Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected]
International Relations 250 Political Risk Analysis Syllabus Spring 2009 Course Description Imagine yourself as the chief executive of a major corporation seeking to expand your business overseas. As you look abroad, you see large markets markets and a world full of opportunity for your company. But you also observe a rapidly changing and sometimes sometimes threatening global business environment characterized by political and economic risk and uncertainty. You face foreign publics who are often angry, hostile, and capricious in their tastes; constantly shifting political winds, aggressive and unpredictable regulators, potentially unreliable business partners, economic crises and instability, in addition to the risks of terrorism and political violence. How will you cope with these problems? What tools and methodologies will you employ to forecast these risks? risks? What actions will you take to to manage and mitigate the dangers you face? This course will address political risk risk forecasting and management methodologies and techniques. The emphasis on the course is practical and applied. Students will have the opportunity to apply a pply what they learn in real-world case problems and assignments. The political risk risk forecasting, research, and management methods covered will will include Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Sovereign Ratings Systems, the Delphi Method, The Prince Model, the BERI Model, The Economist Model, The PRS Model, the IES Energy Model, Political Risk Insurance, Integrated Risk Management, and Enterprise-Wide Risk Management. Political Risk Analysis historically involved the assessment of the environment for doing business abroad and for the execution of international transactions, particularly foreign direct investment and currency management and arbitrage. More recently it has come to embrace problems of insurance and reinsurance, protection of personnel, country risk, and opportunity assessments, scenario building and gaming for strategic planning, and the challenges of compiling and interpreting intelligence intelligence data for government and business. business. It addresses all the “hot button” issues in international relations today: crisis management (from Cuban Missile Crisis to the 9/11 terrorist attacks); the increasing centrality of political-economy and appropriate methods for integrating political and ec onomic factors in the study of IR (from the pricing of oil…to the risk of doing business in China…to hedging on investments in Latin America…to anticipating swings in currency rates); globalization issues in all their multidimensional complexity; and multinational enterprises and the challenges of doing business overseas.
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] War, revolution, terrorism, different forms and changes in government are highly visible examples of the sources of political risks that confront business, organizations and governments every day. This course aims to develop your political risk analysis skills in several ways by bridging theory and academic practice through the use of case-studies, simulation, and exercises drawn from the real world. The course also features prominent guest speakers.
NOTE: Sequence of classes, course schedules, and assignments may be modified as required by special projects, guest lecturers and outside research or field trips.
Readings: Most readings will be available either in Blackboard or by a hyperlink embedded in the syllabus. I would like you to purchase Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Wiley Press, 1996 by Peter L. Bernstein. It is available (new and used copies) at Amazon starting at $7.98: http://www.amazon.com/Against-Gods-Remarkable-StoryRisk/dp/0471295639/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1231961481&sr=1-1
Session 1: Wednesday, January 14
1.1
Introduction to Course • • • •
Dr. Plantan Introductions Course Content Overview – Class Discussion: Why taking course? Interest? Hope to gain? Student requirements: Final Project Topics, Course Policies & Grading
Readings: Lecture Outline: Introductory comments on Risk in Asia Examples of Political Risk in the News Assignment: Assignment 1-- Course Preferences and Expectations (see electronic version in Blackboard) Assigment 1.2: Bring news clipping that illustrates an issue or case of political risk In-Class Exercise: Team Building [Handout]
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] No Class Monday, January 19, Martin Luther King Day Session 2: Wednesday, January 21
2.1 Review: Course Issues Discussion (Lecture Outlines, Introduce Examples of Final Projects, Instructional Methods) News Article summaries and sharing Student Introduction Activity—beginning Team building exercise
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2.2 Definitions &Concepts • • • • • •
