Improved National Framework on Housing Needs and Housing Needs Estimation

11th National Convention on Statistics (NCS) EDSA Shangri-La Hotel October 4-5, 2010

IMPROVISED NATIONAL FRAMEWORK ON HOUSING NEEDS AND HOUSING NEEDS ESTIMATION

by Nelia R. Marquez, Gervacio G. Selda, Jr., Mary Ann C. Magtulis, Plenee Grace J. Castillo, and Eleanore V. Ramos

For additional information, please contact: Author’s name Designation Affiliation Address Tel. no. E-mail

Nelia R. Marquez, Gervacio G. Selda, Jr., Mary Ann C. Magtulis, Plenee Grace J. Castillo, and Eleanore V. Ramos Consultant, Executive Director, Statistician V/Chief (RITD), Statistician V/Chief (training Division), Statistician III Statistical Research and Training Center J & S Building, 104 Kalayaan Avenue, Diliman, Quezon City +632-9297543 / +632-4260620 / +632-4361426 [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

IMPROVED NATIONAL FRAMEWORK ON HOUSING NEEDS AND HOUSING NEEDS ESTIMATION by Nelia R. Marquez, Gervacio G. Selda Jr., Mary Ann C. Magtulis, Plenee Grace J. Castillo, Eleanore V. Ramos1

ABSTRACT The efforts of government and the private sector to address the challenges of the growing housing need in the country depend largely on the reliability of existing housing statistics combined with having the appropriate framework that will guide the estimation of current and future housing needs. The Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC), in collaboration with Housing and Urban Development and Coordinating Council (HUDCC), under the project “Development of Shelter Monitoring Information System” recommended an improved housing needs framework which does not only focus on backlog, per se, but also on all components of Housing Needs that go into its estimation process and target setting. The concepts for estimating housing needs in the revised framework are based on principles prescribed by the United Nations (UN). The proposed framework has two dimensions: (i) construction of housing units; and (ii) housing support and services, to differentiate the “physical” aspect of the housing industry and the “social” aspect of housing to improve the environment for healthy living. The Housing Support and Services consists of Tenure Security, Site Development, Slum Upgrading, House repair and Housing Finance. The first dimension and main focus of estimation, Construction of housing units, consists of Accumulated or current needs and Recurrent or future needs, as two main components. Accumulated needs comprise the provision of conventional housing units for households occupying living quarters of an unacceptable type and those doubled-up with other households living in acceptable housing units. Recurrent or future needs comprise housing needs expected to arise during the Plan period covered by the estimates which include housing units for (a) new households formed, and (b) households whose housing units were lost due to obsolescence, floods, fire, urban renewal/slum clearance, etc. These items were estimated by utilizing data from the 1990 and Censuses of Population and Housing, and 2007 Population Census. The estimated housing needs from 2007-2010 is 3.6 million units. The proposed national framework on housing needs is recommended to be the basis for coming up with estimates on stock and demands for housing as well as target setting for planning and decision-making initiatives on decent shelters, with acceptable conditions, that Filipinos deserve to have.

KEY WORDS AND PHRASES: housing need, housing framework, housing backlog I.

INTRODUCTION/RATIONALE

In order to ensure security of shelter for the Filipino family and provide affordable and decent housing, especially for the poor, the 2005-2010 Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan (MTPDP) cites three (3) key challenges for the housing construction sector. These challenges are: (i) meeting the rapidly growing housing need; (ii) expanding participation of private sector in socialized housing financing and construction; and (iii) strengthening capacity of housing institutions.

1

Project Consultant, SRTC Executive Director, Statistician V and Chief, Research and Information Technology Division, Statistician V and Chief, Training Division, and Statistician III. Statistical Research and Training Center, 104 Kalayaan Avenue, Diliman, Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines; e-mail: [email protected]

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Government and private sector can conceive of well-thought strategies and convergent action plan in addressing these challenges. Its success, however, largely depends on the reliability of existing housing statistics and appropriateness of framework to guide estimation procedure. The Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC), as the research and training arm of the Philippine Statistical System, in collaboration with Housing and Urban Development and Coordinating Council (HUDCC), conducted a research project entitled “Housing Backlog Study” under the “Development of Shelter Monitoring Information System (DSMIS).” Two of the expected outputs in this project are: (i) review of the framework on housing needs vis-à-vis backlog and (ii) make recommendations of an alternative framework of housing needs. From the recommended framework, better estimate of housing needs vis-à-vis backlog is generated. The series of consultations involving participation of inter-agencies, both from the government and private sectors, resulted in an “Improved Framework of Housing Needs.” It should be emphasized that this study is not limited to the “backlog” as a component of the Housing Needs but includes all other components that go into the estimation process of housing needs and target setting. The review on the framework on “Housing Backlog” was done within the purview of the different MTPDPs. In particular, review different estimates on housing needs, backlogs, targets and accomplishments involving several planning periods was conducted. In the plan periods 1987-1992 and 1993-1998, the housing need or the deficiency in housing is composed of 1) Future needs of new households due to increase in population or household attributed to new formation and in-migration, and replacement of existing stock attributed to age and deterioration; and 2) Backlog consists of doubled-up households, substandard dwelling units, required slum upgrading and homeless. In the plan periods 19992004 and 2005-2010, the frameworks on housing need were not adequately defined. For 20052010 in particular, the composition of the housing need of Housing Backlog, Substandard (Upgrading) and New Households. Housing Backlog is composed of doubled-up housing, replacement and/or Informal Settlers and Homeless. All the terms used in the estimation of housing need were not defined in the Plan document. For any housing framework, it has to be well-defined and comprehensive as it will be the basis for preparing more accurate estimates for housing targets not only for socialized housing but also for other stakeholders in the housing sector. II.

