Influência Do Fenómeno El Nino Na Variabilidade Climática de Moçambique

 

L GMEAXÉMOGL BK EHMßDHMK HA MGMK ML UL^GLNGAGBLBH OAGDÌRGOL BH DKÆLDNG\XH.

g

Ugotkrgmk Olmbghgrk  

Gmtrkbuæïk   Mks ùatgdks lmks k mkssk Släs thd hmerhmtlbk prknahdls rhalogkmlbk okd dublmæls oagdìtgols, okdhælmbk pkr ogoakmhs, Gmumblæøhs h hmo`hmths prkvkolbks phal dlrç latl quh dugtl bls vhzhs lehotl l vgbl bls okdumgblbh. Skr kutrk albk ls suls olusls sïk lpkmtlbls okdk mlturlgs h ku lmtrkpkfçmgols. Bh ekrdl fhrla, K sgsthdl bh ìfuls suphregoglgs lprhshmtl vlrglngagblbh gmthrlmula h gmthrbholbla phrohptävha, rhalogkmlbl lks plbrøhs bh prhogpgtlæïk h ã vlrglngagblbh dlgs rhohmth rhalogkmlbl ãs dublmæls ml oknhrturl bl thrrl. Hsth trlnla`k lprhshmtl udl rhvgsïk bks hehgtks bl vlrglngagblbh bk oagdl mk thrrgtÿrgk dkældngolmk, gmeauhmoglbk pkr ehmÿdhmk ha Mgmk quh sh olrlothrgzl hd o`uvls grrhfualrhs. K trlnla`k  prhthmbh lnkrblr l vlrglngagblbh oagdìtgol quh sh rhfgstl hd Dkældngquh okdk plrth bks hehgtks bh ehmÿdhmk Ha Mgmk. R knihotgvk9 Lmlagslr l Gmeauémogl bk ehmÿdhmk Ha mgmk ml Ulrglngagblbh Oagdìtgol bh Dkældngquh.

Dhtkbkakfgl Slrl l rhlagzlæïk bk prhshmth hstubk, ekg bhshmvkavgbk dçtkbk bh phsqugsl ngnagkfrìegol okmsgstgu ml okmsuatl okmsuatl bh lrtgfk lrtgfks, s, thshs h knrls knrls agthrìrgls quh lnkrbl lnkrbld d sknrh l lmkdlagl Ha  Mgmk h shu gdplotk ml vlrglngagblbh oagdìtgol bk mkssk pläs, phal rlrgblbh bls ekmths k shu thkr thvh quh shr lblptlbk mudl quhstïk fhrla hsphogegolbk okd hxhdpak okmorhtks hsths quh mks ahvlrld lk oldpk plrl quhstïk bh knshrvlr ks hehgtks okdk tçomgol bh okahotl bh blbks, k shu hmekquh ekg bh udl lnkrblfhd qulagtltgvl.

 

GMEAXÉMOGL BK EHMßDHMK HA MGMK ML UL^GLNGAGBLBH OAGDÌRGOL BH DKÆLDNG\XH. Okmohgtk Ha Mgmk K Ha Mgük ç udl lmkdlagl quh lokmthoh mk Kohlmk Sloäegok Hqultkrgla iumtk okd k hmerlquhogdhmtk bks vhmtks laäsgks (quh sïk vhmtks bh ahsth plrl khsth hd nlgxks mävhgs) ml rhfgïk hqultkrgla. Okd hssls dublmæls, lathrl k plbrïk bh ogroualæïk ltdkseçrgol, oluslmbk hd tkbk Salmhtl, ehmÿdhmks okdk hmo`hmths, shols, h kutrks prknahdls sÿogk-ldnghmtlgs h hokmÿdgoks. Hssh ehmÿdhmk mïk thd ud ogoak nhd bhegmgbk, kokrrhmbk hmtrh > l 6 lmks (Kagvhgrl, 337).

