Ihs Janes Fighting Ships Executive Summary 2012

Image: US Navy 2012

IHS Jane’s Fighting Ships Executive Summary 2012 Commodore Stephen Saunders

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IHS Jane’s Fighting Ships Executive Summary 2012

Contents

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................3 United States and Canada..........................................................................................................4 China ..........................................................................................................................................6 United Kingdom .........................................................................................................................9 Europe and the Mediterranean .............................................................................................. 11 Russia ...................................................................................................................................... 14 Indian Ocean and the Gulf ...................................................................................................... 16 East Asia and Australasia ........................................................................................................ 19 Latin America .......................................................................................................................... 23 Conclusion............................................................................................................................... 25 About IHS ................................................................................................................................ 26

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IHS Jane’s Fighting Ships Executive Summary 2012

Introduction The new United States Defense Strategy, announced by President Obama on 5 January 2012, represents a significant break from the past. The new focus is to be on Asia-Pacific, rather than on Europe, the requirement to fight two regional wars simultaneously has been abandoned and, while global presence is to be maintained, the key characteristics of future forces are to be agility and flexibility; prolonged, large-scale, stability operations are no longer envisaged. The new approach also emphases the importance of working with allies while also developing new partnerships, particularly with India. This reflects not only the implicit recognition that the United States can no longer afford to go it alone, but also that US economic and security interests are (and should be) shared by friendly nations. These include the maintenance of security in the Gulf Region; the fight against terrorism; curbing the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction; the rising military power of China and the development of nuclear weapons by Iran and North Korea. For Europe, beset by serious economic problems, all of this is happening at a bad moment even if it cannot have come as a surprise. Long-standing US frustration with Europe’s unwillingness to pull its weight was possibly a contributory factor to the change in US policy, but the overriding reason is that Europe no longer faces the existential threat, once posed by the Soviet Union, that led to the establishment of NATO. Tellingly, the new Defense Strategy cites most European countries as being “producers of security rather than consumers of it”. Whether Europe faces up to the challenge of defending itself and contributing to global security remains to be seen. In an address to the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs on 23 April 2012, NATO Secretary-General Anders Rasmussen highlighted that while the Libyan operation demonstrated the willingness of European nations to take a lead, too much reliance had been placed on American enabling capabilities such as intelligence, cruise missiles and air-to-air refuelling. His solution of Smart Defence, the increased pooling and sharing of resources rather than the pursuit of individual national solutions, is not a new proposition but will have greater resonance now that the old days are formally over. Difficult decisions lie ahead because, although the United States has emphasised its continuing commitment to Europe, it has stressed that the relationship must ‘evolve’. For Europe to ignore such a clear ‘wake-up call’ would be to risk not only the future of NATO but also a decrease in influence and relevance of EU nations in an increasingly multi-polar world.

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United States and Canada Against a background of the new Defense Strategy and the fourth major drawdown of defense spending since the Second World War, the US Navy and US Marine Corps have fared relatively well compared with the other services. “The world is not getting any more peaceful,” as General Amos, Commandant of the Marine Corps, remarked at a Sea-Air-Space Exposition panel on 16 April 2012, and the spectrum of expected future security requirements plays well to the strengths of the two maritime services as ‘first responders’ to a crisis. This view of the world was strongly emphasised by Under Secretary of State of the Navy Robert Work when, at a subsequent panel, he declared that “the 21st Century is to be a naval century”. The shift in focus towards the Asia-Pacific and Middle-East regions is formal recognition of a process that has clearly been underway for several years. In early 2012, about half of the hundred ships deployed overseas were based in the western Pacific and, when the rebalancing exercise is completed, some 60 per cent of the US Navy will be based on the west coast. The US Navy leadership has good reason to be relatively optimistic about the future but further uncertainty could lie ahead if sequestration measures, involving across-the-board public spending cuts of some eight per cent, are triggered. The Budget Control Act of August 2011 requires this to take effect in January 2013 if debt reduction legislation is not agreed by Congress. The Defense budget request for Fiscal Year 2013 (FY13) required the US Navy to make reductions but no major programmes were severely truncated or cancelled. Fleet size is to amount to 284 in FY13 decreasing to about 280 ships by the end of the five-year Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP). The force of 11 aircraft carriers and their associated 10 air wings is to be maintained although the construction schedule of the future John F Kennedy (CVN 79) is to be lengthened by two years to achieve a new commissioning date of 2022. The current force of nine big-deck amphibious ships is also to be maintained. The first of a new class, America (LHA 6), is to be launched in 2012, construction of Tripoli (LHA 7) is to start in 2013 and of LHA 8 in 2017. However, two Amphibious Dock Landing Ships, Whidbey Island (LSD 41) and Tortuga (LSD 46) are to be decommissioned during the FYDP and the remaining ships of the class are to be retired before the end of their service lives. The Joint High Speed Vessel (JHSV) programme is also to be reduced. At one time, 23 of these vessels were to be acquired but construction is now to stop after delivery of the tenth ship. The most significant cuts are to be made to the Ticonderoga-class cruiser force. Seven ships, approximately one third of those still in service, are to be retired.

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Cowpens (CG 63), Anzio (CG 68), Vicksburg (CG 69) and Port Royal (CG 73) are to be decommissioned in FY13 while Gettysburg (CG 64), Chosin (CG 65) and USS Hue City are to follow in FY14. None of these ships, except Port Royal, had been upgraded with ballistic-missile defense capabilities. However, construction of the three-ship Zumwalt (DDG 1000)-class destroyers is to continue with the first of class due to be commissioned in 2015 and the two successor ships, Michael Monsoor and Lyndon B Johnson, following at two-year intervals thereafter. The Arleigh Burke (DDG 51) Flight IIA programme has also been preserved. Following curtailment of the DDG 1000 programme, four new ships (DDG 113-116) have been ordered and a further six ships are expected before the first Flight III ship is ordered. These are likely to be larger than their predecessors, although no details have been published, in order to incorporate the Air and Missile Defence Radar (AMDR) which is to replace the current SPY-1D installation. It is notable that, despite an overall shift in US policy focus to the Pacific Region, four Flight II Arleigh Burkes are to be forward stationed at Rota, Spain from 2014. Forward deployment is also to be a feature of the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) whose 55-ship programme, despite some slippage, remains largely unaffected. Freedom (LCS 1) is to conduct a 10-month proof of concept deployment to Singapore during 2012. One of the most interesting developments to arise from the new strategy was the decision to ‘fast-track’ the conversion of USS Ponce, an Austin-class amphibious ship that had been slated for decommissioning, into an Afloat Forward Staging Base (AFSB) to support mine-sweeping MH-53 Sea Dragon helicopters and patrol craft. The ship is to be based in the Gulf from mid-2012 and is to be operated jointly by active-duty Navy officers and sailors, as well as civilian mariners from Military Sealift Command. There has been speculation that the ship is to act as a ‘commando mothership’ for helicopters and high-speed craft operated by Navy SEALs and other special operations forces. This has been officially denied and it would not in any case be sensible to concentrate such forces in one ship. The Submarine Force emerged relatively unscathed from the budget process. Procurement of the future sea-based deterrent, replacement of the Ohio-class SSBNs, is to be delayed from 2019 to 2021 and Virginia class procurement was reduced in the five-year FYDP from 10 SSNs to nine. There are no plans to replace the Ohio-class SSGNs on a like-for-like basis when they reach the end of their operational lives. However, the importance of their cruise-missile carrying capability was well demonstrated by Florida which fired some 90 Tomahawk missiles in support of operations in Libya in 2011. The most promising option to replace SSGN capability is to modify the Virginia-class hull to incorporate a 29 m payload section,