REVISITING THE UNITED NATIONS’ COMPONENT METHOD OF ESTIMATING HOUSING NEEDS

Concept of “Housing Need” The United Nations defines housing needs as the number of conventional dwellings or other suitable living quarters that need to be constructed or repaired in order to bring housing conditions, as of a particular point in time, up to nationally adopted standards, plus the number that need to be constructed, repaired and/or maintained to ensure that housing conditions remain at the standard level over a stated period of time.

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“Housing need” and “housing requirements” have the same meaning and are used interchangeably throughout the UN manual. UN has broadly classified the principal components of housing needs in developing countries to three major categories,2 namely: 1.

2.

3.

Accumulated needs (housing needs which exist at the beginning of the period covered by the estimates) a. Number of dwellings or other acceptable living quarters* required for: (i) Households without shelter (homeless) (ii) Households occupying living quarters of an unacceptable type (iii) Households involuntarily doubled-up with other households in living quarters of an acceptable type (iv) Reduction in levels of density (persons per room ratio or area per person) in acceptable living quarters to a desired level b. Number of living quarters which are of an acceptable type but in need of repair or replacement Recurrent or future needs (needs expected to arise during the period covered by the estimates) a. Number of dwellings or other acceptable living quarters required for: (i) Projected increase in the number of households during the period covered by the estimates (ii) Replacement of living quarters of an acceptable type which will be lost from the inventory during the period covered by the estimates b. Number of living quarters that will require maintenance and repairs during the period covered by the estimates. Allowance in the estimates for vacant dwellings

It is recognized that not all the above components be taken into account by all developing countries in estimating housing needs. The components of the future needs are universally applicable since they represent the housing required for population growth, replacement of housing as it reaches the end of its useful life and recurrent repairs and maintenance required to keep the housing stock up to established standards. However, the components to be considered in estimating accumulated needs will vary according to the housing conditions in the country concerned. “Accumulated needs” which is also “current needs,” include not only accumulated backlogs such as housing needs of doubled-up households and the homeless, those living in unacceptable type of housing but also include replacement of dilapidated housing units and repair of housing units at the start of the plan period. “Recurrent or future needs” is simply known as the future needs due to increase in the number of households and replacement of housing units that will be lost during the inventory period. The third major category in the UN Component Method is “allowance in the estimates for vacant buildings”, not usually included in the estimation of housing needs in the country. In setting up of targets, UN emphasized that it is more important to target the immediate replacements of inventory losses as these happen, because not doing so will contribute to serious shortage of housing and lead to deterioration of the housing stock. On the rate of replacement, the UN did not specify any value and allowed countries to decide. However, 100 2

Source: United Nations, Methods of Estimating Housing Needs, Studies in Methods Series F. No. 12, New York, 1967.

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years was suggested as the life of houses in European countries. Also, provision for new housing unit for doubled-up households may not be as urgent as those housing units required to replace dilapidated and unacceptable units, and provide housing for newly formed households. A comparison is made between and among framework as shown in UN Component Method and those of NSO Operationalization3 and HUDCC’s Guidelines for the Preparation of Local Shelter Plans.4 There is a significant difference in the composition. Below is the summary: UN Component

4

HUDCC Guidelines

Difference

Housing Need

Housing Need

Need for New Units

1. Accumulated Needs:

1. Backlog

1. Backlog:

Terminology

1.1 Doubled-up Households in acceptable dwelling units

1.1 Doubled-up families living in both acceptable & unacceptable dwelling units

1.1 Doubled-up HHs living in both acceptable & unacceptable dwelling units

- UN includes only those involuntary doubled-up and potential households living in acceptable dwelling units

1.2 Replace Housing units of unacceptable type (salvaged materials)

1.2

1.2

Displaced Units

- HUDCC refers HUs in danger areas while UN and NSO refer to HUs of unacceptable construction materials. HUDCC is much more limited in scope.

1.3 Households without shelter

No mention

1.3

Homeless

- Same definition of homeless with UN

1.4 HUs of acceptable type but in need of repair or replacement

No mention

No item for replacement of dilapidated acceptable housing units.

2. Recurrent or future needs

2. Future Need

2. Future Population growth

2.1

2.1

2.1

HUs for increase in HHs

2.2 Replace HUs due to inventory loss, obsolescence, etc. but did not recommend any rate.

3

NSO Operationalization

Unacceptable dwellings

New HHs

2.2 Replacement of inventory losses. NSO used in its housing projection 2% for HUs made of concrete, 3.3% made of mixed materials, 5% for light materials.

- HUDCC treats this as needing upgrading but did not consider replacement of dilapidated structures at the start of Plan period.

HUs for increase - No difference in HHs

No provision in the guidelines

- HUDCC provided replacement in Plan period 1987-1992 but did not provide for inventory loss of housing stock in succeeding Plan periods.

The National Census and Statistics Office (NCSO now NSO) in 1979 prepared a Housing Needs in the Philippines 1970-2000 projections published as Monograph No. 18 of a UNFPA-NCSO Population Research Project. Formulated as reference of Local Government Units (LGUs) in the preparation of a local shelter plan.

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III.

