i Ct Material Reference
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Descripción: What Every New & Aspiring Forex Trader Wants To Know... Inside these pages you will find the most compr...
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ICT MATERIAL REFERENCE
Version 1.09 January 06, 2013
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PSYCHOLOGY ICT TRADING PLAN TOP DOWN ANALYSIS (BIAS AND DIRECTION) DETAILED DET AILED TOP DOWN DO WN ANALYSIS ANALYSIS RULES R ULES UNDERSTANDING UNDERST ANDING COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (COT) MARKET PROFILES SUPPORT / RESISTANCE AREAS AREAS OF CONFLUENCE FIBONACCI OTE PATTERNS SESSION TRADING PRICE ACTION HIGH PROBABILITY PRICE PATTERNS TRADING SWINGS ICT TRADING CONCEPTS ICT TRADING METHODS INSIDERS TRADING METHODS PROFESSIONALS USE OF INDICATORS MISC VIDEO NOTES TRADE RULES RISK MANAGEMENT TRADING INSIDE THE RANGE PETER’S ICT VIDEO NOTES ICT TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS TIONS
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PSYCHOLOGY ICT TRADING PLAN TOP DOWN ANALYSIS (BIAS AND DIRECTION) DETAILED DET AILED TOP DOWN DO WN ANALYSIS ANALYSIS RULES R ULES UNDERSTANDING UNDERST ANDING COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (COT) MARKET PROFILES SUPPORT / RESISTANCE AREAS AREAS OF CONFLUENCE FIBONACCI OTE PATTERNS SESSION TRADING PRICE ACTION HIGH PROBABILITY PRICE PATTERNS TRADING SWINGS ICT TRADING CONCEPTS ICT TRADING METHODS INSIDERS TRADING METHODS PROFESSIONALS USE OF INDICATORS MISC VIDEO NOTES TRADE RULES RISK MANAGEMENT TRADING INSIDE THE RANGE PETER’S ICT VIDEO NOTES ICT TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS TIONS
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PSYCHOLOGY Below is basi !sy"olo#y a $ra%er nee%s $o un%ers$an% be&ore be#innin# $o $ra%e' Ensure $"e &ollowin# one!$s are un%ers$oo% an% !lanne% ou$ be&ore $ra%in#( 1' )n%ers$an% $"e asse$ lass you are $ra%in# $ra%in# *i'e' %on+$ %on+$ &ollow 20 !airs !airs a$ one 2' T"in- in%e!en%en$ly in%e!en%en$ly an% use your own analysis analysis *$urn o&& $"e T. T. an% ru/or si$es 3' eelo! an% a%"ere $o $o your !ersonal !ersonal $ra%e !ro&ile an% o/!ressie $ra%e !lan ' )$ilie an% an% e4erise e4erise i/!eable i/!eable e5ui$y /ana#e/en$ /ana#e/en$ *11'78 *11'78 ris- !er $ra%e &or new, 28 &or e4!' 7' on+$ assu/e assu/e $o -now w"ere !rie will #o *i'e' no !re%i$ions, !re%i$ions, se$u! your $ra%es !er your analysis in an$ii!a$ion IF $"e /ar-e$ /oes in your %ire$ion 6' T"in- in $er/s $er/s o& !robabili$y !robabili$y an% no$ absolu$es, $"ere are are no absolu$es absolu$es in $ra%in# Trade like a Sniper Tra%ers w"o learn $o !i- an% "oose $"eir $ra%es li-e a Fore4 9sni!er: are $y!ially $"e ones w"o suee%' suee%' Tra%ers w"o &ail a$ a$ li-e /a"ine#uns by s"oo$in# a$ eery$"in# $"ey see *oer$ra%in# an%;or $en% $o run ou$ o& a//o */oney ery 5ui-ly' 1' Less Less is Mo More re ○ a$ien ene e ○ Mos$ be#innin# $ra%ers lose /oney in $"e /ar-e$s, an% /os$ be#innin# $ra%ers $ra%ers are also also any$"in# B)T !a$ien$' 3
○ For be#inner $ra%ers, &i#"$ $"e $en%eny $o /a-e yoursel& $ra%e beause you "ae $"e i%ea $"a$ $ra%in# will earn you /oney' ?nly s/ar$ $ra%in# wi$" a !lan an /a-e you /oney' ○ io$ leel''' I %e/an% a lo$ &or buys' I%eally I &ous on $ra%es $"a$ s"ow a s"or$ $er/ oerbou#"$ on%i$ion an% !rie in $"e area a$ or aboe R1 or R2 &or s"or$s' T"is is een /ore !ower&ul i& $"e !reious %ay+s "i#" is sli#"$ly below $"e R1 or R2 leel' In o$"er wor%s, I loo- &or &alse brea-ou$s aboe !reious %ay+s "i#"s a$ R1 an% or R2 leels' I use s$o!s an% li/i$s $o #e$ /e in a$ $"e leels an% use a 30 !i! s$o! or less ini$ially' As $"e $ra%e /a-es $"e s!rea% u! an% /oes in /y &aor, I loo- $o re%ue $"e ris- an% $i#"$en $"e s$o!' My e4i$s are !re%e$er/ine% an% an be a$ /ar-e$ i& $"in#s #e$ "airy' I use an%le &or/a$ions an% basi "ar$ !a$$erns $o %e$er/ine low ris- $ra%es an% $ar#e$s are $y!ially 2730 !i!s be&ore salin# ou$ so/e o& $"e !osi$ion' I #enerally $ry $o "ol% &or $"e aera#e %aily ran#e in !i!s be&ore e4i$in# &or $"e re/ainin# !or$ion' T"e reerse an be sai% &or buys' I li-e s"or$ $er/ oersol% on%i$ions an% !rie in $"e 1 an% or 2 leels un%er $"e Cen$ral >io$' I li-e buyin# !reious %ay+s low or a &alse brea- un%er $"is leel #ien $"e on%i$ions warran$ a boune' I li-e $ra%in# a$ $"e &i#ure, $"e /ar-e$s li-e roun% nu/bers an% o!$ions #e$
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$ri!!e% a$ $"ese !oin$s so $"ey are an easy $ra%e /ul$i!le $i/es !er /on$"' ou an $ra%e &or a liin# @us$ %oin# $"a$ as a /e$"o%, new $ra%ers o "ere is w"a$ I will be %oin# $"is wee-( I will s"or$ !reious %ay+s "i#"s an% buy !reious %ayDs lows' I& I #e$ s$o!!e% ou$ an% $"e /ar-e$ &in%s su!!or$ aboe $"e !reious %ay+s low, I will buy' I& $"e /ar-e$ &in%s resis$ane a$ $"e !reious %ay+s "i#" a&$er bein# !ene$ra$e% I will s"or$ i$' I $a-e $wo $ra%es !er %ay /a4, i& I win on $"e &irs$ I lose s"o! an% ban- $"e wins' I& I lose on $"e &irs$ I $ry $o a!$ure $"e $ra%e as %esribe% aboe''' i& i$ loses $oo, I lose s"o!' No e/o$ions, no /uss no &uss' I& a >io$ leel &in%s i$sel& a$ $"e Fi#ure, say Cable 1'71, I will loo- $o buy i$ a$ $"a$ !oin$ i& !rie "as $ra%e% %own $o i$ an% onersely &or !rie $ra%in# u! $o i$' I @us$ &oun% $"e Mee$>i!s'o/ si$e an% rea$e% an aoun$' I will %o /y bes$ $o "i#"li#"$ $ra%es wi$" $"is as i$ a!!aren$ly #ies real $i/e or lose $o i$ $ra-in#G
