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November 1, 2017 | Author: Ervin Watzlawek | Category: Emissions Trading, International Energy Agency, Energy And Resource, Technology (General), Science
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JANUARY 2010

HPIMPACT

SPECIALREPORT

TECHNOLOGY

Continued struggles for US refiners

GAS PROCESSING DEVELOPMENTS

When carbon capture makes sense

The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme

Innovations improve gas treating

Managing equipment costs and incidents

www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com

Select 55 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RS

JANUARY 2010 • VOL. 89 NO. 1 www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com

SPECIAL REPORT: GAS PROCESSING DEVELOPMENTS

29

Advanced mercury removal technologies New technologies can cost-effectively treat ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ natural gas while protecting cryogenic equipment N. Eckersley

37

A unique natural gas processing success story

39

Equilibrium considerations in choosing a gas treating amine

Cost-effective expansion created high reliability operations C. Baker and T. Barnette

Pursue these guidelines to understand solubility S. A. Bedell

43

Cover Darwin LNG, located at Wickham Point, Darwin Australia began operation in 2006. This 3.7 MTPA facility, which employs the ConocoPhillips Optimized Cascade Process, established new design benchmarks for LNG facilities by being the first to apply high efficiency aeroderivative gas turbines and the first to use inlet air humidification to enhance production during periods of low humidity.

Designing a selective MDEA tail-gas treating unit Following these protocols will enhance sulfur recovery efficiency S. Nagpal

ENVIRONMENT

49

When does carbon capture make sense? Here are several options in which carbon capture can provide cost-effective solutions S. Ferguson

MAINTENANCE/RELIABILITY

55

HPIMPACT 15 Struggles for US refiners expected to continue 17 The EU’s ETS at a glance

Managing costs and incidents in industrial plant equipment Use this method to allogate limited maintenance resources to the most critical equipment M. Gardella, E. Egusquiza, X. Escaler and A. Goti

PLANT SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENT

63

Designing for pressure safety valves in supercritical service Use this rigorous method to prevent over-sizing R. C. Doane

PIPING

69

New explicit friction factor equation for turbulent flow in smooth pipes A simple, explicit and high-accuracy equation is presented A. Sasan-Amiri

INSTRUMENTATION

71

Implement a constrained optimal control in a conventional level controller—Part 1 Novel tuning method enables a conventional PI controller to explicitly handle the three important operational constraints of a liquid level loop in an optimal manner as well as copes with a broad range of level control from tight to averaging control M. Lee, J. Shin and J. Lee

ENGINEERING CASE HISTORIES

77

Case 54: Is it motor vibration or some other cause? It’s not always the motor causing the vibration T. Sofronas

DEPARTMENTS 7 HPIN BRIEF • 15 HPIMPACT • 19 HPINNOVATIONS • 23 HPIN CONSTRUCTION • 24 INDUSTRY FORECAST FORUM • 25 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR • 27 HPI CONSTRUCTION BOXSCORE UPDATE • 78 HPI MARKETPLACE • 81 ADVERTISER INDEX

COLUMNS 9 HPIN RELIABILITY More about unreliability, global procurement and you 11 HPIN EUROPE Duh! Business as usual will not be good for the HPI 13 HPINTEGRATION STRATEGIES Applying tuneable diode laser spectroscopy to help reduce energy consumption 82 HPIN WATER MANAGEMENT Wastewater discharge permits; What should you know?

www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com Houston Office: 2 Greenway Plaza, Suite 1020, Houston, Texas, 77046 USA Mailing Address: P. O. Box 2608, Houston, Texas 77252-2608, USA Phone: +1 (713) 529-4301, Fax: +1 (713) 520-4433 E-mail: [email protected] www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com Publisher Bill Wageneck [email protected] EDITORIAL Editor Les A. Kane Senior Process Editor Stephany Romanow Process Editor Tricia Crossey Reliability/Equipment Editor Heinz P. Bloch News Editor Billy Thinnes European Editor Tim Lloyd Wright Contributing Editor Loraine A. Huchler Contributing Editor William M. Goble Contributing Editor Y. Zak Friedman Contributing Editor ARC Advisory Group (various) MAGAZINE PRODUCTION Director—Editorial Production Sheryl Stone Manager—Editorial Production Chris Valdez Artist/Illustrator David Weeks Manager—Advertising Production Cheryl Willis ADVERTISING SALES See Sales Offices page 80. CIRCULATION +1 (713) 520-4440 Director—Circulation Suzanne McGehee E-mail: [email protected] SUBSCRIPTIONS

Subscription price (includes both print and digital versions): United States and Canada, one year $199, two years $349, three years $469. Outside USA and Canada, one year $239, two years $407, three years $530, digital format one year $140. Airmail rate outside North America $175 additional a year. Single copies $25, prepaid. Because Hydrocarbon Processing is edited specifically to be of greatest value to people working in this specialized business, subscriptions are restricted to those engaged in the hydrocarbon processing industry, or service and supply company personnel connected thereto. Hydrocarbon Processing is indexed by Applied Science & Technology Index, by Chemical Abstracts and by Engineering Index Inc. Microfilm copies available through University Microfilms, International, Ann Arbor, Mich. The full text of Hydrocarbon Processing is also available in electronic versions of the Business Periodicals Index. ARTICLE REPRINTS

If you would like to have a recent article reprinted for an upcoming conference or for use as a marketing tool, contact us for a price quote. Articles are reprinted on quality stock with advertisements removed; options are available for covers and turnaround times. Our minimum order is a quantity of 100. For more information about article reprints, call Cheryl Willis at +1 (713) 525-4633 or e-mail [email protected] HYDROCARBON PROCESSING (ISSN 0018-8190) is published monthly by Gulf Publishing Co., 2 Greenway Plaza, Suite 1020, Houston, Texas 77046. Periodicals postage paid at Houston, Texas, and at additional mailing office. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Hydrocarbon Processing, P.O. Box 2608, Houston, Texas 77252. Copyright © 2010 by Gulf Publishing Co. All rights reserved. Permission is granted by the copyright owner to libraries and others registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) to photocopy any articles herein for the base fee of $3 per copy per page. Payment should be sent directly to the CCC, 21 Congress St., Salem, Mass. 01970. Copying for other than personal or internal reference use without express permission is prohibited. Requests for special permission or bulk orders should be addressed to the Editor. ISSN 0018-8190/01. www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com

GULF PUBLISHING COMPANY John Royall, President/CEO Ron Higgins, Vice President Pamela Harvey, Business Finance Manager Part of Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC. Other energy group titles include: World Oil® Petroleum Economist Publication Agreement Number 40034765

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HPIN BRIEF BILLY THINNES, NEWS EDITOR

[email protected]

Foster Wheeler AG’s Global Engineering and Construction Group plans to work with PetroAlgae to develop commercial solutions that will allow existing oil refineries to convert micro-crop biomass into fuels that are functionally compatible with petroleum-based fuels in the current market. For refineries, the solutions are expected to evolve from the large-scale processing of PetroAlgae’s micro-crop biomass into green fuels. The two firms intend to create end-to-end market solutions for the large-scale production of green gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and specialty chemicals.