RECOMMENDED FRAMEWORK ON HOUSING NEEDS

Since the UN Component Method of Estimating Housing Needs considered not only on backlog component but also the needs of projected households and replacement allowance due to inventory losses, it is recommended that the PSS look into the evaluation made using this UN Component Method which has been the product of exhaustive research contributed not only by international housing experts but UN-member countries as well. The proposed framework for housing need is an adaptation of the UN Component method to suit local conditions. It has two dimensions: (i) construction of housing units; and (ii) housing support and services. The rationale for this proposal is to identify the “physical” aspect of the housing industry and the “social” aspect of housing to improve the environment for healthy living. Both are addressed by government’s housing assistance program which can be in a form of cash vs. loan, house and lot, lot only, temporary shelters, community improvement, etc. The physical aspect of housing needs would be the construction of acceptable dwellings as living quarters, therefore, the unit of reporting the housing need would be in terms of housing units constructed, regardless of the type of building. This is composed of: 1.

Accumulated or current needs - is defined as housing needs that exist at the beginning of the Plan Period covered by the estimate, and include the following components: a. Number of conventional Housing Units (HUs) required to provide for: •

Households without shelter (homeless)

•

Households occupying living quarters of an unacceptable type, e.g., barongbarong, houses made of makeshift or salvaged materials, and those residing in non-conventional dwellings.

•

Households that are doubled-up with other households in acceptable dwelling units with the assumption that all those doubled-up households are in need of separate housing accommodation.

b. Number of conventional housing units which are dilapidated or condemned to be replaced. 2.

Recurrent or Future needs – housing needs expected to arise during the Plan Period covered by the estimates, it could be annual, medium term, or long term. a. Number of housing units required to provide to new households covered by the Plan Period. b. Replacement of housing units of acceptable type that were lost during the period covered by the estimates. Losses include housing units lost due to obsolescence, floods, fire, urban renewal/slum clearance, etc. This can be done by age and construction materials based on trends observed between censuses.

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The following chart will show the different components that go into the estimation of housing construction: Housing Needs: Construction of Housing Units Housing Needs

Accumulated or Current Housing Needs

Number of Conventional Housing Units provided for: 1. Homeless 2. Households in unacceptable type 3. Doubled-up households in acceptable type Replacement of Dilapidated/Condemned Conventional Housing Units

Recurrent/Future Housing Needs

Number of Housing Units for New Households

Number of Housing Units to Replace Inventory Losses

The UN components pertaining to “Reduction in levels of density in acceptable living quarters to a desired level” and “allowance for vacant dwellings” are not considered in the proposal. There is no need to consider the “reduction of density to a desired level,” because all doubled-up households have already been considered, therefore, the overcrowding due to doubling-up may have been eased. In the “allowance for vacant dwellings,” it was observed that in all census years 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 there are always vacant housing units counted. Therefore, estimates would be limited to occupied dwellings or housing units. For the Housing Support and Services, this is a new attempt to separate the social aspects of housing in the estimate of housing needs. The proposed framework which may be looked into more closely involves Tenure Security, Housing Finance, Site Development, Slum Upgrading and House Repair.

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Housing Support and Services

Housing Needs

Tenure Security

Housing Finance

Site Developmen

Slum Upgrading

House Repair

For Tenure Security, the Community-based Management System (CBMS) list of cities and municipalities with a list of informal settlers may be used as benchmark data in the absence of a more complete list of areas where informal settlers are located. Housing Finance is measured by the number of residential unit construction financed by the government and loan availment/releases or the volume of mortgage take-outs or purchases. Financing institution such as Housing Guaranty Corporation (HGC), Home Development Mortgage Fund (HDMF), Social Security System (SSS) and Government Service Insurance System (GSIS) have data on this. For Site Development, National Housing Authority (NHA) may have a list of Community Mortgage Projects (CMPs) for Metro Manila and the local government may have also some list to provide for benchmark data. In the Urban Development and Housing Act (UDHA) implementation, the local government units (LGUs) are mandated to implement Section 7 which requires the conduct of an inventory of all lands and improvements within their localities in coordination with the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) and to update this inventory every three years and furnish the HUDCC a copy including updates. Section 8 provides for the identification of sites for socialized housing and the LGUs in coordination with NHA, HLURB, National Mapping Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), and the Land Management Bureau (LMB) shall identify lands for socialized housing and resettlement areas, taking into consideration the degree of availability of basic services and facilities, their accessibility and proximity to job sites and other economic opportunities, and the actual number of registered beneficiaries. If all these areas are identified, then these can be programmed for implementation so that Housing Support and Services can be planned adequately to realize the provisions of the socialized housing law. For Slum Upgrading, Clearance, the benchmark data may come from the inventory of areas identified by the local governments in accordance with the provisions of UDHA although the NHA and HLURB may have its own listing of Area for Priority Development (APDs) as a start up data for this framework. In the UN component method, failure to meet housing requirements as they occur has resulted in a mounting backlog of housing needs the magnitude of which equals or even

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exceeds the existing supply of housing in some countries. Therefore, housing backlog is the difference of Housing Needs and Accomplishment at time (t). This can be decomposed into two components, that is, the backlog is the sum of: a. b.

The difference between housing needs and targets, and The difference between targets and accomplishments.

Housing Backlog is simply the unmet housing needs. Targets and Accomplishments herein are those goal statements and those implemented plans and programs in previous year by concerted efforts of the government and private sectors. This is true for both construction of units and housing support and services. To illustrate:

HOUSING NEEDS

TARGET

ACCOMPLISHME NT

Backlog

IV.

