Hydro-Meteorological Hazards in the Philippines, Weather Forecasting, & Facts about Climate Change

Hydro-Meteorological Hazards in the Philippines, Weather Forecasting & Facts about Climate Change OSCAR C. TABADA

“Information Education Campaign on Disaster Awareness and Preparedness for the Employees of Sun Star Cebu ” P. Del Rosario, Cebu City

December 20, 2013

Welcome to

PLANETARIUM and STANDARD TIME SERVICE

THE OZONE LAYER

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WHAT LIES AHEAD . . . OF US Oscar C. Tabada PAGASA Visayas

Climate Information Monitoring and Prediction Center (CLIMPC) Climatology & Agrometeorology Branch (CAB) PAGASA-DOST

MTSAT Dec. 20, 2013

Daily Rainfall forecast for Dec. 20 - 26, 2013

8Am Fri Dec. 20, 2013

LPA

8Pm Fri Dec. 20, 2013

LPA

8Am Sat Dec. 21, 2013

8Pm Sat Dec. 21, 2013

8Am Sun Dec. 22, 2013

8Pm Sun Dec. 22, 2013

8Am Mon Dec. 23, 2013

8Pm Mon Dec. 23, 201

8Am Tue Dec. 24, 201

8Pm Tue Dec. 24, 201

8Am Wed Dec. 25, 201

LPA

8Pm Wed Dec. 25, 201

LPA

8Am Thu Dec. 26, 2013

LPA

8Pm Thu Dec. 26, 2013

LPA

CLIMATE OUTLOOK January – April 2014

Widescreen Presentation Tips and tools for creating and presenting wide format slides

Percent of Normal Interpretation for Monthly Rainfall PERCENTAGE

RAINFALL CONDITION

< 40%

way below normal

41% - 80%

below normal

81% - 120%

near normal

> 120 % Percent of Normal =

above normal Actual Rainfall Normal Rainfall

x 100%

Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: Nov 22, 2013

Normal (mm) (1981-2010)

January 2014

Forecast (mm)

% Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: Nov 22, 2013

Normal (mm) (1981-2010)

February 2014 Forecast (mm)

% Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: Nov 22, 2013

Normal (mm) (1981-2010)

March 2014 Forecast (mm)

% Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: Nov 22, 2013

Normal (mm) (1981-2010)

April 2014 Forecast (mm)

% Normal

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook (updated November 2013) neutral ENSO conditions through the rest of 2013 and into early 2014, with a warming tendency during northern spring and summer 2014. Development weak El Ninowinter conditions appears ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northernof Hemisphere 2013-14. possible by the middle of 2014.

FORECAST

TEMPERATURE

MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF LUZON

14-25 C

VISAYAS

LOWLANDS AREAS OF LUZON

23- 32 C

19-33 C MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF MINDANAO

17-28 C

LOWLANDS AREAS OF MINDANAO

19-33 C

Weather Systems that may affect the country (January – December) January - February

March – October

Northeast (NE) monsoon Tail-end of Cold Front Easterlies Low Pressure Area Ridge of High Pressure Area • Tropical cyclone

• NE to Southwest (SW) monsoon • ITCZ * • Easterly wave • Low Pressure Area • Ridge of High Pressure Area • Tropical cyclone

• • • • •

ITCZ * - Intertropical Convergence Zone

Weather Systems that may affect the country (January – December) October - December • • • • • • •

Northeast (NE) monsoon Tail-end of Cold Front Low Pressure Area Easterly Wave Ridge of High Pressure Area Tropical cyclone ITCZ*

ITCZ * - Intertropical Convergence Zone

TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORECAST

MONTH

FORECAST

December

1 or 2

January

1 or 2

February

Slim Chance

March

0 or 1

April

0 or 1

NAMES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES* I 2009 2013 2017 2021

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

AURING BISING CRISING DANTE EMONG FABIAN GORIO HUANING ISANG JOLINA KIKO LABUYO MARING NANDO ODETTE PAOLO QUEDAN RAMIL SANTI TINO URDUJA VINTA WILMA YOLANDA ZORAIDA

II 2010 2014 2018 2022 AGATON BASYANG CALOY DOMENG ESTER FLORITA GLENDA HENRY INDAY JOSE KATRING LUIS MARIO NENENG OMPONG PAENG QUEENIE RUBY SENIANG TOMAS USMAN VENUS WALDO YAYANG ZENY