Political Risk: Concept & Definition Political Risk Definitions Paraphrase Activity What is Political Risk? Lead-in Class Discussion on Q. The World of Risk & Current Examples Political Risk Definitions Activity Review & Discussion
Reading: Begin to read Against the Gods. “Terrorism worries raise oil tanker security on the Delaware River,” Jennifer Lin, Knight Ridder Newspapers, in Philadelphia Inquirer, June 1, 2003 Yukiko Omura, FDI Magazine, “Take Cover to Reduce Risk,” January 5, 2005 • •
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2.3 Dimensions of Risk •
11 Dimensions of Political Risk & Examples
Lecture Outline and Notes
Readings:
Session 3: Monday, January 26
4.1 Review • • •
Political Risk Definitions Activity Review 11 Dimensions of Political Risk Lecture Review (#1-5) 11 Dimensions of Political Risk Lecture, Note-Taking Activity and Discussion (#6-11)
4.2
Value, Risk & Probability I Introduction & Definitions Fundamental Principles of Risk Management Readings: • •
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Taleb and Pilpel, LSE, “Epistemology and Risk Management”
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Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] “BERI” in The Handbook of Country Risk Analysis The Economist Model (2 pp.) The GM Model in Jerry Rogers, ed. Global Risk Assessments, Book 3, pp.17277 (6 pp.) The IHS Energy Model in PRS Group, The Handbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis, pp. 367-72 (6 pp.) [HANDOUT] "Political Forecasting - The Prince Model," in Lewellyn D. Howell, Ph.D., TheHandbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis, 2d ed., (East Syracuse, NY: The PRS Group, 1998), pp. 305-9 [5 pp.]
Session 4: Wednesday, January 28
4.1 Overview of Political Risk Models • • •
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BERI model Political Risk Model One-Page Summary Group Activity (Overview of 4 Leading Political Risk Models Jigsaw Exercise) The Economist, IHS, GM, and Prince Models
Begin Final Project Proposal Topic Guidance & Discussion a. Must Specify Organization and Specific Project or Activity b. Commercial Orientation is Customary and Preferable c. Topic Should Not Be a Conventional International Relations, Diplomacy, or Strategic Studies Question or Subject d. Begin With a Risk Inventory e. Begin to Compile a Bibliography f. Final Project Proposal Team Activity – Specify Company, Project, and Primary Risk g. Final Project Proposal Team Activity Discussion
Readings: Final Project Proposal Assignment Guidance and Instructions Overview of 15 Leading Political Risk Models (11 pp.) Lecture: Political Risk Models Table 2a) Review the BERI home page at http://www.beri.com 2b) Review the BERI Business Risk Service at http://www.beri.com/brs-green.html • • • •
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The PRS Model in PRS Group, The Handbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis, pp. 291-320 (30 pp.) PRS Model applied: Case of Bolivia 15 Leading Political Risk Models Internet Links
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] • • •
BERI sample: China BERI sample: Indonesia Control Risks Group Model Sample Report – Turkey
Assignment: Political Risk Model Summaries (Team project) •
Session 5: Monday, February 2
5.1
Review
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Distribute and Discuss Assignment – Political Risk Models One-Page Summary
5.2
Political Risk Models , continued
5.3
Sources & Analytical Methods • • •
Political Risk Case Study Research Resources Political Risk Case Study Research Resources Content Analysis and Event Data
Reading: Political Risk Case Study Research Resources http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG520.pdf ECCH Case Study materials-I ECCH Case Study materials-II Korea-specific Case Studies [book…..You do not need to read the whole book, only the Appendix and Chapter 5. ] Session 6: Wednesday, February 4
6.1
Identifying and Interpreting Political Risk •
Political Risk in the East Asian Context Current Examples and Discussion
Session 7: Monday, February 9
71. Review 7.2. Two Political Risk Analysis Objectives – Forecasting & Preventing Losses
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] Required Readings: Lange, Scott, “Disaster Planning: The Challenge Within,” Risk Management, (May o 1998), pp. 34-37 [3 pp.] Jablonski, Mark, “When in Doubt, Simulate,” Risk Management (November 1998), pp. 44-49 [5 pp.] Paul K Davis, "Uncertainty-Sensitive Planning" http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1576/MR1576.ch5.pdf This article gives an excellent introduction to the problem of forward thinking. “Forecast” definitions. •
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Session 8: Wednesday, February 11
8.1. Characteristics of Forecasting Methodologies