OPERATIONALIZATION OF HOUSING NEEDS FRAMEWORK

The estimation made use of 2000 Census of Population and Housing results as benchmark data for extrapolating estimates of housing needs from year 2007 onwards while 2007 Census of Population (2007 POPCEN) which has reported a preliminary release on the total count of population was used as the jump-off point in projecting households at the regional level. The step by step procedure in the estimation of housing needs for 2000 is enumerated below: 1. The 2000 CPH complete census file (100% coverage) was re-tabulated into the following tables with the purpose of identifying the year built of housing units, the identification of selected indicators as input to the identification of unacceptable structures and households and the actual number of households residing in these housing units. Table 1. Type of Construction Materials of Housing Units (HUs) by Year built, 2000 CPH Table 2. Type of Construction Materials by Selected Indicators of HUs, 2000 CPH

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Table 3. Number of Households by Type of Construction Materials of HUs by Selected Indicators, 2000 CPH Prior to the identification of type of construction materials, all housing units were reclassified into the construction materials category for roof and walls: 1) Strong materials; 2) Light materials; 3) Salvaged/makeshift materials; 4) Mixed but predominantly strong materials; 5) Mixed but predominantly light materials; and 6) Mixed but predominantly salvaged materials. The reclassification was done in order to describe the housing unit based on the combination of the construction materials of the walls and roof. This classification can be used to tabulate the characteristics of the housing units in accordance with selected indicators, using the type of construction materials as the common variable in these tabulations. 2. Four selected indicators are identified from the census file in the following hierarchical manner: Indicator No. 1 - Homeless - the housing units were identified by their codes in the type of building under the “Others” category. The housing units under this category are those living quarters found during the census that were not intended for human habitation like those staying under the bridge, in caves, sleeping in kariton5, or those staying in abandoned buses, in agricultural/industrial/ commercial structures, etc. Indicator No. 2 – Dilapidated/condemned - the structures were identified by looking at the Type of Repair categories under Dilapidated and condemned. These structures are to be replaced during the planning period. Indicator No. 3 - Informal settlers – these were identified through the tenure status of the lot occupied by the housing unit. All those found to be under tenure status of rent-free lot without consent of the owner are identified as belonging to the informal settlers. Indicator No. 4 - Marginal housing units – This include those classified under “Others HUs” category (that is, neither falling under any of the above indicators) and at the same time, classified in the type of construction materials used under the “makeshift/salvage materials” and “mixed but predominantly makeshift/salvaged materials” categories. In the tabulation process, when a housing unit is classified in any of these indicators, then they are no longer counted anywhere else. This makes the housing unit count mutually exclusive from the rest as far as the selected indicators are concerned. The rest of the housing units are classified under Other HUs, which is a residual estimate from the total housing units. In the report, number of informal settlers and households living in marginal housing are combined as one of those under unacceptable housing units. 3. Based on the provincial tabulations of the three tables, regional totals were aggregated by the selected indicators to obtain national totals. 4. The results of Table 3 (Number of households) minus the results in Table 2 (Number Housing Units) in the special tabulation by construction materials yielded the doubled-up households also classified by construction materials. 5. Replacement rate was generated based on the cohort population of buildings anchored on the year the housing unit was constructed.. As a limitation of the study, the percentage losses of housing units by type of construction materials cannot as yet be generated except for NCR which this study has adopted as the percentage rate of replacement of acceptable 5

Sleeping in cariton is not anymore considered as part of “Homeless” in succeeding censuses.

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structures in estimating future housing needs. The average loss annually in Metro Manila is 1.33%. 6. Summary of the consolidated results of the selected indicators was generated showing the total number of housing units. A table showing regional summary was also obtained. The purpose of the table showing the type of construction materials is to identify which structures are unacceptable based on minimum standard of quality. The type of construction materials is used as the minimum standard of quality in the meantime that other quality measures, like number of persons per room or area occupied per person, are not yet considered. 7. After the national estimates were done using the aggregated tabulations from the provincial and regional levels, the detailed components can be computed for each region. In case the regional totals do not tally with the basic table of construction materials by the selected housing indicators, the total of the table on construction materials should prevail. Translation of estimates from May 1, 2000 to July 1, 2000 The tabulations generated above were sourced from the result of the CPH as of May 1, 2000. The initial population total used by the TWG on Population Projection of NSCB as benchmark for projecting the population from 2000 up to 2010 was 76,946,500 as of July 1, 2000. The SRTC Research Team adopted this total to estimate for the housing needs as of July 1, 2000 for comparison with future estimates based on the August 1, 2007 Census of Population also translated into the population as of July 1, 2007 so that it would be easy to compare these estimates with the population projection using the medium growth assumption. 8. Estimates of the number of households and number of housing units as of July 1, 2000 were obtained by applying the percentage share of tabulations above to population projection as of July 1, 2000, that is, 76,946,500. Applying the same procedure to regional figures is done to get the regional estimates. Estimation of Housing Needs as of July 1, 2000 using the 2007 Census of Population regional configuration of provinces 9. The resulting July 1, 2000 estimates are reconfigured using regional configuration of the Census of Population 2007 due to changes in regional, provincial or city/municipal composition. The reason for decomposing the 2000 CPH into 2007 configuration is to generate new indicators to use in the determination of the number of households in the 2007 POPCEN based on the characteristics of the population/housing in 2000. In addition, housing needs on the basis of the new configuration of the regions will also be estimated as basis in evaluating the trend of the housing needs between 2000 and 2010 when the CPH 2010 becomes available. 10. Estimate the number of households based on the 2000 CPH re-configured to 2007 regional composition. This is due to the fact that 2007 POPCEN has yet to come up with the number of households in its final tabulation. Since the housing needs estimation requires the use of number of households to be able to estimate the number of housing units occupied at the time of the census, there is a need to estimate the number of households and the housing needs as of July 1, 2007. Using average household size method, estimated number of households by region is generated using 2000 regional average household size. However, before this was done, the regional composition of 2007 Census had to be matched with the regional composition of the 2000 CPH because there were some changes in the provincial composition.