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TOP DOWN ANALYSIS (BIAS AND DIRECTION) 1' T"e Basi To! own Analysis( a' $u%y ) ollar In%e4 &or #eneral /ar-e$ %ire$ion b' Re&er $o $"e C?T re!or$ an% no$e $"e Co//erial Tra%erDs ne$ !osi$ion ' Consi%er $"e Co//erial Tra%ers as $"e H/ar$ MoneyH $"us $ry $o !osi$ion li-e $ra%es %' Re&er $o an% /oni$or %aily $"e 2, 7, 10, an% 30 year no$e line "ar$ oerlay e' ?n $"e Treasury No$e oerlay, loo- &or &ailure swin#s $o !roi%e lues $o $"e &u$ure %ire$ion o& $"e ) ollar &' I& $"e yiel%s are %ro!!in# an% one o& $"e $"ree yiel%s &ail $o /a-e a lower low, loo- &or ) ollar $o boune #' I& yiel%s are risin# an% one o& $"e $"ree yiel%s &ails $o /a-e a "i#"er "i#", loo- &or ) ollar $o sli%e lower "' A bullis" ) ollar $ransla$es $o lower &orei#n urrenies i' A bearis" ) ollar $ransla$es $o "i#"er &orei#n urrenies @' Loo- a$ $"e /on$"ly, wee-ly, an% %aily "ar$s o& $"e urreny !airs $ra%e%, no$in# -ey su!!or$ an% resis$ane leels -' e$er/ine $"e /ar-e$ &low on $"e %aily, "our, an% 1"our "ar$s ia swin# "i#"s an% lows l' Try $o $ra%e in line wi$" $"e lon# $er/ *$o! %own %ire$ional bias an% w"en $"e "our /ar-e$ &low is in syn' T"is will &il$er /any &alse si#nals an% assis$ us in "i#" !robabili$y $ra%e se$u!s /' ries bo$$o/ in la$e Noe/ber an% rally in$o $"e en% o& $"e year' DETAILED TOP DOWN ANALYSIS RULES 1. Long Term Analysis Use US! " #eneral marke$ dire%$ion a. )K is a /easure o& $"e alue o& $"e )'' %ollar rela$ie $o /a@ori$y o& i$s /os$ si#ni&ian$ $ra%in# !ar$ners' Bas-e$ in%e4 o& 6 urrenies *$"e euro, Ja!anese yen, Cana%ian %ollar, Bri$is" !oun%, we%is" -rona an% wiss &ran' &. Ris- ?&& Eniron/en$ I& ) In%e4 is !oise% $o #o "i#"er *la- o& ris- $olerane, &orei#n urrenies /ay see sellin# !ressure' E4a/!le( B>;) woul% /oe lower %. Ris- ?n Eniron/en$ I& ) In%e4 is !oise% $o #o lower *ris$olerane, &orei#n urrenies /ay see buyin# !ressure' E4a/!le( B>;) woul% /oe "i#"er '. COT (Commi$men$ o) Traders* a. Consi%er $"e Co//erial Tra%ers as $"e 9/ar$ Money:' E4a/ine a$ual !osi$ions o& $ra%ers an% $"e ne$ "an#e &ro/ !rior re!or$ *o//erials &. Loo- &or e4$re/e ne$ !osi$ions in $"e %a$a, warn o& /a@or $ren% "an#e %. Co//erial sen$i/en$ is on$rary $o o//erial a$ii$y *i'e' "e%#in# i. oin$ an% /us$ be brea"e% $o $"e u!si%e be&ore Mar-e$ Flow $urns u!' &. win# Lows I%eal se$u! is "ain# $wo "i#"er low an%les on ea" si%e o& $"e Fra$al Low an%le' Mos$ reen$ win# Low is $"e >io$ >oin$ an% /us$ be brea"e% $o $"e %ownsi%e be&ore %.
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Mar-e$ Flow $urns %own'
?nly $"e /os$ reen$ win# =i#" ; Low are u$ilie% &or %e$er/inin# Mar-e$ Flow wi$" ol% win#s %isre#ar%e% d. T"ere is s$ron# a#ree/en$ o& Mar-e$ Flow i& aily, =our, an% 1 =our $i/e&ra/es are in line' Fous on =our Mar-e$ Flow &or onsis$eny' e. Fra$als by %e&ini$ion an be i%en$i&ie% &ro/ $"e "i#"er $i/e &ra/e on %own $o ea" lower $i/e &ra/e' ou s"oul% be able $o &in% an ?TE a$ ea" $i/e &ra/e %own $o $"e lower ones' *July 12 >ro Tra%ers Club 32(00 F2$2res Con$ra%$s a. Loo- a$ &u$ure on$ra$ losin# an% w"e$"er $"e lea% /on$" lose% "i#"er $"an 2n% /on$" *i'e' $"is /on$"+s on$ra$ lose% "i#"er $"an ne4$ /on$"+s on$ra$ &. Ba-war%a$ion w"en 2n% /on$" loses lower $"an lea% /on$", in%ia$es $"a$ !re/iu/ is no lea% /on$" an% $"ere&ore $"ere is s$ron# %e/an% &or $"e on$ra$ %. I& a "u#e %i&&erene in lose !ries, an in%ia$e a "an#e in !rie /oe/en$$"e &ur$"er $"e !rie %i&&erene in $"e &u$ures on$ra$ $"e /ore !rie will li-ely "an#e $owar%s $"e &u$ure !rie Open 4n$eres$ (O4* a. T"is is $"e $o$al nu/ber o& lon#s an% s"or$s /oin# in$o $"e &u$ure+s ins$ru/en$ &. I& inrease in ?I, in%ia$e o//erials inreasin# ne$ s"or$s, w"en ?I %ereases, o//erials re%uin# ne$ s"or$s *i'e' !rie will #o u! %. ?I use&ul in $"e &ollowin# ase( wan$ $o see /ar-e$ $ra%e in %ire$ion, #o in$o onsoli%a$ion, $"en see ?I %ro! or rise aroun% 178 su%%enly %urin# onsoli%a$ion i. I& /ar-e$ $ra%es u!, onsoli%a$es, an% ?I %ro!, !robabili$y /ar-e$ will /oe u! %.
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I& /ar-e$ $ra%es %own, onsoli%a$es, an% ?I inreases, !robabili$y /ar-e$ will /oe %own *as o//erials are a%%in# $o "e%#e Canno$ use ?I /oe by i$sel& ii.
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5E, 6O4NTS7 Tra%e in line wi$" $"e lon# $er/ *To! own %ire$ional bias an% w"en $"e "our Mar-e$ Flow is in syn' re&erene ICT !re&ers no$ $o &ollow $ra%es in$o new $erri$ory as i$ usually $ries $o o/e ba- %own $o $"e ran#e' Base $ra%in# on -nown leels' Breako2$ - Valid = False 6ro)ile Trending 6ro)ile :e>ersal 6ro)ile T"e !ro&ile will &or/ a sell %ay %urin# a bullis" Asian, Lon%on an% !ossibly N session bu$ &ail $o "ol% i$s rally an% reerse lower' I$ will &or/ a buy %ay %urin# a bearis" Asian, Lon%on an% !ossibly N session bu$ will &ail $o "ol% i$s lower !rie sli%e an% reerse "i#"er' Ty!ially N?, LC an% la$e N session will !os$ $"e reersal' a' Sing on i' win# %own $o a -ey wee-ly an%;or %aily su!!or$ an% brea-$"rou#" be&ore $urnin# u! an% reersin#' ii' Reersal /ay brea- in$o new session "i#"s be&ore i$ se$$les in$o a $ra%in# ran#e &or a new $ra%in# %ay' '
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Sing Up i' win# u! $o a -ey wee-ly an%;or %aily resis$ane an% brea-$"rou#" be&ore re$rain# %own' ii' Reersal /ay brea- in$o new session lows be&ore i$ se$$les in$o a $ra%in# ran#e &or a new $ra%in# %ay'
Sear% = es$roy Tren%in# i%eways Mar-e$( Ban-s will loo- $o lear ou$ s$o!s $o #ain a%%i$ional li5ui%i$y' a' A ran#e &or/s a&$er swin# low an% swin# "i#"' u!!or$ an% Resis$ane areas are &or/e% in $"e ran#e' Mar-e$ will loo- $o $a-e ou$ $"e lon#s by %i!!in# below $"e es$ablis"e% su!!or$ leel o& $"e ran#e'
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Ne4$ $"e /ar-e$ will loo- $o $a-e ou$ $"e s"or$s by s"oo$in# ba- u! aboe $"e resis$ane leels'
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ealers will $"en $ar#e$ $"e s$o!s aroun% $"e swin# !oin$s an% s"oo$ aboe !reious "i#"s $o $ri##er $"e s$o!s o& $"e s"or$s'
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Tra%ers $"in-in# $"a$ $"e !reious /oe &inally si#nals a buy brea-ou$ will $"en be &oole% as $"e %ealers will loo- $o $a-e ou$ $"e s$o!s aroun% $"e !reious swin# low !oin$'
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SUPPORT / RESISTANCE AREAS
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io$s ii. io$s iii. aily >io$s O$er S=: Le>els a. >reious ay Close;?!en &. Ins$i$u$ional >rie Leels *I>L Ins$i$u$ional Tra%ers /ay %e$er/ine $i/in# o& $ra%es aroun% 100 !i! !rie leels *0'20, 0'70, 0'Q0, e$' %. Tra%in# $o a !rior low or "i#" d. aily AR "i#";low
5E, 6O4NTS7 T"e /ore $i/es a su!!or$ an% resis$ane area is 9"i$:, $"e /ore si#ni&ian$ i$ is' ?nly $"e /os$ reen$ win# =i#" ; Low are u$ilie% &or %e$er/inin# Mar-e$ Flow wi$" ol% win#s %isre#ar%e%'
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AREAS OF CONFLUENCE 1.