II 2011 2015 2019 2023

AMANG BETTY CHEDENG DODONG EGAY FALCON GORING HANNA INENG JENNY KABAYAN LANDO MARILYN NONOY ONYOK PERLA QUIEL RAMON SARAH TISOY URSULA VIRING WENG YOYOY ZIGZAG

* REVISED LIST OF NAMES FOR TC WITHIN THE PAR (Effective June 2012)

II 2012 2016 2020 2024 AMBO BUTCHOY CARINA DINDO ENTENG FERDIE GENER HELEN IGME JULIAN KAREN LAWIN MARCE NINA OFEL PEPITO QUINTA ROLLY SIONY TONYO ULYSSES VICKY WARREN YOYONG ZOSIMO

AUXILIARY LIST 2013 ALAMID BRUNO CONCHING DOLOR ERNIE FLORANTE GERARDO HERNAN ISKO JEROME

2014 AGILA BAGWIS CHITO DIEGO ELENA FELINO GUNDING HARRIET INDANG JESSA

2015 ABE BERTO CHARO DADO ESTOY FELION GENING HERMAN IRMA JAIME

2016 ALAKDAN BALDO CLARA DENCIO ESTONG FELIPE GARDO HELING ISMAEL JULIO

REVISED LIST OF NAMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES WITHIN THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (Effective January 2013) 1

2

3

4

2010 / 2014 2011 / 2015 2012 / 2016 2009/2013 2018 / 2022 2019 / 2023 2020 / 2024 2017 /2021 AGATON BASYANG CALOY DOMENG ESTER FLORITA GLENDA HENRY INDAY JOSE KATRING LUIS MARIO NENENG OMPONG PAENG QUEENIE RUBY SENIANG TOMAS USMAN VENUS WALDO YAYANG ZENY

AMANG BETTY CHEDENG DODONG EGAY FALCON GORING HANNA INENG JENNY KABAYAN LANDO MARILYN NONOY ONYOK PERLA QUIEL RAMON SARAH TISOY URSULA VIRING WENG YOYOY ZIGZAG

AMBO BUTCHOY CARINA DINDO ENTENG FERDIE GENER HELEN IGME JULIAN KAREN LAWIN MARCE NINA OFEL PEPITO QUINTA ROLLY SIONY TONYO ULYSSES VICKY WARREN YOYONG ZOSIMO

AURING BISING CRISING DANTE (TS) EMONG (TS) FABIAN (TD) GORIO (TS) HUANING (TY) ISANG JOLINA KIKO LABUYO MARING NANDO ODETTE PAOLO QUEDAN RAMIL SANTI TINO URDUJA VINTA WILMA YOLANDA

TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES 250

Number

1971-00

150

1961-90

1951-80

200

51-80 61-90 71-00

100 50 0

LUZON Luzon

Visayas VISAYAS

Mindanao MINDANAO

CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ENTERING THE PAR BY QUARTER

MONTHLY AVERAGE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY 5 4

3.4 3.4 3.1 2.7

3 1.5

2 1 0

0.5

JAN

2.3 1.4

0.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

JUL

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

)

Number of TropicalCyclones

250

Number of Landfalling TC's

200

Number of non-Landfalling TC's 150

80

67

77 88

100

87 46

50

0 Monthly

Mean

30 10 17

6 13

9 9

18 11

34

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.5

1.1

126

130

71

48 Jun

1.6

47

111

Jul

3.4

Aug

Sep

3.3

3.1

Oct

2.7

44

36

Nov

Dec

2.2

1.4

•

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set) )

Track of “RUPING”

TYPHOON YOLANDA (Nov. 6-9, 2013)

VISAYAS PAGASA REGIONAL SERVICES

S & T - Based Response Strategies to Address Extreme Weather Events

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Department of Science and Technology (DOST)

Area of Jurisdiction NL-PRSD Tuguegarao

NCR-PRSD

SL-PRSD

Quezon City

Legazpi

Vis-PRSD Mactan

M-PRSD

El Salvador

Davao City

LEGEND:

VPRSD LOCATION OF STATION

PRSD Office

SYNOP

Synoptic Station

1. Mactan 2. Tagbilaran 3. Dumaguete 4. Guiuan 5. Catbalogan 6. Tacloban 7. Borongan 8. Maasin 9. Roxas 10. Iloilo 11. Pto Princesa 12. Cuyo 13. Coron 14. Pagasa Is. 15. San Jose

Upper Air Radar FFC Agromet Agromet

RADAR 1.Mactan 2.Guiuan AGROMET 1. Mambusao 2. La Granja 3. Dumangas 4. VSU-Baybay 5. SPCP-Aborlan

UPPER-AIR 1. Mactan 2. Pto Princesa

Monitoring Capabilities PAGASA SURFACE SYNOPTIC STATIONS

ITBAYAT

PAGASA AGROMET STATIONS

BASCO CALAYAN LAOAG VIGAN

APARRI TUGUEGARAO PALANAN

BAGUIO DAGUPAN

BALER CLSU-MUNOZ CABANATUAN CLARK JOMALIG INFANTA CAVITE ALABAT DAET TAGAYTAY VIRAC AMBULONG CSSAC-PILI CALAPAN SN. LEGASPI EXISTING SURFACE FRANCISCO CATARMAN ROMBLON SYNOPTIC STATION MASBATE SAN JOSE CATBALOGAN BORONGAN AUTOMATIC WEATHER CORON STATION ROXAS TACLOBAN GUIUAN ILOILO MACTAN MAASI SIARGAO N TAGBILARAN PTO. SURIGAO PRINCESA BUTUAN CAG. DE HINATUA DIPOLOG ORO N MALAYBALAY BALABAC IBA SUBIC

ZAMBOANGA

MMSU-BATAC ISU-ECHAGUE

DMMMSU-LA UNION

CASIGURAN

COTABATO

DA-BASCO

DAVAO

HA. LUISITATARLAC

BSU-LA TRINIDAD NVSIT-BAYOMBONG CLSU-MUNOZ CENTRAL AGROMET-QUEZON CITY

TAGAYTAY

UPLB-NAS

CSSAC-PILI UEPBVHS-BULAN CATARMAN PSPC-MAMBUSAO VISCA-BAYBAY

SPCP-ABORLAN MSU-MARAWI TRRC-TAGUM PCA-BAGO OSHIRO

GEN. SANTOS

       

Visibility Clouds Temperature Relative Humidity Rainfall Wind Speed and Wind Direction Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Phenomena

Monitoring Capabilities PAGASA WEATHER RADAR STATIONS

PAGASA UPPER-AIR STATIONS

BASCO

APARRI

LAOAG

BAGUIO BALER TANAY

SBMA VIRAC

TAGAYTAY

LEGASPI BUSUANGA

GUIUAN ILOILO

QUEZON

CEBU

PALAWAN

MACTAN

HINATUAN

ZAMBOANGA

TAMPAKAN

DAVAO

Basco

DOPPLER RADAR PROGRAM

Aparri

15 in 2015

Baguio

Baler

SBMA

Virac Tagaytay

LEGEND: OP/CALAMITY FUND PAGASA 2007 GAA JICA-PROPOSED

UPGRADING BY DOST-GIA FUND FUTURE PLAN

Guiuan BUSUANGA

ILOILO CEBU Hinatuan

QUEZON

ZAMBOANGA

South Cotabato

PAGASA VISAYAS FORECASTERS WORKSTATION • ILCD TV monitors for weather models, MTSAT & RADAR panoramic display.

Cebu Doppler Radar

TS “SENDONG”

Mactan Radar Image at 11:48Pm Dec. 16, 2011

FLOODINGS IN CAGAYAN DE ORO AND MINDANAO DURING TS SENDONG OF DEC. 17, 2011

Do we have to wait for this to happen? Cagayan de Oro City Flooding

Do we have to wait for this to happen? Cagayan de Oro City Flooding

At 1:45 PM, Dec. 4, 2012 the center of the typhoon PABLO was located, based on the Mactan Doppler Radar, at 70 KMS East of Siquijor Island. Typhoon PABLO Radar Image

EYE

• TY Bopha was the lowest latitude typhoon since Typhoon Vamei in 2001 (1.4° above eq.). • TY Bopha became a typhoon at just 3.8° from the equator.