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11. To determine the number of housing units as of July 1, 2007, the density of the 2000 housing units was computed based on the 2007 regional configuration, by region and by construction materials. Density of housing is the number of households divided by the number of housing units by construction materials and by region in 2000. Using the density of housing generated from 2000 CPH, the number of housing units was estimated by region. The density by construction materials was also computed to be used in estimating housing units by type of construction materials in 2007 and for 2008, 2009 and 2010. 12. Since we have a structure of the selected indicators in 2000 CPH, we used them to extrapolate the same characteristics in the estimates of 2007 the number of housing units and number of households. This yielded an estimate of the doubled-up households, by selected indicators and by region. 13. For the sake of trend analysis at the regional level, with the new composition of some regions, estimates of housing units, number of households and doubled-up households were also done as of July 1 2000 using the 2007 regional composition. The 2000 data will provide the basic data to monitor the extent of accomplishment of the housing program in the next census. It may be mentioned, that when the accumulated needs of 1990 have not been met between 1990 and 2000, then this becomes part of the “backlog” in housing construction, if the objective of the government is to be able to replace all these unacceptable structures over a period of time. Population Projection 14. Since the 2007 actual population count is lower than the level of the official population projection under medium population growth assumption, it was not therefore practical to use the official population projection. Doing so will lead to over-estimation of housing needs. In view of this, SRTC Research Team decided to prepare its own population projection by using the exponential growth rate formula6 and applied the population growth rate computed between the 2000 CPH and 2007 POPCEN to the initial population used by the TWG as of July 1, 2000 in preparing the official projection. Also prepared was the population projection starting 2000 with the same base population as used by the official projection so that there is a means of comparing the effect of the increase in the number of households which will increase the estimate of housing needs. 15. After the population is determined at the national level for 2008, 2009, and 2010 based on the growth rate between the two censuses (2000 CPH and 2007 POPCEN), the national estimate is distributed to the different regions following the pattern of the distribution in 2007. Then the number of households is calculated using the derived household size of the decomposed 2000 data that follows the 2007 regional composition of provinces. Next, the housing density of the region as obtained from the 2000CPH (computed from the decomposed regional classification) is now applied to this projected household to determine the number of housing units. The number of households can be estimated in the same manner as done in 2007 by using the average household size of the configured data of 2000. 16. Considering that one of the components of future needs is the increase in the number of households, the increase is determined at the household level after distribution of national estimate to regions is performed. 17. There is a need to compute for the allowance for replacements annually. The inputs needed are the acceptable housing units according to the construction materials of the unit. Take note that all tabulations were done using the type of construction materials as a common 6

Exponential growth rate: r = [ln (Pn ÷ Po)] ÷ t

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variable. The allowance for replacements of acceptable structures can only be computed after identifying from the Housing Inventory which are acceptable and which are not. 18. Similar tabulations are generated as mentioned in item 6 are produced. These contain the housing needs of the projected population 2008-2010. Presentation of Estimates of Housing Needs: 2007 – 2010 19. Summary of different annual estimates of accumulated needs was established. It is not correct to present the levels of estimates by year and then average the total because it will not show the increments of the needs yearly, thus only the difference between two estimates is presented so that the total housing needs for the period from 2007 to 2010 can be aggregated at the end of the period. The rationale to this is because at the start of the inventory of housing stocks, all unacceptable structures are to be replaced including the doubled-up households during the planned period or based on the objectives of the housing program whether to hasten the elimination of all unacceptable structures within the planned period or target only what the government is able to provide. Furthermore, the annual increments of unacceptable structure contribute to the addition of unacceptable structures at the end of the period which can contribute to additional backlogs of unmet needs for this subcomponent. Based on the literature on housing needs estimation discussed in the UN Handbook of Housing Needs Estimation, this yearly construction which are addition to the present stock still follows the pattern of structure according to the type of construction materials and type of building of the existing stocks, thus, only increments are added to the original inventory. This information may provide the planners more leeway in determining which of the sub-components be given priority. 20. To summarize the annual estimates of allowance for replacements of stock of acceptable housing units and the annual increase of households, the annual estimates are merely aggregated to reflect the extent of the magnitude of the future or recurrent needs on the total housing needs for the three-year period which have to be met in order not to incur housing backlogs in the next planning period. Estimates of Housing Needs as of January 1, 2007 to January 1, 2011 21. Another set of estimates of housing needs was prepared with January 1 for years 2007 to 2010 as reference period. Hence, a corresponding set of population projections was prepared using the same reference period. Since the time reference of estimates shifted from July 1 to January 1, new set of population projections from 2001 to 2011 was prepared using the same exponential growth rate formula applied to the May 1, 2000 population census count and August 1, 2007 population count. The basic formula for exponential growth rate is: Pn = Po ert