In-class activities; collect and review news reports; group meetings on team selection and project selection Session 9: Monday, Feburary 16
9.1 . Review 9.2. Delphi Survey Forecasting Method . Delphi Survey: North Korea exercise and/or terrorism case North Korean Nuclear and Political Situation Delphi Assignment (:10) The Delphi Technique (:20) North Korea Delphi Questionnaire Group Activity (:20) North Korea Delphi Questionnaire Discussion (:15) Required Readings: Lecture: additional and complementary notes RAND Delphi Study Sample – Tim H. Murphy and Robert Terry, Jr. “Opportunities and Obstacles for Distance Education in Agricultural Education, Ongoing Nuclear Crisis Leads to Rise in South Korean Defense Budget, 9/23/03. Newsome, Bruce, “Mass Casualty Terrorism: First Quarter Forecast” University of Reading Terrorism Forecasting Group, March 17, 2003. • •
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[These assignments are being revised]: North Korea Delphi Questionnaire and Experts List Assignment Feedback •
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] •
Question Response Processing Spreadsheet
Session 10: Wednesday, February 18
10.1 Cases of Sovereign Risk Rating National Income Accounting & Balance of Payments Influence of North Korean Nuclear Situation on South Korean Sovereign Ratings Activity Sovereign Risk Ratings: Moody’s Required Readings: International Economics Basic Concepts Reading – Balance of Payments [4 pp.] Sovereign Ratings Alignment Key - Moody's, S&P, WMRC WMRC Sovereign Ratings Methodology Standard and Poor’s Rating Outlook of Korea in 1997 Ongoing Nuclear Crisis Leads to Rise in South Korean Defense Budget, 9/23/03. North Korea Learning the “S” Word (“sale”) “South Korea’s Outsized Role” Bloomberg News Moody's South Korea Sovereign Rating Press Release Bank One’s International Risk Update: Country Risk Management, February 2003 (section on North Korea) Moody's Kuwait Sovereign Rating Press Release • • • • •
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Research Resources: 1) Moody’s Investors Service Website - www.moodys.com a) Register to obtain a username and password for access to the site. b) From the Moody’s Investors Services Homepage at www.moodys.com select the About Moody’s link button then select the Ratings Definitions button c) Read the following sections under Ratings Definitions: Moody's Credit Ratings Introduction Long-Term Obligation Ratings Medium-Term Note Ratings Short-Term Ratings Issuer Ratings
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] Country Ceilings for Foreign Currency Obligations Country Ceilings for Foreign Currency Bank Deposits Country Guidelines for Local Currency Obligations Other Ratings, Policies and Procedures Watchlist Ratings Methodology Understanding Moody's Corporate Bond Ratings And Rating Process The Bond Rating Process: A Progress Report The Bond Rating Process In A Changing Environment The Evolving Meaning of Moody's Bond Ratings
Session 11: Monday, February 23
11.1 Review 11.2 Enterprise Wide Approach to Risk Management (ERM) o Integrated Strategic Risk Management Plans o Posco ERM Plan – Research Plan Examples Discussion Required Readings: •
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Busman, Evan R. and Paul Van Zuidin, “The Challenge: Adopting an Enterprise-Wide Approach to Risk,” Risk Management, (January 1998), pp. 14-17 [2 pp.] Thornhill, Will and Amy Derksen, “Creating Integrated Risk Plans: A United Approach,” Risk Management (August 1998), pp. 37-40 [3 pp.] “From the Ground Up,” Risk Management, (December 1998), pp. 48-51 [2 pp.] Matheson, David and Jim Matheson, “Get Smart About Big Risks,” Risk Management, (September 1998), pp. 73-76 [3 pp.] Knight, Rory F., and Deborah J. Pretty, “Value at Risk: The Effects of Catastrophe on Share Price,” Risk Management, (May 1998), pp. 39-41 [3 pp.] Enterprise Risk Map Template Enterprise Risk Mapping: Alternatives in Practice o ERM Techniques and Tools for Effective Implementation From Knowledgeleader by Proviti
Session 12: Wednesday, February 25
12.1 Enterprise Wide Approach to Risk Management (ERM), Continued o
Integrated Strategic Risk Management Plans
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Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] Posco ERM Plan – Research Plan Examples Discussion
Session 14: Monday, March 2
16.1 Historical Case: 1997 – 1999 Asian Economic Crisis: Korea Reading: “Samsung pleads quilty in US for price fixing” •
Session 15: Wednesday, March 4
15.1
Historical Case: Lone Star Capital Case
Readings: Na Jeong-ju, “Auditors Call Lone Star Unqualified as KEB Buyer,” Korea Times Online, June 19, 2006. http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200606/kt2006061917153410220.htm “Backlash Seen from Lone Star Uproar” Joong Ang Ilbo report “Lone Star gets approval to take over KEB” “Profit Soars at KEB” “Probe Stalls bid to Sell KEB” Lone Star Fund corporate description •
