What then is the better course to follow? Pay o your mortgage or save your cash? We all know the answer to this question. PAY OFF YOUR MORTGAGE. Arguments against paying o a mortgage early
A mortgage bond paid today is paid with ‘good money,’ that is at today’s values. However, the
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bond paid in the future is paid in devalued money – money made cheaper by ination. This argument can be negated by the fact that after a bond has been paid, moneys that would have been used to pay that bond can now be invested in growth equity. Investing in growth does carry a higher risk, but a careful and diversied investing investing strategy can result in a successf successful ul growth portfolio. History has shown that growth, over a period of time, has always bettered ination. With ination at low rates, growth is very much an advantage. Paying o the mortgage also allows the residence to be used as collateral for further borrowing which can be invested. Yes, the risk does increase and such a strategy should only be taken in special low risk investments. Do remember that the advantage of borrowing money is a tax saving, because the interest paid is tax deductible. Also, if invested wisely, there is growth in the investment, growth made with borrowed money. Just make sure that the capital gains, or interest received is greater that what you are paying on the loan by at least 50%. Another argument against a quick repayment of your mortgage is that your lliquidity iquidity is reduced. However, the purpose is long-term saving, and you cannot combine a long-term investment with liquidity and still expect a high rate of return. The amount of liquidity required will be determined by the variance of your income. For example, if you are a self employed commission agent, the variation in your income will be far greater than for example, a unionized employee, who receives a xed monthly amount plus a pension. You will therefore have to carry a higher liquidity to cover the income risk. Most family nancial structures suggest a degree of liquidity in planning a nancial structure. If you have paid excesses on a mortgage, simply stopping payments gives you the liquidity needed in case of an emergency. Renting has the advantage of allowing more exibility, because it does result in costs other than moving expenses, when changing a residence. Because of realtor, transfer and other costs, buying a home should be for the long term. Costs involved can be amortized over time. However, there are times when selling a principal residence is an advantage, such as when the price of a house has risen sharply. sharply. Should that occur, occur, it is worth investigating whether you can nd a suitable house in another neighbourhood and so realize the capital the sale of the property provides. This can occur when your children leave home and the house is now too large for just two people. By relocating to a condominium, cheaper in price but as comfortable as your house, you can invest the capital released and receive an interest income. Look into splitting your mortgage loan. By this I mean taking a line of credit (overdraft). (overdraft). Often the interest paid on that line of credit, could be cheaper, because by depositing your monthly
salary and drawing cash as needed to pay expenses, you are reducing the amount owed, and in this way the interest charged. You can also pay o your line of credit as and when it suits you.
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TO SUM UP Security is the main concern of every family. It is commonly thought that the security of owning a home is a major need, but is this correct? Renting a home is not always a bad thing; sometimes it is better than buying a home. Keep in mind that it is always better to rent for a longer period of time, this way you can make a greater down payment when a house is eventually purchased. The decision to buy a house rather than a condominium denitely has its advantages, especially if there are children. The only advice I can give you, is that the purchase of a house that you intend to live in, should be considered a long term investment and not an investment for a short term capital gain. Of course the seller may have erred in their price or market prices may have dipped alarmingly for the short term, but that seldom happens. In most cases, you will overpay when you buy a home to live in. However you should not be concerned, for in the long run prices do rise and should you decide to sell, you will get your money back, plus. Do not, under any circumstances be sucked into buying a property where a bank oers you 100% mortgage. Always make sure that you make, at the very least, a down payment of 20% - 25%, the greater the better. The recent mortgage backed crises in the USA, where many lost their homes because they had been suckered into a 100% mortgage, with no deposit, is a lesson that can be learned. As interest rates rose home owners could no longer aord to pay their monthly payment and so lost their house and whatever monies they had paid to the bank. Another caution is that you should not over capitalise on repairs and maintenance. maintenance. When you buy a house, let your agent give you a list of faults that need to be repaired. Ask a number of repairmen for a quote and always choose the cheapest. Negotiate, negotiate and negotiate. THE DECISION WHETHER TO BUY A CAR OR NOT Most families need a motorcar so that they may enjoy their free time exploring the countryside countryside.. Yes… in a city, municipal transportation is in many instances, excellent, but there are occasions when municipal transportation transportation simply cannot help, an example being collecting a child after a birthday party at 10:30 pm. The budget therefore includes the need for a family to buy one car car,, outlining the costs involved. When you buy a car, try and pay cash if at all possible, because, as you drive that car out of the dealer you purchased it from, its price drops by approximately 20%. It is also better to buy a used car instead of a new car, because the value of a used car depreciates less. The rst few years of owning a new car, also sees a large depreciation in value. For this reason, you should drive the new car for at least ten years. The car should also be regularly serviced
because, not servicing a car will cost you in the long term.
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Do note, locally manufactured cars represent better value than imported cars, simply because they are cheaper to service and maintain. Do your homework, and if possible buy privately – you will then save salesman commission and any sales tax. If you intend to buy a second car, evaluate the cost of vehicle insurance, repair and fuel costs against the reason for the purchase of the car. It is not clever to pay approximately $200 odd per month (estimated cost) if you are able to catch municipal transport to your place of employment. To own a second car solely to give you the freedom to play golf whenever or wherever is a no-no. If a second car is needed for business, and you are able to write o all expenses against income, then a budget should be carefully prepared to determine the feasibility of owning or even leasing the car. Leasing a car has become popular because of the low interest rates presently oered by dealers. A monthly payment over ve years, with the option to trade in the car after two years, sounds very tempting and attractive. However, unless you can write o the lease payments against business income, it should not be considered. considered.
One further word of advice, do be practical when buying a car. If you are planning a family, a two door sports car will end up costing money in the long run, because at some stage, a trade in for a larger car will be necessary. Never forget that a car depreciates yearly. Finally, when buying a car, try to pay cash. Borrowing money from a bank on a line of credit may be the way to go, but do check the interest charged on that line of credit and compare it to the interest charged on a lease. Include a clause in the contract that either xes the iinterest nterest charged or allows you to buy out the loan, should interest rates increase.
SPREADSHEET 1
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SPREADSHEET 2
JACOB SINGER Ph.C The VASE with the MANY COLOURED MARBLES Book 1 EMMA. Book 2 MARLA BRAKENSTROOM Short stories of South Africa. The SENSIBLE APPROACH to FINANCIAL FREEDOM How to Budget your Income and retire early. The MASTER of the HOUSE. http://www.jacobashersinger.com/ http://patroosp.blogspot.ca/ http://koospetroos.blogspot.ca/
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Available from Amazon and iTunes as well as bookstores http://www.jacobashersinger.com http://www.freepublicitygroup.com/release_jacob_singer_dec113.html
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Elliott Wave Analysis & Price Forecasts 2018’s DECLINE A CORRECTION WITHIN SECULAR-BULL UPTREND by Peter Goodburn It looks like 2018 set quite a few records! The exponential advance that carried over from December 2017 into January ’18 nally reached a terminal peak on January 31st at 26616.70, Dow Jones (DJIA) and 2872.87, the S&P 500 – both then staged an inverted ‘V’-shaped reversal decline that initially shaved -4.6% o values. CNN CNN reported reported it was the ‘scariest day on Wall Street in years…the biggest decline since August ’11…the Dow plunged almost 1,600 points easily the biggest point decline in history during a trading day’. day’. That was only the beginning though! Declines continued continued through February until it formed a low 2-weeks later - but by that time, indices were down by -11.8% per cent. Volatility continued afterwards – it only took another 2-weeks for the S&P 500 to trade up by +10% per cent – which was just prior to a downswing into the early-April lows, a decline of -8.8% per cent! By that time, sentiment turned really bearish - Investors Intelligence reported that ‘Bulls’ declined from 47.6 to 42.2 which was the lowest bullish reading since right before the US presidential election of November November 2016. The number of ‘Bears’ rose marginally but remained at a low historical gure of 18.6. What did the markets do next? – they ran higher albeit at a more modest pace but advancing by +15.0% per cent until it reached the late-Septem l ate-September/early-Oct ber/early-October ober highs – then bam! The Dow and S&P collapsed lower. USA Today reported Today reported ‘the U.S. stock market suered its biggest October decline since the 2008 nancial crisis, prompting shaken investors to reassess the staying power of a bull run that began more than nine years ago’. Following rallies into November, markets declined again in early-December. London’s Financial Times reported Times reported ‘Volatility leaves Wall Street set for worst December since Great Depression’. Christmas Eve’s (December 24th’s) decline was particularly severe as the Dow (DJIA) gapped lower by 667 points delivering a -19.8% per cent psychological psychologic al punch from October’s high. The S&P 500 registered a decline of -20.2% per cent, the threshold that many economists dene as a ‘bear market downtrend’. But it’s not just economists that have turned bearish since the markets declined to that 20% per cent threshold – mainstream Elliott Wave practitioners have also sounded the alarmbells too, forewarning of a secular-bear downtrend underway! But if we pick through the too, evidence, and remain objective with it, then a very dierent, more bullish outlook for
Wall Street and global indices emerges.
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Review - 2018 With such volatile price-swings over the last year, you might think they’re impossible to predict, but in actual fact, the opposite is true! – THEY ARE PREDICTABLE! Just after the late-January ’18 downswing, our analysis identied the February February low in the S&P 500 at 2529.00 (futures) was not the beginning of a secular-bear downtrend but part of a 4th wave correction within the continuation of the existing secular-bull secular-bull uptrend – see g #1.
This idea was being corroborated by the fact that the following rally from the Feb.’18 low of 2532.69 (cash) had unfolded into a ve wave impulse pattern to 2789.15 which conferred
upside continuity, continuity, as a zig zag, labelled (a)-(b)-(c). A correction followed in the form of an expanding at for wave (b), but then the rally continued from the April low of 2553.80 – see g #2.