(Equation 1)

Translated to exponential rate r = [ln (Pn ) – ln (Po)] ÷ t where:

Pn Po ln t

= the population count as of August 1, 2007 (88,571,421) = the population count as of May 1, 2000 (76,504,077) = the base of natural logarithm which is approximately 2.7183 = the no. of years between May 1 2000 and August 1, 2007 = 7 years and 92/365 days or 7.25205

Annual exponential rate computed: r = 0.0201964 or 2.019%

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22. The number of households in 2007 was estimated using the actual average household size computed from the May 1, 2000 results reconfigured to 2007 regional classification. Prior to this, projected population as of January 1, 2007 is prorated to regions using the percentage distribution of the population count based on August 1, 2007 census. Same procedure was done for 2009-2011. Estimates of Housing Units and Doubled-up Households by Construction Materials: 23. In estimating total housing needs, the estimates for components of selected housing indicators: homeless households, informal settlers, living in dilapidated/condemned structures and residing in marginal housing are computed first. This is by extrapolating the figures generated in January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2007 and onwards. This is on assumption that the same distribution for the indicators will hold true until another census is undertaken. To estimate the number of housing units of selected housing indicators, the following procedure as already discussed above was used. 24. As a requirement in the determination of housing needs by region, number of households, housing units and doubled-up households by region of selected housing indicators were estimated following the same procedure described previously. The specific detailed procedure of determining housing needs by region is as follows: a. Compute the percentage distribution of households of all selected housing indicators by region from the actual data of May 1, 2000 configured in 2007 regional composition. With the estimated total households, the total number of households by region is distributed in each cell using the percentage distribution or ratios. Note that this step will produce slightly different distribution of households by region compared with the first. b. Compute housing density of households as of May 1, 2000 (Step 1) to generate divisors to extrapolate number of housing units in each cell of the housing indicators. Use this density to estimate the housing units in each cell by region by dividing the density by the number of households in each cell. c. After the housing units have been extrapolated, the number of doubled-up households can be computed for each cell by merely getting the difference between the number of households and the number of housing units. The end result of the above procedure will produce tabulation of housing needs by selected housing indicators for 2007. Same procedure is done to generate those for years 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. Estimation of Housing Needs at National Level: 2007-2010 The following Table presents in detail the different components of Housing Needs. The contents of the table include estimates of housing needs showing the major components of accumulated needs and recurrent or future needs for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Based on the UN Component Method in estimating housing needs, the two major components are: Accumulated Needs and Recurrent or Future Needs. Each has subcomponents. Accumulated Needs were estimated initially after conduct of a Census of Housing where the inventory of Housing was taken. It has two categories with subcomponents: 1. Households residing in unacceptable structures a) Those in living quarters not intended for human habitation (Homeless) b) Those in dilapidated/condemned housing units c) Households without security of tenure (Informal settlers) Page 13 of 19

2.

d) Those in marginal housing units Doubled-up households living in acceptable housing units

Recurrent or Future Needs are classified into two: 1. 2.

Replacement of acceptable housing Units due to inventory loss; and Increase in the number of households.

Estimates of Housing Needs by Major Components: January 1, 2007 – December 31, 2010 (Unit in Household) Components of Housing Needs

Total Housing Initial Needs Incremental Needs as of December 31 Needs (As of Jan 1, CY 2007-2010 2007) 2007 BACKLOG (Jan 2-Dec 31) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010

(1) Total Housing Needs

(2) 1,273,395

A. Accumulated Needs 1. HH in Unacceptable Housing a. Homeless b. Dilapidated/condemned c. Marginal Housing (including informal settlers) 2. Doubled-up HH in Acceptable HU

1,273,395 859,310 11,937 134,931 712,442

25,981 17,532 244 2,753 14,535

414,085

8,449

B. Future/Recurrent Needs 1. Allowance for Inventory losses 2. New HHs (likely to afford to own/rent acceptable HU)

(3) (4) 572,388 584,067

(5) 595,981

(6) 608,141

(7) 3,633,972

26,507 17,888 248 2,809 14,831

27,051 18,254 254 2,866 15,134

27,603 18,627 259 2,925 15,443

1,380,537 931,611 12,942 146,284 772,385

8,619

8,797

8,976

448,926

546,407 557,560 215,958 220,364

568,930 224,859

580,538 229,447

2,253,435 890,628

330,449 337,196

344,071

351,091

1,362,807

Following tables show regional breakdown.

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Initial Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2007) Total HHs Homeless

2007 PHILIPPIN 17,470,630 NCR 2,439,578 CAR 301,776 Ilocos Reg 951,073 634,192 Cagayan V Central Luz 1,906,690 Calabarzon 2,193,777 Mimaropa 526,050 Bicol Regio 1,022,310 Western Vi 1,385,985 Central Vis 1,296,731 817,852 Eastern Vis Zamboang 611,081 Northern M 788,425 863,853 Davao Reg Soccsksarg 737,914 Caraga 449,903 ARMM 543,442

11,937 8,018 96 185 189 610 1,056 111 272 125 360 140 94 218 140 127 116 82

Accumulated Needs (as of January 1, 2007) Dilapidate Informal DoubledTotal Up d/ AccumuHousehold Condemn lated s in ed Needs +Marginal Acceptabl e Units 134,931 21,995 859 4,076 4,321 10,023 10,935 3,098 12,983 14,113 10,338 8,650 5,401 6,009 7,481 5,812 3,787 5,050