/arke$ S$r2%$2re As /ar-e$s %eline an% /a-e lower lows, ea" new swin# lower in !rie is an"ore% or %ire$ly rea$in# $o ano$"er swin# "i#"er or lower' Eery swin# in !rie "as an e5ual oun$er swin# i$ is un&ol%in# &ro/ an% a$$e/!$in# $o &ul&ill' a' Any "or$ Ter/ Lon# *TL $"a$ "as a "i#"er TL on bo$" si%es o& i$ is onsi%ere% an In$er/e%ia$e Ter/ Low *ITL' Any ITL $"a$ "as a "i#"er ITL on bo$" si%es o& i$ is onsi%ere% a Lon# Ter/ Low *LTL' b' Any "or$ Ter/ =i#" *T= $"a$ "as a lower T= on bo$" si%es o& i$ is onsi%ere% an In$er/e%ia$e Ter/ =i#" *IT=' Any IT= $"a$ "as a lower IT= on bo$" si%es o& i$ is onsi%ere% a Lon# Ter/ =i#" *LT=' ' Tra%e !ri/arily on $"e si%e o& $"e $ren%' Lon# on bullis" an% s"or$ on bearis"'
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Sing 6oin$s Mar-e$ %elines an% /a-es lower lows on ea" new swin# lower in !rie, $"e !rie is 9an"ore%: or %ire$ly rea$in# $o ano$"er swin# lower a' Ea" swin# in !rie "as e5ual oun$er swin# b' >A nee%s $o /oe a$ leas$ 0 !i!s $o be onsi%ere% a swin# *on ) a$ leas$ ' Mar-e$ $ra%es &ro/ s"or$ $er/ lows *TL $o s"or$ $er/ "i#"s *T= ba- $o new TL' A$ TL an% T=, >A will %eelo! /ar-e$ s$ru$ures i' In$er/e%ia$e $er/ low *ITL( TL $"a$ "as "i#"er TL on ei$"er si%e 2"
In$er/e%ia$e $er/ "i#" *IT=( T= $"a$ "as lower T= on bo$" si%es iii' Lon# $er/ low *ITL( ITL $"a$ "as "i#"er ITL on ei$"er si%e i' Lon# $er/ "i#" *IT=( IT= $"a$ "as lower IT= on bo$" si%es %' win#s( loo- a$ swin#s an% un%ers$an% eery /oe is an"ore% $o !reious low or "i#" an% >A beo/es lear i$ is !io$in# on a 708 basis o& $"e !reious lows an% "i#"s i' I& swin# /oes 70 !i!s, a&$er onsoli%a$ion i& i$ on$inues "i#"er an% brea"es $"e swin# "i#", an$ii!a$e ano$"er 70 !i!s /oe a%%e% $o $"e low %urin# onsoli%a$ion ii' I& >A &ails $o $ra%e aboe $"e !reious swin# "i#", an$ii!a$e a %eline o& 70 !i!s &ro/ $"e "i#" /a%e on /os$ reen$ rally;onsoli%a$ion Session ?ig@Lo $"e "i#";low o& $"e 3 %i&&eren$ sessions' Asia is /os$ i/!or$an$ an% $"e "i#";low usually se$s $"e %ay+s R &or Lon%on an% )' a. ession Ti/e Asia O!/ ET P!/ ET *12 MT Lon%on 3 a/ 12 !/ ET *P1O MT N Qa/ 7!/ ET *1220 MT &. el (46L* >rie leels w"ere o//erials usually en$er $"e /ar-e$' T"ey are 00, '20, '70, 'Q0 loa$e% be$ween eery 100 !i! /ar-in# *e'#' 1'0100, 1'0120, 1'0170, 1'01Q0 ii'
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T"e Fi#ure Ter/ use% by $ra%ers $o re&er $o a 100 !oin$;!i! 2#
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leel or een a /i% !oin$ $o $"e Fi#ure' E4a/!le, 1'7770, 1'770, an% 1'7370' &. Basi Bi# Fi#ure Mo%el i. >rie an $ra%e $o an% boune;re$rae &ro/ a bi# &i#ure leel' ii. Loo- &or on&luene o& su!!or$in# leels, ?TE, e$' Always $a-e $"e Fi#ure in li#"$ o& w"ere we s$an% in $"e oerall /ar-e$ &low, s$ru$ure, an% $ren%' %. An$ii!a$e wee!s An$ii!a$e !rie swee!in# "i#"er an% lower $"an $"e Fi#ure $o $a-e ou$ s$o!s aboe an% below $"e leel' Trading $o 6rior Lo or ?ig7 d. ?n Lon#, w"en /ar-e$ &alls %own $o !rior low, $"is /oe is /ore si#ni&ian$ $"an w"en /ar-e$ &alls %own $o !rior "i#" e. ?n "or$, w"en /ar-e$ $ra%es u! $o !rior "i#", $"is /oe is /ore si#ni&ian$ $"an w"en /ar-e$ $ra%es u! $o !rior low ). Fibs raw &ibs usin# $"e swin#s, swee$ s!o$ is $"e 62OP8 leel wi$" O28 bein# /os$ o!$i/al g. Ran#e Cyle Calula$ions i. Mar-e$ yles in lar#e an% s/all ran#es, as %aily s$ar$s $o lose near !rior lose i$ is a s/all ran#e ii. For swin# "i#" ran#es, oun$ %ay;bars be$ween !reious swin# "i#"s an% /ul$i!ly by 1'2Q, $"en oun$ &orwar% $"a$ ' "oul% in%ia$e w"ere a new "i#" will un&ol% iii. For swin# lows, oun$ %ays be$ween !rior lows an% /ul$i!ly by 1'2Q 6i>o$ 6oin$s Ty!ially, w"en !rie is $ra%in# aboe en$ral !io$, i$Ds $i/e $o sell' els' A#ain, sine so /any $ra%ers are wa$"in# $"ese leels $o !lae buy an% sell or%ers $o $a-e !ro&i$s, $"is $ool $en%s $o wor- /ore o&$en $"an no$ %ue $o sel& &ul&illin# e4!e$a$ions' T"e Fibonai $ool wor-s bes$ w"en $"e /ar-e$ is $ren%in#' T"e i%ea is $o #o lon# *or buy on a re$rae/en$ a$ a Fibonai su!!or$ leel w"en $"e /ar-e$ is $ren%in# u!, an% $o #o s"or$ *or sell on a re$rae/en$ a$ a Fibonai resis$ane leel w"en $"e /ar-e$ is $ren%in# %own' In or%er $o &in% $"ese re$rae/en$ leels, you "ae $o &in% $"e reen$ si#ni&ian$ win# =i#"s an% win#s Lows' T"en, &or %own$ren%s, li- on $"e win# =i#" an% %ra# $"e ursor $o $"e /os$ reen$ win# Low' For u!$ren%s, %o $"e o!!osi$e' Cli- on $"e win# Low an% %ra# $"e ursor $o $"e /os$ reen$ win# =i#"' 1'