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In this update, a more complex correction for the larger 4th wave was depicted as a declining zig zag, [a]-b]-[c] where wave [b] would trade back towards the Jan’18 high. Wave [c] would then collapse lower towards 2458.50+/-. 2458.50+/-. This was later modied to an expanding at but importantly, it maintained the Feb. ’18 to Sep.’18 upswing, from 2532.69 to an eventual high of 2490.91 as completing into a zig zag – see g #3.
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Validating the Feb-Sep.’18 upswing as a zig zag ensured the following decline would simply be the third and nal sequence of the complex 4th wave corrective pattern
forecast back in February ’18. ’18. Logically, through dedication, that itself went a long way in conrming the continuation of the secular-bull uptrend.
But it’s dangerous to rely on the analysis of just one index, like the S&P 500. In our annual 2019 STOCK INDEX VIDEO REPORT PART I, I, we’ve cross-referenced the S&P’s corrective pattern with over 30 other indices and economic indicators, including an Elliott Wave overlay/ wave count of the U.S. Consumer Sentiment index, Consumer Condence, Price-to-Book and Price-to-Sales ratios, even Robert Shiller’s P/E CAPE ratio – all point towards the concept of prolonging the secular-bull uptrend.
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What Next? Preview for 2019 – U.S. Benchmark Indices There’s a lot of competing aspects to consider this year and to gain a realistic glimpse of what’s to come, we’re going to have to separate the proverbial wheat from the cha. That means being unbiased and relying on the facts. The dominant Elliott Wave theme is that September/October’s highs ended a ve wave impulse uptrend that began from the nancial-crisis lows of Oct.’08/March ’09 - but is this correct? If the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices are analysed in isolation, then there’s a reasonable chance this ended a ve wave ‘structure’. But when examining the same pattern in log-scale and overlaying Fibonacci-Price-Ratio Fibonacci-Price-Ratio analysis to verify, the pattern begins to degrade – no conrmation is forthcoming. Furthermore, back in year-2000 at the height of the dot.com boom and several years later at the highs of October 2007, developed market indices formed corres corresponding ponding terminal highs with Emerging Markets and Commodities – positive corrections combined with terminal Elliott Wave uptrends formed at the same time. They declined together in corrective synchronisation in the sell-os that followed. But synchronised EW-pattern highs never happened in 2018. 2018. In fact, Emerging Markets and Commodities are still engaged in ve wave uptrends that resumed in early 2016 and are far from completed. Yes, they began corrective downswings in 2018 but that’s all. But that means the secular-bull uptrend for U.S. and other global indices is still in upside progress! Consider this – the Nasdaq 100 advance from its Oct.’02 low of 795.25 – has that ended an adequate ve wave impulse uptrend into the 2018 high? – see g #4. That’s highly improbable because even a cursory glance at the pattern doesn’t conjure any 4th wave correction, nor a 5th wave advance to follow. Only THREE WAVES are visible into the 2018 highs. Just look at how the 3rd wave, labelled intermediate wave (3) is contained into a tight parallel channel – 4th waves commonly break below before resuming higher. This conrms waves (4) and (5) are still in progress, again, conrming the prolongation of the secular-bu secular-bull ll uptrend.
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Closing Remarks This Nasdaq 100 chart does not attempt to predict the short-term movements – our bi-weekly reports do that job – but as a closing remark, we’ve identied several peripher peripheral al U.S. and European indices that have already unfolded higher from the late-December late-December ’18 lows into FIVE WAVE IMPULSE PATTERNS. That alone conrms some indices formed MAJOR LOWS LAST DECEMBER and and are now trending higher. That doesn’t exclude some deep retracements though, sometime in February, and perhaps modest lower-lows for those indices which unfolded higher through January into three wave corrective patterns. Peter Goodburn is the senior Elliott Wave analyst at WaveTrack Internation International al and is the author of the monthly institutional E l li li o t t W a v e - N a v i g a tto o r report report and the bi-weekly individual investor E l li li o t t W a v e - C o m p a s s report - $39.00 pm. For information to subscribe to the annual 2019
STOCK INDEX VIDEO REPORT PART I – I – please click this link http://blog.wavetrack.com/ stock-index-video-2019/ alternatively, details at www.wavetrack.com stock-index-video-2019/
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Mindfulness in Trading: Building the Emotional Self Control to Achieve Your Potential By Rande Howell
Getting Blindsided by Implicit Emotional Brain Beliefs Trading success seems so simple in principle, then the reality of trading blindsides traders. Without having a clue about what they are getting themselves themselves into, traders walk into an emotional mineeld for which they are completely unprepared and end up paying the price of emotionally undisciplined undisciplined tradin trading. g. The thinking, logical left brain brain simply gets blown out out of the water consistently by primitive emotional responses to the stress of trading. Yet few acknowledge the power that emotion and trading psychology have on achieving their potential in trading. It is almost like there is a conspiracy conspiracy in the deep deep state of tra trading ding to keep this knowledge out of sight and out of mind. With all their training, traders are taught to think naively and to believe they are ready to manage the uncertainty and risk of trading – and they do so until they actually experience uncertainty and risk which triggers their survival instincts. Yet as hard as they strive for success by developing their knowledge and gaining experience, trade traders rs walk through a door into a world which is alien to them. Emotional cascades of fear, fear, aggression, and over-condence erupt and spiral their trading minds out of control, blowing up their capacity to get to the next level in their trading. Then, out of dogged-determination dogged-deter mination to win by perseverance, they do it again and again. The pattern does not not make sense sense until they learn how to look look at it with new eyes. Let’s take a more common example of an instance where the brain supplies a performance mind that is blind to the dangers of a new reality. It is not just in trading that that this phenomenon phenomenon happens. I live in a rural area of the Piedmont Piedmont of North Carolina where we just experienced a powerful and freakish snowstorm. In this area of
the country, with its lack of knowledge of how to manage snow, everything stopped because the roads were frozen in deep ice and snow. snow. People were told to stay home and o the roads.
And
the remote road road I live on is one of the last roads roads to be salted and plow plowed ed in the area. It is
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curvy, goes up and down hills, crosses creeks, and has lots of shadowy areas where the sun does not melt the ice on the road. Remember, these are curvy, up and down roads covered by ice and snow – that’s important to remember.. (Think of this as the unpredictability of the markets.) That’s the emotional mineeld remember that many drivers, for some unexplained reason, have to travel on even though the authorities give explicit instructions for people to stay o the roads (particularly the back roads like mine). In trading, I would call this mindlessness. So what do you think (mostly men) people do? (Remember to compare this to trading.) They get in their muscular pick-ups and SUVs with 4-wheel drive and decide that they have to go somewhere – just like traders believing they have to be trading to be trading. They have to prove themselves (that’s the alpha trader). Revving up their engines and sensing that power, power, the drivers feel safe and condent in their testosterone laden trucks (like their sure re trading methodologies and platforms), and that 4 wheel drive of theirs which gives them power to control outcome. They are large and in-charge. This is the perception of reality in which they live. And, in their mindlessness, they do not recognize that a frozen road is still frozen, and their heavy duty, 4 wheel drive trucks still slip and slide every time they hit a patch of ice in a turn. They are blind to that reality as they enter the mineeld with the utmost condenc condence e in themselves themselve s and their machines. This is the illusion of control that breeds ove overcondenc rcondence e and blindness of the reality into which they have have just jumped, jumped, due to their mindlessness. mindlessness. It is the mindset of the alpha that pushes to make things happen, to win, to not take “no” for an answer, and they enjoy putting themselves to the test. Fear based drivers and traders act from a dierent set of beliefs about managing their reality. reality. You know what happens when they engage a reality beyond their understanding – they deceive themselves themselves until they get get whacked, just just like traders. They hit the black ice as they are entering turns or as they start descending a particularly steep hill leading to a bridge over the creek. Four or ve trucks end end up skidding o the road because they are going too fast (in their overcondence) around iced roads. Or their trucks go sideways on them as they start braking while going down the steep hill – and discover that in the reality of the snow storm they have no traction, traction, despite their belief of being being in control. They are confronted confronted with a reality for which which they are unprepared. You would think that they would learn, but they just get bigger trucks – believing they will have control then. (As for traders, they just keep keep looking for the Holy Grail.) The very same thing happens in trading every day day.. But before trading, you lived in a reality outside of trading that has a set of rules with which you learned to operate successfully. In this world:
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- You learn that hard work pays o. - You learn that you can make things happen rather than just sitting around waiting - You learn to have a winning attitude. - You learn to not think like a loser – nobody who seeks success wants to lose. - You learn to act condently. - And especially you learn learn to be right (and not wrong). wrong). These success success rules seem to work in most endeavors in life. So why would they not work in trading? The winning mindset beco becomes mes the biases, assumptions, assumptions, and beliefs that you bring to trading. The problem is that the reality of trading oper operates ates from a completely dierent dierent set of rules tha than n your brain initially normalized. normalized. The old rules brought brought survival and success, so they have been wired into automatic responses (limbic learnings) that trigger without the participation participation of the thinking thinking brain. They operate operate outside of working working awareness using a language that the thinking brain does not even recognize – emotional learning. The thinking brain, using its logic and reason as the ground of understanding reality, does not perceive the emotional learnings that dominate more than 90% of how the brain operates. Translated – the vast majority of trading decisions you make are made at the unconscious unconscio us emotional level and the thinking brain never knows about the decision until after the fact. The thinking brain brain is blind to the presence presence of emotions, emotions, even while they are hijacking hijacking rational thought. thought. They are just like the truck truck drivers who are dangerously dangerously clueless clueless about managing their trucks on ice and snow. snow. Until you make the implicit emotional emotional brain a partner with the conscious thinking brain, you will never be able to change the way you act under the stress of risking capital in an uncertain world. Everyday Reality vs. Trading Reality Reality Much like the drivers of 4 wheel drive pick-ups and SUVs, who know the reality of what their machines can do on a road but are clueless to the reality of snowstorm driving, traders bring a mindset to trading that does not match up with the realities of successfully successfully managing the uncertainty inherent in trading. The reality that has to be faced is that the markets markets are random, to a large degree. And traders are looking for set-ups that represent a probability of a pattern showing up in that randomness. randomness. Sometimes the set up pattern does form and does follow the pattern of the prediction. And often it does not. This is the randomness randomness or the uncertainty that drives the primitive emotional brain of a trader nuts. Your brain evolved to seek certainty and control over outcome – even if it had to lie to itself. How many times as a trader have you decided that you are right and pushed your agenda onto the markets in your decision making? That need to be right (and not wrong)