712,442 221,803 3,837 13,982 11,646 58,612 93,187 16,772 36,382 47,710 44,542 24,292 14,022 26,305 38,420 25,604 23,697 11,630

414,085 1,273,395 134,047 385,862 4,464 9,256 26,329 44,573 11,131 27,286 34,686 103,930 41,227 146,405 5,565 25,547 11,524 61,161 21,171 83,118 17,568 72,808 8,204 41,285 8,339 27,856 17,688 50,220 16,599 62,640 12,078 43,621 7,474 35,074 35,991 52,753

Homeless

244 164 2 4 4 12 22 2 6 3 7 3 2 4 3 3 2 2

Incremental Accumulated Needs Future Needs (January 2-December 31, 2007) Dilapidate Informa Doubled- Increment Inventory Projected Total al Accumu- Losses Up No. of d/ Future Household Condemn New HHs lated Needs s in ed that can Needs l+Marginal Acceptabl afford to e Units buy/rent 2,753 449 18 83 88 204 223 63 265 288 211 176 110 123 153 119 77 103

14,535 4,525 78 285 238 1,196 1,901 342 742 973 909 496 286 537 784 522 483 237

8,448 2,735 91 537 227 708 841 114 235 432 358 167 170 361 339 246 152 734

25,979 7,872 189 909 557 2,120 2,987 521 1,248 1,696 1,485 842 568 1,025 1,278 890 716 1,076

215,958 27,382 3,900 12,086 8,092 24,036 27,298 6,673 12,815 17,371 16,319 10,354 7,776 9,842 10,683 9,257 5,531 6,542

330,451 41,899 5,968 18,494 12,382 36,779 41,770 10,211 19,609 26,581 24,970 15,843 11,899 15,061 16,346 14,165 8,463 10,011

Total Incremental Needs

546,408 69,281 9,868 30,580 20,474 60,816 69,067 16,884 32,424 43,952 41,289 26,197 19,675 24,903 27,029 23,422 13,994 16,553

572,388 77,154 10,057 31,490 21,030 62,936 72,054 17,406 33,672 45,648 42,774 27,039 20,243 25,928 28,307 24,312 14,710 17,629

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Total Needs As of 31. 2007

1,845,783 463,016 19,313 76,062 48,317 166,866 218,459 42,952 94,833 128,765 115,582 68,325 48,099 76,148 90,947 67,933 49,784 70,382

Incremental Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2008-2010) Total HHs

Accumulated Needs

Homeless

2008 PHILIPPIN 17,827,060 NCR 2,489,349 CAR 307,933 970,477 Ilocos Reg 647,130 Cagayan V Central Luz 1,945,590 Calabarzon 2,238,534 Mimaropa 536,783 Bicol Regio 1,043,166 Western Vi 1,414,261 Central Vis 1,323,186 834,537 Eastern Vis 623,548 Zamboang Northern M 804,510 881,477 Davao Reg 752,968 Soccsksarg Caraga 459,081 ARMM 554,529

(as of January 1, 2008) Dilapidate Informal DoubledTotal d/ Up AccumuCondemn Household lated ed s in Needs +Marginal Acceptabl e Units

Incremental Accumulated Needs

Homeless

249 167 2 4 4 13 22 2 6 3 8 3 2 5 3 3 2 2

Future Needs

(January 2-December 31, 2008) Dilapidate Informa Doubled- Increment Inventory Projected al Accumu- Losses d/ Up No. of Condemn Household lated New HHs ed s in Needs that can l+Marginal Acceptabl afford to e Units buy/rent 2,809 458 18 85 90 209 228 65 270 294 215 180 112 125 156 121 79 105

14,832 4,617 80 291 242 1,220 1,940 349 757 993 927 506 292 548 800 533 493 242

8,620 2,791 93 548 232 722 858 116 240 441 366 171 174 368 346 251 156 749

26,509 8,033 193 928 568 2,164 3,048 532 1,273 1,730 1,516 859 580 1,045 1,304 908 730 1,098

220,364 27,941 3,980 12,333 8,257 24,527 27,855 6,809 13,076 17,726 16,651 10,565 7,935 10,043 10,901 9,446 5,644 6,676

337,194 42,754 6,090 18,871 12,635 37,530 42,622 10,419 20,009 27,123 25,480 16,167 12,142 15,368 16,680 14,454 8,636 10,215

Total Incremental Needs

Total Needs (from 2007 to 2008)

Total Future Needs

557,557 70,695 10,069 31,204 20,891 62,056 70,477 17,229 33,086 44,849 42,131 26,732 20,076 25,411 27,580 23,900 14,280 16,891

584,067 78,728 10,262 32,132 21,460 64,220 73,525 17,761 34,359 46,579 43,647 27,591 20,656 26,457 28,884 24,808 15,010 17,989

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2,429,850 541,744 29,575 108,195 69,776 231,086 291,984 60,713 129,192 175,344 159,229 95,916 68,755 102,605 119,831 92,740 64,793 88,371

Incremental Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2008-2010) continued Total HHs

Accumulated Needs

Homeless

2009 PHILIPPIN NCR CAR Ilocos Reg Cagayan V Central Luz Calabarzon Mimaropa Bicol Regio Western Vi Central Vis Eastern Vis Zamboanga Northern M Davao Reg Soccsksarg Caraga ARMM

18,190,763 2,540,136 314,215 990,276 660,333 1,985,283 2,284,204 547,734 1,064,449 1,443,114 1,350,182 851,563 636,270 820,923 899,461 768,330 468,447 565,842