A recent report from Companiesandmarkets.com shows that Latin America’s thirst for oil has grown this decade. The region consumed 6.9 million bpd in 2001 and its appetite was expected to reach an estimated 7.7 million bpd by the end of 2009. For 2010, the region should have an average consumption of 7.9 million bpd, rising to approximately 8.6 million bpd by 2013. While consumption in Latin America grew from 2001–2009, overall oil production was flat and trending downward. The region produced 10.3 million bpd in 2001, while, in 2009, it averaged an estimated 9.6 million bpd. The report sees this number rising to 10.8 million bpd by 2014. Meanwhile, oil exports have been slipping because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.4 million bpd. The total is expected to fall to 1.9 million bpd by the end of 2009 and then is forecast to recover to 2.2 million bpd in 2014. Companiesandmarkets.com says the principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil. Caltex is planning to close its Kurnell refinery in Sydney, Australia. The closure signals a “cost efficiency drive” and is in response to flat earnings in 2009. “Global refiner margins remained under pressure in the second half of 2009 because of depressed demand and the expected growth in global surplus refinery capacity,” a report from Caltex said. Another contributing factor for closure was the stronger Australian dollar and higher crude oil prices that caused a precipitous drop in Caltex’s refining margins. Caltex’s margins fell to an average of about $2.60 a barrel in the second half of 2009, compared with an average of $9 in the first half. The company believes the refinery is ripe for closing because it manufactures outmoded lubricant products and faces declining feedstock sources. The closure date has yet to be announced.

Chevron Corp. recently released its budget for 2010. The company plans a $21.6 billion capital and exploratory spending program for 2010, a 5% decrease from projected 2009 expenditures. About 80% of the 2010 spending program is for upstream oil and gas exploration and production projects worldwide. Another 16% is associated with the company's downstream businesses that manufacture, transport and sell gasoline, diesel fuel and other refined products. Capital spending of $3.4 billion in 2010 is budgeted for global downstream operations. Included in the budget is $1.6 billion for projects in the US, primarily for refinery projects. Outlays in 2010 include projects in the company's refineries in Mississippi and California. The company's 50%-owned GS Caltex affiliate is also expected to continue development work on the upgrading of its Yeosu refining complex in South Korea. In support of projects to commercialize the company's large natural gas resource base, downstream expenditures will be made in 2010 on gas-to-liquids manufacturing facilities.

Mission NewEnergy Ltd. has a five-year agreement to supply Valero with up to 60 million gpy of Jatropha-extracted biodiesel. Valero has the right to double that amount to 120 million gpy and to extend the term by an additional five years. The agreement represents gross revenue potential to Mission of over $3.5 billion based on prevailing market prices, maximum volume and contract life. The first product shipment under the agreement is expected to occur during the second quarter of calendar year 2010. HP

■ IEA speaks up in Copenhagen During the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, the International Energy Agency shared its blueprint on achieving ambitious climate change goals while encouraging new investment for clean energy. With energy accounting for 84% of global CO2 emissions, the IEA said it had analyzed what needs to be done to limit the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 equivalent, in line with a 2°C increase in global temperature. The IEA believes that, unless new measures are taken, global energy-related CO2 emissions will reach 40 Gigatons (Gt) by 2030 (the world stood at 29 Gt in 2007) and continue rising thereafter, whereas climate stabilization requires emissions to peak around 2020 and then decline. According to the IEA, the world needs to retire a significant portion of today’s coal-fired electricity plants by 2030. These early closures around the world would equal today’s total coal-based power generation in Japan, the EU and the US. Around 60% of global electricity production in 2030 would need to come from a mix of renewables (37%), nuclear (18%) and plants fitted with carbon capture and storage (5%). The bulk of the emissions reduction could be delivered by energy efficiency, accounting for over half of total abatement by 2030 in the IEA 450 Scenario. According to the IEA, energy efficiency is necessary for the deployment of the more expensive, low-carbon energy supply as it helps lowering demand first. IEA said that the additional investment can be recouped by end users through lower energy bills; for industry, the additional $8.3 trillion of required investment would lead to $8.6 trillion in savings between now and 2030. HP HYDROCARBON PROCESSING JANUARY 2010

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HPIN RELIABILITY HEINZ P. BLOCH, RELIABILITY/EQUIPMENT EDITOR [email protected]

More about unreliability, global procurement and you We quite obviously believe that reading is the key to professional growth and that Mark Twain was right in stating that the man who refuses to read is no different from the illiterate person who cannot read. We also know that, while technical texts can be pricey, a book costing $100 will often alert its reader to the solution to a million-dollar problem. In that case, the return on the investment would be 10,000:1. And so, it makes a huge amount of sense to put reading in your training plans and to have either a budgetary item or subsidy for books at your refinery. Reading and reliability improvements are related and should never be separated. A recent column alluded to the reliability professional’s job of identifying critical parts and to write detailed specifications that then facilitate their global procurement. Coping with global procurement. Unless proven oth-

erwise, you should assume that the lowest bidder utilizes neither quality control nor exacting specifications. Perhaps this explains why an entity is the lowest bidder. Again, you must provide and sometimes personally write a specification for these critical parts. Once critical spare parts (even the ones originating from vendors accepting your specifications and professing to have quality control) are delivered to your facility, the job is far from finished. You must add value by personally verifying the full specification compliance of these parts. Alternatively, take responsibility by arranging for competent inspectors that verify specification compliance of the critical spare parts received. These parts should be accepted by the storeroom clerk only after compliance has been verified. The clerk can then proceed to tag and preserve the parts for future use. As to the misguided direction where some in the HPI are headed, we recently received a very strong message from a well-known asset management consultant. After visiting a major refinery, he considered its management system completely broken. He expressed the view that, due to past failures, decision makers now seem afraid to make any decision that carries even a whiff of risk—so they do nothing! He met a young reliability engineer who had poured heart and soul into a project, submitted it to the plant manager and heard nothing—not even the simple courtesy of an acknowledgment! The consultant was struck by this refinery’s bewilderment why so many of the young men and women who should be its lifeblood and future were quitting their jobs. Those who remained seemed to have the attitude, “just tell me what you want, manager, and I will get myself involved somehow.” Of course, the manager doesn’t have a clue, so nothing of substance gets done at that location. Then there are the many recurring accountability issues mentioned by the asset management consultant. In one review meeting a reliability engineer was asked why he thought he had to spend so much time in the plant during turnarounds watching things like gasket replacements. His answer? “Because I’m held directly responsible even though the fault may be solely attributable to the