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>reious T"ree ays Re&erene $"e !reious $"ree %ays w"en $ryin# $o %e$er/ine !oin$s $o %raw Fibs a$ $"e =i#"s;Lows' ession =i#"s Lows ou an use a ession =i#";Low w"en %rawin# Fibs' No$ @us$ only %aily "i#"s;lows' U6T:EN
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O8NT:EN
1'
Tar#e$in# )sin# Fib Re$rae/en$ a' )!si%e ?b@e$ie( >ull Fib &ro/ reen$ swin# "i#" $o $"e swin# low' Firs$ $a-e !ro&i$ woul% be aroun% $"e 100 leel an% $"en $"e 200 leel' b' ownsi%e ?b@e$ie( >ull Fib &ro/ reen$ swin# low $o $"e swin# "i#"' Firs$ $a-e !ro&i$ woul% be aroun% $"e 100 leel an% $"en $"e 200 leel' ' Always loo- $o $"e le&$ o& !rie $o i%en$i&y o$"er -ey !rie leels w"i" /ay oini%e wi$" $"e $ar#e$e% !rie ob@e$ie'
31
2'
Tar#e$in# )sin# Fib E4!ansion a' )!si%e ?b@e$ie( >ull &ro/ $"e buy !oin$ on $"e swin# low $owar%s $"e !reious swin# "i#"' T"is will s"ow $"e e4!ansion leels' b' ownsi%e ?b@e$ie( >ull &ro/ $"e sell !oin$ on $"e swin# "i#" $owar%s $"e !reious swin# low' T"is will s"ow $"e e4!ansion leels'
3'
>rolon#e% Tar#e$in# )se Fib Re$rae/en$ an% ins$ea% o& !ullin# &ro/ "i#" $o low an% $"e "i#" si$s on $"e 100 leel, raise $"e Fib $ool so $"a$ $"e "i#" si$s on $"e 70 leel' ouDll see $"e e4$ension leels /oe "i#"er &or a lon#er ran#e !rie ob@e$ie in a $ren%in# "i#"er /ar-e$'
32
OTE PATTERNS 1. S$andard OTE ' OTE 6a$$ern " Long( on+$ rea$ $o !rie /oe/en$s, an$ii!a$e' An$ii!a$e an% $ra%e in$o -ey su!!or$ leels' Buy as !rie #oes %own an% a!!roa"es $"e swin# low' I& bar Hwi-sH, you an /oe s$o!s or $a-e $ra%es o&& $o brea- een'
An$ii!a$e !rie $o #o %own $o su!!or$ leel an% boune u!' T"e $ou" o& $"e su!!or$ is 1' i' Boune u! $o a s"or$ $er/ "i#" a$ !oin$ 2' An$ii!a$e $ra%e $o #o ba- %own an% re$es$ su!!or$' ii' Loo- $o en$er lon# in $"e HHwee$ !o$HH *Be$ween 62 an% OP leels VO0'7 iii' Firs$ $a-e !ro&i$ !oin$ woul% be w"en $ra%e rea"es !oin$ 2 !rie or 20 !i!s' i4' >ro$e$ie s$o! loss is 10 !i!s /ini/u/ below !oin$ 1' OTE 6a$$ern " Sor$ ( on+$ "ase !rie a$ion' I& !rie #oes u!, %on+$ assu/e i$ will always /oe u!' An$ii!a$e an% $ra%e s"or$ in$o -ey resis$ane leels' ell as !rie #oes u! an% a!!roa"es $"e swin# "i#"' I& bar Hwi-sH, you an /oe s$o!s or $a-e $ra%es o&& $o brea- een' '
'
4'
I%en$i&y, an$ii!a$e !rie $o #o %own $o resis$ane leel an% 33
re$raes %own' T"e $ou" o& $"e resis$ane is 1' 4i' Re$rae %own $o a s"or$ $er/ low a$ !oin$ 2' An$ii!a$e $ra%e $o #o ba- u! an% re$es$ resis$ane' 4ii' Loo- $o en$er s"or$ in $"e Hwee$ !o$H *Be$ween 62 an% OP leels VO0'7 4iii' Firs$ $a-e !ro&i$ !oin$ woul% be w"en $ra%e rea"es !oin$ 2 !rie or 20 !i!s' 4i' >ro$e$ie s$o! loss is 10 !i!s /ini/u/ aboe !oin$ 1' '.
4CT :e)le%$ion 6a$$ern - Te An$i-OTE a. B2y Eample( ouDll "ae a si#ni&ian$ low an% you an$ii!a$e $"e /oe is $o "ase s$o!s below $"e leel' In or%er $o a!!ro4i/a$e $"e !rie leel $o en$er, %raw a Fib &ro/ low $o "i#" an% loo- $o #o lon# a$ $"e 100 leel' . Ta-e !ro&i$s a$ 20 !i!s an% se$ re/ainin# !or$ion $o brea-een an% loo- &or Lon%on on$inua$ion in$o N session'
3"
%.
osi$ie or Bullis" ier#ene' iii. Buy near un%ay ?!enin# an% loo- &or e4i$ a$ $"e Fri%ay Closin# Ran#e' i>. For bearis" eniron/en$s you an s"or$ $"e MT Ne#a$ie or Bearis" ier#ene insi%e an% or a$ $"e Fri%ay losin# ran#e u!on #a! &illin#' >. Ta-e !ro&i$s a$ 20 !i!s an% se$ re/ainin# !or$ion $o brea-een an% loo- &or Lon%on on$inua$ion in$o N session'
d.
Lay Asian ession ession %oesn+$ $y!ially a$$e/!$ $o breain$o new "i#"s ; lows' Asian ession Buy Ty!ially $ra%es oun$er $"e N session %ire$ion in a orre$ie boune' i. Asian ession rarely sees &ollow $"rou#" on new lows' ii. ?n "i#"er $i/e&ra/es li-e oin$ is $"e 62OP8 leels or be$ween $"e/ *VO0'7 e. London Close Co2n$er-Trend B2y i. Re&erene $"e ) ollar In%e4 an% %e$er/ine i& i$ "as /e$ i$s 7 %ay Aera#e aily Ran#e ii. e$er/ine i& $"e !air $ra%e% "as /e$ i$s 7 %ay AR' iii. >rior $o $"e Lon%on Close ill Uone win%ow %e$er/ine "i#"er $i/e&ra/e .
iii. I%eally, be$$er $ra%es &or/ on swin#s /easurin# a$ leas$ 178208 o& $"e %aily ran#e o& $"e $ra%in# %ay' London Close Co2n$er-Trend Sell i. Re&erene $"e ) ollar In%e4 an% %e$er/ine i& i$ "as /e$ i$s 7 %ay Aera#e aily Ran#e AR' ii. e$er/ine i& $"e !air $ra%e% "as /e$ i$s 7 %ay AR' iii. >rior $o $"e Lon%on Close ill Uone win%ow %e$er/ine "i#"er $i/e&ra/e i.
).
A&$er $"e boune, !ull a Fib oer $"e s"or$ $er/ %ownswin# an% onsi%er sellin# $"e !air a$ ?TE on $"e 7/in "ar$' >ii. Ris- 10 !i!s aboe $"e "i#" use% &or $"e Fib an% $a-e >i.
