guess estimates

Question: ) Estimate the sales of Maruti Swift Dzire in 2012-13. Answer :- ) Total population of India = 120 crore PAN India average number of cars every household has = 0.10 Therefore total cars in India = 1.2 crore Say out of these total cars in India 10% were sold in 2011 -12 therefore total sales in 2011 -12 = 12 lakh cars But due to day to day increase in Petrol Prices and High Interest rates say the total number of cars expected to be sold in 2012 - 13 will be less by 5% Therefore total cars to be sold in 2012 - 13 = 11.4 lakh new cars in all segments Now Maruti has a market share of close to 40% combining all segments. Therefore total Maruti cars on road in 2012 -13 will be 40% of 11.4 lakh cars = 4.56 lakh cars After Alto , Wagon R and Swift Dzire is most sold car by maruti Dzire = 15% of all maruti sold are Dzire = approx 68 thousand cars

Question ) Suppose u have a client and he is in bat making business. He wants to estimate the size of industry or business that he can get.... ? Answer ) To consider this industry following approach comes to my mind: If we talk about PAN India then total population of India is say 120 crore. we will divide India into 4 Zones North = Population of 20 crores say 0.10% plays cricket which includes all type of cricket means pro and for fun and of all age categories. therefore total cricket playing population = 2,00,000 Say on an average every person has .5 bats therefore total bats = 1,00,000 East = Population of 40 crores Say 0.05% plays cricket therefore total cricket playing population = 2,00,000 Say on an average every person has .25 bats therefor total bats = 50,000

West = Population of 30 crores 0.15% plays cricket therefore total cricket playing population = 4,50,000 Say on an average every person has .5 bats therefore total bats = 2,25,000

South = Population of 30 crores 0.10% plays cricket therefore total cricket playing population = 300000 Say on an average every person has .5 bats therefore total bats = 1,50,000 total bats to be manufactured in India in 2012 = 5,25,000 Say average price of bat in India = Rs. 1500 Therefore total Industry = Rs. 787500000

How much Rs. should be put into an ATM so that it lasts for at least a week? Answer ) We are picking an ATM from one of the busiest locations in New Delhi - CP. Now the first estimate is that ATM is open for 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. Now we divide entire day into 3 blocks as per the number of visitors visiting the ATM. FIrst we are thinking about visitors only. NowBlock 1 - 1 visitor every 2 minute for 10 hrs = 300 visitors Block 2 - 1 visitor every 5 minute for 6 hrs = 72 visitors Block 3 - 1 visitor every 10 minutes 8 hrs = 48 visitors therefore total footfall is of 420 visitorsNow say 20% of these are there just for balance enquiry or there account has insufficient balance so no money is dispensed therefore 420 - 84 = 336 visitorsNow think on an average every person withdraws 1000Rs. therefore total amount withdrawn in entire day will be 336*1000 = 336000Rs.Now bank can insert either 3360 notes of 100 each 672 notes of 500 each 336 notes of 1000 eachNote : - again this is just an approach. You can play with numbers if you wis

take the example of an ATM in a big mall like great India Place, Noida. The number of footfalls in the entire day has been estimated to be 10,000 on Weekdays and 15,000 on weekends. Say, only 20% of people actually buy stuff and rest are either tag-alongs or window-shopeers or didn't find what they were looking for. 2000 Out of them only about 10% people would need extra cash which would require the to use an ATM. This leaves us with 200 people. This would also include people who did not have a preplanned agenda and therefore, did not have money in advance. If there are six ATMs in the building, with preference of ATMs related to the banks, only 16.66% people out of 200 would use our particular ATM. So, only 33 people would use that ATM. Assuming an average transaction of Rs. 3000 considering that items in malls are costly and people would be carrying cash upto Rs. 1000. This adds upto to approx 5 lakh rupees for five days. For weekends, this comes out to be 3 lakh rupees for the weekend. This brings the total upto: 8 lakh rupees

How many weddings are performed each day in Japan? Try a ground-up approach. In a city of 1 million (Kyoto), how many people are of marriageable age? Let's say 750,000. How many get married in a given year? Maybe 2 percent? That's 15,000. Now, the population of Japan is about 200 million, so multiply 15,000 by 200 - and you get 300,000 weddings every year. Divide that by 365 and you get 822 weddings per day (on the average, though clearly some days are more popular than others). To estimate this in your head, you could divide 300,000 by 3,000 (getting 1,000), then take off another fifth. Around 800 would be close. To summarize: 1 million people in Kyoto 750,000 of marriageable age 2 percent get married in the average year 750,000 x 0.02 = 15,000 marriages every year in Kyoto 200 million people in Japan 200 x 15,000 = 300,000 weddings per year 300,000/365 = 822 weddings per day (or approximately 800) How would you estimate the weight of the Chrysler building? This is a process guesstimate - the interviewer wants to know if you know what questions to ask. First, you would find out the dimensions of the building (height, weight, depth). This will allow you to determine the volume of the building. Does it taper at the top? (Yes.) Then, you need to estimate the composition of the Chrysler building. Is it mostly steel? Concrete? How much would those components weigh per square inch? Remember the extra step - find out whether you're considering the building totally empty or with office furniture, people, etc? (If you're including the contents, you might have to add 20 percent or so to the building's weight.) ~How many children are born every day in the United States? Population of United States: 300 million (approximately). Half are women (150 million). Perhaps half of those are of childbearing age. How do you determine how many women are pregnant at any given time? Well: Let's say the average span of childbearing for a woman is 40 years The average woman has two children So a woman is pregnant one year in 20, or 5 percent of the time

3.75 million women are pregnant every year So divide by 365 - you get about 10,000 babies a day (actually, 10,273) Do the extra step - round up for multiple births, so maybe 12,000 How much change would you find on the floor of an average mall? This seemingly silly guesstimate was received by a job seeker at McKinsey. It's an example of a guesstimate that is also a way to test candidate's "out-of-the-box" thinking. First, estimate how many stores there are in the average mall - say, 50. Now, how many people enter the average store on the average day? A thousand? So if there are 50,000 visitors to a mall daily, how many lose change? If one in 50, say, drops money (1,000 people a day), how much is the average loss of change? Most amounts are probably small. People carry fewer quarters, for example, and are more likely to retrieve them. So let's say that if a person is equally likely to drop a penny, nickel, or dime, then the average person who loses change loses a nickel. That means there would be $500 worth of change on the average floor. If half of that change has been picked up immediately, that would be $250 worth of change. Also ask: Is there a fountain in the mall? If a fountain is considered to be the "floor" of the mall, the amount of change would obviously increase.~How many bottles of wine are consumed in the United States each week? Determine: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

The number of people in the United States The number of adults The number of wine drinkers Average number of glasses of wine consumed per wee. Number of glasses of wine in an average bottle (Extra step: You may wish to estimate how much wine is used for non-drinking purposes - cooking, for example. Also clarify whether the interviewer is speaking of standard-sized bottle of wine.) You could reasonably make the following assumptions:

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There are about 300 million people in the United States: 250 million are adults Perhaps 220 million drink alcohol 200 million drink wine The average wine drinker drinks two glasses of wine a week, 400 million glasses of wine consumers per week About five glasses of wine in the average bottle 80 million bottles of wine consumed in America each week

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Estimate how many bottles wine is used for cooking - perhaps another 5 million 85 million bottles of wine consumed per week