carelessness of a mechanic. The mechanic will not be held accountable, but I will be.” Word spreads, and we heard rumors that, in 2007, not a single graduating engineer accepted the employment offer made by one particular major oil company. Shunning cheap temporary fixes. A huge problem at one refinery seems to be its constant pursuit of cheap temporary fixes. Managers at this location have no discernible concept of the bigger overall picture and have enunciated neither sound strategy nor anything resembling long-term improvement. At one location, a highly experienced management consultant judged as totally inoperable the functional asset hierarchy on which all cost and reliability data are based. Upon being briefed about the issue, the refinery managers considered corrective action “too difficult” and elected to again do nothing but maintain a very precarious status quo. Which gets us back to the original point and where global procurement involves all kinds of service providers. Once we identify the most successful service providers, we must ascertain that they will continue to add value every step of the way. They will join us in viewing every maintenance event as an opportunity to upgrade. Upgrading means strengthening the weakest link in the component chain whenever cost-justified. It will make the operator’s life easier and will open wide the (presently very narrow) door to operator-driven reliability (ODR). Conscientious upgrading will have merit beyond that of traditional maintenance. Whatever your job function, you can make a big difference and be an effective change agent. Start by understanding or personally defining critical spare parts and take it upon yourself to describe them in an appropriate purchase specification. Read what others have done in this regard, how they persevered and excelled not just recently, but decades ago. Other facilities became best-practices companies by having professional employees totally involved— these employees took the lead in advancing the reliability improvement process. They were among the first to view every maintenance event as an opportunity to upgrade components and machines and initiated action where it was both feasible and cost-justified. If you are not a manager, write down what you have found in the various books and articles and discuss it with your manager. If he doesn’t take action, find someone who will. And if you are a manager, do something about the critical situation we have accurately described in this column. A bit of introspection will let you know who you really are. Make adjustments in your course, which is another way of asking you to either lead, follow, or move out of the way. HP The author is HP’s Reliability/Equipment editor. A practicing engineer and ASME Life Fellow with close to 50 years of industrial experience, he advises process plants on maintenance cost-reduction and reliability upgrade issues. Of his 17 textbooks on reliability improvement subjects, 11 are still in print and are being updated periodically. His 2nd edition, Practical Lubrication for Industrial Facilities, was released in May 2009.

HYDROCARBON PROCESSING JANUARY 2010

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© 2009 Swagelok Company

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Select 63 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RS

HPIN EUROPE TIM LLOYD WRIGHT, EUROPEAN EDITOR [email protected]

Duh! Business as usual will not be good for the HPI Where the common ground between my best friends in engineerCarbon-busting initiatives. In the UK recently, whole cities ing and I becomes a parkland with fireworks is when we share the have been signing up to the new “10:10” campaign, sponsored “aha moments.” I suspect it’s from that curious, excited child in my by the makers of the Age of Stupid documentary. It encourages friends that they confide new ways of seeing things, such as saving individuals, companies and cities to reduce their greenhouse gas energy in their plants, or sharing a conventional wisdom or two. emissions by 10% in 2010. The front benches of the governing Conventional wisdoms can be both oppressive and hugely diverand opposition parties in the UK have already signed up. sionary. For example, the English were laying steel cables from a So what’s this got to do with the hydrocarbon processing indussmall beach in Southwest Cornwall to Newfoundland and the try (HPI)? Well, from what I admit is a particularly European Antipodes even as Marconi was having his “aha moments” with perspective, and from an oil industry worker living in a counan antenna at Pondhu station on a nearby try that still aims to eradicate oil largely hillside. Yes, it turns out that there was a ■ Business as usual is not from private transport and home heating scornful relative of the “aha moment” for by 2020, I think part of our industry (the a sad lot of investors in this epic-age, deep- an option anymore for the HPI), if not all, is heading for one of these sea, transglobal telegram cable project. Let’s “Duh! experiences.” HPI or modern industry. call it the “Duh! experience.” The International Energy Agency (IEA), financed by the OECD to warn The golden age of ‘Duh’! We live in a golden age of these on energy security and climate change, says that a delay of just “duh” moments; just think subprime. The stupidity of stacking a few years in enacting a massive decarbonization of the energy up derivatives on the back of people encouraged to lie about their industry could render a safe outcome for the world’s population creditworthiness is enormous, and with, hindsight, it stops one in “completely out of reach.” If everything even vaguely on the one’s tracks. After the fact, there’s this rush of common sense, like table for Copenhagen had been enacted, we’d still be in line for air entering a vacuum. In the sphere of energy and sustainability, a scenario that calls for significantly more than a 2°C increase in the Dubai crisis ticks all the boxes of a “Duh! experience.” global temperatures—the level at which it is hoped would avoid a dangerous outcome. Déjà vu all over again. At first, I get it. The United Arab And yet, major energy companies, large refiners and other Emirates, the world’s second largest emitter of carbon dioxide vested interests are still trying to stop the US and Australia from (CO2) from energy per capita, decides to diversify its economy. participating in any meaningful way, with their pump-top leaflets, questionable rallies and constructed controversies. Well, they The “resource curse” tells us that not much good comes from can have business as usual. OECD oil demand will continue to having too much oil in centralized hands. fall from its peak in 2005 because the costs are just so burdenBut for Dubai to diversify by building a long-haul tourist dessome. But sea levels, says the IEA, will eventually shut down every tination and business hub with the most carbon-intensive attraccoastal refiner under its business as usual, or “reference scenario.” tions and accommodations imaginable, and at a time like this? (As if that was all we would lose!) Consider that, since 2003 and with the worst dry period on record And for the bright engineers who love the “aha moment” of solvlocally, Australia has been desperately struggling to drought-proof ing real problems, the shame is they don’t get to. The $10.5 trillion of its desert and even its pastoral communities. The sandy, city state new investment to achieve the IEA’s alternative scenario, and to keep of Dubai, meanwhile, has produced the innovative chilled swimprojected warming to below 2°C, is a journey full of real challenge. ming pool, a shopping mall ski resort and desalinated irrigation It’s a journey that would reunite engineering with the enlightfor a golf course. enment project set when the institutes and great academies were being formed, which is of making the world a better place for all Holiday destinations. I do know people who’ve taken a humanity. HP vacation in the Middle East, but this idea hasn’t exactly tickled my family’s fancy. Inspired by Ron Oxburgh, the former nonLITERATURE CITED executive chairman of Shell, my family hasn’t traveled on vacation 1 Eurobarometer Survey, December 2, 2009. by air since early 2006. Along with 63% of the European citizens, we’re convinced that climate change is a “very serious” issue.1 With a family goal to reduce our carbon footprint, even short-haul The author is HP’s European Editor. He has been active as a reporter and conference chair in the European downstream industry since 1997, before which he was a flights are the worst CO2 budget busters there are. I’m not saying feature writer and reporter for the UK broadsheet press and BBC radio. Mr. Wright that Dubai’s going to weep for not having the Wrights to stay, but lives in Sweden and is the founder of a local climate and sustainability initiative. we’re not on our own over here. HYDROCARBON PROCESSING JANUARY 2010