(as of January 1, 2009) Dilapidate Informal DoubledTotal d/ Up AccumuCondemn Household lated ed s in Needs +Marginal Acceptabl e Units

Incremental Accumulated Needs

Homeless

254 170 2 4 4 13 22 2 6 3 8 3 2 5 3 3 2 2

Future Needs

(January 2-December 31, 2009) Dilapidate Informa Doubled- Increment Inventory Projected No. of d/ Up al Accumu- Losses lated New HHs Condemn Household Needs that can ed s in l+Marginal Acceptabl afford to buy/rent e Units 2,866 467 18 87 92 213 232 66 276 300 220 184 115 128 159 123 80 107

15,134 4,712 82 297 247 1,245 1,980 356 773 1,013 946 516 298 559 816 544 503 247

8,796 2,848 95 559 236 737 876 118 245 450 373 174 177 376 353 257 159 765

27,050 8,197 197 947 580 2,208 3,110 543 1,299 1,766 1,547 877 592 1,067 1,331 927 745 1,121

224,859 28,511 4,061 12,585 8,425 25,027 28,423 6,948 13,343 18,087 16,991 10,781 8,097 10,248 11,123 9,639 5,759 6,812

344,072 43,626 6,214 19,256 12,892 38,295 43,492 10,632 20,417 27,676 25,999 16,496 12,389 15,681 17,020 14,749 8,812 10,424

Total Incremental Needs

Total Needs (from 2007 to 2009)

Total Future Needs

568,931 72,137 10,275 31,841 21,318 63,322 71,914 17,580 33,761 45,763 42,991 27,277 20,486 25,930 28,143 24,387 14,571 17,236

595,981 80,334 10,471 32,788 21,897 65,530 75,024 18,123 35,060 47,529 44,537 28,154 21,078 26,996 29,473 25,314 15,316 35,592

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3,025,831 622,078 40,047 140,983 91,673 296,616 367,008 78,836 164,252 222,873 203,766 124,070 89,833 129,601 149,304 118,054 80,109 123,963

Incremental Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2008-2010) continued Total HHs

Accumulated Needs

Homeless

2010 PHILIPPIN 18,561,885 NCR 2,591,959 CAR 320,626 Ilocos Reg 1,010,479 673,805 Cagayan V Central Luz 2,025,786 Calabarzon 2,330,806 Mimaropa 558,909 Bicol Regio 1,086,165 Western Vi 1,472,556 Central Vis 1,377,728 868,937 Eastern Vis 649,251 Zamboang 837,671 Northern M 917,811 Davao Reg 784,005 Soccsksarg Caraga 478,004 ARMM 577,387

(as of January 1, 2010) Dilapidate Informal DoubledTotal d/ Up AccumuCondemn Household lated ed s in Needs +Marginal Acceptabl e Units

Incremental Accumulated Needs

Homeless

259 174 2 4 4 13 23 2 6 3 8 3 2 5 3 3 3 2

Future Needs

(January 2-December 31, 2010) Dilapidate Informa Doubled- Increment Inventory Projected No. of d/ Up al Accumu- Losses lated New HHs Condemn Household Needs that can ed s in l+Marginal Acceptabl afford to buy/rent e Units 2,925 477 19 88 94 217 237 67 281 306 224 187 117 130 162 126 82 109

15,443 4,808 83 303 252 1,270 2,020 364 789 1,034 965 527 304 570 833 555 514 252

8,976 2,906 97 571 241 752 894 121 250 459 381 178 181 383 360 262 162 780

27,602 8,364 201 966 591 2,253 3,173 554 1,326 1,802 1,578 895 604 1,089 1,358 946 760 1,143

229,447 29,093 4,144 12,841 8,597 25,538 29,003 7,090 13,615 18,456 17,338 11,001 8,262 10,457 11,350 9,835 5,876 6,951

351,092 44,516 6,341 19,649 13,155 39,077 44,379 10,849 20,834 28,241 26,530 16,833 12,642 16,001 17,367 15,050 8,992 10,636

Total Incremental Needs

Total Needs (from 2007 to 2010)

Total Future Needs

580,539 73,609 10,484 32,491 21,753 64,614 73,382 17,939 34,449 46,697 43,868 27,834 20,904 26,459 28,717 24,885 14,868 17,587

608,141 81,973 10,685 33,457 22,344 66,867 76,555 18,493 35,775 48,499 45,446 28,728 21,508 27,547 30,075 25,830 15,628 18,731

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3,633,972 704,051 50,732 174,439 114,017 363,483 443,563 97,328 200,027 271,372 249,212 152,799 111,341 157,148 179,379 143,884 95,738 142,694

References: 1. Final Technical Report of the research project “Development of Shelter Monitoring and Information System” 2. Medium Term Philippine Development Plans. 1987-1992, 1993-1998, 1999-2004, 20052010, National Economic Development Authority 3. “Methods of Estimating Housing Needs”. Studies in Methods Series F. No. 12, United Nations, New York, 1967. 4. “Housing Needs in the Philippines 1970-2000 Projections.” Monograph No. 18, National Census and Statistics Office (NCSO now NSO), 1979 5. “Guidelines for the Preparation of Local Shelter Plans.” Housing and Urban Development and Coordinating Council, United Nations Centre for Human Settlements, Government of Finland, June 1994 6. Census of Population and Housing 2000, National Statistics Office 7. Population Census 2007, National Statistics Office

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