2
+.
!ro&i$s on 1720 !i!s !i!s an% "ol% &or $"e $"e low o& $"e Fib base% swin#' >iii. I%eally, be$$er $ra%es &or/ on swin#s /easurin# a$ leas$ 178208 o& $"e %aily ran#e o& $"e $ra%in# %ay' g. London Close Se$2p i. urin# a "i#"er TF onsoli%a$ion, we wai$ &or $"e %aily ran#e $o e4!an%' Moni$or $"e "ourly "ar$s &or ran#e e4!ansion $owar%s -ey R leels' T"e i%eal se$u! woul% lea% $o ran#e on$ra$ion w"i" /eans $"a$ we are o/in# o&& a L? !ro&i$ release' ii. T"e se$u! usually ours %urin# trend exhaustion a$ a -ey leel' Loo- &or on&luene o& R, wee-ly !io$s an% !ro@e$ion $ar#e$s' $ar#e$s' LC se$u!s se$u!s are oun$er $ren% $ra%es' $ra%es' )se $"e 30 !erio% rie #e$s $o a er$ain leel in $"e /ar-e$ be&ore re@e$in# $"a$ leel an% sna!!in# ba$"e o$"er way' ?n a "ar$ we see a >in Bar bu$ $"a$ >in Bar was /a%e u! o& $ra%ers all aroun% $"e worl% buyin# or sellin# a$ $"e sa/e area an% re@e$in# "i#"er or lower !ries' T"is is a /e$"o% $"a$ "as been aroun% &or a lon# $i/e an% will be aroun% &or a lon# $i/e $o o/e' )nli-e o$"er rubbis" in%ia$ors or bla- bo4 sys$e/s >rie A$ion $ra%in# %oes no$ s$o! wor-in# w"en $"e /ar-e$ %yna/is "an#e' ?o %an e 2se 6ri%e A%$ion $o pro)i$; Tra%ers an% "u/ans are ery "abi$ual an% will %o $"e sa/e #ien $"e sa/e iru/s$anes' As $ra%ers we an be#in $o reo#nie !a$$erns $"a$ &or/ on $"e "ar$' T"ese !a$$erns will $en% $o re!ea$ $"e/seles an% "ae $"e sa/e ou$o/es' No $wo $ra%es will eer be $"e sa/e an% no ou$o/es will eer /a$" a !reious $ra%e+s, bu$ by !er&e$in# $"ese "i#" !robabili$y !rie a$ion !a$$erns we an be#in $o !lae $ra%es $"a$ oer $i/e will #ie us an e%#e in $"e /ar-e$
Tra%ers an learn an% !er&e$ $"ese $ra%in# !a$$erns an% be#in $o i/!le/en$ s$ra$e#ies $"a$ will oer $i/e #ie $"e/ an e%#e on $"e /ar-e$' An e%#e is si/!ly so/e$"in# $"a$ #ies a $ra%er a be$$er "ane $"an 70;70 o& !lain# a winnin# $ra%e'
!
HIGH PROBABILITY PRICE PATTERNS 1. Te oDi - For/ w"en o!en an% lose are ir$ually e5ual' o@i alone is neu$ral' Bullis" or bearis" bias is base% on !ree%in# !rie a$ion an% &u$ure on&ir/a$ion' Bes$ use% as on&ir/a$ion o& an$ii!a$e% a$ion, "an#es in %ire$ion'
2.
Te ?ammer aka 6in&ar - For/ w"en !rie /oes si#ni&ian$ly lower a&$er $"e o!en, bu$ rallies $o lose well aboe $"e in$ra%ay low' re&erene is $o see $"e !a$$ern a$ =our an% 1=our "ar$s a$ "i#"er $i/e &ra/e R leels' I& ao/!anies MT ier#ene, loo- $o $ra%e /a4i/u/ rise4!osure
4.
Te Teeer ?ig - Loo-s li-e onseu$ie Bearis" >inbars' In%ia$es $"a$ !rie "el% $wie a$ $"e e4a$ sa/e leel' Buyers no$ able $o !us" !rie "i#"er' T"e lon#er $"e wi-s $"e be$$er' >re&erene is $o "
see $"e !a$$ern a$ =our an% 1=our "ar$s a$ "i#"er $i/e &ra/e R leels' I& ao/!anies MT ier#ene, loo- $o $ra%e /a4i/u/ rise4!osure
5.
:ailroad Tra%ks Two an%les$i-s wi$" s/aller wi-s &or "i#"s;lows w"ere $"e !ree%in# an%leDs bo%y /a$"es $"a$ o& $"e urren$ an%leDs bo%y in $"e o!!osi$e %ire$ion' Loo- &or $"ese a$ -ey leels $o si#ni&y an en#ineere% reersal' .ery s$ron# !a$$ern'
6.
?ead = So2lders Top Forma$ion ellin# >a$$ern a. Ty!ially ours a$ in$er/e%ia$e or lon#$er/ "i#"' &. >rie ob@e$ie &ro/ "i#"es$ "i#" o& "ea% $o $"e lows a$ $"e ne-line' Measure &ro/ "i#" $o $"e ne-line an% !rie ob@e$ie woul% be $"a$ %is$ane e4$en%in# below $"e ne-line' %. ellin# >a$$ern'
3.
Tree 4ndians Clima :e>ersal 6a$$ern a. T"ree !ro#ressiely "i#"er !rie slo!e "i#"s rea"in# a $o! near an area o& resis$ane' T"is woul% be a sell !a$$ern as weD% #
&.
reasonably e4!e$ !rie $o &all' Loo- &or ?TE a$ a lower $i/e &ra/e' ellin# >a$$ern'
Triangles =ow ICT Tra%es T"e/ a. No$e a -ey resis$ane leel w"ere you &in% onsoli%a$ion an% su!!or$;resis$ane' >lo$ a #eneral $ren%line &ro/ low !oin$ $o i$s in$erse$ion wi$" $"e -ey resis$ane leel' Measure &ro/ low u! $o $"e resis$ane leel' &. )se $"e wi%es$ !or$ion o& $"e $rian#le an% a%% $"a$ !i! ran#e $o $"e low !oin$ %i!s alon# $"e $ren% line' No$ ea" leel as i$ !ro#resses an% $"ese leels woul% be w"ere youD% e4!e$ $a-e !ro&i$ !oin$s in $"e &u$ure %urin# a buy !ro#ra/' 9. 4n>er$ed ?ead = So2lders Bo$$om Forma$ion a. Ty!ially ours a$ in$er/e%ia$e or lon#$er/ low' &. >rie ob@e$ie &ro/ lowes$ low o& iner$e% "ea% $o $"e "i#"s a$ $"e iner$e% ne-line' Measure &ro/ low $o $"e iner$e% ne-line an% !rie ob@e$ie woul% be $"a$ %is$ane e4$en%in# aboe &ro/ $"e iner$e% ne-line' %. Buyin# >a$$ern 10. B2ll Flag Con$in2a$ion 6a$$ern Loo- &or $"e &la# !ole w"i" woul% be a s"ar! !rie run u! &ollowe% by %esen%in# ran#e o& !rie be$ween "annel' >rie ob@e$ie woul% be %one by #e$$in# $"e !i! ran#e &ro/ low $o "i#" an% a%%in# $"a$ %is$ane $o $"e lowes$ low o& $"e &la# an% $o $"e brea-ou$ o& $"e &la#' T"ere woul% be a reasonable e4!e$a$ion $"a$ !rie will a!!reia$e $o /ee$ $"ose leels' 8.
$
11.
Bear Flag Con$in2a$ion 6a$$ern Loo- &or $"e &la# !ole w"i" woul% be a s"ar! !rie run %own &ollowe% by asen%in# !rie ran#e;"annel' >rie ob@e$ie woul% be %one by #e$$in# $"e !i! ran#e &ro/ "i#" $o low an% a%%in# $"a$ %is$ane $o $"e "i#"es$ "i#" o& $"e &la# an% $o $"e brea-ou$ lower o& $"e &la#' T"ere woul% be a reasonable e4!e$a$ion $"a$ !rie will %e!reia$e $o /ee$ $"ose leels'
1'.