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HPINTEGRATION STRATEGIES PAULA HOLLYWOOD, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR [email protected]

Applying tuneable diode laser spectroscopy to help reduce energy consumption According to the US Department of Energy, industry accounts for about a third of all energy used in the US. Despite the recent drop in energy prices, energy remains the second leading cost pressure (behind only raw materials) affecting manufacturers. Some of the biggest culprits are incinerators, crackers, process heaters and other energy-intensive combustion-based equipment. The harsh operating conditions associated with combustion analysis applications can eat up a sensor in no time, resulting in inaccurate and unreliable sensor measurements. This can make it nearly impossible to control these processes adequately. However, new analysis techniques, such as tuneable diode laser spectroscopy (TDLS), can improve efficiency, maximize throughput, reduce emissions and improve safety in combustion analysis applications. ABB, Siemens, Vaisala and Yokogawa all offer TDLS technology for process measurements. Reduce energy consumption. Most energy-intensive operations, such as those found in a refinery or chemical plant, experience considerable variability in energy consumption due to changing operating conditions, equipment degradation, fluctuating market conditions and inefficient control strategies. As a result, plants typically consume more energy than necessary, yet are unable to improve efficiency due to the inability to collect and analyze real-time performance data. Frequently, the goals of optimizing efficiency and maximizing throughput are at odds with the need to reduce emissions and ensure plant and personnel safety. Effective energy management is essential for a “triple bottom line” business strategy that addresses social, economic and environmental concerns. TDLS contributes to a triple bottom line strategy by helping increase throughput and reduce energy costs, while supporting safe and environmentally responsible operations. Advanced process control (APC) systems require sensitive and accurate process measurements in real time, or near-real time. APC reduces process variability and inefficiency, improves product quality and provides for more stable operations. With few exceptions, current process analytical techniques lack the speed, accuracy and sensitivity to provide reliable measurements for APC. Online optimization goes beyond APC to optimize a process based on an economic objective function. This is becoming more important in applications where profitability depends

TABLE 1. Features and benefits of TDLS technology Feature

Benefit

In-situ analysis

Sample conditioning not required

Fast response

Real-time data for APC

Tuneable laser

Interference-free analysis

Non-contact sensor

Suitable for operation in harsh environments

Optical sensor

Low maintenance

upon improving quality while maximizing material utilization and minimizing energy usage. Historically, obtaining reliable quality measurements in time to impact control has been an issue in combustion control applications. The current best practice utilizes a zirconia sensor for point measurement of oxygen. In applications requiring multiple measurements, point measurement cannot provide a representative sample, making it both error-prone and potentially dangerous. Process oxygen measurement requires samples to be extracted and then transported to an analyzer for conditioning and analysis. This slows response time, adds cost and degrades measurement accuracy. TDLS in combustion analysis. Inefficient combustion can be

attributed to the air/fuel ratio. Too much excess air (air rich) results in efficiency loss and increased NOx emissions, while too little excess air (fuel rich) is downright dangerous. Carbon monoxide measurement provides an indication of fuel-rich conditions, while oxygen measurement indicate air-rich conditions. The optimum control point is the lowest possible excess air value that does not cause the system to enter into an unsafe condition or violate emissions limits. TDLS technology is an innovative measurement technique that utilizes semiconductor lasers to detect a variety of gases at trace levels in the part-per-million (ppm) or part-per-billion (ppb) range. Tuneable lasers, which enable miniaturization of transmission and receiving units, provide highly sensitive, quantitative measurements with fast response times without the need for recalibration. The lasers can be tuned to detect specific constituents independent of process gas concentrations. TDLS enables high-performance measurements in real time, even in challenging process environments. Exact performance specifications may vary somewhat according to supplier; however, the benefits are universal (Table 1). To date, the most widely reported application of TDLS has been for combustion control. However, the technology potentially offers much wider applicability. In refineries, it can monitor CO, CH4 and O2 in burner flameout applications, and identify process tube leaks. Energy can be the largest component of a manufacturer’s cost structure. Despite the recent drop in energy prices, costs are expected to trend upward over the long term. A willingness to apply state-of-the-art technologies can have a significant impact on the success of energy management programs. Technologies, such as TDLS, that can improve performance and provide quick ROI, can have a significant impact on the bottom line. HP

The author, a senior analyst at the ARC Advising Group in Dedham, Massachusetts, has nearly 30 years’ experience in the areas of sales and product marketing in industrial field instruments that utilize a vast array of technologies including magnetic, Coriolis, radar, electrochemistry, capacitance and ultrasonic.

HYDROCARBON PROCESSING JANUARY 2010

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HPIMPACT BILLY THINNES, NEWS EDITOR

[email protected]

Struggles for US refiners expected to continue

project at Yanbu and a major refinery upgrade at Wilhelmshaven in Europe.” The Deutsche Bank analysts agree with this train of thought, given that current US utilization rates are at 80% and demand continues to be down (Fig. 1), with total products demand at its lowest level at the end of October since 1998. “The brave are getting long with the idea that things cannot get any worse—we disagree and have cited the example of secularly challenged industries, such as newspapers versus the Internet, to support this idea,” the report said. “The bull argument is that oil demand recovers (it is not, despite third quarter GDP growth) and that will cause OPEC to increase production (they already have) and that causes wider heavy-light to widen (it has not).”