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known as the Virginia Payload Module (VPM). The VPM would include four in-line missile tubes, each accommodating seven Tomahawk cruise missiles or a variety of other payloads. If this approach is adopted, VPMs could be brought into service in the projected 10 Block V Virginia class (SSN 801-810), which commence building in 2019. The Royal Canadian Navy’s submarine flotilla has had a difficult 10 years since the Victoria (former Upholder)-class submarines were purchased from the United Kingdom. However, a major milestone was reached in March 2012 when Victoria, which returned to the Pacific Fleet on completion of an Extended Docking Work Period (EDWP) in 2011, conducted a firing of an exercise version of the Mk 48 torpedo. Meanwhile, Windsor is to emerge from her EDWP at Halifax in 2012 and is likely to return to Atlantic Fleet as an operational unit in 2013 while Chicoutimi, which suffered a serious fire in October 2004, is also to return to service after repairs and EDWP at Esquimault in 2013. She is to be followed by Corner Brook which has been at long readiness since running aground during exercises off Vancouver Island in June 2011. Unsurprisingly, the chequered history of this class has attracted close scrutiny and has even called into question the requirement for a submarine capability. It is against this background that Canadian planners are beginning to look at their replacement in about 2030. Nuclear power has almost certainly been ruled out on cost grounds although this is what the Canadian Navy really needs to conduct surveillance of Canada’s enormous coastline and to deal with potential sovereignty issues in the Arctic region. Failing that, air-independent propulsion is likely to be the preferred option. Following decisions on the National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy (NSPS), the way is now clear for the long delayed Joint Support Ship (JSS) programme to be progressed. Seaspan Shipyards, British Colombia, was selected as the shipyard to build the JSS (and other non-combatant ships) and contracts for the build and inservice support of the ships are expected in late 2012. Design options include the German Berlin class and a Canadian new design. Meanwhile, plans to establish a Standing Contingency Force have not been entirely discounted. Proof of concept exercises were undertaken in USS Gunston Hall in November 2006 and the lessons of disaster-relief operations following the earthquake in Haiti in 2010 have reinforced the requirement for such ships to deliver humanitarian aid. China

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Almost 10 years after ex-Varyag was towed through the Bosporus on her way to Dalian, the carrier finally departed for her first set of sea trials on 10 August 2011. The completion and activation of this vessel has been a complex and difficult task which, although details have been sparse, has probably taken much longer than originally planned. It is to the credit of those concerned that the project has reached this significant milestone and the lessons learned will have benefitted the follow-on indigenous carrier programme, expected to start in the next few years. The first set of sea trials, which presumably involved the testing of main machinery, lasted for four days before the ship returned to Dalian. A further docking period was then undertaken; suggesting that remedial work on underwater fittings and/or shafts was required. Opportunity was also taken to repaint the flight deck. Subsequently, the ship left port on 29 November 2011 for a second round of sea trials which were completed on 11 December. Remarkably, DigitalGlobe satellite imagery managed to ‘capture’ the ship at sea, perhaps the first time that non-military sensors have been used in such a timely manner. The ship is now poised to take the next steps towards becoming an operational aircraft carrier, a process that is likely to be every bit as challenging as getting the ship to sea. As of early 2012, the main deficiency in flight deck equipment was the absence of the four arrestor wires required for the ship’s Short Take-Off But Arrested Recovery (STOBAR) configuration. Reportedly, efforts to procure the equipment from Russia had been frustrated by a dispute over the Shenyang J-15 aircraft, which Russia has alleged is an unlicensed copy of the Su-33. It is assumed that the wires will now be manufactured domestically. However, the carrier-borne aircraft programme has been making progress; the sighting of specialised test markings on the fuselage of a J-15 at the China Flight Test Establishment (CFTE) at Yan Liang air base in Xian suggest that the accurate measurement of aircraft performance characteristics and the calibration of landing instruments is underway. The test site also appears to have a copy of ex-Varyag’s bow ramp. Low level passes of the ship were conducted by J-15 pilots during the ship’s second period of sea trials. Although no attempts were made to conduct touch-and-go landings, opportunity was probably taken to check communications interoperability and radar performance. In summary, 2011 was a very significant year in the life of the Chinese carrier project but formidable challenges lie ahead. The safe operation of aircraft at sea, by day and night, demand very high skill levels from all concerned in the ship, on deck and in the air. They are likely to take some years to achieve.