is a deeply wired survival trait that operates implicitly (out of conscious awareness) from its home in the emotional brain. Then the thinking brain makes up a narrative to support what the
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emotional brain has already already decided. This is all happening outside of conscious conscious awareness. awareness. Logic and reason does not run the show. You simply rationalize rationali ze the deeply held beliefs that drive your emotional brain’s perception of dangers and opportunities opportunit ies in the world. Your brain also cannot tell the dierence between a real biological threat to life and the psychological psychological discomfort of making a decision based on ambiguity. Your brain makes decisions about survival in the short term, based on the level of threat perceived. perceived. The closer the cause and eect eect (loss or win) is, the more powerful the emotional brain is triggered to respond on a level of instinct (outside of conscious awareness). awareness). This is what gets gets the trader trader in trouble. This is a very dierent reality reality than the rules that governed governed success or failure before before trading. Now the trader is like the guy who drives his big hulking pick-up or SUV onto the icy roads without understanding what he is getting into. Before the snow storm, he felt he was in control behind the wheel of his powerful machine. The snow storm brought new rules that he is mindless to. Cause and eect catches up with his faulty thinking. Trading requires that you give up the illusion of control – which goes against 6.5 million years of successful successf ul survival adaptation through evolution. evolution. The brain you brought brought to trading loathes the uncertainty and randomness of the markets and it triggers you, the trader, to ght/ight instinctual instinctu al responses in your encounters with uncertainty. Your brain also wants to be right. And in trading you discover that you can do everything right and still be wrong due to the randomness of the trading reality. Your brain is simply going to need to be retrained for the reality of trading. To change the brain and mind, you are going to have to become a community activist.. That’s the way your brain and mind operate. activist Learning to Be Aware of the Community of the Self Beyond learning how to regulate your emotional nature, there is also the need to become much more aware of what actually actually is going on in your mind. As you learn to become mindful, mindful, you discover the mind is actually more like a community of voices, rather than speaking with a single voice. This is the the link between between brain brain and mind. mind. What you are experiencing experiencing are emotional programs that have been adapted by experience and are given voice as your thoughts. They become locked into place on a synaptic level in neural networks by limbic learning and are typically typicall y in conict with one another. another. You experience this situation situati on when you are “of two (or more) minds” about something or when you cannot make up your mind among various options. By learning how to observe the mind as you trade, you will start noticing how unruly and noisy it can be, and how it needs to be reshaped for probability management rather than the certainty focus from which your brain currently acts. Have you ever really tuned in to the internal i nternal conversation conversation that is going on in your head when you are making a decision under stress? Let’s say you are experiencing self-doubt as you are
approaching an entry decision. At rst there are no set-ups on the horizon and you are just watching the markets. markets. Notice, even here, if there is anxiety about about potentially entering a trade.
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You may experience tension in your jaw, your chest, your neck, and/or shoulders, while at the same time you catch yourself breathing shallowly shallowl y. You are actually experiencing the arousal of the emotion of anxiety (worrying and anticipating what could go wrong or that you could lose). The anxiety has a biological, an emotional, and a cognitive component. component. The biology of the emotion is the muscle tension and shallow breathing that is preparing you for the instinctual ght/ight response response of the sympathetic nervous nervous system. Then you feel anxious. That’s the feeling element of anxiety. Then the self-doubt kicks in – that’s the cognitive component of your anxiety. Then you get your rst conrmation of the set up. Yes, it’s a potential actionable actionabl e trade in the making. Notice what happens now. now. The emotion builds and you start having an internal conversation where you notice the self-doubt. You doubt yourself as a trader.. You doubt this trade. And as the negative conversations in the community of the mind trader keep the pressure up, you begin to feel scared. Then comes another conrmation. It is a v valid alid set up. And if you get one more conrmation, you will need to nd the entry point and get in the trade. “But, what if you lose?” lose?” You doubt yourself yourself even even more. A critical voice voice inside your your mind screams screams about your incompetence incompetence and a small child-like voice in your mind agrees with the internal critic. The moment arrives. It’s decision time. But your ngers are frozen on the mouse. You, in fear, fear, cannot pull the trigger. trigger. An epic battle ensues. “Pull the damn trigger!” “You’re going to miss the trade!” – a familiar angry and condescending voice barks. A dense black pit gnaws at your stomach. “Why can’t I pull the trigger? Pull it! Pull it!” it!” You You rationalize rationalize getting in the trade and, simultaneously simultaneou sly,, rationalize staying out of the trade. You are not being rational rational – you are rationalizing. This is internal struggle. You want to but you can’t. The moment passes. You feel a sense of relief from the struggle. But then you watch the trade take o and make a run to your original target. Now you feel like a fool. Inside your head, you are being ridiculed. ridicul ed. And you feel ashamed – “you’ll never make it as a trader”. trader”. But next time, you decide – “I will jump into that trade.” trade.” You won’t let your demons win again. You’ll show them. Now you are setting yourself up for impulsive trading to get past your fear of entry. entry. The battle in the community of the mind rages. This is the internal struggle that goes on when an undisciplined trading mind engage engages s uncertainty and then feels vulnerability. The default programming from adaptation in your limbic brain leads to the ght/ight response response of your survival instin instincts. cts. Most traders attempt attempt to ignore or push aside this internal struggle going on among factions of your community of the mind. This may be a useful strategy outside of trading. But moving these successful old strategies from another time and place into trading produces the blocking of your potential as a trader trader.. In trading, you have to acknowledge and reorganize the community of the mind. Originally Original ly the
community communit y of the mind was organized by your survival survival instincts for short term succ success. ess. This is what I call the certainty based based mind (insuring survival survival in the short short term). The trading mind mind has to be built for probability probabili ty management (which is alien and dangerous to the emotional brain). To
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do this, fear has to be calmed. calmed. Then the brain’s emotional programs have to be reorganized at the level of belief.
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Fundamentally what you are experiencing Fundamentally while risking capital with an uncertain outcome is the limbic beliefs (below the threshold of awareness) that you hold about your capacity to manage uncertainty uncertaint y. You come stocked with a brain and mind that avoid uncertainty and want control due to the fear of biological threat to survival. Your task, in order to be a successful trader, is to reprogram the ancient survival instincts so that you are comfortable with uncertainty uncertainty and probability probability.. The fear and aggression of the limbic brain’s survival instincts when exposed to uncertainty has to be modied. modied. The emotions emotions that give rise to the community of the mind need to be comprised of discipline, courage, self-soothing, and impartiality. impartia lity. This is the emotional foundation of the probability mind.
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This mind can be built. built. It takes eort, eort, and it can happen by luck or design. A few traders do make it through the gauntlet and learn to develop the mind that is eective at managing uncertainty. The vast majority fail. Design is a better option for those serious about
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developing the mind for eective management of uncertainty. The body body,, your emotions, and your thinking brain all have to work together to produce this change. change. Start with emotional state management. Move to mindfulness so you begin to understand the beliefs behind your performances. Then start developing the emotional programs that give rise to the probability mind. mind. It is the trading mind built by design rather rather than luck. The emotional nature of the limbic brain and the logic of the
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How to Test Your Strategy on Any Market and Put the Probabilities in Your Favor By Steve Wheeler Founder and CEO of NaviTrader.com (www.navitrader.com) Professional Trader and System Designer/Developer
www.navitrader.com
Introduction Let me start by introducing myself. I am a full time trader trader,, trainer and software developer in the futures markets. I run a real time trading room two hours each trading day. day. I have traded for over 20 years, and concentrate primarily on the currency (FOREX), crude oil, gold, and stock index futures markets, such as the S & P E-mini. In a previous career, career, I w was as a practicing practicing C.P.A. C.P.A. in the state of Florida. I have developed a full suite of charts and indicators indicator s known as the Trendicator Trendicators™ s™ and a market analyzer known as the TradeFinder™, as well as a number of automated trading systems and automated buy, buy, sell, and trade management systems. What follows are the fundamental elements you need to be consistently protable in the futures markets. I have also included information below that is crucial to your overall success and in managing your risk. Preparation for trading protably consists of market observation over a period of time so that the trader can build condence in knowing what usually happens in the market and how to prot from the recurring market behavior that repeats itself every day. day. To take advantage of cycles in the markets, observe the typical move that a market moves after it moves up or down out of a range contraction pattern. The real objective is to build knowledge of probabilities of market behavior so as to take consistent prots out of specic trading instruments. The following are observations of market behavior that will help to put the probabilities in your favor. How to Test Your Strategy on Any Market
To put the probabilities in your favor, you must have an objective method or system for your trading. Patterns repeat themselves over and over in all markets, so knowing these patterns can
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help to put the probabilities probabili ties in your favor. favor. The more you can automate your trading signals, the more objective you will be in your trade selection.
You need to determine a set of technical
conditions for which you would take a long or short position in any market.