In a recent refining industry piece, Deutsche Bank analysts took a gander at the US refining industry and wondered if the worst has passed for refiners. In short, they think not. ConocoPhillips CEO Jim Mulva told the analysts that the company will not engage in any refinery sales, with the hope that the market for refiners will turn around over the next two years. If there is no market improvement, Mr. Mulva said ConocoPhillips would simply shutter the refineries in question. Deutsche Bank sees this as good news for independents, “if they can last that long.” The report also said that Mr. Mulva is considering “canceling both a major Saudi refinery

While the current 80% utilization rate has resulted in less backlog of refined products inventory (Fig. 3), the analysts are still concerned with oversupply, especially when factoring in inventory at sea. Still, recent refinery shutdowns may assist in chipping away at excess distillate inventory (Fig. 4). “Sunoco announced that it would indefinitely idle Eagle Point, New Jersey; while Valero announced in early September that it would extend the Aruba shutdown, continue its Corpus Christi, Texas, coker and FCC shutdown and run other cokers at reduced rates until the coking economics outlook improves,” the report said. Other recent decisions that may help with inventory management include Valero’s decision to permanently close its refinery in Delaware

55 22,000

50 45 Days

kb/d

21,000 20,000

40 35 30

19,000

25

5-yr historical range

2009

2009

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Mar

5-yr historical range

2008

2008

Source: Deutsche Bank, EIA

Source: Deutsche Bank, EIA

US oil product demand. Demand at the end of October was at its lowest level since October 1998.

FIG. 1

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Mar

Jan

Feb

20

18,000

FIG. 3

US distillate inventories appear over-supplied.

100 4,800

95 90

4,400

85 kb/d

%

4,000

80 75

3,600

5-yr historical range

2009

Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

Apr

May

Mar

Mar

Feb

65

Jan

3,200

70

5-yr historical range

2008

Source: Deutsche Bank, EIA

FIG. 4 FIG. 2

US distillate demand for 2009 did not paint a pretty picture.

2009

2008

2007

Source: Deutsche Bank, EIA

When comparing US refining utilization from 2007–2009, it should be noted that recent refinery shutdowns could help the current situation. HYDROCARBON PROCESSING JANUARY 2010

I 15

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5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

Oct-09

May-09

Nov-08

May-08

Dec-07

Jun-07

Jun-06

Dec-06

26 24 22 20 18 % 16 14 12 10

Jan-06

Imports mb/d

HPIMPACT

Imports mb/d (left-hand scale) Imports as % of production (right-hand scale)

7% 9%

26%

11% 3% 8%

EUA exchange EUA OTC cleared EUA OTC Primary CER/ERU Secondary CER exchange Secondary CER OTC cleared Secondary CER OTC Other markets

30%

6%

Source: SG Commodities Research

FIG. 7

World traded carbon volumes in 2008 by market segment.

Source: Deutsche Bank, EIA

5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

US product imports 2006–2009: Imports as a percentage of US product production trended downward in 2009.

Other markets Primary CER/ERU Secondary CER EUA

90 75

Other markets Primary CER Secondary CER EUA

60 45 30 15 0 2006

2007

2008

Source: SG Commodities Research

2006

2007

2008

Source: SG Commodities Research

FIG. 6

105

Total EU ETS and CDM transaction values in € billion

Traded volumes 2006-2008 in MT

FIG. 5

FIG. 8

Total EU ETS and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) transaction values.

Carbon markets traded volumes from 2006–2008.

City, Delaware, and Marathon’s scheduled downtime for early 2010 at its refinery in Garyville, Louisiana.

The EU’s ETS at a glance Carbon trading, carbon taxing and other forms of regulating greenhouse gases have been hot topics of conversation of late. Since it appears that these concepts will be dominating thought and affecting business plans for companies in the HPI into the foreseeable future, it is not a bad idea to examine the most established cap-and-trade system currently in existence, the one marshaled into form by the European Union (EU). The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is basically a commodities market—a market-based policy tool that sets a cap on CO2 emissions from specific sectors. Analysts from Orbeo (www.orbeo.com) have studied the ETS extensively and have been briefing interested parties on their findings. Orbeo reports that ETS sources covered by the program receive (or purchase through auctions) emissions allowances. Flexibility is allowed;

plants can buy and sell allowances on a market according to needs. Carbon offsets and carbon credits are flexibility mechanisms that lower the cost of compliance to cap-and-trade. Carbon credits are generated from emissions-reducing projects and can be used in addition to allowances (generally up to a limit) in a cap and trade program. Emissions of CO2 by industry in Europe are capped by quotas, known as European Union Allowances (EUAs), and handed out at the individual plant level. The CO2 price that emerges reflects the cost of reduction the emissions. Carbon credits are allowed, such as the Certified Emission Reductions (CER) granted by the UN, for emission reductions achieved in emerging countries. The evolution of this price in the future will depend on the industry constraints. Higher emission reduction objectives thus mean a higher CO2 price. Updated EU ETS balances. According to Orbeo, EU ETS emission forecasts should be revised down by 40 Mt for 2009, and overall by 2% to 3% in the following years, to account for slow recovery from the global

recession. CER issuances should stand at 1.3 Gt, which assumes significant acceleration. For 2009, expected issuance volumes sink down to 155 Mt. Orbeo believes the system is still slightly short to 2012 (133 Mt). First implications. It is now confirmed that the EU ETS will exist to 2020 and beyond. Thus, there will be one continuous trading period, with full EUA banking from Phase II (2008–2012) to Phase III (2012 plus) ensured. Orbeo predicts a large increase in auctioned volumes. In Phase III, there will be new rules on auctioning. Utilities will see 100% auctioning from 2013, with exemptions for power plants in countries where more than one-third of power is produced from a single fossil-fuel source and income per capita is less than half of the EU average. Sectors with low carbon leakage risk will see 20% auctioning in 2013 increasing to 70% through 2020, with full auctioning from 2027 onward. Sectors with high carbon leakage risk are to have 100% of allowances distributed for free. This free distribution is based on 10% of the best available technology benchmark in 2007–2008 and should cover 80% to 90% of sector needs. HP HYDROCARBON PROCESSING JANUARY 2010

I 17

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HPINNOVATIONS SELECTED BY HYDROCARBON PROCESSING EDITORS [email protected]

Pressure-relief software awarded first US patent Farris Engineering Services, a business unit of Curtiss-Wright Flow Control Company, has announced that its iPRSM product, claimed to be a revolutionary software for pressure-relief system management, has been awarded a US patent, with a second application approved for award. The product has a unique Web-based design and contains innovative impact analysis capabilities. iPRSM is a multifunctional software package for designing, auditing and documenting the pressure-relieving capability of process systems in the petroleum, petrochemical, hydrocarbon processing, refining and power-generation industries. The software supports process system engineers in maximizing the safety of personnel, processes and facilities; minimizing operational interruptions and losses related to overpressure and documenting changes to pressure relief systems. “By standardizing pressure-relief system design and audit methodology, monitoring pressure conditions and identifying potential problems, iPRSM makes compliance activities efficient for various industries,” says Josh Kolenc, vice president, software engineering. “From a cost perspective, it also reduces the risk of equipment repair, downtime and lost production.” Web-based for system integrity. The patented Web-based product allows iPRSM to be deployed companywide for design and sizing of overpressure equipment, safety and change management, and regulatory documentation. With many users of the product at multiple locations being able to view and work on the process system in real time, iPRSM protects the system’s integrity by preventing the duplication of engineering changes or implementing conflicting changes. When applied to evergreen system design, iPRSM can integrate equipment, instruments, piping and pressure-relief devices across multiple locations to create a protected system. Applied to existing systems, iPRSM creates a centralized engineering drawing/document repository, a pressure-relief database that includes asoperating data from all sites, and a task list for addressing concerns.