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Significant progress has also been made elsewhere in the surface ship construction programme. A third Yuzhao-class assault ship was launched on 29 September 2011 and a fourth was reported nearing completion in early 2012. It is expected that following the completion of first-of-class trials, these ships will take a leading part in Chinese naval deployments. Clearly, amphibious assault is the operational role for which they were designed but, as other nations have demonstrated, such a vessel also has great utility as a flagship of a task-group, for ‘showing the flag’ and as a platform for the provision of humanitarian aid. Following construction of the first two Type 052C Luyang II-class destroyers in 2004-05, there was a delay of about four years before construction of the third of class began. The reason for the pause is much in keeping with China’s track-record of careful evaluation of a new class, involving in this case the Dragon Eye phased-array radar and HHQ-9 missile system, before beginning series production. It appears that this phase is now firmly underway with the launch of three ships in 2010-11 from the new Jiangnan Shipyard at Changxingdao and evidence that three further ships are to follow in 2012-13. It is likely that the ageing Luda class will be decommissioned as the new ships enter service. Construction of the Type 054A Jiangkai II-class frigates is also proceeding rapidly at two shipyards. By early 2012, nine units had entered service, a further four had been launched and at least two more are expected. These ships are to replace some of the 28 1970s vintage Jianghu class that remain in service but frigate capability is also to be met in part by the new Type 056 corvette. While details of these ships have yet to be confirmed, photographic evidence suggests that construction of the first of class may be underway at Guangzhou’s Huangpu Shipyard. If so, this could be the first of a large class of ships. Much of China’s extensive inventory of coastal patrol ships is old and their small size limits operational utility. It makes sense to consolidate their replacement into a larger, more effective design. The tempo of conventional submarine building activity increased markedly in 2010 and was maintained throughout 2011. By early 2012, eight Yuan-class submarines had been commissioned and a further four had been launched. Most of these were products of Wuhan Shipyard but two have also emerged from Jiangnan Shipyard, suggesting that series production at a second yard is possible. However, there have been no signs yet of further units of the Qing class, the first of which was launched at Wuhan in September 2010. This 92 m boat is considerably larger than the Yuan class and its potential role has been the subject of considerable debate. However, the length (22 m) of the sail and evidence (from photographs of the submarine in dry-dock) that there is an extension at the base of the hull, similar to that seen in

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early Soviet ballistic missile-carrying submarines, suggests a missile-firing role. This points to the conclusion that the boat may be a replacement for the long-serving Golf-class SSB, built in the 1960s, which has been serving as a trials platform for the JL-2 missile. United Kingdom The ink was hardly dry on the US/UK Statement of Intent on Carrier Cooperation and Maritime Power Projection, signed by Secretaries Panetta and Hammond on 5 January 2012, when the UK government decided to revert to the original plan to procure the F-35B STOVL (Short Take-Off/Vertical Landing) variant of the Lockheed Martin Lightning II rather than to persevere with the decision of the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) to procure the F-35C instead. The bilateral carrier accord was signed on the basis that one of the Queen Elizabeth class would be equipped with catapults and arrestor gear to operate the F-35C and that the Royal Navy would benefit from assistance and training from the US Navy to regenerate the necessary skills. Not only does the decision to re-instate the F-35B run contrary to the rationale that underpinned the switch to the F-35C, the ability to inter-operate with American and French allies, it also places the UK government in the uncomfortable situation of being restricted to one aircraft solution. There is no alternative STOVL aircraft and, although the F-35 programme survived recent US budget cuts, concerns about the aircraft and, in particular, rising costs continue to be voiced. An alternative option for the UK, apparently not considered, would have been to stick with ‘cats and traps’ but to abandon the F-35 in favour of the F-18 Super Hornet, a less advanced but well-proven aircraft. Nevertheless, the Royal Navy will be quietly pleased that as plans gather pace for troops in Afghanistan to revert to a supporting role, the requirement for a future carrier-strike capability endures. In addition, the option of operating both carriers, rather than one, remains on the table for review in the 2015 SDSR. For this reason, the F-35B decision is probably right, despite suspicions of poor analysis and an embarrassing volte-face. The year of 2012 is a pivotal year for the Type 45 programme as the first two ships of the class embark on their maiden deployments; Daring to the Gulf and Dauntless to the South Atlantic. For ships that can trace their origins back over 30 years, another three decades of operational life now lie ahead. Meanwhile, it will not be long before all six ships of the class will be available for operations. The third and fourth ships, Diamond and Dragon, have been commissioned while Defender and Duncan

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are to follow in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Equipped with the Sea Viper air-defence system, they are the most capable destroyers ever built for the Royal Navy and compare well with equivalent ships worldwide. Attention is now turning to the Type 26, the next major surface-ship programme. Current plans are for a class of 13 ships of approximately 5,000 tonnes to replace the current Type 23 inventory on a one-for-one basis from 2021. There are likely to be eight Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) and five general purpose variants. The Assessment Phase was launched by a design contract awarded to BAE Ship Systems on 25 March 2010. This is to be followed by a Manufacture Phase submission in mid2013 with a view to starting fabrication of the first of class in 2015. Design features are likely to include a mission payload area while the flight deck is to be capable of operating a Chinook-sized aircraft. The hangar is to be large enough for a Merlin and/or a Lynx plus a Maritime Unmanned Air Vehicle. However, while the hulls are to be new, much of the ships’ equipment will comprise systems that will have already been tried and tested in other ships. The Artisan 3D radar is to start entering service in the Type 23 frigate Iron Duke in 2012 while the Sea Ceptor short-range airdefence missile is to start replacing Sea Wolf in 2016. The aim of reducing technological risk is not only to ease the passage of the new ships into Royal Navy service. The ships are being marketed as a ‘Global Combat Ship’ and, having not exported a frigate since the successful Leander class, there is likely to be a concerted effort to sell the design overseas. The future of the UK naval shipbuilding industry depends on it. The 2010 SDSR confirmed that the Hunt- and Sandown-class Mine Countermeasures (MCM) vessels were to be retained but that the ships, which started service in 1979 and 1989 respectively, would need to be replaced by a programme that also subsumes the requirements for other roles such as hydrography and offshore patrol. Therefore, the Mine countermeasures, Hydrographic and Patrol Craft (MHPC) Project, which is expected to start its Assessment Phase in 2012, could replace four classes: Hunt, Sandown, Echo and River. The resultant ship is likely to be of the order of 3,000 tonnes but will not necessarily look like a traditional warship. Design requirements are likely to be driven by the requirement for long endurance and by the need to deploy a variety of off-board sensors. It has been a better year for the Astute-class submarines following a number of serious setbacks for the first of class. Sea trials were interrupted by a grounding incident off the Isle of Skye on 22 October 2010 and this was followed six months later by a tragic shooting incident while the submarine was alongside in