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SPRING BREAK No classes March 9 & 11
Session 16: Monday, March 16
19.1
Exercise North Korean Nuclear Issue Influence on South Korean Sovereign Rating Question Review and Discussion
19.2
Feedback Final Project Proposal Team Activity – Risk Exposure Description, Measurement, and Quantification & Risk Control and Financing Plan Final Project Proposal Team Activity Discussion – Risk Descriptions & Risk Control Plans
Session 17: Wednesday, March 18
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] 17.1
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Final construction of Delphi Survey
Research Resource: Where to find country risk information on the Internet: “Countryrisk.com” Bank of Korea
Session 18: Monday, March 23
18.1
Security Risk o Security Risks: Identification, Contingency Planning and Management o Types of Security Risks & Methods of Identifying Them o Security Risk Management Tools o Site Security: Personnel, Plant & Assets Personnel Security: Travel, Crime, Kidnap & Ransom] o
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Newsome, Bruce, “Expatriate Games” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 29: 75 – 89, 2006 Barth, Steve. “Risky Business Part 1: The Professionals,” World Trade Magazine, http://www.global-insight.com/wt9807a.htm Barth, Steve. “Risky Business Part 2: Spy vs. Spy,” World Trade Magazine, http://www.global-insight.com/wt9808a.htm Barth, Steve. „Risky Buisiness Part 3: An Ounce of Prevention“ World Trade Magazine
Barth, Steve. “Risky Business Part 4: In Dangerous Places,” World Trade Magazine, http://www.global-insight.com/wt9810a.htm “When Things Go Bad Fast,” Risk Management, (December 1998), pp. 20-24 [2 pp.] o o “III Says Kidnap, Ransom Risks Higher Than Ever,” The Insurance Journal, Jan. 23, 2001, http://www.insurancejournal.com Waidelich, Eric. “Controlling the Strike Zone,” Risk Management, (February 1998), o pp. 34-38 [3 pp.] o http://www.krollworldwide.com/services/security/ (Review all Kroll security services offerings) o http://www.pinkertonagency.com/ http://www.pinkertonagency.com/global/global.html http://www.pinkertonagency.com/global/services.html http://www.pinkertonagency.com/crisis/crisis.html http://www.ci-pinkerton.com/news/globalPS.html o http://www.guardsmark.com/ For an example of a company specializing in catastrophic risks and an example of a probabilistic model for forecasting acts of terrorism, see: http://www.air-worldwide.com/_public/html/about_air.asp o o
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] Session 19: Wednesday, March 25
OPERATIONAL SECURITY IN INDONESIA SIMULATION
Session 20: Monday, March 30
Session 21: Wednesday, April 1
Review 21.2. Regulatory Risk • •
Regulatory Risk and Negative Government Actions Regulatory Risk Research Resources
Review the following web sites, which are excellent research resources for identification and forecasting regulatory risk: •
Davidson Data Center Network . See: http://ddcn.prowebis.com/browse_subject2.asp See for example the following located by using the search function on the website: http://ddcn.prowebis.com/study_detail.asp?studyid=410 and http://ddcn.prowebis.com/study_detail.asp?studyid=412 Visit these two websites and read the abstracts to see the type or relevant information you can find there pertaining to political risk. The Competitiveness, Technology and Firm Linkages in Manufacturing Sectors dataset was created from a firm-level survey conducted by the World Bank in 2001. The survey covers 1,500 Chinese firms, across ten sectors, which are evenly distributed across five large cities: Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Tianjing. Data include information on innovations, market environment, international trade, revenue, costs, and labor force among others. See: http://ddcn.prowebis.com/browse_featured.asp The micro panel surveys of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) cover the period of 1980 to 1994. See: http://ddcn.prowebis.com/browse_featured.asp
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Review the World Bank Governance Data Sets at: http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/data.html
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] •
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Other World Bank data and information concerning: o World Business Environment Survey o Investment Climate o Doing Business See: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wbes/index2.html World Bank Foreign Investment Advisory Service Investment Climate Indicators http://www.fias.net/investment_climate.html
Recommended Readings: •
Isaacson, Walter. Kissinger: A Biography, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992, Chapter 33 “Kissinger Associates: How the World’s Most Famous Consultant Struck It Rich,” pp. 730-59 [30 pp.]