Impacts of TY PABLO

Affected Population Families

Person

Baranggays

Municipalities

Provinces

711,682

6,243,998

3,064

318

34 provinces of Regions IV-B, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI, XII , CARAGA & ARMM

Casualties Dead 1067 725 identified 342 unidentified

Injured

Missing

2,666

834

Damage (PhP) Infrastructure 7,565,044,810.00

Agriculture

Private

TOTAL

26,526,663,474.07

2,857,522,703.00

36,949,230,987.07

Source: NDRRMC, as of 25 December 2012 SitRep #38

Dumaguete Pier after storm Pablo SOURCE: http://proudlydumaguete.blogspot.com/2012/12/dumaguete-pier-after-storm-pablo.html

Lusapon, Boljoon, Cebu SOURCE: http://www.demotix.com/news/1658858/waves-wreck-seaside-village-typhoon-bopha-spares-most-cebu#media1658625

Wrath of Typhoon “PABLO” (Dec. 4, 2012)

Dec. 4, 2012 YES, WE HAVE NO BANANAS TODAY A mother and her daughter wash their clothes next to flattened banana trees at a plantation in Monte Vista town, Compostela Valley province, on Wednesday after Typhoon “Pablo” ravaged the province. Pablo destroyed 70 to 80 percent of plantations mostly bananas for export, said Gov. Arthur Uy. AFP SOURCE: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/319131/waters-rose-so-suddenly

A man looks at his damaged house destroyed by strong winds brought about by Typhoon Bopha in Butuan City, Agusan del Norte, in the southern Philippine island of Mindanao. The death toll from a typhoon that ravaged the Philippines has jumped to 274 with hundreds more missing, as rescuers battled to reach areas cut off by floods and mudslides SOURCE: http://ph.news.yahoo.com/photos/pablo-s-wrath-lives-taken-destruction-widespread-slideshow/officials-described-scenestotal-devastation-caused-philippines-worst-photo-183230520.html

Dec. 4, 2012 Bodies of flash flood victims lie on the ground as villagers look for their missing relatives on Wednesday after Typhoon Pablo hit New Bataan in Compostela province. Pablo ravaged parts of Mindanao killing over 200 people, but many more are reported missing. Photo: Reuters SOURCE: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/12/05/12/238-dead-hundreds-missing-due-pablo

LANDFALL of TYPHOON YOLANDA November 6-9, 2013

Images from: PAGASA Mactan Doppler Radar

TYPHOON YOLANDA (HAIYAN) 2413 Nov. 8, 2013

Cebu

TYPHOON YOLANDA (HAIYAN) 2413 Nov. 8, 2013

Cebu

November 8, 2013 4:11 AM Suluan Island, Guiuan, Eastern Samar

Maximum sustained wind/Gustiness: 225/260 kph Movement & speed: WNW at 39 kph

November 8, 2013 4:39 AM Homonhon Island, Eastern Samar

Maximum sustained wind/Gustiness: 225/260 kph Movement & speed: WNW at 39 kph

November 8, 2013 4:48 AM Calicoan Island, Guiuan, Eastern Samar

Maximum sustained wind/Gustiness: 225/260 kph Movement & speed: WNW at 39 kph

November 8, 2013 5:30 AM Manicani Island, Guiuan, Eastern Samar

Maximum sustained wind/Gustiness: 235/275 kph Movement & speed: WNW at 39 kph

November 8, 2013 6:50 AM San Roque, Tolosa, Leyte

Maximum sustained wind/Gustiness: 235/275 kph Movement & speed: WNW at 39 kph

November 8, 2013 9:41 AM Daanbantayan-Medellin, Cebu

Maximum sustained wind/Gustiness: 235/275 kph Movement & speed: WNW at 39 kph

November 8, 2013 10:28 AM Santa Fe, Bantayan Island, Cebu

Maximum sustained wind/Gustiness: 235/275 kph Movement & speed: WNW at 39 kph

November 8, 2013 12:00 PM Mangalabong Island, Concepcion, Iloilo

Maximum sustained wind/Gustiness: 215/250 kph Movement & speed: WNW at 40 kph

HOUR-BY-HOUR TRACK

Impacts of TY YOLANDA Affected Population Families

Person

Barangays

Municipalities

Provinces

3,424,593

16,078,181

12,139

574

44 provinces of Regions IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, X, XI, CARAGA