Ogoakmhs h thdphstlbhs ^haltgvldhmth ã kokrrémogl bh ogoakmhs, quhr ls thmbémogls rhohmths mls knshrvlæøhs, quhr ks rhsuatlbks bh dkbhalæïk l akmfk prlzk lpkmtld quh ls dublmæls oagdìtgols pkbhrïk lehotlr ls olrlothrästgols bks dhsdks mk subkhsth bk Kohlmk Ämbgok (GMFO, >337). Ls knshrvlæøhs dkstrld quh hxgsth udl gmbgolæïk bh ludhmtk quhr ml erhquémogl quhr ml gmthmsgblbh bks ogoakmhs, okmtubk, bh lokrbk okd k GMFO, k mùdhrk bh hvhmtks mhsth phräkbk ç bhdlsglbk agdgtlbk plrl shrvgr bh nlsh l thmbémogls hstltgstgoldhmth sgfmgegoltgvls.  Mk hmtlmtk, k hstubk bk GMFO (>337) prhvgld quh ogoakmhs dlgs shvhrks rhprhshmtlrgld l dlgkr ldhlæl plrl l okstl ltç ohrol bh >3?3. Sksthrgkrdhmth, k ludhmtk lohahrlbk bk mävha dçbgk bls ìfuls bk dlr lprhshmtl k dlgkr phrgfk, hsphogladhmth qulmbk okdngmlbk okd ls dlrçs-latls h vlfls bh thdphstlbh. hdlga9   vgotkrgmkolmbghgrkCfdlga.okd  8  © Ugotkrgmk Olmbghgrk

 

Bh lokrbk lgmbl okd k hstubk bk GMFO (>337), l ^hfgïk Ohmtrla ç l dlgs lehotlbl (okdplrltgvldhmth ls ^hfgøhs bk _ua h Mkrth) pkr ogoakmhs dlgs gmthmsks h phak ludhmtk bk mävha dçbgk bls ìfuls bk dlr. Knvgldhmth ç k quh sh lssgsth mks ùatgdks thdpks okd ks Ogoakmhs jhmmht Gblg, Hakgsh, O`lalmh hmtrh kutrls vhmblvlgs eustgfld l rhfgïk. Okdk dkstrls gdlfhms hd lmhxk. Skr kutrk albk, l sungbl bk mävha dçbgk bk dlr pkbhrì lgmbl lfrlvlr k ehmÿdhmk bh gmtrusïk slagml, quhr mks rgks quhr mks lquäehrks. ^haltgvldhmth lk lfrlvldhmtk bl gmtrusïk slagml mks rgks, k Ohmtrk bh Dkældngquh pkbhrì shr k dlgs lehotlbk hd thrdks bh ìrhl suihgtl l hsth ehmÿdhmk. Slrl k Bgstrgtk bh Mgoklblal, mk hmtlmtk, mïk sh hmokmtrld bgspkmävhgs blbks okmorhtks sknrh l ìrhl ìrhl lehotlbl phal gmtrusïk gmtrusïk slagml (DGOKL >3 p. 5337) tldnçd DGOKL rhehrgl-sh quh, quh, h k Bgstrgtk bh Mgoklblal, k rgsok bh o`hgls ç iì nlgxk (>3). Mk hmtlmtk, h l tätuak bh hxhdpak mhsth bgstrgtk, olsk kokrrl udl o`hgl okd ud phräkbk bh rhtkrmk 7 bh 2% bl ìrhl bl ^hfgïk Ohmtrla lprhshmtl rgsok hxtrhdk h ?6% rgsok hahvlbk Ml zkml oksthgrl, hd plrtgoualr mk Bgstrgtk bh Mgoklblal k rgsok bh gmoémbgk ç, hd fhrla, hahvlbk (thmbk hd okmtl lphmls l  prhogpgtlæïk h l hvlpktrlmspgrlæ hvlpktrlmspgrlæïk), ïk), bh lokrbk okd Ehrmlmbh Ehrmlmbhss (>337) (gm GMFO, >337). >337).

5  © Ugotkrgmk Olmbghgrk

hdlga9  

vgotkrgmkolmbghgrkCfdlga.okd 

 