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Southampton. It is a measure of the mettle of the ship’s company that, subsequently, the boat performed very well in trials both in home waters and off the US. The culmination of these efforts was a successful Tomahawk firing on 8 November 2011. The way is now clear for the boat to become fully operational in 2012, the year in which the second of class Ambush is to start sea trials. Europe and the Mediterranean Against an austere economic background, it is not an auspicious moment for the French President Hollande to review the acquisition of a second aircraft carrier. The prospects for the project have looked increasingly bleak since 2008 when former President Sarkozy suspended co-operation with the UK carrier programme. Whatever the decision, the French Navy can at least be satisfied that the prominent role played by the carrier Charles de Gaulle during NATO’s military operation in Libya not only provided a useful reminder of the flexibility of seaborne air power, but also symbolised France’s role both as a leading European power and as a fully reintegrated (since 2009) Alliance partner. The most important contribution made by the ship and its air group was the ability to respond quickly to the evolving tactical situation, facilitated by the positioning of the ship only 30 minutes flying time from the combat zone. This meant that the majority of the 1,500 missions flown were tactical rather than against fixed infrastructure. Following a maintenance period, the ship sailed from Toulon in March 2012 for a work-up period that is likely to be followed by another deployment to the Indian Ocean and Gulf region. That the ship has been available during this busy period has been fortuitous, but it will not always be the case. The next long (nuclear) refit is due in 2015. The departure of the new frigate Aquitaine on sea trials in April 2011 was an important milestone in the FREMM frigate project. The class, comprising nine antisubmarine and two air-defence variants, is to be delivered over the next 10 years and will provide the backbone of the fleet for many years to come. The first ship is planned to be commissioned in 2013 and, following the launch of Mohammed VI for Morocco in 2012, the second French ship, Normandie, is expected to enter the water in October 2012. A further important achievement in 2012 was the completion of class deck-landing trials by the new NH90 Caiman helicopter. Another major programme, construction of the third Mistral-class amphibious assault ship Dixmude, also reached fruition when the ship started sea trials in April 2011. She replaces the landing ship dock Foudre which has been sold to Chile and renamed Sargento Aldea. Progress has also been made in the project for new

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landing craft to be operated from the Mistral class. The L-Cat craft are of aluminium construction with a catamaran design and bow and stern ramps; the height of the pontoon deck can be adjusted to meet requirements for transit, beaching or docking. Two craft were completed in 2011 and a total of eight is expected. Germany’s decision not to take part in Libyan operations was understandable in view of its historical reluctance to get involved in military combat abroad. However, in hindsight, it was perhaps a missed opportunity to earn the kudos from what proved to be a successful, European-led NATO operation. For example, it would have been easy and relatively risk free to have committed submarines to intelligence gathering, a task for which the current force of four boats, equipped with airindependent propulsion, is well suited. The submarine inventory is to be augmented in the next two years by two Batch II Type 212A boats, the first of which (U35) was launched on 15 November 2011; a second is planned to follow in mid-2012. However, if no further boats are ordered, the German submarine industry will be in the uncomfortable position of having to rely on exports and the refit of earlier classes in service around the world to survive. It was ironic, given German hesitation to get involved, that the first of a new class of frigates, Baden-Württemberg, was laid down on 2 November 2011. The class of four ships was specifically designed with long-endurance crisis management operations in mind and design features include the ability to host and deploy special forces and the capability to conduct naval gunfire support. A class of four ships is to enter service by 2018. Meanwhile, the Brandenburg-class frigates are undergoing a major modernisation programme to extend their service lives to at least 30 years. The principal upgrade is replacement of the combat data system by Thales SABRINA 21. In contrast, the lives of the eight Bremen class, the workhorses of the fleet, are not to be extended beyond 30 years. Köln is to be decommissioned in 2012 and the rest of the class by 2019. By that time, the principal units of the German Navy will amount to six submarines and 11 frigates. It is perhaps for this reason that there has been a reappraisal of future requirements. The K 131 corvette programme was initially seen as a follow-on to the K 130 Braunschweig-class corvettes that are now entering service after undergoing remedial work. The programme has now been recast as the Multi-Role Combat Ship (MKS 180) and design features are likely to include a mission bay for warfare modules. All in all, the ship is now likely to look less like a corvette and more like a frigate. The transition of the Royal Netherlands Navy took several steps forward during 2011 as progress was made in several key programmes. The Navy is in the process of

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rebalancing what was a frigate-heavy force into one that is capable of undertaking overseas intervention operations, better suited to conducting a range of lowintensity tasks, such as maritime interdiction and humanitarian assistance, and capable of making a national contribution to NATO’s ballistic missile defence capability. The new joint logistic support ship Karel Doorman was laid down on 7 June 2011 and is to be much more than a replacement for Amsterdam when she enters service in 2014. In addition to the maritime logistic support task, the ship is to be capable of strategic sealift, the operation of up to Chinook-sized helicopters and the provision of NATO Role 3 medical facilities. Together with the landing ships Rotterdam and Johan de Witt, she will form the centrepiece of the Netherlands’ power projection force. Plans to upgrade the SMART-L radar in four air-defence frigates (De Zeven Provincien class) were announced in September 2011. The extended long-range mode, to be installed from 2017, will enable a ballistic missile detect and track capability. No decision has yet been made on the acquisition of Standard SM-3, although this may be awaiting development of the Block II missile. The first two of four Holland-class patrol ships were delivered in 2011. Although described as offshore patrol ships they are, at just under 4,000 tonnes, capable ships whose design features include a multifunction space beneath the flight deck for the stowage of two containers and a stern slipway for the launch and recovery of a 12 m Rigid Hull Inflatable Boat (RHIB). They are the first ships to be equipped with the Thales integrated mast. The Italian Navy is facing several difficult years after austerity measures, instituted by Prime Minister Mario Monti’s ‘technocrat’ cabinet, begin to bite. One of the early actions of the new Defence Minister, former Defence Chief Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola was to cut its planned total of F-35A and B aircraft for the Air Force and Navy respectively from 131 to 90. The F35B variants are to replace the Navy’s AV-8B Harrier IIs which were last deployed in action over Libya from the carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi. Other ships involved in this operation were the frigate Libecchio and the destroyer Andrea Doria which conducted air-defence patrols off the coast of Sicily. Libecchio is one of the four Maestrale class to have been upgraded in the last five years but the remaining four are to be decommissioned as the Bergamini class enter service from 2014. The FREMM frigate programme achieved a major milestone on 8 October 2011 when first of class Carlo Bergamini started sea trials but, although the government has already committed to the construction of six ships, there must now be doubts as to whether the remaining four will survive budget cuts. There are doubts also about the procurement of a new class of assault ships to replace the San Giorgio class. A one-year design contract was to have been the first step in the acquisition process but the programme appears to have been placed on hold.