You can use
technical indicators that that are widely available, or you can develop you yourr own indicators. Once you have chosen the indicators you want to use, test them for validity in your trading. As in any testing, you need to test a statistically signicant amount of data to have a high degree of probability in terms of observing the test results. Below is an example of a chart where we have developed indicators to determine price direction and specic specic buy and and sell indicators indicators based based on price price direction and trend. trend.
The following following chart
is a NaviRenko chart of the crude oil futures featuring our Trendicator Trendicator charts along with the NaviRenko NaviRenk o buy and sell indicators based on objective algorithms.
Making money in the market is a matter of being on the right side of the market. Specic to the futures markets, there are both up and down moves each day that provide many trading opportunities.. opportunities
One approach approach to the markets is to look for evidence evidence of major major support support and
resistance levels based on chart history. history. Many people ask me which time frame that I look at for my trading, and my best answer is that I look at all of them.
A good analogy would
be that if you were going to buy or short a stock, you would most likely start by looking at a yearly, weekly or daily chart. Why would you approach the futures markets any dierently? dierently ? put the odds in your favor, you must nd things that occur over and over and trade with this information.
To
Below you will see an example of a Renko based chart of the Dow Futures chart. This chart has buy and sell signals. signals. The buy signals are the Green Green arrows pointing pointing up and the sell sign signals als
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are represented by magenta arrows pointing down.
The above chart and the system displayed by the chart are an example of a signal that will enable you you to objectively test a signal on any any chart time frame frame or or data series that you would like to test. Other examples would be, using indicators indicator s such as moving averages for buy and sell signals data.
One method method of testing is to use a trade trade simulator simulator that allows yo you u to replay the the market market You can download market replay data and test based on historical data taking trades
based on your entry and exit criteria.
You will be able to test various various stop and prot target levels
over a series of trades. trades. I would suggest that you test during the time period periods s in which you plan to trade. trade.
An example example would would be to test the S & P futur futures es from from 9:45 AM AM Eas Eastern tern time time through through
11:00 AM Eastern time, if that is the part of the day that you intend to trade. You could test using the minute based charts along with volume charts by requiring that the signals on both the minute based chart and the volume based chart are both in agreement on direction. How To Develop a System with a Positive Expectancy using The Highest Probability Setups Through trade experience and testing our charts for over 10 years, along with testing under real time conditions, I have observed that the highe highest st probability trades consist consist of using a system to determine points where two or more correlated markets such as the Dow, S &P and the Nasdaq futures are moving in the same direction directio n as in the example below.
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The top chart is the E-mini E-mini and the bottom chart chart is the Nasdaq 100 futures. futures. The magenta arro arrow w on both charts represents a sell signal on both markets at the same time. An automated approach to strategy testing is to use an automated system that will analyze the trades. To do this, you will either need to develop your own coded system or use a system that has been developed for automated. I recommend that you use an automated system to test your strategies because because it will tend to be more objective and you will be able to test over a much larger sample of data giving you a higher degree of probability that your results have statistical
signicance.
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Risk Management A primary primary downfall of of beginning beginning traders traders lies in not knowing how to manage risk.
The use use of
protective stop losses (known as stops); is one important tool in trading futures.
An even more
important tool is known as position sizing. sizing. Position sizing ans answers wers the question of how many many contracts you should trade in the futures markets, and how many shares you should buy or short in the stock market. We know that trading is all about how to react to your successes as well as trades that don’t go your way. way. management. manageme nt.
No discussion of trading would be complete without a discussion of risk
For futures trading, risk management management is established established with a combination of the
use of stop orders combined with position sizing.
You need to pair a proven strategy along
with risk management.
Risk management is accomplished, accomplished , in general, by never taking a “big”
loss on any one trade.
I suggest that you start by making sure that on any one trade, you do
not risk any more than one percent of your trading account. You will need to calculate before before you enter a trade whether you would be risking more than one percent of your trading account.
To calculate position size you need to know some basic information such as the following: Account Size •
Risk Percentage that you are assuming
•
Tick value of contract you are trading
•
Number of ticks of your initial stop loss order
A Risk Management calculation example example for the e-mini would be as follows: follows: a. Entry price = 1438.25 b. nitial Stop level =
1436.25 = 8 ticks
c. 8 ticks x tick value of $12.50
= $100
on the S & P E-mini $100 x 1 contract contract =
$100 risk on this trade.
d. Account Size = $10,000 In this example, you would be able to trade 1 contract
$10,000 x 1% = $100 maximum risk
Like any profession, you need to be prepared to take on the markets in a structured and methodical manner. manner. If you study the above principles, you will better understand overall market behavior and you will be equipped to begin to consistently benet from the great opportunities that exist each day in the markets. Platform
As you develop your trading skills, I suggest that you use a professional trading platform that will allow you to trade directly from the charts and will allow you to trade in simulation mode as well as to execute trades trades in your your live futures account.
As with any skill, the more that you
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practice, the better you you get at it.
It is important to develop your your skills regarding regarding the proper proper use
of your trading platform while in simulation mode so as to minimize trading errors after you are trading your actual trading account. Trading in simulation mode will help you to develop your condence and an overall methodology that ts your personality. Developing a Belief in Your Approach and Overcoming Fear Most traders will develop fear as they trade due to a history of losses.
Like any fear fear,, the way way to
overcome it is to face fear head on and continue to do what you fear the most.
An advantage
of having a trading platform that provides for simulation is that you will be able to trade in simulation mode, as in our example above to build a plan with a positive expectancy and thereby develop greater condence in your approach to trading. As you trade in simulation simulatio n mode, develop a set of notes that will act as the beginning of your trading plan.
Trade in simulation simulatio n
mode until you have mastered the use of the trading platform you have chosen. As you trade in simulation mode, practice developing the discipline needed to execute your trading plan. Through repetition, you will begin to develop into a polished and protable trader. Please let us know if you need any help in developing your approach to protable trading. Send an e-mail to
[email protected] with
[email protected] with any questions and visit our website at www. navitrader.com If you have any questions on the material in this publication, please send an e-mail to
[email protected] [email protected] Contact Information: Informati on:
www.navitrader.com Steve Wheeler
navitrader.com navitrader.com
800-987-6269
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Testimonials: “I've known Andrew for a number of yyears. ears. He knows cycles better than anybody I've ever met, and I've studied cycles all my life” Harry S Dent Renowned Forecaster and New York Times Best Selling Author “I believe you get what you for and have a superior product.There arepay others thatyou try to do what you do but they miss the target so many times. This is as good as a s it gets for analysis.” Chris Fletchall Hedger and Trader Trader,, USA “Andrew Pancholi’s Market Timing Report is “Andrew consistently the most accurate cycles forecast there is for traders of major markets” Peter Temple Temple Futurist - Speaker - Cycles Expert, Exper t, World Cycles Institute I have subscribed to many newsletters over the years and by far this is the best. The reasons are the combination of these 3 factors. 1) Its concise. Typically, under under 18 to 25 pages covering many markets with predictions cleanly laid out segmented nicely so you can access and review the information quickly. 2) Its accountable. In each issue, he goes over the last issues predictions, to demonstrate the accuracy. It’s sort of a “backtest” of the plan so you will become more confident and comfortable with his predictions 3) He tells you how he does it. He will show you the trendlines, pivots, and other cycle concepts as well as pitchforks, how they are drawn and why they are drawn, so that you can understand a bit of how he does it, and also this builds your confidence in his predictions. These 3 factors when combined offer a very unique value that is sincere and able to be applied by the trader. Accuracy is important, of course, but building your internal confidence every month is critical as well. This is the reason why this newsletter is
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The Foundation For The Study Of Cycles By Andrew Pancholi
At The Market Timing Report we have had considerable success in forecasting market turning points which have included the October 2018 high in the S&P500. Part of this success is due to our extensive study of cycles which includes the work of Edward Dewey. Dewey was Chief Economist to the American government. Back in 1941 President Hoover set up a governmental agency to see if the great depression of the 1930 could have been forecast. Edward Dewey headed what was to become The Foundation For The Study Of Cycles. His work with the FSC and his publications are mandatory reading for any serious student who wishes to learn to forecast. Over the last decade or so the Foundation went down a dierent path. We are now in the process of returning it to its non prot status for the greater good. You will also be able to access much detailed research on cycles from markets to nature to world events. Why am I writing about this. Quite simply because I am passionate about this work and want to see it evolved further. I am delighted to be on the Board under the chairmanship of Dr Richard Smith. Rather than me rewriting the story, Dr Richard Smith and created this message which explains what has happened and where the Foundation is now heading. Dear Friends of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, I am writing to you today as the new Chairman of the Board of the Foundation Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC). This is an important letter. letter. It is not a solicitation for funds or donations. It is an update on what has happened in the past couple of months and it is an invitation for your ideas and collaboration. collaborati on. I hope that everyone who has an aection for the FSC will take the time to read this letter carefully and then share your thoughts and hopes about the future of the FSC. Today I am excited and deeply gratied to be able to report that the FSC is back! We have a new Board of Directors, including leading cycles researchers Jake Bernstein, Larry Williams Willia ms and Andrew Pancholi and pioneering technical analyst T Tom om Demark. We have the support of other pillars of the cycles community as well, including Sherman McClellan, Bill
Sarubbi and others. We are rebuilding the FSC from the ground up. It will be a slow and steady process but the process is solidly underway and I hope that you will be inspired to join us in our eorts.