Coil Epansion 6a$$ern a. raw $ren%line o& lower "i#"s an% $ren%line o& "i#"er low $o a !oin$ w"ere $"ey loo- $o in$erse$' As !rie a!!roa"es $"e in$erse$ion, weD% e4!e$ !rie $o ran#e "i#"er or lower &ro/ $"a$ !oin$' &. )se "i#"er $i/e &ra/e analysis $o #e$ in syn an% an$ii!a$e w"i" %ire$ion !rie will %ue $o %ire$ional bias' I& !a$$ern %
%.
ours a$ -ey su!!or$ leel, an$ii!a$e !rie $o ran#e "i#"er' Measure ran#e &ro/ $"e low $o $"e $ou" !oin$ o& $"e u!!er $ren% line o& lower "i#"s aboe i$' A%% $"e ran#e $o $"e u!!er or lower $ren% line $o i%en$i&y a !rie ob@e$ie one !rie be#ins $o ran#e ou$ o& $"e oil'
So2p :e>ersal 6a$$ern - Tur$le ou! is w"en !rie $a-es ou$ s$o!s beyon% an ol% "i#" or low an% i//e%ia$ely reerses %ire$ion a. I%en$i&y $"e lowes$ low an% "i#"es$ "i#" in $"e las$ 20 !erio%s;an%les$i-s' &. o lon# a$ $"e $i/e !rie #oes below $"e lowes$ low in $"e !reious 20 !erio%s' T"is is %one on $"e no$ion $"a$ $"e !rie /oe below is a &alse brea-' %. o s"or$ a$ $"e $i/e !rie #oes aboe $"e "i#"es$ "i#" in $"e !reious 20 !erio%s' T"is is %one on $"e no$ion $"a$ $"e !rie /oe aboe is a &alse brea-' 14. :ip$ide :e>ersal Any si#ni&ian$ "i#" or low bro-en;re@e$e% oer any !erio%, nu/ber o& an%les s"oul% /oe in $"e o!!osi$e %ire$ion a&$er bro-en' 1. O2$side ay i$ on Close a. >a$$ern w"ere seon% an%le "as a "i#"er "i#" an% lower low $"an $"e !erio% be&ore wi$" a %own lose' Bullis" senario w"en i$ ours a$ an oersol% !erio% usin# a$$ern w"en $"e seon% an%le "as a "i#"er low an% a lower "i#" $"an $"e !reious %ay' )!on $"e lose o& $"e an%le, i$ si#ni&ies a $ren%in# %ay or lar#e ran#e e4!ansion %ay $o &ollow'
16. 4nside
!1
TRAIN . Rai% $"e >reious reious i. Rai% $"e >reious ession $o!s >ii. Rai%in# ession $o!s 1. I& $ra%in# Lon%on ?!en, loo- &or Asian s$o!s $o be rai%e%' '. I& $ra%in# N ession, loo- &or Lon%on ?!en s$o!s $o be rai%e%' /arke$ Sing 6oin$s a. 10(00 MT W 7/in C"ar$ i. $an%ar% Ju%as win# 1. )se o!enin# !rie on /i%ni#"$ an%le, %raw o!en line in$o $"e %ay' '. I& Bearis", loo- &or s"or$s a$ !oin$s aboe $"e line' &. Ju%as win# ?ne Eery 2=our i. T"e win# s"oul% "a!!en a$ leas$ one in a 2"our &.
'.
!2
%.
d.
e.
session' ii. win# s"oul% be in $"e o!!osi$e %ire$ion o& w"a$ $"e $ren% &or $"e %ay "as been' Con&luene o& R )se 17 !i! bu&&er w"en loo-in# &or on&luene o& R Tra%e A&$er win# =i#" ; Low i. I& /ar-e$ is $ra%in# lower, $"en loo- &or a sell a&$er a reen$ swin# "i#"' ii. I& /ar-e$ is $ra%in# "i#"er, $"en loo- &or a buy a&$er a reen$ swin# low' Two Tren%s in a ay i. Mornin# Tren% $"a$ is $"e /ar-e$ o!en $o aroun% 11a/ an% onsoli%a$es $o aroun% $"e N lun" !erio%' ii. Aroun% 1!/ 2!/, $"in#s "ea$ u! $o &ul&ill $"e >M $ren% &or $"e re/ainin# !or$ion o& $"e %aily ran#e'
!3
ICT TRADING CONCEPTS 1. Te TraderGs Trini$y - 4nner Cir%le TraderGs E%l2si>e O>er&o2g$ - O>ersold = S=: Con%ep$ - ay 11 a. Tra%er+s Trini$y i. )!!er >or$ion ?erbou#"$ one' Loo- &or s"or$s' ii. Mi%%le o& $"e Ran#e Fair alue ; E5uilibriu/ iii. Lower >or$ion ?ersol% Uone' Loo- &or buys' &. Mon$"ly Trini$y i. Loo- &or !erio%s w"ere !rie "as bro-en ou$ o& $"e Trini$y Ran#e $o $"e low an% "i#" usin# $"e %aily "ar$ as se$ione% o&& by Mon$"ly Trini$y' ii. Re&erene $"e 3 !reious !erio%s in $"e $i/e &ra/e $o loo ba- &or relean$ leels;in&or/a$ion' %. Trini$y Leels i. )!!er boun%ary !rie leels woul% si#ni&y an oerbou#"$ area an% we s"oul% loo- &or o!!or$uni$ies $o sell' ii. Lower boun%ary !rie leels woul% si#ni&y an oersol% area an% we s"oul% loo- &or o!!or$uni$ies $o buy' iii. Always see i& $"is is in a#ree/en$ or a#ains$ "i#"er $i/e &ra/e analysis' i>. >rie will $y!ially o/e ba- $o $"e &air alue ones in $"e en$er area o& $"e Tra%ers Trini$y' Try no$ $o $ra%e in $"e Fair .alue Uone'
d.
Bro-en Trini$y
!
re/ise be"in% $"is( T"e !air $"a$ &ails $o %ro! lower, i$ is bein# bou#"$ an% "ene, no$ willin# $o #o lower''' $"is is essen$ially He/an% in ?!era$ionH''' an$ii!a$e =i#"er !ries' ii. E)R;) is /a-in# "i#"er lows w"ile B>;) is /a-in# lower lows Buy E)R;)
c.
d.
Correla$ed 6air S/T Bearis i>ergen%e7 "oul% our a$ an% on&ir/ !re%e$er/ine% Resis$ane Leels' I& one !air &ails $o /a-e a "i#"er "i#" w"ile $"e o$"er suee%s, $"en e4!e$ bo$" !airs $o s"oo$ lower a$ a -ey su!!or$ leel' i. ;) is /a-in# lower "i#"s ell B>;)
Real E4a/!le o& Correla$e% >air MT ier#ene *B>;) !"
s' E)R;)( B> /a%e a "i#"er "i#" w"ile E)R &aile% $o /a-e "i#"er "i#"s' T"is si#nale% a reersal &or bo$" !airs'
rie /a-es a "i#"er "i#" ii. Au/ ; is$ &or sa/e !erio% /a-es a lower "i#" iii. ergen%e a. Type 1 B2llis i>ergen%e - >rie /ee$s a lower low w"ile $"e MAC rea"es a "i#"er low' raw Fib &ro/ $"e swin# low w"ere $"e %ier#ene was es$ablis"e% $o $"e reen$ swin# "i#" an% loo- &or ?TE $o en$er lon#'
!$
b.
.