Session 22: Monday, April 6 (Sec Risk Symposium)
[Participate in Symposium; volunteer/work; networking session for internships, resume sharing] Session 23: Wednesday, April 8 (Sec Risk Symposium)
. Risk Insurance o Political Risk Insurance Trade Credit Insurance o Readings: o MIGA Teams Up with Korean Export Insurance Corporation: Agreement to encourage Korean investment into developing countries Zinkewicz, Phil. "The World of Risk: As US investment swells in the less-developed o countries, corporate risk managers are running for cover - and opening up new opportunities for private insurers," International Business, February 1996, pp. 20-24 [3 pp.] o Bourbeau, Heather. "Political Risk Insurance Becomes All the Rage in Emerging Markets," The Street.com, www.thestreet.com/int/emerging/822667.html, [3 pp.] o www.opic.gov o www.miga.org o http://www.finnvera.fi/index.cfm?id=1712 (includes premium calculator and excellent definitions and bullet points summarizing risks covered) Session 24: Monday, April 13
. Calculating Policy Premiums Premium Calculation ICX/Case Study Overviews Session 25: Wednesday, April 15
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] TISA Terrorism Insurance and Securities Act 2001 Readings: o Gerber, Joseph A. and Richard C. Glazer, “Seeking Responsibility: Recovery for Risk Managers,” Risk Management, (February 1998), pp. 40-44 [3 pp.] o Kush, Brent and Jessica Schmitchel, “Tips for Settling a Business Interruption Claim,” Risk Management (October 1998), pp. 42-45 [4 pp.] o Cuff, John and Michele Watson, “Insolvency: A Risk Manager’s Mayday Call,” Risk Management (August 1998), pp. 25-26 [2 pp.] o Lloyd Dixon et al, “Issues and Options for Government Intervention in the Market for Terrorism Insurance,” Santa Monica, CA: RAND, OP135, 2004. Freely available o “Terrorism Insurance Coming Out of the Shadows” Asia Insurance Review, March 2003
Session 26: Monday, April 20
. Review 13.2. Reputation Risk & Issue Group Campaigns o How NGOs Influence the Business Environment o Civil Liability & Tort Actions Readings: o Greenpeace.com, Greenpeace News, June 17, 2004. “Coming clean: Samsung announces phase out of hazardous chemicals in products.” o Medford, C. “Yahoo China Sounds Off: Portal company responds to music industry’s copyright threat through reputation specialists,” www.redherring.com, July 7, 2006. o Naughton, Philippe, “Yahoo Blamed for Jailing of Chinese Reporter,” Times Online, www.timesonline.co.uk, September 7, 2005. o o Overell, Stephen. "Masters of the great game turn to business," The Financial Times, March 22, 2000 [3 pp.] Chittenden, Maurice and Nicholas Rufford. "MI6 'Firm' Spied on Green Groups," The o Sunday Times of London, June 17, 2001 [4 pp.] o Karon, Tony, “If You Can't Beat 'Em, Pander to 'Em: How McDonald's outlets keep the locals happy in hotbeds of anti-Americanism,” Business 2.0, December 2002. http://www.business2.com o Romero, Simon. “War and Abuse Do Little to Harm U.S. Brands,” The New York Times, May 9, 2004. Kudla, Danielle, “Western Technology Sales and The Status of Human Rights and the o Freedom of Speech in China, University of Pennsylvania Senior Honors Thesis, 2003, pp. 65-68 [4 pp.] on ATCA and Doe vs. Unocal
Session 27: Wednesday, April 22
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] Session 28: Monday, April 27 Make-up session and wrap-up with review. •
Security Risks lecture notes and URL links Assignments and Deadlines
Final Project Proposal—TBA North Korean Nuclear Issue Delphi Exercise --TBA Final Exam – WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2009 Final Project –Monday, April 27, 2009 •
Final Project Assignment and Instructions
Key in-class written assignments: • • • •
Course and syllabus familiarization Political Risk definitions and dimensions of risk Delphi Questionnaire construction Political Risk Section of an Enterprise Risk Management P lan
Course Policies and Grading