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Similarly, plans for a new class of corvette, or offshore patrol ship, appear to have been delayed. The only good news in an otherwise bleak outlook is that plans for a new underwater support ship, capable of conducting submarine rescue operations to depths of 600 m, is to be procured. Entry into service is expected in 2014. Spain is not a formal participant in the F-35 programme but is understood to have held discussions with a view to replacing the inventory of EAV-8B aircraft that are capable of operating from the carrier Príncipe de Asturias and the new LHD Juan Carlos I. The prospects certainly look brighter after US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta lifted a probation order on the F-35B STOVL variant. In any case, the Spanish Navy is in the difficult position of not having any alternatives from which to choose. However, in other respects the Spanish Navy is in a relatively good position. The S80 submarine construction programme is in progress, sea trials of the fifth Alvaro de Bazán-class air-defence frigates began in March 2012, Juan Carlos I has entered service and the third of a new class of offshore patrol vessels, Relámpago was commissioned in February 2012. The major programme that could be affected by funding difficulties is for a new class of F-110-class frigates to replace the six Santa Maria class, which reach their 30th birthdays from 2016. Current thinking points towards a 4,000-tonne ship which, in capability terms, falls somewhere between a frigate and an offshore patrol ship. However, as entry into service is not expected until the 2020s, the Santa Maria class will have to soldier on for a few more years yet. Despite concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme, Israel’s armed services face domestic funding battles as the Defense Ministry, which historically has been granted relative autonomy in making procurement decisions, tries to resist calls for greater transparency and accountability. An early casualty of this debate has been the plan to procure additional corvettes to supplement the Sa’ar 5 class. The programme has gone through a number of iterations since its inception in 2003. Plans for a Sa’ar 5+ were superseded by a variant of the US Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship and most recently by the German MEKO A-100 corvettes. However, it now looks as if the project has been considerably reduced in scope; the plan is now to order two new smaller Sa’ar 4.5-class missile corvettes. Russia The Bulava ballistic missile programme has had a chequered history but following two successful firings from the trials platform Dmitriy Donskoy in October 2010, four successful firings were conducted from the operational platform Yuri Dolgoruky in

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June, August, October and December 2011. The concluding test was a salvo aimed at targets on the Kura test range in Kamchatka and the way is now clear for the submarine to enter full service as an operational SSBN in mid-2012. Although it was expected that she would enter service in the Pacific Fleet, where replacement of the last three remaining Delta IIIs is a pressing matter, it may be considered prudent to retain her in the Northern Fleet, close to the shipyard in which she was built. It will also be necessary to re-assess the SSBN plot as a result of the serious fire on board the Delta IV Ekaterinburg on 29 December 2011; repairs may not be completed until 2014. The incident took place while the submarine was in a floating dry dock at Roslyakovo near Severomorsk. It appears that the fire was caused by sparks from welding that first ignited wooden scaffolding and subsequently spread to the rubber anechoic tiles that surround the hull. Alarmingly, it has emerged that standard safety practices, the removal of torpedoes and ballistic missiles before entering dock, were either ignored or disobeyed. Although a catastrophe was avoided, such a high-risk approach deserves an explanation although it is doubtful whether it would ever be made public. A further downstream affect is that some Delta IVs may transfer to the Pacific once they have been converted to fire the Liner missile, an advanced version of the Sineva system. An announcement in February 2012 by the then Commander-in-Chief Admiral Vysotsky confirmed what had been suspected for some time: Saint Petersburg, the first of the Lada-class submarines, is not to be commissioned and work on two subsequent boats, Kronshtadt and Sevastopol, is to be abandoned. The Lada class and its export version Amur were to have been the successors to the successful but now ageing Kilo class; however, it became clear in recent years that trials of the first of class, which started in 2005, were not proceeding well as rumours of problems with the sonar and with the propulsion system began to emerge. The re-starting of the Kilo class building line at Admiralty Shipyards was also a clear indicator of Lada class difficulties; six modified Type 636 are to be built by 2016 including Novorossiysk (laid down in 2010) and Rostov na Donu (2011). However, while this may be a pragmatic interim solution, the Russian Navy is still faced with the challenge of developing a new class of sophisticated diesel boats that are comparable to modern submarines around the world. Meanwhile Severodvinsk, the first of a new class of Yasen-class attack submarines began sea trials in September 2011. Both the Udaloy and Sovremenny classes have been the workhorses of the fleet for many years but they are now nearing the end of their operational lives. The successor major warship class is expected to be Project 21956, plans for which were

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confirmed by Admiral Vysotsky in 2011. While details have not been formally released, the new ship is expected to be of the order of 9,000 tonnes and to be equipped with land-attack, anti-surface and air-defence missiles. The latter could be Redut-Poliment, the first installation of which is in the second of the Steregushchiy (Project 20380)-class frigates, Soobrazitelny. It is also possible that the new class may feature the longer range Krepost missile. The first of what could be a class of 16 is expected to be laid down in 2012, although this is likely to depend on the choice of missile system. Progress is also being made in modernising the frigate force. Admiral Gorshkov, the first of the Project 22350 class, is expected to be commissioned in 2012 at about the same time that the second ship, Admiral Kasatonov, is launched. Production of the smaller Steregushchiy class has also received a boost: the sixth ship, Provorny, was laid down on 26 May 2011 and the seventh, Gremyashchy followed on 1 February 2012. The size and shape of Russia’s amphibious forces is to be transformed by the acquisition of Mistral-class assault ships. The contract for the construction of two ships, to be named Vladivostok and Sevastopol, was finalised on 17 June 2011. Both ships are to be built in France with the option to build two further units in Russia, subject to the satisfactory completion of negotiations. In anticipation, it was reported in December 2011 that Baltic Shipyard, St Petersburg, had been contracted to manufacture some modules. The ships are to be similar to those in service in the French Navy but modified to accommodate twin-rotor helicopters including the Ka52K, a navalised variant of the Alligator attack helicopter. Indian Ocean and the Gulf After high expectations, 2011 proved to be a frustrating year for the Indian Navy as delays were experienced in most of its flagship programmes. Sea trials of the aircraft carrier Vikramaditya had been expected to start in the last quarter of 2011 but, when the time came, it became clear that there was to be yet another postponement until 2012. Assuming that the trials proceed satisfactorily, the plan is now to conduct a formal handover of the ship on Indian Navy Day, 4 December 2012. It would certainly be extremely embarrassing if this new timetable was not to be met. This date will of course only mark the beginning of the transition to becoming a fully operational carrier – a process that is expected to take about a year. Building of India’s Indigenous Aircraft Carrier, probably to be named Vikrant, has also experienced delays, if not on the same scale of Vikramaditya. It had been hoped that the use of modular construction methods would speed the manufacturing process but progress was thwarted initially by a lack of supply of