Type 1 Bearis i>ergen%e - >rie /ee$s a "i#"er "i#" w"ile $"e MAC rea"es a lower "i#"' raw Fib &ro/ $"e swin# "i#" w"ere $"e %ier#ene was es$ablis"e% $o $"e reen$ swin# low an% loo- &or ?TE $o #o s"or$'
4CT #rail (/arke$ :e>ie 3@1 Hrie &in%s a "i#"er low a$ $"e ?TE leel' For $"e sa/e !erio%, $"e in%ia$or &in%s a lower or e5ual low a$ $"e sa/e $i/e'
!%
b.
.
Sell Se$2p - >rie &in%s a lower "i#" a$ $"e ?TE leel' For $"e sa/e !erio%, $"e in%ia$or &in%s a "i#"er or e5ual "i#" a$ $"e sa/e $i/e'
4CT S$inger (ay 1 No$es H'07,8 R,,7 #/2%) 2"@1! a. US 1& *, *,=. 6 87 5,=8,. 5 ; .,:,-5, 0-: 89, 5,=8,. 5. Ris- 20 !i!s >. Loo- &or MT ier#ene $o an$ii!a$e low o& %ay >i. Ta-e &irs$ !ro&i$ W 20 !i!s >ii. En$er on ouble Ta! >iii. Le$ seon% !or$ion run an% "ol% &or aily Ran#e i. Loo- &or Ti/e o& ay ?b@e$ie aroun% N?, L?C, an% 1Q(00 MT'
%.
d.
En$er on ouble Ta! i. Assu/in# $o$al ris- on $ra%e is 28 o& E5ui$y, Ta-e 708 o& !osi$ion o&& W V2030 !i!s &or 18 #ain *al!' Re/ainin# 18 !or$ion will be "el% &or $"e %aily ran#e' Loo- &or $i/e o& %ay ob@e$ie an% -ee! !ro$e$ie s$o! ou$si%e $"e %aily ran#e' ii. >ro$e$ie s$o! a$ Brea-een a&$er $a-in# !ro&i$ on &irs$ "al& o& $ra%e' Basi al!in# ell Me$"o% "3
I%en$i&y a -ey resis$ane leel ii. An$ii!a$e a Ju%as win# =i#"er iii. Loo- &or ?TE aroun% -ey resis$ane leel $o #o s"or$ i>. Ris- 20 !i!s >. Loo- &or MT ier#ene $o an$ii!a$e "i#" o& %ay >i. Ta-e &irs$ !ro&i$ W 20 !i!s >ii. En$er on ouble Ta! >iii. Le$ seon% !or$ion run an% "ol% &or aily Ran#e i. Loo- &or Ti/e o& ay ?b@e$ie aroun% N?, L?C, an% 1Q(00 MT i.
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Sor$ Term 4n$raday /e$od " ay '0 a. Me$"o% i. >lo$ EMA*0 an% EMA*1Q ii. Buy i#nals Loo- &or !erio%s w"ere $"e 1Q !erio% EMA is aboe $"e 0 !erio%s EMA' Buy !ro#ra/ w"en you see $"e wi%enin# o& $"e areas be$ween EMA iii. ell i#nals Loo- &or !erio%s w"ere $"e 1Q !erio% EMA is below $"e 0 !erio%s EMA' ell !ro#ra/ w"en you see $"e wi%enin# o& $"e areas be$ween EMA i>. ?ne !rie /a-es a &ra$al, swin# low %urin# Buy >ro#ra/, loo- &or o!en a&$er $"e &ra$al is &or/e% an% #o lon# one !rie a$$e/!$s $o /oe %own *Ju%as win# >. Ta-e O08 o&& w"en you an an% le$ $"e re/ainin# run' &. =i#"er Ti/e Fra/e $o!s As !rie /oes "i#"er, brin# s$o! $o V10 !i!s below $"e ne4$ &ra$al low one $wo near &ra$als &or/'
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rie will swin# "i#"er in$o a -ey resis$ane an% $"e s"or$ will be $ra%e% on $"e "our an%;or 1"our "ar$ &or se$u!' T"e en$ry will be $a-en on $"e 7/in "ar$ Tur$le ou! ell an%;or ?TE ell >a$$ern' 700 $o-s iii' NAAS $o-s, e$''' ' Co//o%i$ies an% Fu$ures i' CRB In%e4 ii' A#riul$ures iii' Finanials %' Currenies i' T"e ) ollar ii' Forei#n Currenies 2' In&la$ionary Eniron/en$ In$er/ar-e$ Rela$ions"i!s a' A >?ITI.E rela$ions"i! be$ween bon%s an% s$o-s b' An IN.ERE rela$ions"i! be$ween in$eres$ ra$es an% s$o-s ' Bon%s usually "an#e %ire$ion BEF?RE s$o-s %' An IN.ERE rela$ions"i! be$ween o//o%i$ies an% bon%s e' A >?ITI.E rela$ions"i! be$ween o//o%i$ies an% in$eres$ ra$es &' A >?ITI.E rela$ions"i! be$ween s$o-s an% o//o%i$ies #' Co//o%i$ies usually "an#e %ire$ion AFTER s$o-s' "' An IN.ERE rela$ions"i! be$ween $"e ) ollar an% o//o%i$ies 3' e&la$ionary Eniron/en$ In$er/ar-e$ Rela$ions"i!s a' An IN.ERE rela$ions"i! be$ween bon%s an% s$o-s b' A >?ITI.E rela$ions"i! be$ween in$eres$ ra$es an% s$o-s ' An IN.ERE rela$ions"i! be$ween o//o%i$ies an% bon%s %' A >?ITI.E rela$ions"i! be$ween o//o%i$ies an% in$eres$ ra$es e' A >?ITI.E rela$ions"i! be$ween s$o-s an% o//o%i$ies &' An IN.ERE rela$ions"i! be$ween $"e ) ollar an% o//o%i$ies
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Bi# Een$s in $"e /ar-e$ *i'e' E) risis an $"row er$ain rela$ions"i!s ou$ o& w"a-'
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PROFESSIONALS USE OF INDICATORS 1' Reisi$in# $"e Mar-e$ >ro&iles a' Consoli%a$ion Ran#e >ro&ile b' Brea-ou$ .ali% False >ro&ile ' Tren%in# >ro&ile %' Reersal >ro&ile 2' ?erbou#"$ ?ersol% a' Fous on ?ersol% in Mar-e$ >ro&iles $"a$ su##es$ !ries are bullis" is ?!$i/al b' ?erbou#"$ in Mar-e$ >ro&iles $"a$ su##es$ >ries are Bearis" is ?!$i/al' ' $o"*1,3,3 $"a$ says weDre oersol%' rie rea"es new low bu$ "%
in%ia$or %oes no$ rea" a new low' T"is is a %ier#ene be$ween !rie an% in%ia$or'
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Type 1 i>ergen%e (:e>ersal in Na$2re* >rie /oes o!!osi$e $"e "i#"er $i/e &ra/e $ren% an% %ier#es wi$" in%ia$or' >rie /oes o!!osi$e $"e "i#"er $i/e &ra/e $ren% an% %ier#es wi$" in%ia$or beause i$ is a si#n o& a reersal by na$ure' ' B2llis Type 1 i>ergen%e7 >rie &in%s a lower low w"ile $"e in%ia$or &in%s a "i#"er "i#" &or $"e sa/e !erio%
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Bearis Type 1 i>ergen%e7 >rie &in%s a "i#" "i#" w"ile $"e in%ia$or &in%s a lower low &or $"e sa/e !erio%'
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Type ' Trend Folloing i>ergen%e ier#ene &ro/ in%ia$or w"en !rie &ollows $"e $ren% bu$ %ier#es wi$" in%ia$or' ' B2llis Type ' i>ergen%e7 >rie &in%s a "i#"er low w"ile $"e in%ia$or &in%s a lower low &or $"e sa/e !erio% ' Bearis Type ' i>ergen%e7 >rie &in%s a lower "i#" w"ile $"e in%ia$or &in%s a "i#"er "i#" &or $"e sa/e !erio%'