Impact analysis tool supports changes. iPRSM’s Impact Analysis Tool allows modeling of code or engineering changes at any stage in the process life cycle, from design through full operation. When asoperating data and the planned alteration to the system configuration are input, iPRSM identifies the protected system and the various relief scenarios that could be affected by that change prior to its implementation. iPRSM can then validate the adequacy of the safety relief system under the new conditions or identify necessary adjustments. “The Impact Analysis Tool, combined with iPRSM’s other capabilities helps ensure that process plants effectively meet the requirements of 29 CFR 1910.119 in a very cost-effective manner,” Kolenc explains. iPRSM also has the capability of recreating previous system conditions that were in effect prior to upgrades or other changes to equipment, flow or pressures. This feature simplifies troubleshooting and assists in documenting the history and sequence of changes to the process system. Select 1 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RS

First software to map the automation genome PAS, a global supplier of Operations and Automation Effectiveness software and services, announces the immediate release of Integrity automation genome software. This unique software maps the automation genome, comprising the databases, programs, displays, and interconnections within and among all automation systems in a plant, including distributed control systems, SCADA systems, safety instrumented systems, data historians, advanced process controls and instrumentation databases. As HP editors, we hear about new products, patents, software, processes, services, etc., that are true industry innovations—a cut above the typical product offerings. This section enables us to highlight these significant developments. For more information from these companies, please go to our Website at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/rs and select the reader service number.

By mapping a plant’s automation genome, Integrity software creates new possibilities for fundamentally transforming the productivity and safety performance of industrial plants. By identifying configuration defects and safety vulnerabilities, costly operational problems can be resolved quickly or avoided entirely. Tracking and historization of configuration changes ensures that the value of automation systems does not deteriorate over time. Users can access Integrity’s vast knowledge base through the graphical interfaces of their existing DCS and historian workstations. Integrity Software also serves as a knowledge retention and collaboration platform that captures implicit knowledge, contextualizes it, and makes it accessible. This ensures that knowledge from experienced personnel is made available to everyone who needs it. Additionally, as e-mail has become a primary means of exchanging significant plant information, Integrity software includes the ability to tag and incorporate important e-mails in the knowledge base. One of the “killer” applications of the new Integrity automation genome software is the Disaster Recovery module that provides a mechanism for automatic backup and archiving of system and database files, documenting restoration procedures, and creating object-to-file associations. In the event of a natural or man-made disaster, it aids in system recovery, restoring corrupted files, or providing the facility to roll back to a point in time. Select 2 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RS

New virtual reality training solution commercially available Invensys Operations Management, a global provider of technology systems, software solutions and consulting services to the process and manufacturing industries, has announced the commercial availability of its new EYESim virtual reality immersive training solution. The first industrial virtual reality training solution based on first-principles simulation and augmented reality, EYESim technology enables engineers and operators to see and safely interact with the plant and the processes they control. HYDROCARBON PROCESSING JANUARY 2010

I 19

HPINNOVATIONS

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Using and applying gaming and other skill sets most familiar to younger employees, the EYESim solution also appeals to employees new to the engineering and plant workplace, as well as experienced engineers. It combines virtual reality technologies with high-fidelity process and control simulation, computer-based maintenance and documentation management, and other applications to provide a highly realistic and safe training environment for improving operating efficiency and skills. Simulations are driven by the company’s DYNSIM high-fidelity process simulator, FSIM Plus software, I/A Series control system emulation and other compatible programs. “The increasing complexity of plants, combined with a changing workforce, demands next-generation tools that can safely and interactively train new operators and engineers without putting them, the community or the environment at risk,” said Tobias Scheele, vice president, advanced applications, Invensys Operations Management. “This system provides a stable, realistic environment for practicing

routine operational and maintenance functions, as well as rarely performed volatile tasks such as plant shutdowns. In addition, using computer models of real equipment allows endless experimentation without ever taking the equipment offline, mitigating risk to production as well.” By merging virtual plant imagery with screens from asset management or other application software, the Invensys solution creates a computer-generated representation of either a real or proposed process plant. Using a stereoscopic headset, trainees enter a completely immersive environment in which they can move throughout the plant. Such freedom is possible because the virtual environment is rendered at 60 frames per second, significantly faster than what can be achieved by traditional, nonreal-time rendering. EYESim technology is geared toward the energy, chemical, oil and gas, and other vital process industries as they face knowledge management, training and retention challenges brought on by an aging and dwindling industry workforce. Select 3 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RS

New capability improves performance Emerson Process Management has integrated machinery protection and prediction of critical mechanical equipment with its DeltaV digital automation system. This new capability directly supports users’ goals for improved availability and performance. As turbomachinery and mechanical equipment condition deteriorates, performance and throughput decrease and unplanned shutdowns become more probable. When plant operators have visibility to the performance of their high-stakes assets, they can make process adjustments and reduce process disruptions. In traditional control systems, integration is complex and expensive, requiring Modbus and system expertise as well as specific machinery knowledge. Typical machinery protection systems can require more than 2,000 steps and up to five days to complete the integration process. With this many steps, network issues, additional testing time and nuisance alarms are easily introduced. The barriers to undertaking integration are prohibitive, even though

2010 was a very Why can we say this already at the beginning of the year?