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For too long now, and in spite of all the good intentions, the FSC has been eectively run as a sole proprietorship. That is not what the FSC was meant to be. It was meant to be a community of cycles enthusiasts who are working together to discover the truth about cycles, apply our research and contribute to the healing of our fractured and out-of-balance world. A lot has happened in the past couple of months following the passing of the former Chairman David Perales. I would like to take some time now to bring everyone up to speed on what has happened and where we are now headed. Upon learning of David’s death, I immediately began to take steps to see what could be done to protect protect and preserve the assets assets and heritage of the FSC. I did so because because I care about about both the heritage and the future of the FSC and I want to see the FSC restored to what we all know it could and should be. I also did so because I cared about David and wanted to see him respectfully laid to rest. I had a lot of help from other concerned members of our community including Nathaniel Hansen, Radu Lupea, the sta in Romania, and Board members James Walker, Tim Donlea and Dan Wichhart. We all owe a debt of gratitude to them and I hope you will join me in extending our appreciation. We laid David to rest in his adopted home of Bucharest. We gathered the accounts, archives and digital assets of the FSC. We resolved urgent debts. We paid the Romanian sta back wages. We engaged engaged legal counsel to advise us on resolving all past liabilities and to position the new FSC on solid ground going forward. With all that work behind us we are ready to turn over a new leaf, and start a new cycle, in the ongoing evolution of the FSC. Since the passing of Dewey in 1978, the FSC has unfortunately had a number of problems. For the past couple of decades in particular, the FSC has been dominated by individual personalities who, while full of good intentions, primarily used the FSC to further their own personal agendas. That will not be the case under our new leadership. This letter along with the dedicated work of our new Board, and hopefully your support, mark the beginning of a new growth cycle for FSC! As your new Chairman and as the spokesperson for the new Board of Directors, I assure you that the new FSC will be committed to the original vision of its founders – Edward Dewey and W. Clement Stone in particular.
We are working diligently to re-establish the FSC as a true foundation – dedicated to the interdisciplinary interdisci plinary advancement of the study of cycles for the broad benet of humanity. humanity. The new FSC will once again be a not-for-prot and non-stock corporation that is focused on research and
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education. Of course, the FSC will always be of interest to those of us who are focused on the forecasting power of cycles in business, trading, investing and economics. That is what piqued my own interest in the study of cycles. Edward Dewey himself started out in business with Chapin Hoskins, the managing editor of Forbes.
There is a wonderful practicality to the worlds of business and speculation that makes people in these endeavors more receptive to areas of research like time-cycles. We are OK with knowing how cycles can be useful without necessarily needing to know why they occur. The FSC will continue to publish groundbreaking research and conduct workshops on how cycles can be used to predict economic events. All of the current board members are deeply engaged in this endeavor already. already. We expect to continue to deliver even greater value to members in this important area of our research. But it is clear that Dewey did not intend for the FSC to be primarily a for-prot business selling signals to nancial speculators. His vision was considerably larger, both pragmatically and academically. Early on in his most well-known book “Cycles: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events” Dewey describes his vision for the Foundation Foundation as he saw it in 1941. I’ve excerpted the highlights here. The Foundation for the Study of Cycles believes it is building a cathedral – several of them in fact. Cathedral Number One – The Advancement of Human Knowledge We are doing our part toward learning how the universe functions, for we are discovering evidence of of hitherto unsuspected unsuspected forces. forces. […]
Cathedral Number Two – The Elimination of War There is little hope of eliminating war for yourself, your children, or your grandchildren. But, hopefully, you will have great-grandchildren. It is for them we are building. […] Cathedral Number Three – the Elimination of Depressions Only by understanding understanding the forces that caused depressions depressions can we ever learn to control them. There is a growing mass of evidence that depressions depressions recur at rhythmic time intervals. […] Cathedral Number Four – the Elimination of Disease As yet only a small amount of cycle research has been done in this area, so the importance of cycle knowledge knowledge in the elimination of disease disease has not been been determined. […] Cathedral Number Five – Accurate Weather Forecasting a Year or More in Advance
How wonderful it would be if farmers could know in advance when to expect droughts, late frosts, or rainy harvests. […]
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From our present vantage point nearly 50 years after Dewey outlined the above mission for the FSC, his aspirations may seem a bit quaint – like something from a bygone era. And yet, Dewey’s mission is not easily dismissed. These are the words of Dewey himself after all, and frankly, our cynical and mechanism-fascinated age could use a little unadulterated idealism.
We believe that these are worthwhile and timeless pursuits and we seek to rededicate the Foundation of the Study of Cycles to an updated and contemporary version Dewey’s original vision which we will work to rene and communicate in the coming months. As the sciences of human behavior, economics, biology and articial intelligence continue their geometric growth it becomes more evident that cycles in their various forms can be found in every area of human endeavor. Computers and new technology are now able to achieve results that early manual operations could not produce or foresee. The case for cycles has been made!
Restoring the FSC to Dewey’s Restoring Dewey’s original vision is not going going to be an easy task. It will take hard work, money, and dedication. We hope to still be advancing Dewey’s vision when the FSC celebrates celebrate s its 100th anniversary in 2041. We will have more to say in the near future about next steps for the new FSC but in the meantime, I would like to give a report on the current state of aairs of the FSC and the steps the board has taken to secure its future. It grieves me to report that the condition of the FSC upon the death of David was very dire and I suspect that many recent members of the FSC who worked with David may nd the next section of this letter disconcerting. disconcerting. While David was very passionate and dedicated and made many contributions to the FSC, his organizational skills were were lacking. David was running running the FSC as a sole-proprietorship sole-proprietorship out of of his own personal PayPal account. There were few records at David’s death and no money. money. As of David’s death, the FSC was essentially bankrupt. There was literally no money in the bank to continue operations, so all operations and services were suspended. Sadly, all services that were being fullled by the FSC under David are no longer able to be fullled. David had also taken several questionable questionable legal steps such as attempting to transfer the Intellectual Property of the Foundation into his name personally in exchange for shares in a new
Intellectual Property of the Foundation into his name personally in exchange for shares in a new Illinois Illinoi s L3C company. company. Shares in the Illinois L3C were never issued to the FSC and the attempted transfer of the IP of the FSC was invalid at best and fraudulent at worst.
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David sold shares shares in the Illinois L3C via a crowdfunding crowdfunding initiative. That L3C is no longer in existence for failure failure to le and it did not own any any assets. It is also bankrupt. That’s the bad news, and I recognize that it may be a hard pill to swallow for those who believed that the FSC was in a better position and possibly poised for transformativ transformative e success. That simply was not the case.
Because of the diculty of knowing what liabilities David may have incurred under the banner of the FSC, the board has taken the signicant step of dissolving the original Connecticut nonstock corporation and establishing a new Delaware non-stock corporation. The assets of the Connecticut entity have been transferred to the new Delaware entity. The Board has been closely and well advised in these eorts by the new legal counsel of the new FSC, Adam Zylstra of Hoogendoorn & Talbot LLP in Chicago. Taking these steps will allow us to move forward as expeditiously as possible, to llimit imit liability and to immediately start the process of restoring the tax deductible 501(c)(3) status of the Foundation. In fact, I can tell you that as of today, donations made to the FSC are once again tax-deductible in the United States! That’s all the bad news and the legal necessities. necessiti es. Now I’m excited to share with you some of the positive highlights of our work over these past couple of months. One of the things that I am personally most excited about is that we have secured all of the physical assets assets of the FSC that David had had in storage in Palm Palm Springs. Here is a picture of of what we found in the Palm Springs storage unit when we rst arrived.
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It wasn’t exactly the ideal conditions that we had hoped to nd for the FSC’s valuable archives. After nearly two weeks of tireless work by Nathaniel Hansen, I am very pleased to report that these archives are in much better conditions today. Take a look:
In addition, I am thrilled to report that we have begun to expand the Board of Directors of the FSC by bringing on several luminaries in the world of cycles – Jake Bernstein, Larry Williams and Andrew Pancholi – and leading technical analyst Tom DeMark. Jake, Larry, Andy and Tom are exactly the kind of important members of the cycles community who had become estranged from the FSC. We are excited and proud to welcome them back and we look forward to announcing more new noteworthy Board members soon. We want to continue to expand the Board as well. We welcome all recommendations – both nancial and non-nancial. For those in the cycles community that may not know me well, I’d like to share a little bit about myself and a few thoughts on why it is I nd myself in this unexpected position of shepherding the FSC into its next cycle. My undergraduate training is as a mathematician mathematici an at U.C. Berkeley. I then went on to get my
PhD in the interdisciplinar interdis ciplinary y eld of systems science under the late professor G George eorge Klir. Klir. My dissertation was on new mathematical methods for helping scientists and researchers be more honest about and aware of the uncertainties in their own models and forecasts.
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For the past 15 years I’ve been building software tools and developing algorithms to help investors build more protable and lower risk portfolios. About 10 years ago, David asked me to look into the software publish published ed by the FSC and to look into the original papers published by Dewey, Shirk, Vaux and others which described the cycle detection algorithms being used by the FSC. My team and I spent nearly two years on this project, pro bono, which resulted in new and improved algorithms and new editions of the software published by the FSC. Upon David’s death, I was asked by the Board to assume the role of interim Chairman and CEO. In that capacity I spent my my own personal personal funds (over $100,000 $100,000 to date) to lay David David to rest, gather assets from Bucharest and Palm Springs, Springs, clean up the legal status of the FSC and establish basic operations operations sucient to give the FSC the opportunity to come back to life. As I stated earlier, earlier, I am not interested in becoming a new dominant personality for the FSC. I want the FSC to shine shine with its own light. But I do believe that there there are some important important reasons that I will make a good Chairman for the FSC at this time in its history. •
• • • •
I care deeply about the history of the FSC and long to see it restored to respectability and recognition and I believe that it is an important time in history for a revitalized FSC to clarify and broadcast its message. I will not run the FSC as a sole-proprietorship sole-proprietorship.. I will work to build a robust Boar Board d of Directors that can collectively support the future of the FSC. I use time-cycles actively in my own work and have continued to evolve my own computer programs and algorithms in the eld. My experience experience in the interdisciplinary eld of systems systems science science makes makes me uniquely positioned positioned to help develop a truly interdisciplinary FSC. My background in enterprise grade nancial software for retail investors will serve the FSC’s own aspirations for developing and publishing its own data, algorithms and software.