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carrier-grade steel and subsequently, in 2011, by a delay to the supply of main gearboxes. These have to be installed before assembly of modules at higher levels in the ship can continue. The ship had only reached about 14,000 tonnes before being ‘technically floated out’ on 29 December 2011 to make the dry dock available for commercial work. Further work on the interior of the ship will continue during 2012 but it will require a return to the dry dock to install the gearboxes and other heavy machinery. Formal launch of the ship is not expected until 2013. The best part of a decade has passed since construction of three Kolkata-class destroyers began at Mazagon Dock. All three ships entered the water 2006-10 since when there has been something of a logjam at the shipyard as work on the vessels was progressed. It now looks as if the first of the new class, Kolkata, will begin sea trials in 2012 with commissioning to take place the following year. The other two ships are expected to follow at one-year intervals. This programme exemplifies the on-going dilemma for the Indian Navy – the inability of warship builders to deliver the ships that the service needs. It was with this in mind that the Indian government has sought to increase capacity by involving private shipyards in the building of warships although, unsurprisingly, this has proved to be a contentious issue. Partnership between Mazagon Dock and Pipavav was approved in May 2012 but it may take some time before this and other tie-ups can be finalised. Until then, future projects remain ‘on-hold’. These include Project 15B, the building of four follow-on ships to the Kolkata class, Project 17A for seven frigates to follow the Shivalik class and Project 75I for six conventional submarines to the follow the Scorpene class, a programme which itself appears to be making very slow progress. It is not surprising that India still looks to Russia to help build its fleet. Teg, the first of a second batch of Talwar-class frigates began sea trials in October 2011 and is expected to join the fleet in 2012. Tarkash and Trikand are expected to follow at about six-monthly intervals thereafter. Slow progress in building the submarine force also continues to frustrate Indian naval plans. In 1999, a 30-year plan for the construction of 24 boats in India was approved by the cabinet. However, at the current rate of progress, only six are likely to have been built by 2020, some two-thirds of the way through the period. Meanwhile, six older submarines are likely to have been decommissioned. The Scorpene-class programme has been beset by time and cost overruns and, to avoid a repetition of this experience, there must be a case for extending the numbers of this class until some stability in overall submarine numbers has been reached. It would also give more breathing space to ensure that Project 75I gets off to a smooth start. On a positive note, the nuclear submarine Chakra (ex-Nerpa), on lease from the

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Russian Navy for 10 years, finally arrived at Vishakhapatnam in March 2012. More of such boats are going to be required to protect the nascent ballistic missile submarine force. The first of these boats, Arihant, was launched in 2009 and sea trials are expected to start in 2012. In Pakistan, the fourth Sword-class frigate Aslat, under construction at Karachi Shipyard, was launched on 17 June 2011 and is expected to enter service in 2012. It is not yet known whether there are to be further vessels of this class, built in Pakistan, or whether a new class of frigate is to be procured. Options include the Chinese Jiangkai class and, following the formal induction of Alamgir (ex-McInerney) into the fleet on 21 July 2011, further transfers of the Oliver Hazard Perry class are also possible. Meanwhile, surface forces have been boosted by the launch in China of Azmat, a 500-tonne missile patrol craft which is probably a development of the Houjian class. A second vessel, Deshmat, is under construction in Karachi. There has been no further progress in the procurement of new submarines although cooperation with the Chinese government, possibly as a joint-development project, remains an intriguing possibility. The visit by US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton to Myanmar in early December 2011, followed by the resumption of diplomatic relations in early 2012, signalled a marked change in US policy towards the country following a series of reforms that included the release of former political prisoner Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest. It remains to be seen to what extent this process will continue but increased participation in international political, economic and military life may be one offshoot of the country’s rehabilitation. Despite many years of isolation, the Myanmar Navy has not stood still and the recent acquisition of frigate-size vessels, including two former Chinese Navy Jianghu class, suggests that more may be seen of what has traditionally been a coastal force. Myanmar has the world’s 10th-largest natural gas reserves, including three major offshore fields and protection of these, and extensive fishing stocks, is likely to be a high priority. The transit of two Iranian warships, the corvette Naghdi and support ship Kharg, to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal on 17 February 2012 hit the headlines but, in the end, it was a case of much ado about nothing. Both ships made a short visit to Tartus in Syria and returned back through the canal on 21 February. The motives of the visit are not entirely clear but it was no doubt to demonstrate solidarity with the Syrian regime; the visit took place almost exactly a year after a similar visit by the frigate Alvand. Meanwhile the Iranian naval construction programme continues. Three further Yono-class midget submarines were commissioned on 26 November

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2011, bringing the total of such craft to 14. At least one further craft is expected. It was also announced on 11 September 2011 that development of a larger 500-tonne medium-size Fateh class was in progress; this may equate to previous reports of a Qaaem class of similar dimensions. Mention was made also of a larger Besat class which may be a programme to replace the Kilo class in due course. The surface fleet is soon to be boosted by a second indigenously built frigate based on the Alvand class. Following the commissioning of Jamaran in early 2010, her sister ship Velayat is likely to be launched at Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea during 2012. She is probably designed to be a counterweight to the increasing size of Russian naval forces in the region. The prominent military role played by the United Arab Emirates was one of the surprising facts to emerge during the aftermath of the 2011 Libyan crisis. Reportedly some 100 strike missions were flown during the campaign while special forces were reportedly active on the ground. While no naval forces were committed on this occasion, it is reasonable to assume that they could be used if the UAE decided to play an influential role in future operations. Given the volatility of the ‘Arab Spring’, and the likely requirement at least for peacekeeping and/or stabilisation forces, this could be sooner rather than later. The largest ship in the UAE inventory is soon to be the corvette Abu Dhabi which was launched by Fincantieri in February 2011 and started sea trials later in the year. There is an option for a second ship. Meanwhile, Ganthoot, the first of two 55 m patrol vessels of the Falaj 2 programme was launched on 23 January 2012. Only three weeks later, Mezyad the fourth of six vessels of the 71 m Baynunah class was launched by Abu Dhabi Ship Building on 15 February 2012. The programme is to be completed in 2014. Enhancement of patrol forces is also in progress. The first missile-armed modified Ghannatha class is expected to be completed by Swede Marine in 2012 while conversion of the 12 existing Ghannathas into mortar and gun-armed variants is in progress. Overall, the upgrade of UAE naval forces is well underway. East Asia and Australasia The transformation of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) took another significant stepforward when on 18 February 2011 Canberra, the first of a new class of two amphibious ships was launched at Ferrol, Spain. During 2012, it is planned to transport the vessel to Australia where the superstructure is to be added and outfitting is to take place. The ship, the largest ever to be operated by the RAN, is to be commissioned in early 2014 while her sister ship Adelaide is to follow two years later. With the capability to deploy over 1,000 troops and their equipment, together