HPINNOVATIONS the payback from better information for operators is significant. Emerson’s integrated machinery protection and prediction solution, a key component of the PlantWeb digital plant architecture, easily connects to the DeltaV system in three simple steps that take less than 10 minutes. Asset parameters are scanned, selected and imported into the DeltaV system from AMS Suite predictive maintenance software and the CSI 6500 Machinery Health Monitor. After import, the DeltaV alarm banner is automatically populated and the system is fully configured with function blocks that can be further used in control strategies. Integration in the operator interface also includes templates for vibration bar graphs, vibration values and auto highlighters to enable any DeltaV operator graphic to come alive with valuable operator machinery health information. “The benefits of combining process information and machinery health have long been understood, but this is the first time the two have been integrated automatically and so extensively for engineering,

operations and reliability personnel,” said Craig Llewellyn, president of Emerson’s Asset Optimization division. Emerson also provides PlantWeb Services to help users design, install, and implement machinery protection and prediction. With these new capabilities, the DeltaV system provides an integrated solution for process control, process safety, machinery protection and prediction. Select 4 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RS

Asset management expertise creates valuable new capabilities Emerson Process Management and Meridium announced a unique partnership to deliver enhanced asset management capabilities to their customers in the process industries. By combining the power of Emerson’s PlantWeb predictive intelligence with Meridium’s advanced analytics and decision support technology, customers can now more effectively manage and maintain their most critical production assets. Emerson and Meridium have been working together for several months to develop the new AMS Suite: Asset Portal v4.0 powered by

Meridium. The new product provides integration in realtime to other AMS Suite applications to link asset diagnostics with business metrics and key performance indicators. Built upon Meridium’s Asset Performance Management Framework, the AMS Asset Portal v4.0 includes pre-defined analysis, views and reports of AMS Suite information. Powerful query, reporting, and graphing capabilities enable users to perform custom analysis. Select Meridium application modules are also available for use with AMS Asset Portal. These options provide advanced metrics and scorecards, data management collected using handheld devices, and integration with computerized maintenance management systems such as SAP PM and IBM MAXIMO. Also announced was Emerson’s PlantWeb Services offering to cost-effectively design, implement and quantify the business benefits of asset strategies for users. Meridium’s bestpractice deployment models are available as part of the PlantWeb Services offering. The solution extends to mechanical equipment, instruments, control valves, electrical switchgear, process equipment and fixed assets. Select 5 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RS

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HPIN CONSTRUCTION BILLY THINNES, NEWS EDITOR [email protected]

South America BG Group has a joint venture agreement with Petroleo Brasileiro SA focused on developing floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) as an additional option to commercialize the associated natural gas reserves in the Santos Basin offshore Brazil. Under the agreement, FEED contracts will be awarded for a new FLNG vessel. The vessel will operate close to the planned Santos Basin floating production, storage and off-loading (FPSO) vessels. The vessel will process and liquefy the associated natural gas from the pre-salt fields before offloading to LNG ships. The FLNG processing capacity is anticipated to be up to 14 million cubic meters per day of associated gas. The 3 million tpy of LNG produced would be shipped either to Petrobras-operated regasification terminals at Pecém and Guanabara Bay to supply the Brazilian domestic market or exported to other global markets. CB&I has a contract valued in excess of $1.4 billion with Refinería de Cartagena SA (REFICAR) for the engineering, procurement services and construction of a new refinery with processing capacity of 165,000 bpd, adjacent to REFICAR’s refinery in Cartagena, Colombia. CB&I’s scope also includes revamping the existing 80,000-bpd refinery. The overall project aims to relieve regional refining constraints and enable REFICAR to produce ultra-lowsulfur gasoline and diesel from heavy crude. CB&I will provide project management and the engineering, procurement services, fabrication and construction for the new refinery, including the following major components: crude and vacuum distillation; fluid catalytic cracker naphtha hydrotreater; diesel hydrotreater; hydrocracker; hydrogen plant; sulfur plant; delayed coker; and power generation. The project is scheduled for completion in 2012.

Europe ABB has an order worth $26 million from Hellenic Petroleum SA to provide an integrated power and automation system for the upgrade of Hellenic Petroleum’s Elefsina refinery, west of Athens, Greece. ABB will design, supply, install and commission the electrical and automation system to power the

refinery. The turnkey electrical solution aims to strengthen the reliability and quality of power supply to the refinery, while improving energy efficiency and reducing overall electricity consumption and costs. The project is expected to be completed by 2010. ABB will supply medium-voltage equipment including the latest gas-insulated switchgear and air-insulated switchgear. ABB will also install intelligent low-voltage switchgear as well as a fully automated power management and load shedding system based on the company’s automation platform and compatible communication networks. Integrating the electrical and automation system on ABB’s common platform provides additional benefits including reduced maintenance, engineering and overall life-cycle costs. The Shaw Group Inc. has a contract with Petkim Petrochemical Holding AS to provide engineering and procurement services and additional study work for an ethylene plant capacity expansion in Aliaga, Turkey. Shaw built the original 300-ktpy TREND ANALYSIS FORECASTING Hydrocarbon Processing maintains an extensive database of historical HPI project information. Current project activity is published three times a year in the HPI Construction Boxscore. When a project is completed, it is removed from current listings and retained in a database. The database is a 35-year compilation of projects by type, operating company, licensor, engineering/constructor, location, etc. Many companies use the historical data for trending or sales forecasting. The historical information is available in comma-delimited or Excel® and can be custom sorted to suit your needs. The cost of the sort depends on the size and complexity of the sort you request and whether a customized program must be written. You can focus on a narrow request such as the history of a particular type of project or you can obtain the entire 35-year Boxscore database, or portions thereof. Simply send a clear description of the data you need and you will receive a prompt cost quotation. Contact: Lee Nichols P. O. Box 2608 Houston, Texas, 77252-2608 Fax: 713-525-4626 e-mail: [email protected].

plant in 1986 and performed basic engineering for the previous capacity revamp to 520 ktpy in 1999. The new expansion will increase ethylene production capacity by approximately 10%.

Middle East Samsung Engineering has a $2.73 billion contract from Abu Dhabi Oil Refining Co. for utilities and offsite work on the Ruwais refinery expansion project (RRE). Samsung’s work is set for mechanical completion by April 2013 and is expected to supply utilities into the complex to help produce an additional 400,000 barrels of oil. Samsung Engineering will perform engineering, procurement and construction on a lump-sum turnkey basis. The investment for the RRE project exceeds $10 billion, and is to be executed mainly by Korean contractors, including SK E&C and GS E&C. Technip has a lump-sum turnkey EPC contract from Abu Dhabi Gas Industries Ltd. (GASCO) worth approximately $415 million for a project to revamp existing facilities to support an increase in oil production from the new Abu Dhabi Co. for Onshore Oil Operations facilities and accommodate up to 150 million scfd of additional associated gas from the existing Asab, Shah and Sahil oil fields. Technip is responsible for the installation of a new booster compression station, transfer lines, debottlenecking of existing ASAB 0 facilities and diverting feed flow from ASAB 0 to ASAB I/II by installing a new compressor, transfer lines and other associated facilities. This project will be executed by Technip’s operating center in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The first phase will be completed during third quarter 2012 and the remaining phase during second quarter 2013.