Okmoausïk L gmeauémogl bh ha mgmk ml vlrglngagblbh oagdìtgol bh Dkældngquh, egzhdks hstubk bh olsk bk bgstrgtk bh Mgoklblal. Okmoauädks quh l vlrglngagblbh oagdìtgol mhssl rhfgïk ç bgmîdgol lprhshmtlmbk l olbl lmk vlrglngagblbh bh dlmgehstlæïk bh hehgtks bls dublmæl oagdìtgols okmtrgnuäbls phak ehmÿdhmk Ha Mgmk. Ugdks quh ls o`uvls sïk grrhfualrhs okd thmbémogls lmkrdlgs bh oluslr gmumblæøhs qulmbk o`kvh lphslr bh shr hd ud phräkbk rhaltgvldhmth ourtk qulmbk okdplrlbk okd k vhrïk. okmekrdh k hstubk bk GMFO (>337), l ^hfgïk Ohmtrla ç l dlgs lehotlbl (okdplrltgvldhmth ls ^hfgøhs bk _ua h Mkrth) pkr ogoakmhs dlgs gmthmsks h  phak ludhmtk bk mävha dçbgk bls ìfuls bk dlr. Knvgldhmth ç k quh sh lssgsth mks ùatgdks thdpks okd ks Ogoakmhs jhmmht Gblg, Hakgsh, O`lalmh hmtrh kutrls vhmblvlgs quh eustgfld l rhfgïk. Lotuladhmth, bh lokrbk okd ls okmbgæøhs oagdltkaÿfgols: `udgblbh `udgblbh h dlthrgla okdnustävha: olrlothrästgols tkpkfrìegols, oknhrturl vhfhtla h bhmsgblbh bhdkfrìegol, >2% bl ìrhl bl ^hfgïk Ohmtrla lprhshmtl rgsok hxtrhdk h ?6% rgsok hahvlbk Ml zkml oksthgrl, hd  plrtgoualr mk Bgstrgtk bh Mgoklblal k rgsok bh gmoémbgk ç, hd fhrla, hahvlbk (thmbk hd okmtl lphmls l prhogpgtlæïk h l hvlpktrlmspgrlæïk), bh lokrbk okd Ehrmlmbhs (>337) (gm GMFO, >337). Lgmbl mk dhsdk phräkbk rhfgstl-sh tldnçd hstglfhd mks oldpks lfräokal.

6  © Ugotkrgmk Olmbghgrk

hdlga9  

vgotkrgmkolmbghgrkCfdlga.okd 

 

^hokdhmblæøhs Ks ehmÿdhmks oagdìtgok okdk Ha Mgük bhvhd shr hstublbk l eumbk, legmla bhphmbhm bhphmbhmbk bk bh sul gmthmsgblbh, pÿs l sul gmeauémogl mls vlrghblbhs oagdìtgol lgmbl hmokmtrl-sh dhmks hxpakrlbl mïk sÿ hd Mgoklbl Mgoklblal, al, dls sgd lk lk mävha fh fhrla. rla. Bhvh-sh gmvhstgr hd phsqugsls sknrh hssh lssumtk, h ç tldnçd mhohssìrgk quh ks fkvhrmlmths luxgaghd lks oursks rhalogkmlbks l hsths ehmÿdhmks gmvhstgmbk tldnçd hd thomkakfgls quh luxgaghd l prhvhmgr l pkpualæïk, pkgs hstl ç l dlgs lehotlbl okd ks hehgtks bhsshs ehmÿdhmks.

^hehrémogls ngnagkfrìegols lathrl æøhs oagdìtgols mk rgsok bh olaldgblbhs hd GMFO (>337) - Hstubk sknrh k gdplotk bls lathrlæøhs ‟  _hfumbl  Dkældngquh ^haltÿrgk _ämthsh  ‟   _hfumbl Uhrsïk. Dlgk.

Dlputk Dkældngquh.

Aknk, I. I. (336).  Salmk bh loæïk plrl l prhvhmæïk h okmtrkak bl hrksïk bh skaks >330  ‟   >3336).  ^haltÿrgk mlogkmla sknrh ldnghmth dlrgm`k h oksthgrk . Dgmgstçrgk plrl l Okkrbhmlæïk bl Loæïk Ldnghmtla, Bgrhoæïk Mlogkmla bh Fhstïk Ldnghmtla, DlputkDkældngquh. DGOKL (>3). Shrega bk bgstrgtk bh Mgoklblal. Shrega ldnghmtla h dlphldhmtk bk usk lotula bl thrrl mks bgstrgtks bl zkml oksthgrl bh Dkældngquh. Gdplotk. DlputkDkældngquh. Kagvhgrl, F. _. (3>3>< kmbh dga`k shoku okdpahtldhmth. Mk nlgrrk bh rhlsshmtldhmtk rhlsshmtldhm tk bks bhsakolbks bh Olnk Olnk Bhaflbk. (Ekmth, k lutkr >3>3). g

 Frlbulbk hd Hmsgmk bh @gstÿrgl h Bkoudhmtlæïk phal Xmgvhrsgblbh Shblfÿfgol bh Dkældngquh. Shsqugslbkr gmbhphmbhmth, ls suls ìrhls bh gmthrhssh sïk9 @gstÿrgl _kogla h Skaätgol, Bhshmvkavgdhmtk hbuologkmla h Fhstïk bh umgblbhs bkoudhmtlgs. Hdprhstl shu okm`hogdhmtk l fhkfrlegl h ogémogls ldnghmtlgs, Srkdkvh l plrtgr bh gmgogltgvl gmbgvgbula phsqugsls akolgs mls ìrhls bk shu gmthrhssh.