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with up to 150 vehicles, the new ships will become the centrepiece of Australian defence forces and provide future governments not only with increased capabilities to deal with national contingencies but also with the means to become a more influential player in international operations. Amphibious capabilities were also enhanced in 2012 by the acquisition of Choules, the former UK auxiliary landing ship Largs Bay, which had served for only five years in British hands. While the ship lacks a hangar, her design has proved its operational worth and is likely to fulfil Australian requirements for a strategic sealift ship. The opportunity to buy the ship was timely because both former amphibious vessels, Kanimbla and Manoora, had to be decommissioned in 2011 following an assessment that remedial work required to keep them in service was too expensive. It was a sad end for two ships that had given sterling service over 15 years and paved the way for the new shape of the RAN. Elsewhere in the surface fleet, programmes to increase the effectiveness of the frigate force have also passed some important milestones. The upgrade of the Adelaide class reached fruition in June 2011 when Sydney conducted six successful Standard SM-2 Block IIIA missile firings at cruise missile type targets. Having benefitted from the FFG upgrade programme, which involved major improvements to the combat system, the four remaining ships of this class are to provide the navy’s force anti-air warfare capability until the new Hobart-class destroyers start entering operational service. Meanwhile the anti-ship missile defence upgrade of the ANZACclass frigate Perth was completed in 2010. The key element of the upgrade is the installation of the Australian-developed CEAFAR active phased array radar and CEAMOUNT illuminators and, following successful Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) firings in 2011, the rest of the class is to be similarly modified. The ships are to continue in service until they are replaced by a new class of frigate in the mid2020s. Unfortunately, construction of the first of three Hobart-class destroyers is not running so smoothly. It was discovered in October 2010 that the central keel block of the first of class was distorted and required reworking. This was completed in August 2011 but, despite some redistribution of block construction to reduce programme risk, the project appears to have been delayed by about a year. Entry into service of the first of class is now expected in 2015. Project Sea 1000, the programme to acquire 12 new submarines to replace the Collins class is arguably the most ambitious and complex defence project ever to be undertaken in Australia. Therefore, it is not surprising that there is some concern that the requirement for the first of class to enter service in 2025 may not be met; the design and build of a new large diesel submarine could take 15 years. This period

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could be reduced if the less risky approach of selecting an existing design (options include the German Type 214, the French Scorpene and Spanish S80) were to be adopted. This might be combined with a forward basing concept. A third, albeit less likely, option is to buy or lease Virginia-class nuclear submarines from the US. While Australia lacks the supporting nuclear infrastructure and the idea is politically controversial, there would be advantages in buying fewer, reliable submarines that meet the requirement in full. Submarines are also a major issue in Taiwan where, over 10 years after the US pledged to support the acquisition of eight submarines, there have been few signs of progress. Despite reports in early 2012 that the Taiwan government was to make available the necessary funding, the navy is still faced with the original problem of sourcing a suitable design; most submarine-building nations are reluctant to provide help in view of an inevitable political backlash from Beijing. As this is unlikely to change, the most likely option is for the Taiwanese to reverse-engineer the design of the Hai Lung-class boats acquired from the Netherlands in the 1980s and to build the boats in a domestic shipyard. Even if this approach were to be adopted, the lack of the necessary technological expertise and production experience are likely to prove difficult challenges to overcome. In contrast, the long-awaited decision on the way-ahead for the Indonesian future submarine programme was made known by the announcement on 20 December 2011 that Korean company Daewoo Shipbuilding had been awarded a contract to build three new submarines. While details of the boats have not yet been released, it is expected that the submarines are to be slightly larger (1,400 t) and advanced versions of the Chang Bogo class that are in service with the South Korean Navy; they are likely to equate broadly to Type 209/1400-class submarines in service in Brazil, Chile, Greece, South Africa and Turkey. Delivery of all three boats is to be completed by 2018. Recent developments in the surface fleet have included the apparent fitting of SS-N-26 Yakhont missiles in the frigate Oswald Siahaan. A test firing was reportedly carried out in April 2011. It is not known how many missiles have been acquired or whether other ships are to be similarly equipped but, even in small quantities, they represent a significant uplift in capability. However, a more effective targeting capability is required if their full potential is to be realised. In Singapore, Archer, the first of two Västergötland-class submarines to be procured from Sweden arrived at Changi on 18 August 2011. She is to be followed by her sister Swordsman in 2012. Both boats have undergone a significant modernisation package that has included the installation of air-independent propulsion. The

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delivery of Swordsman may conclude what has been almost 17 years close collaboration between Singapore and Sweden on submarine matters. However, it would be surprising if what must by now be a close working relationship is not carried forward to the A26 class, the first of which is to enter Swedish service in 2019. While Singapore is not thought to have any immediate requirement for further submarines, it would be useful to maintain a cadre of submarine design and production expertise. Thoughts will also be turning to the size and shape of the future surface fleet. The Victory-class missile corvettes are currently being upgraded but are likely to be decommissioned in about 2020 when they are 30 years old. The waters around Singapore are well suited to such fast, manoeuverable craft and it is likely that there will be a continuing requirement for these capabilities. It is unlikely that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will implement any changes to policy in his early years at the top; it was made clear soon after he came to power that commitment to the ‘Military First’ policy approach would continue. Uncertainty as to whether the ‘Great Successor’ genuinely believes this is best for the country or whether he is toeing the line of the generals only adds to the level of tension in the region. For South Korea, this means ‘business as usual’ albeit at a high state of readiness. Air defence is a high priority for the navy and it is timely that the third of the powerful KDX-3-class destroyers is scheduled to be commissioned in 2012. At about the same time, details should emerge of the future destroyer class, dubbed KDX-2X, the first of which is to enter service in 2019. Meanwhile, the first of the Incheon-class frigates was launched on 29 April 2011. A further five ships, built at the rate of about one per year, are to comprise the first batch to replace the Ulsan class. Further batches are to replace the two classes of corvettes. An order is also expected for a second Dokdo-class amphibious ship. Finally, details emerged in 2011 of a new 500-tonne midget submarine that could replace the Dolgorae class. Reportedly, five such boats are to be acquired but timescales have not been published. Although it has been a relatively quiet year for the Japanese Navy, there have been a number of significant developments. The first of two new helicopter carriers, larger versions of Hyuga and Ise commissioned in 2009 and 2011 respectively, was laid down at Yokohama on 27 January 2012. Given political sensitivities over the ownership of aircraft carriers, it is not surprising that the Japanese government still perseveres with the fiction that these ships are destroyers. However, as their introduction into service has been relatively uncontroversial, it may now be time to come to terms with the correct terminology. Construction of the Souryu-class submarines, equipped with air-independent propulsion, continues at the rate of