In closing, I am proud of the work we have done to give the FSC this opportunity to once again be recognized recognized as the transformational transformational institution that that it truly is. The Board and I have have brought it this far, but we need your help to continue marching forward. I recognize that many of us have given repeatedly to the FSC over the years and not always received the value that we expected in return. This is, in fact, the very reason that the old FSC was bankrupt. That will not be the case with the new FSC. Your new Board is committed to delivering value to the cycles community and doing so with clarity, transparency and civility.
Here are some of the steps that your new Board is already taking to make good on that promise:
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• • • • • • •
Securing and protecting FSC digital and physical assets. Taking legal steps to limit liabilities and preserve assets. Applying for 501(c)(3) status for the new FSC so that donations will be tax deductible. Developing a business plan for the new FSC. Recruiting Recruitin g new Directors to the Board from multiple disciplines. Removing marketing heavy materials (and extraneous websites) from the FSC web presence. Organizing and digitizing FSC archives and making them available online to members. members.
•
Arranging free webinars for members from new Board members and cycles luminaries Jake Bernstein and Larry Williams. Preparing a big online webinar in 1Q 2019 to bring together the work of many leading cycles theorists.
•
We are doing all this currently without any operating funds or employees. Of course, we want to move as fast as possible, but we believe that building a Foundation the right way is more important than doing it quickly. In addition to these recent improvements we are currently working hard on several fronts including: As the new FSC nds its footing and its new supports, here are some of the projects we would like to see initiated. • • • • • • • •
Re-publishing of a quarterly online version of Cycles magazine. Re-publishing Securing of the cycles.com domain as the new online home of the FSC. Funding of a full-time full-ti me operations ocer to manage the day to day aairs of the FSC and the needs of members. Building an online data warehouse and cloud-based version of the core cycles-detection algorithms. Creating a physical location for scholars of cycles and cycles enthusiasts to browse FSC archives and publications Fomenting the growth of Cycles chapters globally, wherein cycles enthusiasts and scholars may interact Aliating the FSC with an academic institution institution that wants to support support cycles related research; research; and, of course, Raising a new endowment and operating funds.
We welcome all the help we can get in these important areas! One last point … It is important to note that the new FSC is exclusively focused at this time on our not-for-prot not-for-prot scientic research and educational mission. We envision a time in the future where the FSC will create a wholly-owned for-prot subsidiary to commercialize FSC technology
much like universities do
but we are not yet there today.
For now, we will not be selling software or conducting paid workshops.
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Of course, supporting and funding the FSC has always been a challenge. The challenge goes all the way back to the very rst days of the FSC back in 1941. It is no dierent today. today. Great opportunities lie in front of us and our ambitions for the FSC are as expansive as ever, but we can’t do it without you. you. If you are inspired by by this new opportunity opportunity to rebuild the FSC, your your Board sincerely hopes that you will contact the FSC and see how you can help.
The easiest way to let us know that you want to help is to simply reply to this email. You are also welcome to directly contact any any of the current Directors Directors or Ocers. Ocers. A list of all current Directors and Ocers and contact email addresses is below. Please let us hear from you! Thank you again for taking the time to read this letter. letter. After such a tumultuous transition and a long period of silence, I felt that it was proper and necessary to explain in detail the recent events and the new direction. With high hopes for a bright future for the FSC, Richard. Richard M. Smith, PhD Chairman and CEO, Foundation for the Study of Cycles P.S. The new FSC will not be concerned with any past disagreements between members of the cycles community. community. We welcome all members of the community that wish to constructively constructive ly contribute to the benet of the FSC going forward. P.P.S. Keep an eye out for exciting announcements about FREE online cycles workshops from Jake Bernstein, Larry Williams and others. Both myself and The Market Timing Report (www.markettimingreport.com) will be supporting The Foundation For The Study Of Cycles. Please do sign up at www. foundationforthestudyofcycles.org so that we can keep you informed of developments. You will also be able to access much detailed research on cycles from markets. This is a true return to unearthing the key cycles that drive market and other events.
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THE COSMIC SETUP: MODERN DAY ASTROLOGY LOOKS AT 2019 Revised from Forecast 2019 Book Raymond Merriman ©
Setup: 1. The way in which something is organized, planned, or arranged. 2. A scheme, or a trick, intended to incriminate or deceive someone. - Dictionary, google.com. “What you are getting getting is a stimulus at the very wrong wrong moment. The economy economy is already at full employment. (The stimulus) is going to hit the economy in a big way this year and next year, and then in 2020 Wile E. Coyote is going to go o the cli ,” ,” – Ben Bernanke at a policy
discussion at the American Enterprise Institute, written by Craig Torres, “Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a Wile E. Coyote Moment in 2020,” Bloomberg News, June 7, 2018.
It’s the cosmic set up of a decade. And it may take a modern-day Financial and/or Mundane Astrologer to gure out what it means before it unfolds. Yet, almost anyone with a working knowledge of astrology is aware that the alignment of planets approaching in 2020 is quite a unique and powerful set up: a stellium of Jupiter, Saturn, and Pluto in late Capricorn through 0° Aquarius. It is symbolic of a huge shift for humankind. And 2019 is the setup for this shift. But what kind of setup is it? According to the Google dictionary, a “setup” can have multiple meanings, and take several forms. There is the physical setup, the way in which something is organized, or arranged. The arrangement arrangem ent of the planets in the solar system, in relationship to planet earth, exemplies this type of setup. We see this in the chart of the year 2020. The chart, or horoscope, which is a representation of the heavens, is in a sense, a physical, astronomical, or cosmological arrangement, or setup. It reects the manner in which the planets are “set up” in the chart of the times. That is, the cosmic setup of 2019 is leading humanity into the Jupiter, Saturn, and Pluto stellium that will take place when all three will move through the sign of Capricorn in 2020. In other words, the year 2020 will be another “Capricorn Climax,” along the lines of the last one which lasted ve years, from 1988 through 1993. But to understand and prepare adequately for the 2020 version of a “Capricorn Climax,” we need to rst of all understand the cosmic setup leading into it from 2019. There is another kind of “setup” dened in Google’s dictionary. This one is dened as, “ A
scheme, or a trick, intended i ntended to incriminate or deceive someone.” This This could be pertinent to understanding the times we are living in as well, for just prior to the Jupiter, Saturn, and Pluto moving together through Capricorn, December 2019 through December 2020, one of these
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planets – Jupiter – will form a three-passage square aspec aspectt to a fourth outer planet – Neptune – in 2019. This particular aspect occurs every every 13-14 years. But this one is not just an ordinary 13-14 year planetary pair cycle between these two planets. This particular square is unusual because both planets will be in their ruling signs. That is, Jupiter will be in its home sign of Sagittarius, while Neptune will be in its home sign of Pisces. On top of that, Jupiter also co-rules Pisces. Two outer planets, each in the sign that they rule (plus co-rule), and in a hard, waning square (270° distance from one another), aspect. That doesn’t happen all that often. In fact, it only happens about every 166-167 years. The last time it occurred was in late 1852. Let’s briey look at what happened in 1852, the last time these two planets were in their respective ruling signs and square to one another, and see if we can identify some similarities to today’s stock market.
This chart comes from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles ((https://timing https://timingandtrading.com/ andtrading.com/). ). As one can see, 1852 was 10 years after the end of a major depression in both the economy and the stock market. After achieving an all-time high in 1835, President Andrew Jackson set out to eliminate the central bank of the United States. The reaction was catastrophic for stock prices, which began an 8-year meltdown in which the indices lost approximately 80% of their value by the time they bottomed in 1842. However, stock prices then rallied smartly into an 18-year cycle crest in 1852 (the highest price between the two troughs that dened the 18-year cycle from 1842-1857). Note that 18-year cycles have an orb of 3 years, so the time band extends from 15 to 21 years. This one, 1842-1857, lasted 15 years, with the crest unfolding in the 10th year – and almost the 11th year – in i n December 1852. Once the crest was achieved, the stock market then declined approximately 60% into the secondary low (and 18-year cycle trough) in 1857, as shown in the closeup in the gure below.
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The actual date of the 1852 waning square aspect between Jupiter and Neptune occurred on December 18, 1852. The actual crest of the stock market took place in a triple top, distributionchart pattern, between October 1852 and January 1853.