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MISC VIDEO NOTES 1' 3'1 In$eres$ Ra$e ?erlay Tu$orial a' $o-"ar$s'o/ E? iel%s b' Free C"ar$s >er&C"ar$ X)T2,X)T7,X)T10, X)T30 2' 3'2 In$eres$ Ra$e ?erlay Tu$orial a' MT /ar$ Money Tool b' E)R ; ) s' B> ; ) orrela$ion' ier#ene /ay in%ia$e &aor in one s' $"e o$"er' 3' '3 win# >ro@e$ion A!!lia$ion Fib Con&i#ura$ion 1'2Q >ro@e$ion a' aily =i#" ; Lows P08 "ane $"a$ $"e %aily "i#";low is es$ablis"e% in $"e &irs$ "ours o& $ra%in# a&$er N /i%ni#"$' b' Ran#e E4!ansion ; Con$ra$ion Cyle ou an $y!ially e4!e$ bi# ran#es on $i/e&ra/es a&$er s/all ran#es an% ie ersus' ' ?!en W =i s' Close a$ LowG i' ro@e$ion Measure swin# low $o swin# low, oun$ $"e %ays' Mul$i!le $"a$ nu/ber by 1'2Q *roun% %own an% a%% $"a$ nu/ber o& bars $o $"e swin# "i#" in $"e /i%%le o& $"e $wo swin# lows' T"is s"oul% brin# you $o $"e ne4$ swin# "i#"' ' ay 1 T"e >ower o& T"ree Au/ula$ion >ro&i$ Release is$ribu$ion a' 3 Ma@or Mar-e$ Cyles i' Au/ula$ion >"ase /ar$ Money au/ula$in# lon#s or s"or$s ii' >ro&i$ Release >"ase Ran#e e4!ansion w"ere !ro&i$ is !er/i$$e% iii' is$ribu$ion >"ase /ar$ Money %is$ribu$es lon# or s"or$s b' T"e ?!en /ar$ /oney %is$ribu$es aboe $"e o!en an% au/ula$es below $"e o!en' ' 3 Bar >a$$ern i' ell W win# =i#" A "i#" wi$" $wo lower "i#"s on ea" si%e' Loo- $o #o s"or$ on $"e &irs$ bar a&$er $"e lose o& $"e 3r% lower "i#" bar' Loo- &or $"is a$ion a$ -ey resis$ane #2
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leels' ii' Buy W win# Low A low wi$" $wo "i#"er lows on ea" si%e' Loo- $o #o lon# on $"e &irs$ bar a&$er $"e lose o& $"e 3r% "i#"er low bar' Loo- &or $"is a$ion a$ -ey su!!or$ leels' >rie Tar#e$s i' N ?!en 12(00 MT *OAM ET ii' Lon%on Close 17(00 MT *12AM ET iii' An% 1Q(00 MT ro&i$ oals "' )sin# $"e &ib $o %raw ?TE, 12O an% 16Q8 are #oo% T> ones i' )sin# $"e &ib $o %raw ?TE, /oe $"e &ib so $"a$ $"e 708 is a$ $"e $o! o& $"e swin# *i& lon# an% use 1008 as T> @' Any on&luene o& /a@or R areas $"a$ /i#"$ e4is$, no$ neessarily a T> area bu$ so/e$"in# $o /oni$or ' E4i$ Moni$or $ra%e ris- un$il $ra%e is lose% -' 30708 o& $ra%e $a-en o&& a$ 30 !i!s in$o /oe, re/ain%er a$ ul$i/a$e T> l' E4i$ $ra%e i& $ra%e bias "an#es %urin# $ra%e or analysis su##es$ $ra%e is no lon#er ali% 7' $o! Loss /' L !lae 1020 !i!s below;aboe swin# use% &or Fib #
Moe L $o BE w"en >A $ra%es aboe;below $"e !reious swin# "i#";low use% $o %raw $"e Fib o' o no$ use $rail s$o!s, only /anual s$o!s RISK MANAGEMENT 1' =an%lin# Losses Inei$able raw%owns ay 13 a' 28 Ris- Neer ris- /ore $"an 28 !er $ra%e' b' Cu$$in# Ris- A$ &irs$ loss, u$ 28 ris- !er $ra%e $o 18 ris- !er $ra%e' I& onseu$ie losses on$inue, u$ ris- a#ain $o 0'78 !er $ra%e' ' ,8 S8 ; N,7 OTE R,,6=6 ? A-85+8, 3' aily Ran)e &vervie* ' D,8,0-, C,8 S8 ; N,7 OTE R,,6=6 ? A-85+8, ' "sian Ran)e ' N8, 89, I-8= R-:, H:9 L7 ' N7 F5,8 T,-. 5' N8, K,* SR L,,=6 O=. H:96 L76 .' T., 89, D,58- ; D=* S7-: P-8 ,' A-85+8, L-.- S8+ R., ? F., I8 !' "R -"vera)e aily Ran)e ' A=:- T., E+,588- 8 !?D* ADR ' O-5, T., E-8* ? S8=> ADR O,58,6 5' B=,-. T0, ; D* P5, T9,* .' A-85+8, P;8 O,58,6 N, ADR ,' E+,58 1!@&& ? 1"@&& GMT -. ADR C-,:,-5,6 O89, T,59-5=6 8 C-;0 P;8 T>-: O,58,6 "' !ntry /'ncept ' F5, une/!loy/en$, e$' w"i" in&luene lon#$er/ urreny $ren%s # #eneral /ar-e$ analysis !"ase top-down analysis, !"ase 1( analysis o& in$eres$ ra$es, !S"#, Treasuries, s$o- in%ies, $'7 8ndex, an% #ol% an% oil J B>;J> !air LT oo% Lu- an% oo% Tra%in# *si#na$ure use% by Michael, an% o$"ers MT reenwi" Mean Ti/e, $"e worl%Ds o//erial re&erene $i/e one, $o w"i" all o$"er $i/e ones are rela$e% by Ho&&se$sH *e'#', MT1, MTZ1, e$' MT !io$s see *ondon pivots
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) B>;) !air ? = *or =, or =, or =; *see head-and-shoulders top =1, =, 1, e$' "ar$ $i/e&ra/es *1"our "ar$, "our "ar$, aily "ar$, e$' e4!an%e% lis$( /1, /7, /17, /30, =1, =2, =3, =, =6, =Q, 1, ro Tra%ersD Club one o& Michael5s $"rea%s on $"e HNewbie Islan%H &oru/, %eo$e% $o %aily reiews an% 8$ $ool $ool a!!lia$ion >TC *see 0ro raders5 raders5 $lub !ull a &ib use a Fibonai Fibonai $ool $o %elinea$e %elinea$e a !rie !rie swin# *&ro/ *&ro/ ini$ial !rie $o &inal &inal !rie s"owin# s"owin# /ibonacci retracement leels an% /ibonacci retracement leels extension leels : R1, R2, R3, e$' resis$ane leels *o/!u$e% &ro/ !io$!oin$ &or/ulas see 8$ 0ivot-0oint /ormulas on !a#e ran#e on$ra$ion $"e $en%eny &or a series o& large range days $o be &ollowe% by one or /ore small range days ran#e e4!ansion $"e $en%eny &or a series o& small range days $o be &ollowe% by one or /ore large range days re&le$ion !a$$ern !a$$ern a !a$$ern in w"i" !rie re$raes beyon% $"e %4 one, one, $"e 1008 fib retracement, retracement, an% $"e 12O8 fib extension, rea$in# a HreerseH %4 re#ular %ier#ene $ren%reersal %ier#ene *see type = divergence reersal !ro&ile an early%ay !rie swin# *u! or %own, $a-in# ou$ a -ey aily or o r =LK !riin#, no$ s!o$ Fore4 !riin# XKJ 100 yen !rie% in )'' %ollars *>=LK !riin#, no$ s!o$ Fore4 !riin# no$e( $"is "ar$ is $"e inerse o& a s$an%ar% );J> Fore4 "ar$ %!
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