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about one per year while the lives of the older Harushio class are being extended in order to build the overall force level from 16 to over 20 boats. Akizuki, the first of a new class of destroyer was commissioned on 15 March 2012 and she will be followed by the second ship Terazuki which was launched on 15 September 2011. Operationally, the principal out-of-area activity is the rolling deployment of two destroyers for anti-piracy patrols in the Indian Ocean. Latin America It is said that every cloud has a silver lining. The cancellation in September 2010 of a three-ship Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) programme by the government of Trinidad and Tobago was a major setback for the shipbuilder BAE Systems at a time when the ships were in the final stages of completion. Therefore, the announcement in January 2012 that they were to be re-sold to the Brazilian Navy was a very welcome boost for the company in particular and to UK naval exports in general. The first two ships are to be delivered in June and December 2012 and the third is to follow on completion of final setting to work and sea trials in April 2013. The opportunistic acquisition by the Brazilian Navy comes at a key moment as competition to be involved in the PROSUPER (Programa de Obtenção de Meios de Superfície) surface fleet renewal programme gathers pace. The scope of the project encompasses, in the medium term, five frigates of about 6,000 tonnes, five offshore patrol vessels and a logistic support ship. Although it has been stated that the recent OPV procurement is not part of the PROSUPER process, the deal nevertheless places BAE Systems in a favourable position to take a leading role in the development of the future surface fleet. The OPV contract allows for the construction of follow-on ships in Brazil and, if this option were to be pursued, BAE Systems would hope it would pave the way to acquisition of the Type 26 Global Combat Frigate, although it would continue to face formidable opposition from the French and Italian FREMM frigates and from Germany. Looking further ahead, there is an even greater potential prize. The aircraft carrier São Paulo is already nearly 50-years old and the Brazilian Navy is said to be looking for a replacement by 2030. Should HMS Queen Elizabeth prove surplus to UK requirements, Brazil could once again become the beneficiary of decisions made elsewhere. The principal development in Chile over the last year came at the end of 2011 when the former French amphibious ship Foudre was transferred and renamed Sargento Aldea. A CDIC-class landing craft (ex-Rapière) and two smaller CTMs were transferred at the same time. The new ship represents a significant upgrade in

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capability compared with Newport class Valdivia, which was decommissioned in 2011 after 40 years’ service, and is likely to form the centrepiece of future Chilean contributions to international operations and national contingencies. The earthquake and subsequent tsunami of 27 February 2010 is still fresh in the mind. Remarkably, one of the survivors of that disaster was the new survey ship Cabo de Hornos which was due to be launched by the Chilean President on the day that the earthquake struck. The force of the tremor caused the ship to be launched prematurely but after a few minutes afloat, the tsunami swept the ship back on to dry land on the other side of the harbour. In an ingenious salvage operation, the ship was conveyed on self-propelled trailers overland back to the shipyard where she was placed on a submersible pontoon and re-floated on 29 January 2011. Whether the life of the ship will continue to be as eventful after she is commissioned in 2013 remains to be seen, but luck would appear to be on her side. The year of the 30th anniversary of the Falklands War has been marked in Argentina by a government campaign to re-ignite public feeling about sovereignty claims to the islands. In an effort to isolate the islands from the mainland, Falklands flagged vessels have been banned from Argentinian ports, fishing boats operating under Falklands licences have been boarded and there have been threats to commercial flights that cross Argentina’s airspace. It is doubtful whether this approach will bring the British government to the negotiating table, let alone win the hearts and minds of the islanders, and so an atmosphere of tension seems set to prevail, particularly if significant quantities of oil were to be found. The Argentine government has forsworn the use of force to retake the islands, but with defence expenditure (of which the navy receives about a quarter) planned to increase from 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2010 to over 1.0 per cent of GDP by 2015, it is possible that money for some programmes might become available. The submarine San Juan is to rejoin the fleet in 2012 after completing a refit. She is to be followed into dock by her sister boat Santa Cruz which is to undergo a battery change. Reports that the unfinished Santa Fe might be completed, and even that she might be equipped with air-independent propulsion, have surfaced from time to time but there have been no credible reports of progress. There are still plans to procure a multirole vessel but any hopes to acquire the former French amphibious ship Foudre were dashed when the ship was bought by neighbouring Chile. It had been expected that the surface fleet might be boosted in 2011 by a construction contract for four new offshore patrol vessels (Project POM). However, this did not materialise. It is likely, however, that repairs to the Antarctic support ship Almirante Irizar will be completed in 2012 and that the ship will then return to service.

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Conclusion The troubled economic environment looks set to continue as a major factor in the global security environment for the next few years. It has been a major determinant of the new US Defense Strategy, the forging of which has had to recognise that “the balance between available resources and security needs has never been more delicate”. Economic worries have also been the cause of political upheavals. In Europe, more than half of the EU’s member states have changed since the beginning of the debt crisis while the election of François Hollande to the French Presidency means that leadership of all five permanent members of the UN Security Council could have changed in the period 2010-12. President Putin returned to office in Russia in May 2012, President Obama is to contest a presidential election in November 2012 and, in China, a new generation is set to take the reins when Hu Jintao steps down as general secretary of the Communist Party before the end of the year. Political uncertainty is also a feature of the world’s principal hotspots, Iran and North Korea. The new North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be the ‘Great Successor’ but he will be even more anxious to prove himself following the public humiliation of a failed rocket launch during celebrations to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of his grandfather Kim Il-sung. Meanwhile in Iran, presidential elections are scheduled to be held in June 2013 and, following alleged voting irregularities in 2009, internal unrest is a strong possibility. Elsewhere, stability in Afghanistan remains elusive and could yet derail plans for coalition troops to handover combat duties to government forces by 2014. The death of Osama bin Laden and many other senior leaders may have weakened Al-Qaeda but its multinational and loosely networked structure is almost impossible to defeat. Against such a fluid and complex background it has been difficult for many countries, big and small, to decide on what military capabilities are needed, and not needed, to meet the challenges of the next decade or so. Therefore, it is heartening that the United States has concluded, even at a time of acute budgetary pressure, to retain most of its naval and marine forces. They continue to serve as the nation’s primary response to crises and as a reassuring presence worldwide. This Executive Summary has been abridged. The full document is available in IHS Jane’s Fighting Ships.

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