Asia-Pacific Shell Chemicals Ltd. recently had a successful startup of its new monoethylene glycol (MEG) unit at the Shell Eastern Petrochemicals complex in Jurong Island, Singapore. The capacity is 750,000 tpy of MEG. The complex also includes a new 800,000tpy ethylene cracker, a butadiene plant and modifications to Shell’s Bukom refinery, which are planned to start up in early 2010. HYDROCARBON PROCESSING JANUARY 2010

I 23

INDUSTRY FORECAST FORUM In early December, Hydrocarbon Processing’s editors and a panel of experts convened a forum to discuss the outlook for the HPI into 2010 and beyond. The forum took place at the Omni Hotel in Houston, Texas, and was thick with audience participation, nuanced positions and well-researched predictions. One of the featured presentations was by Bill Sanderson, president and CEO of Purvin & Gertz. He said that he expects global economic growth to resume, with

his outlook for US GDP growth to increase 2.5% to 3% in 2010. Challenges to this prediction, he said, would be the strength of the dollar and inflation. “We don’t expect to be back to where we were in 2007 until 2011,” Mr. Sanderson said. “We’ve lost several years of growth and it had a significant effect on capacity utilization. Looking forward, we see continued growth in diesel gas oil demand combined with flat petroleum gasoline demand.”

Demand for bottom of the barrel products like residual fuel has been declining for a long time globally because of displacement by natural gas and efficiency improvements. However, Mr. Sanderson noted that bunker fuel for long distance marine travel has increased due to the growth of the global economy which propels the need to ship goods around the world. With that in mind, he said that global bunker fuel growth will offset the decline in residual fuel.

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Prices and margins. Mr. Sanderson stressed an analysis of the feedstock slate to determine future prices and margins. An important part of profitability is the conversion part of the refinery that converts resids from heavy products to light products. “We’ve got ourselves into a situation where the difference between light and heavy products is quite narrow. The reverse will happen when we have to increase production. That incremental production increase will be the heavier grades of crude oil,” Mr. Sanderson said. Rounding out his remarks, Mr. Sanderson reiterated that recovery starts in 2010, with Asia leading the way. He also said to expect increased production from OPEC and refinery closures in US and Europe. The specter of closure looms large especially for weaker facilities. In short, margins will recover for refiners but 2010 will be a tough year. Other featured speakers at the forum included Kimberly Bowers of Valero, Michaela Greenan of Ernst & Young and Pierre Latour of Clifftent, Inc. Hydrocarbon Processing’s editors also revealed research from the HPI 2010 Market Data Book (to order, visit www.gulfpub.com). For more in depth profiles of each speaker’s remarks and pictures from the event, please visit our blog at www.hydrocarbonprocessing. com/hpinformer. HP

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR [email protected]

Advocating the abandonment of MPC Regarding Zak Friedman’s three “HPIn Control” columns on APC designs for minimum maintenance in the June (p. 90), July (p. 13) and August (p. 13) 2009 issues of Hydrocarbon Processing, I fully agree with Mr. Friedman’s suggestions to prune multivariable controller (MPC) matrices in order to mitigate maintenance and operations difficulties. In many cases, I would go a step further and consider abandoning the MPC altogether in favor of revisiting what can be accomplished with well-designed DCS-level regulatory controls. In a surprising number of cases, this will result in more optimal and robust performance, while the demands of MPC go away altogether. This may sound like strong medicine to the MPC generation, but, in my opinion, the downside of MPC over the past 20 years has gone greatly under-reported. In recent years, concerns are finding voice regarding “maintenance” and “sustainability” issues, but a closer look will often reveal that many MPC applications have been problematic all along, not withstanding the great tradition of “successful” project completion rituals. Typical distillation column regulatory controls are well depicted by Mr. Friedman’s Fig. 1 (July issue), with the addition of a

steam-to-feed ratio control, a high-pressure safety override and replacement of the top temperature controller with a pressure-compensated temperature or a more sophisticated inferential where warranted. This fundamental configuration is often rearranged to fit the particular column, but overall it is a good starting point, and often a finishing point, for many column control designs. MPC, whether spartan, as Mr. Friedman recommends, or fully dandified, as is the industry norm, has little if anything more to contribute, except expense and operational complexity. Utilizing column pressure as an MV is a good example of something MPC designers habitually do, but which rarely works in practice. Pressure is not a suitable handle for composition control. I agree with its viability on paper, but in practice I’ve never met a process engineer or operator who agreed with throttling pressure like a valve for composition control. Column pressure is best kept constant to preserve the composition profile on which the other controls depend. At most, pressure can float gradually on the overhead condenser to capture the benefits of minimized pressure or gracefully handle a cooling limitation. Also, pressure should normally override reboiler heat on high column pressure, with a setting typically 5–10 PSIG above the regulatory setpoint

Correction There were two mistakes on page 44 of the November 2009 article, “Avoid confusion when performing safety integrity levels.” The correct Fig. 1 is shown here. Also, the subheading “Methodology No. 1” should have referred to the information in Table 3. Hydrocarbon Processing regrets the errors. Air intake filter

ATM

Plant shutdown ATM

Load/unload PSV

Vibration monitoring system

Local control panel (LCP)

air distribution network

PT

Trip Trip

Author’s response Mr. Kern has a valid point about the balance between APC complexity, maintainability and potential versus real benefits. The quest to simplify APC should also consider what can be done by advanced regulatory control. When the application dynamics and constraints are simple, advanced regulatory control can deliver benefits. It is important to remember, however, that when an application has multiple constraints and complex dynamics, implementing it in the DCS does not make it simple and maintainable. Simplify the problem definition first, and then choose the appropriate application platform.

Air dryer

Y. Zak Friedman

PCV Air receiver

Blow off valve Cooler

Hydrocarbon Processing welcomes and encourages feedback from its readers. Send your comments to:

Hydrocarbon Processing

M Scrubber FIG. 1

Allan G. Kern, P. E.

PSLL To instrument

Alarm

XT XE

and below any safety function setting. All of this is inherent in conventionally configured regulatory controls, including smooth response to saturated reflux or pressure control valves. No MPC required. While MPC remains a sound and often tantalizing technology in principle, its practical applicability and rate of success is not nearly what popular wisdom might have you believe. I would hazard a guess that only 10–20% of all MPCs are earning money by doing something regulatory controls can’t do better, and that means a whole lot of unnecessary MPC activity is going on. The best thing many companies can do for their process control budget, especially in these lean times, is to prune whole MPCs, not individual models, and to re-allocate the liberated resources to DCS-level work, an area that has received altogether too much lip service throughout the MPC era.

Compressor package diagram.

Attention: Letters to the editor P.O. Box 2608 Houston, Texas 77046 [email protected]

HYDROCARBON PROCESSING JANUARY 2010

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