Casualties Dead

Injured

Missing

6,092

27,665

1,779

Damage (PhP) Infrastructure 18,226,835,334.29

Agriculture

TOTAL

18,354,150,996.38

36,662,086,330.67 Source: NDRRMC, as of 20 December 2013 SitRep #69

Impacts: Damaged PAGASA Doppler radar in Guiuan, Eastern Samar

photo - credit: AFP Central Command from their Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.35670128446730 6.1073741835.323973651073403&type=1

Guiuan, Eastern Samar

Source: rappler.com

Vehicles float in floodwaters Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013, following the devastation left by Typhoon Haiyan that hit Tacloban city in Leyte province in central Philippines.

T “YOLANDA” (HAIYAN) Nov 8, 2013 Tacloban

A survivor walks beside a ship that was washed ashore hitting makeshift houses near an oil depot in Tacloban city, Leyte province central Philippines, Nov. 11, 2013. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

Bantayan Island

Source: http://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolated

Bantayan Island

Source: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news

A resident runs past an uprooted tree amidst strong winds as Typhoon Haiyan pounded Cebu City, in central Philippines on Nov. 8, 2013. (Jay Directo/AFP/Getty Images)



THUNDERSTORM



MONSOON



COLD FRONT



INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)



TROPICAL CYCLONE

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Cloud that produces Thunderstorm is the Cumulonimbus Cloud 12,000 m

9,000 m

6,000 m

3,000 m

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)



LIGHTNING



HEAVY RAINFALL



HAIL



TORNADO

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Forked Lightning

Crooked lightning bolts discharge from cloud to ground or cloud to air

Sheet Lightning

Clouds, rain blocks forked lightning bolt, but flash illuminates clouds.

Ball Lightning

On rare occasions, small glowing balls loops from the cloud, but quickly vanish.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

DAMAGES DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

LIGHTNING SAFETY RULES (INDOORS)

STAY AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL SOCKETS, APPLIANCES, TELEVISION AND TELEPHONES; SHUT-OFF THE MAIN POWER SWITCH. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS, WATER FAUCETS, PIPES AND ELECTRICAL OUTLETS.

LIGHTNING SAFETY RULES (OUTDOORS) BE ALERT OF THE SIGNS OF THE IMPENDING STORM GET AWAY FROM TREES OR TALL OBJECTS. STAY AWAY FROM HILLTOPS, BENCHES AND OPEN FIELDS AND SEEK SHELTER IN A LOW LYING AREA SUCH AS A DITCH OR RAVINE. IF YOU ARE WITH OTHER PEOPLE, SPREAD OUT. STAY AWAY FROM WATER OR WET AREAS.

WHAT TO DO IF THERE IS NO Lightning experts invented SHELTERsafety AND YOU AREhave CAUGHT IN A a "lightning safety position" that is very THUNDERSTORM?

important to know if you are caught in a thunder storm and you can't find a shelter. This position looks hard, but it could save your life. There are several reasons for doing it.  It makes you a smaller target.  With your heels together, if lightning hits

the ground, it goes through the closest foot, up to your heel and then transfers to the other foot and goes back to the ground again. If you don't put your feet together, lightning could go through your heart and kill you.  You put your hands over your ears to protect them from thunder.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Rolling Hills, Mandaue, January 25, 2011

Impacts of flooding

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Phase 1: Thunderstorm Warning System (TSTM-WS)

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY No.2 #VPRSD 4:30 PM JULY 20, 2013

Expect thunderstorm over Dumanjug #Cebu, Ubay #Bohol and nearby areas within 1-2 hours. All are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains, gusty winds, lightning and possible flashfloods. Keep monitoring for updates.

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY No.3 #VPRSD 6:20 PM JULY 20, 2013

Expect thunderstorm over Lapulapu, Cordova, Mandaue, Cebu City, Talisay, Minglanilla, Consolacion, Liloan, Compostela, Danao #Cebu and nearby areas within 1-2 hours. All are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains, gusty winds, lightning and possible flashfloods. Keep monitoring for updates.