Philosophy and Objectives The objective of Political Risk Analysis is to teach students to apply social science theories and concepts to the challenges of addressing international political risks to the continuity, effectiveness, and profitability of the operations of business, gove rnment, and other organizations. The pedagogical philosophy of the course is decidedly practical and applied. Our aim will always be to apply the techniques of political risk analysis we study to real-world problems in the realm of business and government operations. Instructional Methods The course will seek to impart knowledge and develop skills by presenting students with a balanced instructional regime consisting of lectures, discussions, in-class exercises, individual and group assignments, simulations, and interactions with practicing professionals. Students and the instructors will also participate in social and recreational activities to facilitate networking and teamwork.
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] Attendance Attendance at all class sessions and associated special functions is mandatory and will be weighed significantly in grading. Many of our learning activities will require extensive coordination among students, instructors, and our outside partners. Your consistent attendance is crucial to our ability to achieve our objectives. There will be course related activities and events outside the regularly scheduled class time. Conduct We will maintain the highest standards of professionalism. This includes being fully prepared for class, timely completion of reading materials and assignments, active engagement in all class discussions and exercises, and consistent attendance. This is particularly important with regard to team projects and group activities. Students are expected to express well-thought out personal opinions based on evidence and where necessary, sound argumentation in support of subjective weighing and valuation of factors. You will be carefully monitored and your engagement, participation and team contributions weigh significantly in determination of grades. Requirements and Grading Students will be evaluated on all activities and assignments throughout the term and all such evaluations will be considered in the determination of course grades. Students will be evaluated according to their performance in four categories and grades will be a determined according to the following formula: 1) Student Engagement & In-Class Exercises and Assignments - 30% Student engagement refers to the quality of contributions to class discussions, exercises, and collaborate projects; student citizenship, collegiality, and supportiveness of colleagues; leadership, followership, cooperativeness, attitude and class preparation. Performance on in-class written exercises, activities, and assignments is also a critical element of this component of the course grade. 2) Delphi exercise—10% 3) Final Project Proposal & Final Project Individual Grade – 10% 4) Final Project & Final Project Team Grade - 30% 5) Final exam – 20% Students will receive a letter grade on each assignment in each category. Grades for all assignments in each category will be averaged and the final grade will be determined by a weighted sum according to the formula set forth above. Students may receive both individual and team or group grades on selected assignments. The semester project will be a 20 – 50 page report that employs one or more of the risk models or methodologies to the analysis of an international political risk problem.
Dr. Frank Plantan, Jr International Relations Program. 636 Williams Hall/6305 Tel.: (215) 898-0453 Email:
[email protected] Students will have wide latitude in choosing the methods they employ and the case or cases to which they apply them. The parameters of the semester project will be specified at midsemester. All proposal topics must have prior approval by Dr. Plantan.