The interesting correspondence correspondence to the Jupiter in Sagittarius, square Neptune in Pisces in 2019 is that there was also a Great Recession Recession and stock market low approximately 10 years. That is, there was also a deep nancial crisis in 2008, and stocks indices in the USA bottomed in March 2009, ten years before the 2019 aspect of Jupiter square Neptune in their ruling signs. As of this writing, the all-time high in the USA stock market occurred on October 3, 2018, just three months before the rst of three passages of this aspect in 2019. The important question for now is whether that high will hold, or if there will be a higher high forming in 2019? And, in either case, will a similar fate as witnessed from 1852 to 1857 follow this high related to Jupiter square Neptune, with each in its own ruling sign? In other words, will the pattern of 1842-1857 be similar to a stock pattern unfolding from 2008-2023, in which a high during this time frame will be followed by a very steep 3-6 year decline and a secondary low to the low of March 2009? It is possible. A crest forming nearby to the Jupiter/Neptune square in 2019 (or even that of October 2018) will be the rst part of that set up. As indicated so far, the year 2019 will highlight one major aspect formation between the outer planets. That major aspect will be the three-passage series of Jupiter in its ruling sign of Sagittarius, forming a waning square aspect (270° (270° separation) to Neptune, in its ruling sign of Pisces. Due to an astronomic factor known as retrogradation, this aspect will unfold in a three-passage three-passag e series. The rst has already occurred on January 13, and will be followed by two more passages on June 16, and September 21, 2019. The entire period is known as the central time band for this aspect. In December 1852, there was only one passage. In either case, the eective orb of inuence can be up to four months either side of a single passage, or
the beginning and end in the central time band of a multiple passage. Thus, the entire period from September 2018 through January 2020 is highlighted as a possible Jupiter/Neptune square crest. Therefore, the year 2019 is the astrological setup. It is a setup for the very powerful
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collective transformation transformation that is likely to follow in 2020-2022, and beyond. There is another geocosmic factor to consider, which dovetails with this outlook. This is the transit of Jupiter through its own ruling sign of Sagittarius, which lasts from November 8, 2018 through December 2, 2019. This planet/sign combination occurs approximately every 12 years. In fact, every 12 years Jupiter makes a complete orbit around the Sun, and spends about one year in each sign of the zodiac. The year it transits through Sagittarius has a historical correspondence to rallies and the completion of long-term cycle crests in stock indices. For instance, the last time Jupiter was in Sagittarius was 2007. You may remember the all-time high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, preceding the greatest stock market decline since the Great Depression, was completed on October 11, 2007. Jupiter was right in the middle of Sagittarius at that time. After that high, the stock market began a huge sell o that didn’t end until March 6-9, 2009, at which time Jupiter had moved through Capricorn and into the middle of Aquarius. The historical relationship between Jupiter-in-Sagittarius Jupiter-in-Sagittarius and the U.S. stock market can be seen in the ltered graph enclosed here covering over 11 Jupiter cycles since 1885. This ltered graph comes from the programming of Sergey Tarassov and Alphee Lavoie at www.timingsolutions. com and https://www.alphee.com. com and https://www.alphee.com . In this graph, you will note that the transit of Jupiter in Leo corresponds to a low, and from there, stock prices generally go higher into the period when Jupiter is in Sagittarius, four years later. Jupiter was in Leo when the DJIA made its 4- and 6.5year cycle troughs in August 2015 (the two cycles converged then). According to this graph, another cyclical crest is due while Jupiter is in Sagittarius (November 2018-December 2018-Decem ber 2019), and usually before the end of that period. The high to date has been in October 2018, one month before Jupiter entered its 13-month trek through Sagittarius. That may be close enough to correlate with the crest. However, it also suggests another crest could yet happen during this period, prior to December 2019. It may be a re-test of the October 2018 high (i.e. double top) or it may be even higher. However, note what this correlation suggests afterwards. Namely, that stock prices tend to fall for 1-3 years – and probably fall hard – until Jupiter is in Aquarius or Pisces, which will equate to 2021-2022. This is important because in 2021, another signicant long-term geocosmic signature unfolds that also has a high correspondence to “shocks” to the nancial system: Saturn square Uranus. This will be a subject for a future article.
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Filtered wave of Jupiter transiting through the 12 signs, per software programs programs of Sergey Tarassov and Alphee Lavoie at www.timingsolutions.com and www.timingsolutions.com and https://www. alphee.com.. alphee.com Raymond A. Merriman is the President of The Merriman Market Analyst, Inc. and founder of the Merriman Market Timing Academy. He is a Commodities Trading Advisor (CTA), nancial market analyst, and editor of the MMA Cycles Report, a monthly market advisory newsletter that specializes in stocks indices, interest rates, currencies, precious metals, crude oil and soybeans since 1982. He also writes a daily and weekly report for more active traders. Merriman is the author of several books on Financial Market Timing, including the series on The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volumes 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 (1997-2017); The Gold Book: Geocosmic Correlations to Gold Gold Price Cycles (1982); (1982); The Sun, Moon, Moon, and Silver Market (2006); (2006); Solar/ Lunar Correlations to Gold Price Reversals: Secrets of a Gold Trader (2015); and the annual Forecast Book (since 1976) ,, which outlines his projections a year ahead of time for nancial markets, the world economy, and political trends. In early 2013, Merriman was awarded the Gold Star by Market Timing Digest of Amsterdam, Netherlands as the “Best Market Timer of 2013.” He was the only contestant (of twelve who were followed) to successfully successfully identify all 15 major turning points in the U.S. stock market by their criteria. The second place nisher successfully successfully identied 12. In 2014, Merriman received the Gold Star award again as “Best Market Timer of the Year” from Market Timing Digest, this
time correctly identifying 20 of 21 reversal dates in the U.S. stock market well ahead of time. ti me. Merriman currently resides in Cave Creek, Arizona He can be reached at
[email protected] [email protected],, or via the MMA website at https://mmacycles.com. https://mmacycles.com.
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Amazon Kindle Books
Gann Masters Course by Larry Jacobs $9.95 As you know, W.D. Gann was a legendary trader. Some say he amassed a fortune in the the markets. He wrote several important books on trading as well as a commodity trading course and a stock market trading course. He charged $3000 to $5000 for the trading courses which included 6 months of personal instruction by phone. The Gann Masters T Trading rading Course to help traders become successful.
$32.95 A Unique Approach to Forecasting by Ivan Sargent $32.95 This book is possibly one of most advanced books in technical analysis you will read regarding price and time reversals. Knowing the Price and time of a stocks reversal point is undeniably an important element for to successful trading. Unlike most trading books which use indicators, oscillators, and basic geometry to forecast the markets outcome; this technique uses a series of lines which when accurately placed can deliver reversal points with amazing accuracy. accuracy. Trend lines, retracements lines, channels, fan lines, li nes, pivot points etc, all inspect a stock chart from the outside, which is more or less the obvious point of view.
Patterns and Ellipses by Larry Jacobs $9.99 This book concerns itself with a highly technical subject, the subject of technical analysis of the nancial market. This book specically deals with ellipses and pattern formations used for trading the markets. It also covers many other technical analysis tools that can be used eectively by the trader. trader.
Gann’s Master Charts Unveiled by Larry Jacobs $9.99 We know that Gann used the Pythagorean Square because he was found carrying it with him into the trading pit all the time. This square was hidden in the palm of his hand. How did he use this square? Why did he not discuss the use of this square in his courses? There is only one page covering the Square of Nine in all of his books and courses. Was this square his most valuable tool? These and all the other squares Gann used will be discussed in detail in this book with many illustns and examples to prove how they work.
Gann Trade Real Time by Larry Jacobs $9.99 When you opened this book you took the one step that will help you learn how to be successful at the most desirable, but hardest profession in the world. That
profession is real time trading. This book is not going to give you an instant secret to day trading. It is going to give you the basics so that you might start the path to understanding how the markets work both short term and long term. You need to know and fully understand the markets and develop successful trading
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strategies to become successful at this endeavor. endeavor.
Best Trading Strategies: Master Trading the Futures, Stocks, ETFs, Forex and Option Markets $3.99 This is one of the most fascinating books that was ever written about trading because it is written by over thirty expert traders. These traders have many years of experience and they have learned how to turn technical analysis into prots in the markets. This is extremely dicult to do and if you have ever tried to trade the markets with technical analysis you would know what I mean. These writers have some of the best trading strategies they use and have the conviction and the discipline to act assertively and pull the buy or sell trigger regardless of pressures they have against them. They have presented these strategies at the Traders World Online Expo #14 in video presentations and in this book. What sets these traders apart from other traders? Many think that beating the markets has something to do with discovering and using some secret formula. The traders in tthis his book have the right attitude and many employ a combination of fundamental analysis, technical analysis principles and formulas in their best trading strategies. Trading is one of the best ways to make a lot of money in the world if one does it right. One needs to nd successful trading strategies and implement them in their own trading method. The purpose of this book is to present to you the best trading strategies of these traders so that you might be able to select those that t you best and then implement them into your own trading. I wish to express my appreciation to all the writers in this book who made the book possible. They have spent many hours of their time and hard work in writing their section of the book and the putting together their video presentation for the online expo.
Finding Your Trading Method $3.99 Finding your trading method is the main problem you need to solve if you want to become a successful trader. You may be asking yourself, can I nd my own trading method that will reect my own personality toward trading? For example, do you have the patience to sit in front of a computer and trade all day? Do you prefer to swing trade from 3-5 days or do you like to hold positions for weeks and even months? Every trader is dierent. You need to nd your own trading method. Finding out your trading method is extremely important to produce a protable benchmark
that can be replicated in your live account. Perhaps the best way to nd a successful trading method is to listen to many expert traders to understand what they have done to be successful. The best way to do that is to listen to the Traders Traders World Online Expos presentations. This book duplicates what these experts have said in their presentations,
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which explains what they have done to nd their own trading method. If you have a trading method that gives you a predictable prot, then that type of objectivity contributes to your trading edge. The problem with most traders is that being inconsistent will never allow them to have an edge. After you nd your trading method that you feel comfortable with, you must have the following: An overall plan to: 1) Set your rule set and plan and then stick with it in all of your trading. 2) To give you a trading plan for every day. The trade plan then should: 1) Have an exact entry price 2) Have a stop price 3) Have a way to add positions 4) Tell you where to take prots 5) Have a way to protect your prots By reviewing all the methods given in this book by the expert traders, it will give, you the preliminary steps that you need to nd your footing in nding your own trading method. Reading this book and by seeing the actual recorded presentations on the Traders Traders World Online Expo site can act as a reference tool for selecting your method of trading, investment strategies and tactics. It took many of these expert traders in this book 15 – 30 years to nally come up and nd the answers to nd their trading method to make consistent prot. Finding your trading t rading method could be then much easier when you read this book and incorporate the techniques that best t your personality and style from these traders. This book will enable you to that fastest way to do that. So if you want help to nd your own trading method to be successful in the markets then buy and read this book.