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY No.3 #VPRSD 8:52 PM JULY 14, 2013

Expect thunderstorm over Escalante City, Toboso, Calatrava #NegrosOccidental and nearby areas which may persist for 1-2 hours. All are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains, gusty winds, lightning and possible flashfloods. Keep monitoring for updates.

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY No.2 #VPRSD 5:40 PM JULY 14, 2013 Expect thunderstorm over Himamaylan City, Kabankalan City, Ilog #NegrosOccidental and nearby areas which may persist for 1-2 hours. All are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains, gusty winds, lightning and possible flashfloods. Keep monitoring for updates.

HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS:

TORNADO(Ipo-ipo)

Mammatus clouds – a precursory sign of an impending tornado

HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS:

TORNADO SAMPLE PICTURES OF DAMAGES DUE TO TORNADOES

(BUHAWI)

TORNADO AND TYPHOON Atmospheric Phenomena

Maximum Wind Speed (kph)

TORNADO

500 kph

Less than 20 – 30 min 1km

TYPHOON

300 kph

1,000 km

Diameter (kms)

Lifespan

5 – 7 days

HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS:

HAIL (CHUNKS OF ICE FROM THE SKY)

SW Monsoon Enhanced by T MARING (Aug. 17-21, 2013)

Aug 6, 2012: Torrential rains due to the SW Monsoon (Habagat ) induced by by T “GENER” have flooded Manila and neighboring Provinces, displacing Tens of thousands of residents with a death toll of 57 persons.

….and The Wedding

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Satellite Picture of Typhoon Feria Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

THE WINDS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE

MANILA

TYPHOON PASSING NORTH OF THE PLACE (CLOSELY WATCH FOR THE WIND DIRECTIONS AS THE TYPHOON APROACHES);

THE WINDS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE

MANILA

TYPHOON PASSING NORTH OF THE PLACE (CLOSELY WATCH FOR THE WIND DIRECTIONS AS THE TYPHOON APROACHES); BACKING WINDS DUE WEST

HAZARDS DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES

Storm Surge

5 METER (16 FT) OF STORM SURGE STRIKES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING HURRICANE ELOISE, 1975

T “YOLANDA” (HAIYAN) Nov 8, 2013

T “YOLANDA” (HAIYAN) Nov 8, 2013

Residents of coastal communities in Leyte were warned as early as two years ago of severe flooding from storm surges reaching as high as 12 meters (39.37 feet).

Survivors pass by two large boats after they were washed ashore by strong waves caused by Typhoon Haiyan in Tacloban city, Leyte province central Philippines on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

Computed Storm Surge, Initial run time: 8:00AM, 07 Nov 2013

Forecast Storm Surge, Initial run time: 8:00AM, 07 Nov 2013 (JMA model)

Public Storm Warning Signal Number

2

 A moderate tropical cyclone will affect the locality.

 Winds of 61 and up to 100 KPH may be expected in at least 24 hours.

Public Storm Warning Signal Number

3

 A strong tropical cyclone will affect the locality.

 Winds of 101 and up to 185

KPH may be expected in at least 18 hours.

Public Storm Warning Signal Number

4

 A very strong typhoon may threaten or affect the locality.

 Very strong winds of more than

185 KPH may be expected in at least 12 hours.

Wind direction: Northwest

TY

Wind direction: Southwest

TY

Why the frequent floods, and how to prevent them?

Why does it flood so easily these days?

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA (Nov. 17, 2013)

Dec. 13, 2013: SNOW In Egypt for the First Time In 112 Years

For the first time in 112 years, it snows in Cairo

Climate change. The earth’s temperature is rising because the heat emitted by the sun is trapped by greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other gases) in the atmosphere. The higher temperature is melting the polar ice caps, causing more water to evaporate. The atmosphere becomes soaked with moisture. More moisture in the clouds equals heavier rains.

The Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.

Methane Carbon Dioxide

CO2

CH4

Nitrous Oxide

NO2 SF6

H2O Water vapor

HFCs PFCs

Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate! The image part with relationship ID rId6 was not found in the file.

CO2 N2O CO2N O CO2 HFCs 2 CO2 CH4 4 HFCsCH PFCs N O SF CH CO 2 CH 6 2 CO2 4 4 COCO CO 2 2 SF6 2 COC SF6 2 O2

More intense and longer droughts since 1970 Increase intensity of tropical cyclone activity since 1970.

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

Hot days, hot nights, & heat waves have become more frequent. Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report:

And Wear Pajamas to bed

FACEBOOK

When Will We Feel Climate Change? Slide Copy 1

Slide Copy 2

Slide Copy 3

Slide Copy 4

Slide Copy 5

With the ice caps melting, more water is poured into the oceans, thus raising their levels. The seas invade low-lying areas. If the melting of the ice does not stop, low-lying islands will disappear; the bigger ones will have their areas reduced as the seas invade their shores.

Global Projections of future changes in Climate

Now.

2005

AUGUST 2012

Melting Polar Ice Caps Create A Lake on Top of the World

Taken on July 25, 2013. A North Pole Environmental Observatory Webcam Captures a melt pond at the North Pole, Sea Ice in Arctic.

Sea Level Rise Projections Sea level rises caused by water expansion due to warming of oceans, and melting of glaciers and ice sheets are projected to increase by 18 to 59 centimetres by 2100.

Warming of oceans

Melting of glaciers and ice sheets

18 cm – 59 cm

Simulations + 4 Meters + 8 Meters + 12 Meters

Plan for the worst. Hope for the best.

Cebu City, the Philippines

CEBU CITY

CEBU CITY

CEBU CITY

CEBU CITY

Iloilo City, the Philippines

Fig. 2 – Port of Iloilo

TACLOBAN CITY

TACLOBAN CITY

TACLOBAN CITY

TACLOBAN CITY

2rd Factor Illegal logging,

Greedy loggers have ravaged our forests and most of our mountains are now bald. Without trees, there are no roots to hold the soil together. Thus, rainwater easily erodes the mountainsides, carrying the topsoil down to the streams and rivers below.

As the water flows down the waterways, it drops the silt it is carrying. Over the years, this silt has made the waterways shallower so that they can hold less and less water. They therefore easily overflow their banks.

Floodwaters are now brown, unlike before when they were clearer and cleaner. That is because of the silt they are carrying. When the floods recede, they leave a thick layer of mud. That is also the mud that they deposit at the bottom of the waterways.

3rd Factor Rapid Urbanization

With the development of more housing subdivisions on what were once rice fields, the construction of more office buildings, shopping malls and residential condominiums in the cities, and the paving of more streets and parking lots, a layer of nonporous concrete covers bigger and bigger parts of the land. Thus, rain and floodwaters cannot pierce this layer to seep through the ground and into the underground aquifers as they used to do. They have to stay atop all that concrete. The result: floods.

4th Factor Inadequate drainage system. The planners did not anticipate the big volumes of water that would inundate the land. The drainage system, therefore, cannot drain the rain and floodwaters fast enough.

The fifth factor is GARBAGE specifically the bad habit of many Filipinos to throw their trash anywhere, and especially into waterways.

What can we do to improve the situation? 1. Reduce all forms of burning so that the emission of greenhouse gases is reduced, and stop or slow down the rise in the earth’s temperature. That will help stop or slow down the melting of the polar ice caps and the rising levels of the oceans. 2. Motor vehicles, power plants, factories burning coal, and planters burning huge tracts of the Amazon rainforest are the worst polluters of the earth’s atmosphere. 3. Leave more areas open to agriculture, parks, backyard gardens, and other open spaces to leave rainwater more room to seep into the ground.

4. Stop all logging, legal and illegal, as well as charcoalmaking. Charcoal makers cut even small trees. Dredge waterways and lakes. 5. Unclog drainage pipes and keep them clear of garbage. Improve the drainage system. 6. Be good citizens and always follow laws.

How to Mitigate the Adverse Impact

THE ECOTOWN

Enhancement Water Security of Carbon Stocks Food Security Renewable Energy from: Enhancement of Genetic Resources Hydro-meteorological hazard mitigation Hydro Green Industries and Eco-tourism Solar & Wind

P. S. things to remember…

Building Resilience (flexible) always involves taking some risks….

Resilience reduces the burden placed on governments

Resilience requires Creative Innovation

Building Resilience can feel a bit like this….

but when the task is shared it is realisable

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

"In the end, we will conserve only what we love, we will love only what we understand, and we will understand only what we are taught." — Baba Dioum, Senegalese conservationist

Plant more Trees!!

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prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/mactan

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