Learn the Secrets of Successful Trading $3.99 Learn specic trading strategies to improve your trading, learn trading ideas and tactics to t o be more protable, better optimize your trading system, nd the fatal aws in your trading, understand and use Elliott Wave Wa ve to strengthen your trading, position using correct sizing to ttrade rade more
protable, understand Mercury cycles in trading the S&P, S&P, get consistently protable trade setups, reduce risk and increase prots using volume, detect and trade the hidden market cycles, short term trading by taking the money and running, develop your mind for trading, overcoming Fear in
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Trading, trade with the smart money following volume, understand and use the Ultimate Oscillator,, use high power trading with geometry, get better entries, understand the three Oscillator legs to trading, use technical analysis with NinjaTrader NinjaTrader 7, use a breakout system with cycles for greater returns with less l ess risk, use TurnSignal for better entries and exits, trade with an edge, use options protably, learn to trade online, map supply and demand on charts, quantify and execute portfolio rotation for auto trading. Written by Many Expert Traders The book was written by a large group of 35 expert traders, with high qualications, most of who trade professionally and/or oer trading services and expensive courses to their clients. Some of them charge thousands of dollars per day for personal trading! These expert traders give generally 45-minute presentations covering the same topics given in this book at the Traders World Online Expo #12. By combining their talents in this book, they introduce a new dimension to nding a protable trading edge in the market. You can use ideas and techniques of this group of experts to leverage your ability to nd an edge to successfully trade. Using a group of experts in this manner to insure your trading success is unprecedented. You’ll Yo u’ll never nd a book like l ike this anywhere! This unique trading book will help you uncover the underlying reasons for your lack of consistency in trading and will help you overcome poor habits that cost you money in trading. It will help you to expose the myths of the market one by one teaching you the right ri ght way to trade and to understand the realities of risk and to be comfortable with trading with market. The book is priceless! Parallels to the Traders World Online Expo 12
Trade the Markets with and Edge $3.99 This is an important book discussing the use of dierent strategies methods about trading. It was written by over 30 expert traders. The book was designed to help you develop your own trading edge in the markets to put you above others who don’t have an edge and just trade by the seat of their pants. 90% of traders actually lose in the markets and the main reason is simply that they don’t have an edge. All of the writers in this book are very experienced and knowledgeable of dierent ways. Each of them has their own expertise in trading the markets. What sets these traders apart from other traders? Many think that beating the t he markets has something to do with discovering and
using some secret formula. The traders in this book have the right attitude and many employ a combination of fundamental analysis, technical analysis principles and formulas in their best trading strategies. This gives
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them a trading edge over other traders. If you want to be successful at trading, you too must have your edge. One needs to nd successful trading strategies and implement them in their own trading method. The purpose of this book is to present to you the best trading strategies of these traders so that you might be able to select those that t you best and then implement them into your own trading style. I wish to express my appreciation to all the writers in this book who made the book possible. They have spent many hours of their time and hard work in writing their section of the book and the putting together their video presentation for the online expo.
Guide to Successful Online Trading - Secrets from the Pros Pros $3.99 This is one of the nest trading books you’ll ever see about trading. The reason is that it comes from a group of expert pro traders with multiple years of experience.
Trading as you know is extremely dicult. It is estimated that 90% of traders lose money in the markets. To help you overcome this statistic, tthe he pro traders in this book give you their ideas on trading with some of the best trading methods ever developed through their long time experience. By reading about these trading methods and implementing them in the markets you will then have a chance to then join the ranks of the 10% of the successful traders. The traders in this book have through experience the right attitude and employ a combination of technical analysis principles and strategies to be successful. You can develop these also. Trading is one of the best ways to make money. Apply the trading methods in this book and treat it as a business. The purpose of this book is to help you be successful in trading. From this book you will get all the strategies, Indicators and trading methods that you need to make big prots in the markets. This book gives you: 1) Audio/Visual Links to presentations from pro traders 2) The best strategies that the professional traders are using now 3) The broad perspective you need in today’s dicult markets 4) The Exact tools that you need to make protable trading decisions 5) The nest trading education
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CRAIG TRADING: Craig Haugaard made 300.9% in his World Cup Trading Championships® Account in 2014 - Want to Know How? $3.99 How? $3.99 This book contains an interview that I made with Craig Haugaard, third-place nisher in the 2014 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading® with a 300.9% net prot. I asked him many questions on exactly how he did it. In the rest of the book I explain to you how to use the indicators that Craig used to make his 300.9% return. Here are the indicators that he used: •
Seasonality
•
MACD
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Stochastics
•
Moving Averages
•
Trailing Stops
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Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions
All of the charts in this book are produced using my favorite charting software Market-Analyst®. I have also arranged for you to get a FREE trial so that you might have the chance to actually act ually work with these indicators with a real charting platform. You will also be able to view the video presentations that I personally created so you can see how these indicators can be setup and followed with clear and concise step-by-step instructions. After you understand understand how these indicators work, I would then recommend recommend that you go to t o WorldCupAdvisor.com WorldCupAdvisor.com and consider following Craig Haugaard’s real-time trades. This one-of-a-kind book teaches you how to identify the direction of the markets and trade the markets by using popular trading indicators. This is done by concise instructions backed by learning videos, hands on practice with real trading software and by following real-time trades of a master trader.
Mastering Your Trading: Learn from Expert Trading Advisors “Mastering Your Trading” is the perfect source for learning various methods of trading the market from expert advisers. $3.99 This book focuses on various methods of trading developed by many top trading advisors. There are 17 well written articles and it i t is packed by insight that can benet the beginning to the expert trader. This is a must read. The trading methods and strategies presented in this book can help to succeed
in today’s volatile market environment. From preparing your psychology to the demands of timing the market and managing the risk, this book tells it all. The book provides you the tools that are necessary for making the right trades and when to get in and out of the market. The book covers:
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•
Price and Volume the only True Indicators
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Uncovering Market Secrets
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How to handle capital exposure
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Secrets of Safe Protable Day Trading
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Using Social Media Sentiment Cycles
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How to Dramatically Improve Your Your Trading Psychology
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How to Handle Trading Losses
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Using a Market Scanner to Save Time
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How to Stop Guessing
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How to Get the Right Trading Computer
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Simple and Practical Trading Tips
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And much more…
This book is an enhanced Edition which means that the articles are backed with audio visual presentation links. Most of the presentations are in HD quality and are put together by the writers of the articles in the book and really help the learning process. Successful trading is based on knowledge and having the right psychology to trade the markets. This book will lift your trading to a much higher level and will save you an enormous amount to time.
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Trading with Success $4.99 This book contains an interview in Chapter 1 with Rob Mitchell, who nished in 2nd place in the 2014 World Cup Championship® of CME E-mini Trading Trading with a 57% net prot. Rob Mitchell is the president of Axiom Research & Trading, Inc. and has been a trading system developer for over 20 years and has developed a number of commercially successful trading systems. He has at various times been the largest eMini S&P trader in the world. Rob has also acted as a Commodity Trading Adviser, Adviser, has traded for hedge fund funds s and has won the Robbins World Cup eMini trading championship in the past. Rob is a trading teacher and mentor and is the founder and head trader of Oil Trading Room which is devoted to providing advanced educational resources to traders at all levels. In the rest of the book I will explain to you some of the trading ideas of Rob that he uses in both his Oil Trading Room and in his World Cup Advisor Account. You can then act actually ually see and understand how some of his ideas work. I am not going to tell you exactly how Rob used the ideas to make his return of 57% on a $10,000 investment. That information is not public and belongs only to Rob. I will tell you some of the trading ideas he uses and help you understand how these ideas work. I would then recommend that you go to World Cup Advisor and consider following Rob’s trades. You Yo u will be able to automatically mirror Rob’s trades in your own brokerage account with World Cup Leader-Follower AutoTrade™ AutoTrade™ service. You will also be able to see what his trades look like on your own charts and better understand why he made the trades.
Takumaru Forex Trading $4.99 This book contains an interview in Chapter 1 with Takumaru Takumaru Sakakibara, who nished in 2nd place in the 2014 World Cup Championship of Forex Trading® with a 122.6% net prot. “Takumaru’s largest drawdown (cumulative peak-to-valley peak-to-valley percentage decline in month-end net equity during the life of the t he account) was -21.5% from 6-30-15 to 10-31-15.” “Please remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.”
Please remember that Forex trading involves substantial risk r isk of loss, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.” In the rest of the book I will explain to you some of the trading ideas Takumaru said he used
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in the championship. You can then actually see and understand how his ideas work. I am not going to tell you exactly how Takumaru Takumaru used the ideas to make his return of 122.6% on a $10,000 investment. That information is not public and belongs only to Takumaru. Takumaru. I will tell you which indicators he used and help you understand how these indicators work.
Michael Trading: Learn about some of the trading tools he used $4.99 Michael Cook, was the rst-place nisher in the 2014 WORLD CUP Championship of Futures Trading® with a 366% net prot. In this book there is a detailed interview with Michael with questions and answers of exactly what he used to win the championship. In this book I will explain to you the indicators that he said he used in the interview. You You can then actually see and understand how they work. Here are some the indicators and methods that he said he used: 1) Moving Averages 2) Seasonality 3) Cycles 4) Seasonality 5) Price Patterns 6) William’s %R 7) Long with Stops 8) Commitment of Traders Report You You will also be able to download a video presentation that I personally created so you can see how these indicators can be setup and followed in a step-by-step manner. manner. After you understand how these indicators work, I would then recommend that you go to WorldCupAdvisor.com WorldCupAdvisor.com and consider following Michael Cook’s trades.
